Alternative Versions Research Articles

New Combined Metric for Full-Reference Image Quality Assessment

In recent years, many new metrics highly correlated with the Mean Opinion Score (MOS) have been proposed for assessing image quality through Full-Reference Image Quality Assessment (FR-IQA) methods, such as MDSI, HPSI, and GMSD. Eight of these selected metrics, which compare reference and distorted images in a symmetrical manner, are briefly described in this article, and their performance is evaluated using correlation criteria (PLCC, SROCC, and KROCC), as well as RMSE. The aim of this paper is to develop a new, efficient quality index based on a combination of several high-performance metrics already utilized in the field of Image Quality Assessment (IQA). The study was conducted on four benchmark image databases (TID2008, TID2013, KADID-10k, and PIPAL) and identified the three best-performing metrics for each database. The paper introduces a New Combined Metric (NCM), which is a weighted sum of three component metrics, and demonstrates its superiority over each of its component metrics across all the examined databases. An optimization method for determining the weights of the NCM is also presented. Additionally, an alternative version of the combined metric, based on the fastest metrics and employing symmetric calculations for pairs of compared images, is discussed. This version also demonstrates strong performance.

Editor's view: Is the brain's perception of ideas an underappreciated human sense?

Humans have developed sensory organs for their 'major' senses and specific neuronal receptors for a number of additional senses. Although information from sensors is integrated and processed in the brain, the brain itself has not been proposed as a sensory organ associated with a particular sense - at least not in Western culture or scientific literature. Perception of ideas has many elements of a separate sense, with the brain being a primary sensory organ. I support this notion based on 17 years of experience in the application of the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method for setting research priorities, which resulted in more than 150 publications involving thousands of experts who prioritised more than 20 000 research ideas. This body of work allows for the generalisation of the following key concepts: defining an idea in the context of the brain's sensory perception; defining the point of origin, sensory qualities, and common types of ideas; considering responses of the body to the brain's sensory exposure to ideas; and defining the key criteria that the brain uses to discriminate between and prioritise ideas. The human brain is continuously being exposed to ideas, which can be self-generated, triggered by information from other sensors, or introduced from the external world. From the brain's sensory perspective, ideas are competing possibilities of purposeful activities that, if followed, would be expected to result in an alternative version of the future. Pursuing ideas tends to drive most of human activity. It requires prioritising between short-, mid-, and long-term investment of energy and time. The brain's sensory role is to continuously assess many competing ideas and prioritise between them based on motivational/emotional ('attractiveness'), operational/rational ('feasibility') and outcome-related perspective ('impact'). Exposure to new ideas may instigate physiological and psychological responses, ranging from enthusiasm and excitement to feeling a threat or fear. Ideas can be used to mobilise large groups of people whose brains respond with excessive enthusiasm that can sometimes be fanatical. The judgment on the attractiveness, feasibility, and potential impact of ideas is affected by education, experience, and cognitive abilities. This sense may be sharpened through an increased level of expert knowledge and experience. Misinformation and disinformation are dangerous because they affect the brain's perception of ideas. Impairment of this inherent sense may perhaps contribute to some mental health issues. The proposed view of the brain as the sensor of ideas could lead to many qualitative or quantitative experiments to further explore the properties of this sense in both individuals and populations, establishing 'the science of ideas'.

“We are More Than This”: Counterhistories and Female Voices in Maaza Mengiste’s The Shadow King

ABSTRACT In this essay, I examine the potential of the counterfactual framework in retelling obscured or misrepresented stories of women in African wartime narratives. I analyse Maaza Mengiste’s The Shadow King (2019), which uses the Second Italo-Ethiopian War as a foundation for its narrative. I argue that the novel challenges dominant male-authored accounts of nationalist histories by presenting alternative versions — counterfacts — that disrupt the linear progression of nationalist History and highlight women’s roles and experiences during the war. I draw upon Catherine Gallagher’s conceptualisation of counterfactuals as ‘counterhistories’ and Gerald Prince’s notion of ‘disnarration.’ These elements enable Mengiste to offer alternative perspectives on the war, putting women’s experiences at the forefront. By reading the text as a counterfactual novel, we can establish a dialogue and comparison between historical accounts and the fictional worlds of women’s historical novels, differentiating between what is factual and what is obscured or elided. Consequently, I contend that counterfactuals provide a way to uncover previously overlooked spaces, revealing the presence and absence of women’s histories and exposing History as incomplete, inaccurate, and deficient in certain aspects — a myth.

