Annual Damage Research Articles

Drivers of flood risk change in residential areas

Abstract. The observed increase of direct flood damage over the last decades may be caused by changes in the meteorological drivers of floods, or by changing land-use patterns and socio-economic developments. It is still widely unknown to which extent these factors will contribute to future flood risk changes. We survey the change of flood risk in terms of expected annual damage for residential buildings in the lower part of the Mulde River basin (Vereinigte Mulde) between 1990 and 2020 in 10-yr time steps based on measurements and model projections. For this purpose we consider the complete risk chain from climate impact via hydrological and hydraulic modelling to damage and risk estimation. We analyse what drives the changes in flood risk and quantify the contributions of these drivers: flood hazard change due to climate change, land-use change and changes in building values. We estimate flood risk and building losses based on constant values and based on effective (inflation adjusted) values separately. For constant values, estimated building losses for the most extreme inundation scenario amount to more than 360 million € for all time steps. Based on effective values, damage estimates for the same inundation scenario decrease from 478 million € in 1990 to 361 million € in 2000 and 348 million € in 2020 (maximum land-use scenario). Using constant values, flood risk is 111% (effective values: 146%) of the 2000 estimate in 1990 and 121% (effective values: 115%) of the 2000 estimate for the maximum land-use scenario in 2020. The quantification of driver contributions reveals that land-use change in the form of urban sprawl in endangered areas is the main driver of flood risk in the study area. Climate induced flood hazard change is important but not a dominant factor of risk change in the study area. With the historical exception of the economic effects in Eastern Germany following the German reunification, value developments only have minor influence on the development of flood risk.

Analysis of the life-cycle costs and environmental impacts of cooking fuels used in Ghana

This study evaluated the life-cycle costs and environmental impacts of fuels used in Ghanaian households for cooking. The analysis covered all the common cooking energy sources, namely, firewood, charcoal, kerosene, liquefied petroleum gas, electricity and even biogas, whose use is not as widespread as the others. In addition to the usual costing methods, the Environmental Product Strategies approach (EPS) of Steen and co-workers, which is based on the concept of ‘willingness-to-pay’ for the restoration of degraded systems, is used to monetise the emissions from the cookstoves. The results indicate that firewood, one of the popular woodfuels in Ghana and other developing countries, with an annual environmental damage cost of US$36,497 per household, is more than one order of magnitude less desirable than charcoal, the nearest fuel on the same scale, at US$3120. This method of representing the results of environmental analysis is complementary to the usual gravimetric life-cycle assessment (LCA) representation, and brings home clearly to decision-makers, especially non-LCA practitioners, the significance of environmental analysis results in terms that are familiar to all.

Applying stochastic small‐scale damage functions to German winter storms

Analyzing insurance‐loss data we derive stochastic storm‐damage functions for residential buildings. On district level we fit power‐law relations between daily loss and maximum wind speed, typically spanning more than 4 orders of magnitude. The estimated exponents for 439 German districts roughly range from 8 to 12. In addition, we find correlations among the parameters and socio‐demographic data, which we employ in a simplified parametrization of the damage function with just 3 independent parameters for each district. A Monte Carlo method is used to generate loss estimates and confidence bounds of daily and annual storm damages in Germany. Our approach reproduces the annual progression of winter storm losses and enables to estimate daily losses over a wide range of magnitudes.

An economic assessment of tropical cyclone risk on offshore wind farms

Frequent tropical cyclones pose great risks and obstacles to the development of offshore wind farms in the coastal regions of China and other areas in the Pacific, where development of wind energy is gaining momentum. This paper aims to identify and evaluate the economic risks of tropical cyclones on offshore wind farms within the Economic Exclusive Zone (EEZ) of China and help improve decision-making for planners and investors. The risks of tropical cyclone impact in this paper are defined by the statistical extreme wind climate and the annual expected economic losses of offshore wind farms. A probabilistic tropical cyclone event model is applied to evaluate 20-year, 30-year, 50-year and 100-year recurrence of extreme wind speeds by geographical location. Combining a damage model derived from empirical loss data and an investment cost model within a Geographical Information System (GIS), the annual expected economic losses of offshore wind farms from tropical cyclones are evaluated and shown on a spatially continuous risk map. Results are given in terms of annual economic risks and damage losses based on occurrence of an average recurrence interval. Implications on identifying offshore wind potential and cost and setting design parameters for offshore wind turbines are then discussed. The impact of tropical cyclones on offshore wind farms likes a double-edged sword, which might be advantageous for some regions in terms of increasing full-loaded hours of turbines, but also disadvantageous for others due to its destructive effects. However, specific design standards and insurance of turbines would help reduce risks and economic losses of offshore wind farms in tropical cyclone prone areas and expand exploitable locations for future offshore wind farms.

