Aggregate Emissions Research Articles

Regional industrial redistribution and carbon emissions: a dynamic analysis for China

ABSTRACT To facilitate and balance regional economic development and to reduce carbon emissions, China has implemented a series of policies to promote the redistribution of industries and economic activities across regions since 2000. This paper employs a logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) to analyse the dynamic net effect on carbon emissions of Chinese policies promoting economic redistribution across sub-national regions, using a panel data of five sectors in 30 provinces during 1995–2017. The results of our analysis show that the redistribution of industry in particular, but also business and construction activities, leads to an increase in CO2 emissions, while the relocation of agriculture and transportation activities reduces emissions. We also find that the emission increase effect of the transfer of carbon intensive industries to new (host) regions is higher than the emission reduction effect induced by the agglomeration of clean industries in the original (home) regions. However, from 2014–2017, alongside the gradual industrial redistribution, China has also reduced aggregate CO2 emissions by 58.6 MT. In addition, the results show that population migration, which is due to redistribution of industry and other economic activity, has caused higher emission increases than emission reductions due to redistribution policies. We further calculate the marginal effect of industrial redistribution on CO2 emissions and draw out relevant policy implications. Key policy insights Industrial (and other economic activity) redistribution within a county can be not only an economic policy, but also an important policy instrument to mitigate CO2 emissions. This is the case in China. In the process of regional industrial redistribution, policymakers should aim to reduce the emission increase effect of transfer of carbon-intensive industries to host regions and to raise the emission reduction effect induced by an agglomeration of clean industries in home regions. Industrial redistribution is usually a long-term strategy for regional development within a county, and any reduction effects on CO2 emissions are likely to need time to appear.

Contributions of cleaner production and end-of-pipe treatment to NOx emissions and intensity reductions in China, 1997–2018

The Chinese experience of economic development and environmental protection provides an important reference for developing countries. Although changes in aggregate NOx emissions have been widely studied, there is a relative lack of studies analysing NOx intensity changes and their related development strategies in China. This study attempts to identify the socioeconomic drivers and change patterns for both NOx emissions and intensity considering the cleaner production and end-of-pipe treatments. Both structural decomposition analysis and structural path analysis were used to analyse the NOx emissions/intensity changes at different levels and transmission layers in China in the last two decades (1997–2018). The results indicate that construction contributes the most to NOx emissions/intensity, followed by transportation. The emission intensity effect is the primary driver of NOx emissions/intensity reduction, which mainly benefits from end-of-pipe treatment and energy efficiency improvement. Especially, during 2012–2018, they decreased 11,916 Kt-NOx and 8,103 Kt-NOx emissions and aggregate embodied intensity by 43.2% and 29.8%, respectively. The final demand effect is the primary deterrent, which is attributed to investment and consumption effects. The critical sectors for future NOx reduction are the construction and building materials industry, transportation and other services industry. The policy implications and recommendations for the future developments are discussed based on the study findings.

The effects of urbanization, ICT, fertilizer usage, and foreign direct investment on carbon dioxide emissions in Ghana.

Rising levels of carbon dioxide emissions in emerging countries has become a concern to all and there are calls for urgent action to curtail this. Ghana's government has in recent times sought to achieve higher economic growth at a lower carbon emission rate. With the current development of the country, this study analyzed the effect of urbanization, fertilizer usage, foreign direct investment (FDI), and ICT development on carbon dioxide emissions in Ghana. Time series data for 1971-2018 period was analyzed using autoregressive distributed lag regression approach within the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) framework. From regression analysis, while the EKC hypothesis was not validated for aggregate carbon emissions, it was found that urbanization has a negative and significant impact on aggregate carbon emissions, whereas FDI and ICT infrastructure have positive impacts on the same in the both long run and short run. Fertilizer usage is seen to interact with urbanization to reduce carbon emissions at the aggregate and sectoral levels. It was found that although ICT helps reduce emissions at some sectoral levels, it was not enough to lower emissions at the aggregate level. Among other things, it is important for Ghana to take a critical assessment of its FDI sources and engagements to ensure that it does not become a sink for high toxic-emitting industries. Intensive education on efficient usage of fertilizer is also needed. It is important for policymakers to critically assess ways and means by which ICT development can be deployed to reduce overall carbon dioxide emissions in the country.

