Estimated Projection of US Cancer Incidence and Death to 2040

Lola Rahib,Kevin T Nead,Mackenzie R Wehner,Lynn M Matrisian

doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.4708

Abstract

Coping with the current and future burden of cancer requires an in-depth understanding of trends in cancer incidences and deaths. Estimated projections of cancer incidences and deaths will be important to guide future research funding allocations, health care planning, and health policy efforts. To estimate cancer incidences and deaths in the United States to the year 2040. This cross-sectional study's estimated projection analysis used population growth projections and current population-based cancer incidence and death rates to calculate the changes in incidences and deaths to the year 2040. Cancer-specific incidences and deaths in the US were estimated for the most common cancer types. Demographic cancer-specific delay-adjusted incidence rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program were combined with US Census Bureau population growth projections (2016) and average annual percentage changes in incidence and death rates. Statistical analyses were performed from July 2020 to February 2021. Total cancer incidences and deaths to the year 2040. This study estimated that the most common cancers in 2040 will be breast (364 000 cases) with melanoma (219 000 cases) becoming the second most common cancer; lung, third (208 000 cases); colorectal remaining fourth (147 000 cases); and prostate cancer dropping to the fourteenth most common cancer (66 000 cases). Lung cancer (63 000 deaths) was estimated to continue as the leading cause of cancer-related death in 2040, with pancreatic cancer (46 000 deaths) and liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer (41 000 deaths) surpassing colorectal cancer (34 000 deaths) to become the second and third most common causes of cancer-related death, respectively. Breast cancer (30 000 deaths) was estimated to decrease to the fifth most common cause of cancer death. These findings suggest that there will be marked changes in the landscape of cancer incidence and deaths by 2040.

Highlights

There were an estimated 1.8 million diagnoses and more than 600 000 deaths from cancer in the US in 2020.1 Malignant neoplasms are the leading cause of death in individuals aged 45 to 64 years,[2] and a substantial proportion of health care spending is attributed to cancer.[3]
As incidence and death rates for many cancer types vary by age, sex, and ethnicity, the changing demographic characteristics of the US must be considered
The estimated absolute number of cancer diagnoses and deaths will be important to inform the need for professionals trained to recognize and care for individuals with the disease, the burden on insurance companies and government programs, and the allocation of research funding to support future prevention and treatments

Summary

Introduction

There were an estimated 1.8 million diagnoses and more than 600 000 deaths from cancer in the US in 2020.1 Malignant neoplasms are the leading cause of death in individuals aged 45 to 64 years,[2] and a substantial proportion of health care spending is attributed to cancer.[3] Coping with the burden of cancer requires an in-depth understanding of trends in cancer incidence and death by all stakeholders. As incidence and death rates for many cancer types vary by age, sex, and ethnicity, the changing demographic characteristics of the US must be considered.

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion