American Elections Research Articles

An apolitical risk assessment of the 2024 US elections: The threat of widespread riots and significant business disruption

Civil disorder has always plagued humanity, with violence being triggered by real or perceived grievances, rumours and speculation, and internal or external agitators. The risk to people, communities, businesses and the rule of law is not isolated to a particular country or society. The propensity for violence and how it is incited is, however, an evolving threat with the advent of the ‘modern riot’. The causes of violence centre on economic and social injustice, sports- and event-related riots, a reaction to police or security forces and political unrest. As the US nears the contentious 2024 elections, the failing trust in the three branches of government combined with external global tensions and conflict, threats from domestic extremist groups, a rising acceptance of violence as a means of settling political disagreements, hostile nation actors and international terror groups that exploit societal instability create fertile conditions for widespread violence. Exacerbating these factors are the risks from artificial intelligence (AI) deepfake, rapid mass communications, the citizen journalist, prominent influencers amplifying grievances and inflammatory media reporting. This convergence of exacerbators and accelerants for political discord offers the potential for serious security risks and significant business disruption.

Health aspects of the presidential election in the United States.

The prospect of a Biden-Trump rematch had raised concerns. The argument of Trump on the older age of Biden led to a boomerang effect when the latter was replaced by the much younger Kamala Harris whose mixed African and Asian ancestry should lead to her support on international issues. Swing voters might be attracted by her potential as the first female president. Assertive on the politically controversial issue of abortion, Kamala Harris already spent a substantial part of her vice-presidency on women issues. Her promotion of sexual and reproductive rights during the presidential campaign augurs well for restoring those priorities on the American political agenda.

Health aspects of the presidential election in the United States

Health aspects of the presidential election in the United States

Russia and the challenges of global leadership

Are we, in 2024, navigating a world without American leadership or a world with contested leadership? Regardless of the winner in the US elections this autumn, contested leadership for influence in international affairs is sure to continue. If the United States fails to lead, little will stand in the way of Putin's vision of a new multipolar world where Russia, as an exceptional power pursues the domination of a natural sphere of geographic influence that extends beyond Ukraine, well into Europe.

Neuropsychology and Politics Collide in the 2024 US Presdiential Election: Pitfalls of attacks on age, language, and memory.

Public perception of dementia has emerged as a key factor in the 2024 United States presidential election. The first televised presidential debate (27 June 2024) evoked a groundswell of concern about the neuropsychological health and political viability of President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. A rapid erosion of public support ensued, culminating in the collapse of the reelection campaign the following month. Political attacks on the cognitive fitness of world leaders create dissonance for clinical neuroscientists. We are ethically prohibited from remotely diagnosing public figures. Yet, we are also citizens with the right to feel and express personal concerns. In this commentary, I will address an often-uneasy relationship between politics and neuropsychology with a focus on the history and rationale for ethical guidelines such as the Goldwater Rule. I will also discuss lessons learned from recent events in the 2024 US election cycle about neurological health literacy (e.g. How is dementia diagnosed?) and broader impacts of age-based political attacks on global public health initiatives that target stigma reduction and improved early detection of dementia.

History Repeats—The Election Battle for Medicaid in 2024

This Viewpoint explores partisan attitudes toward Medicaid in the 2024 US election and the implications for access to care and health equity if a Republican proposal that includes work requirements and block grants moves forward.

Face-work in North American Presidential Debates: A Corpus-based Multi-theoretical Approach

As inherently confrontational contexts, North American presidential debates compel politicians to engage in image restoration efforts when targeted by a face-threatening act. Since the first televised debates in 1960, presidential campaigns have become increasingly mediatized and the need to defend against face-damage has increased, for there is still a need to uphold a favorable presidential image despite the prominence of impoliteness in these events. Although a longstanding tradition, there is still no framework for the combined analysis of threatening and defensive face-work in presidential debates. This paper presents a corpus-based three-fold analysis blending qualitative, quantitative and statistical methodologies to observe the evolution of facework in this context, focusing on impoliteness and image restoration manifestations. The selected corpus comprises the presidential debates of seven North American elections —one per decade—, providing an overview of the evolution of both phenomena. This methodology also allows insight into the frequency of specific strategies. The analysis adopts a multi-theoretical approach to demonstrate the effectiveness of integrating Impoliteness theory (Culpeper, 1996) and Image restoration theory (Benoit and Wells, 1996) to create a comprehensive new approach to the study of face-work in presidential debates. Supported by results from Pearson’s Chi-square test, the combination of these theories was shown to be possible. The recurrence of attack-defense pairings integrating strategies from both theories also pointed to their necessary combination. While the recent incorporation of a female presidential candidate hinted at the potential gender variation of face-work in the debates, further data is needed to obtain conclusive results.

