Coronavirus at the End of the World: Antarctica Matters

Abstract

The potential impact of coronavirus on human impact both in Antarctica through tourism and scientific research as well as the Antarctic Treat System is reviewed over three time periods. In the short term, to April 2021, Antarctic tourism and field-based science will be severely reduced. The impact on Antarctic governance means that few, if any, international meetings will take place thereby leaving discussions on issues such as fishing quotas uncertain. Indeed the fact that the body charged with management of the Antarctic has, currently, no capacity to act collectively and remotely is striking. Looking to the medium term, say to April 2024, polar tourism is unlikely to have recovered and may face collapse unless alternatives are developed. Scientific research, organised through National Antarctic Programs could be reduced due to the economics of a global recession. Moving to a long-term view of five years or so, in terms of scientific activity, this will be highly dependent on the role and status of science in society following the pandemic and the extent to which science funding gets drawn into the economics of the recession. It is unlikely that cruise tourism will have regained its previous volumes though fishing, especially if food security becomes a major issue, is likely to increase pressure on environmental management mechanisms. Both these aspects will continue to put demands on the Antarctic Treaty System and its ability to respond to a fast changing global situation. In this latter sense, it could provide valuable lessons for other global agreements such as climate change and biodiversity.