Annual Deficit Research Articles

Analysis of the Propagation Characteristics of Meteorological Drought to Hydrological Drought and Their Joint Effects on Low-Flow Drought Variability in the Oum Er Rbia Watershed, Morocco

Analysis of the temporal relationship between meteorological drought and hydrological drought is crucial in monitoring water resource availability. This study examined the linear and lagged relationships of the spread of meteorological drought to hydrological drought and their joint effects on low-flow drought variability in the Oum Er-Rbia (OER) watershed. To this end, random forest (RF) model and statistical methods were used to study the characteristics of the temporal relationships between meteorological and hydrological drought indices at monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. The various analyses revealed that the relationship between hydrological and meteorological drought is mainly a function of the time scale considered, the choice of indices to describe each type of drought and the season considered. The hydrological drought of surface water and snow cover is synchronized with the meteorological drought at the monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. In contrast, the transition from meteorological drought to groundwater drought has a lag time of 1 month and is statistically significant up to t − 5 and t + 5, i.e., 6 months. The linear correlation between the annual rainfall deficit and the monthly groundwater storage index was the lowest (0.15) in December and the highest (0.83) in March. This suggests a seasonal response of groundwater drought to the cumulative effects of precipitation deficits. The RF analysis highlighted the importance of the cumulative characteristics of meteorological drought regarding the severity of low-flow drought. The meteorological drought indices at longer time scales have a greater impact on the severity of low-flow drought, with a contribution of approximately 10% per index. However, the relative contributions of meteorological factors and hydrological indices rarely exceed 5%. Thus, by exploring for the first time the complex interactions among the severity of low-flow regimes, meteorological and hydrological drought indices and meteorological factors, this study provides a new perspective for understanding the characteristics of propagation from meteorological to severe hydrological drought.

Drought before fire increases tree mortality after fire

AbstractFire and drought are expected to increase in frequency and severity in temperate forests due to climate change. To evaluate whether drought increases the likelihood of post‐fire tree mortality, we used a large database of tree survival and mortality from 32 years of wildland fires covering four dominant western North American conifers. We used Bayesian hierarchical modeling to predict the probability of individual tree mortality after fire based on species—Pinus contorta (lodgepole pine), Abies concolor (white fir), Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas‐fir), and Pinus ponderosa (ponderosa pine)—bark thickness, bark char, percentage live tree crown scorched or consumed crown volume scorch (CVS), and mean annual climatic water deficit (CWD) anomalies the year pre‐fire and fire year relative to the 1985–2015 reference period. Although crown injury was the primary determinant of tree mortality after fire, drought increased likelihood of death, with a 2‐SD increase in CWD (+115.7) resulting in a 78% increase in the probability of mortality. We assessed the crown scorch level expected to result in >50% probability of mortality under different CWD scenarios: observed CWD, CWD of +2, and +4°C warming scenarios. Increased climatic moisture stress amplified tree death, reducing the threshold that causes tree mortality across all conifers under +4°C warming, with more subtle and species‐specific reductions for the +2°C scenario. Models predicting post‐fire tree mortality are components of global and regional carbon estimates, habitat suitability assessments, and forest management planning and decision support systems. The amplifying effects of drought on post‐fire tree mortality and predicted future climates are likely to lead to higher tree mortality following fires in forested landscapes of western North America and may have cascading effects on ecosystem services and future forest resilience.

