Anthropogenic Climate Change Research Articles

Anthropogenic Climate Change Will Intensify European Explosive Storms Analogous to Alex, Eunice, and Xynthia

Abstract Extratropical storms, particularly explosive storms or “weather bombs” with exceptionally high deepening rates, present substantial risks and are susceptible to climate change. Individual storms may exhibit a complex and hardly detectable response to human-driven climate change because of the atmosphere’s chaotic nature and variability at the regional level. It is thus essential to understand changes in specific storms for building local resilience and advancing our overall comprehension of storm trends. To address this challenge, this study compares analogs—storms with a similar backward track until making landfall—in two climates of three explosive storms impacting different European locations: Alex (October 2020), Eunice (January 2022), and Xynthia (February 2010). We use a large ensemble dataset of 105 members from the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). These analogs are identified in two periods: the present-day climate (1991–2001) and a future climate scenario characterized by high anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), 2091–2101]. We evaluate future changes in the frequency of occurrence of the storms and intensity, as well as in meteorological hazards and the underlying dynamics. For all storms, our analysis reveals an increase in precipitation and wind severity over land associated with the explosive analogs in the future climate. These findings underscore the potential consequences of explosive storms modified by climate change and their subsequent hazards in various regions of Europe, offering evidence that can be used to prepare and enhance adaptation processes. Significance Statement This study investigates the impact of climate change on explosive storms, or weather bombs, and their potential consequences for European regions. We project future scenarios of three specific storms, Alex, Eunice, and Xynthia, using a state-of-the-art climate model. Our findings reveal an increase in precipitation and wind over land associated with these storms, emphasizing the heightened risks associated with climate change. The significance lies in understanding the local implications of explosive storms, aiding in the development of resilient strategies and adaptation measures.

Dynamics of Sandy Shorelines and Their Response to Wave Climate Change in the East of Hainan Island, China

Beach erosion and shoreline dynamics are strongly affected by alterations in nearshore wave intensity and energy, especially in the context of global climate change. However, existing works do not thoroughly study the evolution of the sandy coasts of eastern Hainan Island, China, nor their responses to wave climate change driven by climate variability. This study focuses on the open sandy coast and assesses shoreline evolutionary dynamics in response to wave climate variability over a 30-year period from 1994 to 2023, using an open-source software toolkit that semi-automatically identify the shorelines (CoastSat v2.4) and reanalysis wave datasets (ERA5). The shorelines of the study area were extracted from CoastSat, and then tidal correction and outlier correction were performed for clearer shorelines. Combining the shoreline changes and wave conditions derived from ERA5, the dynamics of the shorelines and their response to wave climate change were further studied. The findings reveal that the average long-term shoreline change rate along the eastern coast of Hainan Island is 0.03 m/year, with 44.8% of transects experiencing erosion and 55.2% showing long-term accretion. And distinct evolutionary patterns emerge across different sections. Interannual variability is marked by alternating erosion and siltation cycles, while most sections of the coast experiences clear seasonal fluctuations, with accretion typically occurring during summer and erosion occurring in winter. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles drive changes in parameters including significant wave height, mean wave period, wave energy flux, and mean wave direction, leading to long-term changes in wave climate. The multi-scale behavior of the sandy shoreline responds distinctly to the ongoing changes in wave climate triggered by ENSO viability, with El Niño events typically resulting in accretion and La Niña periods causing erosion. Notably, mean wave direction is the metric most closely linked to changes in the shoreline among all the others. In conclusion, the interplay of escalating anthropogenic activities, natural processes, and climate change contributes to the long-term evolution of sandy shorelines. We believe this study can offer a scientific reference for erosion prevention and management strategies of sandy beaches, based on the analysis presented above.

Non-adaptedness and vulnerability to climate change threaten Plathymenia trees (Fabaceae) from the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest

Climate change is increasing species extinction risk. The ability of a species to cope with climate change can be quantified by projecting distribution models and by estimating the risk of non-adaptedness using genomic data. The Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest in Tropical South America are increasingly threatened by habitat loss and anthropogenic climate change. This work aims to evaluate the ecological and genomic vulnerability of Plathymenia taxa and its lineages, P. reticulata, a Cerrado species, and P. foliolosa, an Atlantic Forest species, to determine their current and future habitat suitability and the mismatch between current local adaptation with the expected climate changes. The species distribution models predicted a high range loss for the Plathymenia lineages. The genotype-environment association analyses showed that the Plathymenia lineages have populations adapted to different precipitation and temperature seasonality regimes. The genomic offset analyses predict a mismatch between local adaptations and future climate for the Plathymenia indicating a high risk of non-adaptedness, especially in the pessimistic scenario. Our results show an elevated extinction risk of the species due to climate change. We suggest reevaluating the extinction risk and management of the Plathymenia species separately based on their differences in vulnerability to climate change.

