Annual Percentage Change In Incidence Research Articles

Global, national, and regional burden of brain and central nervous system cancer in youth under 20 from 1990-2019: A benchmarking analysis.

2084 Background: Brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancer ranks as the second leading cause of death among all cancer-related fatalities globally in individuals under 20 years old. Despite its significance, there is a notable dearth of data on brain and CNS cancer in this age group, necessitating a comprehensive cross-country comparison. Methods: Utilizing the Global Burden of Disease study framework, we estimated the prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to brain and CNS cancer by age, sex, year, and location across 204 countries and territories from 1990-2019. Results: The total prevalence increased from 153,334 (95%UI: 111,452-233,819) in 1990 to 212,459 (164,908-245,556) in 2019, with incidence rising from 47,373 (32,635-74,710) in 1990 to 47,600 (36,572-55,194) in 2019. Notably, the annual percentage change (APC) in deaths decreased by 21% (56-15), and DALYs by 22% (57-15) from 1990-2019. Sub-Saharan Africa and the African Union exhibited the highest APC increase in deaths, while Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania experienced the most significant decrease. The highest APC in incidence occurred in the 10-14 years age group at 27%, with a slight increase of 1% in deaths observed in the 10-19 years age group. Females bore a higher burden compared to males, with APC in prevalence at 29% versus 51%, and incidence at -4% versus 7%. Conclusions: Brain and CNS cancer accounted for 9.55% of deaths among individuals under 20 globally in 2019. While the overall global trend has shown an increase over the last three decades, females exhibit a higher burden. Despite a decrease in deaths over the same period, strategies must be implemented to combat this burden, emphasizing the importance of early investigation and management, particularly in resource-limited settings worldwide. [Table: see text]

Global, regional and national time trends in incidence of adverse effects of medical treatment, 1990–2019: an age–period–cohort analysis from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

BackgroundCurrent adverse effects of medical treatment (AEMT) incidence estimates rely on limited record reviews and underreporting surveillance systems. This study evaluated global and national longitudinal patterns in AEMT incidence from...

Trends in temporal and spatial changes of Japanese encephalitis in Chinese mainland, 2004–2019: A population-based surveillance study

BackgroundJapanese encephalitis (JE) is a serious health concern in China, with approximately 80 % of global infections occurring in China. To develop effective prevention and control strategies, this study explored the epidemiological characteristics of JE in China based on spatiotemporal data, to understand the patterns and trends of JE incidence in different regions and time periods. MethodThe incidence and mortality rates of JE were extracted from the Public Health Data Center, the official website of the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, and the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System from 2004 to 2019. Joinpoint regression was applied to examine the spatiotemporal patterns and annual percentage change in incidence and mortality of the JE. ResultsFrom 2004 to 2019, a total of 43,569 cases of JE were diagnosed, including 2081 deaths. The annual incidence rate of JE decreased from 0.4171/100,000 in 2004 to 0.0298/100,000 in 2019, with an annual percentage change (APC) of −13.5 % (P < 0.001). The annual mortality rate of JE showed three stages of change, with inflection points in 2006 and 2014. The incidence and mortality rates of JE have declined in all provinces of China, and more cases were reported in 0–14 years of age, accounting for nearly 80 % of all patients. ConclusionsThe morbidity and mortality rates of JE in China are generally on a downward trend, and emphasis should be placed on strengthening disease surveillance in special areas and populations, popularizing vaccination, and increasing publicity.

The rising tide of rhegmatogenous retinal detachment in Germany: a nationwide analysis of the incidence, from 2005 to 2021.

This nationwide study aims to delineate the incidence and trends of rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (rRD) in Germany across 17years (2005-2021). We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from the German Federal Statistics Office and the Institute for the Hospital Remuneration System (InEK). The dataset includes approximately 19 million annual inpatient admissionsannually. Retinal detachment was identified through ICD-10 code H33.0. Adjusted incidence rates were estimated after excluding reoperation cases. We used R Statistical Software tocalculate estimates to2021, and Tableau for visualisation. From 2005 to 2021, Germany reported 332,650 rRD cases, with males consistently more affected. Adjusted incidence rose from 15.6 per 100,000 in 2005 to 24.8 in 2021. Variable annual percentage changes in incidence were noted, averaging 4.0% for males and 2.6% for females. The annual mean age of affected individuals ranged from 60.2 to 62years, with a median age between 62 and 63, suggesting increasing diagnoses at younger ages. Hospital stays declined from 6 to 3.3days, and higher management rates were observed in Saarland and Rhineland-Palatine. The study confirms an increasing incidence of rRD in Germany from 2005 to 2021, particularly among males. These findings call for further research to investigate the underlying causes. Collaboration among healthcare professionals, researchers, and policymakers is essential for effective management and improved visual outcomes.

INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE IN YOUTH UNDER 20 FROM 1990-2019: A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE ON REGIONAL AND NATIONAL VARIATIONS FROM THE GBD 2019 ANALYSIS

Abstract BACKGROUND Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) ranks as the 9th primary cause of mortality and the 10th main source of disability worldwide among individuals aged under 20. Grasping the worldwide implications for this age bracket is pivotal for shaping health care approaches and optimizing patient care. METHOD Leveraging the Global Burden of Disease instrument, we discerned the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) of IBD by age, gender, and year across 204 nations and territories spanning 1990-2019. The DisMod-MR 2.1 tool shed light on non-fatal health metrics like incidence and prevalence, whereas the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) framework illuminated fatal health outcomes. RESULTS From 1990 to 2019, the overall prevalence of IBD escalated from 74,975 (95%UI: 60,678-92,219) to 88,828 (72,606-108,301), marking an Annual Percentage Change (APC) of 18% (16-22). Incidence exhibited an APC surge of 23% (20-26). Conversely, deaths and DALYs plummeted by 56% and 53% respectively during the same period. Delving into global regions, Sub-Saharan Africa noted a 6% death upswing, trailed by the African Union at 65% and Low SDI nations at 1%. Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania recorded the steepest APC in age-standardized incidence rates at 67%, followed by High-SDI regions at 35%, OECD nations at 31%, and affluent countries at 30%. The 15-19 age bracket registered the most pronounced incidence rise by 24%. Males witnessed a steeper APC in incidence (24% vs. females at 21%) and prevalence (21% vs. females at 16%) from 1990-2019. CONCLUSION In 2019, IBD was responsible for 1.61% of all mortality linked to digestive diseases and contributed to 1.50% of the total digestive disease-induced disabilities. For pediatric clinicians, these findings underline the necessity for early intervention, tailored care strategies, and rigorous research into pediatric IBD. From a policy-making perspective, there is an urgent demand for resource allocation, enhanced public health campaigns, and international collaboration to mitigate the growing threat of IBD among the youth. Source: Global Burden of Disease 2019, IHME

Incidence of nontuberculous mycobacteria infections among persons with cystic fibrosis in the United States (2010–2019)

BackgroundNontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) are ubiquitous, environmental bacteria that can cause chronic lung disease. Persons with cystic fibrosis (pwCF) are at high risk for NTM. Approximately 1 in 5 pwCF in the United States (U.S.) is affected by pathogenic NTM species, and incidence rates of NTM have been increasing among pwCF as well as in the general population. Prevalence of NTM pulmonary infections (PI) varies widely across the United States because of geographic variation in environmental exposures. This study will present updated region-level incidence of NTM infections in the cystic fibrosis (CF) population in the U.S.MethodsWe used the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR) data for the period 2010 through 2019. Our study population comprised persons with CF ≥ 12 years of age who had been tested for NTM PI. We included only registry participants with NTM culture results. We defined incident cases as persons with one positive mycobacterial culture preceded by ≥ two negative mycobacterial cultures. We defined non-cases as persons with ≥ two negative mycobacterial cultures. We estimated average annual NTM PI incidence by region. Using quasi-Poisson models, we calculated annual percent change in incidence by region.ResultsWe identified 3,771 incident NTM infections. Of these cases, 1,816 (48.2%) were Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) infections and 960 (25.5%) were Mycobacterium abscessus infections. The average annual incidence of NTM PI among pwCF in the U.S. was 58.0 cases per 1,000 persons. The Northeast had the highest incidence of MAC (33.5/1,000 persons tested) and the South had the highest incidence of M. abscessus (20.3/1,000 persons tested). From 2010 to 2019, the annual incidence of total NTM PI increased significantly by 3.5% per year in the U.S.ConclusionsNTM PI incidence is increasing among pwCF. Identifying high risk areas and increasing trends is important for allocating public health and clinical resources as well as evaluating interventions.

Changing spatiotemporal patterns for hepatitis of unspecified aetiology in China, 2004-2021: a population-based surveillance study.

