Average Annual Air Temperature Research Articles

Autochthonous grape varieties in the Lower Don Region

This article describes modifi cation changes in the phenotypic traits of grape varieties, including the number of normally developed shoots and infl orescences, the average bunch weight, and grape yield under the infl uence of unstable weather conditions. The research was carried out in the moderate continental climate of the Lower Don region in the period from 2013 to 2022. The average annual air temperature ranged from +10.2 to +11.6 °C, with the climatic norm being +10.4 °C. In the period of active vegetation (May–September), the temperature ranged from +21.2 to +22.7 °C, with the norm being 18.1 °C. The maximum temperature ranged from +37.2 to +40.0 °C, with the norm being +40.0 °C. In winter, during the plant dormancy period (December–February), the average air temperature varied from 0.6 to minus 2.6 °С, with the norm being about minus 2.4 °С. The annual precipitation varied from 292 to 693 mm, with the norm being 548 mm. During the vegetation period of grapes, atmospheric precipitation by the years of observation varied from 99 to 359 mm, with the norm being 177 mm. The aim was to establish the limits of modifi cation variability of phenotypic traits under the infl uence of the unstable moderate continental climate of the Lower Don Region. The research objects were autochthonous grape varieties, including ‘Varyushkin’, ‘Krasnostop’ ‘Zolotovsky’, ‘Kumshatsky Belyi’, ‘Plechistik’, ‘Sibirkovy’, and ‘Tsimlyansky Chernyi’. The reaction norm and modifi cation changes of the phenotypic traits of grape plants under the infl uence of natural conditions in their habitats were studied. The autochthonous grape varieties in contrasting weather conditions exhibited individual and varietal specifi city in terms of reaction norm and adaptability. According to the variability of phenotypic traits and adaptive potential, the varieties were ranked in the following descending order: ‘Plechistik’, ‘Krasnostop Zolotovsky’, ‘Varyushkin’, ‘Kumshatsky Belyi’, ‘Sibirkovy’, and ‘Tsimlyansky Chernyi’. The genotypes ‘Plechistik’, ‘Krasnostop Zolotovsky’, ‘Varyushkin’, and ‘Kumshatsky Belyi’ with their high adaptive potential for formation of stable vine plantations are recommended for developing stable grape plantations in the conditions of the Lower Don region.

A century-long tendency of change in surface air temperature on the territory of Ukraine

A century-long tendency of change in surface air temperature on the territory of Ukraine

The Effect of the Temperature Increase on Heat Demand Calculation for Building in the Polish Climatology

Heat demand calculation procedures for buildings are currently being conducted based on the Polish Standard grounded on the European Standard for heat losses methodology. Poland was divided into several climatic zones with given calculations and annual average external air temperature values. In each zone, the technical committee gives the temperature that must be considered. The data included in the Polish Standard preparation concern several years backwards. However, throughout the previous years, we have observed the tendency of the temperature to increase throughout the year, not only in Poland. The phenomenon provides scientists with the conclusion that the temperatures will continue to increase yearly. The low temperatures in the winter season will no longer occur. Therefore, it is necessary to analyse the possibility of lowering the heat demand calculation, including the actual prevailing temperature values. The study was conducted regarding possible economic benefits for the building users due to the lower temperature difference between the internal and external temperatures. Three types of heating systems were analysed. The calculations were conducted for air to water heat pump, pellet boiler and gas condensing boiler, proving that regarding the actual meteorological data, the average annual cost reduction will be in the range of 858 PLN to 1,035 PLN.

ГОДОВОЙ СТОК РЕК БАССЕЙНА ОБЫ И СЕВЕРНОГО СКЛОНА ХРЕБТА КАЛБА В УСЛОВИЯХ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИХ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ

The patterns of formation of the average annual runoff in the basin of the Oba River and the rivers of the Kalbinsky Range were studied, meteorological characteristics were analyzed - average annual air temperatures and annual precipitation according to weather stations in Eastern Kazakhstan. Trends in changes in hydrometeorological indicators, and primarily the norms of these characteristics in conditions of climate warming, have been identified. The average annual water consumption of various water supplies in the modern period has been calculated. The analysis showed that over the long-term period since 1980, the annual flow of the rivers in question has decreased in the river basin. Both are 10.6% and 2.7% of the left bank tributaries of the Ertis. It should be noted that the emerging trend of increasing annual precipitation and average annual water flows of the rivers on the left bank of the Ertis since the beginning of 2010 may subsequently become stable, and in the future should lead to an increase in precipitation in the territory and the flow of the right-bank tributaries of the Ertis.