Agronomic performance of Arabica coffee cultivars for the low-altitude region

Abstract Temperature increase may cause some regions in the world to become marginal or unsuitable for Arabica coffee cultivation, due to either heat and/or marked water deficit. The feasibility of sustainable coffee production in these regions promotes good opportunity of income and value addition for rural producers within an expanding market. This study aimed to identify short-stature Arabica coffee cultivars with the best agronomic and qualitative performance in a low-altitude region. The experiment was located in northeastern São Paulo state, Brazil, at 565 m above sea level. During the experimental period (2014–2018) the average annual and November temperatures were 23.0 and 24.3°C, respectively, with an average annual water deficit of 109 mm. The experimental design was randomized blocks, with four replicates, and the treatments consisted of 17 short-stature cultivars. The cultivars Catuaí Amarelo IAC 62, Catuaí Vermelho IAC 99, IAC Ouro Amarelo, Obatã IAC 1669-20, Obatã IAC 4739, Tupi IAC 1699-33, IAC 125 RN and IPR 100 stood out in terms of yield, reaching approximately 50 bags/ha. The appropriate choice of Arabica coffee cultivar in a low-altitude region may result in yield increment of up to 74%. The cultivars Catuaí Vermelho IAC 99, Tupi IAC 1699-33 and IAC 125 RN produced grains with the best quality and highest hundred-grain weight, processing yield and percentage of grains retained on sieve 17. Therefore, it is possible for an Arabica coffee cultivar to have high yield and high grain and beverage quality in a low-altitude region, promoting production alternatives for farmers.

Persistent Water Scarcity Due To High Irrigation Demand in Arid China: A Case Study in the North Slope of the Tianshan Mountains

AbstractWater scarcity is a critical threat in arid regions in China due to dry climate and rising human water demand. The sustainability of a recent wetter trend and its impact on future water security remain uncertain. This case study focuses on a hotspot region, the North Slope of the Tianshan Mountains (NSTM), to assess water scarcity in the coming decades (2030–2050) under two climate scenarios. To this end, we developed an integrated agro‐hydrological model to simulate historical and future hydrological processes and crop water dynamics in arid regions. Our results indicate nonsignificant increases in precipitation (around 3%) and evident rising temperatures (0.9–1.5°C) in the NSTM compared to the present‐day (2011–2020) climate. This translates to a projected increase in water availability (5.6%–11.2%) during 2030–2050, with slightly larger increases (6.3%–14%) in glacier runoff. However, the spatial mismatch between precipitation increases and water demand makes this potential gain largely offset by rising irrigation water demand (over 7%) if cropland remains constant from 2020 onwards. As a result, the current annual water deficit (3.3 km3) is likely to increase by 5%–11%, with 32% of NSTM basins facing persistent water scarcity. Most croplands are at high risk of groundwater depletion and 17%–34% of basins will experience intensified water scarcity. These findings highlight the urgent need for comprehensive water management strategies, including improved irrigation efficiency and exploration of alternative water sources, to ensure water security and sustainable development in arid China facing a changing climate.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFLATION, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND BUDGET DEFICIT IN TÜRKİYE

Like in the past, inflation remains one of the most significant concepts affecting the welfare levels of countries today. Especially during economic crises, the price instability and high inflation rates experienced have compelled countries to work in this area. The characteristics of variables related to inflation have been studied, and many theories have emerged. Just as there are many macroeconomic factors affecting inflation, there are also macroeconomic components affected by inflation. It is crucial to determine the direction of the relationship between economic variables, as there can be both one-way and two-way relationships among these components. Policymakers aim to keep inflation levels as low as possible by shaping their policies according to these relationships. This way, countries strive to achieve minimal inflation, fostering economic growth and maintaining budget balance. Examining the relationship between inflation, economic growth, and budget deficits is essential not only for price stability but also for reducing external dependency and positively influencing growth. This study utilizes annual inflation, budget deficit, and economic growth data for Turkey from 1990 to 2022 to analyze the relationships among these variables using econometric methods. In accordance to the results of the causality analysis, a unidirectional causality from growth to inflation and from inflation to budget deficit has been identified. This suggests that growth triggers inflation, and inflation, in turn, triggers budget deficits.

Internal Audit of an Oral Pathology Laboratory: Perspectives on Finances and Operational Management.

