Agricultural Trade Research Articles

How e-commerce can boost China’s high-quality agricultural exports

IntroductionExport quality improvement is a crucial path for a country or region to climb up the advanced division of labor in the global value chain. For developing countries that have long been at the lower end of the global value chain division of labor, the dominance of agricultural trade is often controlled by international retailers, leading to higher costs of agricultural trade and hindering the upgrading of the quality of agricultural exports. As a traditional agricultural exporting country, China still needs a competitive advantage despite the large scale of its agricultural exports. Currently, e-commerce can provide buyers and sellers with comprehensive transaction information and technical support, allowing them to realize rational allocation of resources and export upgrading. Therefore, studying how e-commerce can promote the quality upgrade of agricultural exports is crucial for China to build a trade power.MethodsThis paper clarifies the mechanism of e-commerce’s theoretical impact on the quality of agricultural exports and then empirically tests it using a high-dimensional fixed-effects model with Chinese customs data from 2000 to 2020 as a sample.ResultsThe results show that e-commerce significantly promotes the quality of agricultural exports in all regions of China, and this conclusion still holds after various robustness tests; the heterogeneity test shows that e-commerce fosters the quality of agricultural exports in eastern China, densely populated regions, and economically underdeveloped regions, especially in the case of heterogeneous products; the mechanism analysis confirms that e-commerce promotes the quality of agricultural exports mainly through the optimization of the agricultural industry chain and supply chain, and the enhancement of the level of servicing. Mechanism analysis confirms that e-commerce improves agricultural export quality mainly through optimizing the agricultural industry chain and supply chain, improving the level of servitization, and docking the demand information of the consumer market, etc. Expanded analysis shows that constructing cross-border e-commerce platforms also significantly improves the quality of micro enterprises’ agricultural exports. This paper enriches the research on e-commerce and agricultural trade.DiscussionThis paper provides an essential reference for constructing a robust agricultural trade country and developing high-quality agriculture. Despite encompassing data up to 2020, in the context of today’s global economic volatility directly affecting agricultural trade, future investigations will broaden the scope to delve deeper into how e-commerce can help countries cope with global economic uncertainty.

Economic sanctions and agricultural trade

AbstractEconomic sanctions are more popular than ever. But do they affect agricultural trade? Combining two new datasets and capitalizing on the latest developments in the empirical structural gravity literature, we investigate the effects of sanctions on international trade of agricultural products. We find that trade sanctions impede agricultural trade, whereas other sanctions do not show any significant impact. Complete trade sanctions have led to about a 67% decrease in the agricultural trade between the sanctioned and sanctioning countries, or a corresponding tariff equivalent of 25%, and we also obtain significant estimates for partial sanctions. At the industry level, we find substantial heterogeneity depending on the sanctioning and sanctioned countries, the type of sanctions used, and the direction of trade flows. The 2014 sanctions on Russia substantially decreased Russia's agricultural trade, mainly due to reduced trade with the EU but also due to reduced trade with other countries. Although no definitive evidence exists that sanctions alter the actions of governments of receiving countries, this paper provides broad evidence that sanctions hamper agrifood trade and hurt producers, consumers, and real output.

Landscape-Scale Biodiversity Impacts Analysis of Côte d'Ivoire's Cocoa Cultivation along Export Supply Chains.

Agricultural land use for export commodities leads to significant biodiversity impacts. A spatially detailed assessment of these impacts is crucial for implementing effective mitigation policies. Using cocoa cultivation and exports in Côte d'Ivoire as an example, we present a novel framework that combines earth observations, enhanced landscape-scale biodiversity models, and subnational export supply chain data sets to track the tele-connected potential biodiversity impacts of export groups and importing countries. We found that cocoa cultivation accounts for ∼44% of the biodiversity impacts in Côte d'Ivoire's cocoa cultivation areas, with >90% attributable to cocoa exports. The top 10 importing countries account for ∼84% of these impacts. Our method offers improved spatial detail compared to the existing approaches, facilitating the identification of biodiversity impact hotspots. Additionally, the biodiversity impacts of agroforestry cocoa are not always lower compared to full-sun cocoa, especially when agroforestry systems are established in regions of high biodiversity importance. Our transferable framework provides a comprehensive understanding of biodiversity footprint and promotes informed decision-making for sustainable agricultural production, processing, and trade. Our framework's application is currently constrained by the scarcity of detailed supply chain data sets; we underscore the urgent need for improved supply chain transparency to fully unlock the framework's potential.