Greenness, air pollution, and temperature exposure effects in predicting premature mortality and morbidity: A small-area study using spatial random forest model

BackgroundAlthough studies have provided negative impacts of air pollution, heat or cold exposure on mortality and morbidity, and positive effects of increased greenness on reducing them, a few studies have focused on exploring combined and synergetic effects of these exposures in predicting these health outcomes, and most had ignored the spatial autocorrelation in analyzing their health effects. This study aims to investigate the health effects of air pollution, greenness, and temperature exposure on premature mortality and morbidity within a spatial machine-learning modeling framework. MethodsYears of potential life lost reflecting premature mortality and comparative illness and disability ratio reflecting chronic morbidity from 1673 small areas covering Greater Manchester for the year 2008–2013 obtained. Average annual levels of NO2 concentration, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) representing greenness, and annual average air temperature were utilized to assess exposure in each area. These exposures were linked to health outcomes using non-spatial and spatial random forest (RF) models while accounting for spatial autocorrelation. ResultsSpatial-RF models provided the best predictive accuracy when accounted for spatial autocorrelation. Among the exposures considered, air pollution emerged as the most influential in predicting mortality and morbidity, followed by NDVI and temperature exposure. Nonlinear exposure-response relations were observed, and interactions between exposures illustrated specific ranges or sweet and sour spots of exposure thresholds where combined effects either exacerbate or moderate health conditions. ConclusionAir pollution exposure had a greater negative impact on health compared to greenness and temperature exposure. Combined exposure effects may indicate the highest influence of premature mortality and morbidity burden.

Long-term changes in qualitative composition of the Buzuluk Pine Forest avifauna (Orenburg Province area) based on retrospective and present-time observations

We conducted a comparative analysis of qualitative composition of the Buzuluk Pine Forest avifauna, mainly based on data collected by ornithologist E.P. Knorre for the period 1928–1941, and modern observations done between 2000 and the present. Retrospective data were obtained from the now-defunct Buzuluk Bor Reserve with an area of 10 503 hectares (now Borovoye-Opytnoe Forestry in the Orenburg Province). Present-time personal avifaunistic observations (using standard methods with referring to literature sources) were carried out on an area of 49 000 hectares, both in Borovoye-Opytnoe and in several adjacent forestries that were part of the Buzuluk Bor National Park within the Orenburg Province. Comparing the historical and current bird lists, we used a relative assessment of changes in the composition of various bird groups based on the observed and expected frequencies according to the χ2 test. Long-term data on average annual temperatures and precipitation from a nearby state weather station were also used. As a result, it is shown that by now the list of birds of E.P. Knorre decreased from 153 to 109 species (28.8%). When comparing by orders, the water birds were found to be the most affected group. The number of species in orders Podicipediformes, Ciconiiformes, Gruiformes decreased by 80–100%, and it dropped by more than 50% in orders Anseriformes and Charadriiformes. There was also a slightly smaller decrease in the number of species in orders Falconiformes and Strigiformes – by about 40%. An assessment of the relative changes in various bird groups from Knorre’s list based on expected and observed frequencies showed significant differences in the portion of avifauna associated with water. It decreased between 23.5% and 9% in the group ‘Limnophiles’ (χ2 = 11.7, df = 1, p = 0.0006) and between 24.8% and 9% in the group of orders represented by waterfowl and waterbird species (χ2 = 13.4, df = 1, p = 0.0002). The change in the portion of birds of prey was statistically non-significant. The same portion assessment method did not statistically confirm the decrease in the rest ecological and order groups. Comparison of groups by occurrence status found no significant changes in the portions of all groups of birds in the past and present, but the largest reduction was recorded in the group of migrating species. The portion of migrants decreased from 8.7% to 3.0% (χ2 = 3.2, df = 1, p = 0.07, Yates corrected χ2 = 2.2, p = 0.1). A dramatic decline in group of bird species associated with wetlands was suggested to be due, among other factors, to the progressive desiccation of the Buzuluk Pine Forest, as E. Knorre himself wrote in his report. The ongoing aridization of the climate, as shown by the graph of average annual air temperatures, has been taking place since at least the 20s of the twentieth century and led to the drying-up of wetlands, and also to migration of groundwater to deeper horizons. The emerging trend towards a reduction in the portion of migrants could be explained by the fact that a number of migratory bird species, mainly ducks and waders, disappeared in the study area, and several other migrants began breeding species. In addition, large-scale fires and logging led to formation of burned wasteland areas inside the forest at the beginning of the twentieth century and also probably contributed to fragmentation and desiccation of this biome.

