Anthrax Risk Research Articles

Determination of Dipicolinic Acid through the Antenna Effect of Eu(III) Coordination Polymer.

Bacillus anthracis is a Gram-positive bacterium that can cause acute infection and anthracnose, which is a serious concern for human health. Determining Bacillus anthracis through its spore biomarker dipicolinic acid (DPA) is crucial, and there is a strong need for a method that is rapid, sensitive, and selective. Here, we created Eu(III)-coordination polymers (Eu-CPs) with surfaces that have abundant carboxyl and hydroxyl groups. This was achieved by using citric acid and europium nitrate hexahydrate as precursors in a straightforward one-pot hydrothermal process. These Eu-CPs were then successfully utilized for highly sensitive DPA determination. The fluorescence (FL) emission of Eu-CPs, which is typically weak due to the coordination of Eu(III) with water molecules, was significantly enhanced in the presence of DPA. This enhancement is attributed to the competitive binding between DPA's carboxyl or hydroxyl groups and water molecules. As a result, the absorbed energy of DPA, when excited by 280 nm ultraviolet light, is transferred to Eu-CPs through an antenna effect. This leads to the emission of the characteristic red fluorescence of Eu3+ at 618 nm. A strong linear relationship was observed between the enhanced FL intensity and DPA concentration in the range of 0.5-80 μM. This relationship allowed for a limit of detection (LOD) of 15.23 nM. Furthermore, the Eu-CPs we constructed can effectively monitor the release of DPA from Bacillus subtilis spores, thereby further demonstrating the potential significance of this strategy in the monitoring and management of anthrax risk. This highlights the novelty of this approach in practical applications, provides a valuable determination technique for Bacillus anthracis, and offers insights into the development cycle of microorganisms.

Exploring the Impact of Climate Variables on Livestock Anthrax Outbreaks: A Machine Learning Approach

Anthrax, a globally significant disease, poses substantial threats to both livestock and human populations. Timely identification of anthrax outbreaks is paramount to mitigate its impact on animal health, human health, and public safety. This study aims to construct a predictive model for livestock anthrax disease occurrence. By leveraging the potential of advanced Machine-Learning techniques, we projected the likelihood of anthrax outbreaks across India, through incorporating a diverse set of meteorological, and remote sensing parameters. The ultimate goal is to establish a spatial risk map that can serve as an early warning system, aiding in the anticipation and management of future anthrax outbreaks in India's livestock population. Our analysis revealed elevated risk zones for anthrax outbreaks in the southern and north-eastern regions of India, contrasting with medium to low-risk areas in the central parts. Notably, Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), rainfall, soil moisture, and wind speed emerged as pivotal variables driving the model's predictive accuracy. Among the employed models, the random forest, adaptive boosting, and classification tree analysis approaches showcased superior performance in livestock anthrax risk assessment. The risk map was generated using significant variables by exploiting best fitted models. These findings hold profound implications for policymakers, guiding the targeted deployment of control strategies against anthrax outbreaks. The dynamic risk maps generated through this study enhance public awareness, equipping decision-makers with vital insights for informed action. By spotlighting risk management endeavours, these maps further enhance governance and risk mitigation efforts.

Informing One Health Anthrax Surveillance and Vaccination Strategy from Spatial Analysis of Anthrax in Humans and Livestock in Ha Giang Province, Vietnam (1999-2020).

Anthrax, caused by Bacillus anthracis, has a nearly global distribution but is understudied in Southeast Asia, including Vietnam. Here, we used historical data from 1999 to 2020 in Ha Giang, a province in northern Vietnam. The objectives were to describe the spatiotemporal patterns and epidemiology of human and livestock anthrax in the province and compare livestock vaccine coverage with human and livestock anthrax incidence. Annual incidence rates (per 10,000) for humans, buffalo/cattle, and goats were used to explore anthrax patterns and for comparison with livestock annual vaccine variations. A data subset describes anthrax epidemiology in humans by gender, age, source of infection, type of anthrax, admission site, and season. Zonal statistics and SaTScan were used to identify spatial and space-time clusters of human anthrax. SaTScan revealed space-time clusters in 1999, 2004, and 2007-2008 in the province, including in the northeastern, eastern, and western areas. Most human anthrax was reported between July and October. Most patients were male, aged 15-59 years, who had handled sick animals and/or consumed contaminated meat. High case-fatality rates were reported with gastrointestinal or respiratory cases. Our data suggest that vaccination in buffalo and cattle reduces the disease burden in humans and vaccinated animals but does not reduce the incidence in unvaccinated animals (goats). This study identified spatial areas of high risk for anthrax and can inform One Health surveillance and livestock vaccination planning in contextual settings similar to Ha Giang province.

