Average Annual Reduction Research Articles

Developing traps for the overwintering tree-of-heaven weevils Eucryptorrhynchus scrobiculatus and E. brandti (Coleoptera: Curculionidae).

The tree-of-heaven root and trunk weevils, Eucryptorrhynchus scrobiculatus (TRW) and E. brandti (TTW) are important boring pests of Ailanthus altissima in China. Overwintering TRW and TTW adults can continue to damage A. altissima trees and reproduce after they emerge from the soil each year. There is a lack of studies regarding the development of control measures during the overwintering period. A polyethylene terephthalate bottle trap (PETBT) and corrugated paper box trap (CPBT) were evaluated for their ability to trap TRW and TTW adults descending from trees to overwinter in the soil in Wutongshu and Shabatou locations in Ningxia, China. Significantly more overwintering TRW adults were caught by the PETBT than the CPBT. There were no significant differences in the TTW captures in PETBT when compared to the CPBT. Both PETBT and CPBT have little effect on trapping overwintering TTW adults. Further trapping studies showed that PETBT treatments significantly reduced overwintering TRW numbers caught in population monitoring trap nets placed on the A. altissima tree trunks (an average annual reduction of 42% than the untreated trees). These results demonstrate that PETBT is effective for trapping overwintering TRW adults. PETBT could be recommended as an alternative for managing TRW in the framework of integrated pest management. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

Photovoltaic penetration in isolated thermoelectric power plants in Brazil: Power regulation and specific consumption aspects

Isolated large communities in the Amazon region of Brazil are power by Islanded grids powered by diesel generator systems. The costs of these systems are high due to the complex and unreliable fuel supply chain. Including large-scale photovoltaic installations in these isolated grids have the potential to increase the reliability and reduce the cost of electricity. This paper investigates the impact of PV generation insertion on the specific consumption of isolated thermoelectric power plants. A diesel thermoelectric power plant (DTPP) of 4 MW, supplying electric energy to an isolated grid, was used as a case study. Five Photovoltaic penetration levels are evaluated, considering the operational regulatory constraints, three diesel generators (A, B and C), two daily solar irradiance profiles and annual solar irradiance profiles, and two dispatch strategies. The power plant loading range is bounded by the Brazilian regulatory framework to comply with fuel consumption efficiency measures and to guarantee the reliable operation. In the evaluated scenarios, PV penetration was not subject to power curtailment measures controlled by the DTPP. However, the power plant loading range considers both variation of photovoltaic generation and load. The results presented in this paper indicate that maintaining a higher number of machines in operation can make the DTPP more reliable to absorb the PV generation variations, enabling the growth of the PV penetration on the electric system, reducing the DTPP's fuel consumption and return on investment (payback) of the PV system without change significantly the DTPP's specific consumption. The results also show that the quality of the diesel generator is more important to keep specific fuel consumption low than the dispatch strategy used for a given PV penetration. The replacement of Generator A (less efficient) for B (more efficient) together the PV penetration of 50%, for example, can achieve a yearly fuel consumption reduction superior to 1 million liters. For the same PV penetration, an average annual reduction of 0.78 million liters in DTPP’s fuel consumption can be reached, with PayBacks that could come close to 1.4 years.

Change in newly diagnosed Graves\u2019 disease phenotype between the twentieth and the twenty-first centuries: meta-analysis and meta-regression

