Antarctic Treaty System Research Articles

Towards an Antarctic scenarios dashboard

ABSTRACT This research note provides guidance for the development of simple indicators set in a dashboard format to illustrate current and future states of Antarctica. It supports increasing interest in the complexities of long-term futures relating to Antarctica. Scenario processes enable structured possibilities about the impacts and implications of multiple drivers of change that need to be integrated to enable effective decision making within the Antarctic Treaty System. Draft indicators for the Antarctic Scenarios Integrated Framework are presented in line with an organising structure analogous to the current practice of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It draws on a concise set of elements that build on existing research, including social, economic and environmental factors. Current baseline data are available as described through a range of open-source online databases and information sources. The aim is to provide accessible heuristics for a complex and emerging phenomenon that may only be described through crude estimates of quantitative data or through qualitative impressions of geopolitical information over a time line of anywhere from five to a hundred years. In this sense, the indicators are concerned less with accuracy and more with their materiality in highly complex, uncertain circumstances and strong inter-relationships. The note ends with suggestions on how the dashboard could be further developed.

The harmonization of small-scale marine spatial protection in the Argentine Islands area (Antarctic Peninsula) under the Antarctic Treaty System

The purpose of the article is to summarize the results of field studies carried out in the framework of the State Antarctic Research Program for 2011–2020 and undertaken to identify areas of special interest for small-scale marine spatial protection in the Argentine Islands water area. The scientific results reported in the publications and relevant meetings’ documents officially presented by the Ukrainian delegation in 2012–2019 were summarized and interpreted in view of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) provisions on marine spatial protection. GIS analysis was applied to field data. It is shown that the development of protection regime for small-scale underwater landscape is based on systematic biogeographical data collected during seasonal and year-round Ukrainian Antarctic expeditions in 2011–2019. In order to harmonize the application of all available tools of spatial ecosystem-based protection across the ATS, it is proposed to designate the long-term environmental monitoring sites around Ukrainian Antarctic Akademik Vernadsky station as a new Antarctic Specially Protected Area (ASPA) consisting of terrestrial and marine components. It is shown that the marine component of the proposed ASPA could serve as one of the scientific reference areas of the broad-scale Marine Protected Area in Domain 1 within the Antarctic Peninsula region for assessing the impact of climate change on benthic communities, as well as breeding success and distribution of penguin colonies.

