Adverse COVID-19 Outcomes Research Articles

Obesity and Mortality Among Patients Diagnosed With COVID-19

LettersJune 2021Obesity and Mortality Among Patients Diagnosed With COVID-19FREEAnastasios Kollias, MD, PhD, Konstantinos G. Kyriakoulis, MD, Konstantinos Syrigos, MD, PhDAnastasios Kollias, MD, PhDNational and Kapodistrian University of Athens and Sotiria Hospital, Athens, GreeceSearch for more papers by this author, Konstantinos G. Kyriakoulis, MDNational and Kapodistrian University of Athens and Sotiria Hospital, Athens, GreeceSearch for more papers by this author, Konstantinos Syrigos, MD, PhDNational and Kapodistrian University of Athens and Sotiria Hospital, Athens, GreeceSearch for more papers by this authorAuthor, Article, and Disclosure Informationhttps://doi.org/10.7326/L21-0063 SectionsAboutVisual AbstractPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissions ShareFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail TO THE EDITOR: We read with interest Tartof and colleagues' study (1) showing that body mass index (BMI) independently predicted mortality in 6916 patients with COVID-19. High BMI was also shown to be more strongly associated with COVID-19 mortality in younger adults and men.Emerging evidence suggests that SARS-CoV-2 may induce an excessive immune response leading to cytokine storm and coagulation disorders (2). Thus, severe COVID-19 is associated with an increased risk for venous thromboembolic events (VTEs) (2). The latter risk seems to be determined by 3 factors: patient characteristics, including well-established risk factors for VTE; quarantine-associated inactivity, hospitalization conditions, and antithrombotic interventions; and SARS-CoV-2–specific factors (2). In terms of patient characteristics, BMI represents a well-established risk factor for VTE. A recent systematic review and dose–response meta-analysis of cohort studies among 4 million participants showed a significant linear relationship between BMI and risk for VTE (3). The increased risk for VTE among patients with COVID-19 and the preliminary evidence suggesting a survival benefit with the use of antithrombotic treatment have been recognized by international societies that strongly recommend the use of thromboprophylaxis in all hospitalized patients (4).It would be interesting if studies reporting on mortality in patients with COVID-19 made available BMI-related data on VTE incidence and the thromboprophylaxis protocols used. Obesity is known to be associated with an increased risk for a proinflammatory and prothrombotic state, which can also be aggravated by SARS-CoV-2 (1). It could be argued that obese patients have a higher risk for VTE that in turn could partly account for their higher incidence of adverse outcomes in COVID-19. Furthermore, recent autopsy studies have recognized a high incidence of deep venous thrombosis in patients with COVID-19, with pulmonary embolism being identified as a direct cause of death (5). Physicians dealing with patients with COVID-19 should be aware of the high risk for VTE and the need for thromboprophylaxis, especially when obesity is present.

United Kingdom Research study into Ethnicity And COVID-19 outcomes in Healthcare workers (UK-REACH): a retrospective cohort study using linked routinely collected data, study protocol

IntroductionCOVID-19 has spread rapidly worldwide, causing significant morbidity and mortality. People from ethnic minorities, particularly those working in healthcare settings, have been disproportionately affected. Current evidence of the association between...

P298 Budesonide MMX versus Prednisolone for Ulcerative Colitis: Comparative outcomes from a British retrospective multi-centre study