Anthrax hotspot mapping in Kenya support establishing a sustainable two-phase elimination program targeting less than 6% of the country landmass

Using data collected from previous (n = 86) and prospective (n = 132) anthrax outbreaks, we enhanced prior ecological niche models (ENM) and added kernel density estimation (KDE) approaches to identify anthrax hotspots in Kenya. Local indicators of spatial autocorrelation (LISA) identified clusters of administrative wards with a relatively high or low anthrax reporting rate to determine areas of greatest outbreak intensity. Subsequently, we modeled the impact of vaccinating livestock in the identified hotspots as a national control measure. Anthrax suitable areas included high agriculture zones concentrated in the western, southwestern and central highland regions, consisting of 1043 of 1450 administrative wards, covering 18.5% country landmass, and hosting 30% of the approximately 13 million cattle population in the country. Of these, 79 wards covering 5.5% landmass and hosting 9% of the cattle population fell in identified anthrax hotspots. The rest of the 407 administrative wards covering 81.5% of the country landmass, were classified as low anthrax risk areas and consisted of the expansive low agricultural arid and semi-arid regions of the country that hosted 70% of the cattle population, reared under the nomadic pastoralism. Modelling targeted annual vaccination of 90% cattle population in hotspot administrative wards reduced > 23,000 human exposures. These findings support an economically viable first phase of anthrax control program in low-income countries where the disease is endemic, that is focused on enhanced animal and human surveillance in burden hotspots, followed by rapid response to outbreaks anchored on public education, detection and treatment of infected humans, and ring vaccination of livestock. Subsequently, the global anthrax elimination program focused on sustained vaccination and surveillance in livestock in the remaining few hotspots for a prolonged period (> 10 years) may be implemented.

Drivers and potential distribution of anthrax occurrence and incidence at national and sub-county levels across Kenya from 2006 to 2020 using INLA

Anthrax is caused by, Bacillus anthracis, a soil-borne bacterium that infects grazing animals. Kenya reported a sharp increase in livestock anthrax cases from 2005, with only 12% of the sub-counties (decentralised administrative units used by Kenyan county governments to facilitate service provision) accounting for almost a third of the livestock cases. Recent studies of the spatial extent of B. anthracis suitability across Kenya have used approaches that cannot capture the underlying spatial and temporal dependencies in the surveillance data. To address these limitations, we apply the first Bayesian approach using R-INLA to analyse a long-term dataset of livestock anthrax case data, collected from 2006 to 2020 in Kenya. We develop a spatial and a spatiotemporal model to investigate the distribution and socio-economic drivers of anthrax occurrence and incidence at the national and sub-county level. The spatial model was robust to geographically based cross validation and had a sensitivity of 75% (95% CI 65–75) against withheld data. Alarmingly, the spatial model predicted high intensity of anthrax across the Northern counties (Turkana, Samburu, and Marsabit) comprising pastoralists who are often economically and politically marginalized, and highly predisposed to a greater risk of anthrax. The spatiotemporal model showed a positive link between livestock anthrax risk and the total human population and the number of exotic dairy cattle, and a negative association with the human population density, livestock producing households, and agricultural land area. Public health programs aimed at reducing human-animal contact, improving access to healthcare, and increasing anthrax awareness, should prioritize these endemic regions.

Risk Factors for Severe Cutaneous Anthrax in a Retrospective Case Series and Use of a Clinical Algorithm to Identify Likely Meningitis and Evaluate Treatment Outcomes, Kyrgyz Republic, 2005-2012.

