Aid Volatility Research Articles

Fiscal Policy Response to Scaled-Up Aid

Sound fiscal policies are critical for handling aid volatility as well as for making effective use of scaled-up aid and other flows. By easing resource constraints, these flows allow low-income countries (LICs) to increase spending aimed at enhancing growth and reducing poverty. Effective management of these policies, however, presents a host of macroeconomic challenges, many of them fiscal.

Resource Augmentation for Meeting the Millennium Development Goals in the Asia Pacific Region

This paper examines whether the resource positions of the developing counties in the Asia Pacific region and the support they are receiving from donor countries are adequate to ensure that the MDG will be attained by 2015. It begins by examining the extant record of economic growth and emphasises the need for higher economic growth in order to accelerate the pace of poverty reduction. It argues that neither the level of economic growth nor its current structure can ensure that MDG1 is attained by 2015. The paper argues that domestic savings and investment rates in most large developing countries in the Asia Pacific region are not high enough for growth rates to rise high enough to ensure that MDG1 (halving poverty measured at $1 PPP per capita over the period 1990-2015) is attained. Further, the ICOR in most of these countries has been stagnant or rising in many of these countries so that it would be unrealistic to expect sharp enough rises in the productivity of capital to ensure that existing investment rates can ensure that MDG1 is attained by 2015. The paper then examines some of the reasons for this lacklustre performance. Tax revenues have been stagnant and public expenditures on education and health have been low whereas many developing countries in the Asia Pacific region bear substantial burdens of debt servicing. Many of these countries also face considerable capital flight, exacerbating already tentative external situations. Furthermore whereas the current outlook for FDI looks promising for some Asian countries, international aid has been stagnant and in, many cases, net financial flows into developing countries has been negative. The paper then considers avenues for increasing the resource base for these counties. It considers a variety of measures including tax reform and expenditure switching policies. It advances policies to reduce capital flight and argues that international debt reduction should accompany any policy to increase international aid to the developing countries of the Asia Pacific region. It lists a number of additional sources of multilateral aid that could replenish developing country resources but argues that measures to increase the absorptive capacity of developing countries as well as reduction in the volatility of aid must accompany to increase international aid. Further, increases in international aid should ensure that the real exchange rates of the recipient countries should not rise. If the real exchange rates were to rise, some of these countries could be exposed to Dutch disease type of phenomena.

La vulnérabilité macroéconomique des pays à faible revenu et les réponses de l'aide

Résumé La vulnérabilité macroéconomique des pays à faible revenu est analysée comme le risque de voir leur développement entravé par les chocs auxquels ils font face, chocs naturels et chocs externes. La vulnérabilité structurelle résulte principalement de l’ampleur des chocs et de l’exposition aux chocs, tandis que la vulnérabilité générale dépend aussi de la résilience, déterminée principalement par la politique. Nous expliquons d’abord comment la vulnérabilité affecte la croissance et le développement en considérant quatre aspects principaux des effets de l’instabilité. Les effets ex post sont au moins aussi importants que les effets ex ante ou effets liés au risque. L’instabilité affecte plus la croissance de la productivité des facteurs que le taux d’investissement. Les instabilités primaires ou exogènes réduisent la croissance à travers des instabilités intermédiaires liées à la politique économique. L’instabilité accroît le niveau de pauvreté (et la mortalité infanto-juvénile), au-delà de ses effets sur le taux de croissance. Deuxièmement, nous examinons comment une mesure synthétique de la vulnérabilité structurelle peut être obtenue avec un indice de vulnérabilité économique (Economic Vulnerability Index : EVI), comme celui mis au point par les Nations Unies. Les composantes d’un tel indice doivent refléter à la fois l’ampleur des chocs naturels et des chocs externes et l’exposition à ces chocs. Elles pourraient être agrégées de façon à prendre en compte l’interaction entre les chocs et l’exposition. La dernière partie envisage les implications de la vulnérabilité macroéconomique des pays à faible revenu pour les politiques de l’aide. Elle repose sur l’idée que l’aide atténue les conséquences de la vulnérabilité (c’est-à-dire que la vulnérabilité augmente l’efficacité de l’aide) et que la question de la volatilité de l’aide doit ainsi être réexaminée. Trois réponses de l’aide sont envisagées. La vulnérabilité (EVI) peut être utilisée comme critère d’allocation de l’aide. L’aide peut être conçue comme une assurance, si elle peut être décaissée rapidement et efficacement. Enfin, l’utilisation de l’aide peut être en partie ciblée sur la réduction de la vulnérabilité à long terme.

Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?

The positive impact of foreign aid is limited by the erratic behavior of aid flows. The introduction in 1999 of various initiatives anchored in Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) which were aimed at strengthening coordination among donors, improving the design of financial support programs, and improving domestic records of policy implementation should have led to an improvement in the time series properties of aid flows. We find no evidence of any fundamental changes in the way aid has been delivered in the past five years. If anything, aid volatility has worsened somewhat and the information value of long-term lending commitments has declined. We take these results to mean that the main causes of the volatility and unpredictability of aid, and the broader issue of macroeconomic instability in low-income countries, have not been addressed in a systematic manner by the donor community.

Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan Into the Fire?

The positive impact of foreign aid is limited by the erratic behavior of aid flows. The introduction in 1999 of various initiatives anchored in Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) which were aimed at strengthening coordination among donors, improving the design of financial support programs, and improving domestic records of policy implementation should have led to an improvement in the time series properties of aid flows. We find no evidence of any fundamental changes in the way aid has been delivered in the past five years. If anything, aid volatility has worsened somewhat and the information value of long-term lending commitments has declined. We take these results to mean that the main causes of the volatility and unpredictability of aid, and the broader issue of macroeconomic instability in low-income countries, have not been addressed in a systematic manner by the donor community.

Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?

The positive impact of foreign aid is limited by the erratic behavior of aid flows. The introduction in 1999 of various initiatives anchored in Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) which were aimed at strengthening coordination among donors, improving the design of financial support programs, and improving domestic records of policy implementation should have led to an improvement in the time series properties of aid flows. We find no evidence of any fundamental changes in the way aid has been delivered in the past five years. If anything, aid volatility has worsened somewhat and the information value of long-term lending commitments has declined. We take these results to mean that the main causes of the volatility and unpredictability of aid, and the broader issue of macroeconomic instability in low-income countries, have not been addressed in a systematic manner by the donor community.

Aid Volatility and Dutch Disease: Is There a Role for Macroeconomic Policies?

This paper studies how macroeconomic policies can help offset two unintended and undesirable features of foreign aid: its volatility and Dutch disease. We present evidence that aid volatility augments trade balance volatility and that foreign aid, with the important exception of years of adverse shocks, depresses exports. We also find that these effects can be mitigated through changes in net domestic assets of the central bank-a variable that reflects both monetary and fiscal policy. To characterize the optimal policy, we develop a general equilibrium model in which the capital account is closed and aid influences productivity growth through positive (public expenditure) and negative (Dutch disease) externalities. In this setting, macroeconomic policies permanently affect real variables and can improve welfare if donors do not distribute foreign aid optimally over time.

Aid Volatility and Dutch Disease: Is there a Role for Macroeconomic Policies?

This paper studies how macroeconomic policies can help offset two unintended and undesirable features of foreign aid: its volatility and Dutch disease. We present evidence that aid volatility augments trade balance volatility and that foreign aid, with the important exception of years of adverse shocks, depresses exports. We also find that these effects can be mitigated through changes in net domestic assets of the central bank-a variable that reflects both monetary and fiscal policy. To characterize the optimal policy, we develop a general equilibrium model in which the capital account is closed and aid influences productivity growth through positive (public expenditure) and negative (Dutch disease) externalities. In this setting, macroeconomic policies permanently affect real variables and can improve welfare if donors do not distribute foreign aid optimally over time.

Pity the Finance Minister: Issues in Managing a Substantial Scaling-Up of Aid Flows

Substantially scaling up of aid flows will require development partners to address many issues, including the impact of higher aid flows on: the competitiveness of aid recipients; the management of fiscal and monetary policy; the delivery of public services; behavioral incentives; and the rate of growth of the economy. Other issues will include the appropriate sequencing of aid-financed investments; balancing alternative expenditure priorities; the implications for fiscal and budget sustainability; and exit strategies from donor funding. Donors will need to ensure greater long-term predictability and reduced short-term volatility of aid. The international financial institutions can play a critical role in helping countries address these scaling-up issues.