Co-Design of a Facilitated Self-Management Toolkit for People With Parkinson's Disease.

Parkinson's disease is a complex progressive neurodegenerative disease increasing globally. Self-management interventions have shown promise in improving the quality of life for people with chronic conditions. This paper aims to describe the development processes and the core components of a facilitated self-management toolkit to support people with Parkinson's disease to self-manage their condition. An iterative co-design approach was adopted and included the use of systematic reviews, qualitative methods and theory to develop the Live Well with Parkinson's toolkit. A co-design group was established consisting of people with Parkinson's, family carers and health and social care experts to produce and refine an online self-management toolkit to be tested in practice. Five co-design groups were conducted alongside several phases of toolkit development. An online self-management toolkit, called Live Well with Parkinson's, was developed with core aspects such as tailored information to the individual, a well-being section using an asset-based approach and problem-solving skills to create and maintain goals, symptom review and management sections and a tracker of medication, symptoms and activities/actions. A paper-based alternative version was also created for those who cannot use an online resource. The toolkit is fully manualised and facilitated by six sessions from a 'supporter' who is trained in behaviour change techniques. It can be shared with carers and healthcare professionals. The toolkit is a robust and comprehensive approach to self-management of Parkinson's disease. It is evidenced based, incorporates theory and was developed with people with Parkinson's and experts in the area. The Live Well with Parkinson's toolkit has the potential to be embedded within routine healthcare, aligning with self-management policies. Author B.M. is our patient and public involvement (PPI) representative and author on this paper. B.M. supports a team of 15 PPI members who have contributed to the development of the toolkit. This involvement has included attending research team and steering group meetings, attending and facilitating co-designed workshops, reviewing all the toolkit information before approval and supporting with the user testing.

Exploring the relevance of Universal Design for Learning implementation in the post-secondary landscape from the perspective of sustainability

This presentation showcases findings from a Canadian study which was carried out through 2023-24. This project explores an innovative facet of the momentum around sustainability within higher education, one that goes beyond the focus on environmental and operational preoccupations and concentrates on social and pedagogical sustainability. It examines the way the introduction of Universal Design for Learning (UDL) to a campus, through the creation of a cross-discipline community of practice, can (i) empower faculty to develop sustainable accessible practices within their own classroom, (ii) significantly reduce the reliance of the campus on accessibility services and reduce the pressure felt by these services, (iii) successfully integrate accessibility and inclusion within institutional strategic thinking around sustainability. The presentation synthesizes findings from a qualitative action-research project which examined perceptions and experiences of 14 stakeholders with different status and toles across the campus. The study adopted a phenomenological approach to data collection and analysis (Holland, 2014) and explored the participants’ own constructs in relation to the overlap between UDL and sustainability. Accessibility in the higher education has thus far been addressed through a medical model approach focused on retrofitting. In a nutshell, teaching and learning is designed for the ‘traditional learner’ and support services take on the task of supporting students who experience barriers in this design, with remedial, targeted services outside the classroom. The demographics of higher education, however, have changed widely over the last two decades, and retrofitting approaches are no longer sustainable. The volume of demand is growing exponentially, wait times increase, and the cost of Accessibility Services increases in a way that becomes unmanageable within most post-secondary campuses (NEADS, 2018). Universal Design for Learning (UDL) can address many of these strains on resources. Indeed, UDL is an emerging model for the management of diversity in the classroom which equips instructors to remove the majority of barriers to access to learning and support the needs of most diverse learners within the classroom itself (Al-Azawei et al., 2016). The literature highlights that most of the needs of diverse learners can be addressed with ease within the classroom itself once inclusive design and UDL are adopted and integrated as a mindset, across institutions (Baumann & Melle, 2019; Dalton et al., 2019). UDL can therefore address some of the concerns over the sustainability of current disability service provision models. The need for a sustainable lens in this area is therefore tangible and pressing. Accessibility services, student services personnel, and faculty are all painfully feeling first-hand the inability of the current structure to meet the needs of diverse learners and to address the volume of service requests. UDL has the potential to address this strain on support services and to re-empower faculty to create inclusive provisions within the classroom space. A practical example of this would be the considerable pressure placed on accessibility services to digitalize printed material or to seek alternate versions of PDFs that are shared in class but are not accessible with reading software. This is an example of costly, repetitive use of resources that can be solved sustainably by empowering instructors to use the UDL principles in their class design and not rely on print only or on non-accessible digital documents. This has immediate resource and funding implications. UDL integration represents a clear example of sustainable transformation: an initial focus on professional development with faculty leads to a reduction in spending and resources that are non-renewable (Fovet, 2017). The presentation showcases the wider implications for UDL development across the sector.