PurposeAccording to a few recent studies, the clinical phenotype of Graves’ disease (GD) at onset is becoming milder in recent years, in terms of prevalence and severity of hyperthyroidism, goiter and overt eye disease. The aim of this study was to assess the change in GD phenotype across the late twentieth and the early twenty-first centuries.Materials and methodsWe carried out a systematic search of studies published between 1/1/1980 and 12/31/2017 describing naïve GD patients at diagnosis. We collected epidemiological, clinical, biochemical and serological data reported in the selected studies, and (1) conducted a single-arm meta-analysis to compare clinical and biochemical characteristics of naïve GD patients before and after year 2000 and (2) performed a meta-regression to identify the trend of the observed clinical presentations.ResultsEighty selected articles were related to the period before the year 2000, 30 to the years 2000–2017. According to demographics, the two defined populations were homogeneous at meta-analysis: overall estimated female prevalence was 81% [95% CI 79–82], mean estimated age of the entire population was 39.8 years [95% CI 38.4–41.1], with no significant differences between pre- and post-2000 groups (p > 0.05). The overall estimated prevalence of smokers was 40% [95% CI 33–46], with no significant difference between the two groups (p > 0.05). Mean estimated free thyroxine (FT4) and free triiodothyronine (FT3) levels at diagnosis were higher in the pre-2000 group: 4.7 ng/dl [95% CI 4.5–4.9] for FT4 and 14.2 pg/ml [95% CI 13.3–15.1] for FT3, as compared to the post-2000 group: 3.9 ng/dl [95% CI 3.6–4.2] for FT4 and 12.1 pg/ml [95% CI 11.0–13.3] for FT3 (all p < 0.01). Goiter estimated prevalence was higher in the pre-2000 group, 87% [95% CI 84–90], than in the post-2000 group, 56% [95% CI 45–67]. Estimated prevalence for Graves’ Orbitopathy (GO) was 34% [95% CI 27–41] in the pre-2000 group and 25% [95% CI 19–30] in the post-2000 group (p = 0.03). Accordingly, meta-regression adjusted for covariates showed an average annual reduction of FT4 (− 0.040 ± 0.008 ng/dl, p < 0.0001), FT3 (− 0.316 ± 0.019 pg/ml, p < 0.0001), goiter prevalence (− 0.023 ± 0.008%, p = 0.006), and goiter size (− 0.560 ± 0.031 ml, p < 0.0001).ConclusionsOur meta-analysis and meta-regression confirmed that GD phenotype at diagnosis is nowadays milder than in the past; we hypothesize that conceivable factors involved in this change are iodoprophylaxis, worldwide decrease in smoking habits, larger use of contraceptive pill and micronutrient supplementation, as well as earlier diagnosis and management.

Social determinants and the Sustainable Development Goals' tuberculosis target in the AmericasDeterminantes sociais e a meta para a tuberculose dos Objetivos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável nas Américas

RESUMENObjetivo.Determinar el comportamiento de los indicadores de incidencia de tuberculosis (TB) y número de muertes por TB en el marco de la meta 3.3 de los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible (ODS) y su correlación con los determinantes sociales.Métodos.Se utilizó una metodología de estudio ecológico, en el cual la unidad de análisis es la población. Para el análisis de los determinantes sociales, se hizo uso del modelo de regresión binomial negativo y la fuerza de asociación.Resultados.En las Américas se ha presentado una disminución promedio anual en la tasa de incidencia de TB de 0,3% entre 2009 y 2018; sin embargo, de 2015 a 2018 ha habido un aumento, pasando de 27,6 a 28,8 por 100 000 habitantes. Con respecto a los determinantes sociales, los grupos de países con índice de desarrollo humano (IDH) y producto interno bruto (PIB) más bajos tienen una incidencia de TB más alta. El riesgo de TB en el país con IDH más bajo es seis veces mayor que en el país con IDH más alto.Conclusiones.Al ritmo de la disminución actual de la tasa de incidencia y del número de muertes por TB, la Región de las Américas no alcanzará las metas propuestas en los ODS y en la Estrategia Fin de la TB. Se requiere una implementación y expansión rápidas de las intervenciones en prevención y control de TB para lograrlo. Esto implica, entre otras acciones, reducir las barreras de acceso al diagnóstico y tratamiento y fortalecer las iniciativas para abordar los determinantes sociales.

PCN340 Direct and Indirect Costs Associated with Unresectable Advanced or Metastatic (ADV/MET) Gastric Cancer (GC), Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer (GEJC) and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma (EAC) for Patients and Their Caregivers

