Recent extreme cold waves are likely not to happen again this century

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Abstract As the climate warms, cold waves are expected to become less intense and less frequent. Is there still a risk of reliving events comparable to the most intense cold spells we can remember? We analyze four remarkable cold spells that have occurred since 2010 in different regions: Western Europe, Texas, China, Brazil. We show that all these recent events have a moderate to high probability of not happening again by 2100 – typically 50% to 90% in an intermediate emissions scenario, depending on the event. The probabilities are even higher for iconic events of the 20th century or earlier. Our results suggest that the most intense cold snaps, and their associated icy landscapes in mid-latitude regions, are disappearing or have already disappeared due to anthropogenic climate change.