American National Election Studies Research Articles

Altruistic concern: how racial ideologies explain racial differences in concerns for Black victims of crime and the police

We explore how concerned Americans are about the risk of violence faced by Black Americans. Using a 2022 American National Election Studies (ANES) survey, we compare concern for Black Americans as the victims of crime versus the police. We find White Americans to be the least concerned about both kinds of victimization, Black Americans the most concerned, and Latinx Americans in between. Interestingly, White Americans expressed significantly less concern about Black Americans being victimized by the police than by civilians. People’s racial ideologies play the largest role in explaining the average differences in concern between people with different racial identifications.

Political Alienation and the Trump Vote in the 2016 and 2020 US Presidential Elections

Abstract Following Donald Trump’s surprising victory in the 2016 US presidential election, some popular and scholarly sources suggested that Trump’s candidacy may have been bolstered, in part, by the mobilization of “politically alienated” voters. This argument is puzzling, however, as certain forms of political alienation are often negatively related to political participation, making it unclear whether or how alienation may have been related to turnout and to support for Trump at the ballot box. I shed light on this puzzle using data from the American National Election Studies, which contain measures of two dimensions of political alienation: inefficacy and cynicism. With these data I examine how either dimension relates to turnout and to vote choice in 2016 and in 2020. Cynicism emerges as a positive predictor of both turnout and the Trump vote in 2016, but not in 2020. Inefficacy, however, does not positively predict turnout or the Trump vote in either election. I offer a potential explanation for the diminished relationship between cynicism and mobilization in the 2020 elections by applying a Structural Topic Model to open-ended survey responses about Trump, which reveals a substantial decrease in the salience of Trump’s “political outsider” qualities during his reelection bid.

Social Mobility through Immigrant Resentment: Explaining Latinx Support for Restrictive Immigration Policies and Anti-immigrant Candidates

Abstract Various polls suggest that Donald Trump has enjoyed the support of a sizable minority of the Latinx electorate despite his racially offensive rhetoric and support for some of the most restrictive immigration policies in recent memory. Building on Social Identity Theory and Self-Categorization Theory, we contend that some Latinxs harbor negative stereotypes about immigrants, blame them for the status devaluation of the Latinx community, and cognitively distinguish themselves from Latinx immigrants. Rather than viewing anti-immigrant policies, rhetoric, and politicians as a direct status threat, those exhibiting this “Latinx Immigrant Resentment (LIR)” may regard them as a means to enhance the status and interests of “prototypical” Latinxs by signaling their distinction from “atypical” Latinxs. To evaluate this theory, we use the 2020 American National Election Study (ANES) and 2016 Collaborative MultiRacial Post-Election Survey (CMPS) as a proof-of-concept to first confirm that negative immigrant stereotypes and cognitive intragroup distinctions are associated with increased support for Donald Trump and restrictive immigration policies. We then introduce a more refined measure of LIR by fielding online surveys of US Latinxs administered through Lucid in 2020–2021 (N = 1,164) and 2021/22 (N = 1,017). We demonstrate the validity of this measure and its predictive power for attitudes toward Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and restrictive immigration policies after accounting for a range of rival explanations.