日降水量に基づく日本全体の内水被害リスク推定

The current evaluations of flood risk are generally based on the index of very heavy and rare rainfall, such as the intensity of 100 years probability precipitation. However, this approach may lead to the underestimation of flood risk because the statistical records suggest that the flood damages can be caused by moderate rainfall events as well. Here we introduce a new method for evaluating flood risk which utilizes the distribution of daily rainfall intensity in order to include the flood damage due to the frequent rainfall into the evaluation. The precipitation intensity of each day is converted to the PEP(Precipitation Exceedence Probability) index which represents how rare the precipitation intensity of the day is compared to the probability of exceedence of the annual maximum daily precipitation. The proposed method suggests that the flood risk caused by less than 30 years probability precipitation is estimated up to 78% of the all flood risk. The proposed method seems robust because the evaluated annual flood damage all over Japan agrees to the actual flood damage recorded on the national statistics.

Do Burn Centers Provide Juvenile Firesetter Intervention?

Juvenile firesetting activity accounts for a significant number of annual injuries and property damage, yet there is sparse information on intervention in the burn literature. To quantify juvenile firesetting intervention (JFSI) in burn centers, a 23-question survey was sent to all directors listed in the American Burn Association Burn Care Facilities Directory.Sixty-four out of 112 (57%) surveys were returned. This represents responses from 79% of currently verified burn centers. When queried on interventions provided to a juvenile firesetter admitted to their unit, 38% report having their own JFSI program and 38% refer the child to fire services. Two thirds of units without a JFSI program treat pediatric patients. Units that previously had a JFSI program report lack of staffing and funding as most common reasons for program discontinuation. Almost all (95%) stated that a visual tool demonstrating legal, financial, social, future, and career ramifications associated with juvenile firesetting would be beneficial to their unit. Many burn units that treat pediatric patients do not have JFSI and rely on external programs operated by fire services. Existing JFSI programs vary greatly in structure and method of delivery. Burn centers should be involved in JFSI, and most units would benefit from a new video toolkit to assist in providing appropriate JFSI. Study results highlight a need for burn centers to collaborate on evaluating effectiveness of JFSI programs and providing consistent intervention materials based on outcomes research.

The Political Air: Birmingham and the Struggle for Statewide Air Quality Legislation, 1967-1971