January 6th: An exploration of racial introjection and social construction

ABSTRACT This paper illustrates how racial dynamics emerge through clinical and professional enactments and contribute to the social construction of race in psychoanalytic settings. The author defines societal racial introjects as introjects with a racial valance stemming from societal objects or entities. Societal racial introjects impinge on intrapsychic processes and shape racial expression in the self for both patient and analyst. The intersection of societal introjection and the social construction of race is demonstrated through an analysis of transference and countertransference phenomena between patient and analyst following the 2016 United States Election.

The Size and Structure of the Gender Gap in Economic Evaluations

Gender gaps in partisanship, vote choice, and opinion are well documented in the American electorate. In 2016, men’s and women’s subjective economic evaluations—of their own circumstances and the broader economy—also diverged considerably. We investigate the size, structure, and explanations of this gap. Drawing on cross-sectional and panel data, we show that the gap widened to historic levels following Trump’s election, driven by increased optimism among white men and decline among women of color. Though partisan and objective economic differences across race-gendered groups contribute, they do not fully explain the widening divide. We hypothesize that Trump’s election altered Americans’ understanding of the socioeconomic hierarchy, producing new divides in subjective status perceptions. Gendered and racialized divides in subjective perceptions combined with partisanship and economic circumstances to re-open the gender gap in economic attitudes.

Restoring Trust in US Elections through Effective Election Administrator Messaging

Abstract During the 2020 election cycle, numerous national, state, and local organizations mounted campaigns designed to counter mis- and disinformation about election activities and to foster public trust in election processes. Local and state election offices focused intently on creating and disseminating accurate messages about when, where, and how to vote. Despite these efforts, trust in the 2020 election remained confoundingly low. This research analyzes this disconnect between messages from election offices and public trust by testing messages collected from election officials around the country using focus groups and a national panel survey experiment. We find that in focus groups, neutral messages that evoke local connections tested better than other types of messages. Further, messenger characteristics influenced whether participants trusted the messages. Using messages based on these findings, we fielded a survey experiment during the 2022 midterm election cycle, finding that the interaction between baseline trust, racial identification, and identification with the messenger moves trust.

Why do firms list their shares in the US? The role of political uncertainty

PurposeThis paper investigates the effect of political uncertainty on the decision to cross-list in the United States (US).Design/methodology/approachTo reach our paper aim, we use a sample of 589 non-US firms cross-listed in the US for the period from 2000 to 2019. We perform logit regression and use several political uncertainty proxies, including US election presidential years, political voting margin and the political uncertainty index from Baker et al. (2002), as a continuous measure of general political condition (Francis et al., 2021).FindingsWe find the following results. Non-US firms are less likely to cross-list their shares when US political uncertainty is high. We also find that the decision to cross-list is driven by price informativeness as a channel that can explain the role of political uncertainty. Our results are robust to the endogeneity concern. In addition, we find that political administration (Democrats vs Republicans) significantly affects the decision to cross-list. More particularly, we show that firms are more likely to cross-list their shares in the US when Democrats win the elections. Moreover, we find that cross-listed firms exhibit lower valuation compared to their non-cross-listed peers when US political uncertainty is high.Originality/valueUsing a unified framework of non-US firms cross-listed in the US, this paper contributes to different strands of the literature. Our first main contribution adds to the literature on cross-listing by providing, in our knowledge, the first evidence regarding the relation between cross-listing and political uncertainty. We add to the existing literature by showing that US political uncertainty significantly determines the decision to cross-list and value creation for cross-listed firms. Whether and how managers alter their strategic decision behavior in such settings is less clear. Hence, our paper contributes to the literature by documenting how political uncertainty impacts cross-listing decision and shapes management guidance decisions. Second, this study joins a growing body of literature that examines the real impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on economic outcomes. We provide empirical evidence suggesting that cross-listed firms exhibit lower valuation during period of high political uncertainty due to decreased price informativeness.