How collaboration with G7 countries drives environmental technology innovation in ten Newly Industrializing Countries

The development and deployment of environmental technologies (ETs) is critical to avert further environmental destruction, to significantly reduce emissions and to halt climate change. Innovation in ETs is particularly pertinent in newly industrializing countries (NICs), since they will soon overtake developed countries in terms of aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, but also have the economic strength required to scale up ETs rapidly. Even though NICs now supply a substantial share of low-carbon technologies, multilateral climate change policies continue to focus narrowly on technology transfer rather than collaboration and co-invention. In addition, G7 countries have vocalized their intention to collaborate with developing countries to innovate and diffuse ETs, suggesting that collaboration can be a key driver of developing country innovations. Against this background, we conduct an empirical analysis of ten NICs from 1990 to 2017 and demonstrate that technological collaboration with G7 countries significantly increases ET innovation in NICs.

Investigating renewable energy-climate change nexus by aggregate or sectoral renewable energy use?

Investigating the effect of renewable energy on the drivers of climate change correctly is significant as it is the basic source of climate change mitigation. In the extant literature, its effect on climate change has been estimated predominantly by regressing aggregate rather than sectoral renewable energy use either on aggregate greenhouse gas emissions or the components of greenhouse gases (GHGs) like carbon dioxide emissions. Against this backdrop, the paper investigates if we should estimate the nexus (i) by the causal effects running from aggregate or sectoral renewable energy use to GHG emissions and (ii) by the causal effects running from renewable energy consumption to aggregate GHG emissions or to its components like carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. To this end, the paper introduces negative and positive (functional) complementarity between sectoral renewable energy consumptions in reducing or increasing GHG emissions, takes 20 OECD countries from 1990 to 2019, and uses augmented and non-augmented auto-regressive distributed lag approach and vector error correction mechanism. The study finds substantial differences among the results coming out of (i) regressing aggregate and sectoral renewable energy consumption on GHG emissions and (ii) regressing renewable energy consumption on aggregate GHG emissions and on CO2 emissions. The paper suggests regressing sectoral rather than aggregate renewable energy consumption on the components of aggregate GHG emissions like CO2 emissions rather than on aggregate GHG emissions to produce workable, specific, and conclusive policy alternatives.

Substitution impacts of wood‐based textile fibers: Influence of market assumptions

AbstractWood products may help to avoid fossil emissions when they substitute for more fossil‐intensive products. However, the estimates of avoided fossil emissions attributed to wood use tend to be based on incomplete market assumptions. Wood products are assumed to fully substitute for non‐wood products, yet substitution rarely occurs 1:1 and wood products can also substitute for each other. This study outlines a systematic procedure grounded on economic theory for approximating the existence and rate of substitution between wood and non‐wood products, and calculates the marginal avoided fossil emissions with both conventional assumptions and more realistic assumptions based on an expert survey, taking the case of textile markets. The results suggest that regenerated cellulosic fibers (RCFs) are not perfect substitutes for synthetic fibers, meaning that part of an additional RCF supply will replace established textile fibers while part of it merely adds to the overall textile supply, and thereby aggregate fossil emissions. Moreover, in the long term, RCFs are more likely to substitute for synthetics than for cotton, and in the short term, non‐viscose RCFs are more likely to substitute for contemporary viscose than for polyester or cotton. In the specified case, the alteration of market assumptions leads to quadrupling the marginal substitution impacts of wood use. Besides the relatively high fossil intensity of contemporary viscose, this is partly explained by increased absolute aggregate fossil emissions. Producing a more realistic account of substitution processes in the forest products markets is central in directing investments that ensure a net reduction in fossil emissions.

Environmental justice and power plant emissions in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative states.

Policies to reduce greenhouse gases associated with electricity generation have been a major focus of public policy in the United States, but their implications for achieving environmental justice among historically overburdened communities inappropriately remains a marginal issue. In this study we address research gaps in historical and current ambient air emissions burdens in environmental justice communities from power plants participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gases Initiative (RGGI), the country's first market-based power sector emissions reduction program. We find that in RGGI states the percentage of people of color that live within 0-6.2 miles from power plants is up to 23.5 percent higher than the percent of the white population that lives within those same distance bands, and the percentage of people living in poverty that live within 0-5 miles from power plants is up to 15.3 percent higher than the percent of the population not living in poverty within those same distance bands. More importantly, the transition from coal to natural gas underway before RGGI formally started resulted in large increases in both the number of electric-generating units burning natural gas and total net generation from natural gas in environmental justice communities hosting electric-generating units, compared to other communities. Our findings indicate that power sector carbon mitigation policies' focusing on aggregate emissions reductions have largely benefitted non-environmental justice communities and have not redressed the fundamental problem of disparities in pollutant burdens between EJ and non-EJ communities. These must be directly addressed in climate change and carbon emissions mitigation policy.

