Aerosol Direct Effect Research Articles

Future photovoltaic potential in India: navigating the interplay between air pollution control and climate change mitigation

Abstract India has set ambitious solar energy targets to meet its climate commitments. However, climate change, already evident in the country, poses significant challenges to solar power generation. Therefore, assessing the impact of climate change on future photovoltaic potential in India is essential. This study evaluates the mid-century (2041-2050) solar photovoltaic potential across Indian power grids using CMIP6 models under two scenarios: SSP2-4.5 (moderate climate action with intermediate air pollution) and SSP5-8.5 (weak climate action with strong air pollution control). The results indicate that the nationally averaged photovoltaic potential is projected to decrease by -2.3±0.6% (SSP5-8.5) to -3.3±0.9% (SSP2-4.5) compared to the 1985-2014 baseline, primarily due to reduced radiation and increased temperatures. Additionally, cell temperatures are expected to rise by 1.5±0.13°C (SSP2-4.5) to 2±0.11°C (SSP5-8.5), leading to efficiency losses and additional 18±5 days under SSP2-4.5 (26±3 days under SSP5-8.5) of efficiency de-rating, particularly in solar-rich regions. This translates to a loss of 600±160 GWh under SSP2-4.5 and 840±100 GWh under SSP5-8.5, based on the solar generation status of 2023-24. Overall, SSP5-8.5 projects a smaller reduction in photovoltaic potential, it also predicts greater temperature-induced efficiency losses compared to SSP2-4.5, due to aerosol direct effect and weak climate action. Finally, this assessment highlights the need for combined climate and pollution mitigation efforts to boost India’s photovoltaic potential and secure a sustainable, resilient energy future.

Increasing aerosol direct effect despite declining global emissions in MPI-ESM1.2

Abstract. Anthropogenic aerosol particles partially mask global warming driven by greenhouse gases, both directly by reflecting sunlight back to space and indirectly by increasing cloud reflectivity. In recent decades, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols have declined globally and at the same time shifted from the North American and European regions, foremost to Southeast Asia. Using simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2), we find that the direct effect of aerosols has continued to increase despite declining emissions. Concurrently, the indirect effect has diminished in approximate proportion to the emissions. In this model, which employs parameterized aerosol effects with constant regional direct effect efficiency, the enhanced efficiency of aerosol radiative forcing in emissions is associated with less cloud masking, longer atmospheric residence times, and differences in aerosol optical properties.

The impact of coupled 3D shortwave radiative transfer on surface radiation and cumulus clouds over land

Abstract. Radiative transfer is a 3D process, but most atmospheric models consider radiation only in the vertical direction for computational efficiency. This results in inaccurate surface radiation fields, as the horizontal transport of radiation is neglected. Previous work on 3D radiative effects mainly used 3D radiative transfer uncoupled from the flow solver. In contrast, our current work uses 3D radiative transfer coupled to the flow solver to study its impact on the development of clouds and the resulting impact on the domain-averaged surface solar irradiance. To this end, we performed a series of realistic large-eddy simulations with MicroHH. To improve the level of realism of our radiation, we first included the direct effect of aerosols using aerosol data from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global reanalysis. Next, we performed simulations with 1D radiative transfer and with a coupled ray tracer for 12 d on which shallow cumulus clouds formed over Cabauw, the Netherlands. In general, simulations with the coupled ray tracer have a higher domain-averaged liquid water path, larger clouds, and similar cloud cover compared to simulations with 1D radiative transfer. Furthermore, the domain-averaged direct radiation is decreased with 3D radiative transfer, and the diffuse radiation is increased. However, the average difference in global radiation is less than 1 W m−2, as the increase in global radiation from uncoupled 3D radiative transfer is counterbalanced by a decrease in global radiation caused by changes in cloud properties.

Surface albedo regulates aerosol direct climate effect

Aerosols and Surface Albedo (SA) are critical in balancing Earth’s energy budget. With the changes of surface types and corresponding SA in recent years, an intriguing yet unresolved question emerges: how does Aerosol Direct Radiative Effect (ADRE) and its warming effect (AWE) change with varying SA? Here we investigate the critical SA marking ADRE shift from negative to positive under varying aerosol properties, along with the impact of SA on the ADRE. Results show that AWE often occurs in mid-high latitudes or regions with high-absorptivity aerosols, with critical SA ranging from 0.18 to 0.96. Thinner and/or more absorptive aerosols more readily cause AWE statistically. In regions where the SA trend is significant, SA has decreased at −0.012/decade, causing a −0.2 ± 0.17 W/m²/decade ADRE change, with the most pronounced changes in the Northern Hemisphere during June-July. As SA declines, we highlight enhanced ADRE cooling or reduced AWE, indicating aerosols’ stronger cooling, partly countering the energy rise from SA reduction.