Slant, Extremity, and Diversity: How the Shape of News Use Explains Electoral Judgments and Confidence

Abstract The 2020 election and its aftermath present an opportunity to understand how audiences’ changing news consumption patterns within an expanded, digitized, and polarized media environment shape electoral judgments. This paper introduces measures that capture individuals’ partisan slant, partisan extremity, and overall diversity of news media use to understand how people interact with the contemporary news ecology. The measures combine self-reported media use with the partisan slant of news outlets along the ideological spectrum. Using these measures, we analyze a two-wave panel survey conducted before and after the 2020 US election to investigate how slant, diversity, and extremity are related to post-election beliefs, including public confidence in the election and the acceptance of fraud claims. Our findings show that Republicans have more insulated news use behaviors in terms of slant and diversity. The analysis also reveals that the slant of people’s news use is associated with post-election fraud beliefs, with right-wing news consumers more likely to believe such claims. However, a diverse news consumption style can moderate misinformation beliefs. Panel analysis points to the role of extreme-right news use in decreasing confidence in the legitimacy of the election.

Distrusting the Process: Electoral Trust, Operational Ideology, and Nonvoting Political Participation in the 2020 American Electorate.

This article explores the relationships between electoral trust, operational ideology, and nonvoting political participation (NVP) during the 2020 US presidential election cycle. We hypothesize that: (1) more liberal operational ideology is associated with more NVP, (2) less electoral trust is associated with more NVP, and (3) operational ideology moderates the negative relationship between electoral trust and NVP. Using data from the 2020 American National Election Study (N = 8,280), our contribution is threefold: We first add to previous research that indicated liberals engage in more NVP than conservatives. We then provide some of the first evidence to suggest that electoral trust-in this case, trust prior to the 2020 election-is negatively associated with NVP. Results further indicate that the negative relationship between electoral trust and NVP is strongest among those with conservative operational ideology, such that the more trust those with conservative operational ideology have in the election, the less they engage in NVP. Given that electoral trust is crucial for a well-functioning democracy, the implication is that elites with a strategic incentive to express contempt for the election process can have direct and downstream consequences on political participation.

A generation divided: The politics of Generation X

AbstractGeneration X often receives less attention in generational analysis due to its perceived lack of distinctiveness compared to preceding and succeeding generations in the contemporary United States. Politically, there is little justification for distinguishing Generation X as it is commonly defined, yet it harbors significant political divergence between its older and younger cohorts. In terms of partisanship, ideology, and public policy preferences, Generation X is markedly divided, essentially comprising two distinct political generations. Generation X can thus be viewed as the in‐between generation representing the political dividing line between young and old. The dividing point is the birth year of 1973. Due to the considerable differences in the political climate during their formative years, those Gen Xers born before 1973 lean considerably more conservative and Republican than those born in 1973 and afterward.Related ArticlesFisher, Patrick. 2020. “Generational Replacement and the Impending Transformation of the American Electorate.” Politics & Policy 48(1): 38–68. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12340.Shaykhutdinov, Renat. 2019. “Socialization, Rationality, and Age: Generational Gaps and the Attitudes toward the Chechen War in Russia.” Politics & Policy 47(5): 931–55. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12323.Stockemer, Daniel. 2016. “Is the Turnout Function in Democracies and Nondemocracies Alike or Different?” Politics & Policy 44(5): 889–915. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12174.

Partisan Poll Watchers and Americans’ Perceptions of Electoral Fairness

Abstract Poll watchers play an increasingly visible role in American elections, yet there is little research into how their presence shapes beliefs about electoral integrity. On the one hand, poll watchers—like other election observers—may lead voters to be more trusting in elections. On the other hand, poll watchers who expressly represent political parties may contribute to polarized views of electoral integrity. We address this gap with two conjoint experiments and one vignette experiment administered on large national samples. The conjoint experiments vary several features of election polling locations, including the presence of poll watchers, voter identification requirements, and other election regulations. We find that regulations around poll watchers shape views of election fairness, but that the nature of this influence depends on the type and partisanship of poll watchers who are present. The vignette experiment shows that perceptions of poll watchers decline when these individuals act in bad faith; effects are especially large for Republican respondents. These findings help identify the potential that poll watchers have to shape Americans’ beliefs about election fairness and integrity.

The Human Cost of Politicizing Immigration: Migration Stigma, US Politics, and Health

This Viewpoint discusses stigma and health consequences associated with migration in the context of the US election and identifies ways to develop structural competencies for physicians and future research.