Derivation and Validation of the PRECISE-HBR Score to Predict Bleeding After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

Accurate bleeding risk stratification after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is important for treatment individualization. However, there is still an unmet need for a more precise and standardized identification of high bleeding risk patients. We derived and validated a novel bleeding risk score by augmenting the PRECISE-DAPT score with the Academic Research Consortium for High Bleeding Risk (ARC-HBR) criteria. The derivation cohort comprised 29,188 patients undergoing PCI, of whom 1136 (3.9%) had a Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC) 3 or 5 bleeding at 1 year, from four contemporary real-world registries and the XIENCE V USA trial. The PRECISE-DAPT score was refitted with a Fine-Gray model in the derivation cohort and extended with the ARC-HBR criteria. The primary outcome was BARC 3 or 5 bleeding within 1 year. Independent predictors of BARC 3 or 5 bleeding were selected at multivariable analysis (p<0.01). The discrimination of the score was internally assessed with apparent validation and cross-validation. The score was externally validated in 4578 patients from the MASTER DAPT trial and 5970 patients from the STOPDAPT-2 total cohort. The PRECISE-HBR score (age, estimated glomerular filtration rate, hemoglobin, white-blood-cell count, previous bleeding, oral anticoagulation, and ARC-HBR criteria) showed an area under the curve (AUC) for 1-year BARC 3 or 5 bleeding of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.71-0.74) at apparent validation, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.70-0.73) at cross-validation, 0.74 (95% CI, 0.68-0.80) in the MASTER DAPT, and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.66-0.79) in the STOPDAPT-2, with superior discrimination than the PRECISE-DAPT (cross-validation: Δ AUC, 0.01; p=0.02; MASTER DAPT: Δ AUC, 0.05; p=0.004; STOPDAPT-2: Δ AUC, 0.02; p=0.20) and other risk scores. In the derivation cohort, a cut-off of 23 points identified 11,414 patients (39.1%) with a 1-year BARC 3 or 5 bleeding risk ≥4%. An alternative version of the score, including acute myocardial infarction on admission instead of white-blood-cell count, showed similar predictive ability. The PRECISE-HBR score is a contemporary, simple 7-item risk score to predict bleeding after PCI, offering a moderate improvement in discrimination over multiple existing scores. Further evaluation is required to assess its impact on clinical practice.

Цивилизационный анализ в исторической социологии и объяснения «советского коллапса»

The article deals with attempts to explain the collapse of the Soviet version of modernity –and the disintegration of the USSR—in (post)-Sovietology and historical sociology. It is argued that (post)-Sovietological studies were often characterized by a certain degree of ideological bias. In these studies, the example of “Soviet collapse” was generally used for a confirmation of earlier approaches to Soviet history. At the same time, they mostly focused on the immediate preconditions of that event rather than on long-term historical processes. The shortcomings of this approach can be overcome if we draw on historical sociology. The article considers the prediction of disintegration of the USSR offered by Randall Collins and Johann Arnason’s analysis of the Soviet version of modernity. Both sociologists characterized the Soviet collapse in the context of long-term historical dynamics. While Collins’s approach demonstrates a peculiar geopolitical determinism, Arnason singles out various factors of the dynamics of the alternative version of modernity. In the first half of the 1990s, Arnason applied his model of imperial modernization to the Soviet system, but later emphasized the civilizational aspects of communist modernity. This can also be seen in his evaluation of the Soviet collapse. In the literature on Soviet collapse, a contrast between the USSR and China is often highlighted, with structural and particularly economic factors being commonly highlighted. In contrast, the article argues that—for a comprehensive understanding of transformation processes in China—we need to consider the cultural sphere by drawing on sociological civilizational analysis.