Aerosol effects during heat waves in summer 2022 and responses to emission change over China

This study explores aerosol direct, indirect, and feedback effects on meteorology and fine particulate matter during heat waves of August 2022 over eastern China by using an online coupled regional climate–chemistry–aerosol model. In this period, aerosols exerted mean direct (DRE) and indirect (IRE) radiative effects of −3.9 Wm−2 and −2.4 Wm−2 at TOA, which totally caused a decrease in average surface air temperature by 0.3 °C over east China, accompanied by decreases in PBLH (planetary boundary layer height) and precipitation and an increase in PM2.5 concentration. With the anthropogenic emission reduction from 2013 to 2022, DRE apparently decreased while IRE changed little, leading to a decrease in total aerosol radiative effect (TRE) by 27% at TOA. The weakened TRE resulted in increases in surface air temperature and precipitation by 0.14 °C and 2.7 mm, respectively, on average over east China, with the maximum warming exceeding 0.5 °C in BTH (Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei province). This study highlights a warming trend due to weakened TRE, which may exacerbate heat wave, and an increasing importance of aerosol IRE relative to DRE due to weak sensitivity of cloud properties to aerosol change during the emission reduction.

Aerosol-Induced Changes in Atmospheric and Oceanic Heat Transports in the CESM2 Large Ensemble

Abstract The total poleward energy transport (PET) is set by the top of atmosphere radiation flux, and is therefore sensitive to any process which can alter those fluxes, particularly in the shortwave. One example is the direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols, which increase the local reflection of solar radiation back to space. The historic emission of sulphur dioxide, which peaked in the northern midlatitudes during the 1980s, has been proposed as a primary contributor to historic anomalies in cross-equatorial energy transport, as well as related processes such as a shift in the tropical rainband. In this study, we analyze simulations from the CESM2 large ensemble and single-forcing projects to better understand the forced response of PET to historical forcings. First, analysis of the single-forcing project reveals that the position of the ITCZ responds in a non-linear manner to greenhouse gas forcing in CESM2. This type of non-linearity has been found previously in the context of the aerosol-only simulations in the CESM2 single-forcing project, but may be the first identification of a similar effect in the greenhouse gas-only simulations. Second, through analysis of the full CESM2 large ensemble simulations, we find that anomalous heat transport occurred in both the atmosphere (through the mean meridional circulation and atmospheric eddies) and in the oceans (through the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific sectors) due to a variety of related processes including the Hadley cells, the midlatitude storm tracks, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and the Pacific wind-driven subtropical gyre.

Tiny rain makers: How aerosols shape extreme rainfall simulation accuracy

Given the rapid spatiotemporal variability of aerosols and their complex impacts on the Earth system, investigating the role of aerosols in modelling extreme weather events, particularly various extreme rainfalls, remains limited. This study explored extreme rainfall simulation sensitivity to aerosol properties, transport and seasonality over the UK and Ireland during four seasons in 2020 by the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model. Two sets of high-resolution simulations, one including aerosol direct and indirect effects and the other one without any aerosol effects, were conducted to investigate the improvements due to aerosol inputs. Meteorological results were verified using ground and satellite observations to examine the reliability of simulations. The 12 extreme rainfall events during the study months were classified by their backward trajectories from the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model, and their simulation accuracies were quantified through six spatiotemporal metrics and one overall score. By comprehensive analyses of the simulation performances under different conditions, it is found that the model performs better in simulating rainfall events driven by sea salt aerosols (SSA) compared to those promoted by anthropogenic aerosols. Air masses transported from the Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean also help achieve higher rainfall simulation accuracy than European air masses. Rainfall simulations for winter and autumn events outperform those for spring and summer events. When considering aerosol effects in simulations, almost half of the events showed improved performance, while an equal number experienced a decrease and a small proportion remained unchanged. The most remarkable improvements are observed in rainfall simulations with higher concentrations of SSA and the participation of anthropogenic aerosols, while simulations promoted only by anthropogenic aerosols all experience performance reductions. The aerosol effects also led to significant increases in monthly rainfalls, accompanied by great reductions of Cl in larger particle size aerosols and NO3 in smaller particle size aerosols.

