Annual Damage Research Articles

Effect of spatial adaptation measures on flood risk: study of coastal floods in Belgium

Flood risk in coastal zones is projected to increase due to climate change and socioeconomic changes. Over the last decades, population growth, increases in wealth, and urban expansion have been found to be the main causes for increasing losses in coastal areas. These changes may, however, be offset by appropriate management measures. The main goal of this study is to assess future changes in flood risk and the effectiveness of flood risk adaptation measures for the coastal zone in Flanders, Belgium. In order to achieve this, we set up a modeling framework to assess the future flood risk of the Belgian coast including climatic and socioeconomic projections, and used this model to assess the effectiveness of two spatial adaptation measures: compartmentalization and land-use zoning. In this modeling framework, a land-use model, an inundation model, and a damage model were combined to calculate expected annual damage. Results show that without adaptation measures, future flood risk would increase substantially. Compartmentalization would result in an average flood risk reduction of approximately 50 % for both the baseline situation and future scenarios. Land-use zoning would result in smaller flood risk reductions, averaging between 6 and 10 %. Except for the most extreme climate change scenario, compartmentalization would successfully offset the combined adverse effects of socioeconomic growth and climate change on flood risk for this case study. For both compartmentalization and zoning, large differences have been found in their effectiveness at the local level, implying that the choice of adaptation measures should be tailored to local characteristics.

Comparisons between blackbird damage to corn and sunflower in North Dakota

For sunflower producers in North Dakota, blackbird (Icterinae) damage is a chronic problem costing millions of dollars annually. Sunflower damage surveys were last completed in the state in 1979–1980. Since the last surveys, corn plantings have increased 6-fold to 1500 × 103 ha, whereas sunflower hectarage has declined by >75% to 310 × 103 ha. Blackbirds forage on both crops, and this rapid change in North Dakota's agricultural landscape was a sound inducement for reassessing crop damage. Field surveys are an important step in damage methods development because they are used for measuring efficacy, as well as assessing historical changes in the quality and quantity of damage. During 2009–2010, we conducted damage surveys on corn and sunflower. We surveyed 120 randomly selected 3.2 × 3.2-km plots in North Dakota's Prairie Pothole Region. This region of numerous wetlands has historically produced the majority of the state's sunflower crop, in addition to harboring a blackbird population of 25 million birds. Over the 2-year study, we measured damage in 68 cornfields and 27 sunflower fields. Annual damage averaged 5.0 × 103 t (12 kg/ha, US $1.3 million) for corn and 7.2 × 103 t (45 kg/ha, US $3.5 million) for sunflower. Percentage damage was significantly greater in sunflower (x¯=2.7%) than corn (x¯=0.2%). The lower per-unit cost of producing corn makes it a potential lure crop for managing blackbird damage to sunflower. However, the two crops should be phenologically synchronized because corn matures earlier than sunflower and becomes less attractive to blackbirds.

Estimating Surge-Based Flood Risk with the Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment Model

Johnson, D.R.; Fischbach, J.R., and Ortiz, D.S., 2013. Estimating surge-based flood risk with the coastal Louisiana risk assessment model.The Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment model (CLARA) was designed to facilitate comparisons of current and future flood risk under a variety of protection system configurations in a wide range of environmental, operational, and economic uncertainties. It builds on previous studies of coastal risk by incorporating system fragility and a larger number of future scenarios than previously analyzed. Flood depths and direct economic damage from a wide range of simulated storm events are aggregated to produce a statistical summary of coastal risk under different assumptions about future conditions. CLARA's estimates of project-level effects on flood risk reduction were used as one of the key decision drivers in selecting the risk reduction projects included in the Master Plan. Depending on the scenario, the final alternative is projected to reduce expected annual damage by approximately 60 to 80% during the next 50 years relative to a future without action and, at the same time, balance other decision criteria.

THU0129 Anemia Adds Information to Predict Radiographic Progression of Erosions on All Levels Levels of Clinically Assessed Disease Activity

BackgroundAnemia in rheumatoid arthritis is often neglected, but a significant relation between this extra-articular manifestation and radiographic progression of erosions was recently shown.ObjectivesTo study the relation between time in anemia...

