Antagonistic Threats Research Articles

Networks of Threats: Interconnection, Interaction, Intermediation

The rapidly changing global security environment requires to constantly adapt our understanding of threats. The findings of this paper confirm that threats interact with each other on three levels. Security, conflict, war, and strategic studies converge to build a new qualitative theoretical framework for threat analysis. Shaping the global security environment, threats communicate on three levels. Firstly, the interconnection of agents with similar ideological and/or strategic motivations connects threats. Secondly, interaction exacerbates incidental threats through cooperation, competition, and convergence. Thirdly, intermediation occurs between antagonistic threats trying to achieve common intermediary objectives. These networks are driven by agents maximizing their impact and reveals the autonomization and socialization of threats. Tackling these networks requires a global approach and the mobilization of collective security.

Using crowdsourced data to analyze transport crime

ABSTRACTAnecdotal evidence suggests that harsh social conditions in the road haulage industry are having an impact on transport crime. This paper analyses transport crime, and demonstrates how to use a combination of official statistics and crowdsourced data in the process. A hierarchical regression analysis was applied to investigate the relations among different factors in order to predict transport crime threats. A secondary data set on transport crime from the Swedish Police was combined with primary crowdsourced data from volunteer observations of trucks in Sweden from both high-wage and low-wage countries. The findings imply that transportation is more vulnerable to antagonistic threats in geographical areas where the low-wage hauliers operate more frequently. For policymakers and practitioners, these findings provide useful guidance for the planning of security measures. To the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first exploratory study of its kind that uses a combination of official statistics and crowdsourced data.

Resilience to Intentional Electromagnetic Interference Is Required for Connected Autonomous Vehicles

The connected autonomous vehicle (CAV) will never be completely autonomous; on the contrary, it will be heavily dependent on so-called vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs) for its function. To deserve the trust of the general public, the vehicles as well as the intelligent transport system (ITS) infrastructure must be able to handle not only natural disturbances but also attacks of malicious nature. In this paper, we discuss the effects of antagonistic attacks using intentional electromagnetic interference (IEMI) and how the antagonistic nature of the threat renders probabilistic risk analysis inadequate for the defense of the vehicles and the infrastructure. Instead, we propose a shift toward resilience engineering and vulnerability analysis to manage antagonistic threats. Finally, we also give two examples of possible scenarios to illustrate the type of situations a CAV must be able to handle.

Is it all part of the game? Victim differentiation and the normative protection of victims of online antagonism under the European Convention on Human Rights

This article analyses the issue of online antagonism (defined as antagonistic harassment, defamation, insults and threats online) and the positive obligations of states to counter such antagonism under the European Convention on Human Rights, from a legal and victimological perspective. The article illustrates how the necessary balancing between positive obligations to protect privacy under article 8, and the protection of freedom of speech under article 10, will result in different levels of protection depending on the victim and the type of victimisation in question. This may affect the possibilities for individual victims to gain legal redress, specifically access to the criminal justice system. By comparisons to the current Swedish legislative context, the article highlights some avenues for legislatures to enhance protection for certain groups without interfering with article 10. It also concludes that a failure to protect victims of online antagonism through criminal law may ipso facto weaken the foundations of public discourse that article 10 is supposed to protect, which should be taken into account in a balancing of the rights in question.

Modi operandi for cargo theft in EMEA—A seasonality analysis

This paper identifies patterns and trends in cargo theft by analysing seasonal variations (by time of year and time of week) in the relationship between value (reported stolen value) and various reported modi operandi. This research is exploratory in nature; it is based on theories derived from criminology and logistics as well as secondary data related to cargo theft. For practical purposes, the research is geographically limited to EMEA; however, the frame of reference is applicable to the analysis of antagonistic threats to transport worldwide. Though patterns differ across categories, for some modi operandi, seasonal patterns are found across both months of the year and days of the week. Despite variations in hot spots, incident categories, stolen and endangered objects, and handling methods, the basic theoretical framework is generally applicable. This research is limited by the content and classificatory scheme of the TAPA EMEA IIS database. However, this is the best available database and it contains anonymous reports that are mainly from TAPA member companies that are in the industry itself.

Ship security challenges in high-risk areas: manageable or insurmountable?

Abstract Piracy can lead to risks so high that they, according to the International Maritime Organization, are tolerable only if risk reduction is not practicable or is disproportionate to the benefits achieved. Therefore, there is a need for reducing ship security risks in relation to antagonistic threats such as piracy. The aim of this study is to identify challenges for ship operators when developing their ship security management. Furthermore, this study also investigates two central aspects in the analysis: understanding the threat and understanding how a security threat affects the crew and operation of the ship. It is clear from the analysis that the importance of subjective aspects beyond a ship operators’ direct control is high. This seems to be the fact for all aspects of the risk management process. The situation is also dynamic as the security risk, as well as the risk perception, can change dramatically even though there are no actual operational changes. As a result, the ship security management process is highly iterative and depends on situations on board as well as conditions out of the ship operator’s control. In order to make ship security manageable, the risk management has to put particular focus on methodological understanding, relevant system understanding and well-defined risk acceptance criteria as well as on including all levels of the organization in the risk reduction implementation and on a continuous monitoring.