Does the World Trade Organization Enable Biosecurity and Trade for Importers and Exporters?

Abstract Our paper sheds light on Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) cooperation among trading countries. We contribute to the existing literature a data-driven analysis on the effectiveness of various forms (in monetary value, duration, and diversification) of SPS related technical assistance received by 33 countries from 1993 to 2015. The World Trade Organization's (WTO's) SPS Agreement encourages biosecurity for countries through technical assistance, to safeguard human health and productivity from contamination by biological hazards (pests, pathogens, or invasive species). Our panel model finds that WTO's SPS program encourages simultaneously agricultural trade and biosecurity. We implement a Multiple Indicator Solution (MIS) to correct bias from the endogenous technical assistance. The effectiveness of technical assistance depends on geography and the level of development among the heterogeneous countries referred to in our data. This investment in biosecurity benefits both donors and recipients of technical assistance. Based on our results donors should be encouraged to invest in countries with below average resources and abilities.

Use of SWOT analysis to select feasible businesses as the mainstay business of BUMDes and MSMEs

COVID-19 pandemic, which lasted from 2020 to 2022, has affected the global economy. Activity restrictions had hampered the progress of various business sectors. As a result, there was a decline in economic growth globally. There was even an economic contraction of -13.7% in 2020 and many businesses experienced either setbacks or bankruptcies. Indonesia’s government made various recovery efforts, such as business assistance through village-owned enterprises (BUMDes) activities and capital assistance for MSMEs in the form of people’s business credit (Kredit Usaha Rakyat/KUR). Various trainings and assistance were conducted, but these activities focused more on reporting and administration of funds. The establishment of BUMDes mainly aims to improve the villages’ economy. The selection of BUMDes' mainstay business is highly important to realize the smooth running of the business chosen. For this reason, it is necessary to conduct training on how to select of the mainstay business and calculate the feasibility of the business chosen to be developed so that BUMDes and MSME actors can manage and develop their business properly. The selection can use SWOT analysis, namely by analyzing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of the potential business options. In this community services activity, BUMDes and MSME training was held in Bogorejo Village, Pesawaran Regency, Lampung Province. The results of SWOT analysis reveal that the feasible business options are digital financial services (BRI-Link), agricultural trading (waserda), and waste collection and waste bank. Waserda business aims to help market the local community's products. Waste management business economically generates small profits, but has long-term positive effects, both environmentally and socially. Meanwhile, tourism park and savings and loan are considered not feasible in the long-term, as these businesses are susceptible to bottlenecks and large losses so that they must be managed very carefully.

A Social Cognitive Career Theory Study of Agricultural Mechanical Trade Workers

Attracting and retaining skilled workers in agriculture is a global problem. Shortages of essential workers disrupt supplies of goods and services from the point of production on farms through manufacturing, transport, to ultimate consumption. The global pandemic’s effect on food supply was a salutary lesson in the effects of a diminished agricultural workforce. Agricultural mechanics are vital to productivity. The present research used the social cognitive career theory to explore agricultural mechanics’ careers. An exploratory qualitative study deployed interviews to collect data from N = 19 mechanical trade workers. Interviews were centered on participants’ descriptions of their work regarding theoretical constructs including self-efficacy, outcome expectations, satisfaction, dispositional traits, and contextual affordances. Reflective thematic analysis of the data produced concordance with key constructs of the social cognitive career theory sufficient to justify its utility for research with this specific agricultural occupation. This research makes an important contribution to the literature of vocational psychology which can and should contribute to solving the complex problem of supporting a workforce needed for agriculture’s ongoing challenge of feeding and clothing the world’s growing population.