Competing effects of wind and buoyancy forcing on ocean oxygen trends in recent decades

Ocean deoxygenation is becoming a major stressor for marine ecosystems due to anthropogenic climate change. Two major pathways through which climate change affects ocean oxygen are changes in wind fields and changes in air-sea heat and freshwater fluxes. Here, we use a global ocean biogeochemistry model run under historical atmospheric forcing to show that wind stress is the dominant driver of year-to-year oxygen variability in most ocean regions. Only in areas of water mass formation do air-sea heat and freshwater fluxes dominate year-to-year oxygen dynamics. The deoxygenation since the late 1960s has been driven mainly by changes in air-sea heat and freshwater fluxes. Part of this deoxygenation has been mitigated by wind-driven increases in ventilation and interior oxygen supply, mainly in the Southern Ocean. The predicted slowdown in wind stress intensification, combined with continued ocean warming, may therefore greatly accelerate ocean deoxygenation in the coming decades. The fact that the model used here, along with many state-of-the-art forced ocean models, underestimates recent ocean deoxygenation indicates the need to use forcing fields that better represent pre-industrial conditions during their spin-up.

Integrating remote sensing modeling for drought assessment and vegetation monitoring in El Tarf, Algeria: a 40-year analysis

The escalating frequency and intensity of drought events, exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change, present critical challenges to hydrological resources, ecosystem resilience, and agricultural productivity. In North Africa, and specifically Algeria, comprehending the spatiotemporal patterns of drought is essential for sustainable water resource management and ecological conservation. This investigation focuses on the El Tarf region, located in northeastern Algeria, recognized for its ecological diversity and agricultural relevance. Employing a synergistic methodology, this study integrates the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for long-term drought severity evaluation with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to monitor vegetation phenology and health over time. Utilizing the computational power of Google Earth Engine, we process extensive temporal datasets of SPEI spanning from 1980 to 2023, complemented by high-resolution satellite imagery for NDVI computation. This comprehensive approach facilitates an in-depth analysis of drought dynamics, their severity, and impacts on vegetative cover in El Tarf over the past four decades. Our findings indicate significant long-term drought trends, with notable dry spells occurring between 1994 and 2003. Severe drought events were particularly pronounced in December 2022 (SPI = -2.50) and May 2002 (SPI = -2.2), correlating with substantial precipitation deficits. Although areas experiencing extreme drought have diminished, there has been an increase in moderate drought occurrences, suggesting an uptick in drought frequency, which poses risks to hydrological resources and ecosystem health. These observed patterns align with regional climate change projections, highlighting an urgent necessity for adaptive management strategies in agriculture and water resources.

Anthropogenic Exacerbation in Dry‐Hot Probability and Consequential Record‐Shattering Droughts in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

AbstractIn the year 2019, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) experienced an unprecedented summer‐autumn drought (SAD) driven by dry‐hot conditions [high near‐surface air temperatures (T) and low precipitation (P)], causing substantial agricultural and economic losses. However, the influence of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) on these dry‐hot conditions and their impacts on SAD occurrences remains uncertain. Here, both observations and simulations show that an ACC‐driven T increase led to the greater likelihood of dry‐hot conditions from August to November 1901–2020 in MLRYR. Using the self‐calibrating Palmer drought index (scPDSI) to assess SAD severity, we find an increasing likelihood of SAD occurrence (from 33.3% in 1901–2000 to 85.7% in 2001–2020) in MLRYR associated with more frequent dry‐hot conditions. Under a business‐as‐usual scenario, future dry‐hot association is projected to be stronger, with exceptional dry‐hot conditions to increase by +10% per century. ACC‐induced increase in dry‐hot conditions would elevate the likelihood of SAD events like the 2019 event from 1.59% (1961–2020) to 17.82% (2041–2100). Therefore, effective measures are needed in MLRYR to adapt to increasing dry‐hot conditions and associated SAD occurrences under anthropogenic warming.