The capital tax paradox in a greening economy

We adopt a simple model of endogenous growth with polluting capital and a fixed budget for aggregate emissions. Pollution abatement efficiency is growing over time due to technical progress. We find that long-run capital and consumption are inversely related to the initial capital stock. Capital taxation does not harm the economy but actually raises long-run consumption and production, which we call the “capital tax paradox.” The reason for this surprising result is that in an economy with a binding carbon policy, early abundance of polluting capital is not a blessing but a curse. It is preferable to have a large capital stock when abatement efficiency has grown sufficiently large. The paper also provides novel results on the impact of pollution intensity and the rate of technical progress on the greening of the economy and the pollution permit prices. In the quantitative part, we calibrate model and study economic growth under different assumptions on the basic model parameters.

Does a Carbon Tax Reduce CO2 Emissions? Evidence from British Columbia

AbstractUsing difference-in-differences, synthetic control, and introducing a new break-detection approach, I show that the introduction of North America’s first major carbon tax has reduced transportation emissions but not ‘yet’ led to large statistically significant reductions in aggregate CO2 emissions. Proposing a new method to assess policy based on breaks in difference-in-differences using machine learning, I demonstrate that neither carbon pricing nor trading schemes in other provinces are detected as large and statistically significant interventions. Instead, closures and efficiency-improvements in emission-intense industries in untaxed provinces have reduced emissions. Overall, the results show that existing carbon taxes (and prices) are likely too low to be effective in the time frame since their introduction.

Emission pricing, emission rebound, and the coverage scope of incomplete regulations

This paper studies the emissions pricing of incomplete regulations when accurate firm-level information is unavailable. In an economy with monopolistically competitive heterogeneous firms, the equilibrium can be sufficiently characterized by an aggregate statistic, which we call the “coverage scope”. Given the coverage scope, emissions leakage to the unregulated firms results in a “U-shaped” relationship between the aggregate emissions and emissions price. As the coverage scope expands, the second-best emissions price increases. Firm heterogeneity and market power, the two defining features of the monopolistically competitive economy, affect emissions pricing differently. While both of them affect the second-best emissions price indirectly through coverage scope, market power has an additional direct effect. As a result, the optimal emissions price does not always decrease in market power, which contrasts the traditional wisdom on emissions pricing under complete regulations. A multi-sector model is numerically simulated using parameters for five Chinese manufacturing sectors to be incorporated into a proposed national carbon emissions pricing program. Quantitatively, the second-best price varies substantially with coverage scope and market conditions.

Consequences of Sustainable Agricultural Productivity, Renewable Energy, and Environmental Decay: Recent Evidence from ASEAN Countries

Agriculture is critical for meeting the needs of the world’s population, in terms of food production. As a result, it has become a significant contributor to economic growth. According to various studies, agricultural production is one of the most widely recognized sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. This study explores the causal link between aggregate energy consumption resources, trade liberalization, CO2 emissions, and modern agriculture in selected ASEAN nations from 2000 to 2020, through the use of panel FMOLS data from the United Nations Development Program (fully modified ordinary least square). According to scientific research, the value addition of agricultural commodities helps to reduce CO2 emissions in polluted countries such as the United States. In addition, it was revealed that the quantity of CO2 released per unit of energy spent was positively associated with the amount of energy consumed. The reduction of CO2 emissions is possible in nations where environmental pollution is reducing due to trade liberalization. Although fossil fuels have increased CO2 emissions, research has shown that adopting renewable energy can help mitigate environmental damage. Revenues and productivity in agriculture are increased due to climate-smart agricultural-favored institutions, while greenhouse gas emissions are reduced. As an example of renewable energy, new energy resources may contribute to the preservation of a clean and healthy environment. The use of renewable energy in agriculture reduces the dependency on fossil fuels, which is beneficial for farmers. Trade policy, on the other hand, may stimulate the movement of money and technology, in order to specialize in economies of scale and manufacturing. It is imperative that ASEAN countries examine policies that will improve living standards, while also protecting the environment. This includes measures that will stimulate agricultural sector production and create active marketplaces for international trade

Environmental degradation effect on agricultural development: an aggregate and a sectoral evidence of carbon dioxide emissions from Ghana

PurposeQuality environment is argued to be essential for ensuring food security. The effect of environmental degradation on agriculture has thus gained the attention of researchers. However, the analyses of aggregate and sectoral effect of carbon dioxide emissions on agricultural development are limited in the literature. Consequently, this study examines the effect of aggregate and sectoral carbon emissions on Ghana's agricultural development.Design/methodology/approachTime-series data from 1971 to 2017 are employed for the study. Regression analysis and a variance decomposition analysis are employed in the study.FindingsThe results show that the country's agricultural development is negatively affected by aggregate carbon emission while financial development, labour and capital increases agricultural development. Further, industrial development and emissions from transport sector, industrial sector and other sectors adversely affect Ghana's agriculture development. The contribution of carbon emission together with other explanatory variables to the changes in agricultural development generally increases over the period.Originality/valueThis study analyses the aggregate and sectoral carbon dioxide emission effect on Ghana's agricultural development.