Political efficacy and the perceived influence of urban and rural residents

AbstractWhile political scientists have long studied citizens' political efficacy as an important indicator of attitudes toward government, less attention has been devoted to the efficacy of rural or urban residents, which is important given the intensifying rural–urban divide in American society. This study fills this gap by analyzing the 2020 American National Election Studies. Using ordered logistic regression, this study finds that (1) city residents tend to believe that small towns and rural areas have too much influence on government; (2) residents of small towns and rural areas demonstrate lower levels of external efficacy than city residents; and (3) people who believe that small towns and rural areas have too much influence tend to demonstrate high external and internal efficacies, a tendency that is clearer in cities than in other community types. These findings reflect mutual in‐group bias and place‐based resentment between rural and urban residents in American society.Related ArticlesPeterson, Holly L., Mark K. McBeth, and Michael D. Jones. 2020. “Policy Process Theory for Rural Studies: Navigating Context and Generalization in Rural Policy.” Politics & Policy 48(4): 576–617. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12366.Shortall, Sally, and Margaret Alston. 2016. “To Rural Proof or Not to Rural Proof: A Comparative Analysis.” Politics & Policy 44(1): 35–55. https://doi‐org.libproxy.usouthal.edu/10.1111/polp.12144.Smith‐Walter, Aaron, Holly L. Peterson, Michael D. Jones, and Ashley Nicole Reynolds Marshall. 2016. “Gun Stories: How Evidence Shapes Firearm Policy in the United States.” Politics & Policy 44(6): 1053–88. https://doi‐org.libproxy.usouthal.edu/10.1111/polp.12187.

Growing Up in a Polarized Party System: Ideological Divergence and Partisan Sorting Across Generations

American political elites have increasingly polarized over the past decades, which has inspired much research into mass polarization. We study whether there is a generational component to mass polarization by disentangling period, age, and cohort differences while distinguishing two forms of mass polarization: partisan sorting and ideological divergence. Drawing from General Social Survey and American National Election Studies data, we find that partisan sorting has increased across long-standing and emerging issues, while ideological divergence has not. Contrary to expectations, over-time increases in sorting are clearly driven by changes within generations rather than by generational replacement. On several issues, newer generations turn out to be less sorted than those they replace. This tentatively suggests that, partially as a consequence of demographic changes, generational replacement will gradually lead to less polarization in American public opinion as it converges toward more liberal positions.

Racial Bias and U.S. Presidential Candidate Preference

Abstract Much research has suggested that Republican candidates in U.S. presidential elections benefit from voter bias against non-White groups. The present study supplements this research by including in the analysis bias against Whites. Estimates from the American National Election Studies 2020 Time Series Study indicated that a nontrivial percentage of the U.S. population has a bias that disfavors Whites, with this bias more prevalent among Democrats than Republicans. Further analyses estimated the extent to which the type of voter racial bias that favors Republican presidential candidates offsets the type of voter racial bias that favors Democratic presidential candidates. Estimates for the 2020 U.S. presidential election indicated that the two-party vote share for Donald Trump was higher among voters who rated Whites, Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians/Asian-Americans equal to each other on 0-to-100 feeling thermometers than among the full population of two-party voters, suggesting that Donald Trump was disadvantaged on net by the electorate including racially biased voters. These results call into question research that has used an unrepresentative set of racial attitudes to suggest that, in recent U.S. presidential elections, only Republican candidates have benefitted from racial bias among the electorate.

Education, racial identity, and perceptions of immigration and law enforcement in the United States

This research investigates the relationship between education, racial identity, political ideology, and socioeconomic factors in shaping American immigrants' attitudes toward immigration policies and perceptions of law enforcement. Analyzing data from the 2020 American National Election Studies (ANES) survey through multiple linear regression models, the study reveals significant influences of perceived police brutality and racial bias on public trust in law enforcement, with political ideology being a notable determinant in forming opinions on both immigration and policing. The findings emphasize the adverse impact of aggressive policing and racial profiling on immigrants' trust in law enforcement, highlighting the linkage between education and race in modulating perceptions of immigration policies. The results illustrate several ways socio demographic factors influence views on these pivotal issues and underscore the critical need for policy approaches that are mindful of the diversity of experiences and attitudes within immigrant communities. By unraveling the layered influences on immigrants' perceptions of immigration and policing, this research contributes valuable insights towards developing more informed, inclusive, and empathetic policy frameworks, reflecting the complex nature of immigration and law enforcement issues in a multifaceted societal context.

