Anthropogenic Climate Change Research Articles

Urology on a changing planet: links between climate change and urological disease.

Urological diseases and their varied forms of management warrant special attention in the setting of climate change. Regarding urological cancers, climate change will probably increase the incidence and severity of cancer diagnoses through exposures to certain environmental risk factors, while simultaneously disrupting cancer care delivery and downstream outcomes. Regarding benign urological diseases, a burgeoning body of work exists on climate-related heat waves, dehydration, urolithiasis, renal injury and infectious and vector-borne diseases. Adding to the potential effect on disease pathogenesis, many patients with urological diseases undergo high-tech, resource-intensive interventions, such as robotic surgery, and entail intensive longitudinal assessments over many years. These features incur a considerable carbon footprint, generate substantial waste, and can introduce vulnerabilities to climate-related weather events. Links exist between planetary health (the health of humans and the natural systems that support our health), climate change and urological disease and urological care providers face many challenges in the era of anthropogenic climate change. The next steps and priorities for research, management, and health care delivery include identification and prioritization of health care delivery strategies to minimize waste and carbon emissions, while supporting climate resilience. Examples include supporting telemedicine, limiting low-value care, and building resilience to minimize impacts of climate-related disasters to prepare for the challenges ahead.

Natural variability masks climate change sea surface temperature signals: a comparison between the Baltic Sea, North Sea and North Atlantic Ocean

Climate variability in marine environments, particularly sea surface temperature (SST), is influenced by natural fluctuations occurring at various temporal and spatial scales. Distinguishing between anthropogenic climate change trends and natural variability is crucial for understanding the complex dynamics of ocean temperatures. This study applies the concept of Time of Emergence (ToE) to estimate when the signal of long-term climate change becomes distinguishable from natural variability in SST for different seasons. The study focuses on the North Sea, Baltic Sea, and North Atlantic Ocean, utilizing 30 ensemble members of simulation from a regional climate model system, MPIOM-REMO, with slightly different initial conditions. The results reveal that winter ToEs emerge earlier than summer ToEs in all study areas, mainly driven by larger winter SST changes and show that shallow coastal seas like the North and Baltic Seas experience earlier ToEs than the deep central North Atlantic. These findings emphasize the influence of regional processes, such as sea ice dynamics and changes in stratification, on the spatial and temporal variability of ToE patterns.

Influence of precipitation and temperature variability on anthropogenic nutrient inputs in a river watershed: Implications for environmental management.

Since the Industrial Revolution, anthropogenic activities have substantially increased the input of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) into river watersheds, exacerbated by uncertainties stemming from climate change. This study provided a detailed analysis of N and P inputs within the Dawen River Watershed in China from 2000 to 2021. The Net Anthropogenic Nitrogen Input (NANI) and Net Anthropogenic Phosphorus Input (NAPI) methods were used in study, which aimed to investigate how they respond to various climate change factors. Our findings reveal a generally decreasing trend in NANI, with an average of 17,882.34kg/km2/yr. NAPI showed an initially increasing and then decreasing trend, with an average value of 5151.79kg/km2/yr. Fertilizer usage emerged as the primary sources of nutrient inputs, accounting for approximately 63.42% of N and 61.88% of P inputs. Precipitation positively impacted the NANI and NAPI while temperature exerted more influential but opposing effects. Lag effects were evident as demonstrated by the stronger impacts of temperature in preceding year on NANI and NAPI. Moreover, climate not only influenced the quantity of NANI and NAPI but also impacted their changes, as well as the inputs of their components. Through quantitative analyses, we unveiled key thresholds in the correlation between nutrient inputs and climate variables, with cutoffs of 14.1°C in temperature and 820mm in precipitation. Our study highlights the complex relationships between anthropogenic nutrient inputs and climate change, and identifies critical climate thresholds that underscore the importance of sustainable management practices in the Dawen River Watershed to mitigate negative environmental impacts.

