Southern Annular Mode Research Articles

The multiscale variability of global extreme wind and wave events and their relationships with climate modes

Extreme winds and waves threaten human life, property security, infrastructure, and marine engineering. Persistent extreme wind events (EWiEs) and extreme wave events (EWaEs) can cause more significant impacts and destruction than short-term or instantaneous extreme events. This study defines an EWiE (EWaE) as a prolonged discrete event characterized by abnormally high wind speeds (significant wave heights). The climatological characteristics, spatiotemporal variability, and long-term trends of EWaEs and EWiEs globally are studied utilizing ERA5 reanalysis datasets from 1940 to 2021. The climatological mean characteristics of EWiEs and EWaEs are generally similar: extratropical regions exhibit high intensities, high counts, and short durations, whereas tropical regions are characterized by weak intensities, low counts, and long durations. The count and duration of EWaEs have significantly increased globally, with the greatest rate in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, where the count of events has increased by more than 2.1/decade and the duration by more than 7.2 h/decade. Furthermore, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) exhibits a significant positive correlation with the count and duration of EWaEs in the eastern Pacific and Southern Oceans. In the Southern Hemisphere at 0–30°S, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) shows a significant positive correlation with the count of EWaEs and EWiEs.

Influence of the Southern Ocean Dipole on the inter-model diversity of temporal trend of the austral summer Southern Annular Mode in CMIP6 models

Influence of the Southern Ocean Dipole on the inter-model diversity of temporal trend of the austral summer Southern Annular Mode in CMIP6 models

Modelling non-stationarity in extreme rainfall using large-scale climate drivers

Flood estimates used in engineering design are commonly based on intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves derived from historical extreme rainfalls. Under global warming these extreme rainfalls are increasing, threatening the capacity of existing infrastructure to resist failure as IDF curves traditionally assume no change in rainfall magnitude. Hence, there is a need to investigate the implications of non-stationarity in extreme rainfalls used to derive IDFs across storm durations and annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs). One way of doing this is to incorporate covariates into the fitted probability distribution. However, there are few studies which examine non-stationarity in extreme rainfall using large-scale climate drivers as covariates, with little consensus on which covariate is the most appropriate. Here we evaluate non-stationarity in extreme rainfall across different durations, from the 1 in 5 AEP to the 1 in 100 AEP, using potential large-scale climate drivers including global and continental mean temperature, continental diurnal temperature range, continental dewpoint temperature, continental precipitable water, the Indian Ocean Dipole, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode. These covariates are linked to the three parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution to identify the most appropriate form of non-stationary probability model. We analyse 16 different storm durations from 6 min to 7 day annual maxima across 46 stations in Australia. Based on the Akaike Information Criteria, precipitable water is the superior covariate at a large proportion of stations irrespective of storm duration. However, when the modelled quantile changes are inspected, only global temperature is able to adequately capture the variability in changes across both storm duration and annual exceedance probability. Further, when regional average values of mean temperature, diurnal temperature range, dewpoint temperature and precipitable water were used as covariates, there was no improvement in the model performance compared to continental-wide covariates, particularly for short durations. The results using a mean global temperature covariate show that stationary historical rainfall quantile estimates are underestimated by 12 % – 9 % for frequent (1 in 5 AEP) and 23 % – 13 % for rare (1 in 100 AEP) short duration (6 min – 30 min) events. Moving forward our results suggests infrastructure design needs to incorporate non-stationarity in IDFs to ensure infrastructure and flood planning levels are not under-designed.

The Role of the Subtropical and Extratropical Southern Hemisphere Anomalous Sea Surface Temperature in the Trans‐Seasonal Influence of Southern Annular Mode on Rainfall Over Southeastern South America

AbstractThe current study explores the linkage and possible mechanisms of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) with rainfall variability over southeastern South America (SESA). The findings indicate that the preceding May SAM can modulate the subsequent rainfall over the SESA region in September‐October‐November (SON), independent of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal. Further analysis suggests that the SAM‐rainfall relationship is mainly due to the response of sea surface temperature (SST) in the subtropical and extratropical Southern Hemisphere to SAM variability via air‐sea interactions. Such SST anomalies persist to the subsequent SON and stimulate an upstream wave train extending into the study region from the South Pacific. Such wave patterns form a cyclone anomaly over SESA, indicating strong subsidence and reduced convection over the region. Meanwhile, the low‐level anomalous cyclone and anticyclone located over the subtropical South Atlantic (on the coast of the study region) are associated with easterly winds to the South (North) of the anomalous cyclone (anticyclone), which advect colder and drier air into the study region due to the cold SST over the subtropical South Atlantic and leading to increased moisture scarcity and decreased rainfall over SESA. Besides, model results based on the joint climate indices (i.e., SAM, ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)) revealed a satisfactory estimate of the SON rainfall compared with either single index, indicating that the SAM can be one of the precursors of the SESA rainfall, besides ENSO and IOD.