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines currently recommend triple-therapy antimicrobial treatment for anthrax meningitis. In the Kyrgyz Republic, a country with endemic anthrax, cutaneous anthrax patients are routinely hospitalized and treated successfully with only monotherapy or dual therapy. Clinical algorithms have been developed to identify patients with likely anthrax meningitis based on signs and symptoms alone. We sought to retrospectively identify likely meningitis patients in the Kyrgyz Republic using a clinical algorithm and evaluate risk factors and their outcomes by type of treatment. We conducted a retrospective chart review of cutaneous anthrax patients in the Kyrgyz Republic from 2005 through 2012. Using previous methods, we developed a highly specific algorithm to categorize patients by meningitis status. We then evaluated patient risk factors, treatments, and outcomes by disease severity and meningitis status. We categorized 37 of 230 cutaneous anthrax patients as likely having meningitis. All 37 likely meningitis patients survived, receiving only mono- or dual-therapy antimicrobials. We identified underlying medical conditions, such as obesity, hypertension, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and tobacco and alcohol use, as potential risk factors for severe anthrax and anthrax meningitis. Based on our analyses, treatment of anthrax meningitis may not require 3 antimicrobials, which could impact future anthrax treatment recommendations. In addition, chronic comorbidities may increase risk for severe anthrax and anthrax meningitis. Future research should further investigate potential risk factors for severe anthrax and their impact on laboratory-confirmed meningitis and evaluate mono- and dual-therapy antimicrobial regimens for anthrax meningitis.

Systematic Review of Hospital Treatment Outcomes for Naturally Acquired and Bioterrorism-Related Anthrax, 1880-2018.

Bacillus anthracis can cause anthrax and is a potential bioterrorism agent. The 2014 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendations for medical countermeasures against anthrax were based on in vitro data and expert opinion. However, a century of previously uncompiled observational human data that often includes treatment and outcomes is available in the literature for analysis. We reviewed treatment outcomes for patients hospitalized with anthrax. We stratified patients by meningitis status, route of infection, and systemic criteria, then analyzed survival by treatment type, including antimicrobials, antitoxin/antiserum, and steroids. Using logistic regression, we calculated odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals to compare survival between treatments. We also calculated hospital length of stay. Finally, we evaluated antimicrobial postexposure prophylaxis (PEPAbx) using data from a 1970 Russian-language article. We identified 965 anthrax patients reported from 1880 through 2018. After exclusions, 605 remained: 430 adults, 145 children, and 30 missing age. Survival was low for untreated patients and meningitis patients, regardless of treatment. Most patients with localized cutaneous or nonmeningitis systemic anthrax survived with 1 or more antimicrobials; patients with inhalation anthrax without meningitis fared better with at least 2. Bactericidal antimicrobials were effective for systemic anthrax; addition of a protein synthesis inhibitor(s) (PSI) to a bactericidal antimicrobial(s) did not improve survival. Likewise, addition of antitoxin/antiserum to antimicrobials did not improve survival. Mannitol improved survival for meningitis patients, but steroids did not. PEPAbx reduced risk of anthrax following exposure to B. anthracis. Combination therapy appeared to be superior to monotherapy for inhalation anthrax without meningitis. For anthrax meningitis, neither monotherapy nor combination therapy were particularly effective; however, numbers were small. For localized cutaneous anthrax, monotherapy was sufficient. For B. anthracis exposures, PEPAbx was effective.

Epidemiological Characteristics of Human Anthrax - China, 2018-2021.

IntroductionThe epidemic of human anthrax is at a low level in China in recent years, but the reported incidence increased in 2021. In order to understand the current landscape of research and knowledge about anthrax in China, the epidemiological characteristics of anthrax in humans from 2018 to 2021 were analyzed and the prevention and control suggestions were proposed.MethodsSurveillance data of anthrax in humans and livestock, together with human outbreaks data during 2018–2021, were collected and analyzed by descriptive statistics methods. The number and proportion of outbreaks, cases and deaths by provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs), clinical types, and contributing factors were calculated.ResultsA total of 1,244 cases of human anthrax and 53 outbreaks were reported from 2018 to 2021 in China. While the incidence of anthrax declined from 2018 to 2020, it increased in 2021. The regions of anthrax were mainly located in the west and the northeast PLADs of China, though cases were reported in some central and eastern PLADs in 2021. Young and middle-aged men involved in animal husbandry were found to be at a higher risk of anthrax. All the reported outbreaks were associated with the exposure of infected livestock. A total of 296 livestock anthrax cases were reported.ConclusionsThe increased incidence and wider geographical distribution of human anthrax in 2021 were found to be the result of inadequate supervision of diseased animals as well as updated diagnostic criteria. As such, the monitoring of risk factors and emergency preparation procedures should be strengthened at the national level. In addition, it is also critical to strengthen health education for high-risk occupational groups and strengthen professional training for local clinicians. Finally, more measures should be carried out to strengthen anthrax surveillance in livestock husbandry.

