Amu Darya Basin Research Articles

What drives the distinct evolution of the Aral Sea and Lake Balkhash? Insights from a novel CD-RF-FA method

Study RegionThe Aral Sea and Lake Balkhash. Study FocusThis study explores the impacts of climate change and human activities on the inflow of the Aral Sea and Lake Balkhash, revealing the different driving factors behind the evolution of inland lakes in arid environments. To achieve this, we propose a novel approach that combines classical seasonal decomposition with Random Forest and Factor Analysis (CD-RF-FA) to quantitatively assess the influences of climate change and human activities on lake inflow. New Hydrological Insights for the RegionDuring the period from 1960 to 1990, anthropogenic factors predominantly influenced the inflow to the lakes, contributing 89.9 %, 91.8 %, and 91.6 % to the Lake Balkhash Basin (BAK), the Syr Darya Basin (SYR), and the Amu Darya Basin (AMU), respectively. However, from 1991 to 2020, the influence of human activities diminished, and climate variables gradually dominated the changes in inflow, contributing 52.2 % and 47.2 % to BAK and SYR, respectively, with upstream inflow being the main driving factor. Additionally, reservoir construction and political factors also played significant roles in the variation of inflow, exerting direct or indirect effects. This study provides crucial insights into the complex interplay of factors affecting inland lakes in arid regions and informs strategies to mitigate the Aral Sea Syndrome.

Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin

AbstractWater scarcity is a major challenge facing many regions worldwide, especially arid and semi‐arid areas that are increasingly vulnerable to climate change. This study aimed to project water availability in the Amu Darya Basin (ADB) of Central Asia under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6) during two upcoming periods (2020–2059 and 2060–2099). The study used a robust machine learning approach, namely a Random Forest (RF) model, to simulate Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) data from precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin). It then incorporated precipitation, Tmax and Tmin from four selected CMIP6 GCMs, into a water storage model to project spatiotemporal changes in water availability across the basin. The study also evaluated the relative impacts of land use and population on TWS. Results indicate an increase in TWS by approximately 4 cm in the basin's eastern, northwestern and southwestern regions in both future periods, while a decrease by approximately −4 cm in the remaining areas. These projections suggest that TWS will decline in densely populated regions and increase in certain intensively cultivated areas. The most pronounced increase in TWS is anticipated in the snow‐covered Tundra climate zone of the basin. This is attributed to the melting of glaciers, which contributes to runoff in the tributaries of the Amu River. The findings highlight the importance of considering climate change and socioeconomic factors when projecting water availability in arid and semi‐arid regions. The projected changes in TWS have important implications for water resources management in the ADB, particularly in densely populated and intensively cultivated areas.

ENSO-based outlook of droughts and agricultural outcomes in Afghanistan

Drought is one of the key drivers of food insecurity in Afghanistan, which is among the most food insecure countries in the world. In this study, we build on previous research and seek to answer the central question: “What is the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on drought outlooks and agricultural yield outcome in Afghanistan, and how do these influences vary spatially?” We do so by utilizing multiple indicators of droughts and available wheat yield reports. We find a clear distinction in the probability of drought (defined as being in the lower tercile) in Afghanistan during La Niña compared to El Niño events since 1981. The probability of drought in Afghanistan increased during La Niña, particularly in the North, Northeast, and West regions. La Niña events are related to an increase in the probability of snow drought, particularly in parts of the Amu Darya basin. It is found that relative to El Niño events, snow water equivalent [total runoff] during La Niña events January–March (March–July total runoff) decreases between 9% and 30% (28%–42%) for the five major basins in the country. The probability of agricultural drought during La Niña events is found to be higher than 70% in the rainfed and irrigated areas of the Northeast, North, and West regions. This result is at least partly supported by reported wheat yield composites related to La Niña events that tend to be lower than for El Niño events across all regions in the case of rainfed wheat (statistically significant in Northeast, West, and South regions) and in some cases for irrigated wheat. The results of this study have direct implications for improving early warning of worsening food insecurity in Afghanistan during La Niña events, given that we now have long-lead and skillful forecasts of ENSO up to 18–24 months in advance, which could potentially be used to provide earlier warning of worsening food insecurity in Afghanistan

Dynamic Geomorphology of the Amu Darya Basin in Afghanistan: A Study of Physiography, Basin Erosion, and Channel Development

