Age Structure Research Articles

Weather events influence survival and recruitment of Coereba flaveola (Bananaquit) in the Caribbean

Abstract The West Indies is considered a biodiversity hotspot and a priority for ecological conservation efforts. Understanding how environmental conditions influence survival of resident avifauna is an important information need given the predicted increases of drought and frequency and intensity of severe storms in the region. Throughout much of the Caribbean, Coereba flaveola (Bananaquit) are widespread and abundant, traits that may facilitate understanding their response to environmental changes in the region. We used a 10-yr capture–mark–recapture data set to examine C. flaveola survival, recruitment, population growth, and age structure in context of monthly and seasonal precipitation and temperatures, drought conditions, and occurrence and intensity of storm events. Our models suggested wing length, occurrence of storms, and drought all influenced survival. Both the incidence of storms and drier than average conditions in the preceding wet season (April–June) decreased survival. Sex of bird and net hours influenced capture probability, but weather influences on recruitment were equivocal. During non-storm years, mean population growth was stable at 1.019 (95% CI: 0.962, 1.098), but dropped to 0.843 (95% CI: 0.795, 0.846) in storm years. Increasing frequency of storms, such as back-to-back years, would likely push the growth rate lower. A protracted pattern of increased storm frequency, especially if coupled with a subsequent drought during the wet season, may lead to localized extirpations or strongly reduced populations.

Resource stock, age structure, and seed prediction of ferula sinkiangensis K.M. Shen

Ferula sinkiangensis K.M. Shen (FS) is an endemic species in Xinjiang, China. It has extremely high economic and medicinal value but is on the brink of extinction. A comprehensive survey of the distribution area of FS was conducted to study its resource stock, age structure and yielding capacity of seeds. Results show that there is one existing distribution area of FS with an area of 322.84 hm2 and a total plant quantity of 907,100. The age structure of FS population is reasonable showing a growing type of population. After low-temperature treatment and indoor germination of the seeds of FS, the utilization efficiency of seeds was increased by 15.45 times and 1165.81 times respectively. The establishment of the original habitat protection zone has played a huge role in promoting the recovery of the population of FS and the indoor germination of seeds would greatly alleviate the problem of seeds shortage of FS. Bangladesh J. Bot. 53(3): 765-772, 2024 (September) Special

Design of Social Infrastructure and Services Taking into Account Internal Migration by Age Cohort

Abstract Background European cities and regions are facing depopulation and an ageing population, leading to a shift in the demand and supply of goods and giving rise to the silver economy. This demographic change has an impact on urban and regional planning, which is influenced by both internal and external migration. Objectives Based on the hypothesis that the attractiveness of locations also depends on the age of the inhabitants, the paper investigates the gravitational effects on the intensity of migration flows by age cohorts. Methods/Approach This study examines how factors that influence the retention or attraction of people towards specific areas affect migration between age groups at different hierarchical spatial levels, using the gravity model implemented at the Slovenian spatial levels NUTS 2 and NUTS 3. Results Distance is least important for the 65-74 age group, while wages influence only the youngest cohorts. The capacity of care homes has a significant influence on the attractiveness of older cohorts to move between NUTS 2 regions. There is a high correlation between the factors at the municipal and NUTS 3 levels for the population aged 75+. The factors at NUTS 2 and NUTS 3 levels show a strong correlation for those under 65. Conclusions These results can form a basis for the development of the silver economy as they show the need for adapted infrastructures and services for older adults. As the age structure is changing, authorities should adapt infrastructures and services to the different levels of central places/regions. The growing number of older people makes research into optimal solutions for long-term care a crucial factor for the silver economy.

Individual child factors affecting the diagnosis of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in children and adolescents: a systematic review.