Participatory mapping identifies risk areas and environmental predictors of endemic anthrax in rural Africa

Disease mapping reveals geographical variability in incidence, which can help to prioritise control efforts. However, in areas where this is most needed, resources to generate the required data are often lacking. Participatory mapping, which makes use of indigenous knowledge, is a potential approach to identify risk areas for endemic diseases in low- and middle-income countries. Here we combine this method with Geographical Information System-based analyses of environmental variables as a novel approach to study endemic anthrax, caused by the spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis, in rural Africa. Our aims were to: (1) identify high-risk anthrax areas using community knowledge; (2) enhance our understanding of the environmental characteristics associated with these areas; and (3) make spatial predictions of anthrax risk. Community members from the Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA), northern Tanzania, where anthrax is highly prevalent in both animals and humans, were asked to draw areas they perceived to pose anthrax risks to their livestock on geo-referenced maps. After digitisation, random points were generated within and outside the defined areas to represent high- and low-risk areas, respectively. Regression analyses were used to identify environmental variables that may predict anthrax risk. Results were combined to predict how the probability of being a high-risk area for anthrax varies across space. Participatory mapping identified fourteen discrete high-risk areas ranging from 0.2 to 212.9 km2 in size and occupying 8.4% of the NCA. Areas that pose a high risk of anthrax were positively associated with factors that increase contact with Bacillus anthracis spores rather than those associated with the pathogen’s survival: close proximity to inland water bodies, where wildlife and livestock congregate, and low organic carbon content, which may indicate an increased likelihood of animals grazing close to soil surface and ingesting spores. Predicted high-risk areas were located in the centre of the NCA, which is likely to be encountered by most herds during movements in search for resources. We demonstrate that participatory mapping combined with spatial analyses can provide novel insights into the geography of disease risk. This approach can be used to prioritise areas for control in low-resource settings, especially for diseases with environmental transmission.

Antrax in Primorsky Territory (1919–2020). Communication 2. Episootiological- Epidemiological Situation and Zoning of Administrative Territories

The aim of the study was to analyze the epizootiological and epidemiological situation in the Primorsky Territory (1919–2020) and to zone the administrative districts in regard to anthrax. Materials and methods. Accounting and reporting documents, information and archival materials were collected and analyzed, statistical reference books and literature sources were used. A comprehensive epizootiological and epidemiological survey of 12 supposed places of anthrax burials and cattle burial grounds was carried out, and their biological hazard assessed. Results and discussion. Within the framework of updating the Cadastre of stationary potentially hazardous as regards anthrax areas in the Russian Federation (2005), the number of infected farm animals and human cases was specified: according to official data, over the period of 1930–1979, the disease in 173 animals and 34 people with five deaths was registered in 82 stationary unfavorable for anthrax areas of 22 municipalities of the region. Together with the veterinary service of the region, an audit of 12 supposed places of anthrax burials in seven districts of the region was conducted. Based on the results of a comprehensive epizootiological and epidemiological survey, high biological hazard was established for 2 and potential one – for 1 anthrax burials. The culture of Bacillus anthracis isolated on the territory of Primorsky Territory belongs to one of the canonical SNP clusters – A.Br.008/009 of the global genetic line A (subgroup A1). Five criteria for assessing the epizootiological and epidemiological disadvantage for anthrax and the ranking of indicators of the administrative territories in the region have been determined. Zoning of the administrative territories of the region according to risk of anthrax has been carried out. Prophylactic anti-epizootic and anti-epidemic measures have been put forward.

Anthrax Surveillance and the Limited Overlap Between Obligate Scavengers and Endemic Anthrax Zones in the United States.

Anthrax is a zoonosis caused by the spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis, with potential for high fatality rate, especially in herbivores. Upon host death, spores can enter the soil surrounding the carcass and be ingested by other animals feeding in the same location. Accordingly, surveillance to quickly identify and decontaminate anthrax carcasses is crucial to outbreak prevention. In endemic anthrax areas such as Texas and Africa, vultures are used as a surveillance tool for identifying presence and location of dead animals. However, many anthrax outbreaks in the United States have occurred in areas outside the ranges of both black and turkey vultures. Here, we used a longitudinal camera trap survey at carcass sites in southwestern Montana to investigate the utility of facultative avian scavengers on disease and carcass surveillance in a reemerging anthrax risk zone. From August 2016 to September 2018, camera traps at 11 carcass sites were triggered 1996 times by avian scavengers. While the majority were facultative avian scavengers such as corvids and eagles, our results suggest that facultative scavengers cannot replace vultures as a surveillance tool in this ecosystem due to their absence during the anthrax risk period (June to August), reduced search efficiency, or low flight patterns. We found that the conditions in Montana likely parallel systems elsewhere in the continental United States. Using ecological niche models of B. anthracis distribution overlaid with relative abundance maps of turkey vultures, we found that much of North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wyoming, Nebraska, and Iowa have areas of anthrax risk, but low or absent turkey vulture populations. Without vultures in these areas, surveillance capacity is reduced, and it becomes more difficult to identify anthrax cases, meaning fewer carcasses are decontaminated, and consequently, outbreaks could become more frequent or severe.