Testing the Robustness of the ANES Feeling Thermometer Indicators of Affective Polarization

Affective polarization (AP)—the tendency of political partisans to view their opponents as a stigmatized “out group”—is now a major field of research. Relevant evidence in the United States derives primarily from a single source, the American National Election Studies (ANES) feeling thermometer time series. We investigate whether the design of the ANES produces overestimates of AP. We consider four mechanisms: overrepresentation of strong partisans, selection bias conditional on strong identification, priming effects of partisan content, and survey mode variation. Our analysis uses the first-ever collaboration between ANES and the General Social Survey and a novel experiment that manipulates the amount of political content in surveys. Our tests show that variation in survey mode has caused an artificial increase in the mixed-mode ANES time series, but the general increase in out-party animus is nonetheless real and not merely an artifact of selection bias or priming effects.

Bridging prediction and theory: Introducing the Bayesian Partially-Protected Lasso

This work examines the application of regularization methods in political science, both theoretically and practically. The focus of the study is on the use of regularization to specify models for predicting political outcomes. Specifically, what is the predictive price for protecting theoretically important variables from shrinkage? While many machine learning applications prioritize maximizing predictive accuracy, political science relies on reliable prior findings as a theoretical foundation. The literature shows that regularization methods can shrink crucial theoretically-driven variables to insignificance. To address this, we propose a protected Lasso approach in a Bayesian framework that safeguards these variables, balancing theoretical robustness and predictive power. Our analyses, applied to the American National Election Study, demonstrates the effectiveness of this approach.

Party Affiliation in the Southern Electorate

This article chronicles and analyzes the changing state of party affiliation in the American South from the 1990s to the present. Party identification (PID) is examined with data from three survey sources: the American National Election Study (ANES), Cooperative Election Study (CES), and Exit Polls (national and state-level). Emphasis is placed on the changing PID patterns of white, Black, and Hispanic voters South-wide and in individual states. The findings strongly suggest that the current position of Republican electoral dominance will persist for some time to come, though there are multiple reasons why, in certain parts of the South, Democratic affiliation will likely increase.

The Democratic Majority and the 2016 American Presidential Election: Feminist Political Behavior Across Multiple Axes of Identity

Scholarship on women voters using an intersectional lens has shown feminists and women of color within the Democratic Party to be a powerful force in electoral politics—specifically, Black and Latina women—are the most reliable voters. Combined, they represent the majority of women voters in the Democratic Party, and they have shown themselves to be a sizeable voting bloc in the last two American presidential election cycles. Using data from the 2016 American National Election Studies (ANES), we demonstrate important differences in support for the Democratic candidate (Hillary Clinton) between feminists and women of color—Black and Latina—underscoring the need to study gender, race, and ethnicity simultaneously (versus independently) when they are co-constitutive identity categories. By examining women and the groups the Clinton campaign appealed most to—feminists, Black, and Latina women—we add to the scholarship in political science that followed this unique election and demonstrate the importance of feminist identity for vote choice and various modes of political behavior for women voters. Knowing and understanding how women respond through affect and how this affect can result in political behaviors will help determine what it takes for future historic first candidates to emerge successful.

Health Behavior Model (HBM) and American’s perceived health risks of the COVID-19 vaccine

ABSTRACT We assessed the perceived risks of COVID vaccines using a Health Belief Model (HBM) among the American public during the vaccination roll-out in the USA. We employed a retrospective study of 1,149 adults from the 2020 American National Election Studies surveys to assess the public’s belief about the COVID-19 vaccine during the pandemic. The logistic regression analysis found several predictors of perceived health risks of the COVID vaccine. For urban/suburban residents, having higher education, being older, being White, and having higher income emerged as protective factors. People with these characteristics are less likely to perceive the COVID vaccine as risky. Also, higher use of Twitter emerged as a protective factor for residents from urban/suburban regions. However, residents from rural/small towns who use Facebook often are more likely to perceive the COVID vaccine as risky. Perceived risks of vaccination are high among Facebook users of residents from rural/small towns and low among Twitter users among residents from urban/suburban areas. The authors identified several protective factors: being educated, older, economically well-off, and White. The authors propose interventions to reduce perceived risks and vaccine hesitancy among vulnerable populations.

