Determining the breaking points of the trend in long-term changes of air temperature in Barentsburg (Svalbard)

Abstract

Changes in the average annual surface air temperature (SAT) in Barentsburg (Svalbard) for the period 1899-2022 are considered. The SAT increases at an average rate of 0.34°C/10 years. The warming process is not continuous and consists of two periods of cooling and two periods of warming. Statistical methods have been used to establish the most probable position of the breaking points of the SAT trend: 1917, 1938, and 1968. The recent (“modern”) warming in the region began in the late 1960s, but since 1988, its intensity has doubled.