As global efforts continue toward the target of eliminating viral hepatitis by 2030, the emergence of acute hepatitis of unspecified aetiology (HUA) remains a concern. This study assesses the overall trends and changes in spatiotemporal patterns in HUA in China from 2004 to 2021. We extracted the incidence and mortality rates of HUA from the Public Health Data Center, the official website of the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, and the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System from 2004 to 2021. We used R software, ArcGIS, Moran's statistical analysis, and joinpoint regression to examine the spatiotemporal patterns and annual percentage change in incidence and mortality of the HUA across China. From 2004 to 2021, a total of 707,559 cases of HUA have been diagnosed, including 636 deaths. The proportion of HUA in viral hepatitis gradually decreased from 7.55% in 2004 to 0.72% in 2021. The annual incidence of HUA decreased sharply from 6.6957 per 100,000 population in 2004 to 0.6302 per 100,000 population in 2021, with an average annual percentage change (APC) reduction of -13.1% (p < 0.001). The same result was seen in the mortality (APC, -22.14%, from 0.0089/100,000 in 2004 to 0.0002/100,000 in 2021, p < 0.001). All Chinese provinces saw a decline in incidence and mortality. Longitudinal analysis identified the age distribution in the incidence and mortality of HUA did not change and was highest in persons aged 15-59 years, accounting for 70% of all reported cases. During the COVID-19 pandemic, no significant increase was seen in pediatric HUA cases in China. China is experiencing an unprecedented decline in HUA, with the lowest incidence and mortality for 18 years. However, it is still important to sensitively monitor the overall trends of HUA and further improve HUA public health policy and practice in China.

Trends in HPV- and non-HPV-associated vulvar cancer incidence, United States, 2001–2017

Vulvar cancer incidence has been rising in recent years, possibly due to increasing exposure to human papillomavirus (HPV). We assessed incidence rates of HPV-associated and non-HPV-associated vulvar cancers diagnosed from 2001 to 2017 in the United States (US). Using population-based cancer registry data covering 99% of the US population, incidence rates were calculated and stratified by age, race/ethnicity, stage, geographic region, and histology. The average annual percent change in incidence per year were calculated using joinpoint regression. From 2001 to 2017, the incidence of HPV-associated vulvar cancers increased by 1.2% per year, most notably among women who were aged 50–59 years (2.6%), 60–69 years (2.4%), and ≥ 70 years (0.9%); of White (1.5%) and Black (1.1%) race; diagnosed at an early (1.3%) and late (1.8%) stage; and living in the Midwest (1.9%), Northeast (1.4%), and South (1.2%). Incidence increased each year for HPV-associated histologic subtypes including keratinizing (4.7%), non-keratinizing (6.0%), and basaloid (3.1%) squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs), while decreases were found in warty (2.7%) and microinvasive (5.5%) SCCs. HPV-associated vulvar cancer incidence increased overall and among women aged over 50 years while remaining stable among women younger than 50 years. The overall incidence for non-HPV-associated cancers was stable. Continued surveillance of HPV-associated cancers will allow us to monitor future trends as HPV vaccination coverage increases in the US.

Global variation in young adult central nervous system tumor incidence by region, age, and sex from 1988 to 2012

BackgroundCentral nervous system (CNS) tumors result in tremendous morbidity and mortality. Incidence of CNS tumors in young adults is less studied. It is unknown how young adult CNS tumor incidence has changed globally in recent decades. MethodsWe used Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) data (1988–2012) to estimate incidence rates (IR), average annual percent change in incidence (AAPC; 95% confidence intervals [95% CI]), and male-to-female incidence rate ratios (IRR; 95% CI) by six histologies and age at diagnosis (20–29years, 30–39years). Tumors were classified as astrocytic, medulloblastoma, ependymal, oligodendroglial, meninges, and other embryonal. Geographic regions were defined using the United Nations Statistics Division geoscheme. ResultsThere were 78,240 CNS tumor cases included. 20–29-year-old (yo) rates were lower than 30–39 yo in most regions for astrocytic, oligodendroglial and ependymal tumors. Globally, astrocytic tumor incidence decreased (20–29 yo AAPC: − 0.70; 95% CI: − 1.32, − 0.08) while incidence increased for oligodendroglial (20–29 yo AAPC: 3.03; 95% CI: 1.57–4.51; 30–39 yo AAPC: 2.67; 95% CI: 0.79–4.58), ependymal (20–29 yo AAPC: 1.16; 95% CI: 0.31–2.03; 30–39 yo AAPC: 2.29; 95% CI: 1.14–3.46), medulloblastoma (30–39 yo AAPC: 0.6; 95% CI: 0.04–1.24) and tumors of the meninges (20–29 yo AAPC: 1.55; 95% CI: 0.04–3.07). There was a 20–40% male incidence excess in all histologies except for meninge tumors (30–39 yo IRR: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.61, 0.84). ConclusionsIncidence of oligodendroglial and ependymal tumors increased globally in 20–39 yo suggesting better diagnoses or changes in risk factors. Males had a higher incidence of CNS tumors for most tumors studied and in most regions.

Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer in Patients under 50 Years of Age: Demographics, Disease Characteristics, and Survival

IntroductionIncidence of early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) is increasing in younger demographics. This study analyzes disease-specific survival in individuals under 50 years of age. MethodsPatients with colorectal malignancy were identified in the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2015. Cases were categorized into typically screened (age 50-79 years) and non-typically screened (age 20-49 years) cohorts, as well as by decade. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models were used to study survival. ResultsA total of 240,772 patients with colorectal cancer were analyzed. Average annual percent change in incidence was -0.24% among typically screened patients and +1.12% among patients with EO-CRC. Patients with EO-CRC more frequently presented with distal tumors (70.6% vs. 57.6%, P < .001) and advanced tumor stage (61.3% vs. 48.6%, P < .001). Patients aged 50 and over had comparable 5 year disease-specific survival to younger patients (68.2% vs. 66.4%, P = .31); however, patients in the 3rd, 4th, and 8th decade of life had particularly low survival rates (59.0% vs. 65.8% vs. 65.8%, logrank P < .001). Patients aged 20-29 years had the most increased risk of cause-specific mortality on univariable Cox regression analysis [HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.31-1.56; P < .001], although this was not significant on multivariable analysis [HR 1.06, 95% CI 0.97-1.15; P = .201]. Male sex, older age, advanced stage, rectal and/or cecal primary, and earlier year of diagnosis were independently associated with increased mortality. ConclusionPatients with EO-CRC are diagnosed at a later stage and have lower disease-specific survival than those in typically screened cohorts. Additional studies on tumor biology and surveillance strategies are needed to improve outcomes in this population.

The increasing incidence of granulosa cell tumors in the United States: what factors are responsible?

Objectives: Although the incidence of ovarian cancer has decreased over the past several years, it is unclear if this finding is represented in the uncommon histologic types. As such, we investigated the incidence and trends of granulosa cell tumors of the ovary in the United States. Methods: Data were extracted from the United States Cancer Statistics, 2001-2016. Trends in the incidence was analyzed by SEER*Stat 8.3.8. Chi-square tests were used for statistical analysis. Results: Of 5,531 patients with granulosa cell tumors, 60.7% were White, 23.9% Black, 11.2% Hispanic, and 2.6% Asian. Local, regional, and distant, and unknown stages represented 52.7%, 26.5%, 13.1%, and 7.7% of the study population. The annual percent change in incidence (APC) of White individuals was 2.15% (p<0.01) compared to 2.59% in Black patients (p<0.01) and 1.35% in Hispanic patients (p=0.2). We then evaluated APC by age groups based on decade in White individuals and found that those aged 50-59 had an increase of 2.0% (p<0.01). White patients residing in the Middle Atlantic and East North Central experienced a significant increase as well (APC=1.9%, 3.8%; p=0.03 and <0.01, respectively). Conclusions: Despite the overall decrease in the incidence of epithelial ovarian cancer in the US, the new cases of granulosa cell tumors have been increasing. Black patients and White patients aged 50-59 years residing in the Central US are at higher risk. Factors such as genetics and social determinants of health may further explain these findings. Although the incidence of ovarian cancer has decreased over the past several years, it is unclear if this finding is represented in the uncommon histologic types. As such, we investigated the incidence and trends of granulosa cell tumors of the ovary in the United States. Data were extracted from the United States Cancer Statistics, 2001-2016. Trends in the incidence was analyzed by SEER*Stat 8.3.8. Chi-square tests were used for statistical analysis. Of 5,531 patients with granulosa cell tumors, 60.7% were White, 23.9% Black, 11.2% Hispanic, and 2.6% Asian. Local, regional, and distant, and unknown stages represented 52.7%, 26.5%, 13.1%, and 7.7% of the study population. The annual percent change in incidence (APC) of White individuals was 2.15% (p<0.01) compared to 2.59% in Black patients (p<0.01) and 1.35% in Hispanic patients (p=0.2). We then evaluated APC by age groups based on decade in White individuals and found that those aged 50-59 had an increase of 2.0% (p<0.01). White patients residing in the Middle Atlantic and East North Central experienced a significant increase as well (APC=1.9%, 3.8%; p=0.03 and <0.01, respectively). Despite the overall decrease in the incidence of epithelial ovarian cancer in the US, the new cases of granulosa cell tumors have been increasing. Black patients and White patients aged 50-59 years residing in the Central US are at higher risk. Factors such as genetics and social determinants of health may further explain these findings.

