Accident Risk Analysis Research Articles

State Defense Perspective: Disaster Risk Analysis of Air Transportation Accidents

The aim of this study was to analyse disaster risk of air transportation accidents in the national defense system perspectives and also the efforts of airport authority to manage the risk. A qualitative, narative and exploratory study was developed using risk management ISO 31000 as a method to analyse data. Interview, literature study and documentation were done to collect data. This study used purposive sampling to decide informants. It was found that Halim Perdanakusuma International Airport had a high risk in air transportation accidents. To keep the stability of national defense, the risk had to be managed through structural mitigation and non-structural mitigation

Методы анализа и способы минимизации технологических и технических рисков энергопредприятия

Objective: Identifying an accurate quantitative risk assessment. FEC (Fuel and Energy Complex) plants are a high-risk area as they may cause manmade disasters, various accidents, pose a threat to human life and environment. In addition, the Russian energy industry is noted for its high complexity and social responsibility. Its specific feature is that it is not always possible to make an accurate quantitative risk assessment reasonably in advance and its degree determination methods are not well enough developed. In view of the above, there are some difficulties in minimizing the risks and estimating risk management costs. There has been a recent trend in improved current legislation on industrial safety and Rostechnadzor (Federal Environmental, Industrial and Nuclear Supervision Service of Russia) oversight and supervision activity practice toward implementing a risk-based approach using the risk analysis methods. It allows optimizing the methods and frequency of inspections made by regulatory bodies depending on the risk level of facilities supervised. Methods: The (accident) risk analysis is performed as a certain scientific justification set forth using qualitative and quantitative analysis of a potential accident likelihood, consequences of its occurrence, and identification of the weakest points in the engineering system or complex. Using fault tree analysis, this article identifies hazards and assesses the high-pressure gas pipeline loss of containment risk, one of the events possible for an energy provider in operation. Results: Based on the risk analysis, there has been a proposal to replace gland seal valves with bellows seal valves noted for their optimum relationship between the unit reliability, cost and sophistication level. In case the facilities with gland seal valves remain in operation, improved production process monitoring is recommended using gas leak detectors and automatic interlocking devices. Practical importance: The measures proposed will allow minimizing the gas pipeline loss of containment risk.

Simulation-based risk analysis of water pollution accidents combining multi-stressors and multi-receptors in a coastal watershed

As environmentally important ecosystems, coastal watersheds are vulnerable to abrupt water pollution events. Previous researches of accidental pollution in coastal watersheds mostly focused on oil leakages from mobile sources, pipelines, or stationary sources; however few considered chemical pollution accidents from terrestrial stationary sources. The present paper uses one-dimensional and MIKE 21 convection-diffusion models to simulate chemical transport processes in coastal rivers and in near-shore seas. Based on the simulation results, a Coastal Accidental Water Pollution Risk Analysis (CAWPRA) method is proposed. CAWPRA considers acute pollution risk passing from upstream to downstream, and to estuary and near-shore sea areas in a coastal watershed. The method is applied to Beihai City, a typical coastal area of rising economic development, to provide a risk assessment based on simulations of water accidental pollution from terrestrial stationary sources. A leakage event of hydrochloric acid from Wenkehaiyang Co. Ltd is taken as an example. Water quality simulation results indicate that after 6, 12, 18, and 24h the peak concentrations of hydrochloric acid would be 3.72, 0.91, 0.75, and 0.68mg/l, respectively, and accordingly, the areas of coastal water exceeding the seawater quality standard would be 5.56, 4.92, 9.71, and 45.01km2, respectively. Hydrochloric acid would reach Dangjiang Mangrove Nature Reserve a time 14h after the leakage event first occurred. The resultant map indicates high, medium, and low risk sub-areas. The map is useful at identifying the most risky sources and the most vulnerable receptors for the Beihai coastal watershed.

Validation of the accuracy of surveying control over condition of earth dams at liquid waste ponds at mines

The authors propose the approach to validation of the surveying control accuracy in safety monitoring of earth dams in terms of liquid waste receivers at mines. Based on the system structuring of types of earth dams and their elements, estimation of influence of loads and effects exerted to these structures, as well as the analysis of accident risks using the Hazard and Serviceability Analysis, an ideal sign model of earth dam safety monitoring has been constructed and the scope of field observation has been specified to record hazardous off-sets and prevent hydrodynamic accidents. By modeling an ideal earth dam, the authors determine the dam stress–strain state criteria. From the condition of non-admittance of limit equilibrium disturbance of the earth structure, the requirements on the accuracy of horizontal and vertical surveying control over structural elements of dams are set.

