Future photovoltaic potential in India: navigating the interplay between air pollution control and climate change mitigation

Abstract

Abstract India has set ambitious solar energy targets to meet its climate commitments. However, climate change, already evident in the country, poses significant challenges to solar power generation. Therefore, assessing the impact of climate change on future photovoltaic potential in India is essential. This study evaluates the mid-century (2041-2050) solar photovoltaic potential across Indian power grids using CMIP6 models under two scenarios: SSP2-4.5 (moderate climate action with intermediate air pollution) and SSP5-8.5 (weak climate action with strong air pollution control). The results indicate that the nationally averaged photovoltaic potential is projected to decrease by -2.3±0.6% (SSP5-8.5) to -3.3±0.9% (SSP2-4.5) compared to the 1985-2014 baseline, primarily due to reduced radiation and increased temperatures. Additionally, cell temperatures are expected to rise by 1.5±0.13°C (SSP2-4.5) to 2±0.11°C (SSP5-8.5), leading to efficiency losses and additional 18±5 days under SSP2-4.5 (26±3 days under SSP5-8.5) of efficiency de-rating, particularly in solar-rich regions. This translates to a loss of 600±160 GWh under SSP2-4.5 and 840±100 GWh under SSP5-8.5, based on the solar generation status of 2023-24. Overall, SSP5-8.5 projects a smaller reduction in photovoltaic potential, it also predicts greater temperature-induced efficiency losses compared to SSP2-4.5, due to aerosol direct effect and weak climate action. Finally, this assessment highlights the need for combined climate and pollution mitigation efforts to boost India’s photovoltaic potential and secure a sustainable, resilient energy future.