Changes in the Direct Climate Effect of Black Carbon Aerosols in East Asia Under the “Dual Carbon” Goal of China

AbstractIn the context of China's “dual carbon” goal, emissions of air pollutants are expected to significantly decrease in the future. Thus, the direct climate effects of black carbon (BC) aerosols in East Asia are investigated under this goal using an updated regional climate and chemistry model. The simulated annual average BC concentration over East Asia is approximately 1.29 μg/m3 in the last decade. Compared to those in 2010–2020, both the BC column burden and instantaneous direct radiative forcing in East Asia decrease by more than 55% and 80%, respectively, in the carbon peak year (2030s) and the carbon neutrality year (2060s). Conversely, the BC effective radiative forcing (ERF) and regional climate responses to BC exhibit substantial nonlinearity to emission reduction, possibly resulting from different adjustments of thermal‐dynamic fields and clouds from BC‐radiation interactions. The regional mean BC ERF at the tropopause over East Asia is approximately +1.11 W/m2 in 2010–2020 while negative in the 2060s. BC‐radiation interactions in the present‐day impose a significant annual mean cooling of −0.2 to −0.5 K in central China but warming +0.3 K in the Tibetan Plateau. As China's BC emissions decline, surface temperature responses show a mixed picture compared to 2010–2020, with more cooling in eastern China and Tibet of −0.2 to −0.3 K in the 2030s, but more warming in central China of approximately +0.3 K by the 2060s. The Indian BC might play a more important role in East Asian climate with reduction of BC emissions in China.

Moving beyond the Aerosol Climatology of WRF-Solar: A Case Study over the North China Plain

Abstract Numerical weather prediction (NWP), when accessible, is a crucial input to short-term solar power forecasting. WRF-Solar, the first NWP model specifically designed for solar energy applications, has shown promising predictive capability. Nevertheless, few attempts have been made to investigate its performance under high aerosol loading, which attenuates incoming radiation significantly. The North China Plain is a polluted region due to industrialization, which constitutes a proper testbed for such investigation. In this paper, aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) on three surface shortwave radiation components (i.e., global, beam, and diffuse) during five heavy pollution episodes is studied within the WRF-Solar framework. Results show that WRF-Solar overestimates instantaneous beam radiation up to 795.3 W m−2 when the aerosol DRE is not considered. Although such overestimation can be partially offset by an underestimation of the diffuse radiation of about 194.5 W m−2, the overestimation of the global radiation still reaches 160.2 W m−2. This undesirable bias can be reduced when WRF-Solar is powered by Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) aerosol forecasts, which then translates to accuracy improvements in photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts. This work also compares the forecast performance of the CAMS-powered WRF-Solar with that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model. Under high aerosol loading conditions, the irradiance forecast accuracy generated by WRF-Solar increased by 53.2% and the PV power forecast accuracy increased by 6.8%. Significance Statement Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is the “go-to” approach for achieving high-performance day-ahead solar power forecasting. Integrating time-varying aerosol forecasts into NWP models effectively captures aerosol direct radiation effects, thereby enhancing the accuracy of solar irradiance forecasts in heavily polluted regions. This work not only quantifies the aerosol effects on global, beam, and diffuse irradiance but also reveals the physical mechanisms of irradiance-to-power conversion by constructing a model chain. Using the North China Plain as a testbed, the performance of WRF-Solar on solar power forecasting on five severe pollution days is analyzed. This version of WRF-Solar can outperform the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model, confirming the need for generating high spatial–temporal NWP.