BackgroundBudesonide MMX (Cortiment) is superior to placebo for mild to moderate UC flares and has a favourable side effect profile. However, no head-to-head data with Prednisolone exist. During the COVID-19 pandemic many IBD units chose Cortiment as first line treatment for outpatients’ flares of UC. The aim of this retrospective study was to compare outcomes of Cortiment vs Prednisolone treatment for UC.MethodsHospital based prescriptions from of 3 UK IBD units were extracted from computerized pharmacy records for the time periods between 1/3/2019 – 30/6/2019 and 1/3/2020 – 30/6/2020. All adult outpatients treated with oral steroids for a flare of UC were included.Baseline data included age, sex, phenotype, IBD medications, symptoms and changes to medication at time of steroid prescription. Follow up data included need for hospital admission for acute severe ulcerative colitis, symptoms at 4 weeks and end of treatment, need for rescue Prednisolone (Cortiment group only). Primary outcome was symptomatic improvement at 4 weeks. ResultsThe 2019 (94 patients) and 2020 (127 patients) cohorts did not differ significantly with regards to age, sex, phenotype and baseline characteristics. The proportion of Cortiment prescriptions rose significantly from 24.5% in 2019 to 70.1% in 2020 (p<0.001). At week 4 of treatment there were statistically significant differences in mean bowel frequency (3.49 in 2019 vs 5.85 in 2020, p=0.001), rectal bleeding <50% (89.7% of patients in 2019 vs 73.1% in 2020, p=0.039) and physician global assessment (39.2% of patients in remission in 2019 compared to 19.8% in 2020, p=0.045).There was no significant difference in hospital admissions, rectal bleeding and physician global assessment at end of treatment.Patients prescribed Cortiment in 2019 had similar baseline characteristics to those prescribed Cortiment in 2020. Mean bowel frequency at four weeks was significantly higher in 2020 (6.18) compared to 2019 (3.69, p=0.034), but rectal bleeding (p=0.388) and physician global assessment at week four did not differ between 2019 and 2020 (p=0.422). Rescue Prednisolone was required in 10% of Cortiment patients in 2019 vs 31.3% in 2020 (p=0.058).ConclusionCortiment was used as the main first line steroid for UC during the pandemic to reduce the risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes. This change in treatment was, however, associated with worse UC outcomes at 4 weeks and 31% needed rescue Prednisolone. As active IBD is associated with worse COVID-19 outcomes clinicians should carefully evaluate the choice of steroid to achieve optimal disease control and COVID-19 risk minimization.

Complement control for COVID-19.

Excessive complement activation contributes to lung disease and adverse patient outcomes in COVID-19 (see the related Research Articles by Yan et al and Ma et al).

Abstract P046: Prevalence Of Covid-19 Related Concerns And The Association With Participant Characteristics Among Adults With Heart Disease Engaged In Telebehavioral Therapy During The Pandemic

Introduction: Individuals with cardiac conditions may be at increased risk for behavioral health issues, as well as for adverse COVID-19 outcomes. The purpose of this study was to examine the prevalence and types of COVID-19 related concerns, and associated characteristics, among U.S. adults with heart disease engaged in a telebehavioral therapy program during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The analytic sample comprised de-identified data from a consecutive cohort of 480 adults with heart disease (62% female, 27% non-white race/ethnicity, mean age 70.9 ± 12.6 years) that completed an initial consultation for an evidence-based telebehavioral therapy program between March 23 - April 11, 2020. Baseline characteristics including age, sex, race/ethnicity, U.S. region, marital status, living alone, employment status, self-rated health (from the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey), and psychological symptom severity (Depression Anxiety Stress Scales 21) were obtained through standardized assessment conducted by a licensed therapist. COVID-19 related concerns were abstracted from clinical notes and characterized using qualitative research methods. Associations between participant characteristics and the presence of a COVID-19 concern were evaluated using chi-square statistics and logistic regression. Results: Forty percent of participants (191/480) reported at least one COVID-19 related concern at their initial consultation. The three most prevalent concerns were anxious feelings associated with the pandemic (14.2%), isolation (11.9%), and health-related concerns (e.g., contracting COVID-19; 11.9%). Depression (39.9%), anxiety (40.1%), and stress (26.3%) symptoms were prevalent among participants. There were no significant associations between having a COVID-19 concern and age &gt;=65 years, U.S. region, unmarried/unpartnered status, living alone, unemployed status, poor/fair self-rated health (p&gt;.05). Female vs. male sex (45% vs. 32%; p=.006) and white vs. non-white race/ethnicity (43% vs. 30%; p=.006) were each associated with higher odds of having a COVID-19 related concern; after multivariate adjustment these associations remained significant (OR female sex = 1.8, 95%CI 1.2-2.7; OR white race/ethnicity = 1.9, 95%CI = 1.2-3.0). Conclusion: COVID-19 related concerns were common among adults with heart disease engaged in telebehavioral health care during the COVID-19 pandemic, and more common among female and white participants.