Recent Sociocultural Changes Reverse the Long‐Term Trend of Declining Habitat Availability for Large Wild Mammals in Europe

ABSTRACTAimPeople have strongly influenced the biosphere for millennia, but how their increasing activities have shaped wildlife distribution is incompletely understood. We examined how the distribution of European large (>8 kg), wild mammals has changed in association with changing anthropogenic pressures and climate change through the Holocene.LocationEurope.MethodsWe used over 17,000 zooarchaeological records of 20 species spanning 12,000 years to develop time‐calibrated species distribution models, incorporating dynamic data on cropland extent, natural vegetation fragmentation, human population density and climate. We assessed habitat availability and potential species richness across time and within seven biogeographical regions. We also compared anthropogenic pressures at zooarchaeological record sites with present‐day habitats of remaining large mammals to evaluate recent increases in their potential for coexistence with human activities.ResultsWe found a continuous decline in potential large mammal species richness, particularly linked to changes in human population density. Most habitat loss became evident continentally after 1500 AD, but in the Atlantic and Mediterranean bioregions, habitat loss reached 20% during the Iron/Roman Ages (1000 BC–500 AD) due to increasing human population density. Climate change initially boosted species richness (+0.67 species/km2 on average) until the end of the Mesolithic but had negligible effects afterward. Today, large mammals appear to have a higher potential for coexisting with people compared to the past (e.g., herbivores today inhabit areas with a mean human population density of 95 people/km2, compared to an average of 17 people/km2 in the period 1500–2000 AD).Main ConclusionsOur study emphasizes the crucial role of anthropogenic pressures over natural climate change in determining the distribution and diversity of large mammal communities throughout history. Additionally, our results indicate that contemporary anthropogenic trends like land‐use de‐intensification and stronger conservation policies can counteract the impact of past, higher anthropogenic pressures and reverse defaunation.

Barchan swarm dynamics from a Two-Flank Agent-Based Model

Abstract. In this work, we simulate barchan swarms using the Two-Flank Agent-Based Model and investigate how changes to model parameters and environmental drivers lead to different swarm dynamics. In particular, we explore how the parameter qshift, which controls the rate of equilibration between the flanks of an asymmetric dune and thereby the stability of an asymmetric morphology, influences the frequencies of different collision types in the swarm and can be adjusted to produce swarms with dune sizes that are longitudinally homogeneous. Such size stability has been observed in real-world swarms but has not been obtained by previous agent-based models. We also find that, for certain densities of newly added barchans, the dune number density remains constant with downwind distance, something which has also been reported in nature but not in previous agent-based models. We also investigated how boundary condition changes propagate through swarms, something which will become increasingly important in the face of human infrastructure expansion and anthropogenic climate change. Finally, we are able to investigate how asymmetry and spatially patterning in the swarms are influenced by bimodal wind regimes. Since these simulations produce many more realistic phenomena than previous models, this work represents a significant step forward in the our understanding of the interplay between environmental conditions and dune interactions in shaping the dynamics of barchan swarms.

Long-term nitrogen deposition reduces the diversity of nitrogen-fixing plants.

Biological nitrogen fixation is a fundamental part of ecosystem functioning. Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition and climate change may, however, limit the competitive advantage of nitrogen-fixing plants, leading to reduced relative diversity of nitrogen-fixing plants. Yet, assessments of changes of nitrogen-fixing plant long-term community diversity are rare. Here, we examine temporal trends in the diversity of nitrogen-fixing plants and their relationships with anthropogenic nitrogen deposition while accounting for changes in temperature and aridity. We used forest-floor vegetation resurveys of temperate forests in Europe and the United States spanning multiple decades. Nitrogen-fixer richness declined as nitrogen deposition increased over time but did not respond to changes in climate. Phylogenetic diversity also declined, as distinct lineages of N-fixers were lost between surveys, but the "winners" and "losers" among nitrogen-fixing lineages varied among study sites, suggesting that losses are context dependent. Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition reduces nitrogen-fixing plant diversity in ways that may strongly affect natural nitrogen fixation.

Predicting the influence of extreme temperatures on grain production in the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plains using a spatially-aware deep learning model.

