Changes In Age Structure Research Articles

Burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to population aging in China, 1990‒2050

Objective: The direction and intensity of population aging on the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in China from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed, and the burden of NCDs in 2050 was predicted. Methods: The disease-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study.The differences in indicators from 1990 to 2019 were attributed to the contribution of age structure, population size, and all other causes. The Bayesian age-time-cohort models were used to predict DALYs from NCDs to 2050. Results: The absolute level of DALYs caused by NCDs increased by 7.460 million from 1990 to 2019, and the age structure contributed 186.0% (95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs): 178.4%-193.6%), population size contributed 77.0% (95% UIs: 69.5%-80.8%), all other causes contributed -163.0% (95% UIs:-163.1%- -159.3%). DALYs caused by NCDs consist of 2.527 million YLLs and 4.934 million YLDs, in which the contribution of age structure to YLLs and YLDs was 414.6% (95% UIs: 396.2%-432.5%) and 69.1% (95% UIs: 66.7%-71.4%), respectively. From 2019 to 2050, the diseases with increased DALYs due to changes in age structure are cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, chronic respiratory diseases, neurological disorders, sense organ diseases, diabetes and kidney diseases, musculoskeletal disorders, digestive diseases, mental disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases in descending order. Conclusions: From 1990 to 2019, except for skin and subcutaneous diseases, the burden of other NCDs attributable to population aging increased, mainly due to disability. By 2050, the burden of NCDsattributable to population aging will continue to rise.

Study on Sustainable Development Oriented Community Public Hospital in China Based on Optimal Decision Making Model for Environment Renovation

Community public hospital provides public health and basic medical services, and their construction environment has an important impact on the health and well-being of the residents. Due to the long construction period of most community hospitals, the population expansion and the change in age structure have led to a mismatch between the needs of patients and the current situation, which is in urgent need of renovation. This paper aims to support the government and hospitals in making decisions by eliminating the blind spots in capital investment and benefit evaluation. In this study, environmental modification design variables are first established, and on this basis, the fuzzy Delphi method is used to understand the willingness for renovation on the part of patients, accompanying personnel, staff, healthcare workers as well as hospital administrators. Besides, the I-S model is used to identify the renovation projects that would maximize user satisfaction. Furthermore, the differences between patients and medical staff are compared. The ODM (Optimal Decision-making) model is used to evaluate the cost investment and benefits, which provides support for the decision-making of government and hospitals. The results clarify the key renovation design variables that can significantly improve user satisfaction and extend them into renovation strategies that can be landed, and identify renovation strategies with larger improvement scores and the range of renovation funds that maximize benefits to promote the sustainable development of community public hospitals. It can be seen that the ODM model can also be well applied to the renovation of community healthcare services. In addition, the reference classification and design variables should be adjusted according to the characteristics of China, taking into consideration the specificity of individual hospitals.

Effect of demographic transition on economic growth: does economic freedom matter? Evidence from ECOWAS countries

According to the economic literature, for a country to benefit from the demographic dividend, it must first undergo a demographic transition, which describes the shift of a population from a stage of high fertility and mortality to one of low fertility and mortality. This transition, which results in a temporary increase in the share of the working age population, opens up a huge window of opportunity if the sound policies are implemented. Indeed, the literature indicates that local conditions can limit the expected effects of the change in age structure on economic growth. In this study, we focus on the role of economic freedom institutions in ECOWAS region by analysing the consequences of the interaction between economic freedom indicators and the growth rate in the share of the working age population on economic growth over the period 1996–2018. To do so, the study uses a robust technique, namely the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) method, which takes into account both the dependence and the heterogeneity of the individuals in the panel. The estimation shows that an increase in the share of the working age population only has a positive effect on economic growth when countries have better economic freedom institutions. This contribution is made in particular through improvements in indicators of investment freedom, financial freedom and government integrity. These results call on policy makers in the region to improve these dimensions in particular to enable their economies to benefit from the demographic transition dividend.