A Flexible Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Technique for Risk Analysis of Major Accidents.

Safety analysis of rare events with potentially catastrophic consequences is challenged by data scarcity and uncertainty. Traditional causation-based approaches, such as fault tree and event tree (used to model rare event), suffer from a number of weaknesses. These include the static structure of the event causation, lack of event occurrence data, and need for reliable prior information. In this study, a new hierarchical Bayesian modeling based technique is proposed to overcome these drawbacks. The proposed technique can be used as a flexible technique for risk analysis of major accidents. It enables both forward and backward analysis in quantitative reasoning and the treatment of interdependence among the model parameters. Source-to-source variability in data sources is also taken into account through a robust probabilistic safety analysis. The applicability of the proposed technique has been demonstrated through a case study in marine and offshore industry.

Research of Ammonia Concentration Distribution Simulation in Road Transportation Leakage Based on the Gaussian Model

The leakage of liquid ammonia during road transportation is chosen as the research object in this paper, and then the model of toxic gas diffusion after leakage accident is established; MATLAB is used to achieve the accident simulation and risk analysis of continuous leakage from moving and fixed point source. On the basis of different harm to human body of different concentrations of ammonia and the spread concentration curve of the ammonia, the dangerous area is divided into five zones: mild zone, moderate zone, severe zone, dead zone and instantaneous dead zone; according to the comparison between leakage diffusion processes from moving and fixed point source, following conclusions can be reached: during the leakage, area of dangerous zones increased and after the leakage, dangerous zone areas first increased and then decreased; the peak ammonia concentration from fixed source is higher than that from moving point source, whereas influence area of the former is smaller than the latter. This method can quickly simulate the scope and severity of leakage accident in road transportation and provide references for the emergency rescue after accidents.

Traffic Accident Risk Analysis by Knowledge, the Use of Traffic Lane, and Speed

Traffic accidents are a health problem in both developed and developing countries including Indonesia. Number of traffic accidents each year has increased and traffic accidents in Indonesia is considered by WHO as the third biggest killer after coronary heart disease and tuberculosis. Most traffic accidents involving motorcyclists and the current junior high school students are also involved as a perpetrator of the accident. This study was conducted to determine the relationship of knowledge, the use of traffic lane and the driving speed with the incidence of traffic accidents in junior high school students motorcyclists. Type of research is analytic observational cross-sectional study design. The study population was all junior high school students in Wonokromo Surabaya in 2015. The number of respondents in this study of 100 respondents drawn from the population by using two stage cluster random sampling. The variables studied were knowledge, the use of traffic lane and the driving speed. Results of analysis using chi square test (α = 5%) indicate that knowledge (p = 0,027; RR = 1,966), the use of traffic lane (p = 0,005; RR = 1,894) and the driving speed (p = 0,017; RR = 1,941) has a significantly relationship to the incidence of traffic accidents to junior high school students motorcyclists in Wonokromo sub-district Surabaya 2015. Especially under age children of junior high school student are encouraged to not ride a motorcycle before age sufficient and have a driver’s licence. Beside that, the role of parents to prevent underage motorcyclists is needed to support the efforts of the police and schools in minimizing the number of accident to reduce the number of junir high school student involved in a motorcycle accident.Keywords: traffic accident, risk factors, knowledge, traffic lane, speed