Trends in the diabetes incidence and mortality in India from 1990 to 2019: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis.

Globally, a metabolic disorder like Diabetes is considered as one of the largest global health issues, as it accounts for the majority of the disease burden and happens to be one of the leading causes of mortality as well as reduced life expectancy across the world. As in 2019, India is home to the second-largest number (77million) of Diabetic adults and the number of people affected has been increasing rapidly over the years. Termed as "the diabetes capital of the world," with every fifth diabetic in the world being an Indian, there is an urgent need to address many critically significant challenges posed by Diabetes in India, like, increasing prevalence among young people in urban areas, less awareness among people, high cost of disease management, limited healthcare facilities, suboptimal diabetes control etc. In Indian context, not enough attempts have been made to observe and understand the long-term pattern of diabetes incidence and mortality. This study aims to provide deep insights into the recent trends of diabetes incidence and mortality in India from 1990 to 2019. This is an observational study based on the most recent data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of diabetes (from 1990 to 2019) from the Global Health Data Exchange. The average annual percentage changes in incidence and mortality were analysed by joinpoint regression analysis; the net age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality were estimated by age-period-cohort analysis. During the study period, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of diabetes in India experienced an upsurge in numbers, the incidence rate increasedfrom 199.14 to 317.02, and consequently, mortality increased from 22.30 to 27.35 per 100,000 population. The joinpoint regression analysis showed that the age-standardized incidence significantly rose by 1.63 % (95 % CI: 1.57 %, 1.69 %) in Indian males and 1.56 % in Indian females (95 % CI: 1.49 %, 1.63 %) from 1990 to 2019. On the other hand, the age-standardized mortality rates rose by 0.77 % (95 % CI: 0.24 %, 1.31 %) in Indian males and 0.57 % (95 % CI: -0.54 %, 1.70 %) in Indian females. For age-specific rates, incidence increased in most age groups, with exception of age groups 5-9, 70-74, 75-79 and 80-84 in male, and age groups 5-9, 75-79 and 80-84 in female. Mortality in male saw a decreasing trend till age group 20-24, whereas in female, the rate decreased till age group 35-39. The age effect on incidence showed no obvious changes with advancing age, but the mortality significantly increased with advancing age; period effect showed that both incidence and mortality increased with advancing time period; cohort effect on diabetes incidence and mortality decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts, while incidence showed no material changes from 1975 to 1979 to 2000-2004 birth cohort. Mortality of diabetes decreased in younger age groups but increased in older age groups; however, Incidence increased in most age groups for both male and female. The net age or period effect showed an unfavourable trend while the net cohort effect presented a favourable trend. Aging was likely to drive a continued increase in the mortality of diabetes. Timely population-level interventions aiming for health education, lifestyle modification with special emphasis on the promotion of physical activity and healthy diet should be conducted, especially for male and earlier birth cohorts at high risk of diabetes.

Trends in pediatric lymphoma incidence by global region, age and sex from 1988-2012

BackgroundGlobal variation in lymphoma incidence by type and age at diagnosis, region, sex, and Human Development Index (HDI) categories has not been reported, may shed light on potential biologic mechanisms and identify areas for targeted interventions. MethodsUsing the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents data from 1988 to 2012, we identified Hodgkin (HL), non-Hodgkin (NHL), and Burkitt lymphoma (BL) diagnosed in children aged 0–19 years. We estimated incidence rates (IRs; cases/million) and average annual percent change in incidence (AAPC; 95 % CI) by geographic region, sex, and HDI for each age group (0−9years and 10−19 years). ResultsThere were 42,440 NHL, 38,683 H L, and 7703 included. Southern European (SE) 10−19-year-olds (yo) had the highest IR of NHL (19.6 cases/million) in 2008−2012. HL IRs for 0−9yo were <6 cases/million and >25 cases/million for 10−19yo in European regions and Oceania (OC). BL IRs were generally <5cases/million. Northern Europe (NE), SE, and OC 10−19yo had significantly increased APPCs in incidence for all lymphomas with the largest increases in BL (NE AAPC: 7.69 %; 95 % CI: 5.27, 10.16; SE AAPC: 5.21 %; 95 % CI: 3.26, 7.19; OC AAPC: 3.97 %; 95 % CI: 3.26, 4.70). BL incidence increased among males of all ages by approximately 2 %. NHL and BL incidence increased significantly among 10−19yo in very high HDI countries by approximately 3 %. ConclusionsSouthern and Northern Europe and Oceania displayed increased incidence of all lymphomas studied from 1988 to 2012. BL incidence significantly increased in 8 of 15 global regions, males, and higher HDI countries over the study period. Mechanisms underlying these increases remain to be elucidated.

Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma Epidemiology in the United States From 2000 to 2016.

IntroductionPleural mesothelioma constitutes about 80% of all mesotheliomas. The peak incidence of malignant mesothelioma estimated using the cancer registries was in early 1990 to 2000 in the United States. The disease is primarily associated with asbestos exposure. The latency period between asbestos exposure and the development of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) can range anywhere from 15 to 60 years. Asbestos exposure was peaked during the industrial revolution and World War II due to military and shipyard exposures. It is often difficult for the pathologist to distinguish different histological subtypes; due to the disease's rarity and the inadequate tissue sample obtained. There is no available data on the difference in epidemiology of different subtypes of MPM. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER), cancer incidence data include population-based registries covering approximately 34.6% of the U.S. population. Here in our study, we analyze malignant pleural mesothelioma epidemiology in the United States, emphasizing different histological subtypes.MethodsSEER data from 2000 to 2016 was used in our study. The primary site of cancer is selected as pleura, and malignant behavior only is selected as the filter. Data were analyzed using the SEER stat program. Overall epidemiology of MPM and epidemiology of epithelioid, fibrous, and biphasic histological subtypes were analyzed separately. We used annual percentage change (APC) to evaluate the trend in the epidemiology of MPM.Results summaryA total of 11,857 cases of MPM were included in the primary cohort from the SEER 18 registry from 2000 to 2016. The total prevalence of MPM was highest in 2009 and was lowest in 2016. The APC in MPM incidence during this period is -2.0. After removing 5,989 cases with non-specified histology during the same period, the APC for each histological type is -0.7 for fibrous type, 1.8 for epithelioid type, and 2.9 for biphasic type. Out of 17 regional registries included in the study, the greatest statistically significant change in APC was seen in the Hawaiian registry -4.1. In contrast, the lowest statistically significant difference was seen in Seattle (Puget Sound) registry -1.7. The APC in the incidence of MPM among males during the study period was -2.4 while that of females was -0.9. The Iowa registry showed a statistically significant increase in APC of the epithelioid malignant mesothelioma with a statistically insignificant reduction in the overall MPM APC.ConclusionThe overall incidence of MPM in the United States is declining, while the data showed an increase in the incidence of epithelioid and biphasic histological subtypes. The authors believe that these conflicting results can be attributed to improved histological diagnosis and improved biopsy techniques.

Estimated Projection of US Cancer Incidence and Death to 2040

Coping with the current and future burden of cancer requires an in-depth understanding of trends in cancer incidences and deaths. Estimated projections of cancer incidences and deaths will be important to guide future research funding allocations, health care planning, and health policy efforts. To estimate cancer incidences and deaths in the United States to the year 2040. This cross-sectional study's estimated projection analysis used population growth projections and current population-based cancer incidence and death rates to calculate the changes in incidences and deaths to the year 2040. Cancer-specific incidences and deaths in the US were estimated for the most common cancer types. Demographic cancer-specific delay-adjusted incidence rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program were combined with US Census Bureau population growth projections (2016) and average annual percentage changes in incidence and death rates. Statistical analyses were performed from July 2020 to February 2021. Total cancer incidences and deaths to the year 2040. This study estimated that the most common cancers in 2040 will be breast (364 000 cases) with melanoma (219 000 cases) becoming the second most common cancer; lung, third (208 000 cases); colorectal remaining fourth (147 000 cases); and prostate cancer dropping to the fourteenth most common cancer (66 000 cases). Lung cancer (63 000 deaths) was estimated to continue as the leading cause of cancer-related death in 2040, with pancreatic cancer (46 000 deaths) and liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer (41 000 deaths) surpassing colorectal cancer (34 000 deaths) to become the second and third most common causes of cancer-related death, respectively. Breast cancer (30 000 deaths) was estimated to decrease to the fifth most common cause of cancer death. These findings suggest that there will be marked changes in the landscape of cancer incidence and deaths by 2040.