Investigation of Temperature, Precipitation, Evapotranspiration, and New Thornthwaite Climate Classification in Thailand

This study aims (1) to study the trend and characteristics of average annual air temperature (Tann), annual precipitation (Prann), and annual evapotranspiration (PETann) in Thailand over the present period (1987–2021) and (2) to extract the climate pattern in form of a map using the New Thornthwaite Climate Classification method in Thailand considering the present period. The data were prepared by the Thai Meteorological Department. Data variability, the mean of the data calculation in time series, the homogeneity test of data, and abrupt changes were examined. The trends of each variable were calculated using the Mann–Kendal and Sen’s slope test. The results indicated that the high Tann found in Bangkok gradually decreased in the next area. Tann data were heterogeneous with the abrupt change period, and increasing trends were found. Prann values were high in the west side of the southern area and the bottom area of the eastern area; in addition, low rainfall was found in the inner area of the land. Prann data were homogenous with no abrupt change period and slight changes in trends. PETann and %CV spatial distribution were determined for the same pattern of Tann. PETann data were heterogeneous with abrupt change periods and rising trends. The torrid thermal index determined based on the New Thornthwaite Climate Classification results indicated an overall torrid-type climate. A semi-arid climate pattern was found in the small area of the middle of Thailand, and then it shifted toward a moist-type pattern in the next area with an in precipitation. The most climate variability was found to be extreme with the power of temperature changes.

Determining the breaking points of the trend in long-term changes of air temperature in Barentsburg (Svalbard)

Changes in the average annual surface air temperature (SAT) in Barentsburg (Svalbard) for the period 1899-2022 are considered. The SAT increases at an average rate of 0.34°C/10 years. The warming process is not continuous and consists of two periods of cooling and two periods of warming. Statistical methods have been used to establish the most probable position of the breaking points of the SAT trend: 1917, 1938, and 1968. The recent (“modern”) warming in the region began in the late 1960s, but since 1988, its intensity has doubled.

Impact of Climate Change on the Performance of Household-Scale Photovoltaic Systems

The objective of this article was to investigate the impacts of climate change on photovoltaic systems among renewable energies by the end of the 21st century. One hypothesis posited that due to decreased cloud cover as a result of changing climate, the geographical region under examination would receive more solar irradiation—usable by photovoltaic panels—which would in turn increase the annual electrical energy production of these systems. Another hypothesis suggested that the average temperature increase, associated with changing climate conditions, would detrimentally affect the efficiency of electricity production in photovoltaic systems. The study was based on the simulation of a household-scale photovoltaic model. This simulation calculated the system's performance on an hourly basis depending on inputs and summed these to produce an annual value. Input values were derived from climate scenario databases. These variables included global horizontal irradiance, direct horizontal irradiance, temperature, and wind speed. The output was the aforementioned quantity of annual electrical energy production. An analysis occurred between the annual average global horizontal irradiance and the annual average air temperature in relation to the quantities of annual electrical energy production. Pearson and partial correlation examinations among the variables demonstrated that unfavorable scenarios resulted in reduced efficiency of photovoltaic electrical energy production, primarily due to rising temperatures. Among other contributions, this article can support research into the active cooling of photovoltaic systems and the examination of their viability to mitigate efficiency losses caused by current and future temperature increases. Doi: 10.28991/HIJ-2024-05-01-01 Full Text: PDF

Last Glacial Maximum climate and atmospheric circulation over the Australian region from climate models