Recent extreme cold waves are likely not to happen again this century

Abstract As the climate warms, cold waves are expected to become less intense and less frequent. Is there still a risk of reliving events comparable to the most intense cold spells we can remember? We analyze four remarkable cold spells that have occurred since 2010 in different regions: Western Europe, Texas, China, Brazil. We show that all these recent events have a moderate to high probability of not happening again by 2100 – typically 50% to 90% in an intermediate emissions scenario, depending on the event. The probabilities are even higher for iconic events of the 20th century or earlier. Our results suggest that the most intense cold snaps, and their associated icy landscapes in mid-latitude regions, are disappearing or have already disappeared due to anthropogenic climate change.

Elucidating diverse population exposure to compound drought and heatwave events from two meteorological drought indices (SPI and SPEI)

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change has significantly exacerbated the frequency and severity of Compound Drought and Heatwave (CDHW) events, increasing risks such as water shortages, wildfires, and heat-related mortality. Previous studies often use singular drought indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) or the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). This study quantifies population exposure to CDHW events using both SPI and SPEI, based on data from six General Circulation Models (GCMs) under four future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). Exposure is defined as the product of CDHW Magnitude (℃) and the population in each region (million people), providing a quantitative measure of how CDHW events affect populations. The role of potential evapotranspiration (PET) in CDHW population exposure projections is examined by comparing SPI, which considers only precipitation, with SPEI, which accounts for both precipitation and PET in drought measurements. Results show that after 2050, CDHW Magnitude population exposure diverges significantly across scenarios, with SSP3-7.0 exhibiting the largest increase, reaching 0.72 (SPI) and 1.78 (SPEI) million person-℃ by the end of the century. Regions such as Western Africa (WAF), Southeastern Africa (SEAF), and South Asia (SAS) experience the largest increases in population exposure under SSP3-7.0 with SPEI, reaching 6.93, 6.77, and 5.56 million person-℃, respectively. Additionally, regions like Western & Central Europe (WCE), the Mediterranean (MED), WAF, Western Central Africa (WCA), Eastern Asia (EAS), and SAS display heightened sensitivity to PET, with discrepancies between SPEI and SPI projections exceeding 1 million person-℃. Attribution analysis reveals that climate change, particularly when drought is calculated using PET by SPEI, is the primary factor, followed by interaction change and population change. These findings emphasize the critical role of PET in CDHW projections and the need for region-specific adaptation strategies to manage escalating risks in highly vulnerable areas.

Association of extreme heat events with sleep and cardiovascular health: a scoping review

BackgroundExtreme heat events (EHEs), driven by anthropogenic climate change, exacerbate the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), although the underlying mechanisms are unclear. A possible mechanism leading to heat-related CVD is disturbances in sleep health, which can increase the risk of hypertension, and is associated with ideal cardiovascular health. Thus, our objective was to systematically review the peer-reviewed literature that describes the relationship between EHEs, sleep health, and cardiovascular measures and outcomes and narratively describe methodologies, evidence, and gaps in this area in order to develop a future research agenda linking sleep health, EHEs, and CVD.MethodsA comprehensive literature search was performed in the following databases from inception–June 2023: Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library. Studies retrieved were then screened for eligibility against predefined inclusion/exclusion criteria. Then studies were described qualitatively in relation to study design, findings, and the evidence linking the relationship between sleep health, EHEs, and CVD.ResultsOf the 2035 records screened, only three studies met the inclusion criteria. In these three studies, EHE was measured as absolute temperatures (greater than 30 °C) or relative temperatures (i.e., 90th percentile daily maximum temperature within the region). Cardiovascular (CV) measures described included blood pressure (BP), heart rate (HR), and HR variability (no CVD outcomes were described), and objective and subjective measurements of sleep health outcomes included sleep duration, calmness, ease of falling asleep, ease of awakening, freshness after awakening, and sleep satisfaction. Two studies were controlled trials, and one was a cohort study. During EHEs, individuals slept for shorter periods of time and less efficiently, with greater degrees of HR variability in two of the three studies lasting at most 1–2 days; BP (both systolic and diastolic) significantly decreased during EHEs in two of the studies. No formal assessment of a mediating relationship between EHE exposure, sleep outcomes, and CV measures was undertaken.ConclusionsFew studies examine the link between CVD, sleep, and extreme heat as a possible mechanism of elevated CVD risk during EHEs, despite a strong physiological rationale. Our findings highlight an important gap in the literature that should be closely examined as EHEs become more frequent and their harmful impacts of health increase.