The morphological dynamics of rivers are motivated by way of a number of things, including floodplain sedimentation, channel migration, sediment transport, and hydrodynamics. A considerable information of the complicated dynamics of river structures is important to layout river initiatives which can be sustainable and environmentally conscious. Implementing thorough river control plans that include hydraulic infrastructure and ecological restoration projects is important to overcoming these boundaries. This solution will effectively manipulate competing needs for water resources whilst ensuring the preservation of the location's herbal heritage. In the cease, this study affords essential new understandings of the complex interactions between hydrological patterns, human hobby, and geological procedures within the Amu Darya Basin. The application of sustainable land control and water useful resource making plans in Afghanistan might be appreciably impacted with the aid of those findings. Afghanistan has a lot of freshwaters because the Hindu Kush Mountains receive a significant quantity of precipitation. An estimated 75 billion cubic meters of potential water resources, consisting of 57 billion cubic meters of surface water and 18 billion cubic meters of groundwater, are found in Afghanistan. The Amu Darya, Northern River Basin, Helmand River Basin, Harirud-Marghab River Basin, and Kabul River Basin make up the Indus River Basin, which provides around two-thirds of Afghanistan's freshwater resources. All of Afghanistan's rivers, with the exception of the Northern River, flow across international borders into neighboring countries. The distribution of water from the Amu Darya River was subject to limitations imposed by the USSR, which was previously known as the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. The majority of the water is used mostly for farming. Protocol 566, formally ratified by the former USSR, allowed the transfer of water from the Amu Darya River to the four Central Asian Republics (CARs) of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and the Kyrgyz Republic. By investigating the bodily functions of the basin, which includes land erosion and channel development, this looks at seeks to enhance our understanding of the landscape evolution of the basin. Our intention is to improve our information of the landforms, tectonic activity history, and the consequences of climate change inside the region by utilizing geological studies and facts from faraway sensing.

Northward shift of Indian summer monsoon and intensifying winter westerlies cause stronger precipitation seasonality over Pamirs and its downstream basins in the 21st century

Hydroclimate will change over Pamirs and its downstream basins (PDB), including Indus River, Tarim River, Amu Darya and Syr Darya Basins, in response to the variation of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and mid-latitude westerlies. However, the precipitation variation and its mechanism over PDB in the 21st century are yet not fully understood. Here, the best models ensemble selected from 25 CMIP6 models under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios is applied to detect the precipitation variations over PDB in the 21st century. A remarkable dipolar pattern is found in both summer and winter precipitation over PDB, particularly in the central Indus River Basin and upper Amu and Syr Darya Basins. The central Indus River Basin (upper Amu and Syr Darya Basins) will experience an increasingly wet (dry) summer in response to northward ISM and a dry (wet) winter driven by mid-latitude westerlies. The amplifying dipolar pattern of seasonal precipitation thus increases the water resource vulnerability over PDB and emphasizes the role of Pamirs in modulating the water resources over surrounding basins, especially the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Basins in the future. The findings underscore the need for prioritizing policies by considering the impacts of precipitation seasonality on social planning.

Conveyance efficiency and irrigation water productivity under varying water supply conditions in arid lowlands of Central Asia

A proper assessment of the water allocation system and water–food production relationships is essential to identify water use reduction potentials and enhance crop water productivity in dry areas. However, limited data on crop-specific water uses and water losses in the system, especially in developing and transition countries, prevent consistent diagnosis of issues in water systems. A modeling framework based on maximum entropy approach was implemented here to simultaneously assess water system structure and ‘water use-crop production’ relationships. The framework allowed for the analysis of long-term changes in conveyance efficiency, crop-specific water application, and irrigation water productivity between 1980 and 2021 in the Khorezm region in the lower reaches of the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia. The results showed that conveyance losses were more than 30% in the system, and approximately 40% of the water allocated to the region went to rice and cotton production, indicating the possibility of water use reduction in these three areas. Conveyance efficiency and cotton water productivity improved in drier years in the region, owing to the wide implementation of temporary and low-cost drought management measures. The expected increase in the frequency and magnitude of droughts may require long-term investment-demanding strategies for drought management to enhance the sustainable livelihoods in the region.