Living with cancer creates financial burden on patients and their caregivers. Our study explored direct and indirect costs for patients with ADV/MET GC, GEJC and EAC and their caregivers. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in France, Germany, the UK, the US, Japan and China (Apr–Oct 2019) in patients with ADV/MET GC/GEJC/EAC , their caregivers and their physicians. Costs were converted into GBP (£) for analysis. 995 patients and 536 non-professional caregivers (NPCs) were included. Median patient/NPC age was 66/60 years. At initial diagnosis, 30% and 41% of patients/NPCs were working full- or part-time. Following diagnosis, at data capture, 8% and 37% of patients/NPCs were working full- or part-time. Data was available for 73% (n=215) of patients working at initial diagnosis, who reported an annual income reduction of £34,792 (SD: £13,740). Of patients with data, still working at data capture (n=63), 41% suffered an income reduction. A mean reduction of 85% in monthly working hours was experienced by the 43 patients who reported working hours at initial diagnosis/data capture. Patients paid a mean total of £346.20 out of pocket costs/month; the highest cost items were prescription/non-prescription cancer medications (£156.70), housekeeper/cleaner (£32.90) and tests such as blood tests and scans (£29.90). Costs varied by country. Of NPCs working at the patient’s initial diagnosis, with data (n=220), 9% experienced an average annual income reduction of £20,269 (SD: £19,107). 21% of 177 NPCs working at data capture experienced an income reduction since patient diagnosis. 34% of 525 NPCs provided financial support to patients (mean £358/month). Financial support was most commonly provided for transportation/travel (78%) and medication (59%). 97% of 532 NPCs were not reimbursed for their caregiver role. Whilst patients experienced the greatest direct and indirect financial impact, caregivers also suffered from financial burden due to ADV/MET GC/GEJC/EAC.

Wasted Children and Wasted Time: A Challenge to Meeting the Nutrition Sustainable Development Goals with a High Economic Impact to Ethiopia.

Despite some progress in the reduction of the prevalence of child wasting in Ethiopia, the pace of progress has been slow. Despite millions of dollars being spent on the treatment of wasting every year, the increased frequency and magnitude of environmental and anthropogenic shocks has halted progress. This study aimed to present the trends of child wasting in Ethiopia and estimate the economic losses related to the slow progress towards meeting the sustainable development goal (SDG) targets. Weather shocks and civil unrest between 2015 and 2018 have halted progress. We used a “consequence model” to apply the coefficient risk–deficit on economic losses established in the global scientific literature to the Ethiopian health, demographic, and economic data to estimate economic losses related to child wasting. The impact of wasting on the national economy of Ethiopia is estimated to be 157.8–230.2 million United States dollars (USD), annually. The greatest contributor to the economic burden (43.5–63.5% of the burden depending on the discount rate) is the cost of supplies and human resources to treat wasting. To reach the 2030 SDGs, Ethiopia should increase its annual average reduction rate (AARR) in the numbers of child (<59 months) wasting from 0.1% to 5.4%. This will avert the wasting in 7.9 million cases and prevent additional economic costs of up to 803.7 million USD over the next decade. Increasing the reach of therapeutic interventions, but also identifying and implementing wasting prevention interventions, will be critical if the SDG targets are to be met and the opportunity of the children to thrive is not to be wasted.

A Lifestyle Medicine Model for Family Medical Practices based on 9-Years of Clinical Data Including Food, Weight, Glucose, Carbs/Sugar, and Walking Using Linear Elastic Glucose Theory along with GH-Method: Math-Physical Medicine, Part 14 (No. 367)