Technical note: An improved methodology for calculating the Southern Annular Mode index to aid consistency between climate studies

Abstract. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) strongly influences climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere. The SAM index describes the phase and magnitude of the SAM and can be calculated by measuring the difference in mean sea level pressure (MSLP) between middle and high latitudes. This study investigates the effects of calculation methods and data resolution on the SAM index, and subsequent interpretations of SAM impacts and trends. We show that the normalisation step that is traditionally used in calculating the SAM index leads to substantial differences in the magnitude of the SAM index calculated at different temporal resolutions. Additionally, the equal weighting that the normalisation approach gives to MSLP variability at the middle and high southern latitudes artificially alters temperature and precipitation correlations and the interpretation of climate change trends in the SAM. These issues can be overcome by instead using a natural SAM index based on MSLP anomalies, resulting in consistent scaling and variability in the SAM index calculated at daily, monthly and annual data resolutions. The natural SAM index has improved representation of SAM impacts in the high southern latitudes, including the asymmetric (zonal wave-3) component of MSLP variability, whereas the increased weighting given to mid-latitude MSLP variability in the normalised SAM index incorporates a stronger component of tropical climate variability that is not directly associated with SAM variability. We conclude that an improved approach of calculating the SAM index from MSLP anomalies without normalisation would aid consistency across climate studies and avoid potential ambiguity in the SAM index, including SAM index reconstructions from palaeoclimate data, and thus enable more consistent interpretations of SAM trends and impacts.

Contributions of Initial Conditions and Meteorological Forecast to Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in Western Tropical South America.

Hydrological predictions at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scales can support improved decision-making in climate-dependent sectors like agriculture and hydropower. Here, we present an S2S hydrological forecasting system (S2S-HFS) for western tropical South America (WTSA). The system uses the global NASA Goddard Earth Observing System S2S meteorological forecast system (GEOS-S2S) in combination with the generalized analog regression downscaling algorithm and the NASA Land Information System (LIS). In this implementation study, we evaluate system performance for 3-month hydrological forecasts for the austral autumn season (March-May) using ensemble hindcasts for 2002-17. Results indicate that the S2S-HFS generally offers skill in predictions of monthly precipitation up to 1-month lead, evapotranspiration up to 2 months lead, and soil moisture content up to 3 months lead. Ecoregions with better hindcast performance are located either in the coastal lowlands or in the Amazon lowland forest. We perform dedicated analysis to understand how two important teleconnections affecting the region are represented in the S2S-HFS: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). We find that forecast skill for all variables at 1-month lead is enhanced during the positive phase of ENSO and the negative phase of AAO. Overall, this study indicates that there is meaningful skill in the S2S-HFS for many ecoregions in WTSA, particularly for long memory variables such as soil moisture. The skill of the precipitation forecast, however, decays rapidly after forecast initialization, a phenomenon that is consistent with S2S meteorological forecasts over much of the world.

Sources of low-frequency variability in observed Antarctic sea ice

Abstract. Antarctic sea ice has exhibited significant variability over the satellite record, including a period of prolonged and gradual expansion, as well as a period of sudden decline. A number of mechanisms have been proposed to explain this variability, but how each mechanism manifests spatially and temporally remains poorly understood. Here, we use a statistical method called low-frequency component analysis to analyze the spatiotemporal structure of observed Antarctic sea ice concentration variability. The identified patterns reveal distinct modes of low-frequency sea ice variability. The leading mode, which accounts for the large-scale, gradual expansion of sea ice, is associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and resembles the observed sea surface temperature trend pattern that climate models have trouble reproducing. The second mode is associated with the central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode and accounts for most of the sea ice variability in the Ross Sea. The third mode is associated with the eastern Pacific ENSO and Amundsen Sea Low and accounts for most of the pan-Antarctic sea ice variability and almost all of the sea ice variability in the Weddell Sea. The third mode is also related to periods of abrupt Antarctic sea ice decline that are associated with a weakening of the circumpolar westerlies, which favors surface warming through a shoaling of the ocean mixed layer and decreased northward Ekman heat transport. Broadly, these results suggest that climate model biases in long-term Antarctic sea ice and large-scale sea surface temperature trends are related to each other and that eastern Pacific ENSO variability is a key ingredient for abrupt Antarctic sea ice changes.