Geological characteristics and developmental achievements of the large presalt carbonate gas fields in the Amu Darya Basin

The Amu Darya Basin accounts for one of the most abundant natural gas resources globally, it is the main gas supplier to the Central Asian natural gas pipeline. It also holds potential for the natural gas exploration and development. Within this basin, valuable Jurassic carbonate rocks and gypsum-salt-gas-bearing combinations are developed. These include the presalt transitional Middle and Lower Jurassic coal-bearing source rocks, which provide sufficient gas sources, and the Middle and Upper Jurassic reef-shoal carbonate and gypsum salts, forming an effective reservoir–caprock combination. The unique geological configuration forms optimal accumulation conditions for natural gas in the high-energy sedimentary-facies belt of the carbonate platform which controlled by the coal-bearing gas-generation center and large basement ancient uplift area. Large natural gas fields are mainly distributed in the presalt Jurassic carbonate rocks, driven by high-quality hydrocarbon-generation centers, ancient uplift backgrounds, and ultrathick gypsum-salt rocks. While large gas fields have been discovered in large structural traps at the center of the depressions, exploration potential is still remains in the vast area with a burial depth exceeding 4500 m. These make the basin a key area for further exploration. The Amu Darya Right Bank Block located in the northeast of the basin, which has seen 15 years of rapid and efficient exploration and development by PetroChina, has discovered three gas field groups, each contains 2 billion m3 of gas: the western intraplatform shoal, central gently sloping reef beach, and Eastern thrust structure, fracture-cave-type gas field groups. PetroChina has achieved a production capacity of 14 billion cubic meters. In response to the geological and developmental characteristics of the three gas field groups, tailored development strategies have been formulated. The strategies are based on the integrated concept of geological and developmental engineering. Optimization efforts have been made in well pattern deployment, including highly deviated wells, as well as the design of gas field pressurization engineering. In addition, comprehensive evaluations have been conducted, taking the stable production period, water-avoidance distance, and investment considerations into account. The efforts aim to support the project of transforming the Amu Darya River into a model for the efficient development of the “Belt and Road” energy cooperation project.

TRANSFORMATION OF THE AMUDARYA RIVER BASIN IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

The article assesses the impact of climate change on the water resources of the Amudarya River basin. The Amudarya River is fed by thawed snow and glacial waters. Glaciers have a significant role in the water supply of agriculture, as well as hydropower. Due to the intensive melting of glaciers in the short term, the flow of some rivers will increase. However, in the long term, the runoff will decrease, and some glaciers may disappear altogether. An important task of this study was to take into account the work of researchers working on environmental problems in the Amudarya basin. Since the ecology of the transboundary Amudarya River is in the sphere of national interests of several countries: Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, certain conditions for cross-border cooperation are being formed. The main problem of cooperation is unstable river regimes, which require continuous planning and negotiations on the allocation of resources, and which are exacerbated by climate change. The main consequences of the influence of climate change on the formation of water resources and water use in the Amudarya River basin are highlighted.

Types and Distribution Characteristics of Callovian-Oxfordian Reservoir on the Right Bank of Amu Darya River in Turkmenistan

Given the characteristics of significant or enormous resources, a wide range, many reservoir types, and challenging exploration on the right bank of the Amu Darya River, we systematically studied the characteristics of its reservoirs. Based on the core description, thin sections in combination with logging and seismic facies characteristics as well as regional tectonic-sedimentary background, the Callovian-Oxfordian platform and the gentle slope sedimentary system in the Amu Darya Basin of Turkmenistan were summarized. Sedimentary subfacies such as evaporation platform, restricted platform, open platform, and platform margin reef are developed in block A and its west. In contrast, the upper slope, lower slope, and basin sedimentary subfacies are developed in the east of block A. On this basis, the main reservoir types on the right bank of the Amu Darya River are summarized, namely, porous reservoir, vuggy reservoir, fractured-porous reservoir, and fractured-vuggy reservoir. After describing the characteristics of various reservoirs in detail, the main controlling factors, development patterns, and distribution rules of the development of different reservoirs are summarized. Specifically, based on the platform reef, the porous reservoir and vuggy reservoirs are developed mainly on the concealed palaeouplift in the study area and are greatly influenced by atmospheric freshwater leaching and buried dissolution. Based on the dominant sedimentary facies, the fractured-porous reservoirs are mainly developed in the central areas on the right bank of the Amu Darya River. In the later period, hydrothermal fluid and hydrocarbon-generating acidic fluid can dissolve the reservoir through strike-slip faults and their associated fractures. Diagenetic fluid enters the reef through faults and associated fractures to form dissolved reservoir bodies of a certain scale. The fractured-vuggy reservoirs are mainly controlled by faults and dissolution and are mainly developed near the eastern thrust fault on the right bank of the Amu Darya River, effectively guiding the direction for further exploration and development in this area.