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a prevalent condition characterised by patterns of inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity. This systematic literature review aims to identify the child clinical and sociodemographic factors related to the detection and diagnosis of ADHD in children and adolescents, given concerns about delays or failures in identifying ADHD as well as over-diagnosis, hindering appropriate and timely support for children and families. Through electronic and manual searches of peer-reviewed and grey literature, 5852 articles were identified and subjected to two stages of screening by independent reviewers. Due to the heterogeneity in study methods, a narrative approach was used to summarise study findings. Forty-one studies meeting eligibility criteria revealed sixteen child-related factors influencing the ADHD diagnostic process. These factors include ADHD subtype, ADHD symptom severity, comorbid mental disorders, behavior problems, internalizing symptoms, functional impairment, social and cognitive functioning, physical health, gender, age, relative age, race/ethnicity, socio-economic status, insurance coverage, residence urbanicity, and family structure. While the impact of many of these factors on ADHD diagnosis was inconsistent due to the substantial diversity in study designs and context, certain patterns emerged. Meeting the criteria for the inattentive subtype, lower functional impairment, female gender, Black or Latinx ethnicity, and being relatively young for their grade were consistently found to be associated with a delayed or absent ADHD diagnosis. Further research is needed to explore the intricate relationships between these child-level variables and their implications for ADHD recognition, referral, and evaluation, especially outside the USA.

DEMOGRAPHIC AGING TRENDS IN EU COUNTRIES AND UKRAINE

The article provides an analysis of trends in the development of the demographic aging process in the countries of the European Union and Ukraine based on the calculation of values of demographic aging (aging coefficient, aging index, demographic burden due to the elderly, age of values aging). The obtained data allow us to draw a conclusion about the convergence of most values of population aging in the EU as a whole, as well as to identify several groups of countries with the same aging values and demographic trends. As a result of the study, the authors identified 5 groups of countries that demonstrate: 1) the highest of aging and population aging rates; 2) the average values of the index and the aging coefficient, however, show high rates of growth of the aging population and demographic burden; 3) average values of aging, but reduced growth rates of the aging population; 4) average values of aging; 5) the lowest rates and values of population aging. The authors forecast changes in the age structure of the population in the EU until 2100, which showed that in the future the share of people aged 65+ will only increase, and this will require certain changes in the social life and economy of the countries of the studied region. The demographic situation that has developed in the studied region requires constant monitoring and accounting in strategic planning at all levels, as well as improvement of the social policy of the EU countries regarding the elderly.

Assessing subgroup differences and underlying causes of ozone-associated mortality burden in China using multi-source data

Long-term ozone exposure is a significant public health concern. To mitigate its impact, it is crucial to identify diseases, populations, and regions that are particularly sensitive to ozone. In this study, we used high-quality data and updated relative risk estimates to investigate subgroup differences in mortality burden due to ozone exposure in China. In 2020, nationwide ozone-associated deaths totaled 276,800 (95 % CI: 106,700–451,900), representing 3.2 % of all deaths, with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases accounting for 16.8 % and 83.2 %, respectively. The per capita ozone-associated mortality in China was 20 per 100,000 person-years, with a significantly higher rate observed in elderly individuals aged ≥75 years (189 deaths per 100,000) compared to young individuals aged 30–44 years (1 death per 100,000). There were notable spatial patterns of ozone-associated deaths among the regions, indicating a critical response to ozone levels and population density. Interestingly, urban areas exhibited a 22.4 % lower mortality rate related to ozone compared to rural areas. This difference was attributed to the combined influence of ozone exposure (+19.9 %), population size (+17.7 %), age structure (−39.2 %), and baseline mortality (−20.8 %). By emphasizing subgroup differences and driving factors, these findings significantly enhance the understanding of the ozone-associated mortality burden, providing valuable insights for policymakers.

Planning the optimal general nurse graduates: methodology and significance

Global problems with a shortage of nurses and an increasing demand for nursing care raise questions about whether the education system as the primary source of new nurses is in line with future demands. Despite the shortage, the situation in the Czech Republic is not yet critical, but the analysis of the age structure and the small number of graduates indicates a problem on the horizon of 15 to 20 years. The objective of the article is to present the methodology developed to estimate the demand for the profession of a nurse to maintain a functional health care system according to demographic changes and to propose the optimal number of students enrolled in the nursing study program. Authors created the methodology as part of the project “Competent Nurse for the 21st Century: Analysis and proposal for optimisation of nursing education and professional practice”, supported by the Czech Republic Technological Agency. The methodology was certified by the Czech Republic Ministry of Health at the end of 2022.

