Foreign Policy Analysis Research Articles

The Self and the Other: Individual Emotions and Ontological Security in Turkish Foreign Policy

Emotions and ontological security open up one of the latest avenues in International Relations (IR). An increasing number of interdisciplinary approaches have been engaging in emotions and ontological security, for example, foreign policy analysis. However, academic research is scarce concerning the triangulation of emotions, foreign policy, and individual ontological security. Driven by the gap in the literature, the study analyzes how Turkey’s foreign policy decisions influence individual existentialism in terms of ontological security during the AKP era. A subsidiary question addresses how Turkey’s foreign policy decisions adjust/affect individual emotions towards its most engaged and interacted countries. Based on Ontological Security Theory (OST), the study has conducted 20 interviews. The questions cover Turkey’s foreign policy milestones: the start of the EU accession negotiations, the “one minute incident,” the Mavi Marmara incident, and the Arab Uprisings and the Syrian Civil War. The questions aim to reveal people’s emotional reactions to and descriptions of such events. The interview transcripts are analyzed in a Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) context. Through CDA, the individuals’ perceptions of risk, threat, and danger are analyzed to seek the determinants of growing existential uncertainty in tandem with significant foreign policy decisions of the AKP government. This study finds that foreign policy decisions in Turkey impact individuals’ emotions based on key events. Through the case of Turkey, the study contributes to the emerging literature on emotions and ontological security by studying the dimensions between foreign policy and individual insecurities and emotions.

Structured description, foreign policy analysis, and policy quality during the Biden decision to withdraw from Afghanistan

Structured description, foreign policy analysis, and policy quality during the Biden decision to withdraw from Afghanistan

Principled pragmatism: A Latin American contribution for foreign policy analysis?

The key purpose of this paper is to identify key Latin American theories proposed to study foreign policy. The essay points out that Latin America has made a significant contribution to foreign policy analysis. The most important conceptual contribution in the field is the concept of principled pragmatism. A crucial premise is that Latin American nations resort to this type of policy to come to agreement with the United States, address domestic issues, advance national interests, and cope with economic problems. The paper is divided into four sections. The first describes key analytical models and theoretical approaches created to explain foreign policy. The second identifies the Latin American thought on this subject. The third section explains the concept of principled pragmatism. This approach stems from the models and theories explained in the second section and from the Latin American thinking described in the third section. The last segment explains the case study of Cuban foreign policy in the early 1960s using the notion of principled pragmatism.

Canadian foreign policy analysis and Inuit within Canada

ABSTRACT This article examines transnational Indigenous cooperation among Permanent Participants in the Arctic Council using decolonialism and Indigenization in Canadian foreign policy analysis. The mainstream IR approaches primarily consider Indigenous NGOs as civil society groups united by common interests and cultures and as organizations that promote social change. This study argues that unlike other types of NGOs, Indigenous organizations have a complex social identity, which is influenced by settler-colonial heritage. Besides this, transnationalism promotes collective Indigenous agency. Like feminist IR, Indigenous IR scholarship challenges dominant worldviews and conceptualizations of Westphalian sovereignty, nation-state, and security. This study suggests comparing the state-centred IR concepts and Inuit within Canada’s understandings of the same terms. Although the Inuit within Canada perceive international relations distinctly, their conceptualizations of IR should be recognized by state structures. The article suggests that CFPA should incorporate Indigenous ways of knowing and promote transnational Indigenous IR studies to decolonize foreign policy and include Indigenous views in analysis.

Cold War Dynamics: The Strategic Interplay of Turkish-American Relations

Purpose: This article investigates the primary determinants of Turkish-American relations during the Cold War, focusing on key events and policies that influenced bilateral interactions. It aims to understand the impact of the Truman Doctrine, the Marshall Plan, NATO alliances, the Cyprus issue, and the Kurdish conflict on these relations. The study also critically assesses the role of ethnic lobbies, such as the Armenian and Greek communities, in shaping U.S. foreign policy towards Turkey. Method: Utilizing a comprehensive historical analysis, this research draws on different sources including speeches, and official correspondences, as well as secondary sources such as academic books, journal articles, and theses. This methodological approach allows for an in-depth exploration of the complex interplay between domestic politics and international diplomacy. Conclusion: The study reveals that Turkish-American relations during the Cold War were shaped by a combination of strategic alliances, regional conflicts, and domestic political influences. Key policies like the Truman Doctrine and the Marshall Plan were instrumental in solidifying Turkey as a critical ally, while events such as the Cyprus issue and the Kurdish conflict presented significant challenges. The influence of ethnic lobbies also played a crucial role in shaping bilateral relations. Implication of the Research: The insights gained from this analysis provide valuable lessons for future diplomatic efforts, emphasizing the need for cooperation, diversification of partnerships, and strategic alignment. Understanding the historical context of Turkish-American relations can inform current and future diplomacy, helping to navigate the complexities of this bilateral relationship. Originality of the Research: This research offers a unique and comprehensive examination of Turkish-American relations during the Cold War, incorporating a critical assessment of both strategic policies and the influence of ethnic lobbies. By providing a nuanced understanding of these factors, the study contributes original insights to the field of international relations and foreign policy analysis.

