Abstract
In this study, we analyzed the changes in the average daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual surface air temperatures based on the temperature data obtained from seven stations (1 January 2005–31 December 2019; 15 years) belonging to the central Baltic area (Stockholm, Tallinn, Helsinki, Narva, Pärnu, Tartu, and Võru). The statistical analysis revealed that there was a strong correlation between the daily average surface air temperature of the studied cities (range: 0.95–0.99). We analyzed the frequency distribution of the average surface air temperatures in addition to the Kruskal–Wallis and Dunn’s tests (significance level of 0.05) to demonstrate that the difference in air temperatures between Narva, Tallinn, Tartu, and Stockholm are critical. The Welch’s t-test (significance level 0.05), used to study the differences in the average monthly air temperature of the cities in question, showed that the surface air temperatures in Stockholm do not differ from Tallinn air temperatures from May to August. However, the surface air temperatures of Narva were similar to those of Tallinn in September. According to our results, the trends in the changes of monthly average surface air temperatures have a certain course during the year (ranging from 1.8 °C (Stockholm) to 4.5 °C (Võru and Tartu) per decade in February). During the entire study period, in addition to February, the surface air temperature increased in all the studied cities in March, May, June, and December, and the surface air temperature did not increase in January or from July to October. During the study period, the average annual surface air temperature in the cities of the central Baltic area increased by 0.43 °C per decade. The results also confirm that the surface air temperature in the study area is changing differently in different cities. The acceleration of the surface air temperature is very alarming and requires a significant intensification of the measures taken to slow down the temperature rise.
Highlights
To forecast climate change and its potential environmental and societal impact, it is important to examine the evolution of changes in various components of the atmosphere
In this study, we analyzed the changes in the average daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual surface air temperatures based on the temperature data obtained from seven stations (1 January 2005– 31 December 2019; 15 years) belonging to the central Baltic area (Stockholm, Tallinn, Helsinki, Narva, Pärnu, Tartu, and Võru)
The statistical analysis revealed that there was a strong correlation between the daily average surface air temperature of the studied cities
Summary
To forecast climate change and its potential environmental and societal impact, it is important to examine the evolution of changes in various components of the atmosphere. Changes in surface air temperature have a significant effect, direct or indirect, on the ecological balance of the environment, biodiversity, and the extent of environmental pollution. This affects the functioning of a society, including the functioning of agriculture, and food supply, healthcare, industry, transport, and other infrastructure components [10,11,12,13,14,15]. Due to global warming, is having significant societal and economic consequences, which are more severe in some areas than in others It can have a greater negative impact on certain social groups, for example, the elderly and people with disabilities. Knowing the current condition of the environment and trends in its changes will help predict what developments are to be expected in the upcoming decades, which will have to be considered while drafting strategies on adaptation to changes
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