On the necessity of accounting for age structure in human malaria transmission modelling

Malaria is one of the most common mosquito-borne diseases widespread in tropical and subtropical regions, causing thousands of deaths every year in the world. In a previous paper, we formulated an age-structured model containing three structural variables: (i) the chronological age of human and mosquito populations, (ii) the time since they are infected, and (iii) humans waning immunity (i.e. the progressive loss of protective antibodies after recovery). In the present paper, we expand the analysis of this age-structured model and focus on the derivation of entomological and epidemiological results commonly used in the literature, following the works of Smith and McKenzie. We generalize their results to the age-structured case. In order to quantify the impact of neglecting structuring variables such as chronological age, we assigned values from the literature to our model parameters. While some parameters values are readily accessible from the literature, at least those about the human population, the parameters concerning mosquitoes are less commonly documented and the values of a number of them (e.g. mosquito survival in the presence or in absence of infection) can be discussed extensively. Our analysis, informed by parameter values from the literature, demonstrates that overlooking those structural variables of human and mosquito populations may result in inaccurate epidemiological predictions and suboptimal control strategies. We highlight the epidemiological implications of these findings and emphasize the necessity of considering age structure in future malaria control programs.

Paleobiology and paleoecology of the woolly rhinoceros (Coelodonta antiquitatis) in Northern and Central Europe: New insights from multi-proxy data

The woolly rhinoceros, Coelodonta antiquitatis, was an emblematic component of Pleistocene faunas in Eurasia, which went extinct around ca. 12.5 ky BP. The loss of its tundra-steppe habitat due to climatic changes is considered the main cause for its extinction, whereas human impact was limited. In this study, we investigated the paleobiology and paleoecology of C. antiquitatis during the last glacial interval (Würm/Weichselian; 130 to 11.7 kya). We explored evolutionary trends for diet, physiology, and habitat via dental wear, enamel hypoplasia, body mass, age structure, mortality curves and stable isotopes (carbon and oxygen). Our results confirmed that C. antiquitatis was a large-sized species, with body mass around 2000–2500 kg, and with C3 grazing or mixed-feeding habits. Age structure and mortality curves revealed potential sampling and/or taphonomical biases at a few localities (e.g., Brixham cave, Ofnethöhle, North Sea), and indicated several vulnerability periods (birth, weaning, cow-calf separation/maturity) also retrieved by hypoplasia analyses. We observed some spatio-temporal fluctuations of body mass (1850–2955 kg), dietary preferences (strict to variable grazing) and hypoplasia prevalence (7.41–47.06 %) of C. antiquitatis depending on the locality, but correlation to specific climatic events (stadials-interstadials) is difficult without exact datation. These variations were however limited, highlighting a rather strict climatic niche and suggesting a high vulnerability to climatic and vegetation changes.

A deterministic Analysis of an Age-Gender structured model for malaria transmission dynamics

Objectives: Children below five years and women especially pregnant women are at high risk of malaria infection and death due to their weak immunity and exposition to mosquitoes. Different studies have been undertaken considering only the age structured model and other factors but did not take into account the gender. The objective of this work is to develop and analyze the malaria transmission model including this structure, to contribute on the existing measures and mechanisms to eradicate malaria in Rwanda.Methods: The dynamic malaria transmission model considering age and gender structure was developed and analyzed. To study the dynamics of disease, the basic reproduction number was analytically computed and numerically estimated and the normalized forward sensitivity index was used to highlight its sensitive parameters.Results: The most positive sensitive parameters in the model are the force of infection and infection rate for vectors and Infection rate for female of 5 years and above. The most negative sensitive parameters are the per capita death rate for vectors and humans.Conclusion: To control the spread of malaria in Rwanda, the biting and infection rate should be decreased.Therefore, women must comply with government measures against malaria and educate children about it.

