Altitudinal Shifts Research Articles

Climate change may cause the extinction of the butterfly Lasiommata petropolitana in the Apennines

Climate change represents a threat to narrow-ranged mountain species living in low-altitude massifs. We studied the disjunct Apennine population of Lasiommata petropolitana (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae) in the Gran Sasso and Monti della Laga National Park. We quantified the altitudinal shifts undergone in the last decades (1964–2021) in the Alps and Apennines and estimated the local extinction risk due to climate change. We also sequenced the COI mitochondrial marker of seven Apennine specimens, comparing them with those available across the Palearctic. We projected the probability of presence for the species under a future climatic scenario using an ensemble forecasting approach. We found that, despite geographical isolation, the Apennine population of L. petropolitana displays a single widespread COI haplotype also occurring in most European populations. In the Alps and Apennines, this species has shifted uphill an average of 6.3 m per year since 1964. Accordingly, our model predicted a likely extinction in the Apennines by about 2060, due to a reduction of the climatic suitability in this region.Implications for insect conservationImplications for insect conservation Despite its potential loss in the Apennines would not erode mitochondrial diversity, L. petropolitana characterises the butterfly community of the Gran Sasso massif as an alpine enclave. The loss of the Apennine population, together with those of other orophilous butterflies, could trigger a homogenization of alpha and beta diversity and induce a loss of functional diversity in the impoverished high-altitude biotas. As habitat heterogeneity is a key aspect for populations to endure climate change, the maintenance of varied microhabitats, mainly through grazing management, could address the decline of this population.

Small mammals in a mountain ecosystem: the effect of topographic, micrometeorological, and biological correlates on their community structure

An increasing number of studies have investigated spatial and temporal patterns in species richness and assemblage composition in mountain ecosystems along altitudinal gradients. Small mammals have been successfully used as indicators of environmental health and as proxies of biodiversity. However, information about the composition and distribution of species assemblages in the mosaic of habitat and rocky landform types at a high altitude is still lacking for most of the mountain regions. Through the use of live traps and camera trapping, we described the small mammal community living above the treeline of the Western Dolomites (Italian Alps), investigating the species richness, abundance of individuals and community composition in relation to topographic, micrometeorological, mesohabitat, and biological correlates. A total of five species and 50 individuals were sampled, analysed, and released. At the extremes of the analysed altitudinal range (i.e. 1900 vs 2900 m a.s.l.), community composition was completely different and species richness was related to elevation, steepness, and vegetation cover. At the same time, the taxonomic distinctness of ground-dwelling arthropods (namely carabid beetles and spiders), a proxy of habitat complexity, showed higher values in areas with a greater small mammal species richness. We found a positive effect of steepness and rocky landform type “carsism” on the number of captured individuals, showing the importance of the availability of shelters and underground burrows for the sampled species. As a confirmation of the altitudinal shift for these species in relation to the ongoing climate change, we detected a negative impact of sub-surface ground temperature on small mammal abundance during the monitoring period. In conclusion, small mammals represent an excellent model for understanding the evolutionary processes of ecosystems, population dynamics under changing environmental conditions, and habitat vulnerabilities.

The Lesser-Known Transitions: Organismal Form and Function across Abiotic Gradients.

From minute-to-minute changes, or across daily, seasonal, or geological timescales, animals are forced to navigate dynamic surroundings. Their abiotic environment is continually changing. These changes could include alterations to the substrates animals locomote on, flow dynamics of the microhabitats they feed in, or even altitudinal shifts over migration routes. The only constancy in any organism's day-to-day existence is the heterogeneity of the habitats they move through and the gradients in the physical media (e.g., air and water) they live in. We explored a broad range of organismal transitions across abiotic gradients and investigated how these organisms modify their form, function, and behavior to accommodate their surrounding media. We asked the following questions: (1) What are some challenges common to animals in changing media or moving between media? (2) What are common solutions to these recurring problems? (3) How often are these common solutions instances of either convergence or parallelism? Our symposium speakers explored these questions through critical analysis of numerous datasets spanning multiple taxa, timescales, and levels of analysis. After discussions with our speakers, we suggest that the role of physical principles (e.g., drag, gravity, buoyancy, and viscosity) in constraining morphology and shaping the realized niche has been underappreciated. We recommend that investigations of these transitions and corresponding adaptations should include comparisons at multiple levels of biological organization and timescale. Relatedly, studies of organisms that undergo habitat and substrate changes over ontogeny would be worthwhile to include in comparisons. Future researchers should ideally complement lab-based morphological and kinematic studies with observational and experimental approaches in the field. Synthesis of the findings of our speakers across multiple study systems, timescales, and transitional habitats suggests that behavioral modification and exaptation of morphology play key roles in modulating novel transitions between substrates.