Global Strong Winds Occurrence Characteristics and Climate Index Correlation

Guided by entering the deep sea and achieving deep marine development in marine construction, the factors hindering marine construction cannot be ignored. Strong ocean winds have a devastating impact on tasks such as ship navigation, carrier aircraft take-off and landing, naval operations and military exercises, and affect the planning of sea routes and the development of the long-distance sea. This paper uses ERA5 wind field data and key climate indices to conduct a systematic analysis of catastrophic winds in the global ocean using methods such as climate statistical analysis, the Theil–Sen trend method, Pearson correlation and contribution rate calculation. It points out the spatiotemporal distribution, variation trend, climate index correlation and contribution rate characteristics of strong winds occurrence (SWO) and hopes that the results of this study can serve as a guide for maritime route planning and provide technical assistance and decision-making support for marine development and other needs. The results show the following: The high global SWO occurs in the Southern Ocean, the North Atlantic, the North Pacific, near Taiwan, China, the Arabian Sea and other locations, with the strongest SWO in summer. The growth trend of SWO in the Southern Ocean is strongest, with decreasing regions near the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, and the growth trend is reflected in all four seasons. The climate indices with the strongest correlation and highest contribution to the global SWO are AAO (Antarctic Oscillation) and EP–NP (East Pacific–North Pacific pattern) with a correlation between −0.5 and 0.5 and a contribution rate of up to −50%~50%.

The Role of Cloud Radiative Effects in the Propagating Southern Annular Mode

AbstractThe Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the most dominant natural mode of variability in the mid‐latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH). However, both the sign and magnitude of the feedbacks from the diabatic processes, especially those associated with clouds, onto the SAM remain elusive. By applying the cloud locking technique to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) atmosphere model, this study isolates the positive feedback from the cloud radiative effect (CRE) to the SAM. Feedback analysis based on a wave activity‐zonal momentum interaction framework corroborates this weak but positive feedback. While the magnitude of the CRE feedback appears to be secondary compared to the feedbacks from the dry and other diabatic processes, the indirect CRE effects through the interaction with other dynamical and thermodynamical processes appear to play as important a role as the direct CRE in the life cycle of the SAM. The cross‐EOF analysis further reveals the obstructive effect of the interactive CRE on the propagation mode of the SH zonal wind directly through the CRE wave source and/or indirectly through modulating other diabatic processes. As a result, the propagation mode becomes more persistent and the SAM it represents becomes more predictable when the interactive CRE is disabled by cloud locking. Future efforts on inter‐model comparisons of CRE‐denial experiments are important to build consensus on the dynamical feedback of CRE.

A multivariate probabilistic framework for tracking the regional tropical edges: analysis of inter-annual variations and long-term trends

In the present study, a multivariate probabilistic framework is used to identify the meridional positions of regional tropical edges (RTEs), which are based on two variables: sea level pressure and precipitation minus evaporation. This new defined metric effectively captures inter-annual variability and long-term trend of the commonly adopted zonal mean tropical edge based on meridional mass stream function and near-surface winds. Besides, pronounced RTE trends are primarily located over the oceanic regions, and the terrestrial areas exhibit substantial inter-annual variability. These results are consistent among three modern reanalysis datasets. Moreover, the impacts of climate modes on RTE are investigated. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode are important both on the inter-annual variations and long-term trends of RTE. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is more inclined to affect long-term contribution rather than inter-annual relationship, and the Pacific–North American teleconnection, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Arctic oscillation highlight the inter-annual relationship with RTE in the specific regions, such as North Pacific, North Atlantic, and North Africa, respectively.