International register “Dynamics analysis of comorbidities in SARS-CoV-2 survivors” (AKTIV SARS-CoV-2): analysis of predictors of short-term adverse outcomes in COVID-19

The international AKTIV register presents a detailed description of out- and inpatients with COVID-19 in the Eurasian region. It was found that hospitalized patients had more comorbidities. In addition, these patients were older and there were more men than among outpatients. Among the traditional risk factors, obesity and hypertension had a significant negative effect on prognosis, which was more significant for patients 60 years of age and older. Among comorbidities, CVDs had the maximum negative effect on prognosis, and this effect was more significant for patients 60 years of age and older. Among other comorbidities, type 2 and 1 diabetes, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cancer and anemia had a negative impact on the prognosis. This effect was also more significant (with the exception of type 1 diabetes) for patients 60 years and older. The death risk in patients with COVID-19 depended on the severity and type of multimorbidity. Clusters of diseases typical for deceased patients were identified and their impact on prognosis was determined. The most unfavorable was a cluster of 4 diseases, including hypertension, coronary artery disease, heart failure, and diabetes mellitus. The data obtained should be taken into account when planning measures for prevention (vaccination priority groups), treatment and rehabilitation of COVID-19 survivors.

POS1169 IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY AMONG SWEDISH PATIENTS WITH INFLAMMATORY JOINT DISEASES VERSUS THE GENERAL POPULATION