Mass incarceration as a driver of the tuberculosis epidemic in Latin America and projected effects of policy alternatives: a mathematical modelling study

Tuberculosis incidence is increasing in Latin America, where the incarcerated population has nearly quadrupled since 1990. We aimed to quantify the impact of historical and future incarceration policies on the tuberculosis epidemic, accounting for effects in and beyond prisons. In this modelling study, we calibrated dynamic compartmental transmission models to historical and contemporary data from Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador, Mexico, and Peru, which comprise approximately 80% of the region's incarcerated population and tuberculosis burden. The model was fit independently for each country to incarceration and tuberculosis data from 1990 to 2023 (specific dates were country dependent). The model does not include HIV, drug resistance, gender or sex, or age structure. Using historical counterfactual scenarios, we estimated the transmission population attributable fraction (tPAF) for incarceration and the excess population-level burden attributable to increasing incarceration prevalence since 1990. We additionally projected the effect of alternative incarceration policies on future population tuberculosis incidence. Population tuberculosis incidence in 2019 was 29·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 23·9-36·8) higher than expected without the rise in incarceration since 1990, corresponding to 34 393 (28 295-42 579) excess incident cases across countries. The incarceration tPAF in 2019 was 27·2% (20·9-35·8), exceeding estimates for other risk factors like HIV, alcohol use disorder, and undernutrition. Compared with a scenario where incarceration rates remain stable at current levels, a gradual 50% reduction in prison admissions and duration of incarceration by 2034 would reduce population tuberculosis incidence by over 10% in all countries except Mexico. The historical rise in incarceration in Latin America has resulted in a large excess tuberculosis burden that has been under-recognised to date. International health agencies, ministries of justice, and national tuberculosis programmes should collaborate to address this health crisis with comprehensive strategies, including decarceration. National Institutes of Health.

Projected health workforce requirements and shortage for addressing the disease burden in the WHO Africa Region, 2022–2030: a needs-based modelling study

IntroductionAn adequate health workforce (HWF) is essential to achieving the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), including universal health coverage. However, weak HWF planning and constrained fiscal space for...

Here to stay: evaluating establishment of eastern tubenose goby Proterorhinus semipellucidus (Kessler, 1877) in the Baltic Sea with otolith microchemistry and structure

In 2020, the presence of a novel non-indigenous species, eastern tubenose goby Proterorhinus semipellucidus (Kessler, 1877), was documented in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea. As tubenose goby invasion may have a comprehensive ecological impact on the local ecosystem, it has to be confirmed whether the species has established an independently reproducing population or persists through continuous invasions in this area. We examined the otolith microstructure to determine the age of specimens sampled from the southern and northern coasts of the Gulf of Finland. Additionally, otolith microchemistry analysis was carried out on the southern coast specimens. Otolith microstructure revealed the population’s age structure, showing the presence of different age classes, including younger individuals. The microchemistry analyses suggested that the specimens had hatched in brackish water salinities similar to those found in the sampling areas. This indicates local reproduction instead of introduction from the virtually freshwater Neva Bay, which is most likely the donor area of the studied populations. These data confirm the establishment of a self-sustaining reproducing population of eastern tubenose goby in the Gulf of Finland, eastern part of the brackish Baltic Sea.

Trajectories and Sex Differences of Brain Structure, Oxygenation and Perfusion Functions in Normal Aging

Brain structure, oxygenation and perfusion are important factors in aging. Coupling between regional cerebral oxygen consumption and perfusion also reflects functions of neurovascular unit (NVU). Their trajectories and sex differences during normal aging important for clinical interpretation are still not well defined. In this study, we aim to investigate the relationship between brain structure, functions and age, and exam the sex disparities. A total of 137 healthy subjects between 20∼69 years old were enrolled with conventional MRI, structural three-dimensional T1-weighted imaging (3D-T1WI), 3D multi-echo gradient echo sequence (3D-mGRE), and 3D pseudo-continuous arterial spin labeling (3D-pCASL). Oxygen extraction fraction (OEF) and cerebral blood flow (CBF) were respectively reconstructed from 3D-mGRE and 3D-pCASL images. Cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen (CMRO2) were calculated as follows: CMRO2=CBF·OEF·[H]a, [H]a=7.377 μmol/mL. Brains were segmented into global gray matter (GM), global white matter (WM), and 148 cortical subregions. OEF, CBF, CMRO2, and volumes of GM/WM relative to intracranial volumes (rel_GM/rel_WM) were compared between males and females. Generalized additive models were used to evaluate the aging trajectories of brain structure and functions. The coupling between OEF and CBF was analyzed by correlation analysis. P or PFDR < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Females had larger rel_GM, higher CMRO2 and CBF of GM/WM than males (P < 0.05). With control of sex, CBF of GM significantly declined between 20 and 32 years, CMRO2 of GM declined subsequently from 33 to 41 years and rel_GM decreased significantly at all ages (R2 = 0.27, P < 0.001; R2 = 0.17, P < 0.001; R2 = 0.52, P < 0.001). In subregion analysis, CBF declined dispersedly while CMRO2 declined widely across most subregions of the cortex during aging. Robust negative coupling between OEF and CBF was found in most of the subregions (r range = -0.12∼-0.48, PFDR < 0.05). The sex disparities, age trajectories of brain structure and functions as well as the coupling of NVU in healthy individuals provide insights into normal aging which are potential targets for study of pathological conditions.