Sub-seasonal to seasonal drivers of regional marine heatwaves around Australia

As marine heatwaves (MHWs) become more intense and longer lasting due to global warming, understanding the drivers and impacts of these events is crucial for effective marine resource management. This study investigates the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Sub-Tropical Ridge High (STRH), and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) on sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and MHWs around Australia. The aim of this research is to improve our understanding of the drivers of MHWs on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, which bridges the gap between short-term weather and interannual to long-term climate variability. By analysing SST anomalies and MHWs characteristics during specific driver phases, a simple MHW hazard index is developed. Our findings support previous research indicating that La Niña plays a role in driving MHWs off the coast of Western Australia and reveals a previously unrecognised connection between ocean warming off Queensland and Tasman Sea low-pressure systems associated with the negative phase of the STRH. Our research emphasizes the importance of considering multiple drivers and their compounding effects on MHWs by showing significant changes to typical La Niña MHW patterns with the additional influence of the MJO. By considering drivers acting in the S2S timescale, forecasts can more accurately capture the timing, intensity, and spatial extent of MHW events within a season. These improved forecasts can enhance the ability of marine managers to adapt and allocate resources based on evolving climate conditions, enabling effective implementation of harm minimisation strategies.

Characterising continental shelf waves and their drivers for the southeast coast of Australia

Low-lying, developed areas in New South Wales (NSW) are susceptible to extended periods of inundation, which cannot be attributed to tides or local synoptic conditions. This inundation is often associated with relatively small water level anomalies but is persistent enough to damage the built environment. Due to their long duration, continental shelf waves (CSWs) are one of the mechanisms of concern associated with extended coastal inundation. These waves are caused by a range of synoptic disturbances occurring along the mid-latitudes and they travel anticlockwise along the coast (in the southern hemisphere), reaching low latitudes of NSW. This study investigates the characteristics of CSWs that travel along the NSW coast, their generation and propagation mechanisms in relation to local synoptic and oceanic conditions, and their potential modulation by two major large-scale climate modes: the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). We used time series of daily tidal residuals from 1994 to 2015 from nine locations along the NSW coast and used a peak over threshold approach to identify 29 waves which had an average amplitude of 0.3 m, mean period of 15 days (ranging from 8 to 20 days), and a highest occurrence in autumn and winter. The generation of CSWs is tightly coupled to the subpolar jet, the belt of westerlies, and the subtropical ridge, confirming that large-scale atmospheric circulation is a key element in the generation and propagation of CSWs. Through analyses of the inverse barometer, we found that CSWs propagate freely up to the north coast of NSW, independent of local weather conditions. We also found that CSWs are more frequent during the positive phase of SAM combined with La Niña and during neutral SAM combined with El Niño events. This study provides the longest database to date of CSWs for NSW, alongside new insights into their characteristics and timing and frequency of occurrence. Importantly, this information can be used to monitor their occurrence and forecast their impact, including the number of days taken for a wave to reach different locations along the NSW coast.

The dominant influence of indian ocean dipole-like ocean warming on decreased precipitation over eastern East Antarctica

East Antarctica is undergoing a noticeable decrease in precipitation, significantly impacting ice mass loss. However, there is a lack of research on the underlying factors behind this change. This study highlights that on an interannual timescale, the precipitation variations in Eastern East Antarctica (EEA) are predominantly influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD) compared to other climate variabilities like the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and north Atlantic variability. Through trend analysis of each climate variability, we confirmed that the observed decrease in EEA precipitation can be attributed to positive IOD-like ocean warming. A positive SAM trend also contributed to specific Wilkes Land and Queen Mary Land regions. Despite these influence on long-term trend, the relationship between IOD and EEA precipitation exhibits sporadic changes on interdecadal timescales. Notably, the apparent negative correlation between the two declined to insignificance in the early 2000s, only to re-establish a significant negative correlation by the early 2010s. The primary driver of this change is the inconsistent propagation of waves originating from the Indian Ocean. During periods of high correlation, these waves propagate southeastward, inducing a robust low-pressure anomaly near Victoria Land, ultimately leading to decreased EEA precipitation. However, during periods of low correlation, the waves move eastward and fail to alter the circulation anomalies near East Antarctica.

Weakened Seasonality of the Ocean Surface Mixed Layer Depth in the Southern Indian Ocean During 1980–2019

AbstractTemporal and spatial variations in the ocean surface mixed layer are important for the climate and ecological systems. During 1980–2019, the Southern Indian Ocean (SIO) mixed layer depth (MLD) displays a basin‐wide shoaling trend that is absent in the other basins within 40°S–40°N. The SIO MLD shoaling is mostly prominent in austral winter with deep climatology MLD, substantially weakening the MLD seasonality. Moreover, the SIO MLD changes are primarily caused by a southward shift of the subtropical anticyclonic winds and hence ocean gyre, associated with a strengthening of the Southern Annular Mode, in recent decades for both winter and summer. However, the poleward‐shifted subtropical ocean circulation preferentially shoals the SIO MLD in winter when the meridional MLD gradient is sharp but not in summer when the gradient is flat. This highlights the distinct subtropical MLD response to meridional mitigation in winds due to different background oceanic conditions across seasons.