Grain crops are vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change and extreme temperature events. Despite this, previous studies have often neglected the impact of the spatio-temporal distribution of extreme temperature events on regional grain outputs. This research focuses on the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plains and aims to address this gap as well as to provide a renewed projection of climate-induced grain production variability for the rest of the century. The proposed model performs significantly superior to the benchmark multilinear grain production model. By 2100, grain production in the MLYP is projected to decrease by over 100 tons for the low-radiative-forcing/sustainable development scenario (SSP126) and the medium-radiative-forcing scenario (SSP245), and about 270 tons for the high-radiative-forcing/fossil-fueled development scenario (SSP585). Grain production may experience less decline than previously projected by studies using Representative Concentration Pathways. This difference is likely due to a decrease in coldwave frequency, which can offset the effects of more frequent heatwaves on grain production, combined with alterations in supply-side policies. Notably, the frequency of encoded heatwaves and coldwaves has a stronger impact on grain production compared to precipitation and labor indicators; higher levels of projected heatwaves frequency correspond with increased output variability over time. This study emphasizes the need for developing crop-specific mitigation/adaptation strategies against heat and cold stress amidst global warming.

Hydroclimate modulation of central-eastern Mexico by the North Atlantic subtropical high since the little ice age

We reconstructed the hydroclimate of central-eastern Mexico over the last 700 common era (CE) based on inferences from multi-proxies from a stalagmite (K-Inc) collected at Karmidas cave, eastern México. Projections on hydroclimate variability in Mexico raise concerns about possible future occurrences of severe droughts and seasonal water balance fluctuations related to increased global temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change (Murray-Tortarolo, 2021). The eastern region influences the production and supply of food to Mexico. Simulations of past climates, validated by paleoclimate records, yield valuable perspectives on climate change and enhance our understanding of future projections. However, the paucity of paleoclimatic records hinders understanding past hydroclimatic variations and their climatic mechanisms in eastern Mexico. Our record covers the Little Ice Age (LIA) through the Historical Interval (HI), a crucial period for understanding the climate repercussions spanning the transition from Earth's climatic history to the post-industrial era. The reduced intensity of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) during the LIA enabled a prominent negative phase of NAO-like variability from 1600 CE until the end of LIA. Consequently, preferent meridional airflow within the continent fosters the encounter of moisture-laden intrusions with the increased frequency of cold surges as the occurrence of frontal rain in eastern Mexico, impairing the amount effect on the K-Inc δ18O record. However, after the artificial opening of the cave in 1910 CE, the δ18O records of K-Inc began to exhibit a ∼20-year oscillatory periodicity. In this context, the trace elements of K-Inc help elucidate the climatic conditions that governed the precipitation regime during the investigated period. The visual alignment between the zonal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) and the trace elements (Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca) of K-Inc reveals their relationship. Warm zonal SST in the EEP appears to be associated with changes in the length of the winter and summer seasons in eastern Mexico during the LIA. In contrast, over the HI, the trace elements of K-Inc show an anti-phase response to Warm zonal SST in the EEP, denoting wetter climate conditions at the vicinities of Karmidas Cave. This configuration led to questioning the influence of SST zonal variability in the EEP during the HI, which was probably masked by more relevant climate forcing. Our findings enabled us to draw climate scenarios by addressing the main climate drivers in our records.

What is the carbon footprint of academic clinical trials? A study of hotspots in 10 trials

BackgroundClinical trials are fundamental to healthcare, however, they also contribute to anthropogenic climate change. Following previous work to develop and test a method and guidance to calculate the carbon footprint...

Prior heat stress increases pathogen susceptibility in the model cnidarian Exaiptasia diaphana

Anthropogenic climate change has significantly altered terrestrial and marine ecosystems globally, often in the form of climate-related events such as thermal anomalies and disease outbreaks. Although the isolated effects of these stressors have been well documented, a growing body of literature suggests that stressors often interact, resulting in complex effects on ecosystems. This includes coral reefs where sequential associations between heat stress and disease have had profound impacts. Here we used the model cnidarian Exaiptasia diaphana to investigate mechanisms linking prior heat stress to increased disease susceptibility. We examined anemone pathogen susceptibility and physiology (symbiosis, immunity, and energetics) following recovery from heat stress. We observed significantly increased pathogen susceptibility in anemones previously exposed to heat stress. Notably, prior heat stress reduced anemone energetic reserves (carbohydrate concentration), and activity of multiple immune components. Minimal effects of prior heat stress on symbiont density were observed. Together, results suggest changes in energetic availability might have the strongest effect on pathogen susceptibility and immunity following heat stress. The results presented here provide critical insight regarding the interplay between heat stress recovery and pathogen susceptibility in cnidarians and are an important first step towards understanding temporal associations between these stressors.