Modeling the Potential Future Distribution of Anthrax Outbreaks under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios for Kenya.

The climate is changing, and such changes are projected to cause global increase in the prevalence and geographic ranges of infectious diseases such as anthrax. There is limited knowledge in the tropics with regards to expected impacts of climate change on anthrax outbreaks. We determined the future distribution of anthrax in Kenya with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for year 2055. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) of boosted regression trees (BRT) was applied in predicting the potential geographic distribution of anthrax for current and future climatic conditions. The models were fitted with presence-only anthrax occurrences (n = 178) from historical archives (2011–2017), sporadic outbreak surveys (2017–2018), and active surveillance (2019–2020). The selected environmental variables in order of importance included rainfall of wettest month, mean precipitation (February, October, December, July), annual temperature range, temperature seasonality, length of longest dry season, potential evapotranspiration and slope. We found a general anthrax risk areal expansion i.e., current, 36,131 km2, RCP 4.5, 40,012 km2, and RCP 8.5, 39,835 km2. The distribution exhibited a northward shift from current to future. This prediction of the potential anthrax distribution under changing climates can inform anticipatory measures to mitigate future anthrax risk.

A serological survey of Bacillus anthracis reveals widespread exposure to the pathogen in free-range and captive lions in Zimbabwe.

Numerous unknown factors influence anthrax epidemiology in multi-host systems, especially at wildlife/livestock/human interfaces. Serology tests for anti-anthrax antibodies in carnivores are useful tools in identifying the presence or absence of Bacillus anthracis in a range. These were employed to ascertain whether the disease pattern followed the recognized high- and low-risk anthrax zonation in Zimbabwe and also to establish whether anthrax was absent from Hwange National Park in which there have been no reported outbreaks. African lions (Panthera leo) (n=114) drawn from free-range protected areas and captive game parks located in recognized high- and low-risk zones across Zimbabwe were tested for antibodies to anthrax PA antigen using the ELISA immunoassay. A random selection of 27 lion sera samples comprising 17 seropositive and 10 seronegative sera was further tested in the species-independent toxin neutralization assay (TNA) in order to validate the former as a surveillance tool for anthrax in African lions. Using the ELISA-PA immunoassay, 21.9% (25/114) of the lions tested positive for antibodies to anthrax. Seropositivity was recorded in all study areas, and there was no significant difference (p=.852) in seropositivity between lions in high- and low-risk anthrax zones. Also, there was no significant difference (McNemar's chi-square test=0.9, p=.343) in the proportion of lions testing positive to anti-PA anthrax antibodies on ELISA-PA immunoassay compared with the TNA, with fair agreement between the two tests [kappa (K) statistic=0.30; 0.08<K<0.613]. Results of this study indicate that anthrax could be more widespread than 42 currently realized in Zimbabwe, and present in recognized high- and low-risk zones, including 43 where it has not been reported in over 20years such as Hwange National Park. This is also the 44 first report documenting the presence of anthrax lethal toxin-neutralizing antibodies in naturally 45 infected carnivores, further confirming exposure to B. anthracis. The research results point to a 46 need for revisiting the currently recognized anthrax risk zones in Zimbabwe. This should be based 47 on improved surveillance of the disease in both wild and domestic animals for better understanding and control of the disease.

Sex-Specific Elk Resource Selection during the Anthrax Risk Period.