Trends in the Incidence of Young-Onset Colorectal Cancer With a Focus on Years Approaching Screening Age: A Population-Based Longitudinal Study.

BackgroundWith recent evidence for the increasing risk of young-onset colorectal cancer (yCRC), we had the objective to evaluate the incidence of yCRC in 1-year age increments, particularly focusing around the screening age of 50 years.MethodsWe conducted a longitudinal study using linked administrative health databases in British Columbia, Canada, including a provincial cancer registry, inpatient and outpatient visits, and vital statistics from January 1, 1986, to December 31, 2016. We calculated incidence rates per 100 000 at every age from 20 to 60 years and estimated annual percent change in incidence (APCi) of yCRC using joinpoint regression analysis.ResultsWe identified 3614 individuals with yCRC (49.9% women). The incidence of CRC steadily increased from 20 to 60 years, with a marked increase from 49 to 50 years (incidence rate ratio = 1.19, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.04 to 1.34). Furthermore, there was a trend of increased incidence of yCRC among women (APCi = 0.79%, 95% CI = 0.22% to 1.36%) and men (APCi = 2.17%, 95% CI = 1.59% to 2.76%). Analyses stratified by age yielded APCis of 2.49% (95% CI = 1.36% to 3.63%) and 0.12% (95% CI = −0.54% to 0.79%) for women aged 30-39 years and 40-49 years, respectively, and 2.97% (95% CI = 1.65% to 4.31%) and 1.86% (95% CI = 1.19% to 2.53%) for men.ConclusionsOur findings indicate a steady increase over 1-year age increments in the risk of yCRC during the years approaching and beyond screening age. These findings highlight the need to raise awareness as well as continue discussions regarding considerations of lowering the screening age.

Changes in epidemiological features of vaccine preventable infectious diseases among three eras of national vaccination strategies from 1953 to 2018 in Shanghai, China

BackgroundRecurring outbreaks of infectious diseases highlight the importance of population vaccination strategies. We aimed to assess the impact of national vaccination strategies on vaccine-preventable infectious diseases (VPDs) in Shanghai, China and to identify vulnerable groups that may benefit from future vaccination policies. MethodsInfectious disease data from 1953 to 2018 was obtained from Xuhui District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai China. We used joinpoint regression to show incidence, mortality and fatality trends and to determine annual percent change in incidence of 12 VPDs among three eras of national immunization strategies: (1)1953–1977, (2)1978–2007, and(3)2008–2018. FindingsIncidence, mortality, and fatality from VPDs have decreased drastically over the three eras, despite the inclusion of more diseases over time. Strikingly, the overall yearly incidence of VPDs shows an increasing trend from 2000 to 2018 in Shanghai (annual percentage changes, APC:7.7, p = 0.025). In the third era (2008–2018), the three VPDs with the highest incidence were varicella (80.2 cases/100,000), hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) (73.6 cases/100,000), and hepatitis (43.5 cases/100,000). A significant upward trend was also observed in hepatitis (APC:24.9, p<0.001), varicella (APC:5.9, p = 0.006), and HFMD (APC:11.8, p = 0.003) from 2008–2018. Hepatitis and tuberculosis are the only VPDs with fatality cases in this period. InterpretationFocus is needed in controlling adult hepatitis and tuberculosis, either by introducing adult booster vaccines or by research into more effective vaccines. Varicella and HFMD are on the rise, but vaccines for these are not included in national programs. Strategies funded by government agencies or encouraged by research incentives are needed for varicella and HFMD, such as two-dose and novel multi-valent vaccines, respectively. FundingChinese Ministry of Education, Shanghai Municipal Government.

Trends of incidence, mortality and survival of multiple myeloma in Spain. A twenty-three-year population-based study.

Despite major advances, multiple myeloma remains an incurable disease. Epidemiological data from high-quality population-based registries are needed to understand the heterogeneous landscape of the disease. Incidence, mortality and survival in multiple myeloma were comprehensively analyzed in the Girona and Granada population-based cancer registries, over a 23-year study (1994-2016), divided into three periods (1994-2001, 2002-2009 and 2010-2016). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate the annual percentage change in incidence and mortality. Age-standardized net survival was calculated with the Pohar-Perme method. 1957 myeloma patients were included in the study, with a median age of 72years. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates decreased over time in both sexes and both rates were higher in males. Five-year age-standardized net survival by period was 27.4% (1994-2001), 38.8% (2002-2009), and 47.4% (2010-2016). Survival improved for all age groups: 32.4%, 74.1% and 78.5% for patients aged 15-49; 27.5%, 44.6%, and 58.5% for those aged 50-69; finally, 24.8%, 25.5%, and 26.3% for the older group. Incidence remained overall stable throughout the study, with only a small increase for men. Mortality was progressively decreasing in both sexes. Both incidence and mortality were higher in men. Age plays a critical role in survival, with impressive improvement in patients younger than 70years, but only a minor benefit in those older than 70.

Trends in paediatric central nervous system tumour incidence by global region from 1988 to 2012.

Central nervous system (CNS) tumours comprise 20% of childhood cancers worldwide. Whether childhood CNS tumour incidence has increased over time across geographic regions remains to be explored. We identified CNS cancers in the Cancer in Five Continents (CI5) data and estimated age standardized incidence rates (ASRs; cases/million children) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), male-to-female incidence rate ratios (IRR; 95% CI) and average annual percent change in incidence (AAPC; 95% CI) by geographic region for children aged 0-19 years where data were available using Poisson regression and generalized estimating equations (GEE). Cancers included: astrocytic tumours, medulloblastoma, ependymal, oligodendroglial and mixed glioma, glioma of uncertain origin, and other embryonal tumours. Geographic regions were defined using the United Nations geoscheme. There were 56 468 CNS cancers included in the study. ASRs were highest for astrocytic tumours globally in 2012 (ASR: 5.83; 95% CI: 5.68-5.99). Globally, all cancers exhibited a male excess in incidence. Regionally, only medulloblastoma had a consistently elevated male-to-female IRR at 1.4-2.2. Globally, incidence decreased for astrocytic tumours in GEE models (AAPC: -1.66; 95% CI: -3.04 to -0.26) and increased for medulloblastoma (AAPC 0.66; 95% CI: 0.19-1.14), ependymal tumours (AAPC: 1.49; 95% CI: 1.49; 95%: 0.69-2.30), glioma of uncertain origin (AAPC: 4.76; 95% CI: 1.17-1.14) and other embryonal tumours (AAPC: 3.58; 95% CI: 2.03-5.15). Regional variation in incidence trends was observed. Countries moving from lower to higher Human Development Index (HDI) over time did not appear to drive observed incidence trends. Epidemiologic and molecular studies on underlying mechanisms for changes in the global incidence of CNS tumours are necessary.

Changes in Epidemiological Features of Vaccine Preventable Infectious Diseases Among Three Eras of National Vaccination Strategies from 1953 to 2018 in Shanghai, China

Background: Recurring outbreaks of infectious diseases highlight the importance of population vaccination strategies. We aimed to assess the impact of national vaccination strategies on vaccine-preventable infectious diseases (VPDs) in Shanghai, China and to identify vulnerable groups that may benefit from future vaccination policies. Methods: Infectious disease data from 1953 to 2018 was obtained from Xuhui District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai China. We used joinpoint regression to show incidence, mortality and fatality trends and to determine annual percent change in incidence of 12 VPDs among three eras of national immunization strategies: (1)1953-1977, (2)1978-2007, and (3)2008-2018. Findings: Incidence, mortality, and fatality from VPDs have decreased drastically over the three eras, despite the inclusion of more diseases over time. Strikingly, the overall yearly incidence of VPDs shows an increasing trend from 2000 to 2018 in Shanghai (Annual percentage changes, APC: 7.7, p =0.025). In the third era (2008-2018), the three VPDs with the highest incidence were varicella (80.2 cases/100,000), hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) (73.6 cases /100,000), and hepatitis (43.5 cases /100,000). A significant upward trend was also observed in hepatitis (APC: 24.9, p <0.001), varicella (APC: 5.9, p =0.006), and HFMD (APC: 11.8, p =0.003) from 2008-2018. Hepatitis and tuberculosis are the only VPDs with fatality cases in this period. Interpretation: Focus is needed in controlling adult hepatitis and tuberculosis, either by introducing adult booster vaccines or by research into more effective vaccines. Varicella and HFMD are on the rise, but vaccines are not included in national programs. Strategies funded by government agencies or encouraged by research incentives are needed for varicella and HFMD, such as two-dose and novel multi-valent vaccines, respectively. Funding Statement: This work was supported by grants from the Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety (Fudan University), Ministry of Education, China [GW2019-9], and the Fourth Round of Three-Year Public Health Action Plan of Shanghai, China [15GWZK0101]. Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.