Assessing the potential effects of climate change on the morphodynamics of the tropical coral reef islands in the Gulf of Mannar, Indian Ocean.

Low-lying and small tropical coral reef islands around the world are extremely vulnerable to the effects of global environmental change caused by the combination of anthropogenic climate change and escalating extreme hydrodynamic events. Erosion and inundation are anticipated to physically destabilize the tropical coral reef islands, rendering them uninhabitable within the next century. Therefore, it is crucial to assess the repercussions of these hazardous events on the delicate reef island ecosystem in order to conserve and ensure sustainable management. Multitemporal remotely sensed Landsat satellite imageries were utilized to investigate the net and decadal morphological transformation of tropical coral reef islands in the Gulf of Mannar, Indian Ocean. Over the past half-century, these islands have consistently adapted to global environmental changes, even while local sea levels rise at a rate of 3.38mm per year. Advanced statistical techniques, such as net shoreline movement (NSM), end point rate (EPR), and linear regression rate (LRR), were employed for estimating the shoreline change rate using a Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS). In addition, the GIS-based overlay analysis methods were applied to examine the net and decadal areal (planform) changes and also utilized for estimating the inundation trajectories of reef islands under the sea level rise scenarios of 1m and 2m. Furthermore, time series analysis was performed to analyze the variability of critical climate-induced factors using archived reanalysis oceanographic data. In addition, linear and polynomial statistical techniques were applied to investigate the driving factors behind the coral reef island morphological transition. The findings show that two islands have already disappeared, while others have experienced a dramatic reduction in their footprint. Approximately 62.64% of the shoreline experienced significant erosion, while 36.91% witnessed gradual accretion. The Tuticorin group confronted the severe reduction in island footprint, with a significant decrease of 83.04%, followed by Keelakarai groups (33.35%), Mandapam groups (29.60%), Vembar groups (28.14%), and Rameswaram islands (3.43%). The study also predicts that the island footprint could submerge in an area of 627.30ha and 1284.21ha within the next century, with an expected sea level rise (SLR) of 1m and 2m, respectively. The study emphasizes that the combination of human-induced factors and regional coastal processes such as sea level rise and swells are the key drivers engendering the stress on the physical resilience of the coral reef islands. Urgent and continual monitoring of the reef islands is crucial for a better understanding of their dynamic trajectories and for developing nature-based solutions to catastrophic erosion. These nature-based solutions (NbS) for minimizing island erosion are initiatives that use natural ecosystems to safeguard islands while enhancing biodiversity, climate resilience, and community livelihoods. The interactions between nature-based solutions (NbS) for combating erosion, reef island resilience, and Sustainable Development Goals are evaluated based on the positive correlation, our expert knowledge, and Griggs et al.'s 2017 seven-point scale framework. The outcomes of this study may provide comprehensive insights to decision-makers and administrators for formulating and implementing policies for long-term resilience building and sustainable island management.

Are We Adequately Promoting Climate Change Adaptation to Address the Increasing Heatwaves Affecting the Elderly?

Abstract Australia is a significant hotspot for heatwaves due to its geographical location and pronounced climatic variability, and heatwave exposure is expected to further increase in the future with anthropogenic climate change. With the intent to support United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 3 (Good health and well-being) and 13 (Climate action), in this study we identified key challenges and opportunities for adapting to heatwaves, focusing on the most vulnerable members of our community—older adults. A naturalistic, qualitative approach was selected for this study. Data were collected via semistructured interviews. Key insights were captured through a series of semistructured interviews with key informants from local government agencies and community groups that provide care for older adults in New South Wales, Australia. Questions centered around current preventative measures adopted by the organization regarding heatwaves, level of heatwave knowledge of local residents, and common effects of heatwaves in the local community. The findings highlight four primary challenges: (1) increasing duration and intensity of heatwaves; (2) lack of knowledge among older adults regarding symptoms and the effect on the body; (3) the financial and social impacts of heatwaves; and (4) inadequate urban planning practices and building codes including the need for the creation of cool and green spaces. This study provides important insights for protecting our most vulnerable populations from the growing threat of heatwaves.

Imperatives and co-benefits of research into climate change and neurological disease.

Evidence suggests that anthropogenic climate change is accelerating and is affecting human health globally. Despite urgent calls to address health effects in the context of the additional challenges of environmental degradation, biodiversity loss and ageing populations, the effects of climate change on specific health conditions are still poorly understood. Neurological diseases contribute substantially to the global burden of disease, and the possible direct and indirect consequences of climate change for people with these conditions are a cause for concern. Unaccustomed temperature extremes can impair the systems of resilience of the brain, thereby exacerbating or increasing susceptibility to neurological disease. In this Perspective, we explore how changing weather patterns resulting from climate change affect sleep - an essential restorative human brain activity, the quality of which is important for people with neurological diseases. We also consider the pervasive and complex influences of climate change on two common neurological conditions: stroke and epilepsy. We highlight the urgent need for research into the mechanisms underlying the effects of climate change on the brain in health and disease. We also discuss how neurologists can respond constructively to the climate crisis by raising awareness and promoting mitigation measures and research - actions that will bring widespread co-benefits.

Angola Prison’s Black Ecologies

This article fuses ethnography, spatial analysis, interviews, and archival research to explore the ways that people incarcerated at the Louisiana State Penitentiary (LSP) experience the uneven impacts of anthropogenic climate change. LSP, more commonly known as Angola Prison, is the largest maximum-security prison in the United States. The prison population is majority Black, and most of the people incarcerated at Angola will spend the majority of their lives imprisoned there. Angola was established post-Civil War with the consolidation of four plantations in northern Louisiana into a prison farm, built and maintained by the same regimes of forced labor, torture, sexual violence, and authoritarianism as the plantations which preceded it. Angola has always been a lucrative site of agricultural production due to its proximity to the floodplain at a bend in the Mississippi, the product of its rich soils routinely replenished by the river’s deluging of the land. However, anthropogenic climate change has increased the level of inundation in the lower Mississippi Delta, leading to an increase in catastrophic flooding in the region. The prison has been evacuated several times over the past 20 years due to flooding, leading to the deaths of several elderly inmates and intensified regimes of forced labor as inmates are forced to work harder every year to maintain a failing levee system. This essay utilizes a Black Ecologies framework to explore not only the lived experiences of people enduring the effects of these climate disasters while incarcerated but also the important political and intellectual contributions made by Angola’s prisoners since the mid-19th century. A Black Ecologies framework elucidates how, despite unlivable conditions, inmates at Angola have provided crucial critiques of the prison industrial complex that crystallize an emergent form of authoritarianism that articulates itself at the convergence of anthropogenic climate change, racial capitalism, and incarceration. Angola’s carceral ecologies have key implications for environmental justice scholarship, and this article argues that the lived experiences and political critiques of incarcerated people must become integrated into contemporary environmental justice struggles.