Background:Studies from COVID-19 case-repositories among patients with rheumatic diseases have assessed associations (relative risks) between characteristics of the disease and adverse COVID-19 outcomes. Such designs are susceptible to bias from selection of cases reported. Few studies have assessed absolute and relative risks for COVID-19 outcomes in population-based cohorts of patients with inflammatory joint diseases, nor compared these risks to those in the general population.Objectives:To estimate all-cause mortality, absolute and relative risks for severe COVID-19 in patients with chronic inflammatory joint diseases, compared over time and to the general population.Methods:We updated a multi-register nationwide linkage (“ARTIS”) on adults with RA, PsA, AS, SpA or JIA and population referents (matched on sex, age, and region), with data on hospitalizations, admission to intensive care (ICU), and deaths due to COVID-19. We calculated all-cause mortality March-September 2015-2020, and absolute and relative risks for COVID-19 outcomes March-September 2020. Patients were compared to population referents using hazard ratios (HR) from Cox models adjusted for comorbidities and socio-economy.Results:We identified 110567 individuals with inflammatory joint disease (53455 with RA) in Sweden on March 1st 2020, and 484277 matched general population subjects. In all cohorts, the absolute risk of death from any cause in 2020 was higher than 2015-2019 (Figure 1), with a peak in mid-April, but the relative risks of death (vs. the general population) 2020 remained similar to HRs for 2015-2019 (HR for 2020 in Table 1).Among all individuals with inflammatory joint disease in 2020, the risk for hospitalization, admission to ICU, and death due to COVID-19 was 0.5%, 0.04% and 0.1%, respectively (Table 1). HRs (vs. the general population) were elevated for almost all outcomes. HRs for COVID-19 related outcomes (Table 1) were higher than for non-COVID-19 outcomes; adjustment for co-morbidities and socio-economy explained much of these increases, somewhat less so for the former.Figure 1.All-cause mortality in Swedish individuals with inflammatory joint disease and general population, March-September 2020 and the average 2015-2019Table 1.Absolute and relative risks for COVID-19 outcomes in Swedish individuals with inflammatory joint disease compared to general population comparators March-September 2020OutcomeEvents(risk, %)Events (risk, %), general populationHR1*HR2**AllHospitalization, all causes8971 (8.1%)24273 (5.0%)1.65(1.61, 1.69)1.18 (1.15, 1.21)Hospitalization, COVID-19581 (0.5%)1443 (0.3%)1.77 (1.61, 1.95)1.32 (1.19, 1.46)ICU, COVID-1945 (0.04%)162 (0.03%)1.22 (0.88, 1.70)1.17 (0.82, 1.66)Death, all causes1310 (1.2%)3036 (0.6%)1.90 (1.78, 2.02)1.13 (1.05, 1.21)Death, COVID-19161 (0.1%)338 (0.07%)2.09 (1.73, 2.52)1.18 (0.97, 1.44)RAHospitalization, all causes5275 (9.9%)13072 (5.9%)1.71 (1.66, 1.77)1.21 (1.17, 1.25)Hospitalization, COVID-19379 (0.7%)784 (0.4%)2.02 (1.78, 2.28)1.40 (1.23, 1.60)ICU, COVID-1931 (0.06%)79 (0.04%)1.63 (1.08, 2.48)1.53 (0.98, 2.40)Death, all causes968 (1.8%)2026 (0.9%)1.99 (1.85, 2.15)1.18 (1.09, 1.28)Death, COVID-19134 (0.3%)245 (0.11%)2.28 (1.85, 2.81)1.27 (1.02, 1.59)PsA AS SpA JIAHospitalization, all causes3696 (6.5%)11201 (4.3%)1.54 (1.48, 1.59)1.16 (1.11, 1.20)Hospitalization, COVID-19202 (0.4%)659 (0.3%)1.41 (1.20, 1.65)1.20 (1.02, 1.41)ICU, COVID-1914 (0.02%)83 (0.03%)0.78 (0.44, 1.37)0.76 (0.43, 1.37)Death, all causes342 (0.6%)1010 (0.4%)1.56 (1.38, 1.76)0.98 (0.86, 1.12)Death, COVID-1927 (0.05%)93 (0.04%)1.34 (0.87, 2.05)0.83 (0.54, 1.28)*HR1 unadjusted, matched (age, sex, and region)**HR2, as HR1 but adjusted for comorbidities and socio-economyConclusion:Risks of severe COVID-19 were increased among patients with inflammatory joint diseases, but similar increases were seen for non-COVID-19 morbidity. Co-morbidities and socio-economy explain much of this increase.Disclosure of Interests:Hannah Bower: None declared, Thomas Frisell: None declared, Daniela Di Giuseppe: None declared, Bénédicte Delcoigne: None declared, Gerd-Marie Alenius: None declared, Eva Baecklund: None declared, Katerina Chatzidionysiou Speakers bureau: Eli Lilly, AbbVie and Pfizer, Consultant of: Eli Lilly, AbbVie and Pfizer, Nils Feltelius Employee of: Nils Feltelius is employed by the Medical Products Agency (MPA), which is a governmental body. The views in this abstract may not represent the views of the MPA, Helena Forsblad-d’Elia: None declared, Alf Kastbom Employee of: Former employee of Sanofi, Lars Klareskog: None declared, Elisabet Lindqvist: None declared, Ulf Lindström: None declared, Carl Turesson Speakers bureau: Roche, AbbVie and Pfizer, Consultant of: Roche, Grant/research support from: Research grant from Bristol-Myers Squibb, Christopher Sjowall: None declared, Johan Askling Grant/research support from: PI for agreements between Karolinska Institutet and Abbvie, BMS, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Roche, Samsung Bioepis, and Sanofi for safety monitoring of anti-rheumatic therapies (ARTIS).

Coronary artery calcification and epicardial adipose tissue as independent predictors of mortality in COVID-19.