This article is aimed at assisting family medical practices for obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D) control using the lifestyle medicine model, which is Part 14 of his recently developed linear elastic glucose theory (LEGT). More than 33 million Americans, about 1 in 10, have diabetes, and approximately 90% to 95% of them have T2D, where 86% also have problems with being overweight or obese. In other words, 7.7% to 8.2 % of the US population or 25 to 27 million Americans have issues with weight, T2D conditions, and multiple complications. The author is a patient who suffered with being overweight/obese and T2D for over 25 years. He faced many complications from 2002 to 2010. Over the past 11 years, he dedicated himself to research diabetes and its complications. In this study, he describes the simple and straightforward yet highly precise method to control his chronic disease conditions, including weight and glucose. The results of his research provide proof through a big data analytics of his collected input data through the continuous research and implementation efforts over the past 9 years. His findings have finally achieved satisfactory health results with high mathematical precision on his various biomarker predictions. He named this the “lifestyle medicine” approach. The purpose of writing this article is to offer a simple but practical approach to patients with chronic diseases like himself. In summary, the author describes his straightforward implementation model in the following four steps: 1. By reducing his weight from 189 lb. to 170 lb. (-19 lb. or -10% in total weight), cutting off about 50% of his original over-eating food portion size (from 130% in 2012 down to 66% in 2020, which is -7% of his annual food portion reduction from original amount, or -6% average annual reduction continuously). This food portion reduction will automatically reduce the intake amount of fat and carbohydrates along with strictly controlling his sugar and sodium amounts, while maintaining a sufficient intake amount of high-quality protein. 2. 2. When his weight dropped from 189 lbs. to 170 lbs. (-10% or -1.1% per year), his FPG then decreased from 140 mg/dL to 102 mg/dL (-38 mg/dL or -27%, or -3% per year) accordingly. Weight and FPG are highly correlated (93%). 3. When his FPG decreased, his PPG also reduced from 128 mg/dL to 108 mg/dL (-20 mg/dL or -16%, or -1.7% per year), providing he limits his carb/sugar intake amount below 15 grams per meal along with walking at least 30 minutes after each meal. He also increased his post-meal walking from 500 steps to 4,400 steps (+433 post-meal steps per year or +87% per year in comparison with his walking steps in 2012). 4. He wants to re-emphasize the importance of diet and exercise. Normally, reduction on food and meal portion will automatically assist in limiting the carbs/sugar intake amount. However, patients should always watch for the overall nutritional balance. For the author, his carbs/sugar intake amount has been cut down from 20 grams to 12.5 grams per meal (-7.5 grams or -38%, or -4% per year) because of his food portion reduction from 130% to 66% (-64% of food portion or -7% per year). This article merely provides a clinical proof using a quantitative and precision approach. These mathematical and biomedical accomplishments are based on careful physical phenomena observations, related biomedical interpretation, and proof process. This particular research project of food nutrition and biomedicine has utilized his developed GH-Method: math-physical medicine in which 366 medical papers have been published. The above four statements are simple to understand. Therefore, there is no need to learn fancy theories, complex formulas or equations. No need to take special seminars or attend college courses, take high dosages of medications or supplements, or go through any unnecessary surgeries. There are straight-line relationships existing among food, exercise, weight, and glucose that follow a simple and straight-line route of from food portion control to weight reduction and arrive at glucose stability for both FPG and PPG.

Riparian buffer effectiveness as a function of buffer design and input loads.

Although many agricultural watersheds rely heavily on riparian buffer adoption to meet water quality goals, design and management constraints in current policies create adoption barriers. Based on focus group feedback, we developed a flexible buffer design paradigm that varies buffer width, vegetation, and harvesting. Sixteen years of daily-scale nutrient and sediment loads simulated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were coupled to the three-zone Riparian Ecosystem Management Model (REMM) to compare the effectiveness of traditional, policy-based buffer designs with designs that are more flexible and integrate features important to local farmers. Buffer designs included (i) 10m grass, (ii) 15m grass, (iii) 15m deciduous trees, (iv) 30m grass and trees, (v) 30m grass and trees with trees harvested every 3 yr, and (vi) 30m grass and trees with grass harvested every year. Allowing harvesting in one zone of the buffer vegetation (either trees or grasses) minimally affected water quality, with annual average percent reductions differing by<5% (p>.05; 76-78% for total nitrogen [TN], 51-55% for total phosphorus [TP], and 68% for sediment). Under the highest input loading conditions, buffers with lower removal efficiencies removed more total mass than did buffers with high removal efficiencies. Thus, by focusing on mass reduction in addition to percent reduction, watershed-wide buffer implementation may be better targeted to TN, TP, and sediment reduced. These findings have important implications for informing flexible buffer design policies and enhanced placement of buffers in watersheds impaired by nutrient and sediment.

Multi-criteria decision making monarch butterfly optimization for optimal distributed energy resources mix in distribution networks

The optimal integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) is a multiobjective and complex combinatorial optimization problem that conventional optimization methods cannot solve efficiently. This paper reviews the existing DER integration models, optimization and multi-criteria decision-making approaches. Further to that, a recently developed monarch butterfly optimization method is introduced to solve the problem of DER mix in distribution systems. A new multiobjective DER integration problem is formulated to find the optimal sites, sizes and mix (dispatchable and non-dispatchable) for DERs considering multiple key performance objectives. Besides, a hybrid method that combines the monarch butterfly optimization and the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) is proposed to solve the formulated large-scale multi-criteria decision-making problem. Whilst the meta-heuristic optimization method generates non-dominated solutions (creating Pareto-front), the TOPSIS approach selects that with the most promising outcome from a large number of alternatives. The effectiveness of this approach is verified by solving single and multiobjective dispatchable DER integration problems over the benchmark 33-bus distribution system and the performance is compared with the existing optimization methods. The proposed model of DER mix and the optimization technique significantly improve the system performance in terms of average annual energy loss reduction by 78.36%, mean node voltage deviation improvement by 9.59% and average branches loadability limits enhancement by 50%, and minimized the power fluctuation induced by 48.39% renewable penetration. The proposed optimization techniques outperform the existing methods with promising exploration and exploitation abilities to solve engineering optimization problems.