Impact of tariff liberalization on economic and social benefits: Computable general equilibrium application to Kenya

AbstractThis study employed computable general equilibrium policy simulations to examine the impact of import tariff liberalization on socioeconomic outcomes including living standards, cost of living, gross domestic product (GDP) from expenditure, total investment expenditure, intermediate input demand, output, value‐added, tariff revenue, sales tax revenue, indirect tax revenue, direct income tax revenue, factor income tax revenue, and factor demand. Findings from the simulations have policy implications touching on a need to embrace reciprocal tariff liberalization under agreements like strategic trade and investment partnerships and economic partnership agreements as they are associated with welfare gains, reduction in cost of living, and GDP growth. Targeted policy incentives could be directed to specific domestic sectors since tariff liberalization has negative impacts on investment expenditure. Incentives regarding intermediate inputs should be directed to the manufacturing and services sectors for liberalization of agrifood commodities. Targeted policy incentives should be directed to the manufacturing and services sectors which experience decrease in output with tariff reductions. Liberalization of manufactured commodities should be accompanied by value‐added incentives directed to the agrifood and home production–home consumption sectors. For the liberalization of manufactured commodities, targeted policy incentives should be directed to the services sector which experiences job losses while for the liberalization of tariffs on imports of agrifood commodities, targeted policy incentives should be directed to the agrifood and the home production–home consumption sectors, which also lose jobs. These targeted policy incentives could support industrial activity and compensate for revenue loss, especially from customs duties.Related ArticlesGruber, Lloyd. 2013. “Trade, Growth, Poverty, and Politics: Toward a Unified Theory.” Politics & Policy 41(5): 723–64. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12034.Onyango, Gedion, and Japheth Otieno Ondiek. 2022. “Open Innovation During the COVID‐19 Pandemic Policy Responses in South Africa and Kenya.” Politics & Policy 50(5): 1008–31. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12490.Soto, Gloria. 2012. “Environmental Impact of Agricultural Trade Liberalization under NAFTA.” Politics & Policy 40(3): 471–91. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2012.00354.x.

Intra-Africa Agricultural Trade, Governance Quality and Agricultural Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from a Panel Vector Autoregressive Model

Intra-Africa Agricultural Trade, Governance Quality and Agricultural Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from a Panel Vector Autoregressive Model

Digital economy and China's agricultural exports: based on trade cost and market competition effect

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to explore the effect and mechanism of the digital economy’s influence on the binary margin of agricultural exports.Design/methodology/approachBased on the theoretical analysis of the mechanism of the digital economy’s influence on the binary margin of agricultural exports, this study empirically examines the effect and mechanism of the digital economy’s influence on the binary margin of agricultural exports based on China’s customs export data from 2011 to 2016.FindingsThe relevant findings are threefold. (1) The digital economy significantly improves the binary margin of agricultural exports, and its effect on the intensive margin is stronger than that on the expansive margin. After the expansive margin is subdivided, the effects on the three sub-variables of the expansive margin are in the following order: old products exported to new markets > new products exported to old markets > new products exported to new markets. (2) The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the digital economy has a stronger role in promoting the binary margin of exports for enterprises in the eastern region, high-income countries as the destination of exports and state-owned enterprises. (3) Mechanism analysis shows that the digital economy promotes the binary margin of agricultural exports by reducing trade costs and intensifying market competition.Originality/valueFirst, in terms of research perspective, although there are some studies on the impact of the digital economy on export trade in existing literature, the research objects mainly focus on manufacturing enterprises. In fact, agricultural trade is susceptible to natural conditions and seasonal factors, and countries may impose more SPS measures and TBT measures on agricultural trade due to risk considerations. The relationship between the digital economy and agricultural trade also has its own characteristics, but there are few research studies in this area. At present, only Liu and Gao (2022), based on the data of total imports and exports of different agricultural products from 2004 to 2018, have established a vector auto-regressive model to empirically analyse the heterogeneous dynamic impact of the digital economy on the trade volume of agricultural products. In addition, Ma and Guo (2023) conducted an empirical test on the total effect, regional heterogeneity and threshold effect of the digital economy on agricultural export trade based on China’s provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020. Therefore, under the new circumstances of continuous integration of digital technology and agriculture, this study interprets the impact effect and mechanism of the digital economy on the binary margin of agricultural exports from the perspective of the digital economy, providing new research perspectives and approaches for promoting the growth of agricultural exports. Second, in terms of theoretical analysis, the above studies have not been fully analysed in terms of the specific mechanism of the impact of the digital economy on agricultural exports. Based on the positive and negative characteristics of agricultural trade, this study introduces two kinds of roles into the theoretical analysis framework to comprehensively determine the trade impact effect of the digital economy. Third, in terms of research design, this study empirically examines the impact of the digital economy on the binary margin of agricultural products, passing a series of robustness tests and investigating the mediating roles of trade cost and market competition effects, producing an empirical basis for China to leverage the digital economy to promote the binary margin of agricultural exports.