Recent epidemiological studies have demonstrated that common cardiovascular risk factors are strongly associated with adverse outcomes in COVID-19. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) and epicardial fat (EAT) have shown to outperform traditional risk factors in predicting cardiovascular events in the general population. We aim to determine if CAC and EAT determined by Computed Tomographic (CT) scanning can predict all-cause mortality in patients admitted with COVID-19 disease. We performed a retrospective, post-hoc analysis of all patients admitted to Montefiore Medical Center with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis from March 1st, 2020 to May 2nd, 2020 who had a non-contrast CT of the chest within 5 years prior to admission. We determined ordinal CAC scores and quantified the epicardial (EAT) and thoracic (TAT) fat volume and examined their relationship with inpatient mortality. A total of 493 patients were analyzed. There were 197 deaths (39.95%). Patients who died during the index admission had higher age (72, [64–80] vs 68, [57–76]; p < 0.001), CAC score (3, [0–6] vs 1, [0–4]; p < 0.001) and EAT (107, [70–152] vs 94, [64–129]; p = 0.023). On a competing risk analysis regression model, CAC ≥ 4 and EAT ≥ median (98 ml) were independent predictors of mortality with increased mortality of 63% (p = 0.003) and 43% (p = 0.032), respectively. As a composite, the group with a combination of CAC ≥ 4 and EAT ≥ 98 ml had the highest mortality. CAC and EAT measured from chest CT are strong independent predictors of inpatient mortality from COVID-19 in this high-risk cohort.

Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus in the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic: Oxidative Stress as a Major Pathophysiological Mechanism Linked to Adverse Clinical Outcomes.

Recent reports have demonstrated the association between type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and increased morbidity and mortality rates during coronavirus disease (COVID-19) infection, setting a priority of these patients for vaccination. Impaired innate and adaptive immunity observed in T1DM seem to play a major role. Severe, life-threatening COVID-19 disease is characterized by the excessive release of pro-inflammatory cytokines, known as a “cytokine storm”. Patients with T1DM present elevated levels of cytokines including interleukin-1a (IL), IL-1β, IL-2, IL-6 and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), suggesting the pre-existence of chronic inflammation, which, in turn, has been considered the major risk factor of adverse COVID-19 outcomes in many cohorts. Even more importantly, oxidative stress is a key player in COVID-19 pathogenesis and determines disease severity. It is well-known that extreme glucose excursions, the prominent feature of T1DM, are a potent mediator of oxidative stress through several pathways including the activation of protein kinase C (PKC) and the increased production of advanced glycation end products (AGEs). Additionally, chronic endothelial dysfunction and the hypercoagulant state observed in T1DM, in combination with the direct damage of endothelial cells by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), may result in endothelial and microcirculation impairment, which contribute to the pathogenesis of acute respiratory syndrome and multi-organ failure. The binding of SARS-CoV-2 to angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptors in pancreatic b-cells permits the direct destruction of b-cells, which contributes to the development of new-onset diabetes and the induction of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) in patients with T1DM. Large clinical studies are required to clarify the exact pathways through which T1DM results in worse COVID-19 outcomes.

A urinary peptidomic profile predicts outcome in SARS-CoV-2-infected patients.

BackgroundCOVID-19 prediction models based on clinical characteristics, routine biochemistry and imaging, have been developed, but little is known on proteomic markers reflecting the molecular pathophysiology of disease progression.MethodsThe multicentre (six European study sites) Prospective Validation of a Proteomic Urine Test for Early and Accurate Prognosis of Critical Course Complications in Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Infection Study (Crit-COV-U) is recruiting consecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. A urinary proteomic biomarker (COV50) developed by capillary-electrophoresis-mass spectrometry (CE-MS) technology, comprising 50 sequenced peptides and identifying the parental proteins, was evaluated in 228 patients (derivation cohort) with replication in 99 patients (validation cohort). Death and progression along the World Health Organization (WHO) Clinical Progression Scale were assessed up to 21 days after the initial PCR test. Statistical methods included logistic regression, receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis and comparison of the area under the curve (AUC).FindingsIn the derivation cohort, 23 patients died, and 48 developed worse WHO scores. The odds ratios (OR) for death per 1 standard deviation (SD) increment in COV50 were 3·52 (95% CI, 2·02–6·13, p <0·0001) unadjusted and 2·73 (1·25–5·95, p = 0·012) adjusted for sex, age, baseline WHO score, body mass index (BMI) and comorbidities. For WHO scale progression, the corresponding OR were 2·63 (1·80–3·85, p<0·0001) and 3·38 (1·85–6·17, p<0·0001), respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) for COV50 as a continuously distributed variable was 0·80 (0·72–0·88) for mortality and 0·74 (0·66–0·81) for worsening WHO score. The optimised COV50 thresholds for mortality and worsening WHO score were 0·47 and 0·04 with sensitivity/specificity of 87·0 (74·6%) and 77·1 (63·9%), respectively. On top of covariates, COV50 improved the AUC, albeit borderline for death, from 0·78 to 0·82 (p = 0·11) and 0·84 (p = 0·052) for mortality and from 0·68 to 0·78 (p = 0·0097) and 0·75 (p = 0·021) for worsening WHO score. The validation cohort findings were confirmatory.InterpretationThis first CRIT-COV-U report proves the concept that urinary proteomic profiling generates biomarkers indicating adverse COVID-19 outcomes, even at an early disease stage, including WHO stages 1–3. These findings need to be consolidated in an upcoming final dataset.FundingThe German Federal Ministry of Health funded the study.