Re‐surveys reveal biotic homogenization of Orthoptera assemblages as a consequence of environmental change

AbstractAimBiodiversity loss is a major global challenge. While population trends of vertebrates are well documented, insect declines have not been sufficiently studied. We aim to identify changes in Orthoptera assemblages and the underlying drivers with a focus on land‐use and climate change.LocationCentral Europe.Time period2018 to 2020.MethodsWe resurveyed 199 study sites in which Orthoptera assemblages had been recorded between 1986 and 1999.ResultsOur results show a significant increase in species per site (α‐diversity), but simultaneously a homogenization of Orthoptera assemblages (decreasing Sorensen's β‐diversity). Highly mobile species significantly increased in site occupancy compared to species with low mobility. Some Orthoptera species showed significant altitudinal range shifts, including species with positive trends (i.e. expansion to higher altitudes) and negative trends (i.e. extinction at lower altitudes). Abandonment of extensively used grassland sites and the associated afforestation had negative effects on Orthoptera, underlining the importance of extensive grassland management. Protected areas had a high efficacy for conservation as trends in site occupancy were generally more positive in protected areas than in unprotected sites.Main conclusionsOur results provide insights into the patterns and drivers of orthopteran assemblage turnover, including major effects of agricultural land‐use change and climate change. These results are essential for implementing and adapting conservation action, as they show that traditional land‐use practices, protected areas and reduction of nitrogen input are important to preserve Orthoptera. The results also show that climate change is driving both range expansion and retraction of species. Therefore, insect monitoring is critical to understanding insect population trends and implementing the necessary actions.

Riding an escalator: upward range shift and patterns of genetic response to climate change in Acer caudatifolium

AbstractAimRapid global warming is threatening global biodiversity, and it will likely lead to varying degrees of local adaptation, particularly amongst plant species. Besides, rising temperatures frequently result in upslope distribution shifts towards climatic optima (i.e. the escalator effect) within a limited dispersal space, such as in insular environments. Here, we integrated ecological and genetic approaches to investigate how climate change will impact the genetic compositions and spatial distributions of Taiwan's endemic maple Acer caudatifolium.LocationTaiwan.MethodsWe estimate the distribution range shifts of A. caudatifolium under climate change through species distribution modelling (SDM). We also use 368 genotyped samples to infer dispersal and genetic hotspots and quantify the contributions of geography/environments to genetic variations. We further assess the potential risk to A. caudatifolium under different climate warming scenarios.ResultsWe detected three genetic diversity hotspots near mountainous glacial refugia and two dispersal hotspots in northern Taiwan and the central‐to‐southern Central Mountain Range. Overall range reductions and an altitudinal upslope shift were observed in SDM. Using both linear and nonlinear regression approaches, we found that genetic variation was significantly associated with geographic distance and elevation‐related climatic variables. The potential risk analysis revealed that the northernmost summit‐dwelling populations were the most vulnerable. Furthermore, the major risk factor differed amongst populations: for central populations, temperature and precipitation jointly determined the potential risk, whereas precipitation was the only risk factor for northern and southern populations.Main conclusionsThis case study demonstrates how various climate factors, mountain height and the availability of corridors jointly determine the demographic fates and sustainability of island maples in the face of climate change. This study also provided estimates of the implications of global warming, which can be conducive to developing appropriate conservation strategies.