Research on Export Flow and Potential of Agricultural Products in China Based on Machine Learning Algorithm

The MLR (multiple linear regression) method in machine learning algorithm is a comprehensive method to study the correlation of variables, and it is also an important measure to study the relationship between variables by using linear fitting method. By combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, this paper will use MLR model to make an empirical analysis of the determinants of agricultural trade flow, and use the estimated parameters to calculate the agricultural trade potential of China. The results show that the economic scale and distance have an important influence on the export flow of agricultural products in China, indicating that the economic scale is an important factor affecting the export flow of agricultural products. Regional trade arrangements have dual effects of trade transfer and trade creation, and free trade arrangements have created favorable conditions for trade expansion between countries with different demand and income levels. China's exports to Russia, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia are in a state of deficiency, and there is still potential for developing agricultural products exports to these countries.

乡村振兴战略下农产品跨境电商赋能乡村特色产业的研究

China is an agriculture-based country with vast rural areas, a wealth of agricultural products, and a large market. Cross-border e-commerce offers support for the export of agricultural products, which can break through the limitations of time and space, shorten the trade process of agricultural products, enhance the export efficiency of agricultural products, stabilize agricultural product trade, and promote the transformation and upgrading of China’s e-commerce. It also aids in the construction of a long-term mechanism for e-commerce poverty alleviation and agricultural revitalization. However, research has found that despite the rapid development of China’s crossborder e-commerce for agricultural products, there are still some issues, such as non-uniform quality standards for export agricultural products, information asymmetry, an inadequate cross-national logistics system and level of logistics technology, low levels of after-sales service, and a lack of corresponding professional and technical personnel. To address these issues, this article first introduces the current situation of China’s agricultural product export via cross-border e-commerce, then analyzes the development opportunities, and finally proposes the following solutions: aligning with international standards by establishing strict quality control mechanisms; creating a favorable policy environment, including policy support, resource allocation, and organizational guarantees; continuously improving product quality; focusing on the training of professional talent; and strengthening quality supervision and risk prevention. The aim is to promote the development of cross-border ecommerce for agricultural products, empower rural specialty industries, and support the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy.

SWOT Analysis and Recommendations for Enhancing Sino-Russian Agricultural Trade Cooperation

With the outbreak of the Russian–Ukraine conflict, the changes in agricultural trade between China and Russia are receiving more and more attention. This study analyzes the current status of Sino-Russian agricultural trade and employs a SWOT analysis to explore the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats within their agricultural trading activities. The findings suggest there are opportunities for further optimization and enhancement in the Sino-Russian agricultural trade. Based on this, suggestions proposed include accelerating the development of transportation hubs, facilitating agricultural trade, refining legal frameworks for agricultural exports, and expediting the establishment of economic cooperation zones.