The Antarctic Parliamentarians Assembly - Diplomacy and Science

Dolan, P and Millwood Hargrave, M., The Antarctic Parliamentarians Assembly - Diplomacy and science. Geoscientist 30 (6), 24, 2020 https://doi.org/doi: 10.1144/geosci2020-094, Download the pdf here Peter Dolan (FGS) and Martyn Millwood Hargrave report on the inaugural Antarctic Parliamentarians Assembly, held in Westminster in December 2019 The inaugural Antarctic Parliamentarians Assembly was hosted by the UK government in London on 2 and 3 December 2019 to mark the 60th anniversary of the signing of the Antarctic Treaty and to discuss the future of the ‘White Continent’. Left: First year ice off the Royal Society Range, Scott Coast, Antarctica c. Martyn Millwood Hargrave Parliamentarians from 13 signatory countries, including most of the seven who claim sectors of Antarctica and other interested parties such as China, issued a final conference statement and press release, available at https://www.antarcticparliamentarians.com/download The meeting featured presentations on climate change, natural resources (primarily fishing), scientific research, geopolitics and tourism. (Since first drafting this report, COVID-19 is, of course, likely to severely limited tourism in the short to medium term.) But what were the ‘takeaways’? Global impact Despite its remote location, Antarctica has a global impact. This is partly because circum–Antarctic deep sea currents are connected to those in other oceans, affecting their path and nature. Changes in circulation in the south are, for example, predicted by fisheries experts to have a very negative impact on fish stocks in northern polar areas in years to come. Antarctica is both a victim and engine of change. These ocean currents contribute to climate change which in turn is driving the anomalous and rapid temperature increases being witnessed in West Antarctica. The melting of huge glacier systems (e.g. Thwaites and Pine island) and calving of ice shelves as a result of currently escalating CO2 emissions and global temperature increases are virtually certain to lead to global sea level rise of 30cm to 50cm over the next few decades. But here, Antarctica’s influence on the rest of the world arises again: whatever the sea level rise, it will be greatest in northern latitudes due to the gravitational pull of northern hemisphere landmasses. Coastal cities such as London, New Yorkand Shanghai, beware. So what to do? The parliamentarians and their advisors had no ‘silver bullets’ to offer. Their final statement “Noted with concern …the profound effects of climate change on Antarctica’s ecosystems and the potentially catastrophic effects of Antarctic ice loss on global sea level.” They agreed to: Uphold the Antarctic Treaty System. Establish the Assembly as a biennial gathering. Protect and conserve the Antarctic environment. Promote and support international scientific collaboration Ensure effective management of activities in Antarctica. Enthusiasm and concern We left enriched by the enthusiasm of the participants and the science but concerned at the inevitability of severe impacts from global sea level rise over our children’s lifetimes. There are many geoscience contributions we can make to mitigate the underlying drivers of climate change, and our profession and community should work hard to push these areas: CC(U)S, geothermal, facilitating efficiencies in the necessary harvesting of natural resources, etc. In the meantime, the buzzword from the environmental engineers was on increasing coastal resilience. It looks like we will all need it.

Revisiting Bioprospecting in the Southern Ocean in the Context of the BBNJ Negotiations

abstractThis article revisits marine bioprospecting in the Southern Ocean in the context of the efforts to develop an international legally binding instrument (ILBI) under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction. After briefly introducing the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS), this article examines the extent to which the ILBI will likely spatially overlap with the ATS. As the next step, it is highlighted that future provisions on marine genetic resources (MGRs) in the ILBI might substantively differ from the way the ATS currently regulates bioprospecting. Based on that, the final section reflects on how the ILBI will normatively and institutionally relate to the ATS.

Coronavirus at the End of the World: Antarctica Matters

The potential impact of coronavirus on human impact both in Antarctica through tourism and scientific research as well as the Antarctic Treat System is reviewed over three time periods. In the short term, to April 2021, Antarctic tourism and field-based science will be severely reduced. The impact on Antarctic governance means that few, if any, international meetings will take place thereby leaving discussions on issues such as fishing quotas uncertain. Indeed the fact that the body charged with management of the Antarctic has, currently, no capacity to act collectively and remotely is striking. Looking to the medium term, say to April 2024, polar tourism is unlikely to have recovered and may face collapse unless alternatives are developed. Scientific research, organised through National Antarctic Programs could be reduced due to the economics of a global recession. Moving to a long-term view of five years or so, in terms of scientific activity, this will be highly dependent on the role and status of science in society following the pandemic and the extent to which science funding gets drawn into the economics of the recession. It is unlikely that cruise tourism will have regained its previous volumes though fishing, especially if food security becomes a major issue, is likely to increase pressure on environmental management mechanisms. Both these aspects will continue to put demands on the Antarctic Treaty System and its ability to respond to a fast changing global situation. In this latter sense, it could provide valuable lessons for other global agreements such as climate change and biodiversity.