Remote tracking of Galápagos pink land iguana reveals large elevational shifts in habitat use

Critically endangered Galápagos pink land iguanas, Conolophus marthae, are considered a rare and elusive species. These iguanas are endemic to Wolf Volcano, on Isabela Island (Galápagos), where they persist as a single, very small population on the northwestern slope of the volcano. In an attempt to unveil important information about their ecology and behavior we monitored and analyzed the movement data of a male C. marthae collected over a period of 159 days, from 25 September 2019 until 3 March 2020. We used a custom designed GPS-Wireless Sensor Node (WSN) to remotely track and describe the migration pattern of this individual. Using GPS location data and trajectory reconstruction we documented an altitudinal shift of more than 1000 m. These results not only agree with observations recorded while collecting data in the field but were also used to reconstruct and describe the individual’s migratory behavior, and to document the potential path that this individual, and presumably others of this species, follow while searching for food or mates. The altitudinal shift described whether shared across individuals of the species or part of intraspecific variation, may be related to different factors. Here, we discuss alternative interpretations of this behavior. The urgent need to gather data on the species’ ecology and develop an appropriate conservation strategy underlines the importance of this research. Although it is not possible to draw conclusions for an entire species based on results from one individual, this work represents a significant advancement for the conservation of this species, as it validates the importance of using cutting-edge remote-tracking technology to collect data on a very elusive species, and it reveals ecological traits not previously documented for these critically endangered iguanas.

Molecular Insights into the Centaurea Calocephala Complex (Compositae) from the Balkans—Does Phylogeny Match Systematics?

Groups of recent speciation are characterized by high levels of introgression and gene flow, which often confounds delimitation of species on a DNA basis. We analyzed nuclear DNA sequences (ETS spacer and the AGT1 gene) obtained from a large sample of the C. calocephala complex from the Balkan clade of Centaurea sect. Acrocentron (Compositae, Cardueae-Centaureinae) together with a wide representation of other species from the section. Our main goals were to verify the monophyly of the complex as currently defined and to examine the possible presence of introgression and gene flow. Within the complex, species are well-delimited from a morphological point of view and probably originated by allopatric speciation in the Balkan Peninsula. Our results confirm that the Balkan–Eurasian complex is a natural group, but the Centaurea calocephala complex shows a very complicated pattern and its phylogeny is not resolved. Our hypothesis suggests that altitudinal shifts in the transits from glacial to interglacial periods caused successive hybridization events, which are very evident from the DNA networks, between taxa not currently sympatric. As a result, confirmation of interspecific boundaries using molecular markers is extremely complicated.

Потенциальное влияние изменения климата на распространение ели обыкновенной (Picea abies Karst.) в Боснии и Герцеговине

As forests in Bosnia and Herzegovina cover 2,904,600 ha or 56.7 % of its total area, and since the meteorological data analysis for the period 1961–2014 shows that the mean annual temperature maintains a continuous rise, сlose attention should be paid to these fragile ecosystems. It is important to note that one of the most economically valuable species for forestry in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Norway spruce, is particularly endangered due to its very low drought resistance and spread of various diseases. Comparing the last climate sequence (1991–2019) with the previous one (1961–1990) we found that the spruce-inhabited areas showed an average increase in the values of the Forest Aridity Index of 0.929. As for the Ellenberg’s climate quotient, it is noticeable that climate change is not as strong as in the case of the Forest Aridity Index. Based on projections for the mid- (2041–2070) and late-century (2071–2100) under the RCP 4.5, there will be no change that is likely to significantly affect the distribution of spruce. The predicted rates of decline and altitudinal shifts of favorable habitats are negligible. On the contrary, projections under the RCP 8.5 predict a significant reduction of suitable habitats, both for the existing range of Norway spruce and the entire territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Particularly, late-century projection under the RCP 8.5 predicts an almost complete reduction of suitable habitats, while small areas of suitable habitats at higher elevations will remain intact.