Determining Small Towns’ Status Based on Their Basic Public Service Level. The Case of Mongolia

Small towns are widely recognized as key drivers in rural sustainable development, primarily by offering essential public services to residents in remote areas, thereby playing a pivotal role in promoting rural sustainability. Research endeavors focusing on small towns and rural regions of Mongolia are infrequent, with the majority of existing studies and reports predominantly rendered in the national language. This linguistic barrier significantly impedes the facilitation of international-level research in these areas. The current study is designed to address this gap by conducting a detailed analysis aimed at identifying small towns within local administrative units. This identification is predicated on an evaluation of their essential functions and activities, utilizing national statistical data from 21 provinces across Mongolia. The approach is geared towards understanding the unique characteristics and roles of these towns within the broader context of rural development and governance. The results show that soum centers are the main destination for access to daily necessities, agricultural trades, non-farm employment, basic education, and minor medical treatment for remote rural residents and serve as small towns. The varied functions of small towns are influenced by socioeconomic factors, urban proximity, and infrastructure. The research findings will enhance our knowledge of the functions of small towns within the rural hierarchy in Mongolia.

Agricultural carbon reduction in China: The synergy effect of trade and technology on sustainable development

The control of carbon emissions from agriculture is imperative in addressing the challenges posed by the greenhouse effect. China must develop a specific pathway for reducing its agricultural carbon emissions, accounting for its unique circumstances and considering the impacts of trade liberalization. (1) The study revealing that agricultural trade liberalization (ATL) has a marked effect on lowering China's agricultural carbon emission intensity (ACEI), with robustness and endogeneity tests supporting these findings. (2) In the pursuit of emissions reduction, the crucial role of technology spillovers (TS) and the optimization of industrial structure (OIS) are essential. (3) The reduction in ACEI is particularly notable in coastal regions, areas with low environmental regulations and during periods characterized by more stable agricultural tariffs. This study shows a synergistic association between ATL and ACEI, indicates the potential for a mutually beneficial situation with advantages in both economic and environmental aspects.

Analysis of the competitiveness and complementarity of China-Vietnam bilateral agricultural commodity trade.

Vietnam's agricultural exports to China have remained strong, with the country maintaining its position as the top destination for Agri-products. This article primarily utilizes the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) Index, and Trade Complementarity (TC) index to examine the trade comparative advantage, and the complementary of twenty major agricultural products between China and Vietnam from 2012 to 2021. The study results showed that Vietnam and China frequently exchange agricultural products. Vietnam has more stronger competitiveness than China in terms of agricultural products. China's exports to Vietnam were highly complementary to Vietnam's imports in category 0 whiles Vietnam's exports to China showed strong complementarity with China's imports in category 2. This paper analyzes the complementarity and comparative advantages of agricultural trade between China and Vietnam, and proposes informed suggestions for policy-making to promote agricultural trade between the countries. The proposed suggestions aim to expand agricultural trade between the two countries, reduce the trade imbalance, and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.

Mine clearance, peacebuilding and development: interactions between sustainable development goals and infrastructure in Angola

ABSTRACT In this article, we analyse the interaction between anti-vehicle mine (AVM) clearance and longer-term peacebuilding and development in relation to agricultural, conservation, trade, and infrastructural development priorities in the provinces of Cuando Cubango and Huambo in Angola. AVM clearance has not always been prioritised in the humanitarian mine clearance phase but is critical in later developmental stages due to the increased need for and use of infrastructure. To investigate the interaction between clearance, peacebuilding and development outcomes, we deploy the Mine Clearance and Peacebuilding Synergies (MPS) framework. Our critical analysis of qualitative primary data demonstrates how clearance engages Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and infrastructure priorities towards improvements in agricultural production, trade and access to markets, social and physical infrastructure and social cohesion. But its impacts are challenged by endogenous factors such as wider infrastructural investment and exogenous factors including environmental and climate change concerns.