Characteristics and genesis of reef-bank complexes in deep shelf facies: A case study of the Middle-Late Jurassic in the northern Amu Darya Basin, Central Asia

A large-rimmed carbonate platform was developed in the Amu Darya Basin during the Middle-Late Jurassic Callovian-Oxfordian period. What distinguishes it from typical carbonate platforms is that a series of reef-bank complexes had extensively developed in the deep shelf depositional zone of the basin. However, only a few studies have reported on the classification, characteristics, and genesis of these reef-bank complexes in relatively deep water, greatly limiting the development of deep-water carbonate sedimentology. To address this issue, the types and the genesis of reef-bank complexes in the deep shelf environment have been clarified based on the systematic petrography, seismic sedimentology, and geomorphology study of the Callovian-Oxfordian carbonate rocks in the northern Amu Darya Basin during the Middle-Late Jurassic period. The results find that the reef-bank complexes are widely distributed in the deep shelf environment in the study area with laminar, reticulated, and zonal distributions. The reef-bank complexes include barrier-bonding reef-bank complexes, lime-mud mounds (LMMs), and granular shoals (GSs). The deep shelf environment can be further divided into an inner shelf, shelf margin, and shelf slope. The inner shelf and shelf margin have a relatively shallow water body and a strong sedimentary hydrodynamic force, mainly developing reticulated reef-bank complexes and laminar GSs, whereas the shelf slope mostly develops zonal LMM deposits in strips. The scale of the reef-bank complexes is mainly controlled by basement paleogeomorphology and water energy. Relatively high-energy reef-bank complex bodies are developed on the seaward side of the paleouplift limb with relatively turbulent hydrodynamic conditions, whereas low-energy LMMs are mostly developed on the high position of paleouplift and landward side. The obtained findings can deepen our understanding of relatively deep-water carbonate sedimentation and enrich the carbonate sedimentation theory.

Streamflow Composition and the Contradicting Impacts of Anthropogenic Activities and Climatic Change on Streamflow in the Amu Darya Basin, Central Asia

Abstract Transboundary rivers are often the cause of water-related international disputes. One example is the Amu Darya River, with a catchment area of 470 000 km2, which passes through five countries and provides water resources for 89 million people. Intensified human activities and climate change in this region have altered hydrological processes and led to water-related conflicts and ecosystem degradation. Understanding streamflow composition and quantifying the change impacts on streamflow in the Amu Darya basin (ADB) are imperative to water resources management. Here, a degree-day glacier-melt scheme coupled offline with the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model (VIC-glacier), forced by daily precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature, and wind speed, is used to examine streamflow composition and changes during 1953–2019. Results show large differences in streamflow composition among the tributaries. There is a decrease in the snowmelt component (−260.8 m3 s−1) and rainfall component (−30.1 m3 s−1) at Kerki but an increase in the glacier melt component (160.0 m3 s−1) during drought years. In contrast, there is an increase in the snowmelt component (378.6 m3 s−1) and rainfall component (12.0 m3 s−1) but a decrease in the glacier melt component (−201.8 m3 s−1) during wet years. Using the VIC-glacier and climate elasticity approach, impacts of human activities and climate change on streamflow at Kerki and Kiziljar during 1956–2015 are quantified. Both methods agree and show a dominant role played by human activities in streamflow reduction, with contributions ranging 103.2%–122.1%; however, the contribution of climate change ranges from −22.1% to −3.2%.

Present-day state of technical water supply system “Kuyimozor” at auxiliary pump station

Pumping stations that receive water from the Amu Darya serve to supply high-turbidity water to agricultural crops in adverse weather conditions. This article provides an analysis of the technical water supply system of the Kuyimozor auxiliary pumping station in the Amu Darya Basin. The performance of all elements of the system was thoroughly studied and the turbidity of the water in front of the pumping station was analyzed. Various shortcomings have been identified in the system and conclusions have been drawn on these shortcomings.