Critical discourse analysis of North Korea's foreign policy in Kim Jong Un's speech in 2022

The purpose of this article is to explore the discourse on the direction of North Korea's foreign policy under the leadership of Kim Jong Un. This article uses the concept of critical discourse analysis to analyze North Korea's foreign policy through Kim Jong Un's speech in 2022. For data collection, validation and linguistic investigation using the NVivo 12 Plus application. The data sources used are literature reviews through e-books, news, journals and Google Scholar. The results of the data processing show interesting findings, where in his speech in 2022, Kim Jong Un renewed his Law to threaten military action by South Korea and the United States. In addition, make North Korea's nuclear arsenal the most powerful and absolute and the "most powerful strategic weapon in the world". By developing the National Security discourse presented in 2022, the North Korean government can protect the country, people and sovereignty from enemy influence and make North Korea a country with world-recognized military defense. This National Security Discourse then becomes the main focus of Kim's foreign policy instrument in 2022.The purpose of this article is to explore the discourse on the direction of North Korea's foreign policy under the leadership of Kim Jong Un. This article uses the concept of critical discourse analysis to analyze North Korea's foreign policy through Kim Jong Un's speech in 2022. For data collection, validation and linguistic investigation using the NVivo 12 Plus application. The data sources used are literature reviews through e-books, news, journals and Google Scholar. The results of the data processing show interesting findings, where in his speech in 2022, Kim Jong Un renewed his Law to threaten military action by South Korea and the United States. In addition, make North Korea's nuclear arsenal the most powerful and absolute and the "most powerful strategic weapon in the world". By developing the National Security discourse presented in 2022, the North Korean government can protect the country, people and sovereignty from enemy influence and make North Korea a country with world-recognized military defense. This National Security Discourse then becomes the main focus of Kim's foreign policy instrument in 2022.

Should I Pay, Or Should I Quash? The Role of Governments’ Ideology in Ransom Payment

ABSTRACT Does governments’ ideology influence the likelihood of ransom payment? Despite a steady interest in hostage-taking events, this question remains unanswered. In this article, I argue that ideology contributes to explaining governments’ decisions to pay or not pay ransoms: guided by individualising moral foundations, left-leaning governments are more likely to concede to terrorists to save lives. I test the theoretical argument through a quantitative analysis of abductions between 1970 and 2020 whose victims are citizens of OECD member states. Two results stand out. The presence of leftist governments increases the likelihood of ransom payment, but the abduction of statesmen mitigates its impact. This work contributes to hostage-taking and Foreign Policy Analysis literature by covering an apparent gap in these fields. It also fosters studies on the role of ideology in security issues and moral dilemmas by focusing on a peculiar event that scholars have largely overlooked.

‘De Mistura ideas to reality are like windmills to Don Quixote’: A UN mediator in the Syrian conflict

ABSTRACT This article assesses the agency of UN mediators through a single case-study of the UN mediator in Syria – Staffan de Mistura. Drawing on and contributing to an emerging research agenda, we argue that UN mediators do have significant room of manoeuvre and thus the ability to conceive, negotiate, and execute key mediation policy-decisions. Our analysis bridges the literature on levels of analysis in International Relations (IR) and Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA). We developed a method that uses process-tracing to identify distinct mediation initiatives. We then pinpoint the mediator’s input on the conceptual and operational components of these main pillars of the mediation process. We question the prevailing perspective wherein the individual mediator has become conspicuous by their absence as the research gaze has been geared towards contextual constraints to mediation, the organization employing the mediator, and developing generic guides for good practice in ‘successful’ mediation. We put the study of the mediator’s agency firmly back into the comparative study of mediation, this way strengthening the validity of arguments that mediators’ personalities, skills and their individual characteristics shape their mediation initiatives just as they point up to considerable personal responsibility for which they need to be better held to account.