Traffic Accident Risk Analysis by Knowledge, the Use of Traffic Lane, and Speed

Traffic accidents are a health problem in both developed and developing countries including Indonesia. Number of traffic accidents each year has increased and traffic accidents in Indonesia is considered by WHO as the third biggest killer after coronary heart disease and tuberculosis. Most traffic accidents involving motorcyclists and the current junior high school students are also involved as a perpetrator of the accident. This study was conducted to determine the relationship of knowledge, the use of traffic lane and the driving speed with the incidence of traffic accidents in junior high school students motorcyclists. Type of research is analytic observational cross-sectional study design. The study population was all junior high school students in Wonokromo Surabaya in 2015. The number of respondents in this study of 100 respondents drawn from the population by using two stage cluster random sampling. The variables studied were knowledge, the use of traffic lane and the driving speed. Results of analysis using chi square test (α = 5%) indicate that knowledge (p = 0,027; RR = 1,966), the use of traffic lane (p = 0,005; RR = 1,894) and the driving speed (p = 0,017; RR = 1,941) has a significantly relationship to the incidence of traffic accidents to junior high school students motorcyclists in Wonokromo sub-district Surabaya 2015. Especially under age children of junior high school student are encouraged to not ride a motorcycle before age sufficient and have a driver’s licence. Beside that, the role of parents to prevent underage motorcyclists is needed to support the efforts of the police and schools in minimizing the number of accident to reduce the number of junir high school student involved in a motorcycle accident.Keywords: traffic accident, risk factors, knowledge, traffic lane, speed

A risk analysis of accidents for improving port logistics productivity - A case study of a container operator of a port -

A risk analysis of accidents for improving port logistics productivity - A case study of a container operator of a port -

화물차량의 사고위험도 분석 및 통행속도 제한기준 정립

화물차량의 사고위험도 분석 및 통행속도 제한기준 정립

Analysis of Accident Risks from Driving Behaviors

Detecting aggressive driving behavior is essential for safe transport systems as it leads to the awareness of risks of accidents. Using smartphone-equipped sensors would be promising approach considering the penetration ratio to the consumers. In this paper, we have used a large dataset of accelerometer readings collected by smartphones of drivers. The experiment was performed to explore the accident risk indexes which statistically separate the safe drivers and risky drivers. By the statistical analysis, it is found that the frequency of acceleration exceeding 2.4 m/s2, that of deceleration exceeding 1.4 m/s2, and that of left acceleration exceeding 1.1 m/s2 separate the safe drivers and risky drivers. The classifier using these three criteria achieves 70 % classification accuracy and 83 % detection accuracy of risky drivers.

THE ANALYSIS OF DANGERS, ASSESSMENT OF RISK OF ACCIDENTS ON HAZARDOUS PRODUCTION FACILITY AND THE RECOMMENDATION ABOUT THE CHOICE OF METHODS OF THE ANALYSIS OF RISK

High level of threat of emergency situations of natural and technogenic nature and tendency of growth of quantity and scales of consequences of emergency situations require to expect future threats, risks and dangers, to apply methods of their forecast and prevention. In article the main questions connected with the analysis of dangers, a risk assessment are considered. It is shown that a main objective of risk analysis of accidents is establishment of degree of emergency danger of hazardous production facilities and (or) its components for the advance prevention of threats of damnification of life, to human health, harm to animals, plants, environment, safety of the state, property of physical persons and legal entities, the state-owned or municipal property, threats of emergence of accidents and (or) emergency situations of technogenic nature, development, planned implementation and timely adjustment of reasonable recommendations about decrease in risk of accidents Methodical the basics on carrying out the analysis of dangers and risk assessments of accidents on hazardous production facilities are covered. Methods of risk analysis of accidents are described and analysed. Recommendations about the choice of methods for different types of activities and the main stages of lifecycle of dangerous production process are provided. The quantitative risk assessment of accidents is characterized by calculation of several indicators of risk and can also include one or several above-mentioned methods (or to use their results) and allows to estimate and compare various dangers and hazardous production facilities on single indicators and is most effective.

Product Quality Accidents Risk Analyzing Approach based on the Extended FTA and Failure Cost

Various type quality accidents occurred and reported in the field of different product in the large manufacturing companies, how to identify the root causes and rank the mitigation measures are always a puzzle for their quality and after-sales departments. Therefore, in order to improve the failure mechanism modeling ability of quality improvement methods, the extended FTA (Fault tree analysis) considering the common cause failures effect and failure cost are introduced into the risk analysis for product quality accident at the first time. Firstly, risk analysis basics for quality accident of risk formation mechanism, common cause failures and extended FTA model are defined. Secondly, quality accident risk computation model based on failure cost is presented to quantitate the risk. Thirdly, an integrated quality accident risk analysis approach is established, which includes the root causes analyzing and safety measures ranking. Finally, a case study of quality risk analysis for cooling system is carried out to verify the proposed method.