Climate warming will widen the lagging gap of global treeline shift relative to densification

Altitudinal treeline is typically considered as being sensitive to climate change, and treelines worldwide have been responding to climate warming by increasing in elevation and stand density. However, little is known how upward shift and tree densification within treelines are interrelated. Studies of these two ecological processes at regional and local scale have yielded heterogeneous results, showing that either some treelines displayed tree densification without significant advance in their positions or inversely some treelines have shifted their positions upward without any noticeable densification. To explore this variation, we here quantified the difference between the rate of altitudinal upward shift and the rate of tree densification within treelines worldwide and identified its global drivers. The mismatch between upslope shift and tree densification has been observed widely within over 63% of the global treelines, which was primarily driven by temperature change, showing that compared with the rate of tree densification, the rate of treeline shift tended to decrease when accompanied by the increasing rate of warming. Thus, our findings revealed that the accelerating climate warming has enlarged the mismatch between the rate of upward shift and the rate of tree densification and thus widened the lagging gap of global treeline shift relative to densification.

'Fly to a Safer North': Distributional Shifts of the Orchid Ophrys insectifera L. Due to Climate Change.

Simple SummaryClimate change is one of the major threats to plant diversity and is expected to force species distributions into latitudinal or altitudinal shifts. The complex biology of orchids, and their many interactions with other organisms, increases their vulnerability in a changing climate. This study focuses on how climatic alterations will affect the distribution of the fly orchid (Ophrys insectifera L.), one of the most well-known and distinctive Ophrys species in Europe, using models that predict the species range changes in the future, based on environmental factors. The orchid’s environmentally suitable area is projected to shift northwards but downhill in the future, experiencing a moderate overall range contraction. More specifically in near- and long-term future, it is expected to be lost in South Europe, especially from the Balkans, while it will gain areas in North Europe, with the UK, Scandinavia, and the Baltic countries being among the winners. These results, although conservative since they are based only on abiotic variables, provide useful insights on the fly orchid’s response to future climatic change, and can serve as a basis for further studies on a finer scale.Numerous orchid species around the world have already been affected by the ongoing climate change, displaying phenological alterations and considerable changes to their distributions. The fly orchid (Ophrys insectifera L.) is a well-known and distinctive Ophrys species in Europe, with a broad distribution across the continent. This study explores the effects of climate change on the range of O. insectifera, using a species distribution models (SDMs) framework that encompasses different climatic models and scenarios for the near- and long-term future. The species’ environmentally suitable area is projected to shift northwards (as expected) but downhill (contrary to usual expectations) in the future. In addition, an overall range contraction is predicted under all investigated combinations of climatic models and scenarios. While this is moderate overall, it includes some regions of severe loss and other areas with major gains. Specifically, O. insectifera is projected to experience major area loss in its southern reaches (the Balkans, Italy and Spain), while it will expand its northern limits to North Europe, with the UK, Scandinavia, and the Baltic countries exhibiting the largest gains.

MAPPING APPLE TREES FUTURE LAND USE POTENTIAL AS A MEANS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN EAST-MEDITERRANEAN MOUNTAINS: MOUNT-LEBANON

Agricultural zonal migrations and altitudinal shifts of high chill requirements fruit trees such as apple trees is considered a way of adaptation to climate change in mountain agriculture. This study examines near and far future options (2050-2070) of this local adaptation method in four village clusters in Mount-Lebanon, involving the expansion of agricultural lands to suitable regions under different degrees of climate change scenarios of temperature increase and precipitations regime fluctuation. A Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping calculation model was established for agricultural land evaluation which aims to locate spaces where the agriculture development indicators such as soil type, slope, future temperatures, and future precipitations will be suitable for cultivation under different climate change scenarios and models. The model does not seek the exact delineation of plots as much as the location of areas with a trend of agricultural relevance in the next 30 to 50 years. This classification is a tool to help Mount-Lebanon farmers and apple growers in adapting locally to climate change by choosing the best future spots to migrate their crops to. Results showed that most lands in which agricultural development is viable, are already in use for apple production (mainly) in the 4 clusters, leaving small parcels of land with variable agro-potentials to be developed in the future under favorable climate conditions. The agriculture potential of plots of altitude exceeding 2000 meters is to be validated in the studied area, especially since the climatic and irrigation conditions of there can present serious challenges.

