Abstract
Methane emissions are the second most important contributor to global warming. Knowledge about the dynamics of methane emissions facilitates the formulation of climate policies and the understanding of their consequences. We investigate whether methane emissions released from production and embodied in consumption converge within and across regions. Our estimates rely on global panel data on methane per capita and methane intensities over 1997–2014. We find that emissions converge within countries. The short half-lives show that the emissions of countries are close to their steady states. There is no evidence for international convergence of aggregate emissions. Yet, convergence of emissions across regions occurs in a number of economic sectors. Our results highlight the difficulties to achieve methane abatement in the medium run. The formulation of climate policies should take into account the sectoral specificity of the dynamics of methane emissions.
Highlights
The authors thank the participants of the SWSR for inspiring discussions
We conducted a comprehensive analysis of convergence patterns of CH4 emissions based on international data on anthropogenic CH4 emissions, which contributes several insights to the literature on the sustainability of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and provides information for international policy dialogue
Our results show that methane emissions per capita and CH4 intensities are stabilizing rapidly around individual-specific steady states
Summary
We test for β-convergence using a Bayesian structural model developed by FernándezAmador et al (2019), which is based on the Green Solow model (Brock and Taylor 2010) and the neoclassical growth model by Ordás Criado et al (2011). The dependent variable in Eq (1) is the average growth rate of emissions in region i over the period t − s and t (Gi,t,s), alternatively released from production and embodied in consumption, both per capita and per unit of value added. Gi,t,s depends on the logarithm of lagged emissions (Ei,t−s), interactions of Ei,t−s with dummy indicators for EU, OECD, and Annex I countries that ratified the Kyoto Protocol (d j ), the average growth rate and the lagged logarithm of real GDP per capita (gi,t,s and Yi,t−s ), a set of control variables (zr,i,t−s ), and time- and individual-specific effects (δt and αi ). To the specification explained above, we test for β-convergence toward international steady states conditional on socio-economic and political variables, by estimating the system formed by Eqs. We perform all the estimations using methane emissions at the sectoral level as the dependent variable. 4
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