Seamless Modeling of Direct and Indirect Aerosol Effects during April 2020 Wildfire Episode in Ukraine

Wildfires frequently occur in Ukraine during agricultural open-burning seasons in spring and autumn. High aerosol concentrations from fire emissions can significantly affect meteorological processes via direct and indirect aerosol effects. To study these impacts, we selected a severe wildfire episode from April 2020 in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone (CEZ) and its surrounding area as a case study. We employed the Enviro-HIRLAM modeling system to simulate reference (REF) meteorological conditions, along with direct (DAE), indirect (IDAE), and combined (COMB) aerosol effects. In our simulations, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) comprised 70–80% of all aerosol mass in the region, represented in two layers of higher concentrations: one near the surface and the other 3–4 km above the surface. Our simulations showed that the inclusion of aerosol effects into the modeling framework led to colder (up to −3 °C) and drier (relative humidity drop up to −20%) conditions near the surface. We also observed localized changes in cloudiness, precipitation (mainly redistribution), and wind speed (up to ±4 m/s), particularly during the movement of atmospheric cold fronts. Larger uncertainties were observed in coarser model simulations when direct aerosol effects were considered. Quantifying the aerosol effects is crucial for predicting and promptly detecting changes that could exacerbate unfavorable weather conditions and wildfires. Such knowledge is essential for improving the effectiveness of emergency response measures.

Causes for Decadal Trends in Surface Solar Radiation in the Alpine Region in the 1981–2020 Period

AbstractExtending across seven countries, the Alps represent an important element for climate and atmospheric circulation in Central Europe. Its complex topography affects processes on different scales within the atmospheric system. This is of major relevance for the decadal trends in surface solar radiation (SSR), also known as periods of global dimming and brightening (GDB). In this study we analyzed data from 38 stations in and around the Swiss and Austrian Alps, over a period ranging from the 1980s up to the 2020s, with the aim of characterizing the spatio‐temporal variations of the GDB and understanding the causes for such trends in this region. Our results show a different behavior in the SSR decadal trends in the western part of the Alps in comparison to the eastern part. Our results also suggest a remarkable difference between the causes of such trends at the stations at low altitudes in comparison to the stations at higher altitudes. Significant contributions from changes in cloud optical depth and surface albedo to the SSR decadal trends at high elevation sites were also found, in contrast to a substantial clear‐sky forcing that strongly dominates at low elevations. Results from previous literature and available data suggest that cloud optical depth changes at high altitudes and clear‐sky forcing at low altitudes could be associated with the indirect and direct aerosol effects, respectively, due to differing pollution levels at low and high elevation sites.

The role of atmospheric aerosols on severe convective precipitation in a Mediterranean coastal region

Liguria, located in the Northwest of Italy, is one of the Italian regions hit in the recent past by some of the most severe precipitation events among the ones observed in Italy. From a synoptic point of view, similar configurations characterize the extreme events that affected Liguria, i.e. the simultaneous presence of a deep pressure minimum west of the region and a strong high pressure over eastern Europe. Such conditions are favorable to the triggering of a quasi-stationary mesoscale V-shaped convective system over the Ligurian Sea. Furthermore, this kind of configuration is favorable to the formation and intrusion of wide plumes of aerosol, mainly mineral dust from the Sahara Desert and sea salt aerosols generated under high wind conditions in the Mediterranean basin. The present study aims at evaluating the impact that these aerosol plumes can have on meteorological fields during the triggering and evolution of the deep convective systems responsible for the Liguria flooding events. This study is carried out through numerical simulations performed with the WRF-Chem model, version 4.0. In particular, our main aim is to investigate the influence that the so-called direct (aerosol-radiation) and indirect (aerosol-cloud) interactions may have on mesoscale V-shape convective systems and on the associated rainfall events. In the simulations in which the direct aerosol effects are switched on, a consistent weakening signal is identified in the wind speed in all simulations; a major role seems to be played by the increase of downward longwave radiation in the presence of aerosol, that, by reducing the land-sea temperature gradient, causes the weakening of surface winds. More complex are the consequences of aerosol on the amount/intensity of the resulting precipitations. Unexpectedly, a reduced convergence is not necessarily associated with a weakening of precipitation and in half of the studied cases the interaction between aerosol, moisture and radiation increases the instability despite the reduced dynamical forcing due to the weakening of the convergence.