Foreign Aid, Institutions, and Governance in Sub‐Saharan Africa

Introduction More than a decade ago, the World Bank argued that “underlying the litany of Africa’s development problems is a crisis of governance.” Poor quality institutions, weak rule of law, an absence of accountability, tight controls over information, and high levels of corruption still characterize many African states today. Aid levels have been reduced in many parts of Africa during the past decade. Yet in many of the countries with poor governance records, aid continues to contribute a very high percentage of government budgets. This article explores the institutional impact of these high levels of aid and the way that large amounts of aid are delivered. There are many reasons why governance is poor in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Colonialism did little to develop strong, indigenously rooted institutions that could tackle the development demands of modern states. Economic crisis and unsustainable debt, civil wars, and political instability have all taken their toll over the past 2 decades and more. It is difficult to separate the impact of these problems from the possible impact of foreign aid, which is often high in countries that suffer from precisely these problems. Theory provides conflicting guidance here. On the one hand, aid can release governments from binding revenue constraints, enabling them to strengthen domestic institutions and pay higher salaries to civil servants. Aid can provide training and technical assistance to build legal systems and accounting offices. In many countries, aid personnel (sometimes expatriate) manage important government programs, and the infusion of resources and technical assistance can give an important boost to the efficiency and effectiveness of governance, if only in a partial sense. Yet despite these likely benefits, it is also possible that, continued over

Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment

This article examines empirical evidence on the volatility and uncertainty of aid flows and their main policy implications. Aid is found to be more volatile than fiscal revenues-particularly in highly aid-dependent countries-and shortfalls in aid and domestic revenue tend to coincide. The article also finds that uncertainty about aid disbursements is large and that the information content of commitments made by donors is either very small or statistically insignificant. Specific policies and broader international efforts to cope with these features of aid are briefly discussed.

How Volatile and Unpredictable Are Aid Flows, and What Are the Policy Implications?

This paper examines empirical evidence on the volatility and uncertainty of aid flows, and the main policy implications. Aid is found to be more volatile than fiscal revenues - particularly in highly aid-dependent countries - and mildly pro-cyclical in relation to activity in the recipient country. These findings imply that the current pattern of aid disbursements is welfare reducing. We also find that uncertainty about aid disbursements is large and that the information content of commitments made by donors is either very small or statistically insignificant. Policies to cope with these features of aid, as well as broader international efforts to reduce the volatility and pro-cyclicality of aid, are briefly discussed.

How Volatile and Unpredictable Are Aid Flows, and What Are the Policy Implications?

This paper examines empirical evidence on the volatility and uncertainty of aid flows, and the main policy implications. Aid is found to be more volatile than fiscal revenues- particularly in highly aid-dependent countries-and mildly procyclical in relation to activity in the recipient country. These findings imply that the current pattern of aid disbursements is welfare-reducing. We also find that uncertainty about aid disbursements is large and that the information content of commitments made by donors is either very small or statistically insignificant. Policies to cope with these features of aid, as well as broader international efforts to reduce the volatility and procyclicality of aid, are briefly discussed.

How Volatile and Unpredictable are Aid Flows, and What are the Policy Implications?

This paper examines empirical evidence on the volatility and uncertainty of aid flows, and the main policy implications. Aid is found to be more volatile than fiscal revenues- particularly in highly aid-dependent countries-and mildly procyclical in relation to activity in the recipient country. These findings imply that the current pattern of aid disbursements is welfare-reducing. We also find that uncertainty about aid disbursements is large and that the information content of commitments made by donors is either very small or statistically insignificant. Policies to cope with these features of aid, as well as broader international efforts to reduce the volatility and procyclicality of aid, are briefly discussed.

The Development of National Agricultural Research Capacity: India's Experience with the Rockefeller Foundation and Its Significance for Africa

Technical change is one of the critical elements that determine the pace of agricultural growth in developing countries. International agricultural research centers currently initiate much of the scientific work necessary for technical change, but individual countries also need to be able to identify what is relevant in the existing stock of international knowledge, to conduct adaptive research and farm-level tests, and thus to tailor techniques discovered in the laboratory to the specific requirements of different farming locations.1 These functions require investments in national scientific and technical institutions. The public sector is heavily involved in this enterprise because agricultural research requires lumpy investments, involves externalities, gives rise to public goods, and is subject to long gestation lags. As a measure of the scale of the effort of multilateral and bilateral official donors in supporting farm technology development at the national and international levels, the Consultative Group on International Agriculture Research (CGIAR) spent $163 million worldwide in 1985.2 Despite these expenditures, the process by which countries develop their own agricultural research capacity is little understood, as are the links in the long chain of research, experimentation, adaptation, and dissemination of technology. The theory of induced innovation, for instance, which explains technical change and institutional innovation as the result of relative factor scarcities, tends to treat as a "black box" the process of national capacity-building.3 Others have postulated that the demand for technical change reflects pressures from interest groups, but this approach has limited value as an explanation