On analysing the official statistics for antagonistic threats against transports in EU: a supply chain risk perspective

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analysis the risk for antagonistic threats against transports in EU in order to find patterns and trends. The research is based on a system-theoretical approach, which emphasizes a holistic view instead of the characteristics of the different parts. The research method used in this paper is deductive. The analysis is based on official statistics over antagonistic threats against transports in EU within a frame of reference consisting of theories from supply chain risk management and criminology. There is no silver bullet for solving antagonistic threats as it has always been a part of the business. Within this understanding there are many changes in hot spots, modus operandi, theft endangered objects and handling methods during time, but the basic theoretical frame of reference is still more or less the same. The geographically limitation to the EU is done of practical reasons whiles the frame of reference can be used globally for analysis antagonistic threats against transports. This research is limited by the lack of reliable information sources about criminal activities against logistics business. Secondary sources, like official crime statistics, are at best untrustworthy but more likely filled with large parts of hidden statistics. By using several different and independent official statistical sources and analysis the results within a common frame of reference can the validity of the research be secure. The theoretical framework is based on the theory of routine activity and its implications for logistics. This theory explains why the transport network produces the same theft opportunity over and over again.