Prediction of three-dimensional shift in the distribution of largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) under climate change in South Korea

Predicting the shift of invasive species distribution in response to climate change is essential for ecological risk assessment. In this study, the distribution of invasive largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) was predicted from 2016 to 2085 in the Han River basin of South Korea using HadGEM3-RA based climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios). A random forest model was developed using largemouth bass occurrence data and environmental variables (temperature, precipitation, flow rate, water quality, elevation, and slope) for five years (2011–2015). The annual mean temperature was the second most contributing variable after elevation. The occurrence of largemouth bass in the Han River basin was expected to increase in the future with increasing annual mean temperature, especially after the 2060 s (2056–2065) in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The latitudinal, longitudinal, and altitudinal shifts of largemouth bass distribution were expected to be −1.76 km, 4.19 km, and 9.07 m per 10 years under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively, indicating a gradual southeastward shift to higher locations. Given that invasive fish can disturb the habitat of endemic species, three-dimensional distribution shift under climate change should be considered for the ecological risk assessment of invasive species.

The potential effects of climate change on the populations of Aedes punctor (Diptera: Culicidae) in Hungary

In Hungary, the boreal-alpine mosquito Aedes punctor has a disjunct distribution limited to the Hungarian mid-mountains. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential effect of global warming on the future (2041–2060 and 2061–2080) climatic suitability for the mosquito in Hungary. The results indicate the heterogeneous, but in general, the negative effect of climate change on the distribution area of Aedes punctor in this region. The models predict the total loss of mosquito habitat in the Transdanubian mountain ranges (Bakony-Balaton and Mecsek Mts.) for 2061–2080. In the North Hungarian Mountains (in the Mátra Mts.), climatic alterations may result in the habitat contraction, but not total disappearance of the climatically suitable areas for Aedes punctor at higher elevations of mountain ranges. It can be concluded that climate change can cause the altitudinal shift of the suitable habitats and the range-contraction of Hungarian middle mountains-inhabiting populations of the mosquito in Hungary in the second half of the twenty-first century assuming that the future climatic needs of the species would remain the same as at present.

Short-lived species move uphill faster under climate change

Climate change is pushing species ranges and abundances towards the poles and mountain tops. Although many studies have documented local altitudinal shifts, knowledge of general patterns at a large spatial scale, such as a whole mountain range, is scarce. From a conservation perspective, studying altitudinal shifts in wildlife is relevant because mountain regions often represent biodiversity hotspots and are among the most vulnerable ecosystems. Here, we examine whether altitudinal shifts in birds’ abundances have occurred in the Scandinavian mountains over 13 years, and assess whether such shifts are related to species’ traits. Using abundance data, we show a clear pattern of uphill shift in the mean altitude of bird abundance across the Scandinavian mountains, with an average speed of 0.9 m per year. Out of 76 species, 7 shifted significantly their abundance uphill. Altitudinal shift was strongly related to species’ longevity: short-lived species showed more pronounced uphill shifts in abundance than long-lived species. The observed abundance shifts suggest that uphill shifts are not only driven by a small number of individuals at the range boundaries, but the overall bird abundances are on the move. Overall, the results underscore the wide-ranging impact of climate change and the potential vulnerability of species with slow life histories, as they appear less able to timely respond to rapidly changing climatic conditions.

Changes in Alpine Butterfly Communities during the Last 40 Years.