Extreme Hydrometeorological Conditions and Changes in the Amu Darya River Basin in Central Asia

Abstract The Amu Darya contributed 70% of the flow to the Aral Sea in central Asia before the 1960s, when the Amu Darya streamflow to the Aral Sea started to dwindle. The severe environmental and socioeconomic disaster happened mainly due to intensified water abstraction with the backdrop of climate change. However, knowledge of up to the most recent extreme climate conditions and their changes, as well as their relations to streamflow in the basin, is still lacking. This study aims to understand extreme hydrometeorological conditions and their changes, as well as their relations in the past several decades, especially in the upper Amu Darya basin. The spatial patterns of the means of all extreme temperature indices followed the elevation gradient. The majority of the basin showed an increasing trend in extreme warm events but a decreasing trend in extreme cold events. The north of the upper basin had over 1000 mm annual precipitation, and the east had less than 300 mm annual precipitation. Overall, the upper Amu Darya basin underwent a wetting and warming annual trend. Annual streamflow in the upper subbasins was less than 750 m3 s−1, but together they produced over 1500 m3 s−1 flow in the middle reach and basin outlet. Streamflow change varied among subbasins. Correlations between climatic factors and streamflow at annual time steps were weak but distinct at monthly time steps with lagged effects. In highland subbasins with high coverage of glaciers and snow, temperature minima and maxima impacts were opposite and overwhelmed precipitation, whereas in lowland subbasins, precipitation was more important.

Impact Assessment of climate change on water resources of the Amu Darya River basin

Water consumption and water use have been continuously increasing, and the impact of economic activities on the hydrological regime of water flow, especially in irrigation, population and industry, has increased significantly. In particular, it is significantly increasing in the countries of Central Asia, including the Republic of Uzbekistan. Today's global problem is the severity, scale and unusualness of anthropogenic climate change, especially in developing countries, creates the need for action with an urgent scientific approach. Undoubtedly, the assessment of the observed climate change and the current state of water resources will require many years of in-depth scientific research. One of the factors limiting the development of the countries of the Amu Darya basin is the lack of water resources. The world is experiencing intensive climate warming, which leads to the melting of glaciers, which are the main sources of fresh water for the river basins that make up the water resources of the countries of Central Asia. The article gives an assessment of regional and local climate change and gives recommendations for reducing water shortages in the countries of the province

LOCATION OF ANCIENT RIGHT BANK SETTLEMENTS OF KHOREZM

The article discusses the location of the settlements of the Khorezm Oasis on the right bank of antiquity, including the geographical location, location and stages of development of settlements, cities and fortresses in the Lower Amudarya basin from the end of the 5th century BC to the 4th century AD.

Effects of Vegetation Change on Soil Erosion by Water in Major Basins, Central Asia

The uncertainties in soil erosion (SE) are further intensified by various factors, such as global warming, regional warming and humidification, and vegetation cover changes. Moreover, quantitative evaluations of SE in major basins of Central Asia (CA) under changing environments have rarely been conducted. This study conducted quantitative evaluation of SE in four major basins (Syr Darya Basin (SDB), Amu Darya Basin (ADB), Ili River Basin (IRB) and Tarim River Basin (TRB) using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and analyzed the main driving factors. SE quantities in the basins presented relatively consistent upward fluctuating trends from 1982 to 2017. Vegetation cover variation fluctuated significantly from 1982 to 2017. Specifically, vegetation cover decreased continuously in SDB, ADB, and IRB, but increased gradually in TRB. Pixels with positive spatial variation of vegetation mainly occurred around lakes and oases near rivers. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) showed higher correlation with precipitation (80.5%) than with temperature (48.3%). During the study period, the area of arable land (AL) exhibited the largest change among all land use types in CA. Under long-term human activities, the proportion of NDVI of other land types converting to AL was the highest. In the structural equation model (SEM), precipitation, temperature, Shannon Diversity Index (SHDI), and NDVI strongly influenced SE. Overall, the major basins in CA were jointly affected by climate, human activities, and vegetation. Specifically, climatic factors exerted the strongest influence, followed by SHDI (human activities). SE was found to be relatively serious in ADB, SDB, and IRB, with SE in SDB even approaching that in the Loess Plateau. Under the background of global changes, appropriate water and land resource management and optimization configurations should be implemented in CA with reference to TRB in order to relieve local SE problems.

Baseline determination, pollution source and ecological risk of heavy metals in surface sediments of the Amu Darya Basin, Central Asia

Baseline determination, pollution source and ecological risk of heavy metals in surface sediments of the Amu Darya Basin, Central Asia

Origin and Characteristics of the Crude Oils and Condensates in the Callovian-Oxfordian Carbonate Reservoirs of the Amu Darya Right Bank Block, Turkmenistan