Natural and anthropogenic factors influence flowering synchrony and reproduction of a dominant plant in an inter-Andean scrub.

Agriculture expansion, livestock, and global change have transformed biological communities and altered, through aerosols and direct deposition, N:P balance in soils of inter-Andean valleys, potentially affecting flowering phenology of many species and thereby flowering synchrony and plant reproduction. We evaluated the influence of variation in temperature and moisture along the local elevational gradient and treatments with the addition of N and P and grazing on flowering synchrony and reproduction of Croton, a dominant shrub of the inter-Andean dry scrub. Along the elevational gradient (300 m difference between the lowest and highest site), we set up plots with and without grazing nested with four nutrient treatments: control and addition of N or P alone or combined N + P. We recorded the number of female and male flowers in bloom monthly from September 2017 to August 2019 to calculate flowering synchrony. We assessed fruiting, seed mass, and pre-dispersal seed predation. Higher growing-season soil temperatures, which were negatively associated with local elevation and higher nitrogen availability promoted flowering synchrony of Croton, particularly among larger plants. Greater flowering synchrony, high soil temperatures, and addition of N + P resulted in production of more fruits of Croton, but also intensified pre-dispersal seed predation. Temperature, availability of moisture throughout the elevational gradient, and nutrient manipulation affected flowering synchrony, which subsequently affected production of fruits in Croton. These results emphasize the critical role of current anthropogenic changes in climate and nutrient availability on flowering synchrony and reproduction of Croton, a dominant plant of the inter-Andean scrub.

The Influence of Climate Change on Vector-Borne Diseases in a Wilderness Medicine Context.

The imminent climate crisis has been labeled as the biggest health threat humanity must deal with. Vector-borne disease distribution and transmission as well as the population at risk are influenced to a great degree by environmental and climactic factors affecting both the vectors themselves and the causative pathogens. Paired with an increase in worldwide travel, urbanization, and globalization, along with population displacements and migration, elucidating the effects of anthropogenic climate change on these illnesses is therefore of the essence to stave off potential negative sequelae. Outcomes on different vector-borne diseases will be diverse, but for many of them, these developments will result in a distribution shift or expansion with the possibility of (re-)introduction of vector and pathogen species in previously nonendemic areas. The consequence will be a growing likelihood for novel human, vector, and pathogen interactions with an increased risk for infection, morbidity, and mortality. Wilderness medicine professionals commonly work in close relationship to the natural environment and therefore will experience these alterations most strongly in their practice. Hence, this article attempts to bring awareness to the subject at hand in a wilderness medicine context, with a focus on malaria, the most burdensome of arthropod-borne diseases. For prevention of the potentially dire consequences on human health induced by climate change, concerted and intensified efforts to reduce the burning of fossil fuels and thus greenhouse gas emissions will be imperative on a global scale.

On Vegetal Geography: Perspectives on Critical Plant Studies, Placism, and Resilience

Abstract This study contributes to the emerging subdiscipline of geography, defined as vegetal geography, expanding beyond Critical Plant Studies’ focus on place-based interactions with and adaptations to human systems and ecologies. In this sense, vegetal geography covers political and cultural ecologies and psychogeography of events, highlighted by the recent pandemic, the ongoing threat of anthropogenic climate change, and the re-emergence of global diseases in recent years amid unrestrained consumerism and human niche constructions. These so-called Anthropocene proliferations tend to ramify the relation of place to organic entanglement with the non-organic, human with the nonhuman, which implicates species trade-offs, uncanny alliances, and affinities, via a series of differential synthesis, borrowing from Deleuze and Guattari, amid increasing climate anomalies. In the process, they engender emergent ecologies where vegetal life, a key Deleuzean concept, provides a critical pivot to interspecies relations in times of crisis and emergency.