Background Internal audits are essential tools for enhancing the operational efficiency, quality, and effectiveness of healthcare departments. Audits enable the departments and laboratories to meet the changing needs of the healthcare environment by giving a detailed picture of the department's operations and highlighting areas for possible growth and development. Aims and objectives This study focuses on the biopsies received in the Oral Pathology Department at Saveetha Dental College, aiming to evaluate biopsy trends, financial performance, and resource utilization over one year. Materials and methods The oral pathology department audit covered the period from 1st April 2023 to 31st March 2024. The institutional human ethical committee and scientific review board approved the retrospective audit. It involved a comprehensive analysis of biopsy data, financial records, and material usage. Data on different biopsy types (excisional, incisional, frozen sections), immunohistochemistry, cytology, and special stains were collected and analyzed across four quarters. Financial performance was assessed by comparing total income and expenses, while resource utilization was examined through the use of histopathological blocks and other consumables. Statistical analysis (chi-square) was performed using IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, Version 23 (Released 2015; IBM Corp., Armonk, New York, United States). A P-value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results We received 1100 cases during the study period. Excisional biopsies were the most common, with 474 (43.09%) cases, followed by incisional biopsies with a total of 432 (39.27%). Out of total cases of 1100, the second quarter (July-September 2023) had the highest case volume of 305 (27.72%), while the third quarter (October-December 2023) recorded the lowest of 250 (22.72%) cases. A financial audit revealed an annual deficit of ₹1,03,321 primarily due to higher expenses towards laboratory reagents. The overall expense incurred per case was ₹448.5. Tissue blocks cost ₹85.23 per case (19.00%) of the average cost per case. The chi-square test analysis was insignificant among the different types of biopsies and the reagent consumption across the four quarters. Conclusion The audit identified critical areas for improvement in both clinical workload and financial management. High volumes of biopsies, but net financial deficits highlight the need for better cost management and resource utilization strategies to maintain sustainability without compromising diagnostic quality.

Evaluasi Dan Modifikasi Pola Tata Tanam Daerah Irigasi Prako Berdasarkan Ketersediaan Air

Prako Weir in East Lombok Regency has limited water availability, which affects its ability to serve the provision of irrigation water. Failure to meet irrigation water needs is increasingly felt, so adaptation steps are needed to reduce more significant losses at the farmer level. This study aims to evaluate the current cropping pattern and obtain alternative cropping patterns that are more appropriate according to water availability in Prako Weir to minimize the potential for farmer crop failure. The study began by analysing water availability by calculating the mainstay discharge using a ranking method using Prako Weir discharge data. Continued analysing water requirements in the current cropping pattern and several alternative cropping patterns using the KP-01 method. Furthermore, the best cropping pattern was selected using the water balance method. The results obtained were the best cropping pattern according to the water availability pattern in Prako Weir, namely Rice-Soybeans-Soybeans, which began planting in early October, with an annual water surplus of 775.24 l/second. Meanwhile, the current cropping pattern, Rice-Rice-Soybeans, shows an annual deficit of 625.31 lt/second. However, if economic considerations are used, then the current planting pattern is still acceptable even though it is at risk of being unable to meet its water needs. However, a solution can be taken by providing water in turns.

Adaptive (re)operations facilitate environmental flow maintenance downstream of multi-purpose reservoirs

Multi-purpose reservoirs support socioeconomic development by providing irrigation, domestic water supply, hydropower, and other services. However, impoundment of water impacts instream aquatic ecosystems. Thus, the concept of minimum environmental flows (MEFs) was established to restore the benefits of naturally flowing rivers by specifying minimum flow rates to be maintained downstream of dams. But varying legislative contexts under which multi-purpose reservoirs operate may not always necessitate MEF releases. To what extent the release of MEF affects other sectoral benefits remains an open-ended and possibly a site-specific inquiry. A related issue is − how does the order in which releases are prioritized influences sectoral performances? We analyse these issues for the Nagarjuna Sagar reservoir, one of the largest multipurpose reservoirs in southern India. We formulate two versions of a multi-objective decision problem. PF_MEF formulation prioritizes MEF releases over releases for water demand satisfaction, followed by hydropower releases. PF_nMEF formulation follows the regional legislative rule releasing first for demand satisfaction, followed by hydropower and MEF releases. The objectives include: annual demand deficits (minimize), hydropower production (maximize), reliability of maintaining MEF (maximize), and reliability of non-exceedance of high flows downstream (maximize). A dynamic rule using radial basis functions (RBFs) specifies releases as a function of reservoir storage and the Borg multi-objective evolutionary algorithm is used to identify the Pareto approximate solutions. The reliability of MEF satisfaction, annual demand deficits, and hydropower production attained across the Pareto-optimal strategies obtained for PF_MEF (PF_nMEF) formulation is 86–99 % (63–80%), 47–1063 (17.6–340) Mm3, and 3452–3703 (3408–3650) GWh, respectively. Results thus indicate that prioritizing MEF releases improves can meet MEF requirements without significant compromises in other objectives. We hypothesize that similar investigations may reveal how simple modification of release order may improve ability of other reservoirs to meet environmental goals.