Endovascular interventions in outpatient care

Endovascular arterial revascularisations for the treatment of symptomatic peripheral arterial disease are constantly increasing in importance and number due to the changing age structure and high numbers of comorbidities in the German population. Patients with peripheral artery disease are often at increased risk for peri- and post-procedural complications including severe cardiovascular events. Due to limited financial and human resources and considerable risks of hospitalization, endovascular interventions that were previously reserved for hospitalized patients are now progressively considered to be performed as day case procedures. More than one third of these procedures are performed in Germany by internists with a specialization in angiology. In the current position paper the German Society of Angiology endorsed by the European Society of Vascular Medicine, summarizes the requirements and risk factors to be considered for the planning, safe performance and post procedural care of endovascular revascularizations in outpatients. The performance of endovascular procedures for peripheral artery disease both in hospitalised and outpatients should be accompanied by a mandatory quality assurance process that should not only capture procedural data, but also require documentation of complications and longterm outcome.

Burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer in North Africa and Middle East countries, 1990 to 2019: Results from the GBD study 2019.

To provide estimates on the regional and national burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer and its attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2019 in the North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data were used. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), death, incidence, and prevalence rates were categorized by sex and age groups in the NAME region, in 21 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Decomposition analysis was performed to calculate the proportion of responsible factors in the emergence of new cases. Data are presented as point estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). In the NAME region, TBL cancer caused 15,396 and 57,114 deaths in women and men, respectively, in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased by 0.7% (95% UI -20.6 to 24.1) and reached 16.8 per 100,000 (14.9 to 19.0) in 2019. All the age-standardized indices had a decreasing trend in men and an increasing trend in women from 1990 to 2019. Turkey (34.9 per 100,000 [27.6 to 43.5]) and Sudan (8.0 per 100,000 [5.2 to 12.5]) had the highest and lowest age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPRs) in 2019, respectively. The highest and lowest absolute slopes of change in ASPR, from 1990 to 2019, were seen in Bahrain (-50.0% (-63.6 to -31.7)) and the United Arab Emirates (-1.2% (-34.1 to 53.8)), respectively. The number of deaths attributable to risk factors was 58,816 (51,709 to 67,323) in 2019 and increased by 136.5%. Decomposition analysis showed that population growth and age structure change positively contributed to new incident cases. More than 80% of DALYs could be decreased by controlling risk factors, particularly tobacco use. The incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates of TBL cancer increased, and the death rate remained unchanged from 1990 to 2019. All the indices and contribution of risk factors decreased in men but increased in women. Tobacco is still the leading risk factor. Early diagnosis and tobacco cessation policies should be improved.

Population Changes with a Special Reference to Mortality

The age structure of a population is governed largely by demographic factors, though these factors in turn are influenced by economic and social conditions. The three factors that contribute to changes in population age structure are fertility, mortality and migration. These demographic factors are reasonably independent of each other. The key components of population changes such as fertility, mortality, and migration are always measured as age- and time-specific events. Mortality is defined as the estimated total number of deaths in a population of a given sex and/or age, divided by the total number of this population, expressed per 100,000 population, for a given year, in a given country, territory, or geographic area, Social Awareness and Actions to Neutralize Pneumonia Successfully (SAANS) initiative implemented since 2019 for reduction of Childhood morbidity and mortality due to pneumonia. The principal reason for the higher rate of population growth, particularly between 1941 and 2022, was a substantial drop in the mortality rate without a corresponding decline in the fertility rate. The present paper deals with mortality, its rates, types, causes and remedial measures to reduce mortality rates.

Effects of population age structure on parenteral antimicrobial use estimations

Antimicrobial use (AMU) is conventionally reported as unadjusted defined daily doses (DDDs) or population-adjusted DDDs per 1000 inhabitants per day (DID). DID is frequently used to monitor national AMU trends, this metric does not intrinsically take temporal changes in population age structure into account. We examined the effects of population age structure on DID estimates of parenteral AMU in Japan, and predicted future trends in DDDs based on population projections. Parenteral AMU data from 2013 to 2018 were acquired from a national claims database. We assessed temporal trends in parenteral AMU by age group (children aged < 15 years, working-age persons aged 15–64 years, and older persons aged ≥ 65 years) using both DID and DDDs. In addition, we modeled DDD predictions based on age-specific population projections from 2019 to 2030. DID values for older persons were 8.08–10.15 times and 5.43–5.63 times higher than in children and working-age persons, respectively. DID was stable, but DDDs increased in older persons. The prediction models showed that DDDs will continue to increase until 2030 if DID remains steady or decreases. DID estimates were skewed by the older population. More rigorous antimicrobial stewardship efforts targeting geriatric care are needed to counter the aging-associated increase in AMU.