688 Pediatric Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) and COVID-19-Related Adverse Clinical Outcomes

IntroductionThe relationship of OSA and human coronavirus (COVID-19) in the pediatric population is unknown. We postulate that OSA is associated with SARS-CoV-2 positivity and with adverse COVID-19 outcomes in children.MethodsA retrospective review of 120 consecutive patients (<18 years) with prior polysomnogram (PSG) and COVID-19 testing from the Cleveland Clinic COVID-19 registry was conducted. Using a case control design of SARS-CoV-2 positive and negative pediatric patients, we examined COVID-19 and pre-existing OSA (dichotomized AHI≥1) using logistic (OR,95%CI) regression and as continuous measures: AHI, oxygen(SpO2) nadir, %time SpO2<90%) using linear regression(beta+/-SE). In those positive for SARS-CoV-2(cases only), we assessed the association of OSA and World Health Organization(WHO) COVID-19 clinical outcome composite score (hospitalization, requiring supplemental oxygen, non-invasive ventilation/high-flow oxygen, invasive ventilation/ECMO or death) using Wilcoxon rank sum test for ordinal data.ResultsCases (n=36) were 11.8±4.4 years, 61% male, 27.8% black and 88.9% with OSA, while 85.7% of controls (n=84) had OSA. OSA was not associated with increased SARS-CoV-2 positivity: OR=1.33(0.40, 4.45,p=0.64). No significant difference between cases and controls for mean AHI 3.7(1.5,6.0) vs 3.5(1.5,7.1),p=0.91,SpO2 nadir 88.6±5.4 vs 89.1±4.4,p=0.58,%time SpO2<90% 0.05[0.00,1.00) vs 0.10 (0.00,1.00, p=0.65) respectively was noted. WHO-7 COVID-19 clinical outcome did not meet statistical significance in relation to OSA due to the low event frequency (p=0.49). Of note, those with OSA vs without OSA had a higher WHO-7 outcome score of 2 vs 0 and prevalence of hospitalization: 12.5 vs 0% respectively. Of hospitalized patients, the following was observed: 23% had moderate/severe OSA vs 4.3% mild OSA, 50% required supplemental oxygen and 25% required intubation/invasive ventilation. No deaths or readmissions were reported. High risk conditions included: 75% obesity, 50% asthma, 25% sickle cell disease and 25% hypoplastic left heart.ConclusionIn this first report of which we are aware focused on COVID-19 in pediatric OSA, we use a case control design leveraging COVID-19 and sleep laboratory registries. Albeit not statistically significant, pediatric patients with OSA had a higher percentage of worse clinical outcomes. Larger network studies are needed to clarify whether poorer COVID-19 outcomes may be attributable to OSA or modulated via high risk health conditions.Support (if any):