The Political Air:Birmingham and the Struggle for Statewide Air Quality Legislation, 1967-1971 Jonathan Foster (bio) By the late 1960s, Birmingham's historical reputation as an industrial center was perhaps overshadowed only by its more recent and heavily publicized role as a center of protest and violence during the civil rights demonstrations of 1963. Although the "Magic City" had given way to the "Tragic City" in many circles, the public identification of the city as a center of steel and iron production remained strong. Alongside this industrial identity, Birmingham had also built a reputation for poor air quality. A 1968 letter from Oregon teen Don George to city air pollution control engineer Charles B. Robinson is evidence of how this perception extended well beyond the state's borders. Having recently developed an interest in air quality and environmental activism, George revealed his anxiety over local air quality control and felt certain that the city continued to suffer from "a bad air pollution problem."1 While the young environmentalist's assumption was correct, he was likely unaware of his letter's timely arrival. As George put pen to paper, local environmental activists, who included members of the city's public health and medical community, were locked in a heated conflict with industrialists and an industry-friendly state government over the issue of air quality regulation. Embedded within this political battle over clean air and the state's environmental quality of life was the influence of Alabama's historical deep-rooted resistance to federal intervention. [End Page 40] The battle for air quality legislation that young George's letter had become part of was not the first time Birmingham reformers had sought to limit local airborne pollutants. A similar struggle had occurred in the city some fifty-four years earlier. Then, as in 1967, proponents of clean air ran up against backers of the local industrial economy. During this early episode the outcome was never in doubt. In 1913, booming industrial Birmingham briefly emerged as a state leader in air pollution regulation thanks to the efforts of a few progressive-minded local officials. That year city commissioner James Weatherly introduced an ordinance aimed at abating high levels of coal smoke. At that time the city often suffered under a choking blanket of emissions from the centrally located Sloss-Sheffield plant's blast furnaces. While many locals often associated smoke with progress and industrial growth, atmospheric pollution could also be economically damaging. One 1907 estimate listed smoke as being responsible for $3 million in annual damages to local merchants' inventory. With this in mind, during routine deliberations the three-member Birmingham Board of Commissioners adopted Weatherly's ordinance without regard to the reaction of local industry. They soon realized this was a major oversight, as the ordinance inflamed local industrialists. At issue was the ordinance's restriction on the firing of iron and steel furnaces to only three minutes per hour within the city limits. Industrialists also resisted the ordinance's creation of a smoke inspection agency ordained with the power to arrest violators.2 Industrialists' fears proved warranted as the pollution inspectors quickly exercised their authority. Mere days after the ordinance's passage the inspectors arrested the vice-president of Sloss-Sheffield Furnaces after his company blatantly ignored the smoke ordinance. Industrial reaction proved swift and overwhelming. With the support of local newspapers, city industrialists embarked on a press campaign aimed at repealing the law. Birmingham residents found themselves constantly bombarded with a stream of newspaper headlines equating [End Page 41] smoke with progress and payrolls. Articles abounded detailing the plans of local industry to flee the city in light of oppressive air regulation. Newspapers made it evident that when they left the companies would take jobs and the future growth of the city with them. Additional articles quoted various "experts" on the impracticality of outlawing smoke and promoted the idea that local dust, not coal smoke, represented the truly damaging pollutant.3 Faced with this onslaught and public outcry, the commission quickly amended the smoke abatement ordinance. Weatherly conceded that this initial attempt had been too strict and introduced an amendment that increased the hourly time limit on coal burning...

確率台風モデルを用いた近未来台風リスク評価

The projection of typhoon activity is one of the most important issues in risk management under climate change. In this study, we aim to project near-future typhoon activity, and to assess the expected damage cost associated with typhoon in the near-future climate change. Firstly, we have developed a Stochastic Typhoon Model combined with future typhoon characteristics based on General Circulation Model in order to estimate near-future typhoon activity. Further, to evaluate our model's reliability, the outputs of our model have been validated against the observed tracks and central pressure of typhoon in the Western North Pacific. The projected near-future typhoon activity shows the tracks of typhoon shift to the northeast and the typhoon of lower central pressure is increased in the near-future. These changes cause a decrease on annual damage cost in countries around the Asia-Pacific region except for Vietnam. The methodological experience in this study will be helpful to build risk management.

Estimating the benefits of single value and probability forecasting for flood warning

Abstract. Flood risk can be reduced by means of flood forecasting, warning and response systems (FFWRS). These systems include a forecasting sub-system which is imperfect, meaning that inherent uncertainties in hydrological forecasts may result in false alarms and missed events. This forecasting uncertainty decreases the potential reduction of flood risk, but is seldom accounted for in estimates of the benefits of FFWRSs. In the present paper, a method to estimate the benefits of (imperfect) FFWRSs in reducing flood risk is presented. The method is based on a hydro-economic model of expected annual damage (EAD) due to flooding, combined with the concept of Relative Economic Value (REV). The estimated benefits include not only the reduction of flood losses due to a warning response, but also consider the costs of the warning response itself, as well as the costs associated with forecasting uncertainty. The method allows for estimation of the benefits of FFWRSs that use either deterministic or probabilistic forecasts. Through application to a case study, it is shown that FFWRSs using a probabilistic forecast have the potential to realise higher benefits at all lead-times. However, it is also shown that provision of warning at increasing lead-time does not necessarily lead to an increasing reduction of flood risk, but rather that an optimal lead-time at which warnings are provided can be established as a function of forecast uncertainty and the cost-loss ratio of the user receiving and responding to the warning.