The Past Is Not What It Used to Be: Contemporary Myths, Cold War Nostalgia and Abandoned Soviet Nuclear Bases

This article delves into the contemporary social perception of the three abandoned Soviet Cold War tactical nuclear bases in Poland, focusing on often overlooked phenomena in archaeological studies such as the contemporary myths (folk tales, contemporary legends, modern folklore, etc.) and nostalgia that have emerged around these sites. While contemporary myths and nostalgia are distinct phenomena with different outcomes, they share a common feature: a mythologized approach to the past. Established historical and archaeological narratives, derived from detailed studies, often coexist with alternative versions of the past inspired by folk imagination. This article aims to highlight their cultural value as an integral part of local identity, actively shaping the perception of material heritage. Contemporary myths offer insight into another layer of collective perception of the past, while nostalgia delves into the emotional aspects of human existence, coping with transience and searching for meaning.

Under pressure: Care, capacity and organ donation

In this paper, I seek to theorise the concept of pressure in relation to families’ experiences of organ donation during COVID-19. Drawing on Australia-based fieldwork, I follow circuitries of pressure in and beyond interiorities of bodies, biographies and infrastructures of care to ask what happens when pressure builds to such an extent that there is no capacity left in bodies and in institutions. Pressure concentrates in some spaces and bodies more than others revealing uneven flows and restrictions to care. But how might a theorisation of pressure enable care to be imagined otherwise – to circulate differently? Extending recent care scholarship, I explore alternative versions of care enacted by families and clinicians involved in organ donation. This is an expansive and capacious care, which may offer potential to diffuse the force of pressure through radical interdependence.

Monsters or Victims An Ecocritical Reading of Samson and Sally and Dot and the Whale, Retellings of Moby Dick

The paper aims to explore two animations, Samson and Sally (1984) and Dot and the Whale (1986), through the lens of zoocriticism (Huggan and Tiffin) and ecocinematic analysis to show how the directors have presented the alternative version of Herman Melville’s Moby Dick in order to showcase the crises of cetaceans like whale in the present scenario of the global warming, pollution and various anthropogenic damages. Unlike many popular Hollywood movies, these two animated films do not portray whales as monsters. In many popular Hollywood ventures, we can see the representations of vengeful bloodthirsty sea creatures like sharks and whales causing shipwrecks and killing humans, just like Moby Dick did in Melville. However, Samson and Sally and Dot and the Whale propose a different version of Moby Dick, where Moby Dick is portrayed as a saviour of the whale race under the threats of whaling, oil spills, and rising temperature. Samson and Sally is a bildungsroman as it depicts the journey of a young whale in search of the mythical Moby Dick who can only save his clan from whalers who have killed his mother and other relatives. Dot and the Whale, on the other hand, points such issues like the beaching of whales and their exploitation for oil and other resources. These two animations have presented an accurate picture where animals are not presented as monsters but rather victims of human greed. Although these animations are in the anthropomorphised version, they are created to raise human awareness to protect cetaceans and marine life.

Reimagining National Parks for the Twenty-First Century: Lessons from Yosemite’s Past

Many critics of the global rise in conservation displacements have traced the origins of this trend to nineteenth-century California and the establishment of Yosemite National Park. This historical narrative is often labeled the Yosemite model, which is characterized by the violent eviction of Indigenous peoples to create unoccupied wilderness. I propose that the Yosemite model historical narrative overgeneralizes events and neglects the larger geo-historical context. Through a close reading of archival records, I recover countering voices and alternative versions that complicate the Yosemite model narrative. The central goal of this article is to locate evidence from Yosemite’s past that can aid in imagining a future parks model more inclusive of Indigenous heritage claims and rights. Throughout, I give close attention to decades of changing geo-historical context, which allows a clearer perspective on conservation enclosures while providing hope for a more inclusive future national park model.

Dual structure-aware image filterings for semi-supervised medical image segmentation

Semi-supervised image segmentation has attracted great attention recently. The key is how to leverage unlabeled images in the training process. Most methods maintain consistent predictions of the unlabeled images under variations (e.g., adding noise/perturbations, or creating alternative versions) in the image and/or model level. In most image-level variation, medical images often have prior structure information, which has not been well explored. In this paper, we propose novel dual structure-aware image filterings (DSAIF) as the image-level variations for semi-supervised medical image segmentation. Motivated by connected filtering that simplifies image via filtering in structure-aware tree-based image representation, we resort to the dual contrast invariant Max-tree and Min-tree representation. Specifically, we propose a novel connected filtering that removes topologically equivalent nodes (i.e. connected components) having no siblings in the Max/Min-tree. This results in two filtered images preserving topologically critical structure. Applying the proposed DSAIF to mutually supervised networks decreases the consensus of their erroneous predictions on unlabeled images. This helps to alleviate the confirmation bias issue of overfitting to noisy pseudo labels of unlabeled images, and thus effectively improves the segmentation performance. Extensive experimental results on three benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed method significantly/consistently outperforms some state-of-the-art methods. The source codes will be publicly available.