Anthrax, caused by the spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a zoonosis affecting animals and humans globally. In the United States, anthrax outbreaks occur in wildlife and livestock, with frequent outbreaks in native and exotic wildlife species in Texas, livestock outbreaks in the Dakotas, and sporadic mixed outbreaks in Montana. Understanding where pathogen and host habitat selection overlap is essential for anthrax management. Resource selection and habitat use of ungulates may be sex-specific and lead to differential anthrax exposure risks across the landscape for males and females. We evaluated female elk (Cervus canadensis) resource selection in the same study areas as male elk in a previous anthrax risk study to identify risk of anthrax transmission to females and compare transmission risk between females and males. We developed a generalized linear mixed-effect model to estimate resource selection for female elk in southwest Montana during the June to August anthrax transmission risk period. We then predicted habitat selection of female and male elk across the study area and compared selection with the distribution of anthrax risk to identify spatial distributions of potential anthrax exposure for the male and female elk. Female and male elk selected different resources during the anthrax risk period, which resulted in different anthrax exposure areas for females and males. The sex-specific resource selection and habitat use could infer different areas of risk for anthrax transmission, which can improve anthrax and wildlife management and have important public health and economic implications.

Ungulate use of locally infectious zones in a re-emerging anthrax risk area.

Environmentally mediated indirect pathogen transmission is linked to host movement and foraging in areas where pathogens are maintained in the environment. In the case of anthrax, spores of the causative bacterium Bacillus anthracis are released into the environment following host death and create locally infectious zones (LIZs) around carcass sites; by grazing at LIZs, herbivores are potentially exposed to spores. Here, we used camera traps to assess how ungulate species use carcass sites in southwestern Montana and evaluated how these behaviours may promote indirect anthrax transmission, thus providing, to our knowledge, the first detailed documentation and study of the fine-scale mechanisms underlying foraging-based disease transmission in this ecosystem. We found that carcasses at LIZs significantly increased aboveground biomass of vegetation and concentrations of sodium and phosphorus, potentially making these sites more appealing to grazers. Host behavioural responses to LIZs varied depending on species, sex, season and carcass age; but, overall, our results demonstrated that carcasses or carcass sites serve as an attractant to herbivores in this system. Attraction to LIZs probably represents an increased risk of exposure to B. anthracis and, consequently, increased anthrax transmission rates. Accordingly, continued anthrax surveillance and control strategies are critical in this system.

Review: The risk of contracting anthrax from spore-contaminated soil - A military medical perspective.

Anthrax is an infectious disease of relevance for military forces. Although spores of Bacillus anthracis obiquitously occur in soil, reports on soil-borne transmission to humans are scarce. In this narrative review, the potential of soil-borne transmission of anthrax to humans is discussed based on pathogen-specific characteristics and reports on anthrax in the course of several centuries of warfare. In theory, anthrax foci can pose a potential risk of infection to animals and humans if sufficient amounts of virulent spores are present in the soil even after an extended period of time. In praxis, however, transmissions are usually due to contacts with animal products and reported events of soil-based transmissions are scarce. In the history of warfare, even in the trenches of World War I, reported anthrax cases due to soil-contaminated wounds are virtually absent. Both the perspectives and the experience of the Western hemisphere and of former Soviet Republics are presented. Based on the accessible data as provided in the review, the transmission risk of anthrax by infections of wounds due to spore-contaminated soil is considered as very low under the most circumstance. Active historic anthrax foci may, however, still pose a risk to the health of deployed soldiers.

Predicting the periodic risk of anthrax in livestock in Victoria, Australia, using meteorological data.

Cases of anthrax in livestock are infrequently and irregularly reported in the state of Victoria, Australia; however, their impact on individual livestock, farming communities and the government agencies tasked with containing these outbreaks is high. This infrequency has been anecdotally associated with differences in annual and local weather patterns. In this study, we used historical anthrax cases and meteorological data from weather stations throughout Victoria to train a generalized linear mixed effects model to predict the daily odds of a case of anthrax occurring in each shire in the coming 30days. Meteorological variables were transformed to deviations from the mean values for temperature or cumulative values for rainfall in the shire across all years. Shire was incorporated as a random effect to account for meteorological variation between shires. The model incorporated a post hoc weighting for the frequency of historic cases within each shire and the spatial contribution of each shire to the recently redefined Australian Anthrax Belt. Our model reveals that anthrax cases were associated with drier summer conditions (OR 0.96 (95% CI 0.95-0.97) and OR 0.98 (95% CI 0.97-0.99) for every mm increase in rainfall during September and December, respectively) and cooler than average spring (OR 0.20 (95% CI 0.11-0.52) for every °C increase in minimum daily temperature during November and warmer than average summer temperatures (OR 1.45 (95% CI 1.29-1.61) for every °C increase in maximum daily temperature during January. Cases were also preceded by a 40-day period of cooler, drier temperatures (OR 0.5 (95% CI 0.27-0.74) for every °C increase in maximum daily temperature and OR 0.96 (95% CI 0.95-0.97) for every mm increase in rainfall followed by a warmer than average minimum (or nightly) temperature 10days immediately before the case (OR 1.46 (95% CI 1.35-1.58) for every °C increase in maximum daily temperature). These coefficients of this training model were then applied daily to meteorological data for each shire, and output of these models was presented as a choropleth and timeline plot in a Shiny web application. The application builds on previous spatial modelling and provides Victorian agencies with a tool to engage at-risk farmers and guide discussions towards anthrax control. This application can contribute to the wider rejuvenation of anthrax knowledge and control in Victoria and corroborates the anecdote that increased odds of disease can be linked to meteorological events.