A Statistical Analysis of the Change in Age Distribution of Spawning Hatchery Salmon

Declines in salmon sizes have been reported primarily as a result of younger maturation rates. This change in age distribution poses serious threats to salmon-dependent peoples and ecological systems. We perform a statistical analysis to examine the change in age structure of spawning Alaskan chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta and Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha using 30 years of hatchery data. To highlight the impacts of this change, we investigate the average number of fry/smolt that each age of spawning chum/Chinook salmon produce. Our findings demonstrate an increase in younger hatchery salmon populations returning to spawn, and fewer amounts of fry produced by younger salmon compared to older salmon. These results suggest the potential risks associated with younger spawning salmon and aim to help better understand salmon behavior in order to sustain and protect healthy salmon populations.

Socialinių paslaugų poreikio vertinimas iš pasiūlos perspektyvos: Panevėžio miesto savivaldybės atvejis

The paper presents the results of assessing the need for social services in Panevėžys City Municipality from the providers’ perspective. It is noted that the city has ambitions to become the most important gateway to the northeast of Lithuania. However, at the same time, it is one of the regions in Lithuania most affected by demographic changes. As the population age structure changes, so are the needs of the established population structure. The growing number of older people is also shifting the priorities for allocating society’s resources in the areas of economics, politics, social solidarity, health care, and social ecology, which implies the need to ensure the volume, composition, and quality of social services. The results of a survey of the population on the quality and demand for social services in the municipality, initiated by the municipality of Panevėžys, characterised the state of social services as not fulfilling expectations. In the context of the development of services, this study aims to assess the situation in the social services field from the providers’ point of view. The objectives of the study are focused on revealing the attitudes of social service providers towards the quality of services provided and the need for new services. The methods of data collection were interviews, and descriptive content analysis was used for processing. As a result of the research, the position on the supply of social services in Panevėžys City Municipality was divided. On the one hand, it was acknowledged that over the last 3 years, changes were observed in the city regarding the scope and structure of social services, although, in many cases, determined by changes in the external environment. In this sense, the growing role of the municipality as a change initiator was also mentioned. On the other hand, the shortage of specialists in certain areas, the workload, emotional burnout, lack of motivation of the staff, inefficient administration of social services and lack of interinstitutional cooperation and coordination have been identified as fundamental issues to be tackled, which are linked to the quality of the services that are being called into question. The study has shown a particular need to extend the scope of home care to social care and social care to daycare, intensifying short- and long-term social care. There is no clear need to expand the scope of social institutions. In terms of supply, the declared approach is to differentiate between institutions based on their capacity to ensure quality, considering the volume of activities, competencies, resources, and potential if there is a need for new social services in the city. The need for new social service providers has emerged.

Population age structure, asset price, and financial stability

AbstractBased on the data collected from 32 countries, the empirical test is conducted by constructing the financial stability index FSCI (Financial Stability Conditions Index). Results found that the changes in population age structure will affect financial stability, but the effects of different age structures are inconsistent, and there is country heterogeneity. The laborers are the main force in financial markets and significantly contribute to financial stability. The elderly population is also conducive to long‐term financial stability due to their low‐risk attitude. Results also confirmed that a change in population age structure affects household asset allocation prices.

Demographic Dividend or Demographic Threat in Pakistan?

Population growth and size have remained the focus of debate for centuries but the recent demographic transition in developing countries has made social scientists take note of the changing age structure of the population as well. As a result of declining population growth and consequent changes in age structure, the proportion of working-age population is increasing in most developing countries. An associated decline in the dependent age population offers a window of opportunity, referred to as the ‘demographic dividend’. Pakistan is also going through the demographic transition, and is experiencing a once-in-a-lifetime demographic dividend as the working-age population bulges and the dependency ratio declines. This paper looks into the demographic dividend being offered to Pakistan and its implications for the country, mainly through three mechanisms: labour supply, savings, and human capital. For economic benefits to materialise, there is a need for policies dealing with education, public health, and those that promote labour market flexibility and provide incentives for investment and savings. On the contrary, if appropriate policies are not formulated, the demographic dividend might, in fact, be a cost, leading to unemployment and an unbearable strain on education, health, and old age security.