Enhancing agricultural product trade efficiency through machine learning predictions and multi-objective optimization of financial strategies

In the context of global economic development and food safety, agricultural trade plays a vital role in linking agricultural production with market demand, and the efficient formulation of agricultural financial strategies is crucial for enhancing trade efficiency. This study employs advanced machine learning technologies to predict and optimize the efficiency of agricultural trade while seeking to balance the interests of various stakeholders in agricultural finance. By integrating quantile factor models, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, and attention mechanisms, this paper conducts an in-depth analysis and precise prediction of the key factors affecting trade efficiency. This approach effectively addresses the nonlinearity and long-term dependency issues in time-series data, utilizing attention mechanisms to highlight critical information and improve prediction accuracy. Furthermore, this research establishes a multi-objective optimization model to balance the interests of agricultural finance participants, providing a new quantitative tool for formulating agricultural financial strategies aimed at optimizing decisions to enhance economic and social value. This paper offers new perspectives, methods, and empirical support for improving the efficiency of agricultural trade and the formulation of agricultural financial strategies.

Natural disasters and agricultural trade in China: analyzing the role of transportation, government and diplomacy

PurposeNatural disasters profoundly influence agricultural trade sustainability. This study investigates the effects of natural disasters on agricultural production imports in China within 2002 and 2018. This exploration estimates the mediating role of transportation infrastructure and agriculture value-added and the moderating role of government effectiveness and diplomatic relations.Design/methodology/approachThis investigation uses Probit, Logit, Cloglog and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models.FindingsThe results confirm the mediating role of transportation infrastructure and agriculture value-added and the moderating role of government effectiveness and diplomatic relations in China. According to the findings, natural disasters in trading partners heighten the risk to the agricultural imports. This risk raises, if disasters damage overall agricultural yield or transportation infrastructure. Moreover, governments’ effective response or diplomatic ties with China mitigate the risk. Finally, the effect of disasters varies by the developmental status of the country involved, with events in developed nations posing a greater risk to China’s imports than those in developing nations.Originality/valueChina should devise an early warning system to protect its agricultural imports by using advanced technologies such as data analytics, remote sensing and artificial intelligence. In addition, it can leverage this system by improving its collaboration with trading partners, involvement in international forums and agreement for mutual support in crisis.

Viral Threats to Fruit and Vegetable Crops in the Caribbean.

Viruses pose major global challenges to crop production as infections reduce the yield and quality of harvested products, hinder germplasm exchange, increase financial inputs, and threaten food security. Small island or archipelago habitat conditions such as those in the Caribbean are particularly susceptible as the region is characterized by high rainfall and uniform, warm temperatures throughout the year. Moreover, Caribbean islands are continuously exposed to disease risks because of their location at the intersection of transcontinental trade between North and South America and their role as central hubs for regional and global agricultural commodity trade. This review provides a summary of virus disease epidemics that originated in the Caribbean and those that were introduced and spread throughout the islands. Epidemic-associated factors that impact disease development are also discussed. Understanding virus disease epidemiology, adoption of new diagnostic technologies, implementation of biosafety protocols, and widespread acceptance of biotechnology solutions to counter the effects of cultivar susceptibility remain important challenges to the region. Effective integrated disease management requires a comprehensive approach that should include upgraded phytosanitary measures and continuous surveillance with rapid and appropriate responses.

US-China trade friction and agricultural nitrogen loss in China

Agricultural production, trade and environmental quality are interdependent. The US and China have been the world largest trade partners. However, trade tensions and interest in protectionist policies intensified in recent years. We use a price endogenous partial equilibrium model to systematically examine the impact of increased Chinese tariff on agricultural imports from the US on nitrogen (N) loss in China. The results show that a 25% tariff on US soybean imports increases the acreage of major crops in China by 1.37%. Although aggregate crop acreage increases, the impact on cumulative nitrogen fertilizer uses and the corresponding N loss from cropland is not significant as less N-intensive soybean acreage replaces some of the more N-intensive crops like wheat. However, our estimates show significant heterogeneity in N loss across Chinese provinces, ranging from 0.05% to 2.97% increase. These results identify provinces where remediation measures may be needed to effectively manage the potential increase in nitrogen loss associated with greater soybean production.