Bifurcation, sensitivity and optimal control analysis of modelling Anthrax-Listeriosis co-dynamics

In this paper, a deterministic model for the co-dynamics of Anthrax and Listerios diseases was formulated to investigate the qualitative and quantitative relationship of both diseases by incorporating prevention and treatment controls. The basic reproduction number, stability, existence and equilibria of each disease was investigated separately. The Anthrax-Listeriosis co-dynamics model was analysed and it the idea of backward bifurcation existed. The impact of Anthrax infection on the transmission of Listeriosis was determined. The Anthrax-Listeriosis co-dynamics model was extended and included time dependent control variables. Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle was used to obtain the optimal control strategies needed for eradication of Anthrax-Listeriosis infections. We performed the numerical simulation of the co-dynamics model in order to give the quantitative implications of the results. It was established that Anthrax infection can be attributed to increased risk of Listeriosis but Listeriosis infection is not associate with the risk of Anthrax. Effective control of Anthrax means incorporating both the intervention srategies of Anthrax and Listeriosis.

The global distribution of Bacillus anthracis and associated anthrax risk to humans, livestock and wildlife.

Bacillus anthracis is a spore-forming, Gram-positive bacterium responsible for anthrax, an acute infection that most significantly affects grazing livestock and wild ungulates, but also poses a threat to human health. The geographic extent of B. anthracis is poorly understood, despite multi-decade research on anthrax epizootic and epidemic dynamics; many countries have limited or inadequate surveillance systems, even within known endemic regions. Here, we compile a global occurrence dataset of human, livestock and wildlife anthrax outbreaks. With these records, we use boosted regression trees to produce a map of the global distribution of B. anthracis as a proxy for anthrax risk. We estimate that 1.83 billion people (95% credible interval (CI): 0.59-4.16 billion) live within regions of anthrax risk, but most of that population faces little occupational exposure. More informatively, a global total of 63.8 million poor livestock keepers (95% CI: 17.5-168.6 million) and 1.1 billion livestock (95% CI: 0.4-2.3 billion) live within vulnerable regions. Human and livestock vulnerability are both concentrated in rural rainfed systems throughout arid and temperate land across Eurasia, Africa and North America. We conclude by mapping where anthrax risk could disrupt sensitive conservation efforts for wild ungulates that coincide with anthrax-prone landscapes.

Potential Bacillus anthracis Risk Zones for Male Plains Bison ( Bison bison bison) in Southwestern Montana, USA.

A re-emergence of anthrax, a zoonosis caused by the long-lived, spore-forming Bacillus anthracis, occurred with a multispecies outbreak in southwestern Montana, US in 2008. It substantially impacted a managed herd of about 3,500 free-ranging plains bison ( Bison bison bison) on a large, private ranch southwest of Bozeman, with about 8% mortality and a disproportionate 28% mortality of mature males; a similar high rate occurred in male Rocky Mountain elk ( Cervus canadensis nelson). Grazing herbivores are particularly at risk for anthrax from ingesting spore-contaminated soil and grasses in persistent environmental reservoirs. We predicted areas of mature male bison habitat preference on the landscape by using GPS collar data and a resource selection function model using environmental covariates. We overlaid preferred areas with ecologic niche, model-based predictions of B. anthracis environmental reservoirs to identify areas of high anthrax risk. Overlapping areas were distributed across the ranch and were not confined to pastures associated with the previous outbreak, suggesting that ongoing pasture exclusion alone will not prevent future outbreaks. The data suggested vaccination campaigns should continue for bison, and the results can be used to prioritize carcass surveillance in areas of greatest overlap.