Seasonality of cargo theft at transport chain locations

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to describe the seasonal patterns of reported cargo theft value and frequency in Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) countries with respect to different transport chain locations. Design/methodology/approach – This study is based on a system-theoretical approach, which emphasizes a holistic rather than an atomistic view. The research method used in this paper is deductive; the analysis is based on the data taken from Incident Information Service (IIS), a transport-related crime database of Transported Asset Protection Association (TAPA) EMEA; and the result is analyzed and discussed within a frame of reference based on supply chain risk management and criminology theories. Findings – There are seasonal variations in cargo thefts at different transport chain locations during particular months of the year as well as days of the week; however, each transport chain location has a different pattern. Indeed, hot spots, modus operandi, theft-endangered objects, and handling methods change frequently during the period under study. However, the basic theoretical frame of reference continues to be the same. Research limitations/implications – This study is based on theoretical deduction using official statistics regarding antagonistic threats. Its geographical limitation to the EMEA is owing to the limitations of the utilized database, although the frame of reference can be applied to analyze antagonistic threats against transport chains globally. Practical implications – This study is limited by the content and classification within the TAPA EMEA IIS database; nevertheless, this database is the best available one, with reports originating mainly from the industry itself, as different TAPA members anonymously report their losses. Originality/value – This paper is one of the first on supply chain risk management that uses actual crime statistics reported by the industry itself to analyze the occurrence of cargo theft by focusing on the value of the vehicle/goods stolen from transport chain locations.

Antagonistic threats against supply chain activities are wicked problems

The purpose of this paper is to analysis and present that antagonistic threats against supply chain activities are wicked problems. The research is based on a system-theoretical approach, which emphasizes a holistic view instead of the characteristics of the different parts. The research method used in this paper is deductive desk research. This research is mainly theoretical, and the findings are contributions to the development of theoretical models and understanding in order to further move the scientific understanding about antagonistic threats against supply chain activities. The main reason behind this is the relationship between threats and countermeasures that are complex and contextual depended. There are several types of crime that can be linked to the logistics function and processes. This paper does not address the problems from a legal viewpoint. This paper presented descriptions of four different antagonistic threats, namely theft, terrorism, smuggling and piracy. The nature of these four different antagonistic threats is then analyzed with regards to the wicked problem description, which leads to the conclusion that antagonistic threats are better described as wicked problems.

How robustness and resilience support security business against antagonistic threats in transport network

Supply chain disruptions may derive from various sources but the antagonistic threats are centered in supply chain disruption. Antagonistic threats are dynamic due to the spiral input, processes and feedbacks which create a very complex situation to analyze, assess and making decision. Beside risks, vulnerability derived from supply chain characteristics is the other issue which should be measured. Antagonistic threats are magnified in such vulnerable supply chains. After 9/11, 2001, the Security and Efficiency of the global supply chain has become an important issue in global transportation. This leads firms to consider Supply chain security as part and parcel of a company’s comprehensive risk-management program. In a security business, it is essential to understand different type risks and evaluate transportation assets, do risk based prioritization, and protect customers through cost effective actions. This could be occurred corresponding to risk management methods. Providing security may occur internally by firms or they outsource it to security providers which could be performed in higher quality or more cost effectively. In this article, we focus on managing the risks and securing the supply chain business with the security theory and strategies in the supply chain and transportation network. In order to discover risks throughout the supply chain, security provider needs to find risk hot spots where the likelihood of risk is higher. We propose two approaches (geographical and elements/process) to seek probable risks. The next step is to take strategies for risk prevention and risk mitigation. Consequently, we connect the security strategies from the literature review and collected information from security business to suggest a suitable model of how to handle the risks and achieve security in a systemic and scientific way.

Risk trade-off linked to temporary storage function in road transports

Today’s demand on high supply chain performance requires higher awareness about supply chain risks and uncertainty. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the role of temporary storage in the transport network in a supply chain perspective. The primary research question concerns the purpose or role of temporary storage and whether management of temporary storage can contribute to reducing risks and uncertainty in the supply chain. The research is based on a system-theoretical approach, which emphasizes a holistic view instead of the characteristics of the different parts. The research method used in this paper is abductive. Existing theories are used to formulate a framework which leads to a conceptual model description of the temporary storage function. This model is then supported and verified by two case studies. The temporary storage function will act as a supply chain disturbance neutralizer, thereby reducing risks and uncertainty within the supply chain. The use of temporary storage also means exposing the transport more for antagonistic threats, i.e. primarily a larger theft risk. To avoid both supply chain disturbance and increased theft risk there are three types of solutions; improved and more exact scheduling of delivery time, availability of secure parking spaces whenever a resource needs to make a temporary stop, and utilizing tracking and tracing systems. This paper illuminates the purpose and the drawbacks of temporary stops in the flow of goods within the transport network. The conditions for temporary storage in transit, related to controlling different types of risk and uncertainty in the supply chain, have been scarcely analyzed in previous research.

On analysing the official statistics for antagonistic threats against transports in EU: a supply chain risk perspective

The purpose of this paper is to analysis the risk for antagonistic threats against transports in EU in order to find patterns and trends. The research is based on a system-theoretical approach, which emphasizes a holistic view instead of the characteristics of the different parts. The research method used in this paper is deductive. The analysis is based on official statistics over antagonistic threats against transports in EU within a frame of reference consisting of theories from supply chain risk management and criminology. There is no silver bullet for solving antagonistic threats as it has always been a part of the business. Within this understanding there are many changes in hot spots, modus operandi, theft endangered objects and handling methods during time, but the basic theoretical frame of reference is still more or less the same. The geographically limitation to the EU is done of practical reasons whiles the frame of reference can be used globally for analysis antagonistic threats against transports. This research is limited by the lack of reliable information sources about criminal activities against logistics business. Secondary sources, like official crime statistics, are at best untrustworthy but more likely filled with large parts of hidden statistics. By using several different and independent official statistical sources and analysis the results within a common frame of reference can the validity of the research be secure. The theoretical framework is based on the theory of routine activity and its implications for logistics. This theory explains why the transport network produces the same theft opportunity over and over again.