Simple SummaryThe Alps are among the most vulnerable ecosystems to climate change, as these modifications take place at a faster pace at higher elevations. Since butterflies are ideal model systems to investigate species responses to climate and habitat changes, we monitored a butterfly community of the Valasco valley in the Maritime Alps (NW Italy) by three sampling events covering a period longer than 40 years. We observed an overall increase in mobile, tolerant and thermophilous species, which eventually might cause an overall loss of community distinctiveness. The variations observed in the butterfly community can be explained by the notable increase in maximum temperatures and the reduction of grasslands, along with the increase of woodlands, supporting the hypothesis that local warming and land-use changes have ultimately affected the butterfly community composition.Our work aims to assess how butterfly communities in the Italian Maritime Alps changed over the past 40 years, in parallel with altitudinal shifts occurring in plant communities. In 2019, we sampled butterflies at 7 grassland sites, between 1300–1900 m, previously investigated in 2009 and 1978, by semi-quantitative linear transects. Fine-scale temperature and precipitation data elaborated by optimal interpolation techniques were used to quantify climate changes. The changes in the vegetation cover and main habitat alterations were assessed by inspection of aerial photographs (1978–2018/1978–2006–2015). The vegetation structure showed a marked decrease of grassland habitats and an increase of woods (1978–2009). Plant physiognomy has remained stable in recent years (2009–2019) with some local exceptions due to geomorphic disturbance. We observed butterfly ‘species substitution’ indicating a general loss in the more specialised and a general gain in more tolerant elements. We did not observe any decrease in species richness, but rather a change in guild compositions, with (i) an overall increased abundance in some widespread and common lowland species and (ii) the disappearance (or strong decrease) of some alpine (high elevation) species, so that ‘resilience’ could be just delusive. Changes in butterfly community composition were consistent with predicted impacts of local warming.

Climate-Change Impacts on the Southernmost Mediterranean Arctic-Alpine Plant Populations

Human-induced climate- and land-use change have been affecting biogeographical and biodiversity patterns for the past two centuries all over the globe, resulting in increased extinction and biotic homogenization rates. High mountain ecosystems are more sensitive to these changes, which have led to physiological and phenological shifts, as well as to ecosystem processes’ deformation. Glacial relicts, such as arctic-alpine taxa, are sensitive indicators of the effects of global warming and their rear-edge populations could include warm-adapted genotypes that might prove—conservation-wise—useful in an era of unprecedented climate regimes. Despite the ongoing thermophilization in European and Mediterranean summits, it still remains unknown how past and future climate-change might affect the distributional patterns of the glacial relict, arctic-alpine taxa occurring in Greece, their European southernmost distributional limit. Using species distribution models, we investigated the impacts of past and future climate changes on the arctic-alpine taxa occurring in Greece and identified the areas comprising arctic-alpine biodiversity hotspots in Greece. Most of these species will be faced with severe range reductions in the near future, despite their innate resilience to a multitude of threats, while the species richness hotspots will experience both altitudinal and latitudinal shifts. Being long-lived perennials means that there might be an extinction-debt present in these taxa, and a prolonged stability phase could be masking the deleterious effects of climate change on them. Several ex situ conservation measures (e.g., seed collection, population augmentation) should be taken to preserve the southernmost populations of these rare arctic-alpine taxa and a better understanding of their population genetics is urgently needed.

Land Use Changes in the Alpine Tree Line Ecotone in the Hrubý Jeseník Mountains (Czech Republic)

Abstract Currently, we expected a altitudinal shift of forest vegetation upward under predicted climate changes impacts to European mountains ecosystems. In this context can be very interesting, that changes in alpine tree line ecotone in high European mountains were induced by human activities relatively often also in history. Probably one of the most important driver in land-use changes in high mountains was grazing, which significantly have influenced both mountain spruce forests and open alpine grasslands in central-Europe. This paper deals with historical changes of land-use in Hruby Jesenik Mountains (Czech Republic) during 19th and 20th centuries. Results revealed consequences of former grazing in mountain grasslands above alpine tree line ecotone in the frame of land-use analyses based on historical maps and other sources. These results, based on historical data, support our better understanding to current dynamic changes in European mountain landscapes.