INDONESIA'S ATTITUDE IN FACING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA CONFLICT, POLICY ANALYSIS AND IMPLICATIONS

Background. The South China Sea conflict is one of the complex and challenging geopolitical issues in the Southeast Asia region. This study aimed to analyze Indonesia's attitude in dealing with this conflict, with a focus on foreign policy and its implications for regional stability. Research Method. This research uses a type of legal research that is normative in nature (normative legal research) and through a foreign policy analysis approach. Findings. The factors are diplomacy and negotiation policy, Indonesia's role in ASEAN, efforts to strengthen maritime cooperation, external actor involvement, the need for a just and sustainable settlement, impact on regional stability, and protection of national maritime interests that influence Indonesia's attitudes and the strategies taken by the Indonesian government in managing this conflict. The impact of Indonesia's attitude towards political and security dynamics in the Southeast Asia region. Conclusion. Indonesia has an important strategic role to play in addressing the South China Sea conflict as the largest maritime nation in Southeast Asia. Indonesia's presence in regional diplomacy and efforts to mediate the conflict are key to achieving a sustainable solution.

INFLUENCE OF NEO-OTTOMANISM TRADITIONS ON THE CURRENT STATE OF RUSSIAN-TURKISH RELATIONS: THEORY AND PRACTICE

The article examines the problems of the current state of Russian-Turkish relations through the analysis of the theoretical and methodological apparatus of neo-Ottomanism (new Ottomanism) as a foreign policy tradition, which, from the author’s point of view, today occupies one of the leading places in the foreign policy course of the current government of R.T. Erdogan. The complexity and uncertainty of this phenomenon require the use of specialized analysis methods: a system-structural analysis of the foreign policy of states (developed by the corresponding MGIMO school), a scientific approach within the framework of FPA (foreign policy analysis), separate tools for analyzing the strategic culture and foreign policy institutions of Ankara (according to the methodology of G. Almond and S. Verba). According to the author, for the current foreign policy of Ankara, the tradition of neo-Ottomanism is system-forming due to its ideological saturation of the initial ideological foundation. At the same time, the ambiguity of its interpretations lays down an expansive interpretation of Turkey’s foreign policy behavior in the international arena, which is fraught with problems and conflicts for Moscow’s foreign policy in realizing its interests in areas of international politics that cross Ankara.

Roles and ideologies in foreign policy: the Czech positions on the EU migration crisis

ABSTRACT Role theory and the study of ideology represent two important concepts of Foreign Policy Analysis. While the former sheds light on the positions which a country assumes on the international stage, the latter examines the deep ideational grounds on which foreign policy rests. This article integrates roles and ideologies to define foreign policy positions. An analysis of the Czech foreign policy during the EU migration crisis identifies four ideologies (Atlanticism, Europeanism, Internationalism and Sovereignism) and five roles (Democracy Supporter, Faithful Ally, Regional Collaborator, Reformer, and Prosperity Builder). On this basis, a number of foreign policy positions are defined, among which that of a Europeanist Reformer stands out as it synthesises two patterns of the Czech foreign policy: its striving for international recognition and its striving for national autonomy. The article also argues that during the migration crisis, the striving for autonomy was somewhat stronger than before.

Role Theory, Non-Coercive Influence, and the Agency of Target States: The Case of Kazakhstan’s Ambassadorial Corps and the Russian Diplomatic Academy

Abstract This article contributes to foreign policy analysis by applying role theory to the study of soft power, evaluating the relationship between a state’s chosen international role(s) and susceptibility to non-coercive influence. I argue that in countries where said role involves committed engagement with varied power poles, elites derive benefits from their various partners and thus abide soft power bases such as the Russian Diplomatic Academy (RDA) without violating the principle of autonomy maximization. I utilize a mixed methods approach, using logistic regression as part of a qualitative case study of Kazakhstan. Drawing on an original dataset of Kazakhstani ambassadors since 1992, I find that foreign policy role better explains the continued presence of RDA-trained diplomats within the Kazakhstani ambassadorial corps than traditional security arguments. This outcome demonstrates the promise of examining soft power through the lens of role theory, with an emphasis on the agency of potential targets of influence.