Water quality trends under rapid agricultural expansion and enhanced in-stream interception in a hilly watershed of Eastern China

Conflicts between agricultural intensification and the increasing demand for clean water resources are growing worldwide. This study sought to understand how the negative consequences of agricultural expansion in fragile hilly watersheds can be mitigated by ecologically based engineering practices. We analyzed long-term and seasonal water quality trends in two sub-watersheds of the Tianmu Lake watershed in Eastern China. The Zhongtian and nearby Zhucao sub-watersheds are very similar in terms of climate, topography and other features that can influence water quality. Both are experiencing rapid expansion of tea plantations, but the Zhongtian River contains an engineered system of overflow dams and cascade wetlands that is absent from the Zhucao River. The multi-year averaged reduction (2009–2018) of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) from upstream to downstream reaches was 10%–15% greater in the engineered Zhongtian River compared to the non-engineered and free flowing Zhucao River, which has no interventions to reduce nutrient concentrations. Average annual reductions in TN, TP, and total suspended solids (SS) downstream of the engineered system reached 0.5%–4.0% of their multi-year averaged concentrations over this time interval. These reductions occurred despite a 2.3-fold expansion of tea plantation area in the engineered watershed, which contrasts with deteriorating water quality in the non-engineered watershed that had a 0.4-fold expansion of tea plantation area. Our results underscore the value of such engineered systems to improve water quality and help reconcile competing advantages of agricultural development and environmental protection in hilly watersheds, where there is limited in-stream processing of nutrients and the effects of human activities are substantial.

Trends and seasonality in cause-specific mortality among children under 15\u2009years in Guangzhou, China, 2008\u20132018

BackgroundThis study analyzed the trends and seasonality in mortality among children aged 0–14 years in Guangzhou, China during 2008–2018. Understanding the epidemiology of this public health problem can guide policy development for children mortality prevention.MethodsA population-based epidemiological retrospective study was conducted. Seven thousand two hundred sixty-five individual data of children mortality were obtained from the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The Poisson regression was used to quantify the annual average reduction rate and the difference in mortality rate between sex and age groups. Incidence ratio with 95% confidence interval (CI) was estimated to determine the temperaol variations in mortality by month, season, school term, day of the week and between holidays and other days.ResultsBetween 2008 and 2018, the children mortality rate in Guangzhou decreased from 54.0 to 34.3 per 100,000 children, with an annual reduction rate of 4.6% (95% CI: 1.1%–8.1%), especially the under-5 mortality rate decreased by 8.3% (95% CI: 4.8%–11.6%) per year. Decline trends varied by causes of death, even with an upward trend for the mortality of asphyxia and neurological diseases. The risk of death among males children was 1.33 times (95% CI: 1.20–1.47) of that of females. The distribution of causes of death differed by age group. Maternal and perinatal, congenital and pneumonia were the top three causes of death in infants and cancer accounted for 17% of deaths in children aged 1–14 years. Moreover, the injury-related mortality showed significant temporal variations with higher risk during the weekend. And there was a summer peak for drowning and a winter peak for asphyxia.ConclusionsGuangzhou has made considerable progress in reducing mortality over the last decade. The findings of characteristics of children mortality would provide important information for the development and implementation of integrated interventions targeted specific age groups and causes of death.

Energy, carbon and cost analysis for an innovative zero energy community design

A substantial percentage of the energy consumption worldwide is consumed by buildings. Initiatives have been taken by investors, governments and policy-makers towards sustainability in different cities. The aim of this paper is to propose an innovative sustainable Zero Energy Community (ZEC) with 8 different building designs and 52 buildings to simulate a real community. The simulation is conducted using DesignBuilder and EnergyPlus software. The chosen building designs were based on the Egyptian community. Results show that the ZEC concept is achieved and the energy of the community relied only on renewable energy sources. For validation, the ZEC is compared to a conventional community in terms of energy, carbon footprint and economic analysis. Results show that the ZEC achieved an average annual percentage energy consumption reduction by 57.6% and in carbon dioxide emissions by 390 tons of CO2 compared to the conventional community. Buildings have payback periods that range from 1 to 10 years. Applying ZEC concepts proved to be feasible under hot climates such as Egypt. The proposed procedure can be followed by researchers in different climatic regions to achieve ZECs based on the chosen location’s community designs and weather conditions. Practitioners can build-upon this work by implementing real ZECs by adopting integrated design concept that includes all stakeholders and by simulating every aspect and testing its feasibility before going into the practical implementations. Moreover, this study would help policy-makers and governments in achieving their strategic and broad perspective of achieving sustainable and zero energy cities and communities.

1167-P: CSII and Insulin: Does Extending the Wear Duration of Infusion Sets Save Expensive Insulin?

Objective: Patients using continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) as a means of insulin delivery are advised to replace their infusion set every 2-3 days, as the probability of adverse events related to insertion increases after 72 hours, according to labeling and manufacturer’s instructions. When the infusion set is changed the remaining unused insulin in the reservoir and infusion set tubing are usually thrown away. The potential savings associated with extending the duration of infusion set wear from 2-3 days to 7 days was determined from the perspective of insulin pump users. Method: The discarded insulin volume in the reservoir and infusion set under a current-wear scenario of 2-3 days versus 7 days was modeled. A mix of best-case (use for a 3-day set/reservoir with the shortest length of tubing) and worst-case (normal use for a 3-day set/reservoir with longest tubing) scenarios was used. Insulin cost savings were computed for the 3-day scenario assuming a complete infusion set and reservoir change every 3 days. Under the 7-day scenario, a complete infusion set change occurred every 7 days, while the reservoir was changed midway between complete changes. Under the best-case scenario, reservoirs were discarded by the end of 7 days. Results: For the insulin pump users, the average annual reduction in discarded insulin volume was calculated to save about 5-10 vials of insulin per year per pump user. The corresponding cost reduction per user due to insulin savings was ∼$1,500 to $3,000 per year per pump user (based on ∼ $300/insulin vial; IBM Micromedex Red Book). Conclusion: Using infusion sets that last for 7 days can yield substantial savings to patients, private health plans, and other payers (e.g., Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services). Work is in progress to assess environmental impact cost savings due to reduction in material waste when extending the duration of infusion set wear from 2-3 days to 7 days. Disclosure S. Chattaraj: Employee; Self; Medtronic. M. Fienup: Employee; Self; Medtronic. G. Zhang: None. M. Tieck: None.

Yearly analysis of peak temperature, thermal amplitude, time lag and decrement factor of a building envelope in tropical climate

Two similar building structures, one is with macrocapsules of PCM called the experimental building structure (EBS), while the other is without macrocapsules of PCM called the reference building structure (RBS) were developed using conventional construction materials. Both the structures were then monitored for one year in the outdoor tropical type of environmental conditions to evaluate the indoor thermal behavior based on indoor peak temperature, indoor thermal amplitude, time lag, and decrement factor. Additionally, the annual average peak heat flux and corresponding cost-savings in peak cooling load were also analyzed. The results depict that EBS shows a reduction in the indoor peak temperature round the year, ranging from 0.2 °C to 4.3 °C and a percentage reduction in indoor thermal amplitude ranging from -2.43% to 51.3%. The annual average time delay of 97.5 min and the annual average percentage reduction of 24.69% in the decrement factor was obtained by the EBS. The annual average peak heat flux reduction of 17.37% and corresponding yearly average cost-saving in peak cooling load of 1.47 rupees/kWh/m2/day was obtained in the EBS.

Satellite verification of ultra-low emission reduction effect of coal-fired power plants

In this paper, satellite data from five isolated power plants were used to explore the change local emissions levels belonged to the vicinity of the power plant before and after ultra-low emissions (ULE) retrofitted. Sulphur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) observations from Ozone monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite data were used to evaluate the emission changes of the power plants retrofitted by ULE technology. Meanwhile, the actual emission reduction effect of isolated power plants was evaluated by the OMI data. It was observed that the isolated power plants have shown obvious point source characteristics. The average annual SO2 emission reduction ratio of SZ, ZD, JJ, ND and BD power plants after ultra-low transformation is 43.7%, 56.9%, 29.0%, 34.6% and 26.8%, respectively, compared with that before the transformation, while the corresponding PBL-SO2 column concentration reduction ratio is 27.0%, 14.3%, 15.6%, 26.6% and 4.2%, respectively. The average annual NOx emission reduction ratio of the power plants after ultra-low transformation is 44.7%,79.3%,29.0%,73.2% and 29.8%, respectively, compared with that before the transformation, while the corresponding NO2 column concentration reduction ratio is 7.0%,27.2%,25.7%,8.9% and 5.6%, respectively. The trend of emission reduction before and after the ULE retrofitted of SO2 and NO2 column concentration by satellite observation is consistent with the calculated trend of emission reduction. Satellite observations have confirmed the emission reduction effect of ULE technology.

Air quality and health impacts from using ethanol blended gasoline fuels in China

Abstract China's government has announced the mandatory, nationwide use of ethanol blended gasoline fuels (E10, namely, 10% ethanol blend) by 2020. It is necessary to assess the air quality and health impacts of E10 gasoline in China. This study compares two E10 gasoline fuels, ELA (lower content of aromatics) and ELO (lower content of olefins), assuming 100% utilization in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) and Yangtze-River Delta (YRD) regions in 2030. We found that reduced emissions of primary fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and increased emissions of NOX could be achieved by using both E10 fuels. For nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), on-road emissions would be increased by 8% under Scenario ELA and reduced by 3% under Scenario ELO because of the different impacts of the two E10 fuels on evaporation. By using an atmospheric chemical transport model, the annual average reduction in PM2.5 concentrations is estimated to reach nearly 0.2 μg m−3 in the urban areas under Scenario ELO, while the benefit of the decline of the ambient PM2.5 concentrations is smaller under Scenario ELA (

Analysis of the functional orientation of agricultural systems from the perspective of resource circulation

Accurately identifying the functional orientation of the different components of a circular agricultural (CA) system is crucial for improving the ecological efficiency of the system. However, the functional orientation still needs more in-depth quantitative analysis. This study serves as a feasible way of solving this problem. An energy flow model has been developed based on the Odum Energy System Language, which is a method based on mathematics, energy flows, cybernetics and hierarchical relationship and can effectively modelling the agriculture resources recycling and environmental impact. The case study of the CA system of Fuqing Xingyuan Company has been conducted, quantitatively analyzing the functional orientation differences between different components in the CA system. The results showed that: (1) The dragon fruit planting system benefited from recyclable resources, but did not contribute recyclable resources, and was positioned as a “beneficiary system”. If the planting amount of the dragon fruit increasing by 10% (Scenario 1), the resources allocation would be unbalanced, and the total economic output of the CA system would reduce by 0.17% annually; otherwise, it would increase by 0.29% (Scenario 2); (2) The pig breeding system drove the overall operation of the system and provided recyclable resources for other components, and was position as “drive system”. If the breeding amount increases by 10% (Scenario 3), the pig breeding system would increase the recyclable resource input of the CA system, and the total economic output of the CA system would rise and fluctuate, increasing by 0.20% annually. Otherwise, the average annual reduction would be 0.59% (Scenario 4). The changing trend of the economic output under different scenarios supported the results of functional orientation analysis. It provides an effective way to identify the functional orientation of different components in a CA system based on the Energy System Language.

Assessing the incremental costs and savings of introducing electronic immunization registries and stock management systems: evidence from the better immunization data initiative in Tanzania and Zambia.