Estimating Bird Damage to Rice in Africa: Evidence from the Senegal River Valley

AbstractGranivorous birds, mainly the Red‐billed Quelea, have subsisted on cereal crops in Africa for centuries and have caused substantial damage. There is, however, limited recent evidence on their impact. We propose an indirect method to estimate bird‐inflicted crop losses by fitting a production function with a damage abatement component and pest intensity slope dummies on a panel database of rice farmers in the Senegal River Valley. This allows us to estimate both bird damage and marginal productivity of bird control at different levels of bird pressure. Annual bird damage is found to average around 13.2% of the potential rice production during the wet seasons of 2003–2007, which translates into an average annual economic loss of 4.7 billion FCFA (€7.1 million). Our results are consistent with farmers’ perceived bird‐inflicted crop losses, averaging 15.2%. More alarmingly, we observe declining marginal productivities of bird control under increasing bird pressure. Farmers indicate that at high bird pressure, the efficacy of traditional bird scaring methods is inadequate, which suggests that predictive (monitoring), preventive (population control) and protective (insurance) measures against massive invasions are more urgent than improving the average efficacy of curative measures (pest control). These findings are especially relevant to farmers and policy‐makers who are currently struggling to implement an ambitious food self‐sufficiency programme in Senegal.

Fluvial flood risk in Europe in present and future climates

In this work we evaluate the implications of climate change for future fluvial flood risk in Europe, considering climate developments under the SRES A2 (high emission) and B2 (low emission) scenario. We define flood risk as the product of flood probability (or hazard), exposure of capital and population, and vulnerability to the effect of flooding. From the European flood hazard simulations of Dankers and Feyen (J Geophys Res 114:D16108. doi: 10.1029/2008JD011523 , 2009) discharges with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 250 and 500 years were extracted and converted into flood inundation extents and depths using a planar approximation approach. Flood inundation extents and depths were transformed into direct monetary damage using country specific flood depth-damage functions and land use information. Population exposure was assessed by overlaying the flood inundation information with data on population density. By linearly interpolating damages and population exposed between the different return periods, we constructed damage and population exposure probability functions under present and future climate. From the latter expected annual damages (EAD) and expected annual population exposed (EAP) were calculated. To account for flood protection the damage and population exposure probability functions were truncated at design return periods based on the country GDP/capita. Results indicate that flood damages are projected to rise across much of Western Europe. Decreases in flood damage are consistently projected for north-eastern parts of Europe. For EU27 as a whole, current EAD of approximately €6.4 billion is projected to amount to €14–21.5 billion (in constant prices of 2006) by the end of this century, depending on the scenario. The number of people affected by flooding is projected to rise by approximately 250,000 to 400,000. Notwithstanding these numbers are subject to uncertainty, they provide an indication of potential future developments in flood risk in a changing climate.

Sea-level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an application of DIVA

This paper assesses sea-level rise impacts on Africa at continental and national scales including the benefits of mitigation and of applying adaptation measures, considering four scenarios of global mean sea-level rises from 64 to 126 cm in the period of 1995–2100. We find that in 2100, 16–27 million people are expected to be flooded per year, and annual damage costs range between US$ 5 and US$ 9 billion, if no adaptation takes place. Mitigation reduces impacts by 11–36%. Adaptation in the form of building dikes to protect against coastal flooding and nourishing beaches to protect against coastal erosion reduces the number of people flooded by two orders of magnitude and cuts damage costs in half by 2100. Following such a protection strategy would require substantial investment. First, Africa’s current adaptation deficit with respect to coastal flooding would need to be addressed. DIVA suggests that a capital investment of US$ 300 billion is required to build dikes adapted to the current surge regime and US$ 3 billion per year for maintenance. In addition, between US$ 2 and US$ 6 billion per year needs to be spent on protecting against future sea-level rise and socio-economic development by 2100. This suggests that protection is not effective from a monetary perspective but may still be desirable when also taking into account the avoided social impact. We conclude that this issue requires further investigation including sub-national scale studies that look at impacts and adaptation in conjunction with the development agenda and consider a wider range of adaptation options and strategies.