Abstract The Amu Darya Right Bank Block is located northeast of the Amu Darya basin, a large petroliferous sedimentary basin, with abundant natural gas resources in carbonate rocks under the ultra-thick gypsum-salt layer. Oil fields producing crude oils have recently been found around large gas fields. Unraveling the origins of the crude oils is crucial for effective petroleum exploration and exploitation. The origin of gas condensates and crude oils was unraveled through the use of comprehensively analytical and interpretative geochemical approaches. Based on oil-source correlation, the reservoir forming process has been restored. The bulk geochemical parameters of the local source rocks of the ADRBB indicated that the local sources have hydrocarbon generation and accumulation potential. The middle-lower Jurassic coal-bearing mudstone is gas prone, while the mudstone of the Callovian-Oxfordian gap layer is oil prone, and the organic matter type of Callovian-Oxfordian carbonate rocks is the mixed type between the two previous source rocks. The interpretation schemes for compositions of n-alkanes, pristane and phytane, C27–C28–C29 sterane distributions, C19+C20–C21–C23 tricyclic terpane distributions, extended tricyclic terpane ratio, and δ13C indicated that crude oil is likely from marine organic matter, while condensates mainly originate from terrestrial organic matter. However, from the perspective of the 18α-trisnorneohopane/17α-trisnorhopane and isomerization ratio of C29 sterane, condensates are too mature to have originated in the local source rocks of the ADRBB, whose maturity is well comparable with that of crude oils. The geochemical, geologic, and tectonic evolutions collectively indicate that the crude oils were most likely generated and migrated from the relatively shallow, lowly mature gap layer and Callovian-Oxfordian carbonate rocks of the ADRBB, while the condensates mostly originated from the relatively deep and highly mature middle-lower coal-bearing mudstone and Callovian-Oxfordian carbonate rocks in the Murgab depression in the southeast of the basin. Basement faults are the key factors affecting the types of oil and gas reservoirs. During the periods of oil and gas migration, traps with basement faults mainly captured natural gas and condensates and traps without basement faults were enriched with crude oils generated from local source rocks.

Runoff Regime, Change, and Attribution in the Upper Syr Darya and Amu Darya, Central Asia

Abstract The upper Syr Darya (USD) and Amu Darya (UAD) basins are the two biggest flow formation zones in central Asia and the only water supply sources for the Aral Sea. Upstream snow and ice reserves of those two basins, important in sustaining seasonal water availability, are highly sensitive and prone to climate change, but their importance and changes are still uncertain and poorly understood due to data scarcity, inaccessibility, harsh climate, and even geopolitics. Here, an improved forcing dataset of precipitation and temperature was developed and used to drive a physically based hydrological model, which was thoroughly calibrated and validated to quantify the contributions of different runoff components to total flow and the controlling factors for total runoff variations for 1961–2016. Our analysis reveals divergent flow regimes exist across the USD and UAD and an ongoing transition from nival–pluvial toward a volatile pluvial regime along with rising temperatures. Annual total runoff has weakly increased from 1961 to 2016 for the entire USD and UAD, while the subbasins displayed divergent flow changes. Spring runoff significantly increased in all the USD and UAD basins primarily due to increased rainfall and early snow melting, tending to shift the peak flow from June–July to April–May. In contrast, distinct runoff changes were presented in the summer months among the basins primarily due to the trade-off between the increase in rainfall and the decrease in snowmelt and glacier runoff. These findings are expected to provide essential information for policymakers to adopt strategies and leave us better poised to project future runoff changes in ongoing climate change.

Depositional and Diagenetic Controls on Reservoir Quality of Callovian-Oxfordian Stage on the Right Bank of Amu Darya

Based on the detailed analysis of sedimentology, diagenesis, and petrophysics, this study characterized the Middle-Lower Jurassic Callovian-Oxfordian carbonate reservoirs of 68 key wells in the Amu Darya Basin and assessed the controlling factors on the quality of the target intervals. We identified 15 types of sedimentary facies developed in seven sedimentary environments using sedimentary facies analysis, such as evaporative platform, restricted platform, open platform, platform margin, platform fore-edge upslope, platform fore-edge downslope, and basin facies. The target intervals went through multiple diagenetic stages, including the syndiagenetic stage, early diagenetic stage, and middle diagenetic stage, all of which had a significant impact on the reservoir quality. Main diagenetic processes include dissolution and fracturing which improve the reservoir quality as well as cementation, compaction, and pressure solution that reduce the reservoir quality. By analyzing the reservoir quality, we identified nine fluid flow units and five types of reservoir facies. Among them, the dissolved grain-dominated reservoir facies is of the highest quality and is the best storage and flow body, while the microporous mud-dominated reservoir facies of platform fore-edge downslope and open marine facies is of the lowest quality and could not become the flow unit unless it was developed by fracturing.