Risk-based flood zoning employing expected annual damages: the Chenab River case study

Flooding proves to be the most devastating and annihilating natural hazard in Pakistan. Existing flood management strategies are riveted primarily to the structural measures that contribute limited loss reduction capability at the national level. Non-structural measures are not part of regular practices, as the adopted design standards, which are probabilistic in nature, are unable to assess their feasibilities. An improved risk-based assessment using expected annual damages (EAD) is introduced in this article for the evaluation of combined impacts. EAD treat the probabilistic nature of losses and provide an extended visualization of risk distributions in the form of damage curves and expected annual damages distribution maps. The Chenab River floodplain was selected to study the coalesced response of embankments and flood zoning, preliminary in economic terms. In this regard, the impacts of all likely floods are considered instead of the traditional focus on a single design flood. Damage curves and maps are compiled using estimated losses and probabilities of all floods. Flood zoning for agricultural land is performed. The results support choosing a multidirectional conjunctive approach that considers multiple measures to reduce flood losses. These results can be used as a vital input for the decision-making process.

How changing sea level extremes and protection measures alter coastal flood damages

Key Points Effect of sea level rise and flood protection on coastal flood damages Analytic relations for the expected annual damage and its variability Universal applicability due to generality of approach

Economic valuation of landslide damage in hilly regions: A case study from Flanders, Belgium

Several regions around the globe are at risk of incurring damage from landslides, but only few studies have concentrated on a quantitative estimate of the overall damage caused by landslides at a regional scale. This study therefore starts with a quantitative economic assessment of the direct and indirect damage caused by landslides in a 2910km2 study area located west of Brussels, a low-relief region susceptible to landslides. Based on focus interviews as well as on semi-structured interviews with homeowners, civil servants and the owners and providers of lifelines such as electricity and sewage, a quantitative damage assessment is provided. For private properties (houses, forest and pasture land) we estimate the real estate and production value losses for different damage scenarios, while for public infrastructure the costs of measures to repair and prevent landslide induced damage are estimated. In addition, the increase in amenity value of forests and grasslands due to the occurrence of landslides is also calculated. The study illustrates that a minority of land (only 2.3%) within the study area is used for dwellings, roads and railway lines, but that these land use types are responsible for the vast majority of the economic damage due to the occurrence of landslides. The annual cost of direct damage due to landsliding amounts to 688,148€/year out of which 550,740€/year for direct damage to houses, while the annual indirect damage augments to 3,020,049€/year out of which 2,007,375€/year for indirect damage to real estate. Next, the study illustrates that the increase of the amenity value of forests and grasslands outweighs the production value loss. As such the study does not only provide quantitative input data for the estimation of future risks, but also important information for government officials as it clearly informs about the costs associated with certain land use types in landslide areas.

Cold Damage Risk Assessment of Double Cropping Rice in Hunan, China

Combined with remote sensing data and meteorological data, cold damage risk was assessed for planting area of double cropping rice (DCR) in Hunan Province, China. A new methodology of cold damage risk assessment was built that apply to grid and have clear hazard-affected body. Each station cold damage annual frequency and average annual intensity of cold damage was calculated by using 1951–2010 station daily mean temperature and simple cold damage identification index. On this basis, average annual cold damage risk index was obtained by their product. The spatial analysis models of cold damage risk index about double-season early rice (DSER) and double-season later rice (DSLR) were established respectively by the relation of average annual cold damage risk index and its geographic factors. Critical threshold of level of average annual cold damage risk index for DSER and DSLR were respectively divided by the correlative equation of cold damage annual frequency and average annual intensity of cold damage. 2001–2010 planting area of DCR, acquired by time series analysis of MOD09A1 8-d composite land surface reflectance product, was as target of assessment. The results show average annual intensity of cold damage is exponential function of cold damage annual frequency, average annual cold damage risk index is directly proportional to cold damage cumulant and cold damage annual frequency, and is inversely proportional to happen times of cold damage and the square of statistical time sequence length. Cold damage risk of DSER is higher than DSLR in Hunan Province. In the 10-yr stacking map, DCR planting in low risk area accounted for 11.92% of total extraction area, in moderate risk area accounted for 69.62%, in high risk area accounted for 18.46%. According to the cold damage risk assessment result, DCR production can be guided to reduce cold damage losses.

Lateral Static Water Pressure Measurement and Analysis for Temporary Sandbags Barrier Facility

Because of the geographical conditions, Taiwan faces serious threats and unpredictable disasters from the nature, such as earthquake, typhoon and flood disaster throughout the whole year. Up to today, based on statistical data of 60 years, the annual average damages caused by typhoon each year were 3.5 times than those caused by others and those caused by floods were even dozens. Therefore, Taiwan is deeply in need of a complete and fast precaution mechanism with emergency flood disaster. In general, one of the most ways to prevent flood is pilling sandbags as a temporary barrier right at the water inlet way of each house or basement driveway. This study applies the concept of disaster management to adjudge the flooding prevention treatment, also illustrates the lateral static water pressure measurement and analysis of temporary sandbags barrier facility. With the help of analyze and calculation of the actual rainfall, the reality simulation of the damage caused by the disaster can be improved dramatically. This will be the basis for planning the advanced disaster prevention and disaster reduction of each city.

Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan: Overview of a Science-Based and Publicly Informed Decision-Making Process

Peyronnin, N.; Green, M.; Richards, C.P.; Owens, A.; Reed, D.; Chamberlain, J.; Groves, D.G.; Rhinehart, W.K., and Belhadjali, K., 2013. Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan: overview of a science-based and publicly informed decision-making process.Louisiana is in the midst of a land loss crisis that has claimed more than 4800 km2 since the 1930s. Unless aggressive, large-scale action is taken, Louisiana could lose an additional 4500 km2 in the next 50 years, resulting in a projected increase in annual damages from hurricane storm surge flooding of more than $23 billion. Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan is a long-term plan with clear economic, social, and environmental benefits, such as decreasing potential damages from storm surge by $5.3 billion to $18 billion. Implementation of projects in the master plan should result in no net loss of land after 20 years and an annual net gain of land after 30 years. To develop the plan, the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) utilized a state-of-the-art systems approach to coastal planning and a science-based decision-making process that resulted in a funding- and resource-constrained plan that makes the greatest progress toward achieving a sustainable coast. A series of integrated, coastwide predictive models were developed to provide data for a new planning tool used to identify the suite of projects that would make the greatest progress toward meeting the master plan objectives while considering uncertainties in future environmental conditions. Recognizing that the success of the plan hinges on stakeholder support, as well as science, the CPRA also implemented a comprehensive outreach plan to obtain input and feedback from key stakeholders and the public. The resulting plan recommends a specific list of restoration and protection projects and has achieved widespread support.

Optimal Design of Hydrogen Based/Wind/Microhydro Using Genetic Algorithm

The target of stand-alone hybrid power generation system was to supply the load demand with high reliability and economically as possible. To design these criteria the optimal design of the proposed configuration should be done by using intelligent optimization technique. This study utilized Genetic Algorithm method to determine the optimal capacities of hydrogen, wind turbines and micro hydro unit according to the minimum cost objective functions that relate to these two factors. In this study, the cost objective function included the annual capital cost, annual operation maintenance cost, annual replacement cost and annual customer damage cost. The proposed method had been tested in the hybrid power generation system located in Leuwijawa village in Central Java of Indonesia. Simulation results showed that the optimum configuration can be achieved using 19.85 ton of hydrogen tanks, 21 x 100 kW wind turbines and 610 kW of micro hydro unit respectively.

Optimal Design of Fuel-cell, Wind and Micro-hydro Hybrid System using Genetic Algorithm

The target of stand-alone hybrid power generation system was to supply the load demand with high reliability and economically as possible. An intelligent optimization technique using Genetic Algorithm is required to design the system.This study utilized Genetic Algorithm method to determine the optimal capacities of hydrogen, wind turbines and micro-hydro unit according to the minimum cost objective functions.The minimum cost valutes to these two factors. In this study, the cost objective function included the annual capital cost, annual operation maintenance cost, annual replacement cost and annual customer damage cost. The proposed method will be used to optimize the hybrid power generation system located in Leuwijawa village in Central Java of Indonesia. Simulation results showed that the optimum configuration can be achieved using 19.85 ton of hydrogen tanks, 21x100 kW wind turbines and 610 kW of micro-hydro unit respectively

Boulder Damage Symposium annual thin-film laser damage competition

Optical instruments and laser systems are often fluence-limited by multilayer thin films deposited on the optical surfaces. When comparing publications within the laser damage literature, there can be confusing and conflicting laser damage results. This is due to differences in testing protocols between research groups studying very different applications. In this series of competitions, samples from multiple vendors are compared under identical testing parameters and a single testing service. Unlike a typical study where a hypothesis is tested within a well-controlled experiment with isolated variables, this competition isolates the laser damage testing variables so that trends can be observed between different deposition processes, coating materials, cleaning techniques, and multiple coating suppliers. This series of damage competitions has also been designed to observe general trends of damage morphologies and mechanisms over a wide range of coating types (high reflector and antireflector), wavelengths (193 to 1064 nm), and pulse lengths (180 fs to 13 ns). For each of the competitions, a double blind test assured sample and submitter anonymity so only a summary of the deposition process, coating materials, layer count and spectral results are presented. In summary, laser resistance was strongly affected by substrate cleaning, coating deposition method, and coating material selection whereas layer count and spectral properties had minimal impact.

The welfare impacts of an invasive species: Endogenous vs. exogenous price models

The “fixed-prices” models used to measure damages from invasive species typically overestimate financial impacts. These fixed-price assessments do not address key behavioral modifications that lower costs as people adapt by changing their mix of inputs and outputs given new economic circumstances. Using the invasive emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) in Ohio as a motivating example, we develop a computable general equilibrium model that accounts for these behavioral responses. We estimate annual damages from the beetle to be about $70million, an order of magnitude less than the $400–$900million in damages estimated using a fixed-price model. Damages are lower because people adapt through price and income adjustments that occur after ash trees are devastated from the emerald ash borer.

Quantification of wind damage to New Zealand's planted forests

Wind has a significant impact on planted forests in New Zealand, but the extent of loss and its spatial and temporal variability have not been quantified. Therefore, a formal analysis was undertaken using a database containing 78 records of wind damage in planted forests that spanned the period between 1945 and 2010. Approximately 63 000 ha of damage was recorded during this period. The damage that occurred in a single event ranged from 2.8 to 26 000 ha, with a median of 90 ha, and in most cases was confined to a single wood supply region. The relative risk of wind damage for each wood supply region was estimated by calculating the percentage of total net stocked area (NSA) that has been damaged by wind. Across all wood supply regions, an average of 0.21 per cent of NSA per annum has been damaged by wind; however, in the most affected region, the average level of damage was 0.94 per cent of NSA per annum, whereas in the least affected region it was 0.03 per cent. The probability of different levels of annual damage was modelled along with the level of damage associated with different return periods using a generalized Pareto distribution. Using this model, the mean return period for 500 ha of damage was estimated to be 5.0 years with 95% confidence interval (4.5, 6.2) years, whereas for 1000 ha of damage it was estimated to be 6.4 (4.8, 9.9) years.

Special Section Guest Editorial: Laser Damage

Laser damage of optical materials, first reported in 1964, continues to limit the output energy and power of pulsed and continuous-wave laser systems. In spite of some 48 years of research in this area, interest from the international laser community to laser damage issues remains at a very high level and does not show any sign of decreasing. Moreover, it grows with the development of novel laser systems, for example, ultrafast and short-wavelength lasers that involve new damage effects and specific mechanisms not studied before. This interest is evident from the high level of attendance and presentations at the annual SPIE Laser Damage Symposium (aka, Boulder Damage Symposium) that has been held in Boulder, Colorado, since 1969.

