Divergent trajectories of future global gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration of terrestrial vegetation in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Abstract

Understanding the future trends of carbon and water fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere is crucial for predicting Earth's climate dynamics. This study employs an advanced numerical approach to project global gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) from 2001 to 2100 under various climate scenarios based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). To improve predictions of vegetation dynamics, we introduce a novel model (CoLM-PVPM), an enhancement of the Common Land Model version 2014 (CoLM2014), incorporating a prognostic vegetation phenology model (PVPM). Compared to CoLM2014 that relies on satellite-based leaf area index (LAI) inputs, CoLM-PVPM predicts LAI time series using climate variables. Model validation using historical data from 2001 to 2010 demonstrates PVPM in capturing spatiotemporal variations in satellite LAI. Our modeling results indicate that annual averaged LAI and total GPP increase under SSP1–2.6 but decrease under SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5 by 2100. By comparison, annual total ET consistently increases under all SSP scenarios by 2100. Global annual averaged LAI is highly correlated with annual total GPP in all scenarios, while its correlation with annual total ET weakens in SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5. Global annual total vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and precipitation are highly correlated with annual total ET in all scenarios. As emission levels increase, the negative correlation between annual total VPD and GPP strengthens, while the correlation between annual total precipitation and GPP weakens. This research presents an improved model for predicting terrestrial vegetation processes and underscores the importance of low carbon emission scenarios in maintaining carbon-water balances in specific regions.