The Antarctic treaty and the evolution of its institutional mechanisms

INTRODUCTION. The article dwells on the issue of evolution of mechanism created to manage the Antarctic region: Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings (ATCM) and Committee on Environmental Protection (CEP). In the paper the main stages of the development of an ATCM as a main “political” body within the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) are analysed.MATERIALS AND METHODS. The article is based on the analysis of the founding documents of the mentioned bodies – Antarctic Treaty of 1959 and Madrid Protocol to it of 1991, as well as the Rules of Procedure of the said bodies. Moreover, functioning of ATCM and CEP is compared to that of the other organs of the ATS – CCAMLR and its Scientific Committee.RESEARCH RESULTS. The author comes to a conclusion that the Consultative Parties throughout the existence of ATCM managed to effectively use the flexibility built in the Antarctic Treaty by adjusting ATCM to the particular challenges that the they were facing. The efficiency of such an approach is illustrated by the examples of the other organs of the ATS. In particular, the similarities between pairs of ATCM-CEP and CCAMLR - Scientific committee of CCAMLR are demonstrated.DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS. The analysis and classification of ATCM variations as well as of the other fora under the ATCMs has been comprehensively analysed in Russia last in 2002. With regard to this the tendency of attributing more power to CEP is highlighted. In recent time, this is done to the detriment of the ATCM functioning, when its role is sometimes diminished to only approving decisions taken by the CEP. As a conclusion the opinion is expressed that the attempts to politicise the process and manipulate the statuses of different ATS bodies is counterproductive.

The Antarctic Treaty System and the peaceful governance of Antarctica: the role of the ATS in promoting peace at the margins of the world

ABSTRACT Antarctica is celebrated by the international community as a continent exclusively for peace and science. Since its inception in 1959 the Antarctic governance regime, the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS), has provided stable and enduring governance of the region and has played a critical role in the development of peaceful norms between states in Antarctic affairs. Specifically, the Antarctic Treaty prohibits measures of a military nature, bans the testing of any type of weapon in the Antarctic, allows for open-access and inspection of all facilities, and essentially freezes the contentious issue of territorial claims and sovereignty. These measures are widely believed to have contributed to the continent remaining free from violent armed conflict between states in, or because of, Antarctica. Despite the emphasis placed on the concepts of ‘peace’ and ‘peaceful purposes’ in Antarctic affairs, there has been little attention afforded to defining these terms, and thus the idea of peace is conceptualised exclusively in its negative form; the absence of conflict. This paper argues that an expanded definition of peace to include positive peace is useful when evaluating the successes and limitations of the ATS in promoting peace in the Antarctic. While the possibility of conflict in the Antarctic in the near future remains remote, this paper goes on to identify several potential threats to peace which could undermine the stability of the ATS, which could prompt future scholarship on how the ATS could be developed to promote robust, positive and lasting peace in the Antarctic.

Towards an Antarctic scenarios integrated framework

ABSTRACT The long-term future of the Antarctic is intrinsically connected to climate change and global environmental change processes driven socially and geopolitically as much as they are biophysically. The impacts and implications of these changes are increasing in global significance, including access to natural resources, biodiversity decline, and potential institutional reforms that will require much more integrated research and support to enable effective decision-making within the Antarctic Treaty System and, potentially, beyond. The 2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere highlighted these issues and the importance of innovative tools and processes to increase capacity to develop appropriate policy including the need for scenario analysis. While research effort relating to Antarctica’s future is increasing, there is currently no coordinated approach to establish a workable set of scenarios in which future possibilities could be actively explored. In response, this paper develops an Antarctic scenarios framework integrated with global environmental change research via an organising structure analogous to the current practice of the IPCC. It draws on Antarctic studies, climate change science and futures studies to identify a concise yet comprehensive set of 17 elements over seven categories that aim to cover all relevant social, economic and environmental factors without any weighting as to overall importance. In particular, it emphasises that biophysical research on its own is not sufficient to engage with the complex policy world which is influenced by geopolitics and, as a result, proposes a more inclusive, reflexive process. The paper then builds on the latest research on scenarios for socio-environmental analysis, modelling and decision-making to examine how this could be implemented through the integration of various components within, potentially, the Antarctic Treaty System.