Strategy Is Only Partly an Illusion: “Relative Foresight” as an Objective Standard for Evaluating Foreign Policy Competence

Abstract Foreign policymakers must grapple with complexity, uncertainty, and subjectivity. These challenges raise the possibility that “strategy is an illusion”: that there is no reliable method for assessing skill at managing international politics. By contrast, we show that researchers can objectively evaluate a critical component of foreign policy competence using a standard we call “relative foresight,” defined as decision-makers’ ability to anticipate consequences of their choices as compared to alternative views based on similar information. Relative foresight can be measured without relying on value judgments or subjective probabilities. By contrast, other common frameworks for gauging foreign policy competence, such as comparing leaders’ behavior to the rational actor model or assessing procedural rationality, almost always leave room for reasonable disagreement. We demonstrate that relative foresight provides a useful tool for evaluating major foreign policy choices through case studies of Barack Obama’s decisions regarding the Afghan Surge and the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound. Our framework has broad implications for research on normative, prescriptive, and descriptive dimensions of foreign policy analysis.

Between regional cooperation and strategic reorganization: An examination of the change in perceptions in Japanese security policy

ABSTRACT With Japan’s new connectivity initiative, the Free and Open Indo-Pacific, alongside several previous doctrines, Tokyo has started to shift its regional security policy focus towards democratic states in the Asia-Pacific. Qualitative case studies on bilateral and multilateral cooperation in the Indo-Pacific assess these changes as reflecting a more proactive security policy initiated under the Abe administration (2012–2020). While Tokyo’s security policy towards Southeast Asia has certainly changed both qualitatively and quantitatively since 2012/2013, explaining this change by referring solely to Prime Minister Abe’s foreign policy agenda falls short. Rather, Japan’s new strategy is the result of a change in perceptions among executive officials in the foreign and defense ministries that had already been initiated in the 2000s. This study looks at this development and examines the role of the Prime Minister’s Office of Japan (Kantei), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA), and the Ministry of Defense (MOD) in initiating the change and assesses Japan’s Pacific strategy through an interview-based qualitative case study. Using the concept of “foreign policy analysis” and based on official publications and interviews with representatives of the MOD, the MOFA, and Kantei advisors, this study expands the qualitative aspect of existing research and shows that the origins of this new regionalism are found primarily in the changing perceptions of executive officials. It also points to the importance of analyzing administrative executives at the interface among Kantei, the MOFA, and the MOD, which can shed new light on the reasons behind Japan’s regional strategy shift.

Keep the Peace at Home to Shape the Peace Abroad: A Study of Elite Influence on Winston Churchill and British Foreign Policy at the Yalta Conference, 1945

ABSTRACT As the end of World War II and a parliamentary election approached, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s wartime authority diminished. The erosion of influence at home could not have come at a worse time for Churchill abroad, who sought to rebuild a postwar world order at the February 1945 Yalta Conference to resurrect Britain’s global influence. Exploiting the erosion of Churchill’s unprecedented wartime powers, formal and fringe political elites pressured Churchill to align his postwar preferences at Yalta with prevailing elite views on major geopolitical issues. In doing so, these elites – which included senior government officials, newspaper editorialists, and members of Parliament – ultimately compelled Churchill to advocate for the United Nations and a free and democratic Poland at Yalta, despite his belief that both plans would undermine Britain’s postwar influence. In examining the critical role elite-leader relations played in shaping Cold War history, this paper seeks to improve the study of democratic foreign policy analysis by emphasizing Kenneth Waltz’s “first image” (the role of a leader’s motivations and intentions) and the role of non-government (or “fringe”) elites. Finally, it concludes that parliamentary democracies are more receptive to elite influence because elites have greater opportunities to drive policy debates and challenge political authority.

Comparative Foreign Policy Analysis (CFP) of Nigeria and South Africa: An overview

This article assesses the foreign policy roles of Nigeria and South Africa, given their status as regional powers, and the regional complexes within which they operate. Drawing references from a plethora of policies and speeches of the Presidents of the two States, this article argues that CFP, given its emphasis on foreign policy decision-making processes related to momentous events as well as its implication in day-to-day events, is useful as a theoretical framework in this assessment. Nigeria and South Africa are both active state actors in the international system. Unarguably, Nigeria and South Africa are two important nations in the continent of Africa whose foreign policy actions and inactions are crucial to the desire development of their areas of regional and global influence, particularly for the African continent. Methodologically, it employs the use of comparative analysis relying solely on secondary information for data generation and analysis of the direction of the foreign policy of Nigeria and South Africa. The article contributes to the literature by illustrating the potential impact and regional implications of foreign policy analysis as an approach to international relations (IR), within which the behavior of these two African States can be analyzed in the wake of new members into BRICS, African Union (AU) been made a permanent member of the G20, giving the continent an important voice on key global issues. Noting that the dynamic evolving role of South Africa and Nigeria in the global arena, should be expected to increase positioning Africa in decision making process of both regional and world politics; regional and global peace and security, such as in Ukraine crisis and reform within the United Nations security Council. Both countries need to unite their efforts and practical strategies to advance the common goal of Africa development, peace and security.

What ASEAN Must Learn from Timor-Leste: A Tripartite Analysis on Australian Foreign Policy Related to Timor Sea Treaty 2018

The Timor Gap had been a hotspot of territorial dispute between Australia and Timor-Leste. In 2018, Australia finally agreed to settle a permanent maritime boundary in favour of Timor-Leste. Why was Australia willing to sacrifice the border and give a favourable outcome to Timor-Leste? The research examined the importance of the tripartite approach to Foreign Policy analysis to understand why a country may choose seemingly unfavourable options in territorial disputes. The analysis showed how Australian foreign policy was influenced by agency-structure interactions within the international system. The research demonstrated that structural constraints at the international level influenced Australia’s decision, including the South China Sea dispute between ASEAN members and China, previous agreements Australia-Timor-Leste on the management of the Timor Gap, and domestic political dynamics in Australia. The research reveals a relationship between actors’ structural and dispositional dimensions in foreign policy. In the case of Australia, there is a strong link between democratic values ​​and respect for the international rules-based order. Altogether, this situation prompted Australia to continue negotiations with Timor-Leste over the Timor Gap and ultimately to accept an agreement for maritime delimitation in Timor-Leste’s favor.

Critical Annotations on Historical Documents: Methodological Possibilities for International Relations Research

This process note explicates the methodological intervention of maintaining fieldnotes on government documents and its significance for historically situated international relations (IR) research. For the most part, IR scholarship treats archival documents as the neutral preserve of the state, representing its coherent national interests. Building on discussions around critical methods within IR, I argue that there is a need to reflexively engage with the writing and curating practices of the state. This process note deploys the ethnographic hallmark of thick description within IR research through critical annotations on archival documents and other government publications on India’s eastern Himalayan borderlands between 1880 and 1965. These annotations encourage a granular reading of government documents and situate them within a larger context of their production, reception, archival memorialisation and subsequent access. I propose that critical annotations help us move beyond post-hoc analyses of foreign policy in terms of success and failure. Instead, in viewing IR theorising as ‘unfinished dictionaries of the international’, I argue that critical annotations challenge a unitary view of the state and facilitate a more nuanced analysis of foreign policymaking emphasising historical contingencies within which policies are articulated and enacted.

Unpacking Altercasting in Role Theory: The Biden Administration's Policy of Altercasting Germany into a Faithful Ally Role in Relations with China

Abstract The article contributes to scholarship on symbolic interactionist role theory in Foreign Policy Analysis, focusing on the concept of altercasting. Altercasting refers to verbal and non-verbal state behaviors in a role relationship to cast another state into roles that are complementary to its own roles. The article suggests putting more attention on the agency of the actor “doing” the altercasting to gain a better understanding of how altercasting works. To this purpose, the article develops a framework to unpack the agency of the altercasting actor. The framework addresses the preconditions for actors to engage in altercasting, the interplay of altercasting with domestic politics, and the available altercasting techniques. The article illustrates this framework in a case study on the efforts of the Biden administration to altercast Germany into a “faithful ally” role vis-à-vis China when the new German government transitioned into office in late 2021. Building on evidence from expert interviews among the U.S. foreign policy community, the case study demonstrates that the Biden administration had clear role expectations of Germany and understood the balance of opinion between the German coalition parties. The Biden administration used the altercasting techniques of self-presentation, signaling approval, and disapproval and making direct behavioral demands.

Indonesia's Role in Supporting Palestinian Independence and Responding to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Analysis of Foreign Policy and Current Issues

This study analyzes Indonesia's role in supporting Palestinian independence and responding to current issues related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Since the beginning of its independence, Indonesia has shown a strong commitment to the struggle for Palestinian independence. Factors such as anti-colonialism values, strong attachment to Islam, and concern for humanity have encouraged Indonesia to continue to support the rights of the Palestinian people. In the context of international diplomacy, Indonesia has utilized its membership in various organizations, such as the UN, OIC, and NAM, to fight for the Palestinian issue. The quick response to unilateral policies regarding the status of Jerusalem and active involvement in international forums shows Indonesia's seriousness in supporting Palestinian independence. With good relations with major powers in the Middle East and involvement in regional and international organizations, Indonesia has great potential as a mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.