Chronic and infectious respiratory mortality and short-term exposures to four types of pollen taxa in older adults in Michigan, 2006-2017

IntroductionLevels of plant-based aeroallergens are rising as growing seasons lengthen and intensify with anthropogenic climate change. Increased exposure to pollens could increase risk for mortality from respiratory causes, particularly among older adults. We determined short-term, lag associations of four species classes of pollen (ragweed, deciduous trees, grass pollen and evergreen trees) with respiratory mortality (all cause, chronic and infectious related) in Michigan, USA.MethodsWe obtained records for all Michigan deaths from 2006-2017 from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS). Deaths from infectious and chronic respiratory-related causes were selected using International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) codes. Pollen data were obtained from a prognostic model of daily pollen concentrations at 25 km resolution. Case-crossover models with distributed lag non-linear crossbases for pollen were used to estimate associations between lags of daily pollen concentrations with mortality and to explore effect modification by sex and racial groups.Results127,163 deaths were included in the study. Cumulative daily high concentrations (90th percentile) of deciduous broadleaf, grass and ragweed were associated with all-cause respiratory mortality at early lags with e.g., a 1.81 times higher risk of all respiratory deaths at cumulative 7 day lag exposure to deciduous broadleaf pollen at the 90th percentile (95% confidence interval: 1.04, 3.15). Exposure to high concentrations of grass and ragweed pollens was associated with increased risk for death from chronic respiratory causes. No association was found for any pollen species with death from infectious respiratory causes though there was a positive but non-significant association of exposure to deciduous broadleaf and ragweed pollens. We found no evidence to suggest effect modification by race or sex.ConclusionsModelled exposures to high concentrations of pollen taxa were associated with increased all-cause and chronic respiratory mortality among older adults. Results suggest that pollen exposure may become more important to respiratory mortality as the temperatures increase and pollen seasons lengthen.

Eco-anxiety, climate change and the ‘bottom billion’: a plea for better understanding

Climate change poses enormous, rapidly increasing risks to human well-being that remain poorly appreciated. The growing understanding of this threat has generated a phenomenon often called ‘eco-anxiety’. Eco-anxiety (and its...

Channel Incising and Sandbar Growth in the Upper Yangtze River Estuary During 1994–2019, China

Anthropogenic activities and climate change have increased the stress on the world’s estuaries over the past decades. Limited knowledge exists about how estuarine receding responds to human interference, particularly the geomorphic dynamics of channels and sandbars. Here, we evaluate the topographic evolution of the upper Yangtze River Estuary (YRE), the largest branch reach with frequently shifting sandbars, from 1994 to 2019. Our results show that a net channel erosion of 9.59 × 108 m3 occurred in the upper YRE, equivalent to an annual erosion depth of 8.67 cm. On the contrary, sandbars with a large area increased from 47.68 km2 to 70.88 km2, showing the opposite development of estuarine channels. Reduced riverine sediment supply may have been responsible for the estuarine channel erosion, and river engineering may have contributed to intense erosion in local areas. Also, the engineering projects were likely the main reason for the stability and growth of the sandbars. This study reveals the branching channel–sandbar system of the upper YRE in response to anthropogenic and climatic change forcing. The knowledge gained from this study can be applied to other similar estuarine systems around the world, helping develop sustainable strategies for the utilization and protection of the world’s estuaries and deltas.

Attribution of a record-breaking cold event in the historically warmest year of 2023 and assessing future risks

An unexpected record-breaking cold event struck eastern China in December 2023, causing widespread transportation shutdowns, power supply shortages, and agricultural crop damage. The manner in which such an extraordinary cold event was formed under global warming is unclear, as is the way in which anthropogenic climate change may affect the present and future frequency and intensity of similar cold events. Here, we show that the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with the warm Arctic was the main event driver, explaining 83 ± 2% of the intensity of the 2023 cold event, whereas the thermodynamic effect of climate change suppressed the event intensity by −6 ± 3% in ERA5 and −22 ± 2% in HadGEM3-A-N216. An attribution analysis based on coupled model simulations shows that, due to anthropogenic climate change, the frequency and intensity of 2023-like events decrease by 92.5 ± 2.5% and 1.9 ± 0.2 °C, respectively, under the 2023 climate state. The thermodynamic effect of anthropogenic climate change outweighs its dynamic effect. Future projections indicate that the frequency and intensity of these 2023-like events will further decrease by 95 ± 3% and 2.05 ± 0.25 °C by the end of this century under an intermediate-emissions scenario compared with estimates made under the present climate. In contrast, 2023-like events will be similar to present events when the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement is achieved. These findings highlight the dampening effect of anthropogenic climate change on cold events, but adaptation measures for future risks of 2023-like cold events will be needed by the end of the century if carbon neutrality is achieved.

‘We are of One Ecology’: How Indigenous Pacific Islander Poetics Map Anthropogenic Climate Change

ABSTRACT While activists, scientists and even politicians have sounded the alarm regarding anthropocentrically-fueled climate change for decades, there is still cause for hope. Indigenous peoples, particularly coastal peoples, have been engaging with the effects of climate change and working to mitigate them for decades, often using traditional ecological knowledge, or TEK. Kyle Powys Whyte, Zoe Todd and other Indigenous scholars working in the environmental sciences, environmental humanities and Indigenous studies more broadly have explored and documented how various Indigenous communities are refusing displacement from this latest crisis caused by colonization. This essay examines the work of several Indigenous Pacific Islander poets whose experiences as both Indigenous peoples and island dwellers provide unique and important insights into the ongoing discussions of anthropogenic climate change. Craig Santos Perez (CHamoru), No‘u Revilla (Kanaka ʻŌiwi [Hawaiian]), Kathy Jetnñil-Kijiner (Marshallese) and Brandy Nālani McDougall (Kanaka ʻŌiwi [Hawaiian]), who live and write from the Pacific Islands explore climate change both as a global event and as the result of a long line of ecological violences that have exploited Indigenous peoples and their lands. Yet, their poems often highlight how kinships with one another and the environment can provide hope in this time of seeming hopelessness.

Mitigating anthropogenic climate change with aqueous green energy

Reaching net zero emissions and limiting global warming to 2 °C requires the widespread introduction of technology-based solutions to draw down existing atmospheric levels and future emissions of CO2. One such approach is direct air CO2 capture and storage (DACCS), a readily available, yet energy-intensive process. The combination of DACCS and ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) allows for independently powered carbon capture plants to inject concentrated carbon into deep marine sediments where storage is generally safe and permanent. OTEC is a form of electricity production that exploits the temperature difference between deep and shallow ocean waters, and can power DACCS on floating platforms at a price competitive with coal-generated electricity. Here we highlight the scale of the challenge facing society. We show that a safe and sustainable level of OTEC-generated electricity powering DACCS for 70 years could result in up to a 35% decrease in the relative global mean temperature warming compared to a business-as-usual emissions scenario.

“Exceptional” Global Warming Spike Continued in 2024

More than 3 billion people experienced their hottest year ever in 2024 because of anthropogenic climate change. The world is speeding toward its 1.5�C warming target.

Clustered warming tolerances and the nonlinear risks of biodiversity loss on a warming planet.

Anthropogenic climate change is projected to become a major driver of biodiversity loss, destabilizing the ecosystems on which human society depends. As the planet rapidly warms, the disruption of ecological interactions among populations, species and their environment, will likely drive positive feedback loops, accelerating the pace and magnitude of biodiversity losses. We propose that, even without invoking such amplifying feedback, biodiversity loss should increase nonlinearly with warming because of the non-uniform distribution of biodiversity. Whether these non-uniformities are the uneven distribution of populations across a species' thermal niche, or the uneven distribution of thermal niche limits among species within an ecological community, we show that in both cases, the resulting clustering in population warming tolerances drives nonlinear increases in the risk to biodiversity. We discuss how fundamental constraints on species' physiologies and geographical distributions give rise to clustered warming tolerances, and how population responses to changing climates could variously temper, delay or intensify nonlinear dynamics. We argue that nonlinear increases in risks to biodiversity should be the null expectation under warming, and highlight the empirical research needed to understand the causes, commonness and consequences of clustered warming tolerances to better predict where, when and why nonlinear biodiversity losses will occur.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.