A modeling study of aerosol effect on summer nocturnal convective precipitation in Beijing

Using the WRF model with chemistry (WRF-Chem), this study investigates the potential contributions of aerosol direct (ADE) and aerosol indirect (AIE) effects on the nocturnal convective precipitation occurred on 9–10 September 2019 in Beijing. It shows that ADE plays a more important role in spatiotemporal changes of heavy precipitation than AIE in urban areas. Further simulation analyses show that ADE suppresses precipitation by inducing greater surface shortwave radiative cooling and stability before 13:00 (UTC, hereafter) on 9 September, which reduces convective available potential energy (CAPE) losses and then increases the later CAPE. The ADE-induced CAPE increase makes updrafts stronger, increasing cloudiness and transporting more cloud water into the upper troposphere. This, in turn, causes greater latent heat release from freezing and then stronger convection, producing higher rain rate during 13:00–21:00. During 12:00–18:00, AIE causes a decrease in CAPE, which weakens updrafts. AIE decreases the snow mixing ratio above 700 hPa except at 15:00–16:00 on 9 September, which can decrease the release of latent heat from freezing, contributing to the decrease in precipitation after 18:00. Due to the greater stability before 10:00 and the longer time required for updrafts to overcome this stability, ADE necessitates 2–3 h to adjust the simulated rainfall time series.

The radiative impact of biomass burning aerosols on dust emissions over Namibia and the long-range transport of smoke observed during the Aerosols, Radiation and Clouds in southern Africa (AEROCLO-sA) campaign

Abstract. The radiative effects of biomass burning aerosols (BBAs) on low-level atmospheric circulation over southern Africa are investigated on 5 September 2017 during the Aerosols, Radiation and Clouds in southern Africa (AEROCLO-sA) field campaign. This is conducted using a variety of in situ and remote sensing observations, as well as two 5 d ensemble simulations made with the Meso-NH mesoscale model, one including the direct and semi-direct radiative effects of aerosols and one in which these effects are not included. We show that the radiative impact of BBA building up over a period of 5 d in the Meso-NH simulations can lead to significantly different circulations at low and middle levels, thereby affecting dust emissions over southern Namibia and northwestern South Africa as well as the transport of BBA in a so-called “river of smoke”. While most of the regional-scale dynamics, thermodynamics and composition features are convincingly represented in the simulation with BBA radiative effects, neglecting the radiative impact of BBA leads to unrealistic representations of (i) the low-level jet (LLJ) over the plateau, which is the main low-level dynamic feature fostering dust emission, and (ii) the mid-level dynamics pertaining to the transport of BBA from the fire-prone regions in the tropics to the mid-latitudes. For instance, when the BBA radiative impacts are not included, the LLJ is too weak and not well established over night, and the developing convective planetary boundary layer (PBL) is too deep compared to observations. The deeper convective PBL over Etosha and surrounding areas is related to the enhanced anomalous upward motion caused by the eastern displacement of the river of smoke. This eastern displacement is, in turn, related to the weaker southerly African easterly jet. Both ensemble simulations provide clear evidence that the enhanced near-surface extinction coefficient values detected from observations over Etosha are related to the downward mixing of BBA in the developing convective boundary layer rather than dust being emitted as a result of the LLJ breakdown after sunrise. This study suggests that the radiative effect of BBAs needs to be taken into account to properly forecast dust emissions in Namibia.

The direct and indirect radiative effects of sea salt aerosols over the western Pacific using an online-coupled regional chemistry-climate model with a developed sea salt emission scheme

The direct and indirect radiative effects of sea salt aerosols (SSA) over the western Pacific Ocean of East Asia for the year 2014 are investigated by using an online-coupled regional chemistry-climate model (RIEMS-Chem) with a developed sea salt emission scheme (G03SSTRH) by considering the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) and relative humidity (RH) on sea salt generation. Model comparison with observations at coastal and island sites demonstrates the G03SSTRH scheme apparently improve model simulation for sea salt concentration, with the overall model-observation bias for PM10 concentration reduced from 29% to 16% and more evident improvement at northern sites of the western Pacific. It is noteworthy that compared to the experiment with the old SSA emission scheme (G03), the G03SSTRH experiment substantially alters the spatial distribution of mass concentration and radiative effects of sea salt, shifting the maximum value center from the ocean northeast of Japan to the southern parts of the western Pacific with the maximum value increasing to some extent. SSA exerts a negative radiative effect at the top of atmosphere (TOA), in which direct radiative effect (DRESSA) dominates over indirect radiative effect (IRESSA) in the western Pacific. The oceanic and annual mean DRESSA, IRESSA, and total radiative effect (TRESSA) are estimated to be −1.22 W/m2, −0.46 W/m2, and −1.65 W/m2, respectively, from the G03SSTRH experiment, which are 16%, 5%, and 12% stronger than those from the G03 experiment, and the seasonal mean DRESSA in G03SSTRH are approximately 45% and 32% higher than those in G03 in summer and autumn. Distinct seasonality of SSA radiative effects is revealed in the G03SSTRH experiment, showing stronger DRESSA and IRESSA in summer and autumn than those in spring and winter, in marked contrast to the little seasonality in the G03 experiment. This study provides a comprehensive regional estimation of radiative effects induced by SSA and reveals the significant effect of different SSA emission schemes on both mass concentration, radiative effects and seasonal variation of SSA over the western Pacific.

Impact of Saharan dust outbreaks on short‐range weather forecast errors in Europe

AbstractMineral dust, the most abundant atmospheric aerosol by mass, interacts with radiation directly and alters cloud properties indirectly. Many operational numerical weather prediction models account for aerosol direct effects by using climatological mean concentrations and neglect indirect effects. This simplification may lead to shortcomings in model forecasts during outbreaks of Saharan dust towards Europe, when climatological mean dust concentrations deviate strongly from actual concentrations. This study investigates errors in model analyses and short‐range forecasts during such events. We investigate a pronounced dust event in March 2021 using the pre‐operational ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic weather and climate model with Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases (ICON‐ART) with prognostic calculation of dust and the operational European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) model, which deploys a dust climatology. We compare model analysis and forecast with measurements from satellite and in situ instruments. We find that inclusion of prognostic aerosol and direct radiative effects from dust improves forecasts of surface radiation during clear‐sky conditions. However, dust‐induced cirrus clouds are strongly underestimated, highlighting the importance of representing indirect effects adequately. These findings are corroborated by systematic quantification of forecast errors against satellite measurements. For this we construct an event catalogue with 49 dust days over Central Europe between January 2018 and March 2022. We classify model cells by simulated and observed cloudiness and simulated dustiness in the total atmospheric column. We find significant overestimations of brightness temperature for cases with dust compared with cases without dust. For surface shortwave radiation, we find median overestimations of 6.2% during cloudy conditions with dust optical depth greater than 0.1, however these are not significant compared with cloudy conditions without dust. Our findings show that the pre‐operational ICON‐ART and the operational IFS model still do not reproduce cloudiness adequately during events with Saharan dust over Central Europe. Missing implementations of prognostic dust, particularly of indirect effects on cloud formation, lead to significant underestimations of cloudiness and potentially overestimations of surface radiation.

Influence of More Mechanistic Representation of Particle Dry Deposition on 1850–2000 Changes in Global Aerosol Burdens and Radiative Forcing

AbstractRobust estimates of historical changes in aerosols are key for accurate constraints on climate sensitivity. Dry deposition is a primary sink of aerosols from the atmosphere. However, most global climate models do not accurately represent observed strong dependencies of dry deposition following turbulent transport on aerosol size. It is unclear whether there is a substantial impact of mischaracterized aerosol deposition velocities on historical aerosol changes. Here we describe improved mechanistic representation of aerosol dry deposition in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global climate model, ModelE, and illustrate the impact on 1850–2000 changes in global aerosol burdens as well as aerosol direct and cloud albedo effects using a set of 1850 and 2000 time slice simulations. We employ two aerosol configurations of ModelE (a “bulk” mass‐based configuration and a configuration that more explicitly represents aerosol size distributions, internal mixing, and microphysics) to explore how model structural differences in aerosol representation alter the response to representation of dry deposition. Both configurations show larger historical increases in the global burdens of non‐dust aerosols with the new dry deposition scheme, by 11% in the simpler mass‐based configuration and 23% in the more complex microphysical configuration. Historical radiative forcing responses, which vary in magnitude from 5% to 12% as well as sign, depend on the aerosol configuration.

Sensitivity of atmospheric rivers to aerosol treatment in regional climate simulations: insights from the AIRA identification algorithm

Abstract. This study analyzed the sensitivity of atmospheric rivers (ARs) to aerosol treatment in regional climate simulations. Three experiments covering the Iberian Peninsula for the period from 1991 to 2010 were examined: (1) an experiment including prescribed aerosols (BASE); (2) an experiment including direct and semi-direct aerosol effects (ARI); and (3) an experiment including direct, semi-direct, and indirect aerosol effects (ARCI). A new regional-scale AR identification algorithm, AIRA, was developed and used to identify around 250 ARs in each experiment. The results showed that spring and autumn ARs were the most frequent, intense, and long-lasting and that ARs could explain up to 30 % of the total accumulated precipitation. The inclusion of aerosols was found to redistribute precipitation, with increases in the areas of AR occurrence. The analysis of common AR events showed that the differences between simulations were minimal in the most intense cases and that a negative correlation existed between mean direction and mean latitude differences. This implies that more zonal ARs in ARI or ARCI with respect to BASE could also be linked to northward deviations. The joint analysis and classification of dust and sea salt aerosol distributions allowed for the common events to be clustered into eight main aerosol configurations in ARI and ARCI. The sensitivity of ARs to different aerosol treatments was observed to be relevant, inducing spatial deviations and integrated water vapor transport (IVT) magnitude reinforcements/attenuations with respect to the BASE simulation depending on the aerosol configuration. Thus, the correct inclusion of aerosol effects is important for the simulation of AR behavior at both global and regional scales, which is essential for meteorological predictions and climate change projections.

Low cloud response to aerosol‐radiation‐cloud interactions: Idealized WRF numerical experiments for EUREC4A project

AbstractAerosols significantly affect cloud microphysics and energy budget in different ways. The contribution of the direct, semi‐direct, and indirect effects of aerosols on radiation are here investigated over the North Atlantic tropical ocean under different aerosol loadings. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model is used to perform a set of numerical idealized experiments, which are forced with prescribed aerosol profiles. We evaluate the effects of aerosols on modeled shallow clouds and surface radiative budget. The results indicate that large aerosol loadings are associated with enhanced cloudiness and reduced precipitation. While the change in rainfall is mainly due to the larger number of smaller droplets, the change in cloudiness is attributed to the effects of absorbing aerosols, mainly dust particles, which are responsible for a rise of temperature that feeds back onto specific humidity. As in the boundary layer the increase of moisture dominates, the net effect is a higher relative humidity, which favors the formation of thin low non‐precipitating clouds. The feedback accounts for a dynamical change in the lower troposphere: shortwave radiation absorption increases temperature at the top of the marine atmospheric boundary‐layer and reduces entrainment of warm and dry air, increasing low level moisture content. Despite the overall increase in cloudiness, daytime cloud cover is reduced. The semi‐direct effect of aerosols on clouds results in a warming of the surface, opposite to the indirect effect.

Examining the vertical heterogeneity of aerosols over the Southern Great Plains

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosols affect the global energy budget by scattering and absorbing sunlight (direct effects) and by changing the microphysical structure, lifetime, and coverage of clouds (indirect effects). Both aerosol direct and indirect effects are affected by the vertical distribution of aerosols in the atmosphere, which is further influenced by a range of processes, such as aerosol dynamics, long-range transport, and entrainment. However, many observations of these processes are based on ground measurements, limiting our ability to understand the vertical distribution of aerosols and simulate their impact on clouds and climate. In this work, we examined the vertical heterogeneity of aerosols over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) using data collected from the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols and Land Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) campaign. The vertical profiles of meteorological and aerosol physiochemical properties up to 2500 m above are examined based on the 38 flights conducted during the HI-SCALE campaign. The aerosol properties over the SGP show strong vertical heterogeneity and seasonal variabilities. The aerosol concentrations at the surface are the highest due to strong emissions at ground level. In general, the mode diameter of aerosols during summer (∼ 100 nm) is larger than that during spring (∼ 30 nm), a result of enhanced condensational growth due to enriched volatile organic compounds in summer. The concentration of aerosols below 30 nm in the boundary layer (BL) (e.g., below 1000 m) during spring is higher than that during summer, a result of the stronger new particle formation (NPF) events due to the reduced condensation sink in spring. In the BL, the size of the aerosols gradually increases with altitude due to condensational growth and cloud processing. However, the chemical composition of the aerosols remained similar, with organics and sulfates representing 59.8 ± 2.2 % and 22.7 ± 2.1 %, respectively, of the total mass in the BL. Through the vertical profiles of aerosol properties, we observed NPF events in the upper BL during 7 out of 38 research flights, where the newly formed particles continue to grow as they are mixed down to the surface. There is also an indication that deep convection brings aerosols from the free troposphere (FT) to the surface, where they grow to contribute to the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Overall, the vertical heterogeneity of aerosols over the SGP is influenced by aerosol dynamics (new particle formation, growth, and cloud processing) and transport processes (mixing in the BL, long-range transport, entrainment, and convective downward transport). Case studies showing the influence of these factors are discussed.