Mean Annual Water Temperature Research Articles

Thermokarst Lake to Lagoon Transitions in Eastern Siberia: Do Submerged Taliks Refreeze?

As the Arctic coast erodes, it drains thermokarst lakes, transforming them into lagoons, and, eventually, integrates them into subsea permafrost. Lagoons represent the first stage of a thermokarst lake transition to a marine setting and possibly more saline and colder upper boundary conditions. In this research, borehole data, electrical resistivity surveying, and modeling of heat and salt diffusion were carried out at Polar Fox Lagoon on the Bykovsky Peninsula, Siberia. Polar Fox Lagoon is a seasonally isolated water body connected to Tiksi Bay through a channel, leading to hypersaline waters under the ice cover. The boreholes in the center of the lagoon revealed floating ice and a saline cryotic bed underlain by a saline cryotic talik, a thin ice‐bearing permafrost layer, and unfrozen ground. The bathymetry showed that most of the lagoon had bedfast ice in spring. In bedfast ice areas, the electrical resistivity profiles suggested that an unfrozen saline layer was underlain by a thick layer of refrozen talik. The modeling showed that thermokarst lake taliks can refreeze when submerged in saltwater with mean annual bottom water temperatures below or slightly above 0°C. This occurs, because the top‐down chemical degradation of newly formed ice‐bearing permafrost is slower than the refreezing of the talik. Hence, lagoons may precondition taliks with a layer of ice‐bearing permafrost before encroachment by the sea, and this frozen layer may act as a cap on gas migration out of the underlying talik.

Effect of climate warming on a change in thermal and ice conditions in the largest lake in Poland – Lake Śniardwy

Abstract Lake Śniardwy is the largest among more than 7000 Polish lakes. So far, it has not been a subject of detailed investigations concerning long-term changes in water temperature or ice regime. A considerable change in thermal and ice conditions has been observed in the period 1972–2019. Mean annual water temperature increased by 0.44°C dec−1 on average, and was higher than an increase in air temperature (0.33°C dec−1). In the monthly cycle, the most dynamic changes occurred in April (0.77°C dec−1). In the case of ice cover, it appeared increasingly later (5.3 days dec−1), and disappeared earlier (3.0 days dec−1). The thickness of ice cover also decreased (2.4 cm dec−1). Statistical analysis by means of a Pettitt test showed that the critical moment for the transformations of the thermal and ice regime was the end of the 1980’s. In addition to the obvious relations with air temperature for both characteristics, it was evidenced that the occurrence of ice cover depended on wind speed and snow cover. The recorded changes in the case of Lake Śniardwy are considered unfavourable, and their consequences will affect the course of physical, chemical, and biological processes in the largest lake in Poland.

Ice formation on lake surfaces in winter causes warm-season bias of lacustrine brGDGT temperature estimates

Abstract. It has been frequently found that lacustrine branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGT)-derived temperatures are warm-season-biased relative to measured mean annual air temperature (AT) in the middle to high latitudes, the mechanism of which, however, is not very clear. Here, we investigated the brGDGTs from catchment soils, suspended particulate matter (SPM) and surface sediments in different water depths in Gonghai Lake in northern China to explore this question. Our results showed that the brGDGT distribution in sediments resembled that in the SPM but differed from the surrounding soils, suggesting a substantial aquatic origin of the brGDGTs in the lake. Moreover, the increase in brGDGT content and decrease in methylation index with water depth in sediments suggested more contribution of aquatic brGDGTs produced from deep or bottom waters. Therefore, established lake-specific calibrations were applied to estimate local mean annual AT. As usual, the estimates were significantly higher than the measured mean annual AT. However, they were similar to (and thus actually reflected) the mean annual lake water temperature (LWT). Interestingly, the mean annual LWT is close to the measured mean warm-season AT, thus suggesting that the apparent warm-season bias of lacustrine brGDGT-derived temperatures could be caused by the discrepancy between AT and LWT. In our study region, ice forms at the lake surface during winter, leading to isolation of the underlying lake water from air and hence higher LWT than AT, while LWT basically follows AT during warm seasons when ice disappears. Therefore, we think that lacustrine brGDGTs actually reflected the mean annual LWT, which is higher than the mean annual AT in our study location. Since the decoupling between LWT and AT in winter due to ice formation is a universal physical phenomenon in the middle to high latitudes, we propose this phenomenon could be also the reason for the widely observed warm-season bias of brGDGT-derived temperatures in other seasonally surface ice-forming lakes, especially in shallow lakes.