Data-driven corrosion failure probabilistic assessment model for reinforced concrete structures

The corrosion-induced failure of marine reinforced concrete structures, stemming from prolonged exposure to environments with elevated chloride content, poses a significant threat to structural integrity and serviceability. Traditional models predominantly depend on prior information to estimate the spatial stochastic degradation of aging structures, leading to a lack of comprehensiveness and accuracy in evaluation results. To address these limitations, a data-driven probabilistic assessment model for corrosion failure is proposed. This model incorporates a pre-training phase that integrates electrochemical simulations with long-term exposure data to establish the spatiotemporal distribution of corrosion failures, thereby facilitating a thorough assessment of overall damage by quantifying the corrosion failure proportion while propagating epistemic uncertainty. Subsequently, a multivariate function is derived using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm to elucidate the relationship between input and output variables. The efficacy of the data-driven model is evaluated through experimental observations and model predictions. The Hangzhou Bay Bridge project serves as a case study, wherein this model is demonstrated using actual data obtained from exposure experiments and field detection. Furthermore, the proposed model enables a rapid prejudgment of corrosion failure proportion, significantly reducing diagnostic time compared to conventional procedures.

Reexamining exposure from truck emissions considering daily movement of individuals

With the growing demand for urban freight transportation, trucks emit a large amount of pollutants such as particulate matters and nitrogen oxides, increasingly affecting public health. This study establishes a modelized air dispersion structure to simulate pollutant concentration distribution. By integrating multiple data sources including mobile phone signals and satellite images, we reconstruct the daily trajectories of individuals and further incorporate simulated pollution concentrations in calculating dynamic and static exposure of individuals to truck emissions. Econometric models considering spatial dependence are developed to evaluate the influencing factors and elucidate the mechanisms of pollutant exposure. Results show factors including freight demand, road network, residential and employment locations, personal commuting distance, and population age structure matter in assessing truck emission exposure. As a result, a mixture of vehicular emission standards, urban traffic control, land planning, and industrial policies is proposed to reduce truck pollutant exposure and safeguard public health.

Probabilistic assessment of earthquake casualties in residential areas

Accurately and reasonably assessing earthquake casualties is crucial for seismic disaster planning and governmental decision-making. However, current research on earthquake casualty assessments often lacks sufficient consideration of the uncertainties related to seismic scenarios and influencing factors. To enhance the authenticity and reliability of casualty assessments, this study proposes a seismic casualty assessment model capable of simultaneously considering multiple influencing factors. It quantitatively evaluates each influencing factor and comprehensively integrates the uncertainty characteristics associated with seismic occurrence time, building damage states, and the number of occupants. Using a residential area as an example, the research compares casualty assessment results with and without considering apartment layouts and the age structure of residents. It also explains the probabilistic method for quantifying casualties and constructing vulnerability models for seismic events in the residential area. Additionally, a simplified analytical method applicable to probabilistic assessment of earthquake casualties in masonry residential areas in Beijing is proposed. The research findings indicate that the apartment layouts within buildings have a relatively minor impact on the assessment results of casualties in the residential area, while the age structure of residents significantly affects earthquake casualty estimates. Casualty rates in the residential area, considering uncertainties in the three factors, approximately follow a log-normal distribution. For seismic intensities ranging from VI(0.05g) to IX(0.40g), the standard deviation of casualty rates across different seismic intensities exceeds 0.4. The probabilistic analysis method proposed in this study enhances existing models for earthquake casualty assessments and addresses the shortcomings in probabilistic evaluation research.

Quantifying age-specific household contacts in Aotearoa New Zealand for infectious disease modelling.