Biological structure and abundance dynamics of Pacific rainbow smelt Osmerus dentex (Osmeridae) of the Amur river

Data on spawning migrations, biology and abundance of the spawning group of the pacific rainbow smelt Osmerus dentex of the Amur River in the period from 2014 to 2021 are presented. According to the data of mass labeling of producers, the smelt extracted in the Amur estuary and the Amur riverbed belongs to one unit of stock, the migration routes of producers and the spawning rate have been clarified, and a decrease in the number of spawning herds has been recorded. Analysis of the main biological indicators revealed a significantly significant (p&lt;0.001) decrease in size and mass characteristics, a change in age structure, and a tendency to increase the proportion of females in the spawning herd. The analysis of fertility dynamics revealed a decrease in the indicators of individual and relative fertility of fish of the spawning herd in 2017 (p&lt;0,001), however, in general, the observed changes fit into the range of average long-term fluctuations.

Changes in PM2.5-related health burden in China's poverty and non-poverty areas during 2000–2020: A health inequality perspective

China suffers from severe PM2.5 pollution that has resulted in a huge health burden. Such PM2.5-related health burden has long been suspected to differ between China's poverty-stricken areas (PAs) and non-poverty-stricken areas (NPAs). Yet, evidence-based examination of this long-held belief, which is critical as a barrier of environmental injustice to advancing China's sustainability, is still missing. Here our study shows that the PM2.5 pollution is more serious in China's NPAs than PAs—with their annual averages being respectively 54.83 μg/m3 and 43.63 μg/m3—causing higher premature mortality in the NPAs. Compared to economic inequality, China's total PM2.5-related premature mortality was relatively evenly distributed during 2000–2015 across regions of varying levels of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita but increased slightly in 2015–2020 owing to the dramatic change in age structure. The elderly population increased by 31 %. PM2.5-related premature deaths were more severe for populations of low socioeconomic status, and such environmental health inequalities could be amplified by population aging. Additionally, population migration from China's PAs to developed cities contributed to 638, 779, 303, 954, and 896 premature deaths in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, respectively. Changes in the age structure (53 %) and PM2.5 concentration (28 %) had the greatest impact on premature deaths, followed by changes in population (12 %) and baseline mortality (8 %). The contribution rate of changes in the age structure and PM2.5 concentration was higher in PAs than in NPAs. Our findings provide insight into PM2.5-related premature death and environmental inequality, and may inform more equitable clean air policies to achieve China's sustainable development goals.

The impact of the age structure of active population on agricultural activity rate: The case study of the Timok Krajina region

Abstract As agricultural activity is primarily linked to rural areas, negative demographic trends characterising them present as one of the basic factors of size and age structure changes in the agricultural population. On the other hand, the modernisation of agricultural production, combined with various stimulating mechanisms, impacts its attractiveness, thus influencing the number and age structure of agricultural producers. Change in the overall agricultural activity rate reflects these two processes, making it suitable to be analysed by quantification of effects that produce these changes by applying Das Gupta’s decomposition method. The Timok Krajina region is chosen as a characteristic example due to the recent and relatively significant rise in the overall activity rate in agriculture, in contrast to the national level, where a constant decline in this rate is present. This research focuses on the difference that occurred in the last intercensal period (between 2002 and 2011), aiming to determine the impact of changes in the age structure of the active population that performs an occupation on the change of overall activity rate in agriculture in the Timok Krajina region. The research results depict that the changes in activity rate in agriculture in the examined period almost completely occurred under the influence of demographic factors, while other factors, marked as the rate effects, had a symbolic impact.

