In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and Community Multiscale Air Quality–Integrated Source Apportionment Method (CMAQ–ISAM) were utilized, which were integrated with the Multiresolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC) emission inventory, to simulate winter PM2.5 concentrations, regional transport, and changes in emission source contributions in the Sichuan basin (SCB) from 2002 to 2020, considering variations in meteorological conditions and anthropogenic emissions. The results indicated a gradual decrease in the basin's winter average PM2.5 concentration from 300 μg/m3 to 120 μg/m3, with the most significant decrease occurring after 2014, reflecting the actual impact of China's air pollution control measures. Spatially, the main pollution area shifted from Chongqing to Chengdu and the western basin. The sources of PM2.5 at the eastern and western margins of the basin have remained stable and have been dominated by local emissions for many years, while the sources of PM2.5 in the central part of the basin have evolved from a multiregional co-influenced source during the early period to a high proportion of local emissions; except for boundary condition sources, residential sources were the main PM2.5 sources in the basin (approximately 29.70 %), followed by industrial sources (approximately 14.11 %). Industrial sources exhibited higher contributions in Chengdu and Chongqing and gradually stabilized with residential sources over the years, while residential sources dominated in the eastern and western parts of the basin and exhibited a declining trend. Meteorological conditions exacerbated pollution in the whole basin from 2008 to 2014, especially in the west (21–40 μg/m3). The eastern basin and Chongqing exhibited more years with alleviated meteorological pollution, including a 40+ μg/m3 decrease in Chongqing from 2002 to 2005. Reduced anthropogenic emissions alleviated annual pollution levels, with a greater reduction (> −20 μg/m3) after 2011 due to pollution control measures.