Marine plastic pollution in the polar south: Responses from Antarctic Treaty System

AbstractMarine plastic pollution is increasing prominence in current discussions on the governance of the world’s oceans. The Southern Ocean is geographically remote but is still significantly impacted by plastic pollution. Plastic pollution in the Southern Ocean can derive from a variety of sources, including waste from research stations and fishing operations within the Treaty Area and, through transport by ocean currents and wind-generated water movements, from outside the Treaty Area. While there is a growing academic literature on marine plastic pollution in Antarctic, there is less attention to date on the response of the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) to this issue. This paper analyses how the ATS has engaged with the issue of plastic waste in general, and marine plastic pollution more particularly, from the entry into force of the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty in 1998–2019. Our results indicate that from 2017 the ATS has shown increased attention towards addressing locally sourced marine plastic pollution. A significant problem, however, remains with the respect to marine plastic pollution originating from outside Antarctic Treaty Area that requires a governance response from outside the ATS.

“Logrolling” in Antarctic governance: Limits and opportunities

AbstractThe Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) is considered a successful example of international governance as it has managed tensions over sovereignty claims, avoided militarisation and dealt with marine resources and environmental protection. Recently, China’s influence and assertiveness in many international institutions have significantly grown. What effect this shift in the international politics will have upon Antarctic governance remains to be seen. However, to further thinking on this issue we explore two current case studies that reveal pressure points within the ATS. First, in the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources, Australia has proposed marine protected areas off East Antarctica, to which China and several other states have objected. Second, in the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meetings, China has proposed special management arrangements for the area around the “Kunlun” station, to which Australia and several other states have objected. Negotiation theory suggests “logrolling” (i.e. trade of mutual decision-making support across issue areas) can be an effective strategy to avoid diplomatic deadlocks. We therefore consider the merits of a logrolling strategy for the above issues. We find that while a logrolling strategy in the ATS might facilitate short-term diplomatic success, it would carry significant risks, including the weakening of existing norms.

Coronavirus at the end of the world: Antarctica matters.

The potential impact of coronavirus in Antarctica through tourism and scientific research as well as the Antarctic Treaty System is reviewed over three time periods. In the short term, to April 2021, Antarctic tourism and field-based research will be severely reduced. The impact on Antarctic governance means that few, if any, international meetings will take place thereby leaving discussions on issues, such as fishing quotas, uncertain. Looking to the medium term, to April 2024, polar tourism is unlikely to have recovered and may face collapse unless alternatives are developed. Scientific research, organised through National Antarctic Programs could be reduced due to the economics of a global recession. Moving to a long-term view of six years or so, in terms of scientific activity, this will be highly dependent on the role and status of science in society following the pandemic and the extent to which science funding gets drawn into the economics of the recession. It is unlikely that cruise tourism will have regained its previous volumes though fishing, especially if food security becomes a major issue, is likely to increase pressure on environmental management mechanisms. Both these aspects will continue to put demands on the Antarctic Treaty System and its ability to respond to a fast changing global situation. In this latter sense, it could provide valuable lessons, and also learn from, for other global agreements such as climate change and biodiversity.

The implied border mechanisms of Antarctica: Arguing the case for an Antarctic borderscape

AbstractAntarctica is arguably the only geographical territory left on Earth without political borders. Narratives of peace, science and environmental protection in the Antarctic Treaty System drive a collective governance system that avoids border discourse even though physical boundaries exist. This article fills a gap in Antarctic research by exploring the question ‘What borderwork is evident in the Antarctic Treaty System in relation to the construction and maintenance of its physical boundaries?’ through a study of a gateway to Antarctica—New Zealand. Borderscaping and borderwork concepts are used to examine territoriality in Antarctica. Enacted narrative analysis reveals effects of strategic narrative on practices, showing the Antarctic Treaty system has created an ‘implied’ border system that lacks some of the capabilities of an acknowledged border system. The article argues that understanding the full reach of the absences on practices and attitudes in this Antarctic system is important for the continent’s ongoing security and for border theory. It concludes that more needs to be known about the subtle effects on the many actors in this implied borderscape. Such further research will add to knowledge about Antarctic practices and governance and borderscaping theory.