Early 20th century Southern Hemisphere cooling

Abstract. Global surface air temperature increased by ca. 0.5 °C from the 1900s to the mid-1940s, also known as Early 20th Century Warming (ETCW). However, the ETCW started from a particularly cold phase, peaking in 1908–1911. The cold phase was global but more pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere and most pronounced in the Southern Ocean, raising the question of whether uncertainties in the data might play a role. Here we analyse this period based on reanalysis data and reconstructions, complemented with newly digitised ship data from 1903–1916, as well as land observations. The cooling is seen consistently in different data sets, though with some differences. Results suggest that the cooling was related to a La-Niña-like pattern in the Pacific, a cold tropical and subtropical South Atlantic, a cold extratropical South Pacific, and cool southern midlatitude land areas. The Southern Annular Mode was positive, with a strengthened Amundsen–Bellingshausen seas low, although the spread of the data products is considerable. All results point to a real climatic phenomenon as the cause of this anomaly and not a data artefact. Atmospheric model simulations are able to reproduce temperature and pressure patterns, consistent with a real and perhaps ocean-forced signal. Together with two volcanic eruptions just before and after the 1908–1911 period, the early 1900s provided a cold start into the ETCW.

Diabatic Eddy Forcing Increases Persistence and Opposes Propagation of the Southern Annular Mode in MERRA-2

Abstract As a dominant mode of jet variability on subseasonal time scales, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) provides a window into how the atmosphere can produce internal oscillations on longer-than-synoptic time scales. While SAM’s existence can be explained by dry, purely barotropic theories, the time scale for its persistence and propagation is set by a lagged interaction between barotropic and baroclinic mechanisms, making the exact physical mechanisms challenging to identify and to simulate, even in latest generation models. By partitioning the eddy momentum flux convergence in MERRA-2 using an eddy–mean flow interaction framework, we demonstrate that diabatic processes (condensation and radiative heating) are the main contributors to SAM’s persistence in its stationary regime, as well as the key for preventing propagation in this regime. In SAM’s propagating regime, baroclinic and diabatic feedbacks also dominate the eddy–jet feedback. However, propagation is initiated by barotropic shifts in upper-level wave breaking and then sustained by a baroclinic response, leading to a roughly 60-day oscillation period. This barotropic propagation mechanism has been identified in dry, idealized models, but here we show evidence of this mechanism for the first time in reanalysis. The diabatic feedbacks on SAM are consistent with modulation of the storm-track latitude by SAM, altering the emission temperature and cloud cover over individual waves. Therefore, future attempts to improve the SAM time scale in models should focus on the storm-track location, as well as the roles of the cloud and moisture parameterizations. Significance Statement As they circumnavigate the planet, the tropospheric jet streams slowly drift north and south over about 30 days, longer than the normal limit of weather prediction. Understanding the source of this “memory” could improve our knowledge of how the atmosphere organizes itself and our ability to make long-term forecasts. Current theories have identified several possible internal atmospheric interactions responsible for this memory. Yet most of the theories for understanding the jets’ behavior assume that this behavior is only weakly influenced by atmospheric water vapor. We show that this assumption is not enough to understand jet persistence. Instead, clouds and precipitation are more important contributors in reanalysis data than internal “dry” mechanisms to this memory of the Southern Hemisphere jet.

Spatiotemporal Variability of Extreme Precipitation Events and Associated Atmospheric Processes Over Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

AbstractWe investigate the spatial and temporal variability of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in the Dronning Maud Land (DML) sector of Antarctica using high‐resolution ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data. This study examines the spatial occurrence of EPEs across DML, focusing particularly on six locations spanning the coastal and interior parts of the area. The largest snowfall amounts are usually found on eastward‐facing slopes in the coastal zone. EPEs occur predominantly in north‐easterly to easterly flows, leading to enhanced precipitation on the windward side of the orographic features with a steep gradient. Wind during EPEs was found to be more directionally consistent in the coastal area than in the interior. An east‐west couplet of a mid‐tropospheric ridge and low‐pressure center is essential for steering warm moist maritime airmasses into the DML region before EPEs. Approximately 40% of EPEs result from atmospheric rivers (ARs), narrow bands of moist air originating at subtropical latitudes, which provide the greatest daily precipitation amounts. From 1979 to 2018, much of the DML experienced a statistically significant (p < 0.05) increase in the number of EPEs per year, along with increased precipitation from the EPEs. These trends were associated with significant changes in moisture availability and poleward meridional winds in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. The inter‐annual variability in the number of EPEs is primarily dictated by regional atmospheric variability, while the influence of the Southern Oscillation Index and Southern Annular Mode is limited.