Black-necked crane as border object: interspecies politics in Himalayan borderlands

ABSTRACT Legacies of imperial frontier-making, ongoing border conflicts between nuclear armed nations, changing livelihoods, and the impact of anthropogenic climate change have created complicated claims on Himalayan borderland areas in the name of conservation, security, ethnic identity and development. Combining historical research with ethnography, this article traces the role of the Black-necked crane (grus nigricollis) in the formation of mid-nineteenth century imperial frontiers in the Himalayas and, subsequently, its present-day position in the political ecology of two Himalayan regions along the Sino-India border – Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. We introduce the concept of ‘border object’ and demonstrate how it can serve as a useful concept to understand how non-humans become participants in changing configurations of territoriality, biopolitics and science, which underpin both a past imperial frontier and present-day border regimes.

Multi-pressure based environmental vulnerability assessment in a coastal area of Bangladesh: A case study on Cox’s Bazar

Bangladesh ranks among the top 10 countries globally in terms of climate change impacts and faces numerous anthropogenic and natural pressures. Cox’s Bazar, its primary tourist district, is experiencing severe degradation of its physical and ecological environments due to anthropogenic disturbances and climate change. To improve its environmental quality and preserve its ecological resources effectively, it is essential to develop a spatial decision support instrument addressing multi-pressures and cumulative environmental vulnerability (EV). This study presents an expert opinion-independent, scalable, and customizable spatial methodological framework, integrating multi-sourced geospatial data with GIS-based Fuzzy Logic to assess spatial distributions of five pressure groups and their resulting EV in Cox’s Bazar. 18 criteria were chosen based on a structured literature review to evaluate the five pressure groups. Results revealed that 17 % to 27 % of the study area is exposed to high to very high hydro-meteorological, topographic, land resource, anthropogenic, and natural hazard pressures. The EV results indicated that one-third of the study area, majorly covering Kutubdia, Pekua, Cox’s Bazar Sadar, Teknaf, and Ukhia upazilas, is highly environmentally vulnerable. For enhanced environmental protection, this study improved the existing method of environmental protection zoning by introducing a novel zoning approach that integrates in-situ biodiversity data with EV data. This new zoning method delineated 24 % (555 sq. km.) as strict, 45 % (1047 sq. km.) as medium, and 31 % (725 sq. km.) as soft protection zones in the study area. The sensitivity analysis identified land resource pressure as the most influential component of EV. With a correlation coefficient of 0.91, the accuracy assessment confirms a high level of reliability in the EV results. This study provides valuable insights into environmental pressures and vulnerability in Cox’s Bazar, which are crucial for informing policies at various levels, including international and national frameworks, emphasizing terrestrial ecosystem protection, coastal vulnerability mitigation, climate change impact reduction, biodiversity preservation, and sustainable land resource management.

Anthropogenic climate change has reduced drought recovery probabilities across the western US

During drought, resource managers want to know when the drought will end to make informed management decisions. However, as anthropogenic climate change has intensified drought conditions, we hypothesize it has affected drought recovery. Here, we leverage monthly self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index data across the western US derived from observations and climate models, and quantify the probability of drought recovery following severe drought. We find that the probability of drought recovery is ~25–50% lower in recent decades (2000–2021) than in the historical record (1901–1980), with at least one-third of the reduced recovery probability attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Climate model ensembles show reduced recovery probabilities in the contemporary era (2000–2040), primarily due to increased evaporative demand in non-winter months, resulting in an additional 1–4 months for droughts to recover compared with the historical record. These findings suggest climate change is slowing drought recovery, with ramifications for water management decisions and drought planning.

Have we Reached a “Tipping Point” in Climate Change Reporting? How Mainstream Newspapers Cover Heatwaves

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the evolution of media coverage on heatwaves from 2010 to 2022 focusing on six countries (UK, USA, India, Australia, Canada, and China) through analysis of 27,964 newspaper reports. By employing content analysis and named entity recognition, we examine the volume of heatwave-related reports, their connection to climate change, and the incorporation of environmental science within media narratives. We explain our findings with reference to the concept of a dynamic or mobile public sphere. We identify three types of diffusion in the reporting of climate change in public spheres, which we term temporal diffusion, geographical diffusion, and political diffusion. These concepts illustrate the spread of ideas across time, space, and ideology. These shifts are characterised by an escalating media focus on heatwaves over time and the increasing association between heatwaves and anthropogenic climate change, a diffusion from countries in the Global North to the Global South, and a broadening attention from predominantly left-wing media across a wider ideological spectrum. This study contributes to our understanding of how journalistic practice, accumulated media attention, and environmental science can lead to significant shifts in transnationally linked public spheres, encouraging broader societal recognition of and engagement with climate change issues.