Climate change effects on mitigation measures: The case of extreme wind events and Philippines’ biofuel plan

Abstract Biofuel production has increased dramatically over the past decade, among other to mitigate climate change. However, climate change vulnerability may currently not be sufficiently accounted for in national biofuel strategies, hence neglecting a possible link between mitigation and adaptation to climate change. To the best of our knowledge this potential link has received very little attention in the literature. One example is the Philippines, which is currently implementing an ambitious program of biofuel production. Its aim is to reduce dependency on imported fuel, increase rural employment and incomes, and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. The Philippines is frequently battered by tropical typhoons and from 1975 to 2002 the annual average damage to agriculture was 3.047 billion pesos. We calculate wind damage on biofuel feedstock production, and assess the effect that a future potential increase in tropical cyclone intensity would have on energy security, rural development and climate change mitigation in the Philippines. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to obtain the future expected development of typhoon impacts. Based on the Philippines legislated target of 10% biodiesel blend in gasoline by 2011, simulation of the affected area for each feedstock, and expected biofuel feedstock damage is computed for the Philippine's 80 provinces in 2050, for two different typhoon climate change scenarios. Additional indirect economic effects are assessed in a tentative way. The results suggest a modest decrease in biofuel feedstock productivity at the national level, but with strong local differences that are shown to affect the Philippine's policy goals. In a broader perspective the paper accentuates a so far little described link between climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation. This link may merit further attention by policy makers and development planners in order to ensure that policies are economically sound not only in the short but also medium term.

Social vulnerability index for coastal communities at risk to hurricane hazard and a changing climate

This paper presents the development of the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) in order to quantify the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone areas under various scenarios of climate change. The 2004–2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons is estimated to have caused $150 billion dollars in damages, and in recent years, the annual hurricane damage in the United States is estimated at around $6 billion. Hurricane intensity or/and frequency may change due to the increase in sea surface temperature as a result of climate change. Climate change is also predicted to cause a rise in sea levels, potentially resulting in higher storm surges. The CCSVI combines the intensity of hurricanes and hurricane-induced surge to create a comprehensive index that considers the effects of a changing climate. The main contributing factors of social vulnerability (such as race, age, gender, and socioeconomic status) in hurricane-prone areas are identified through a principal components analysis. The impact of social characteristics on the potential hurricane damage under various scenarios of climate change are evaluated using Miami-Dade County, Florida, as a case study location. This study finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the CCSVI.

Assessing market and non-market costs of freshwater flooding due to climate change in the community of Fredericton, Eastern Canada

There is a general consensus that climate change will increase the frequency and severity of freshwater flooding in many parts of the world. Communities prone to such flooding have struggled to understand the manner in which this will affect them (in both economic and social terms) and the appropriate way to adapt. In this study, we conduct a case-study investigation into the costs of freshwater flooding due to climate change along the Saint John River in Fredericton, NB, Canada. We develop a four-step framework that combines extreme event analysis, downscaled general circulation models, hydrologic analysis, and the contingent valuation method. Using this framework, together with primary data on a 2005 flooding event, we estimate market and non-market annual average flood damage under a number of climate and population scenarios. We find that non-market costs can represent up to 50% of total household costs of flooding events, and 23–42% of the total costs of flooding due to climate change, depending on the different climate and population scenarios considered. Incorporating such costs into flood adaptation planning may substantially increase support for active adaptation activities, especially in ‘worst case’ climate scenarios.