Accounting for population age structure and age-specific contact patterns is crucial for accurate modelling of human infectious disease dynamics and impact. A common approach is to use contact matrices, which estimate the number of contacts between individuals of different ages. These contact matrices are frequently based on data collected from populations with very different demographic and socio-economic characteristics from the population of interest. Here we use a comprehensive household composition dataset based on Aotearoa New Zealand census and administrative data to construct a household contact matrix and a synthetic population that can be used for modelling. We investigate the behaviour of a compartment-based and an agent-based epidemic model parametrized using these data, compared with a commonly used contact matrix that was constructed by projecting international data onto New Zealand's population. We find that using the New Zealand household data, either in a compartment-based model or in an agent-based model, leads to lower attack rates in older age groups compared with using the projected contact matrix. This difference becomes larger when household transmission is more dominant relative to non-household transmission. We provide electronic versions of the synthetic population and household contact matrix for other researchers to use in infectious disease models.

Geopolitical Aspects of Demographic Processes: Development of Scientific Ideas of L. L. Rybakovsky

Demographic processes play a key role in the formation of the geopolitical picture of the world. Population size, its age structure, growth rates and migration flows have a significant impact on the economic power of states, their military potential and their ability to project power in the international arena. This article examines contemporary and historical views on the significance of demographic factors in the geopolitical competition of countries and the measurement of a state's national power. The study covers both contemporary and historical aspects of the issue. The paper provides a systematic review of the evolution of scientific views on the significance of demographic factors in the geopolitical context. Particular attention is paid to modern methodological approaches to measuring the national power of a state considering demographic indicators. The article offers a critical analysis of existing models for assessing geopolitical influence based on demographic factors and considers their applicability in the context of global demographic transformations. The study also addresses topical issues of the impact of demographic trends on the geopolitical strategies of states in the 21st century, including the problems of population aging, migration processes and demographic imbalances between developed and developing countries. Special attention is paid to the analysis of geopolitical aspects of demographic processes in the works of the outstanding Russian demographer L.L.Rybakovsky. The paper considers the key concepts of the scientist, including demographic security, the geopolitical significance of migration processes, the relationship between demography and spatial development of Russia, as well as the role of demographic policy as an instrument of geopolitical influence.

State and Possibilities of Strengthening the Labor Potential of Russia (Based on the All-Russian Population Census 2020)

Introduction. The most complete information on the size and composition of the population is provided by continuous population censuses, which collect information necessary for the analysis of quantitative and qualitative changes in the composition of the population and the labor force. The purpose of the study is to identify changes in the numerical composition, age structure, and qualitative parameters of the labor potential of the Russian population in the period between the All-Russian population censuses of 2010 and 2020, and to outline ways to strengthen it. Materials and Methods. The study was based on the results of the All-Russian Population Censuses of 2010 and 2020, current accounting data and forecast calculations of Rosstat, publications of scientists engaged in research in the field of economic demography. The analysis of changes in the demographic development of the Russian Federation in the intercensal period was carried out using the methods of dynamic and structural analysis, and the generalization of the results of published scientific research was made on the basis of critical analysis. Quantitative parameters of the labor potential were estimated on the basis of indicators of the population of working age, employed in the economy, unemployed citizens and potential labor force. Results. The main changes in the number and composition of the Russian population by age and education that occurred during the inter-census period have been established. The quantitative and qualitative parameters of the labor force are determined. The outstripping growth of the level of education of unemployed citizens and potential labor force in comparison with those employed in the economy has been revealed, which, with a high degree of depreciation of the active part of fixed assets and a large part of workplaces with harmful and dangerous working conditions, suggests the archaic nature of the Russian economy and the general discrepancy between its requests and the level of education of the population. Calculations have shown that due to the involvement of potential labor in public production, it will not be possible to solve the problem of labor shortage. Discussion and Conclusion. In order to provide the Russian economy with the necessary labor force, it is suggested to consider the following options for increasing the working time fund: temporary increase in the retirement age for women, temporary decrease in the number of holidays, temporary decrease in the duration of paid leave, temporary increase in the length of the working week. The results of the research can be useful for scientists and representatives of public authorities dealing with demographic development, strategic planning, regional development, migration regulation, as well as for specialists in the field of personnel training.