IntroductionPoor data quality and use have been identified as key challenges that negatively impact immunization programs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In addition, many LMICs have a shortage of health personnel, and staff available have demanding workloads across several health programs. In order to address these challenges, the Better Immunization Data (BID) Initiative introduced a comprehensive suite of interventions, including an electronic immunization registry aimed at improving the quality, reliability, and use of immunization data in Arusha Region, Tanzania, and Southern Province of Zambia. The objective of this study was to assess the incremental costs of implementing the BID interventions in immunization programs in these two countries.MethodsWe conducted a micro-costing study to estimate the economic costs of service delivery and logistics for the immunization programs with and without the BID interventions in a sample of health facilities and district program offices in each country. Structured questionnaires were used to interview immunization program staff at baseline and post-intervention to assess annual resource utilization and costs. Cost outcomes were reported as annual cost per facility, cost per district and changes in resource costs due to the BID interventions (i.e., costs associated with health worker time, start-up costs, etc.). Sub-group analyses were conducted by health facility to assess variation in costs by volume served and location (rural versus urban). One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to identify influential parameters. Costs were reported in 2017 US dollars.ResultsIn Tanzania, the average annual reduction in resource costs was estimated at US$10,236 (95% confidence interval: $7,606-$14,123) per health facility, while the average annual reduction in resource costs per district was estimated at $6,542. In Zambia, reductions in resource costs were modest at an estimated annual average of $628 (95% confidence interval: $209-$1,467) per health facility and $236 per district. Resource cost reductions were mainly attributable to reductions in time required for immunization service delivery and reporting. One-way sensitivity analyses identified key cost drivers, all related to reductions in health worker time.ConclusionThe introduction of electronic immunization registries and stock management systems through the BID Initiative was estimated to result in potential time savings in both countries. Health worker time was the area most impacted by the interventions, suggesting that time savings gained could be utilized for patient care. Information generated through this work provides evidence to inform stakeholder decision-making for scale-up of the BID interventions in Tanzania and Zambia and to inform other Low-to-Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) interested in similar interventions.

Early transformation of the Chinese power sector to avoid additional coal lock-in

Emission reduction from the coal-dominated power sector is vital for achieving China’s carbon mitigation targets. Although the coal expansion has been slowed down due to the cancellation of and delay in new construction, coal-based power was responsible for over one third of China’s energy-related CO2 emissions by 2018. Moreover, with a technical lifetime of over 30 years, current investment in coal-based power could hinder CO2 mitigation until 2050. Therefore, it is important to examine whether the current coal-based power planning aligns with the long-term climate targets. This paper introduces China’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) goals and an ambitious carbon budget along with global pathways well-below 2 degrees that are divided into five integrated assessment models, which are two national and three global models. We compare the models’ results with bottom-up data on current capacity additions and expansion plans to examine if the NDC targets are in line with 2-degree pathways. The key findings are: 1. NDC goals alone are unlikely to lead to significant reductions in coal-based power generation. On the contrary, more plants may be built before 2030; 2. this would require an average of 187–261 TWh of annual coal-based power capacity reduction between 2030 and 2050 to achieve a 2 °C compatible trajectory, which would lead to the stranding of large-scale coal-based power plants; 3. if the reduction in coal power can be brought forward to 2020, the average annual coal-based power reduction required would be 104–155 TWh from 2020 to 2050 and the emissions could peak earlier; 4. early regulations in coal-based power would require accelerated promotion of alternatives between 2020 and 2030, with nuclear, wind and solar power expected to be the most promising alternatives. By presenting the stranding risk and viability of alternatives, we suggest that both the government and enterprises should remain cautious about making new investment in coal-based power sector.

New problems of food security in Northwest China: A sustainability perspective

AbstractChina's food security has met standards set by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. However, this development is based on excessive resource input and sacrificing the environment. There are few studies on how to evaluate food production systems with a sustainability framework. In order to guarantee the food security in Northwest China, and realize the sustainable development of agricultural production, this study was carried out. On the basis of comprehensive analysis of new problems faced, including water resources, cultivated land resources and ecological security, several indicators such as water resources development and utilization rate, cultivated land pressure index, cultivated land quality index, N and P emissions and emission intensity are proposed to comprehensively evaluate the sustainability of grain production in Northwest China and put forward countermeasures to realize regional sustainable development. The results show that the water resources are already at a high‐stress level as the development and utilization rate of water resources is 42.7% in 2015. Industrial and domestic water continues to squeeze agricultural water use (annual average reduction of 0.1%). The amount of per capita cultivated land in 2015 has decreased by 9.7% compared to 2000. The quality index of cultivated land is as low as 0.22. A series of ecological problems caused by agricultural production have intensified the ecological crisis in the Northwest, which in turn will further affect food security. Suggestions to address these issues include improving agricultural water use efficiency, strengthening the measures of arable land conservation, improving fertilizer utilization efficiency and reducing plastic‐film mulch residues.