Abstract. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ∼21 kyr ago) was the most recent time that the Earth experienced global maximum ice volume and minimum eustatic sea level. The climate changes over the Australian region at the LGM remain uncertain, including the extent of cooling in the arid interior, changes in the regional atmospheric circulations such as the tropical monsoon and mid-latitude westerlies, and changes in the balance between precipitation and evaporation. In this study, 13 climate model simulations that were included in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) Phases 3 and 4 are used to investigate regional climate (temperature, precipitation, and wind) over Australia at the LGM. The model simulations are compared with existing proxy records and other modelling studies. All models simulate consistent annual and seasonal cooling over the Australian region (defined as 0–45° S, 110–160° E) at the LGM compared to pre-industrial, with a multi-model mean 2.9 °C decrease in annual average surface air temperature over land at the LGM compared to pre-industrial. Models simulate a range of LGM precipitation anomalies over the region. Simulated precipitation changes over tropical Australasia appear to be driven by changes in circulation and moisture transport, which vary greatly between models. Surface moisture balance calculated from precipitation minus evaporation shows little change over much of the Australian land area at the LGM. Changes in the strength and position of the mid-latitude westerlies are uncertain, with wide model disagreement. These results indicate that climate model simulations do not show a robust response in either tropical or mid-latitude circulation to LGM boundary conditions, suggesting that caution is required when interpreting model output in this region. Further analysis based on model evaluation and quantitative model–proxy comparison is required to better understand the drivers of LGM climate and atmospheric circulation changes in this region.

Reserves of soil productive humidity are the key to high yield of sunflower

The Earth upward trend in average annual air temperatures has led to increased physical evaporation of water from soil and plant transpiration. This phenomenon raises questions about the adequacy of soil moisture reserves to support optimal plant growth under changing environmental conditions. In addition to precipitation, factors such as constanty updated sunflower varieties (hybrids), mineral nutrition, and irrigation techniques significantly impact sunflower yields. This study aims to assess the correlation between key climatic parameters in the Republic of Moldova and sunflower yield. Analyzing data on average annual air temperatures and spring moisture reserves from 2006 to 2020, it was found out that, on average, climatic conditions in this region ensure a sunflower yield of up to 20 quintals per hectare over a 15-year period. Knowing the spring reserves of productive moisture in the soil and precipitation levels from April to July allows for predictive modeling of sunflower yield.

Climatic changes in the forest and steppe zones of the Volga region and the Urals

The article analyses the dynamics of changes in the main components of the climate. The variability and cyclicity of the climate and the weather conditions forming it by year, autumn-winter period and vegetation period of grain crops on arable lands in the forest and steppe zones of the Volga region and the Urals for the entire period of meteorological observations is studied. Differences in the rates of climate change over time and by seasons have been revealed. Annual precipitation, on average in 1887-2020, per 100 years, increased by 55 mm, mainly due to precipitation in winter. The average annual air temperature increased by 1.8 °C, the average air temperature in winter by 2.3 °C and the average air temperature in summer by 1 °C. The air temperature in the steppe zone increases 20% faster compared to the forest zone.

Анализ климатических норм в Забайкальском крае

Using observational data from 27 meteorological stations of the Roshydromet network, on average for the territory of the Trans-Baikal Territory and its geoadministrative regions, the values of climatic norms for four operational periods recommended by the WMO (1961–1990, 1971–2000, 1981–2010, 1991–2020) were calculated and analyzed. , and general (1961–2020) for surface air temperature and precipitation. Updated data on climate norms and their dynamics over different time intervals are of particular importance for ensuring the economic sustainability and environmental security of the Russian Federation in the context of current climate trends. The purpose of this study was to assess the regional features of changes in climatic norms of air temperature and precipitation in the territory of the Trans-Baikal Territory. The results of the study showed that the warming observed in the Trans-Baikal Territory led to an increase in the norms, the average annual values of which with each subsequent period are 0.3–0.4 °C higher than in the previous one. On average, over the region, the largest contribution to the increase in climatic norms of average annual air temperatures for the cold season was observed in 1971–2000, for the warm season in 1981–2010. An analysis of air temperature anomalies calculated as deviations from the average value for the base period 1991–2020 shows that positive anomalies on average over the territory of the region began to be recorded only since 1990. Then the mode of precipitation here is characterized by cyclicity. An analysis of precipitation anomalies shows that, in general, their negative values correspond to the dry phases of the cycle, while positive values correspond to wet ones, although wet years are noted in arid years, and dry years in humid ones. The average difference between the sum of atmospheric precipitation of different phases is about 50 mm. The values of climatic norms correspond to their average number for the general period. Precipitation norms do not reflect the climatic situation, and in order to solve applied problems in climate-dependent industries and adopt management strategies, it is more expedient to take into account the cycle phase of the territory's humidification regime.