Lagged effect of Southern Annular Mode on chlorophyll-a in the mid-latitude South Pacific and Indian Oceans

This study investigates the influence of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations and the underlying mechanisms governing their associated environmental variations in the mid-latitude (35–50° S) ocean from 1998 to 2021. The intensification of westerly winds during positive SAM phases influences meridional water transport and mixed layer depth (MLD), which are both critical factors that affect surface nutrient availability. A marked contrast in the relationship between the meridional current anomaly and the SAM was observed, with reduced northward transport of nutrient-rich water in regions north of 50° S during positive SAM phases. This reduction could be attributed to the poleward migration of the westerly winds, which impeded the meridional current from reaching the mid-latitudes. The relationship between SAM and MLD south of 50° S was positive whereas that in the mid-latitude eastern (60–110° E) South Indian Ocean and eastern (90–140° W) South Pacific Ocean was negative or weak. The immediate effect of a more positive SAM on Chl-a in the mid-latitude ocean was reduced productivity caused by enhanced nutrient depletion. However, in the mid-latitude eastern South Pacific Ocean, the northward migration of the zonal mean meridional current anomaly closely aligned with the lagged correlation pattern between SAM variability and Chl-a over time, suggesting that the delayed northward transport of nutrient-rich waters may partially counterbalance the immediate effects of the SAM on ocean productivity. This mechanism was not present in the mid-latitude eastern South Indian Ocean, implying that future climate change may variably affect these regions. Our findings emphasize the importance of considering regional differences and temporal lags when evaluating the influence of SAM variability on ocean productivity and nutrient dynamics in the context of climate change.

Distinct geographical and seasonal signals in two tree-ring based streamflow reconstructions from Tasmania, southeastern Australia

Study region Western Tasmania, southeastern Australia.Study focus We present two new tree-ring based inflow reconstructions from western Tasmania in southeastern Australia.The warm season reconstruction (Dec–Feb) extends from 1030–2007 CE and explains up to 42% of the variance in instrumental flow, while the cool season (JA) extends from 1550–2007 CE and explains 27% of instrumental flow variance. Key features include an extended pluvial period in the 11th Century and a protracted dry period in ∼1500CE, neither of which are represented in the DJF instrumental record. Decreasing JA flow since the 19th Century is consistent with a local sediment-based hydroclimate record.New hydrological insights for the region The reconstructions confirm that the instrumental data do not capture how protracted past low or high flow periods have been. It is therefore important to consider pre-instrumental flow data when planning for the future. The reconstructions provide new insights into regional variability through their association with the Subtropical Ridge (STR) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Differing spatial signatures of the seasonal reconstructions, and their associations with season-specific impacts of STR and SAM, highlight the need for caution when considering the use of remote hydroclimate proxy records with strong seasonal signatures. The reconstructions suggest that extrapolation of seasonally defined reconstructions to represent annual flow for regions beyond the extent of their spatial footprint may be problematic.

Spurious Trends in High Latitude Southern Hemisphere Precipitation Observations

AbstractThe high latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) is an important region for Earth's climate. Ocean heat content, cryosphere interactions, Antarctic bottom water development and the cloud‐albedo feedbacks need to be understood to form a complete picture of the climate system. However, the high latitude SH is one of the most under‐observed regions due to its remoteness. The advent of satellites and reanalyses have improved our monitoring of this region. Some previous studies observed an increase in precipitation over the SH high latitudes, however we argue that some of the trends in commonly used data sets may be artifacts. We use regression analysis of trends in precipitation and the Southern Annular Mode to contrast these relationships in satellite and reanalysis products, and to evaluate precipitation over the SH. We suggest that sensor changes and the lack of in situ data available for calibration may be responsible for unusual precipitation patterns especially around 65°S.