Neither Populist nor Neoclassical: The Classical Roots of the Competition Principle in American Antitrust Law

Contemporary critics of American antitrust law lament a supposed misinterpretation by modern, welfare-driven enforcers of the true meaning of the competition principle. This essay contributes to the debate by reconstructing the principle's historical origin. While it did not feature in the Sherman Act, the competition principle was introduced by the Supreme Court during the early years of antitrust law. The court formulated alternative versions of the principle; the one that eventually prevailed was neither populist nor neoclassical, as it was based on classical political economy and, in particular, on freedom of contract and “natural” values. This historical circumstance may pave the way for a new approach to antitrust law.

Implementing falls prevention patient education in hospitals - older people’s views on barriers and enablers

BackgroundWorld falls guidelines recommend that hospitalised older patients receive individualised falls prevention education, yet no studies have sought older people’s feedback on how best to deliver falls prevention education in hospitals. The objective of the study was to explore the perspectives of older people and their caregivers about barriers and enablers to implementation of a tailored hospital falls education program.MethodsA qualitative descriptive design was used. Three focus groups and 16 semi-structured interviews were conducted. A purposive sample of older people who had previous hospital admissions and caregivers of older people were selected to review a co-designed patient falls education program (the revised Safe Recovery program). They provided feedback on how to implement the program in hospital settings. Data were thematically analysed taking an deductive-inductive approach.ResultsParticipants were 37 older people [female n = 24 (64.9%), age range 64 to 89 years] and nine caregivers (female n = 8). The first theme was that the Safe Recovery Program resources were of high quality, enabling strong patient engagement and increased knowledge and awareness about falls prevention in hospitals. The second theme identified practical strategies to enable program delivery in hospital wards. The key enablers identified were: timing of delivery around wellness and the patient’s mobility; tailoring messages for each older patient; key staff members being assigned to lead program delivery. Participants recommended that staff assist older patients to set appropriate behavioural goals in relation to preventing falls in hospitals. They also recommended that staff raise older patients’ confidence and motivation to take action to reduce the risk of falls. Providing resources in other languages and alternative shorter versions was recommended to enable broad dissemination.ConclusionsOlder people and their caregivers advised that implementing falls education in hospitals can be enabled by using high quality resources, delivering falls education in a timely manner and personalising the education and support to individual needs.

«А нашему-то брату еще лучше, пускай три, пять храмов будет!»: Никольские храмы Медногорска

The article is based on field material collected in Mednogorsk (Orenburg region) in December 2021. It is dedicated to the study of the interactions between the religious and cultural landscapes of the city. A distinctive feature of industrial Mednogorsk, founded during the era of industrialization, is its “church history” of the Soviet era. An constant element of this history was the life of the parish, which since 1943 took place in a prayer house later converted into the church of St. Nicholas the Wonderworker. The decades-long existence of the so-called “old St. Nicholas Church” in the city havs led to the enrichment and complication of the religious landscape, which includes hidden public practices of faith protection and places of prayer. The latter include an episode of collective protection of the church from destruction in 1961 and the book by Vera Popova, who became recognized in the city as the “historian of the temple” from among the oldest parishioners. The article provides a comparative analysis of the oral and written versions of the history of St. Nicholas Church. In 2007, the new Church of St. Nicholas the Wonderworker was consecrated in Mednogorsk. The authors analyze the distribution of functions between the two St. Nicholas churches in the small town in the post-Soviet period. The conclusion is drawn about the interpenetration of the historical, cultural and religious heritage of the city, which originated as a settlement near a copper-sulfur plant. Additionally, it is suggested that the church component of Mednogorsk’s history allows for the interpretation of its Soviet period as an alternative version of Soviet industrialization in a small factory town.

A general problem-solving matrix (GPSM): combining crime prevention and public health tools

Crime involves different individuals interacting in complex social and physical settings. Often, crime problem solvers reach for a common generic response, when they need to consider a number of possible solutions. Thinking tools can help. In this article, we show how uniting an injury prevention tool—the Haddon Matrix used widely in public health—and a crime prevention tool—the crime problem triangle used widely in policing—can provide guidance to crime problem solvers. We call our hybrid the General Problem-Solving Matrix (GPSM). We apply GPSM to rape and burglary to illustrates its features. We conclude the article by examining the alternative versions of GPSM in crime prevention.