The Curious Case of the Missing Chinese Emissions

This paper characterizes the growth of sulfur dioxide emissions among Chinese manufacturers during the WTO-accession period. By failing to account for contemporaneous changes in markups, we demonstrate that standard emissions analyses overemphasize within-firm reductions in emissions intensity, while undervaluing the role of resource reallocation across firms. We derive an unbiased decomposition of aggregate emissions and find that emissions increased nearly one for one with total production. Although improved technology mitigated emissions growth by 18%–21% between 2000 and 2005, these gains were completely offset by resource reallocation toward dirty producers over the same time frame. Our findings imply that lowering future emissions growth among Chinese manufacturers may require lowering aggregate manufacturing production or fundamentally changing Chinese industrial composition toward cleaner industries.

Three in One: Stimuli-Responsive Fluorescence, Solid-State Emission, and Dual-Organelle Imaging Using a Pyrene-Benzophenone Derivative.

Small organic luminogens, owing to their contrasting stimuli-responsive fluorescence in solution along with strong emission in aggregated and solidstates, have been employed in optoelectronic devices, sensors, and bioimaging. Pyrene derivatives usually exhibit strong fluorescence and concentration-dependent excimer/aggregate emission in solution. However, the impacts of microenvironments on the monomer and aggregate emission bands and their relative intensities in solution, solid, and supramolecular aggregates are intriguing. The present study delineates a trade-off between the monomer and aggregate emissions of a pyrene-benzophenone derivative (ABzPy) in solution, in the solid-state, and in nanoaggregates through a combined spectroscopic and microscopic approach. The impact of external stimuli (viscosity, pH) on the aggregate emission was demonstrated using steady-state and time-resolved spectroscopy, including fluorescence correlation spectroscopy and fluorescence anisotropy decay analysis. The aggregate formation was noticed at a higher concentration (>10 μM) in solution, at 77 K (5 μM), and in the solid-state due to the π-π stacking interactions (3.6 Å) between two ABzPy molecules. In contrast, no aggregate formation was observed in the viscous medium as well as in a micellar environment even at a higher concentration of ABzPy (50 μM). The crystal structure analysis further shed light on the intermolecular hydrogen-bonding-assisted solid-state emission, which was found to be highly sensitive toward external stimuli like pH and mechanical forces. The broad emission band comprising both monomer and aggregate in the aqueous dispersion of nanoaggregates was used for the specific cellular imaging of lysosomes and lipid droplets, respectively.

Government mandatory energy-biased technological progress and enterprises' environmental performance: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment of cleaner production standards in China

The effective government mandatory energy-biased technological progress and its transition to price-induced or R&D-induced technological progress is critical to achieving sustainable development in developing countries such as China. Based on a quasi-natural experiment of cleaner production standards in China, this study investigated the impact of government mandatory energy-biased technological progress on enterprises' environmental performance using the difference-in-differences method. Highly robust benchmark results indicated that the implementation of cleaner production standards effectively reduced the SO2 emissions intensity of enterprises, but failed to reduce the aggregate SO2 emissions. Mechanism analysis showed that the SO2 emissions intensity reduction effect is achieved by introducing advanced production process and desulfurization equipment and thus increasing fixed investment. Nevertheless, it “squeezes out” enterprises' R&D expenditures and increases the amount of coal consumption. Moreover, it can improve the degree of resource misallocation through affecting the entry and exit decisions of companies with heterogeneous productivity. Heterogeneity analysis revealed that the implementation of cleaner production standards is affected by enterprise ownership, industry characteristics, etc. This study suggests that the government should develop a market-oriented energy price regime, optimize the energy factor market, and improve the dual control system of energy consumption intensity and aggregate energy consumption.