Optimal Design of Hydrogen Based Wind-Microhydro Using Genetic Algorithm

The target of stand-alone hybrid power generation system was to supply the load demand with high reliability and economically as possible. To design these criteria the optimal design of the proposed configuration should be done by using intelligent optimization technique. This study utilized Genetic Algorithm method to determine the optimal capacities of hydrogen, wind turbines and micro hydro unit according to the minimum cost objective functions that relate to these two factors. In this study, the cost objective function included the annual capital cost, annual operation maintenance cost, annual replacement cost and annual customer damage cost. The proposed method had been tested in the hybrid power generation system located in Leuwijawa village in Central Java of Indonesia. Simulation results showed that the optimum configuration can be achieved using 19.85 ton of hydrogen tanks, 21 x 100 kW wind turbines and 610 kW of micro hydro unit respectively. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/telkomnika.v10i6.1326 Full Text: PDF

Health impact and damage cost assessment of pesticides in Europe

Health impacts from pesticide use are of continuous concern in the European population, requiring a constant evaluation of European pesticide policy. However, health impacts have never been quantified accounting for specific crops contributing differently to overall human exposure as well as accounting for individual substances showing distinct environmental behavior and toxicity. We quantify health impacts and related damage costs from exposure to 133 pesticides applied in 24 European countries in 2003 adding up to almost 50% of the total pesticide mass applied in that year. Only 13 substances applied to 3 crop classes (grapes/vines, fruit trees, vegetables) contribute to 90% of the overall health impacts of about 2000 disability-adjusted life years in Europe per year corresponding to annual damage costs of 78millionEuro. Considering uncertainties along the full impact pathway mainly attributable to non-cancer dose–response relationships and residues in treated crops, we obtain an average burden of lifetime lost per person of 2.6hours (95% confidence interval between 22seconds and 45.3days) or costs per person over lifetime of 12Euro (95% confidence interval between 0.03Euro and 5142Euro), respectively. 33 of the 133 assessed substances accounting for 20% of health impacts in 2003 are now banned from the European market according to current legislation. The main limitation in assessing human health impacts from pesticides is related to the lack of systematic application data for all used substances. Since health impacts can be substantially influenced by the choice of pesticides, the need for more information about substance application becomes evident.

Estimating the economic damage caused by jellyfish to fisheries in Korea

Jellyfish cause a range of problems: they sting beach vacationers in the summer, block nuclear power plant intakes (thus disrupting the supply of electricity), decrease fishery catches, cause fishing activities to be delayed, decrease product value, and damage fishing gear. This study gauged the types and amount of damage directly caused by jellyfish. Using jellyfish monitoring data, the decreases in catch and product value for each fishery type as well as the estimated damage to each fishery type caused by jellyfish were evaluated. The results showed that the decrease in catch ranged between 6.5 and 33.7 %, and the decrease in product value ranged between 6.8 and 25.3 %, depending on fishery type. The annual direct damage caused by jellyfish was estimated to be between US$ 68.2 million and US$ 204.6 million. This corresponds to a minimum of 2.1 % and a maximum of 25 % of the annual production value, demonstrating that jellyfish cause considerable damage to the fishing industry.

효율적인 절토사면 관리를 위한 위험도 점수 활용에 관한 연구

Many cut slopes are located near national highways, resulting in large annual damage to infrastructure from the collapse of cut slopes. Therefore, to effectively maintain cut slopes, high-risk slopes should be identified and monitored. In this paper, we evaluate the effectiveness of the management of cut slopes using the risk score calculated from cut-slope inventory data. The inventory survey, as a simple assessment of the characteristics of various slopes, was performed to collect basic data that could be obtained visually in the field for the management of cut slopes. This method is not a precise survey, and it was composed of the general status and characteristics of cut slopes, the inspector`s assessment, and inventory data in order to estimate a risk score for each slope. In this paper, we calculated the risk score by investigating the present status of cut slopes adjacent to 10,461 national roads. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of using risk score data, we compared the score for stable slopes with those of failed cut slopes. Failed cut slopes occurred in sections with the highest risk score. The results show that risk score derived from the inventory survey of cut slopes are useful in the management of cut slopes with risk of failure and in monitoring large numbers of cut slopes.