BRICS in polar regions: Brazil’s interests and prospects

The current international legal regulation of the Arctic and Antarctica was organized during the second half of the XX century to establish an international public power over the two regions, the Arctic Council (AC) and the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS), which is characterized by Euro-American dominance. However, the rise of emerging countries at the beginning of the XXI century suggests a progressive redefinition of the structural balance of international power in favor of states not traditionally perceived as European and Western. This article examines the role of Brazil within the AC and the ATS to address various polar issues, even institutional ones. As a responsible country in the area of cooperation in science and technology in the oceans and polar regions in BRICS, Brazil appeals to its rich experience in Antarctica and declares its interest in joining the Arctic cooperation. For Brazil, participation in polar cooperation is a way to increase its role in global affairs and BRICS as a negotiating platform. It is seen in this context as a promising tool to achieve this goal. This article highlights new paths in the research agenda concerning interests and prospects of Brazilian agency in the polar regions.

Sixty years of the Antarctic treaty: landmark anniversary on the halfway from 1991 to 2048 milestones

Objective. This note aimed to summarize the main achievements and to determine emerging political-legal challenges of Antarctic governance in the light of the 60th anniversary of the Antarctic Treaty. Methods. A Comparative Analysis of academic papers on this matter, and interpretation of the legal provisions of declarations and statements adopted during the past decade by the Antarctic Treaty Parties’ official delegations and authorized representatives. Results. The Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) is widely considered as one of the most successful and robust international legal regimes. It is the first welldeveloped institution to govern all kinds of human activities on the continent-wide large scale in the area covering nearly 10% of Earth’s surface. Peaceful use, international scientific cooperation, and the protection of the Antarctic environment, including the rational use of marine leaving resource in the Southern Ocean, comprise the three basic elements that are and continue to be cornerstones of the ATS. While the Antarctic Treaty Parties have been mostly focusing on two arising issues (climate change and tourism), the ATS is now facing a number of other political and legal challenges, such as heterogeneity amongst memberstates, pressure to internationalize Antarctic governance, unresolved issues of jurisdiction and territorial sovereignty claims, including the delimitation of continental shelf in the Southern Ocean, as well as the growth and diversification of Antarctic resources commercial activities – illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing and bioprospecting etc. Conclusions. The current 60th anniversary of the ATS is laid at the most stabile stage of its development in the first part of twenty-first century, just in the middle of another almost 60-year period between 1991 and 2048 milestones that referring to the banning of mining in Antarctica and possible mechanism of its review respectively. Therefore, now it is the appropriate time to reinforce international efforts through relevant and proactive interaction between government and legislative bodies, to address the most important issues putting the Antarctic Treaty System under pressure and giving rise to new challenges. It is also the appropriate time to update national Antarctic strategic interests and priorities, in particular to define clear vision for Ukraine’s political role in Antarctica.

The State and Future of Antarctic Environments in a Global Context

Antarctica and the Southern Ocean comprise a critical part of the Earth System. Their environments are better understood than ever before, yet the region remains poorly considered among international agreements to improve the state of the global environment. In part the situation owes to isolated regional regulation within the Antarctic Treaty System, and in part to the dated notion that Antarctica and the Southern Ocean are well conserved and relatively free from human impact. Here we review growth in knowledge of Antarctic environments and anthropogenic pressures on them. We show that the region's unusual diversity is facing substantial local and globally mediated anthropogenic pressure, on a par with environments globally. Antarctic environmental management and regulation is being challenged to keep pace with the change. Much benefit can be derived from consideration of Antarctic environmental and resource management in the context of global agreements.