A topographically controlled tipping point for complete Greenland ice sheet melt

Abstract. A major impact of anthropogenic climate change is the crossing of tipping points, which may have severe consequences such as the complete mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). At present, the GrIS is losing mass at an accelerated rate, largely due to a steep decrease in its surface mass balance (SMB; the balance between snow accumulation and surface ablation from melt and associated runoff). Previous work on the magnitude and nature of a threshold for GrIS complete melt remains controversial. Here, we explore a potential SMB threshold for complete melt of the GrIS; the impact and interplay of surface melt and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) in determining this threshold; and whether the GrIS exhibits characteristics commonly associated with tipping points, such as sensitivity to external forcing. To this end, we force the Community Ice Sheet Model v.2 (CISM2) by cycling different SMB climatologies previously calculated at multiple elevation classes with the Community Earth System Model v.2 (CESM2) in a two-way coupled CESM2–CISM2 transient simulation of the global climate and GrIS under high CO2 forcing. The SMB calculation in CESM2 has been evaluated with contemporary observations and high-resolution modelling and includes an advanced representation of surface melt and snow–firn processes. We find a positive SMB threshold for complete GrIS melt of 230 ± 84 Gt yr−1, corresponding to a 60 % decrease in SMB and to a global mean warming of +3.4 K compared to pre-industrial CESM2–CISM2 simulated values. In our simulations, a small change in the initial SMB forcing (from 255 to 230 Gt yr−1) and global mean warming above pre-industrial levels (from +3.2 to +3.4 K) causes an abrupt change in the GrIS final volume (from 50 % mass to nearly complete deglaciation). This nonlinear behaviour is caused by the SMB–elevation feedback, which responds to changes in surface topography due to surface melt and GIA. The GrIS tips from ∼ 50 % mass towards nearly complete melt when the impact of melt-induced surface lowering outweighs that of GIA-induced bedrock uplift and the (initially positive) SMB becomes and remains negative for at least a few thousand years. We also find that the GrIS tips towards nearly complete melt when the ice margin in the central west unpins from a coastal region with high topography and SMB. We show that if we keep the SMB fixed (i.e. no SMB–elevation feedback) in this relatively confined region, the ice sheet retreat is halted and nearly complete GrIS melt is prevented even though the initial SMB forcing is past the threshold. Based on the minimum GrIS configuration in previous paleo-ice-sheet modelling studies, we suggest that the surface topography in the central west might have played a role in preventing larger GrIS loss during the last interglacial period ∼ 130–115 kyr BP.

How should we bend the curve of biodiversity loss to build a just and sustainable future?

Current rates of habitat and biodiversity loss, and the threat they pose to ecological and economic productivity, would be considered a global emergency even if they were not occurring during a period of rapid anthropogenic climate change. Diversity at all levels of biological organization, both within and among species, and across genomes and communities, is critical for the resilience of the world's ecosystems in the face of such change. However, it remains an urgent scientific challenge to understand how biodiversity underpins these ecological outputs, how patterns of biodiversity are being affected by current threats, and how and where such biodiversity contributes most directly to human economies, well-being and social justice. In addition, even with such scientific understanding, there is a pressing need for societies to incorporate biodiversity protection into their economies and governance, and to stop subsidizing the loss of humanity's future prosperity for short-term private benefit. We highlight key issues and ways forward in these areas, inspired by the research and career of Dame Georgina Mace FRS, and by our discussions during the Royal Society meeting of June 2023.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Bending the curve towards nature recovery: building on Georgina Mace's legacy for a biodiverse future'.