Moriviví, and: When He Leaves, and: Reunion

Abstract: “Moriviví”: The speaker considers his parents’ immigration from the Dominican Republic to the United States, and what his life could have been if he were not born in the U.S. He addresses this alternate version of himself as ghost, mirror, memory, and brother. “When He Leaves”: A reflection on the speaker’s damaging sexual experiences with men. He considers his own condition in the aftermath of two failed attempts at queer love: abandoned, exposed, and wanting. “Reunion”: A nocturne in which a drunken speaker reckons with mortality, the bittersweet nature of memory, and being away from home as the sun goes down and stars appear.

The Theory of Relativity (K)

The proposed article is a new alternative version of the Theory of Relativity. The version is based on the concepts of classical Newtonian physics and does not deny the existing calculation base. The proposed theory completely denies Einstein's existing Theory of Relativity. The only thing that connects these theories is that the proposed theory is also built on postulates. The proposed theory is intended to establish the foundation of classical Newtonian physics. The proposed theory is intended to establish continuity in the development of the fundamentals of physics and is intended to eliminate all kinds of speculation in explanations of physical phenomena. An example of such speculation is Einstein's Theory of Relativity (E).

Testing the validity of the Norwegian translation of the modified weight bias internalization scale

BackgroundIndividuals with higher weight (overweight or obesity) may experience social stigma due to their weight. Weight stigma can be internalized with adverse health effects. Internalized weight stigma is relevant across different weight categories, but no validated weight-neutral measure of internalized weight bias currently exists in Norway. The current study aimed to examine the validity of a Norwegian translation of the Modified Weight Bias Internalization Scale.MethodsA Norwegian translation of the Modified Weight Bias Internalization Scale (WBIS-M) was administered in an adult Norwegian sample (N = 315, of which 251 women) ranging from self-reported “very underweight” to “very overweight”.ResultsA confirmatory factor analysis was conducted on 11 of the original 11 items in the WBIS-M. Based on previous factor analyses with this scale, we expected a one-factor model. One of the items related to competence showed poor model fit, and concern was raised around possible item ambiguity partway through the study. Two versions of this item were therefore tested, neither of which yielded an acceptable fit. After exclusion of this item, the results showed high loadings for the remaining 10 items on one factor with a high internal consistency (α = 0.94). Convergent validity was approached by looking at the relationship between answers on the WBIS-M, self-perceived weight, and items on overall health and psychological/emotional state.ConclusionThe 10-item Norwegian version of the WBIS-M shows sound psychometric properties and can be used to measure internalized weight bias in a weight-neutral fashion in a Norwegian-speaking population. Internalized weight bias was correlated with psychological/emotional state and overall health, with those reporting more internalized weight bias also reporting that they felt worse. This relationship was stronger for women than men in our sample and was partially dependent on weight. The women also showed higher internalized weight bias than the men. Future studies should include more male participants and explore alternative versions of the missing item related to competence.

Assessing the predictive validity of expectancy theory for academic performance

BackgroundDespite expectancy theory’s widespread appeal and influence as a framework for motivation in organizational and educational settings, studies that have examined the theory’s validity for performance-based outcomes, particularly with academic performance as the criterion, have been characterized by inconsistent results. Given numerous methodological concerns associated with past studies (e.g., prevalence of between-person rather than within-person design), we examined the predictive validity of expectancy theory for academic performance using methods that were consistent with the theory’s original conceptualization. Additionally, we assessed the validity of the theory for students’ study effort.MethodsThe final sample included 123 undergraduate students who reported their final grades in four courses. Study effort and other variables were measured with self-report surveys. Because course grades were nested within each person, multilevel modeling was used to test study hypotheses.ResultsBoth the valence model and the force model predicted a student’s current study effort, but contrary to expectations, neither model predicted a student’s final course grades. In contrast, both valence for academic success and the simplified force model (based only on valence and expectancy) predicted current study effort, final course grades, and explained incremental variance beyond cognitive ability. Furthermore, the predictive validity of this force model was relatively stable across the 11 weeks of the study.ConclusionsBased on methods congruent with expectancy theory’s original framework, we find that the force model does not predict academic performance. An alternative version of the model, however, predicts course grades and has incremental validity over cognitive ability. Our results have several significant theoretical and practical implications.