Populist Hyperpartisans?: The Interaction Between Partisan Media Exposure and Populism in the 2020 US Presidential Election

ABSTRACT Aspects of our political world brought to the forefront in recent years include the impact of declining media trust and a surge of populist politicians around the globe. Highlighting those aspects, this study utilizes representative data from the American National Election Studies (ANES) collected during the 2020 US Presidential Election. We examine the relationship between use of different media (mainstream liberal, mainstream conservative, and hyper-conservative) and media trust as well as the moderating role of populist beliefs. Results found that hyper-conservative media use and anti-elitist populist beliefs are negatively associated with media trust while liberal media use is positively associated with media trust; mainstream conservative media use is unrelated to media trust when controlling for other media types and populist beliefs. This lack of a main effect for conservative media is clarified by examining the interaction with anti-elitist populism, which shows increased use of conservative media for individuals with low levels of populist beliefs is associated with increased media trust while the opposite is true for those high in populist beliefs.

ARE CATHOLICS UNIQUELY CROSS-PRESSURED? POLICY BELIEFS AND VOTING BEHAVIOR BY RELIGIOUS TRADITION IN RECENT U.S. ELECTIONS

The Catholic Church’s pro-life, pro-social justice policy agenda takes the sides of both major US political parties. This potentially cross-pressures Catholic voters’ choice between those parties, but could alternatively legitimate a Catholic voter’s personal partisan preference. This paper examines whether Catholic voters who share the Church’s core policy positions are more or less likely than comparably cross-pressured non-Catholic voters to exhibit political behaviors associated with cross-pressures: avoiding identification with a major party, avoiding voting or a major-party vote choice, defecting from one’s party in voting, and selectively misperceiving candidate issue positions. Analyzing data from the 2016-2018 Cooperative Congressional Election Studies and the 1992-2016 American National Election Studies, I find little evidence that Catholics are uniquely, strongly cross-pressured. If anything, cross-pressured (and other) Catholics are more likely than comparable non-Catholics–even those in faith traditions that are more clearly aligned with a single party–to embrace partisan politics. In some cases, partisan differences between Catholics in their responsiveness to cross-pressures exceed differences between Catholics and non-Catholics.

Toeing the Party Line: The Asymmetric Influence of Feminism on Partisans' Participation

Abstract What is the relationship between feminism and political participation? How does partisanship moderate this relationship? Prior research shows that gender attitudes, particularly sexism, rather than gender identity per se, increasingly shape vote choice and participation in US elections. However, the role played by feminism in voter behaviour remains scarcely understood. As feminist identification crosses partisanship, we argue that its impact on engagement with campaigns and turnout depends on party ID. Therefore, we expect feminist identity and how it intersects with either aligned or conflicting partisan identity to impact partisans' participation asymmetrically. Using data from the 2016 and 2020 American National Election Studies, our results support these expectations. Holding the mutually reinforcing identities of Democrat and feminist has a significant mobilizing impact, while holding the cross-cutting identities of Republican and feminist tends to lead to a decline in political participation.

Retributive Attitudes and Perceptions of Police Use of Excessive Force

Public opinions of police use of force vary widely. Previous studies, however, have framed their examinations around the factors that influence support of police use of force in general, as compared to a focus on excessive force. This study utilized linear regression to examine the relationship between perceptions of police use of excessive force and retributive attitudes. The study employed a sample of 5,527 respondents from the American National Election Studies (ANES) 2020 Time Series Survey. Findings indicated that respondents’ perceptions of the frequency of police use of excessive force depend on their retributive attitudes. The more retributive one’s attitude, the less often they perceived the police to use too much force. Similarly, the more conservative one’s political ideology, the less frequently they perceived police used excessive force. Perceptions of police excessive force also vary across demographics. KEYWORDS: Retributiveness; Death Penalty; Police Use of Force; Police Excessive Force