Risk management framework for safe transportation of petroleum products in Nigeria: Learning from past accidents and good practices

Many accidents involving trucking petroleum products by road in Nigeria have been associated with consequential effects on human safety and the environment. Such accidents have exposed the lack of accident risk management structure in Nigeria. Following an initial analysis of regulatory framework for downstream petroleum activities and a scoping exercise with sampled stakeholders in Nigeria, we conducted 19 semi-structured interviews and collected 2318 accident reports involving truck tankers, which we used for accident risk analysis. Analysis of accident reports shows that 79 per cent of the accidents were caused by human factors such as dangerous driving and speed violation. Accidents were categorised based on reported fatalities. Most of the accidents with deaths had 1–5 fatalities, with approximate cumulative frequency of 0.89. Accident hotspots across Nigerian states were identified. Thematic interview analysis reveals a number of contributory factors to regulatory deficit including limited regulatory resources, poor accident reporting and investigating culture, corruption and rent seeking culture. A risk management framework was therefore proposed. The framework is designed to be utilised by both regulators and operators in Nigeria and adheres to principles of commitment to change, collaboration, organisation and communication, enhancing knowledge of hazards and risks, and continues improvement.

Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network

To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents.

Risk-based design of process plants with regard to domino effects and land use planning

Land use planning (LUP) as an effective and crucial safety measure has widely been employed by safety experts and decision makers to mitigate off-site risks posed by major accidents. Accordingly, the concept of LUP in chemical plants has traditionally been considered from two perspectives: (i) land developments around existing chemical plants considering potential off-site risks posed by major accidents and (ii) development of existing chemical plants considering nearby land developments and the level of additional off-site risks the land developments would be exposed to. However, the attempts made to design chemical plants with regard to LUP requirements have been few, most of which have neglected the role of domino effects in risk analysis of major accidents. To overcome the limitations of previous work, first, we developed a Bayesian network methodology to calculate both on-site and off-site risks of major accidents while taking domino effects into account. Second, we combined the results of risk analysis with Analytic Hierarchical Process to design an optimal layout for which the levels of on-site and off-site risks would be minimum.

Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning.

Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well-established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents' relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor-based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates.

A Proposal on Occupational Accident Risk Analysis: A Case Study of a Marble Factory

ABSTRACTIn this article, some occupational risk analyses are summarized, and then the possible occupational accidents, and their causes and effects are discussed. In the second section, an idea on risk analysis called Failure-Consequence Analysis is proposed to be applied in workplaces. In the third section, a case study about the implementation of this method in a marble factory is given as an example. In the final section, advantages and disadvantages of the proposal are discussed.As a result, it's suggested that the proposal is simple, easy, and can be applied quickly. It can identify the possible accident spots, severities, and causes in a single pass in the facility.

Key variables identification and proactive assessment of real-time traffic flow accident risk on urban expressway

Based on accident data and detector data collected on two expressways in Shanghai, important variables for model construction were selected from the data of traffic flow within 5~10 min before the accident with random forest model. Then, the Bayesian network (BN) model based on the Gaussian mixture model and expected maximum algorithm was established for the analysis of real-time traffic flow state and accident risk. Meanwhile, the transferability of BN model was also assessed. The results show that BN model built with selected important variables is better than that with direct detection data, with the accident prediction accuracy rate of 82.78%. The results of the transferability show that the improved BN model is still better than the traditional model, though the accident prediction accuracy of BN model decreases.

Probabilistic risk assessment of major accidents: application to offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico

Major accidents are low-frequency, high-consequence accidents which are not well supported by conventional statistical methods due to the scarcity of directly relevant data. Modeling and decomposition techniques such as event tree have been proved as robust alternatives as they facilitate incorporation of partially relevant near accident data–accident precursor data—in probability estimation and risk analysis of major accidents. In this study, we developed a methodology based on event tree and hierarchical Bayesian analysis to establish informative distributions for offshore blowouts using data of near accidents, such as kicks, leaks, and failure of blowout preventers collected from a variety of offshore drilling rigs. These informative distributions can be used as predictive tools to estimate relevant failure probabilities in the future. Further, having a set of near accident data of a drilling rig of interest, the informative distributions can be updated to render case-specific posterior distributions which are of great importance in quantitative risk analysis. To cope with uncertainties, we implemented the methodology in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework and applied it to risk assessment of offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico.