Abstract
Southern Africa has experienced multiple occurrences of drought episodes, which is projected to persist in the future, considering all climate scenarios. Despite the documented change in a meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought situation in the region, few studies are yet to explore the changes in flash drought (hereafter; FD), which is characterized by a rapid reduction in root-zone soil moisture and more substantial intensification in few days to weeks. Here, we analyze the observed FD and related underlying drivers during the past 34 years. Also, we estimate the future changes in FD using the severity-duration magnitude matrix under the middle of the road (SSP2-4.5) and business as usual (SSP5-8.5), scenario. Lastly, the study investigates the role of anthropogenic warming using the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) approach and possible bivariate return periods of FD events. Our results demonstrate that the region has experienced multiple occurrences up to 72 pentads from 1980 to 2014. Underlying mechanisms revealed the compounding influence of Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD), Potential Evapotranspiration (PET), and precipitation deficit that have a significant impact on the abrupt onset and rapid intensification of FD events and other hot extremes over the SAF region. Under a high emission scenario, the region will experience FD duration lasting for 30 days with >40 % severity projected to impact the region. Anthropogenic climate change and land use and land cover changes remain the most dominant drivers altering the FD events over the SAF region. The return period of FD events under the SSP5-8.5 scenario shows that the SAF region will witness multiple FD events of up to 80 pentads in the far future. These findings reinforce the need to limit the emission of greenhouse gases. Sustained warming of the climate will exacerbate the extreme events and other compounding factors, thus affecting the livelihoods of humans and life-supporting strata.
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