Crowded Out: The Effects of Concurrent Elections on Political Engagement, Candidate Evaluation, and Campaign Learning in the United States

ABSTRACT Holding multiple elections simultaneously, also known as concurrent elections, is well known to benefit electoral systems by increasing the rate of voter turnout. Essentially, the public becomes more willing to participate in voting because they can vote for more offices, and more prominent offices, at once and thus have a greater influence upon the functioning of government in a more efficient manner. However, very little is known about what happens with the electorate outside of the simple increase in voting. Just because citizens choose to vote, it does not mean that they actually pay attention to all the campaigns or feel that their participation is valuable. Using 20 years of American National Election Study survey data, and focusing primarily on the relatively low-salience House of Representatives, this paper examines the psychological effects of concurrent elections in the United States. It concludes that, while concurrent elections do boost turnout, lower-salience candidates receive less attention during concurrent elections, leading the public to rate them more negatively and know less about them. Higher-salience office candidates avoid these negative consequences. Thus there is a trade-off with concurrent elections – more people tend to vote when multiple offices are contested simultaneously but those voters also tend to focus on the higher offices and ignore the bottom of the ballot.

Public Television for Liberals? The Demographic and Behavioral Characteristics of The PBS Newshour Viewers

Non-academic sources suggest that PBS, an American public broadcast service, mostly serves liberals. However, there is little scholarly evidence on the demographic and behavioral characteristics of those who get news about government and politics from PBS. Using the data from the American National Election Study’s 2020 Time Series (N=8,280), this research examines how PBS viewership is related to party identification, ideology, education, sex, race, political knowledge, religion, income and age. It also explores how PBS viewers are different from MSNBC, CNN, and Fox News viewers in their political attitudes, behaviors, and beliefs.

Not Bowling Alone: Revisiting Partisan Types and Participatory Behaviors Using the Communication Mediated Model

Drawing on the two-wave 2020 American National Election Studies (ANES) survey, this study revisits partisan types by categorizing individuals’ party identification and positions on party-divided issues. A Latent Class Analysis reveals six types of partisans, which were further clustered into three types: polarized partisans (i.e., polarized Democrats and polarized Republicans, 47.85%), incongruent partisans (i.e., conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans, 28.23%), and floating citizens (i.e., hesitant citizens and apathetic citizens, 23.92%) based on the partisan typology proposed in this study. Employing the O-S-R-O-R model, this study found that polarized partisans (O), who are the most politically active citizens, are more likely than incongruent partisans and floating citizens to seek pro-attitudinal news on multi-platforms (S), then to discuss politics (R), then to be politically knowledgeable (O), which finally leads to higher levels of political participation. The results highlight a worrisome tendency in US politics as participation is largely by biased polarized partisans. Nevertheless, incongruent partisans also have the potential to make contributions to both deliberative and participatory democracy because they are also politically active. Their discussion and participatory behaviors can be attributed to their mixed issue positions and counter-attitudinal news consumption on multi-platforms.

Examining the Effects of Perceptions of Voter Suppression and Voter Fraud on Support for Voter Identification Laws in the United States

Democracy is fundamentally grounded in the people's right to vote, but what happens when the same mechanisms meant to protect the electoral process become barriers? This study examined the relationship between perceptions of voter suppression and voter fraud and support for voter restrictions, such as requiring identification to vote. The study utilized data from the American National Election Studies 2020 Times Series Study, examining a sample of 5,264 voters. Results revealed that voter support for voter ID laws depends on their perceptions of voter integrity and suppression. The more confidence voters have in the integrity of elections and the more they believe in voter suppression, the less likely they are to support voter identification requirements. Other demographic factors are considered.