Effects of Disparate Water Temperatures and Food Bases on Humpback Chub Growth Rates within the Little Colorado River, Arizona

AbstractWe used translocation as a conservation measure to promote the recovery of an endangered freshwater fish species. We collected juvenile Humpback Chub Gila cypha from the lower 9.6 km of the Little Colorado River (LCR), Arizona, and translocated them upriver above a natural travertine structure called Chute Falls where the species was absent. The translocated fish were released at river kilometer (RKM) 16.2 above the mouth of the LCR. We measured growth rates across 14 size‐classes of Humpback Chub in three contiguous reaches of the LCR. Growth rates were usually highest in the 3.8‐km‐long reach above Chute Falls (translocation reach), slightly lower in a short 0.53‐km reach immediately below Chute Falls (Atomizer reach), and lowest in the lower 13.57 km of the LCR (lower reach). Most base flow of the LCR originates from relatively warm springs (20.6–22.8°C) that are located upriver from the translocation release site. The grand mean annual water temperature differences across eight years averaged 1.1°C/d warmer at RKM 16.2 than at RKM 1.05 and reflected a higher correlation to the growth rates of Humpback Chub in the translocation reach than in the lower reach. Moreover, this and other studies found that Humpback Chub's food base of prey fishes was also higher in the translocation reach than in the lower reach. High growth rates of juvenile Humpback Chub in the translocation and Atomizer reaches resulted in most reaching adulthood (200 mm TL) by age 2, a year earlier than most Humpback Chub in the lower reach did. Because higher growth rates of Humpback Chub in the translocation and Atomizer reaches provide a substantial head start for adult reproduction to commence, we suggest that translocating juvenile Humpback Chub to above Chute Falls is a management action that enhances recovery efforts of Humpback Chub in Grand Canyon, potentially at the population level.

Growth pattern and oxygen isotopic systematics of modern freshwater mollusks along an elevation transect: Implications for paleoclimate reconstruction

Fossil mollusk shells are widely distributed in the geologic records and their oxygen isotopic compositions have been used to reconstruct seasonality, local climatic and elevation conditions. However, interpretation of isotope data from fossil shells to estimate paleoclimate and elevation is often ambiguous. This study examines the oxygen isotopic systematics of modern freshwater gastropods (Bellamya and Radix) shells along an elevation/climate transect in the Asian monsoon region of China to improve the accuracy of paleoclimate and paleoelevation reconstruction using stable isotopes in fossil shells. The results from sclerochronological analyses of the shells show that the intra-shell oxygen isotopic pattern is determined by seasonal variations in lake water temperature and water isotopic composition as well as the life cycle of the organism. Both Bellamya and Radix appear to grow throughout the year in lakes where water temperature does not fall below 13 °C. Radix in the high elevation cold habitat, although prefers to grow in the warmer months, can survive through the freezing temperature. The δ18O patterns in the shells are similar across the elevation/climate transect, showing high δ18O values in the winter months and low δ18O values in the summer months, consistent with the expected pattern in Asian monsoon region. The average growth rates of the shells were highest at the lowest elevation site (warm and humid climate) but were similar at the mid to high elevation sites. For large shells (>2.2 cm for Bellamya and >1.4 cm for Radix), average growth temperatures, calculated using the aragonite oxygen isotope thermometer, closely approximate the annual mean water temperature while their intra-shell variability is a good proxy for the amplitude of seasonal variations in monthly air temperature. This suggests that large shells of both Bellamya and Radix are excellent archives of lake environmental conditions and most suitable for paleoenvironmental studies.

Water temperature drives variability in salmonfly abundance, emergence timing, and body size

AbstractFreshwater organisms are disproportionately impacted by climate change and human disturbance, resulting in shifts in species' distributions and life histories. We coupled contemporary and historical datasets documenting physical and ecological variables over four decades to quantify changes in the abundance, emergence timing, and body size of salmonflies (Pteronarcys californica) in the Madison River in southwest Montana. In contemporary surveys, water temperature was the main driver of salmonfly abundance, emergence timing, and body size. Salmonfly densities were negatively correlated with summer water temperature, which explained 60% of variation in larval density among sites, whereas substrate type played a negligible role. Emergence occurred 20 days earlier, and male and female exuvia length were 13.8% and 11.3% shorter, respectively, at the warmest site relative to the coolest site (4°C difference). These patterns were supported by historical data. For example, a 1.2°C increase in mean annual water temperature in the Madison River between 1977 and 2017 coincided with evidence for upstream range contraction. Between 1973 and 2017, emergence timing varied widely among years, occurring up to 41 days earlier in years when spring water temperatures were relatively warm. As climate change progresses, we predict that salmonflies could be extirpated from an additional 28 km of currently occupied habitat, representing a 22.6% reduction in suitable habitat along the Madison River. This study provides evidence of long‐term biological change of an aquatic insect and highlights the importance of combining spatial and historical datasets to better understand species' responses to environmental stressors across both space and time.

Phytoplankton functional composition shows higher seasonal variability in a large shallow lake after a eutrophic past

AbstractEutrophication is a well‐known problem of global proportions with some easily recognizable and potentially harmful effects on aquatic habitats, but our knowledge on the underlying associated changes in ecosystem functioning is rather limited. Relevant studies suggest that seasonal variability in the functional composition of phytoplankton shows an increase as eutrophication progresses. The aim of the present study was to test this hypothesis through the assessment of long‐term changes in the functional diversity and composition of phytoplankton in a large shallow lake situated in Central Europe with a history of dramatic changes in trophic state. Contrary to our expectations, results have shown that the maximum range of compositional variability had a significant negative correlation with the summer biomass maxima. On the other hand, average seasonal variability measured as annual beta diversity exhibited an increasing trend throughout the years from the period of early eutrophication to the recent period of reoligotrophication, seemingly following a decline in functional richness and a long‐term rise in annual mean water temperature. The enhanced variability in phytoplankton succession implies that all the ecosystem processes connected to the phytoplankton follow more complex seasonal dynamics. Besides changing community structure, trophic state also seems to be an important factor in setting the limits to compositional changes during the annual cycle, whereas long‐term warming is likely to enhance instability in the phytoplankton. The trajectories of these two factors and the changes in seasonal succession indicate a lake in transition, urging more in‐depth research efforts to understand the impact of climate change on this specific ecosystem, and raise the question of whether the observed changes can also occur in other similar aquatic systems.

The duration and magnitude of Cretaceous cool events: Evidence from the northern high latitudes

AbstractThe Early Cretaceous (145–100 Ma) was characterized by long-term greenhouse climates, with a reduced equatorial to polar temperature gradient, although an increasingly large body of evidence suggests that this period was punctuated by episodic global “cold snaps.” Understanding climate dynamics during this high-atmospheric CO2 period of Earth’s history may have significant impact on how we understand climatic feedbacks and predict future global climate changes under an anthropogenically-driven high-pCO2 atmosphere. This study utilizes facies analysis to constrain the paleobathymetry of Lower Cretaceous glendonites—a pseudomorph after ikaite, a mineral that forms naturally at 7 °C or lower—from two paleo-high-latitude (60–70°N) sites in Svalbard, Arctic Norway, to infer global climatic changes during the Early Cretaceous. The original ikaite formed in the offshore transition zone of a shallow marine shelf at water depths of <100 m, suggesting mean annual water temperatures of ≤7 °C at these depths at 60–70°N. We correlate glendonite-bearing horizons from Lower Cretaceous successions around the globe using carbon isotope stratigraphy, in conjunction with the pre-existing biostratigraphic framework, in order to infer northern hemispheric to global climatic cooling. A distinct interval of glendonites in the Northern Hemisphere, from sites >60°N, spans the late Berriasian to earliest Barremian (at least 8.6 m.y.), significantly prolonging the duration of the previously hypothesized Valanginian cold snap (associated with the “Weissert Event”). Widespread glendonites occur again in late Aptian and extend to the early Albian, in both hemispheres, corroborating other proxy evidence for late Aptian cooling. The glendonites from Svalbard suggest that Cretaceous cold episodes were characterized with high latitude (>60°N) shallow water temperatures that are consistent with the existence of a small northern polar ice cap at this time.

Long-term water temperature trends of the Warta River in the years 1960–2009

In the context of climate changes, detailed information concerning the response of different components of the environment to the observed situation is of high importance. Due to strong correlations of air and water temperatures, water ecosystems have been subject to a considerable transformation for several decades. The paper presents the analysis of long-term (1960-2009) water temperature fluctuations in the Warta River, third longest river in Poland. Based on six stations located along the bank of the Warta River, its thermal parameters and tendencies and rate of changes were determined. Moreover, based on data concerning air temperature, correlations between those two media were analysed. Water temperature in the Warta River over the last fifty years was characterised by low variability, ranging in the analysed stations from 9.5°C in Sieradz to 10.3°C in Poznan and Skwierzyna. The Mann-Kendall trend tests, Sen's slope estimator and the Pettitt test were applied to long-term time series of air and water temperature analysis. Long-term fluctuations of mean annual water temperatures were characterised by an increase (statistically significant, depending on the station at a level of p=0.05 and p=0.001) from 0.096 to 0.281°C.dec-1. Water temperature in the case of the analysed stations appears to be particularly determined by climatic factors, as suggested by very strong correlations with air temperature (from 0.82 to 0.94). Evident changes in the thermal regime of the Warta River in the context of functioning of the entire ecosystem should be considered unfavourable. The observed as well as future increase in water temperature will modify current processes occurring in the river, referring to among others water quality, composition of ichthyofauna, or hydrological conditions. Further temperature changes should be mitigated, by among others appropriate management of the riverbank zone (planting trees) and by increasing the share of forest areas in the catchment.

The impact of global warming on lake surface water temperature in Poland - the application of empirical-statistical downscaling, 1971-2100

The paper presents historical (1971-2015) and scenario-based (2006-2100) changes in surface water temperatures in 10 lakes of Poland. The analysis of historical measurement (1971-2015) showed that mean annual lake surface water temperature (LSWT) was characterised by an increasing tendency by 0.37°C∙dec-1 on average, and was higher by 0.01°C∙dec-1 than air temperature in the analogical period. The highest increase in LSWT was recorded in spring months (April, May) and in summer (July). The future changes in LSWT was based on simulations of 33 AOGCMs available in the scope of CMIP5 project for RCPs: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. The developed empirical-statistical downscaling models (ESD) use the air temperature field as predictors, with consideration of autocorrelation for two preceding months. ESD models are characterised by high quality of reconstruction of water temperatures in the historical period, with correlation from 0.82 (December, February) to 0.93 (July). The future CMIP5 scenarios for the period 2006-2100 assume an increase in air temperature at the end of the 21st century from +1.8°C (RCP 2.6) to +5.1°C (RCP 8.5) in reference to the period 1971-2005. According to the downscaling models, this corresponds to an increase in water temperature in the analysed lakes ranging from +1.4°C (RCP 2.6) to +4.2°C (RCP 8.5) in the years 2081-2100, respectively, with evident variability between the adopted emission paths beginning from the period 2041-2060. At a monthly scale, water temperature will increase the slowest in February (2081-2100: RCP 2.6 = +0.5°C, RCP 8.5 = +1.8°C). The highest increase in temperature will occur from May to August (RCP 8.5 = +6°C in June).Substantial effects of transformations of the thermal regime are already observed today, e,g. in the reduction of the ice season length. According to developed scenarios, a further considerable increase in water temperature will be the primary factor determining the transformation of lake ecosystems. The obtained results provide a theoretical basis for further research conducted in the scope of many disciplines, among others hydrology, hydrobiology, ecology, water management, energy production, etc. In the case of Poland, issues related to low water resources per capita are particularly important. Contemporary studies concerning changes in water resources showed that the natural factor playing the key role in their reduction is temperature increase and therefore it should constitute for the possibly fast development of multidisciplinary concepts of mitigation policy to potential impact of climate change.

Hydrological response and thermal effect of karst springs linked to aquifer geometry and recharge processes

To be better understand the hydrological and thermal behavior of karst systems in South China, seasonal variations in flow, hydrochemistry and stable isotope ratios of five karst springs were used to delineate flow paths and recharge processes, and to interpret their thermal response. Isotopic data suggest that mean recharge elevations are 200–820 m above spring outlets. Springs that originate from high elevations have lower NO3 − concentrations than those originating from lower areas that have more agricultural activity. Measured Sr2+ concentrations reflect the strontium contents of the host carbonate aquifer and help delineate the spring catchment’s saturated zone. Seasonal variations of NO3 − and Sr2+ concentrations are inversely correlated, because the former correlates with event water and the latter with baseflow. The mean annual water temperatures of springs were only slightly lower than the local mean annual surface temperature at the outlet elevations. These mean spring temperatures suggest a vertical gradient of ~6 °C/vertical km, which resembles the adiabatic lapse rate of the Earth’s stable atmosphere. Seasonal temperature variations in the springs are in phase with surface air temperatures, except for Heilongquan (HLQ) spring. Event-scale variations of thermal response are dramatically controlled by the circulation depth of karst systems, which determines the effectiveness of heat exchange. HLQ spring undergoes the deepest circulation depth of 820 m, and its thermal responses are determined by the thermally effective regulation processes at higher elevations and the mixing processes associated with thermally ineffective responses at lower elevations.

Effects of catchment area forestation on the temperature of river waters

Abstract The objective of this paper was to analyse the effects of catchment area forestation on the temperature of river waters. Two rivers, Czerna Wielka and Szprotawa, were covered in this research project and both are located in south-west Poland, running through the largest compact forest complex in the country, Bory Dolnośląskie. Both of the rivers are located within the same climatic region, and are similar in terms of their hydrology. Land use in the catchment area however is very diverse with 71.6% forest cover in the case of the Czerna Wielka River and direct contact of the forest with the river occurs over 68.3% of its length. For the Szprotawa River, the indices amount to only 39.3% and 21.6%, respectively. Data on the daily water temperatures for both of the rivers were obtained from the Hydrological Yearbooks of Surface Waters for the period 1969–1983. The mean annual water temperature in the analysed period in the case of the Czerna Wielka River amounted to 8.0°C, and in the case of the Szprotawa River it equalled 9.2°C. During the cooler half of the year (November-April), the mean water temperature for the entire examined period amounted to 3.8°C for Czerna Wielka, and 3.6°C for Szprotawa. Higher variability was recorded for the warmer seasons (May-October), where mean temperatures amounted to 12.1°C and 14.7°C, respectively. The obtained results concur with other similar research conducted around the world, and in the context of climate change are of practical value. The important role of forests in the moderation of thermal conditions is evidently unquestionable. Therefore, minimising the impact of unfavourable climatic changes on river ecosystems and their surroundings requires striving for appropriate forest management in the near-bank (buffer) zone along banks of both larger rivers and their tributaries

Secondary production of caddisflies reflects environmental heterogeneity among tropical Andean streams

Macroinvertebrate life history and secondary production have rarely been measured in tropical highland streams even though these streams are highly heterogeneous and display unique ecological settings compared to both those in the tropical lowlands or in the temperate zone. We evaluated secondary production and life history attributes of the periphyton grazer caddisfly (Helicopsyche spp.) using the size-frequency method in three Ecuadorian highland stream reaches (2990–3727 meters above sea level) with contrasting riparian vegetative characteristics and differing flow and temperature regimes and periphyton biomass (as chlorophyll-a). Helicopsyche displayed strong differences among streams in life history attributes and secondary production. We estimated the least productive reach (89 mg m−2 year−1) to be an order of magnitude less than that of the two more productive reaches (1556–2164 mg m−2 year−1). Secondary production positively correlated with annual mean periphyton biomass and negatively correlated with annual mean water temperature. Compared to previous studies, mean secondary production of Helicopsyche was relatively high. We conclude that Helicopsyche secondary production in tropical highland streams is highly heterogeneous among stream types. This strong variation among streams might ultimately depend on environmental factors influencing food availability (biomass of periphyton) and larval development rates (temperature regime).

Long-term changes in the hydrological regime of high mountain Lake Morskie Oko (Tatra Mountains, Central Europe)

Abstract The paper discusses changes in the hydrological regime of high mountain Lake Morskie Oko located in the Tatra Mountains, in the Tatra Mountains National Park, a UNESCO biosphere reserve (MaB). According to the research conducted in the years 1971–2015, its water stages decreased by 3.5 cm·dec−1, mean annual water temperature increased by 0.3°C·dec−1 and the duration of ice phenomena and ice cover was reduced by 10 day·dec−1. No considerable changes in maximum values of ice cover thickness were recorded. Such tendencies are primarily caused by long-term changes in climatic conditions – air temperature and atmospheric precipitation. The hydrological regime of the lake was also determined by changes in land use in the lake’s catchment and its location in high mountains.

Effect of climatic changes on the development of the thermal-ice regime based on the example of Lake Charzykowskie (Poland)

Abstract. The paper discusses the course of air temperature in the years 1961-2014 in Chojnice (Central European Lowland), and its effect on water temperature and occurrence of ice cover on Lake Charzykowskie. An increase in mean annual air temperature was determined by 0.31 o C per 10 years, and its even faster increase in the winter season (December-March), by 0.37 o C per 10 years on average. An increase in mean annual water temperature in the lake by 0.24 o C per 10 years also occurred. An increase in air and water temperature in winter months caused a reduction of the period of occurrence of ice cover. In the years 1961-2014, the persistence of ice cover was subject to a decrease by 3.7 days per 10 years on average, and the mean thickness of the ice cover decreased from 30 to 19 cm.

Effect of climatic changes on the development of the thermal-ice regime based on the example of Lake Charzykowskie (Poland)

Abstract The paper discusses the course of air temperature in the years 1961-2014 in Chojnice (Central European Lowland), and its effect on water temperature and occurrence of ice cover on Lake Charzykowskie. An increase in mean annual air temperature was determined by 0.31°C per 10 years, and its even faster increase in the winter season (December-March), by 0.37°C per 10 years on average. An increase in mean annual water temperature in the lake by 0.24°C per 10 years also occurred. An increase in air and water temperature in winter months caused a reduction of the period of occurrence of ice cover. In the years 1961-2014, the persistence of ice cover was subject to a decrease by 3.7 days per 10 years on average, and the mean thickness of the ice cover decreased from 30 to 19 cm.

Stabilization of benthic algal biomass in a temperate stream draining agroecosystems

Results of the present study quantified carbon sequestration due to algal stabilization in low order streams, which has not been considered previously in carbon stream ecosystem studies. The authors used empirical mode decomposition of an 8-year carbon elemental and isotope dataset to quantify carbon accrual and fingerprint carbon derived from algal stabilization. The authors then applied a calibrated, process-based stream carbon model (ISOFLOC) that elicits further evidence of algal stabilization. Data and modeling results suggested that processes of shielding and burial during an extreme hydrologic event enhance algal stabilization. Given that previous studies assumed stream algae are turned over or sloughed downstream, the authors performed scenario simulations of the calibrated model in order to assess how changing environmental conditions might impact algae stabilization within the stream. Results from modeling scenarios showed an increase in algal stabilization as mean annual water temperature increases ranging from 0 to 0.04 tC km−2 °C−1 for the study watershed. The dependence of algal stabilization on temperature highlighted the importance of accounting for benthic fate of carbon in streams under projected warming scenarios. This finding contradicts the evolving paradigm that net efflux of CO2 from streams increases with increasing temperatures. Results also quantified sloughed algae that is transported and potentially stabilized downstream and showed that benthos-derived sloughed algae was on the same order of magnitude, and at times greater, than phytoplankton within downstream water bodies.

Water temperature increases in the river Rhine in response to climate change

The present study analyzes climate change effects on the water temperature of the Rhine, one of the largest rivers in Central Europe. Simulation calculations were performed based on a range of climate and river flow projections for the near (2021–2050) and for the far future (2071–2100) compared to a reference period (1961–1990). Changes in mean annual water temperature in the near future range between +0.6 and +1.4 °C and between +1.9 and +2.2 °C in the far future (average of nine stations). Monthly mean values of the far future change in a more differentiated way by +0.4 to +1.3 °C in spring and +2.7 to +3.4 °C in late summer. The length of periods of high water temperature, expressed as successive days with water temperatures over 27 °C, increases by a factor of four until 2100. These prolonged durations of periods with unusually high water temperatures may provoke changes in the food web and in the rates of biological processes in the Rhine.

A model for sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) dynamics in a seasonally changing environment

Sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) are a significant source of monetary losses on salmon farms. Sea lice exhibit temperature-dependent development rates and salinity-dependent mortality, but to date no deterministic models have incorporated these seasonally varying factors. To understand how environmental variation and life history characteristics affect sea lice abundance, we derive a delay differential equation model and parameterize the model with environmental data from British Columbia and southern Newfoundland. We calculate the lifetime reproductive output for female sea lice maturing to adulthood at different times of the year and find differences in the timing of peak reproduction between the two regions. Using a sensitivity analysis, we find that sea lice abundance is more sensitive to variation in mean annual water temperature and mean annual salinity than to variation in life history parameters. Our results suggest that effective sea lice management requires consideration of site-specific temperature and salinity patterns and, in particular, that the optimal timing of production cycles and sea lice treatments might vary between regions.

Upwellings mitigated Plio-Pleistocene heat stress for reef corals on the Florida platform (USA)

Abstract. The fast growing calcareous skeletons of zooxanthellate reef corals (z corals) represent unique environmental proxy archives through their oxygen and carbon stable isotope composition (δ18O, δ13C). In addition, the accretion of the skeleton itself is ultimately linked to the environment and responds with variable growth rates (extension rate) and density to environmental changes. Here we present classical proxy data (δ18O, δ13C) in combination with calcification records from 15 massive z corals. The z corals were sampled from four interglacial units of the Florida carbonate platform (USA) dated approximately 3.2, 2.9, 1.8 and 1.2 Ma (middle Pliocene to early Pleistocene). The z corals (Solenastrea, Orbicella, Porites) derive from unlithified shallow marine carbonates and were carefully screened for primary preservation suited for proxy analysis. We show that skeletal accretion responded with decreasing overall calcification rates (decreasing extension rate but increasing density) to warmer water temperatures. Under high annual water temperatures, inferred from sub-annually resolved δ18O data, skeletal bulk density was high, but extension rates and overall calcification rates were at a minimum (endmember scenario 1). Maximum skeletal density was reached during the summer season giving rise to a growth band of high density within the annually banded skeletons (“high density band”, HDB). With low mean annual water temperatures (endmember scenario 2), bulk skeletal density was low but extension rates and calcification rates reached a maximum, and under these conditions the HDB formed during winter. Although surface water temperatures in the Western Atlantic warm pool during the interglacials of the late Neogene were ∼ 2 °C higher than they are in the present day, intermittent upwelling of cool, nutrient-rich water mitigated water temperatures off south-western Florida and created temporary refuges for z coral growth. Based on the sub-annually resolved δ18O and δ13C records, the duration of the upwelling episodes causing the endmember 2 conditions was variable and lasted from a few years to a number of decades. The episodes of upwelling were interrupted by phases without upwelling (endmember 1) which lasted for at least a few years and led to high surface water temperatures. This variable environment is likely one of the reasons why the coral fauna is dominated by the eurytopic genus Solenastrea, also a genus resistant to high turbidity. Over a period of ∼ 50 years, the oldest sub annually resolved proxy record available (3.2 Ma) documents a persistent occurrence of the HDB during winter. In contrast, the HDB forms in summer in modern z corals from the Florida reef tract. We suggest this difference should be tested as being the expression of a tendency towards decreasing interglacial upwelling since the middle Pliocene. The number of z coral sclerochronological records for the Plio-Pleistocene is still rather low, however, and requires more data and an improved resolution, through records from additional time slices. Nonetheless, our calcification data from the warm periods of past interglacials may contribute to predicting the effects of future ocean warming on z coral health along the Florida reef tract. The inconsistent timing of the HDB within single coral records or among specimens and time slices is unexpected and contrasts the common practice of establishing chronologies on the basis of the density banding.