Impact of Modernized Agriculture and Trade on Carbon Emissions: The Role of Fossil Fuel and Renewable Energy Consumption Evidenced from ASEAN States

Sustainable development goals developed to reduce the level of climate transformation and its effects, this study explores the causal association between aggregate energy consumption resources, trade liberalization, CO2 emissions, and modern agriculture in selected ASEAN nations from 2000 to 2018 with the help of panel FMOLS (fully modified ordinary least square). Empirical findings have shown that the value addition level of agricultural products minimizes CO2 emissions in those countries where pollution is high. And found a positive relationship between energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Trade liberalization has made it possible to reduce CO2 emissions in economies where environmental pollution is getting lower. While the use of fossil fuels has intensified CO2 emissions, renewable energy consumption has confirmed positive effects on the pollution of the environment. While Climate-smart agriculture preferred institutions to raise income and productivity, adjusting to climate change sustainably leads to decreased greenhouse gas emissions. For example, new energy resources, renewable energy help keep the environment clean and healthy. It avoids excessive dependency on fossil fuel energy for the determinants of the agriculture sector. On the other hand, Trade policy can motivate the flow of investment opportunities and technology for a specialty in economies of scale and production. Therefore, examining strategies that encourage the agricultural sector's productivity and creating active markets for international trade in ASEAN countries will improve living standards and keep the environment clean and healthy.

An Experimental Analysis of the Effects of Imperfect Compliance on Technology Adoption

We present the results of an experimental investigation on incentives to adopt cleaner abatement technologies in the presence of imperfect compliance. We consider two emission control instruments—emission taxes and tradable permits—as well as different combinations of the inspection probability and fine for non-compliance, which can result in full or weak enforcement scenarios. We review and qualify existing theoretical predictions in several ways and find the main result is that allowing for weak enforcement causes tax evasion, reductions in permit prices and lower adoption rates of cleaner abatement technologies. As a result, there are increases in aggregate emissions. Finally, treatments with tradable permits under weak enforcement encounter insufficient trading.

Do methane emissions converge? Evidence from global panel data on production- and consumption-based emissions

Methane emissions are the second most important contributor to global warming. Knowledge about the dynamics of methane emissions facilitates the formulation of climate policies and the understanding of their consequences. We investigate whether methane emissions released from production and embodied in consumption converge within and across regions. Our estimates rely on global panel data on methane per capita and methane intensities over 1997–2014. We find that emissions converge within countries. The short half-lives show that the emissions of countries are close to their steady states. There is no evidence for international convergence of aggregate emissions. Yet, convergence of emissions across regions occurs in a number of economic sectors. Our results highlight the difficulties to achieve methane abatement in the medium run. The formulation of climate policies should take into account the sectoral specificity of the dynamics of methane emissions.

Markovian city-scale modelling and mitigation of micro-particles from tires.

The recent uptake in popularity in vehicles with zero tailpipe emissions is a welcome development in the fight against traffic induced airborne pollutants. As vehicle fleets become electrified, and tailpipe emissions become less prevalent, non-tailpipe emissions (from tires and brake disks) will become the dominant source of traffic related emissions, and will in all likelihood become a major concern for human health. This trend is likely to be exacerbated by the heavier weight of electric vehicles, their increased power, and their increased torque capabilities, when compared with traditional vehicles. While the problem of emissions from tire wear is well-known, issues around the process of tire abrasion, its impact on the environment, and modelling and mitigation measures, remain relatively unexplored. Work on this topic has proceeded in several discrete directions including: on-vehicle collection methods; vehicle tire-wear abatement algorithms and controlling the ride characteristics of a vehicle, all with a view to abating tire emissions. Additional approaches include access control mechanisms to manage aggregate tire emissions in a geofenced area with other notable work focussing on understanding the particle size distribution of tire generated PM, the degree to which particles become airborne, and the health impacts of tire emissions. While such efforts are already underway, the problem of developing models to predict the aggregate picture of a network of vehicles at the scale of a city, has yet to be considered. Our objective in this paper is to present one such model, built using ideas from Markov chains. Applications of our modelling approach are given toward the end of this note, both to illustrate the utility of the proposed method, and to illustrate its application as part of a method to collect tire dust particles.

Key Factors Influencing the Achievement of Climate Neutrality Targets in the Manufacturing Industry: LMDI Decomposition Analysis

The manufacturing industry is often caught in the sustainability dilemma between economic growth targets and climate action plans. In this study, a Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition analysis is applied to investigate how the amount of industrial energy-related CO2 emissions in Latvia has changed in the period from 1995 to 2019. The change in aggregate energy-related CO2 emissions in manufacturing industries is measured by five different factors: the industrial activity effect, structural change effect, energy intensity effect, fuel mix effect, and emission intensity effect. The decomposition analysis results showed that while there has been significant improvement in energy efficiency and decarbonization measures in industry, in recent years, the impact of the improvements has been largely offset by increased industrial activity in energy-intensive sectors such as wood processing and non-metallic mineral production. The results show that energy efficiency measures in industry contribute most to reducing carbon emissions. In the future, additional policies are needed to accelerate the deployment of clean energy and energy efficiency technologies.