Regional Differences in Carbon Budgets and Inter-Regional Compensation Zoning: A Case Study of Chongqing, China

Carbon compensation can guide human activities in reducing carbon emissions or increasing carbon sequestration and also represents an important approach for coordinating regional development. In this paper, Chongqing Municipality, whose internal development is varied, was selected as a case study. The annual carbon emissions, carbon sequestration, carbon deficits, and inter-regional carbon compensation costs from 2000 to 2021 were continuously estimated via local optimization methods, and a carbon compensation zoning scheme was proposed that integrates the present situation and trend analysis. The results show that (1) Chongqing’s total carbon emissions were greater than the total carbon sequestration, and the carbon deficit was approximately 556.24 × 104 t~3621.58 × 104 t. (2) County-level carbon budgets have large regional differences; the counties that should always receive carbon compensation are from the southeast and northeast regions, and the counties that should always pay carbon compensation are from central urban areas and the surrounding new urban areas. (3) All the counties were zoned into key payment areas, basic payment areas, key recipient areas, and basic recipient areas. The key payment areas, which account for 39.47%, maintain and grow payment status and are the main sources of carbon compensation costs, while the key recipient areas, which account for 44.74%, maintained a negative compensation status and a continuous downward trend, meaning that they may receive increasing carbon compensation costs. This paper revealed inequities in carbon compensation and proposed a novel zoning solution, which can provide scientific reference and data support for further establishing inter-regional carbon compensation mechanisms.

Measuring and Analysis the Relationship between the Internal Public Debt and the Exchange Rate in the Iraqi Economy for The Period 2004 – 2022

The scholastic view of public religion differed, and this difference was on two extremes. Alleconomic schools agreed that public debt is a monetary liquidity that was unjustly deductedfrom the income and output cycle as a result of the imbalance in the economic balance and thedeparture from the conditions of balance between aggregate demand and aggregate supply.Debt is a waste of financial resources allocated to productive accumulation. Except for theKeynesian school, which considers public debt to be an addition to aggregate demand after thedecline in the role of the private sector in investment as a result of pessimistic expectations thatwarn of signs of economic contraction. Public debt is linked to the exchange rate through theinterest rate channel, so that public debt causes competition for financial resources. Thiscompetition results in an increase in the local interest rate, which results in an increase indemand for the local currency with the aim of increasing investment, and the demand for thelocal currency raises the price of the local currency. Which means that there is an indirectrelationship between public debt and the exchange rate, but this relationship may create damagein the balance of payments in the near future. They assumed the existence of a long-term causalrelationship between internal public debt and the exchange rate. The main goal of this researchis to verify the economic relationship between the investigated variables, using thecointegration model and the error term correction vector model to prove the researchhypothesis. And the Kranger model of causality between the variables. The research reachedthe most prominent conclusion, which is that individual expectations for the internal publicdebt after each annual deficit in the state’s general budget cause a decrease in the value of thelocal currency due to the increase in demand for the dollar and the decrease in demand for thedinar, which means that there is causality in one direction. From internal public debt to theexchange rate, this is what was proven by the results of Kranger’s causality test.