Too cool for school: Participatory shirking and U.S. House passage of proxy voting

AbstractA large portion of the American electorate holds contempt for elected representatives who skip floor votes. As a result, political challengers, and the national political media in the U.S., rarely miss a chance to inform the electorate of the shirking behavior of its representatives. New research suggests that, in 2020, the leadership of the U.S. House of Representatives may have developed protection, albeit temporary, to legislators who engage in shirking behavior. That protection came via passage of House Resolution 965, which authorized “remote voting by proxy” in the U.S. House of Representatives due to the COVID‐19 pandemic. This study extends the literature on proxy voting by empirically examining the factors that influenced the tendency of members of the U.S. House of Representatives to either shirk (i.e., skip) the vote on proxy voting (i.e., HR 965) or to vote in favor of the resolution (i.e., HR 965) allowing for the proxy vote. Econometric results suggest that Representatives' gender, age, legislative tenure, and past penchant for participatory shirking worked to determine parliamentary participation, and the direction of one's vote, on HR 965.

Platform Convergence or Divergence? Comparing Political Ad Content Across Digital and Social Media Platforms

When it comes to the study of the messaging of online political campaigns, theory suggests that platform divergence should be common, but much research finds considerable convergence across platforms. In this research, we examine variation across digital and social media platforms in the types of paid campaign messages that are distributed, focusing on their goals, tone, and the partisanship of political rhetoric. We use data on the content of paid election advertisements placed on YouTube, Google search, Instagram, and Facebook during the 2020 elections in the United States, examining all federal candidates who advertised on these platforms during the final 2 months of the campaign. We find that YouTube is most distinct from the other platforms, perhaps because it most resembles television, but convergence better describes the two Meta platforms, Facebook and Instagram.

Increasing Voter Participation Through Health Care–Based Voter Registration

Young people and historically marginalized racial and ethnic groups are poorly represented in the democratic process. Addressing voting inequities can make policy more responsive to the needs of these communities. To assess whether leveraging health care settings as venues for voter registration and mobilization is useful, particularly for historically underrepresented populations in elections. In 2020, nonpartisan nonprofit Vot-ER partnered with health care professionals and institutions to register people to vote. This cross-sectional study analyzed the demographics and voting behavior of people mobilized to register to vote in health care settings, including hospitals, community health centers, and medical schools across the US. The age and racial and ethnic identity data of individuals engaged through Vot-ER were compared to 2 national surveys of US adults, including the 2020 Cooperative Election Study (CES) and the 2020 American National Election Study (ANES). Health care-based voter registration. The main outcomes were age composition, racial and ethnic composition, and voting history. Of the 12 441 voters contacted in health care settings, 41.9% were aged 18 to 29 years, 15.9% were identified as African American, 9.6% as Asian, 12.7% as Hispanic, and 60.4% as White. This distribution was significantly more diverse than the racial and ethnic distribution of the ANES (N = 5447) and CES (N = 39 014) samples, of which 72.5% and 71.19% self-identified as White, respectively. Voter turnout among health care-based contacts increased from 61.0% in 2016 to 79.8% in 2020, a turnout gain (18.8-percentage point gain) that was 7.7 percentage points higher than that of the ANES sample (11.1-percentage point gain). Demographically, the age distribution of voters contacted in health care settings was significantly different from the ANES and CES samples, with approximately double the proportion of young voters aged 18 to 29 years. This cross-sectional study suggests that health care-based voter mobilization reaches a distinctly younger and more racially and ethnically diverse population relative to those who reported contact from political campaigns. This analysis of the largest health care-based voter mobilization effort points to the unique impact that medical professionals may have on voter registration and turnout in the 2024 US elections. In the long term, health equity initiatives should prioritize expanding voting access to address the upstream determinants of health in historically marginalized communities.

Ideas for a Strengthened NATO Approach to the Indo-Pacific

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 appears to have revitalised NATO. However, urgent concerns remain over the West’s ability to sustain support for Ukraine and the implications for the wider Europe. These questions dominated July 2024’s Washington Summit, leaving little capacity for the many prescient Indo-Pacific threats that might additionally impact the Alliance. Given the US’s growing preoccupation with the Indo-Pacific, the longevity of its support for European security is also being questioned in the run-up to the US elections. Peter Olive suggests how NATO might chart a middle course, supporting the ongoing deterrence efforts of partners in the Indo-Pacific from afar while maintaining focus on the proximate Russian threat. ◼