Abstract
Background: Recurring outbreaks of infectious diseases highlight the importance of population vaccination strategies. We aimed to assess the impact of national vaccination strategies on vaccine-preventable infectious diseases (VPDs) in Shanghai, China and to identify vulnerable groups that may benefit from future vaccination policies. Methods: Infectious disease data from 1953 to 2018 was obtained from Xuhui District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai China. We used joinpoint regression to show incidence, mortality and fatality trends and to determine annual percent change in incidence of 12 VPDs among three eras of national immunization strategies: (1)1953-1977, (2)1978-2007, and (3)2008-2018. Findings: Incidence, mortality, and fatality from VPDs have decreased drastically over the three eras, despite the inclusion of more diseases over time. Strikingly, the overall yearly incidence of VPDs shows an increasing trend from 2000 to 2018 in Shanghai (Annual percentage changes, APC: 7.7, p =0.025). In the third era (2008-2018), the three VPDs with the highest incidence were varicella (80.2 cases/100,000), hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) (73.6 cases /100,000), and hepatitis (43.5 cases /100,000). A significant upward trend was also observed in hepatitis (APC: 24.9, p <0.001), varicella (APC: 5.9, p =0.006), and HFMD (APC: 11.8, p =0.003) from 2008-2018. Hepatitis and tuberculosis are the only VPDs with fatality cases in this period. Interpretation: Focus is needed in controlling adult hepatitis and tuberculosis, either by introducing adult booster vaccines or by research into more effective vaccines. Varicella and HFMD are on the rise, but vaccines are not included in national programs. Strategies funded by government agencies or encouraged by research incentives are needed for varicella and HFMD, such as two-dose and novel multi-valent vaccines, respectively. Funding Statement: This work was supported by grants from the Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety (Fudan University), Ministry of Education, China [GW2019-9], and the Fourth Round of Three-Year Public Health Action Plan of Shanghai, China [15GWZK0101]. Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.
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