Performance of protected areas in conserving African elephants

AbstractProtected areas have been gazetted to protect natural resources and biodiversity, but evaluations of effectiveness rarely include measures of species population change. We compiled annual site‐level spending and elephant population data for 102 protected areas conserving either savannah (Loxodonta africana) or forest (Loxodonta cyclotis) elephants, which showed a median annual population decline of −0.78% across the protected areas. Site‐level population change was strongly associated with funding and government effectiveness. Annual funding deficits occurred in 78% of the protected areas, and when comparing necessary levels of annual spend to stabilize elephant populations, we estimate a US$1.5 billion annual funding deficit across all the protected areas. While financial investment can improve elephant conservation outcomes, there is still a need to identify where and how to best finance elephant poaching interventions, requiring a global commitment to improve the socioeconomic impacts of protected areas on local communities and reduce ivory demand.

The influence of human activities on streamflow reductions during the megadrought in central Chile

Abstract. Since 2010, central Chile has experienced a protracted megadrought with annual precipitation deficits ranging from 25 % to 70 %. An intensification of drought propagation has been attributed to the effect of cumulative precipitation deficits linked to catchment memory. Yet, the influence of water extractions on drought intensification is still unclear. Our study assesses climate and water use effects on streamflow reductions during a high-human-influence period (1988–2020) in four major agricultural basins. We performed this attribution by contrasting observed streamflow (driven by climate and water use) with near-natural streamflow simulations (driven mainly by climate) representing what would have occurred without water extractions. Near-natural streamflow estimations were obtained from rainfall–runoff models trained over a reference period with low human intervention (1960–1988). Annual and seasonal streamflow reductions were examined before and after the megadrought onset, and hydrological drought events were characterized for the complete evaluation period in terms of their frequency, duration, and intensity. Our results show that before the megadrought onset (1988–2009) the mean annual deficits in observed streamflow ranged between 2 % and 20 % across the study basins and that 81 % to 100 % of those deficits were explained by water extractions. During the megadrought (2010–2020), the mean annual deficits in observed streamflow were 47 % to 76 % among the basins. During this time, the relative contribution of precipitation deficits on streamflow reduction increased while the contribution of water extractions decreased, accounting for 27 % to 51 % of the streamflow reduction. Regarding drought events during the complete evaluation period, we show that human activities have amplified drought propagation, with almost double the intensity of hydrological droughts in some basins compared to those expected by precipitation deficits only. We conclude that while the primary cause of streamflow reductions during the megadrought has been the lack of precipitation, water uses have not diminished during this time, causing an exacerbation of the hydrological drought conditions and aggravating their impacts on water accessibility in rural communities and natural ecosystems.

Projected wind and solar energy potential in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in 2050

The ongoing energy transition from conventional fuels to renewable energy sources (RES) has given nations the potential to achieve levels of energy self-sufficiency previously thought unattainable. RES in the form of utility-scale solar and wind energy are currently the leading alternatives to fossil-fuel generation. Precise location siting that factors in efficiency limitations related to current and future climate variables is essential for enabling the green energy transition envisioned for 2050. In this context, understanding and mapping the intermittency of RES provides insights to energy system operators for their seamless integration into the grid. The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region has the potential to harness vast amounts of RES. The scarcity of observations from weather station networks and the lack of private sector incentives for transitioning to RES mean that relevant, supporting weather and climate studies have been limited. This study employs the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-CHEM) to estimate the RES technical potential of EMME countries and map the hourly generation profiles per source and country, simulated for the reference year 2015 and considering future conditions. The findings indicate that by 2050, seven countries within the region could transform into net energy exporters, while the remaining nine might remain reliant on energy imports or fossil fuels. Egypt emerges as a “powerhouse”, potentially enjoying a potential surplus energy generation of 76 GW per hour, whereas the United Arab Emirates may face an annual deficit of 955 TWh. Further, we derived the hourly generation profiles for wind and solar during different seasons. Four dominant patterns were identified. We find a complementary relationship for six countries, and for four countries, a substitute relationship between solar and wind energy generation. Greece stands out with a near-constant wind energy source, which would facilitate its integration into the national grid.

Hydrological regimes and evaporative flux partitioning at the climatic ends of high mountain Asia

Abstract High elevation headwater catchments are complex hydrological systems that seasonally buffer water and release it in the form of snow and ice melt, modulating downstream runoff regimes and water availability. In High Mountain Asia (HMA), where a wide range of climates from semi-arid to monsoonal exist, the importance of the cryospheric contributions to the water budget varies with the amount and seasonal distribution of precipitation. Losses due to evapotranspiration and sublimation are to date largely unquantified components of the water budget in such catchments, although they can be comparable in magnitude to glacier melt contributions to streamflow. Here, we simulate the hydrology of three high elevation headwater catchments in distinct climates in HMA over 10 years using an ecohydrological model geared towards high-mountain areas including snow and glaciers, forced with reanalysis data. Our results show that evapotranspiration and sublimation together are most important at the semi-arid site, Kyzylsu, on the northernmost slopes of the Pamir mountain range. Here, the evaporative loss amounts to 28% of the water throughput, which we define as the total water added to, or removed from the water balance within a year. In comparison, evaporative losses are 19% at the Central Himalayan site Langtang and 13% at the wettest site, 24 K, on the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau. At the three sites, respectively, sublimation removes 15%, 13% and 6% of snowfall, while evapotranspiration removes the equivalent of 76%, 28% and 19% of rainfall. In absolute terms, and across a comparable elevation range, the highest ET flux is 413 mm yr−1 at 24 K, while the highest sublimation flux is 91 mm yr−1 at Kyzylsu. During warm and dry years, glacier melt was found to only partially compensate for the annual supply deficit.

Developing climate change adaptation pathways in the agricultural sector based on robust decision-making approach (case study: Sefidroud Irrigation Network, Iran).

Allocation of water in the situation of climate change presents various uncertainties. Consequently, decisions must be made to ensure stability and functionality across different climatic scenarios. This study aims to examine the effectiveness of adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector, including a 5% increase in irrigation efficiency (S1) and a shift in irrigation method to Dry-DSR (direct seeded rice) under conditions of climatic uncertainty using a decision-making approach. The study focuses on the basin downstream of the Sefidroud dam, encompassing the Sefidroud irrigation and drainage network. Initially, basin modeling was conducted using the WEAP integrated management software for the period 2006-2020. Subsequently, the impact of climate change was assessed, considering RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emission scenarios on surface water resources from 2021 to 2050. Runoff and cultivated area, both subject to uncertainty, were identified as key parameters. To evaluate strategy performance under different uncertainties and determine the efficacy of each strategy, regret and satisfaction approaches were employed. Results indicate a projected decrease in future rainfall by 3.5-11.8% compared to the base period, accompanied by an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures (0.83-1.62 °C and 1.15-1.33 °C, respectively). Inflow to the Sefidroud dam is expected to decrease by 13-28%. Presently, the Sefidroud irrigation and drainage network faces an annual deficit of 505.4 MCM, and if current trends persist with the impact of climate change, this shortfall may increase to 932.7 MCM annually. Furthermore, satisfaction indices for strategy (S2) are 0.77 in an optimistic scenario and 0.70 in strategy (S1). In a pessimistic scenario, these indices are 0.67 and 0.56, respectively. Notably, changing the irrigation method with Dry-DSR is recommended as a robust strategy, demonstrating the ability to maintain basin stability under a broad range of uncertainties and climate change scenarios. It is crucial to note that the results solely highlight the effects of climate change on water sources entering the Sefidroud dam. Considering anthropogenic activities upstream of the Sefidroud basin, water resource shortages are expected to increase. Therefore, reallocating water resources and implementing practical and appropriate measures in this area are imperative.

The Analysis of Lawn Rebate Programs and Drought Tolerant Lawn Recommendations in California

California faces persistent cyclical droughts that are expected to worsen due to climate change. The state currently operates in an overall annual water deficit, and projections suggest a 10% reduction in water availability by 2040. To combat these water shortages, Governor Newsom's administration has unveiled a water supply strategy with substantial investments in water conservation policies, including rebate initiatives to encourage residents to replace lawns with drought-tolerant (DT) plants and non-living hardscapes. However, questions have arisen about the overall effectiveness and environmental impact of these costly programs. This study delves into the potential consequences of replacing living lawns with non-living hardscapes, specifically whether it might elevate local microclimate temperatures, akin to urban heat islands (UHI) caused by the substitution of natural land cover with man-made, impermeable surfaces. The research examines existing rebate programs across the state, assessing their reimbursement structures and variations. Surface temperatures of commonly recommended lawn alternatives are measured and compared, including comparisons between different alternatives and drought-tolerant ground cover plants. Additionally, the study includes an experiment involving a drought-tolerant ground cover seed mix to replace a traditional lawn. The findings indicate that hardscape lawn alternatives generate significantly higher temperatures than any of the drought-tolerant ground cover plants analyzed. Furthermore, there is notable temperature variability among the hardscapes studied. Consequently, this paper proposes modifications to the existing rebate programs and emphasizes the importance of ensuring that environmental solutions introduced to address one issue do not inadvertently exacerbate related problems.

Divergent trajectories of future global gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration of terrestrial vegetation in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Understanding the future trends of carbon and water fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere is crucial for predicting Earth's climate dynamics. This study employs an advanced numerical approach to project global gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) from 2001 to 2100 under various climate scenarios based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). To improve predictions of vegetation dynamics, we introduce a novel model (CoLM-PVPM), an enhancement of the Common Land Model version 2014 (CoLM2014), incorporating a prognostic vegetation phenology model (PVPM). Compared to CoLM2014 that relies on satellite-based leaf area index (LAI) inputs, CoLM-PVPM predicts LAI time series using climate variables. Model validation using historical data from 2001 to 2010 demonstrates PVPM in capturing spatiotemporal variations in satellite LAI. Our modeling results indicate that annual averaged LAI and total GPP increase under SSP1–2.6 but decrease under SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5 by 2100. By comparison, annual total ET consistently increases under all SSP scenarios by 2100. Global annual averaged LAI is highly correlated with annual total GPP in all scenarios, while its correlation with annual total ET weakens in SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5. Global annual total vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and precipitation are highly correlated with annual total ET in all scenarios. As emission levels increase, the negative correlation between annual total VPD and GPP strengthens, while the correlation between annual total precipitation and GPP weakens. This research presents an improved model for predicting terrestrial vegetation processes and underscores the importance of low carbon emission scenarios in maintaining carbon-water balances in specific regions.

The methodology of defining scarce resources of economy

The purpose of this work is to develop a methodology for identifying scarce industries based on the system of “Input — Output” tables. The theoretical basis of the study is the basic assumptions and principles of macroeconomics and economic theory. With close interconnection of all spheres of the economy, sectors that are in a state of deficit can have a negative impact on other elements of the system, including those that are strategically important for the state. The reason for the deficit is the inability to meet the consumer demand by the industries that experience the lack of production capacity. Thus, the timely identification of such industries is a crucial task for government agencies in order to promptly develop a set of preventive measures. The paper proposes the method to determine the optimal price, the deviation from which signals the rise or fall in scarcity. The calculation of the optimal price is carried out by finding the point of maximum added value of the industry for a given demand function. The model takes into account factors such as its elasticity and changes in the level of economic costs of production. Model experiments demonstrate the effect of a change in the slope coefficient of this function on the dynamics of the scarcity of industries. We also carried out the analysis of average annual and cumulative deficit in Russia, as well as the peculiarities of the behavior of each of the sectors presented in the “Input — Output” tables. Finally, the authors assess the degree of influence of global financial shocks, such as the 2008 crisis, on industries with elastic and inelastic demand. This model can be applied by the public sector in analyzing the current economic situation and creation of a financial development strategy.

A system dynamics model and analytical hierarchy process: an integrated approach for achieving sustainable solid waste management system.

Waste management in low-income countries faces challenges with an average cost of $35/ton approximately 51% collection efficiency. Despite investments in treatment, processing, and recycling, the system remains unsustainable owing to poor planning and policies. The current analysis of Lahore's solid waste management (SWM) system, selected as a major city of a low-income country as a case study, focuses on collection efficiency and waste generation. However, it neglects the complex and dynamic nature of SWM systems. To capture the complexities and dynamic nature of the SWM system, system dynamic (SD) modeling is proposed for its effectiveness in modeling complex and dynamic systems. Unlike previous attempts at SD modeling that mostly consider only some components of the SWM system with varying success, this study attempts to use a holistic approach by considering all aspects of an integrated SWM system. In addition, this study explores different financial and management policies, highlighting the weaknesses of the system through a quantitative comparison of three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU) which considers the current trends in waste generation and practices of collection and disposal to landfill, (2) waste treatment system (WTS) in which various waste treatment systems are included to reduce burden on landfill, and (3) introduction of user fee with awareness campaigns (UFAC) which encourages community participation towards reduction in waste generation and financially supports the SWM. All three scenarios use four indices: waste generation, waste ending up in landfill, uncollected waste, and annual budget deficit as performance indices. These scenarios were simulated over a 25-year period using an SD model, covering all six components of the SWM system. The BAU scenario shows a 16% increase in waste generation, a 173% increase in landfill waste, an 11% reduction in uncollected waste, and a 64% increase in the budget deficit over the simulation period, indicating an unsustainable SWM system. The WTS scenario exhibits a 16% increase in waste generation, a 155% increase in landfill waste, an 11% reduction in uncollected waste, and a 61% increase in the budget deficit, showing a significant reduction in landfill waste and a slight reduction in deficit but it remains unsustainable. The UFAC scenario, however, results in a 40% reduction in waste generation, a 67% decrease in uncollected waste, an 8% decrease in landfill waste, and a 59% decrease in the budget deficit. These results demonstrate that instituting user fees for SWM services and incentivizing community participation towards waste reduction and segregation can make the SWM system of Lahore sustainable. This SD model provides insights for policymakers, aiding what-if analyses and long/short-term waste management plans for metropolitan cities in low-income countries. To validate the sustainability judgments based on performance indices, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) tool commonly used for ranking policy decisions based on competing criteria, was employed. It considered the same four criteria as in the SD model. The results of the AHP analysis aligned with those of the SD model, ranking the UFAC scenario as the most sustainable option.

Understanding the vulnerability of surface–groundwater interactions to climate change: insights from a Bavarian Forest headwater catchment

Headwaters play a crucial role in maintaining forest biodiversity by providing unique habitats and are important for the regulation of water temperature and oxygen levels for downstream river networks. Approximately 90% of the total length of streams globally originate from headwaters and these systems are discussed to be especially vulnerable to impacts of climate change. This study uses an integrated hydrological model (HydroGeoSphere) in combination with 23 downscaled ensemble members from representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 to examine how climate change affects water availability in a headwater catchment under baseflow conditions. The simulations consistently predict increasing water deficits in summer and autumn for both the near (2021–2050) and far future (2071–2099). Annual mean water deficits were estimated to be 4 to 7 times higher than historical levels. This is mainly due to a projected reduction in precipitation inputs of up to – 22%, while AET rates remain similar to those observed during the historical reference period (1992–2018). The declining groundwater storage reserves within the catchment are expected to result in a significant decline in surface water availability during summer and autumn, with a reduction in mean annual stream discharge by up to 34% compared to the reference period. Due to declining groundwater levels, upstream reaches are predicted to become intermittent in summer leading to a reduction of the total stream flow length by up to 200 m. Findings from this study will enhance our understanding of future water availability in headwater systems and may aid in the development of effective management strategies for mitigating local impacts of climate change and preserving these vulnerable ecosystems.