CLIMATIC FACTORS CHARACTERIZING THE MOISTURE SUPPLY OF THE TERRITORY AND THEIR EFFECT ON THE QUALITY INDICATORS OF GRAPES

The study of scientific problem, to which this research is devoted, is due to planetary climate change, manifested in an increase in the average annual air temperature, rapid changes in winter and summer temperatures, and a lack of precipitation.
 For today, there is a serious problem of adapting plants to climate change due to an increase in water deficiency in many regions of the world. Climate change creates significant uncertainty in the potential adaptability of grape plants, as well as in the prospects for viticulture development in general.
 The study and generalization of territorial distribution of climatic factors that characterize a particular region, as well as their effect on the quality characteristics of raw materials and finished products, are attractive from the point of better understanding and forecasting the potential impact on agricultural systems. The obtained data consumption will allow improving the forecast of climate change consequences in the medium term, and in relation to particular terroirs.
 The goal is to study the effect of climatic factors that characterize the moisture supply of the territory on the quality indicators of grapes.
 Materials and methods. The objects of the study were grapes of white and red cultivars, different in agroecological aspect, and growing in micro regions of Crimea. To identify the effect of factors characterizing the moisture supply of the territory on the quality indicators of raw materials for winemaking products, the amount of precipitation from the beginning of growing season to the harvesting, the amount of precipitation for the last month before harvest, and hydrothermal coefficient of Selyaninov were selected. The assessment of grapes was carried out according to the indicators of carbohydrate-acid complex (mass concentration of sugars, titratable acids, pH value, profile of organic acids), as well as the glucoacidimetric indicator revealing the degree of grape ripeness.
 Results and conclusion. Climatic factors characterizing the moisture supply of viticultural and winemaking regions of Crimea were assessed. The studies carried out made it possible to reveal variations in the concentration of carbohydrate-acid complex components depending on the changing ability of environmental factors. A significant precipitation deficiency was observed on the Peninsula. According to the value of hydrothermal coefficient of Selyaninov (did not exceed 1), most of the territory was classified as an arid or very arid zone. A correlation between the hydrothermal coefficient and mass concentration of grape sugars (r=-0.63) was established for red grapevine cultivars. The data obtained indicate that an increase in the amount of precipitation during growing season contributes to a moderation of sugar accumulation in grapes. Similar pattern was not established for white grapevine cultivars. There was a direct correlation of the mass concentration of malic acid on the amount of precipitation in the last month before harvest (r=0.78).

Water Balance, Climate Classification and Empirical Distribution of the Probability of Rain for the Region of Tangará da Serra – MT

Objective: The present work aimed to describe the Climatological Water Balance (BHC), carry out the Climate Classification (CC) and evaluate the Empirical Probability (EP) of rainfall occurrence for the region of Tangará da Serra – MT. Theoretical Frame: This study used the following main citations as a theoretical basis: National Water Agency (ANA) and National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), source of climate data; Thornthwaite & Mather (1955) for the climatological water balance methodology; Thornthwaite (1948) and Koppen (1900) for climate classification; and Thom (1966) for the methodology of probability of occurrence and return period of rain. Method: To carry out the study, a series of 31 years of climate data was used, covering the period from 1989 to 2019, obtained from the National Water Agency (ANA) and the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). Filling gaps in the data was carried out using the Regional Weighting method, according to the methodology of Mello et al. (2017). The climatological water balance was estimated according to Thornthwaite & Mather (1955). The climate classification was obtained using the methodologies of Thornthwaite (1948) and Koppen (1900). The probability of occurrence and the period of return of rain were achieved using the methods of Thom (1966). Results and Conclusions: Through studies carried out, it was found that the average annual precipitation in Tangará is 1603 mm and the average annual air temperature is 24.5 °C. The months of May, June, July, August and September present a water deficit, while in the months of December, January, February, March and April there is a water surplus. According to Thornthwaite's methodology, the region has a humid climate, with moderate water deficiency in winter, megathermal and with potential evapotranspiration in the summer less than 48% of the annual potential evapotranspiration, whereas according to Koppen's methodology, the location was classified as megathermal or tropical with drought in the winter. The probability of rainfall less than the maximum average of 47.7 mm is 93.3% and its return time is approximately 15 years. Implications of the research: This research is classified as of great importance for the purposes of the Department of Agricultural Engineering of the State University of Mato Grosso, Campus of Nova Mutum and Tangará da Serra - MT, as well as for the entire academic and scientific community and interested rural producers. in climatic data, water balance and climate of the studied region. Originality and value: This study aimed to show the academic and scientific community and rural producers the behavior of climatic variables throughout the year in the municipality of Tangará da Serra – MT, where this information can be used for agricultural planning in the region and also serve as a basis for future studies.

Adaptive restructuring of grape metabolism in winter period

In the unstable conditions of the Anapo-Taman zone of the Krasnodar Krai, the urgency of the problem of winter hardiness of grapes increases due to an increase in the average annual air temperature against the background of an increase in the frequency of low critical air temperatures in the winter. The adaptive rearrangements of grape metabolism associated with resistance to winter stresses have been studied. Objects of research: grape varieties of different ecological and geographical origin: Crystal, Dostoyny, Krasnostop AZOS, Vostorg, Aligote, Zarif. The electrophoretic separation of peroxidases in polyacrylamide gel in the studied grape varieties revealed that the quantitative and qualitative composition of isoforms changed during the winter period and depended on the variety and the influence of the stress factor. During the autumn-winter period, the varieties Crystal, Krasnostop AZOS, Vostorg revealed an increased total content of anthocyanins in (13.2-14.4 conventional units), ascorbic acid in shoots (13.7-18.4 µg/g of raw weight) in contrast to the varieties Aligote, Zarif. According to the research, it was found that the Crystal grape variety has increased frost resistance, followed in descending order by Krasnostop AZOS, Vostorg, Dostoyny. These varieties have great adaptive capabilities in unstable conditions of a changing climate and are recommended for cultivation in the Anapo-Taman zone, as well as for use in breeding as sources of frost resistance. Varieties Aligote, Zarif are singled out as less frost-resistant.

Air temperature change manifestation at the Zhytomyr territory

The territory of cities with a changing environment, a significant density of population, industrial and transport facilities, daily activities that ensure its vital activity and cause significant greenhouse gas emissions, causes a significant contribution to climate change, which is one of the most acute environmental problems of our time. Purpose. To assess the manifestations of air temperature changes in the city of Zhytomyr for the period 2000-2022. Methods. Statistical, the coefficient of deviation essentiality of air temperature from the average long-term values was calculated in accordance with the methodology of Pede D.A. . Results. The information base of the research was the data on average annual and average monthly air temperatures in Zhytomyr of the Zhytomyr Regional Centre for Hydrometeorology. It was determined that in the period 2000–2022, the air temperature in the city increased by 1.9 °C compared to the climatic norm. 2015, 2019, and 2020 were the warmest during the period of our observations. Based on the calculation of the coefficients of of deviation essentiality of air temperature deviations from long-term average values, it was determined that for individual months of the year for the period 2000–2022, 2.9% of recorded conditions were close to extreme, and 31.9% – recorded conditions that differ significantly from the perennial average, the remaining 65.2% have conditions close to normal. According to the years of observation, temperature conditions that are significantly different from the long-term average occurred in 2002, 2007, 2008, 2015-2020, close to normal - during the rest of the years. Conclusion. The obtained results are important for understanding the problem of increasing air temperature in Zhytomyr and developing measures to adapt to climate change at the local level.

Wavelets in the analysis of local time series of the Earth's surface air

The practical application of local smoothing and wavelet analysis methods for studying the spectral composition and coherent relationships of local average annual surface air temperatures with solar activity and the displacement of the Earth's North Pole is presented. A preliminary analysis of local time series of surface temperatures revealed the presence of emissions and their localization. It is shown that to eliminate the influence of outliers (short-term events) on the reliability of identifying a long-term nonlinear trend, the wavelet decomposition method, which filters high frequencies, is most suitable. Functional approximation models are constructed and compared at different levels of wavelet decomposition of the data. Time or scale smoothing is used to improve the reliability of the wavelet spectrum. Based on data on average annual surface air temperatures in Yalta (44.48⁰, 34.17⁰, = 72.0 m) for the time interval from 1869 to 2022, functional models of long-term trends were built and used to obtain short-term forecasts. Information about the linear relationship of events in the compared time series is obtained and discussed in the analysis of wavelet cross-correlation, wavelet coherence and phase coherence. Local similarities were discovered between data on surface air temperature and solar activity data (Wolf numbers) for a period of ∼(30–70) years, as well as oscillations with period of 11 years, manifested in the constancy of the phase difference and an increase in the modulus of wavelet coherence power over time. Localized similarities were also found in data on surface air temperature in Yalta and in data on displacements of the Earth's mean pole relative to the conventional beginning of EOP (IERS) CO1 in the interval of periods ∼ (30–70) years.

Winter and spring long-term dynamic of air temperature in Central Ukraine

This study aimed to analyze data from meteorological stations in central Ukraine that have the longest observation period and to search for patterns in the dynamics of temperature indicators over the past 140-200 years. Data and methods. To characterize the climate of central Ukraine, we analyzed the average monthly and average annual temperatures of Uman, Kropyvnytskyi, and Poltava, which have the longest continuous or almost continuous periods of observation. Based on these data, we have constructed graphs of changes in the average annual and average monthly temperatures for the winter and spring seasons. To analyze the dynamics of temperature indicators, we built linear and 11-year moving averages. The results. The analysis of meteorological data from weather stations in central Ukraine over the entire period of observation showed the following: average annual temperatures increased from 1.4 degrees in Kropyvnytskyi, 1.6 degrees in Uman to 2.5 degrees (since 1886 - 2.2 degrees) in Poltava. The highest average annual air temperatures at all weather stations were recorded in 2020 and 2021. The largest temperature increase occurred in the winter months. Over the entire observation period, the average monthly temperature in December increased by 2.0 degrees in Kropyvnytskyi, 2.3 degrees in Uman, and 3.6 degrees in Poltava (3.3 degrees since 1886). The average monthly temperature in January increased from 2.4 degrees in Uman and Kropyvnytskyi to 4.9 degrees (3.5 degrees since 1886) in Poltava. The average monthly temperature in February increased from 2.2 degrees in Kropyvnytskyi, 3.4 degrees in Uman to 4.1 degrees (since 1886 - 2.9 degrees) in Poltava. All three weather stations have common periods of rising and falling temperatures, with an increase in the average monthly temperature in the winter months from 1987-1989 to 2022. The air temperature in the spring months also increased significantly. Over the entire observation period, the average monthly temperature in March increased from 2.3 degrees in Kropyvnytskyi, 3.0 degrees in Uman to 3.6 degrees (since 1886 - 3.5 degrees) in Poltava. The average monthly temperature in April increased from 2.1 degrees in Kropyvnytskyi, 2.4 degrees in Uman to 4.2 degrees (since 1886 - 3.4 degrees) in Poltava. The average monthly temperature in May increased from 0.5 degrees in Uman and Kropyvnytskyi to 2.9 degrees (since 1886 - 1.3 degrees) in Poltava. All three weather stations have common periods of rising and falling temperatures, with a slight increase in average monthly spring temperatures from 1988-1990 to 2022. Analyzing the graphs of 11-year moving averages, one can notice the presence of periods of increase and decrease in average monthly temperatures lasting about 33 years or doubled periods lasting about 66 years. Scientific novelty. For the first time, the data of weather stations in central Ukraine for the entire period of observation (138 years – Uman, 148 years – Kropyvnytskyi, 198 years – Poltava) were analyzed and regularities in the dynamic of temperature indicators were determined. The practical significance lies in the possibility of using the researchers results to predict future climate change.

AGROCLIMATIC ZONING OF ARABICA COFFEE CROPS IN THE REGION OF LAVRAS, MINAS GERAIS, BRAZIL

Coffee growing is the most relevant agricultural activity in the state of Minas Gerais. Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica L.) is the most widely cultivated in the state and is more sensitive to the climate, requiring milder temperatures for commercial production. Water deficit and airtemperature are the main factors used in the agroclimatic zoning of coffee, requiring annual water deficits below 150 mm and an average annual air temperature between 19°C and 21°C for suitability for cultivation. The Lavras region has municipalities with contrasting areas planted with Arabica coffee, being located in a transition zone of the growing crop. Therefore, the objective was to use interpolated climatic surfaces of mean monthly temperature and monthly precipitation, with high spatial resolution (30 seconds) of the WorldClim2 project, in order to perform the agroclimatic zoning for Arabica coffee in 11 municipalities around Lavras, Minas Gerais, Brazil. The water balance was calculated by the Thornthwaite method and the contour of existing plantations was obtained from a survey conducted by EPAMIG for the year 2018. The annual water deficit varied from 19 mm to 47 mm and the temperature from 17.5°C to 20.5°C. According to the geospatial analysis and scientific geovisualization techniques, it was observed that most of the region is suitable for cultivation of Arabica coffee, but spatial variations in water deficit may interfere with productivity and economic viability of implementation in certain areas.