YAŞLANAN NÜFUS MİLLİ GELİRİ NASIL ETKİLER? G-20 ÜLKELERİNDEN KANITLAR

Doğum oranlarındaki azalış, beklenen yaşam süresindeki artış küresel yaş yapısında önemli bir değişime neden olmaktadır. Toplam nüfus içerisinde yaş gruplarının oranının değişmesi, özellikle yaşlı nüfus oranının artması ile ekonomik hayatta bazı değişimler yaşanmıştır. Bu değişimler genç, çalışma çağı ve yaşlı nüfus grupları arasında işgücü arzı, tasarruf, tüketim, kamusal harcamalar ve beşerî sermaye gibi konuların farklılaşmasına yol açmıştır. Nüfustaki artışın ekonomik büyümeyi tüketim ve tasarruf modelleri, kamusal sosyal harcama ve insan sermayesi olarak üç mekanizma yoluyla etkileyeceği belirtilmektedir. Bu çalışma ile nüfus yaşlanmasının milli geliri nasıl etkileyeceği açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır. Bu bağlamda G20 ülkeleri verileri kullanılarak panel veri analizi yöntemi ile demografik değişkenler ve milli gelir arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Analiz sonuçları, toplam nüfus içinde çalışma çağındaki nüfusun oranı arttıkça milli gelirin arttığı görülmektedir. Ayrıca toplam nüfus içinde yaşlı nüfusun artmasının da milli geliri arttırdığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Elde edilen bu sonuçlar istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır.

Hundreds of billions of silent outbreaks: A historic outbreak record of the gall midge Schizomyia castanopsisae (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae) on the Izu Islands, Tokyo, Japan, and its potential mechanism

AbstractHerbivore outbreaks cause serious damage to forest trees. In recent decades, outbreaks of the gall midge Schizomyia castanopsisae (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae) inducing inflorescence galls on Castanopsis sieboldii (Fagaceae) occurred in the Izu Islands, Tokyo, Japan. We investigated the gall density on the islands and estimated the larval population on Miyakejima Island. We also surveyed seasonal changes in larval age structure, presence of natural enemies, larval cold tolerance, and thermal effects on the adult emergence. In addition, we conducted molecular phylogenetic analyses of S. castanopsisae populations among different localities. The gall density was particularly high in southern parts (from Miyakejima to Aogashima) of the Izu Islands. The gall midge seemed to have been expanding its range toward northern parts in recent years. On Miyakejima, the larval population was estimated to be approximately 158 and 36 bn in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Parasitoids were not found in the dissection of galls. A cold temperature treatment did not affect the percentage of adult emergence. Developmental zero and thermal constant during the period from larval departure to adult emergence were estimated to be 4.7°C and 588.2°C‐days in males and 7.4°C and 476.2°C‐days in females, and the adults were predicted to emerge in April. Populations in Kyushu were genetically distinct from those in Okinawajima and the Izu Islands, but a common haplotype was found between the latter two localities. These imply that S. castanopsisae on the Izu Islands may be a recent invasion, and the absence of natural enemies causes its outbreaks.

Increases in ozone-related mortality in China over 2013–2030 attributed to historical ozone deterioration and future population aging

We systematically examine historical and future changes in premature respiratory mortalities attributable to ozone (O3) exposure (O3-mortality) in China and identify the leading cause of respective change for the first time. The historical assessment for 2013–2019 is based on gridded O3 concentrations generated by a multi-source-data-fusion algorithm; the future prediction for 2019–2030 uses gridded O3 concentrations projected by four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. During 2013–2019, national annual O3-mortality is 176.3 thousand (95%CI: 123.5–224.0 thousand) averaged over 2013–2019 with an increasing trend of 14.1 thousand yr−1 (95%CI: 10.2–17.4 thousand yr−1); sensitivity experiments show that the O3-mortality varies at a rate of +12.7 (95%CI: 9.2–15.6), +5.8 (95%CI: 4.0–7.4), +1.0 (95%CI: 0.7–1.2), −5.4 (95%CI: −6.9 to −3.7) thousand yr−1, owing to changes in O3 concentration, population age structure, population size, mortality rate for respiratory disease, respectively. The deterioration of O3 air quality, shown as significant increase in O3 concentration, is identified as the primary factor which contributes 90.1 % of 2013–2019 O3-mortality rise. Compared with O3-mortality estimated in this study, the widely-used O3-mortality assessment method based on urban-site-dominant O3 measurements generates close national O3-mortality but overestimates (underestimates) provincial O3-mortality in coastal (central) provinces. From 2019 to 2030, national O3-mortality is projected to increase by 50.4–103.7 thousand under different SSP scenarios. The change in age structure (i.e. population aging) alone will result in significant O3-mortality rises of 137.9–160.5 thousand. Compared with 2013–2019 rapid O3 increase (+2.5 μg m−3 yr−1 at national level), O3 concentrations are projected to increase at a lower rate (+0.4 μg m−3 yr−1 in SSP5–8.5) or even decrease (−0.7 μg m−3 yr−1 in SSP1-2.6) from 2019 to 2030. Therefore, population aging, in place of O3 air quality deterioration, will become the leading cause of future O3-mortality rises during the coming decade.

COVID-19 and excess mortality in Russia: Regional estimates of life expectancy losses in 2020 and excess deaths in 2021.

Accurately counting the human cost of the COVID-19 at both the national and regional level is a policy priority. The Russian Federation currently reports one of the higher COVID-19 mortality rates in the world; but estimates of mortality differ significantly. Using a statistical method accounting for changes in the population age structure, we present the first national and regional estimates of excess mortality for 2021; calculations of excess mortality by age, gender, and urban/rural status for 2020; and mean remaining years of life expectancy lost at the regional level. We estimate that there were 351,158 excess deaths in 2020 and 678,022 in 2021 in the Russian Federation; and, in 2020, around 2.0 years of life expectancy lost. While the Russian Federation exhibits very high levels of excess mortality compared to other countries, there is a wide degree of regional variation: in 2021, excess deaths expressed as a percentage of expected deaths at the regional level range from 27% to 52%. Life expectancy loss is generally greater for males; while excess mortality is greater in urban areas. For Russia as whole, an average person who died due to the pandemic in 2020 would have otherwise lived for a further 14 more years (and as high as 18 years in some regions), disproving the widely held view that excess mortality during the pandemic period was concentrated among those with few years of life remaining-especially for females. At a regional level, less densely populated, more remote regions, rural regions appear to have fared better regarding excess mortality and life expectancy loss-however, a part of this differential could be owing to measurement issues. The calculations demonstrate more clearly the true degree of the human cost of the pandemic in the Russian Federation.

Impact of host age on viral and bacterial communities in a waterbird population

Wildlife harbour pathogens that can harm human or livestock health and are the source of most emerging infectious diseases. It is rarely considered how changes in wildlife population age-structures or how age-stratified behaviours might alter the level of pathogen detection within a species, or risk of spillover to other species. Micro-organisms that occur in healthy animals can be an important model for understanding and predicting the dynamics of pathogens of greater health concern, which are hard to study in wild populations due to their relative rarity. We therefore used a metagenomic approach to jointly characterise viral and prokaryotic carriage in faeces collected from a healthy wild bird population (Cygnus olor; mute swan) that has been subject to long-term study. Using 223 samples from known individuals allowed us to compare differences in prokaryotic and eukaryotic viral carriage between adults and juveniles at an unprecedented level of detail. We discovered and characterised 77 novel virus species, of which 21% belong putatively to bird-infecting families, and described the core prokaryotic microbiome of C. olor. Whilst no difference in microbiota diversity was observed between juveniles and adult individuals, 50% (4/8) of bird-infecting virus families (picornaviruses, astroviruses, adenoviruses and bornaviruses) and 3.4% (9/267) of prokaryotic families (including Helicobacteraceae, Spirochaetaceae and Flavobacteriaceae families) were differentially abundant and/or prevalent between juveniles and adults. This indicates that perturbations that affect population age-structures of wildlife could alter circulation dynamics and spillover risk of microbes, potentially including pathogens.

County-Level City Shrinkage in China: Representation, Cause, and Response

Shrinkage in China’s cities has gradually received increasing attention. Specifically, county-level shrinking cities are numerous and widely distributed. City shrinkage even appears throughout Zhejiang Province, which is highly developed and has stable economic growth. County-level shrinking cities resulting from regional competition can still maintain long-term and stable economic growth, but their economic growth lags behind the whole competitive region. We identified five county-level shrinking cities in Zhejiang Province, and characterized the shrinkage phenomenon in Changshan County using census, nighttime lighting (NTL), and Tencent Location Big Data. City shrinkage resulted from the comprehensive effects of declining traditional industries, backward per capita income, highly skilled labor force shortages, and population age structure changes. Given the shrinkage status of Changshan, we proposed countermeasures and suggestions including aspects of industrial development, urban planning, social governance, and care for the elderly.