An insect invasion of Antarctica: the past, present and future distribution of Eretmoptera murphyi (Diptera, Chironomidae) on Signy Island

Abstract Rising human activity in Antarctica, combined with continued warming of the polar climate, means the risk of non‐native terrestrial species colonising and establishing in its biodiversity‐ and nutrient‐poor ecosystems is increasing. Of the five non‐native invertebrate species currently in terrestrial Antarctica, the flightless midge Eretmoptera murphyi (Schaeffer, The Museum of the Brooklyn Institute of Arts and Sciences 2:90–94, 1914) is perhaps the most persistent insect invader. Accidentally introduced to Signy Island (60°S) in the 1960s from sub‐Antarctic South Georgia (54°S), E. murphyi has steadily increased its distribution, however, its status has not been reassessed for a decade. Here, we update the distribution of E. murphyi on Signy, specifically assessing whether footpaths to regularly visited research sites represent dispersal corridors. Our findings show that both the abundance and range of E. murphyi have increased significantly since 2009, particularly along paths leading away from the original introduction site, and that the species is now on the cusp of moving into new valley systems. We identify a moderate association with soil/substrate and vegetation types and build Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models to predict areas of the island that may be at highest risk of future colonisation. As a detritivore with no competitors or predators, E. murphyi may have a major impact. For example, accelerating nutrient cycling which may have wider impacts on all levels of biodiversity. This study highlights the need for an assessment of current biosecurity protocols applied within the Antarctic Treaty system, as well as the need for systematic regular monitoring of introduced and invasive species in Antarctica.

The Antarctic Treaty as a temporal order

AbstractDiplomats, officials, scientists and other actors working with the Antarctic Treaty System have not simply negotiated a range of measures for regulating human access to the region in a physical sense. They are also continually negotiating a cultural order, one in which time is central. Antarctic actors are aware that the Treaty did not once exist and may cease to exist sometime in the future. They are conscious of environmental change. Each actor tries to elevate their standing and power in the system by deploying temporal ideas and discourses in their interactions with each other: bringing their histories into negotiations, trying to control the idea of the future. This article will map three temporalities within Treaty history: first, the deployment and potency of histories and futures, their relative rhythms and lengths; second, permanence and expiration, the questions and politics of how long the Treaty should or might last; and third, the periodisation of the Treaty period, both among actors themselves and among scholars studying Antarctica.

Legitimacy in Antarctic governance: The stewardship model

AbstractThe international community’s interest in the governance of Antarctica has long been recognised. Consideration of this interest has even been one of the pillars of the Antarctic Treaty System’s legitimacy. The Antarctic Treaty, for example, famously claims to serve “the interest of all mankind.” Yet, exactly how the international community is given a voice in Antarctic deliberations remains unclear. This contribution argues that – with the idea of direct United Nations involvement having been squarely rejected – stewardship could best describe the existing governance model as well as offer a normative framework to assess the system’s legitimacy.

Reflecting on the 60th anniversary of the Antarctic Treaty

AbstractThis essay serves as an introduction to the special issue recognising the 60th anniversary of the Antarctic Treaty. It provides the geopolitical and scientific context informing the creation of the negotiations for a new treaty between October and December 1959. Thereafter, it identifies some of the challenges facing the contemporary Antarctic Treaty System. While none are thought to be threatening to the collaborative spirit that informs the legal and political status quo, there is no room for complacency either. Finally, the contributors and their essays are introduced for the reader. Taken together, it showcases the diversity of work being undertaken by scholars in the humanities and social sciences.

All but blank: Artistic approaches to human Antarctica

AbstractThe visual arts have played an increasingly important role in examining and critiquing past and present human activities in Antarctica as governed by the Antarctic Treaty and its Protocol on Environmental protection. This paper analyses the work of six artists who have contributed to this scrutiny, awakening us to fabrications and helping to enrich Antarctic cultures beyond the scientific and the environmental. It encourages all signatory nations to the Antarctic Treaty System to embrace and empower a more diverse artistic engagement with Antarctica and suggests that artists find new ways to address threats to the Antarctic, whether they come from within and from without.