A probabilistic-based framework for impact and adaptation assessment of climate change on hurricane damage risks and costs

This paper presents a probabilistic-based framework to assess the potential hurricane risks to residential construction under various wind speed change scenarios due to potential climate change. Every year hurricane (cyclone) hazards cause extensive economic losses and social disruption around the world. Annual hurricane damage in the United States (US) is around $6 billion in recent years. Hurricane intensity or/and frequency may change due to the increase in sea surface temperature as a result of climate change. Implications of the changing hazard patterns on hurricane risk assessment warrants an investigation to evaluate the potential impact of climate change. The framework includes probabilistic models of hurricane occurrence and intensity and conditional damage state probabilities (vulnerability model) for typical residential construction in the US, and an assessment of the cost-effectiveness of various climate change adaptation strategies. A case study of Miami-Dade County, Florida is presented to illustrate the framework under various scenarios of change in maximum annual wind speed over 50 years. Demographic information, such as median house value and changes in house numbers, and distribution of houses on different exposure, is used to estimate the time-dependent probable damage with or without possible climate change induced change in wind speed. This study shows that climate change may have a substantial impact on the damage and loss estimation in coastal areas, and that certain adaptation strategies can cost effectively decrease the damage, even if the wind speed does not change.

Assessing the effectiveness of non-structural flood management measures in the Thames Estuary under conditions of socio-economic and environmental change

Risk analysis and appraisal of the benefits of structural flood risk management measures such as embankments is well established. Here, a method to quantify, over extended timescales, the effectiveness of non-structural measures such as land use spatial planning, insurance and flood resilient construction is presented. The integrated approach couples socio-economic and climate change scenarios with long term land use modelling and flood risk analysis to generate maps and time series of expected annual damages. The analysis has been applied on a case study in the Thames Estuary in the UK. Stakeholders helped develop a number of scenarios that might lead to substantial changes in existing planning and insurance policies in the UK. The effectiveness of these changes was analysed and showed the substantial benefits in terms of reduction of future flood risks that are achievable with changes in planning policy, financial incentives and resilient property construction in the floodplain. Moreover, the reward can be increased through earlier action. Subsequently, the benefits of a range of policies are explored under the UK Foresight socio-economic scenarios. Different structural and non structural flood management interventions are tested and the results demonstrate that despite the potential for large increases in flood risk in the Thames Estuary, in all scenarios substantial flood risk reductions are possible. The effectiveness of non-structural measures is however sensitive to socio-economic changes and governance arrangements. The analysis described here will help to identify portfolios of non-structural and structural options that are robust to uncertainties.

A new method to assess the risk of local and widespread flooding on rivers and coasts

AbstractTo date, national‐ and regional‐scale flood risk assessments have provided valuable information about the annual expected consequences of flooding, but not the exposure to widespread concurrent flooding that could have damaging consequences for people and the economy. We present a new method for flood risk assessment that accommodates the risk of widespread flooding. It is based on a statistical conditional exceedance model, which is fitted to gauged data and describes the joint probability of extreme river flows or sea levels at multiple locations. The method can be applied together with data from models for flood defence systems and economic damages to calculate a risk profile describing the probability distribution of economic losses or other consequences aggregated over a region. The method has the potential to augment national or regional risk assessments of expected annual damage with new information about the likelihoods, extent and impacts of events that could contribute to the risk.

Assessing adaptation to extreme weather events in Europe—Editorial

The present Special Issue of the journal Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change reviews impacts, risks, and adaptation to extreme weather events in Europe under global and climate change. Most of the multi-disciplinary material of this Special Issue originates from work carried out by an international group of researchers for the ADAM (Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies) Integrated Project of the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union. The escalating increase in disaster losses from floods, droughts, and other climate-related disasters both in developed and developing countries has become a major concern. On a global scale annual material damage from large weather events has increased 8-fold between 1960s and 1990s, while the insured damage has risen even stronger (17-fold in the same interval), yet loss of life has been brought down considerably (Mills 2005). There are several factors that may explain changes in hydro-meteorological hazards and their impacts. The principal three categories of factors read: changes in socio-economic systems (e.g. land-use change, increasing exposure and damage potential, changing risk perception); Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2010) 15:611–620 DOI 10.1007/s11027-010-9245-y

Baseline RANKL:OPG ratio and markers of bone and cartilage degradation predict annual radiological progression over 11 years in rheumatoid arthritis

ObjectiveTo determine to what extent baseline measurements of the ratio receptor activator of nuclear factor-κB ligand (RANKL):osteoprotegerin (OPG) and C-terminal cross linking of type-I and type-II (CTX-I and CTX-II), in...