14,500 years of vegetation and land use history in the upper continental montane zone at Lac de Champex (Valais, Switzerland)

Forests in the upper continental montane zone are important ecotones between lowland and subalpine forest ecosystems. A thorough understanding of the past vegetation dynamics at mid elevation is crucial to assess past and future altitudinal range shifts of tree species in response to climate change. Lake sediments from Lac de Champex (1,467 m a.s.l.), a small lake in the Canton Valais in the Central Swiss Alps were analysed to reconstruct the vegetation, land use and fire history for the last 14,500 years, using pollen, macrofossils, non-pollen palynomorphs and charcoal. The record indicates that the tree line had already reached the Champex area during the Allerød (14,000 cal bp) but dropped below the lake’s catchment during the Younger Dryas cooling (12,750–11,550 cal bp). Reforestation started again with Betula and Pinus sylvestris in the Early Holocene at 11,500 cal bp in response to rapid climate warming. Temperate tree species (Ulmus, Tilia, Quercus, Acer) may have reached the altitude of the lake during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (ca. 10,000–5,000 cal bp). Mixed forests with mesophilous Abies alba were dominant between 7,500 and 5,000 cal bp. The mass expansions of Picea abies after 5,000 cal bp and Alnus viridis thickets after 4,500 cal bp were directly linked to increasing human disturbance. High values of coprophilous Sporormiella fungal spores and cereal pollen suggest pastoral and arable farming at the site from the Late Neolithic/Early Bronze Age onwards (5,000 cal bp). Our data imply that vegetation at intermediate elevation was less affected by human activities than at higher or lower elevations but that these areas served as important stations between the permanent settlements in the valleys and the seasonally occupied alpine huts at higher elevations. We argue that future climate warming will lead to drastic reorganizations of mountain ecosystems.

Demographic inferences and climatic niche modelling shed light on the evolutionary history of the emblematic cold-adapted Apollo butterfly at regional scale.

Cold-adapted species escape climate warming by latitudinal and/or altitudinal range shifts, and currently occur in Southern Europe in isolated mountain ranges within "sky islands". Here, we studied the genetic structure of the Apollo butterfly in five such sky islands (above 1,000m) in France, and infer its demographic history since the last interglacial, using single nucleotide polymorphisms (ddRADseq SNPs). The Auvergne and Alps populations show strong genetic differentiation but not alpine massifs, although separated by deep valleys. Combining three complementary demographic inference methods and species distribution models (SDMs) we show that the LIG period was highly unfavourable for Apollo that probably survived in small population in the highest summits of Auvergne. The population shifted downslope and expanded eastward between LIG and LGM throughout the large climatically suitable Rhône valley between the glaciated summits of Auvergne and Alps. The Auvergne and Alps populations started diverging before the LGM but remained largely connected till the mid-Holocene. Population decline in Auvergne was more gradual but started before (~7kya vs. 800 ya), and was much stronger with current population size ten times lower than in the Alps. In the Alps, the low genetic structure and limited evidence for isolation by distance suggest a nonequilibrium metapopulation functioning. The core Apollo population experienced cycles of contraction-expansion with climate fluctuations with largely interconnected populations overtime according to a "metapopulation-pulsar" functioning. This study demonstrates the power of combining demographic inferences and SDMs to determine past and future evolutionary trajectories of an endangered species at a regional scale.

The isolated Erebia pandrose Apennine population is genetically unique and endangered by climate change

Abstract Climate change is causing shifts in the distribution of many species and populations inhabiting mountain tops are particularly vulnerable to these threats because they are constrained in altitudinal shifts. Apennines are a relatively narrow and low mountain chain located in Southern Europe, which hosts many isolated populations of mountain species. The butterfly Erebia pandrose was recorded for the last time in the Apennines in 1977, on the top of a single massif (Monti della Laga). We confirmed the presence of a small, isolated population of E. pandrose in the Apennines, at a distance of more than 400 km to any other known populations. Then, we examined the cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 mitochondrial DNA marker of this species across the Palaearctic area and estimated the potential decline over the Alps and the Apennines due to future climatic changes. The Apennine population represents an endemic lineage characterised by eight mutations over the 658 bp analysed (1.2%). In the Alps and Apennines, this species has shifted uphill more than 3 m per year since the end of the 19th century and more than 22 m per year since 1995. Species distribution models suggested that these mountain populations will experience a generalised loss of climatic suitability, which, according to our projections, could lead to the extinction of the Apennine population in a few decades. Erebia pandrose has the potential to become a flagship species for advertising the risk of losing unique fractions of genetic diversity for mountain species.