PREDICTIVE VALUE OF TROPONIN, NTPROBNP AND SODIUM ON ADVERSE CLINICAL OUTCOMES IN COVID-19

Background: Cardiac injury has been identified as an independent risk factor of mortality in COVID-19, but early recognition of severe COVID-19 illness remains challenging. Several lab parameters have been proposed to help guide clinical decisions. This study aimed to evaluate the association between troponin (TN), N-terminal pro-brain naturietic peptide (BNP), and sodium and adverse clinical outcomes in COVID-19.Methods: This retrospective single-center cohort included consecutive COVID-19 patients admitted to the George Washington University Hospital between March 2020 and May 2020. Patient demographics, cardiovascular comorbidities, and laboratory values were examined. Elevated TN and BNP were defined as >0.02 ng/mL and >150 ng/L, respectively. Primary outcomes included ICU admission and mortality. The presence of underlying cardiovascular disease (CVD) was analyzed to evaluate for relative effect on clinical outcomes. Chi-square and multinomial regression models were utilized to evaluate the association between biomarkers and clinical outcomes.Results: 290 patients were identified with a median age of 62 and the majority were male (52.4%), Black (71.3%), and had CVD risk factors (72.1%). ICU admission occurred in 88 (30.3%) while death occurred in 74 (25.5%) individuals. Patients with both an elevated TN and CVD were more likely to experience ICU admission or death (OR=2.55, p=0.017) while patients with both elevated TN and elevated BNP had markedly increased odds of ICU admission or death (OR=7.53, p 145) was associated with over an eight-fold increased odds of ICU admission or death (OR=8.57, p<0.001). An isolated elevated BNP with CVD did not increase the risk of primary events.Conclusion: Among COVID-19 patients with underlying CVD, the presence of an elevated TN or hypernatremia was associated with significantly increased odds of ICU admission or death. Elevated BNP with CVD did not increase risk of events. Identifying these factors on presentation may prove helpful for early triage of high-risk patients.

Predictors of adverse COVID-19 outcomes in patients with oncohematological diseases

Material and methods. We performed a prospective cohort study including 66 patients with oncohematological pathology and confirmed COVID-19 infection who underwent treatment at the SI “Minsk Scientific and Practical Center for Surgery, Transplantology and Hematology” from March to September 2020.Results. The overwhelming majority of patients with hematological pathology and COVID-19 infection were diagnosed with multiple myeloma (MM) — 25 (37.8 %). The highest mortality rate was recorded in patients with multiple myeloma and acute leukemia (21 % and 12 %, respectively). Stage 4–5 chronic kidney disease (p&lt;0.05, Fisher’s exact test; 0.01) is a statistically significant factor of adverse outcomes in patients with oncohematological diseases. The presence of coronary artery disease, diabetes mellitus or other pathology did not affect the outcome. We found no effect of previous polychemotherapy performed within the time of less than a month (HR 1.15; 95 % CI 0.66–2.0) and less than 3 months (HR 0.94 %; 95% CI 0.53–1.65) on the risk of the fatal outcome of the infection in patients with neoplastic diseases of hematopoietic tissue. Age over 60 (HR 1.8; 95 % CI 1.01-3.28) and the stage of progression according to the underlying disease (HR 2.8; 95 % CI 1.9–4.0) were statistically significant factors of the fatal outcome in patients with oncohematological diseases.Conclusion. The presented study has determined the predictors of the fatal outcome in COVID-19 patients with oncohematological diseases: age over 60 and the stage of progression of the underlying disease. At the same time, the highest mortality rate in COVID-19 was recorded in patients with multiple myeloma and acute leukemia (21 % and 12 %, respectively). Among all the analyzed comorbidity factors, stage 4–5 chronic kidney disease had a statistical significance for adverse outcomes.

Ethnic differences in SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related hospitalisation, intensive care unit admission, and death in 17 million adults in England: an observational cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform

SummaryBackgroundCOVID-19 has disproportionately affected minority ethnic populations in the UK. Our aim was to quantify ethnic differences in SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 outcomes during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in England.MethodsWe conducted an observational cohort study of adults (aged ≥18 years) registered with primary care practices in England for whom electronic health records were available through the OpenSAFELY platform, and who had at least 1 year of continuous registration at the start of each study period (Feb 1 to Aug 3, 2020 [wave 1], and Sept 1 to Dec 31, 2020 [wave 2]). Individual-level primary care data were linked to data from other sources on the outcomes of interest: SARS-CoV-2 testing and positive test results and COVID-19-related hospital admissions, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and death. The exposure was self-reported ethnicity as captured on the primary care record, grouped into five high-level census categories (White, South Asian, Black, other, and mixed) and 16 subcategories across these five categories, as well as an unknown ethnicity category. We used multivariable Cox regression to examine ethnic differences in the outcomes of interest. Models were adjusted for age, sex, deprivation, clinical factors and comorbidities, and household size, with stratification by geographical region.FindingsOf 17 288 532 adults included in the study (excluding care home residents), 10 877 978 (62·9%) were White, 1 025 319 (5·9%) were South Asian, 340 912 (2·0%) were Black, 170 484 (1·0%) were of mixed ethnicity, 320 788 (1·9%) were of other ethnicity, and 4 553 051 (26·3%) were of unknown ethnicity. In wave 1, the likelihood of being tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection was slightly higher in the South Asian group (adjusted hazard ratio 1·08 [95% CI 1·07–1·09]), Black group (1·08 [1·06–1·09]), and mixed ethnicity group (1·04 [1·02–1·05]) and was decreased in the other ethnicity group (0·77 [0·76–0·78]) relative to the White group. The risk of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection was higher in the South Asian group (1·99 [1·94–2·04]), Black group (1·69 [1·62–1·77]), mixed ethnicity group (1·49 [1·39–1·59]), and other ethnicity group (1·20 [1·14–1·28]). Compared with the White group, the four remaining high-level ethnic groups had an increased risk of COVID-19-related hospitalisation (South Asian group 1·48 [1·41–1·55], Black group 1·78 [1·67–1·90], mixed ethnicity group 1·63 [1·45–1·83], other ethnicity group 1·54 [1·41–1·69]), COVID-19-related ICU admission (2·18 [1·92–2·48], 3·12 [2·65–3·67], 2·96 [2·26–3·87], 3·18 [2·58–3·93]), and death (1·26 [1·15–1·37], 1·51 [1·31–1·71], 1·41 [1·11–1·81], 1·22 [1·00–1·48]). In wave 2, the risks of hospitalisation, ICU admission, and death relative to the White group were increased in the South Asian group but attenuated for the Black group compared with these risks in wave 1. Disaggregation into 16 ethnicity groups showed important heterogeneity within the five broader categories.InterpretationSome minority ethnic populations in England have excess risks of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 and of adverse COVID-19 outcomes compared with the White population, even after accounting for differences in sociodemographic, clinical, and household characteristics. Causes are likely to be multifactorial, and delineating the exact mechanisms is crucial. Tackling ethnic inequalities will require action across many fronts, including reducing structural inequalities, addressing barriers to equitable care, and improving uptake of testing and vaccination.FundingMedical Research Council.

Understanding the Co-Epidemic of Obesity and COVID-19: Current Evidence, Comparison with Previous Epidemics, Mechanisms, and Preventive and Therapeutic Perspectives.

Purpose of ReviewA growing body of evidence suggests that obesity and increased visceral adiposity are strongly and independently linked to adverse outcomes and death due to COVID-19. This review summarizes current epidemiologic data, highlights pathogenetic mechanisms on the association between excess body weight and COVID-19, compares data from previous pandemics, discusses why COVID-19 challenges the “obesity paradox,” and presents implications in prevention and treatment as well as future perspectives.Recent FindingsData from meta-analyses based on recent observational studies have indicated that obesity increases the risks of infection from SARS-CoV-2, severe infection and hospitalization, admission to the ICU and need of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), and the risk of mortality, particularly in severe obesity. The risks of IMV and mortality associated with obesity are accentuated in younger individuals (age ≤ 50 years old). The meta-inflammation in obesity intersects with and exacerbates underlying pathogenetic mechanisms in COVID-19 through the following mechanisms and factors: (i) impaired innate and adaptive immune responses; (ii) chronic inflammation and oxidative stress; (iii) endothelial dysfunction, hypercoagulability, and aberrant activation of the complement; (iv) overactivation of the renin–angiotensin–aldosterone system; (v) overexpression of the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor in the adipose tissue; (vi) associated cardiometabolic comorbidities; (vii) vitamin D deficiency; (viii) gut dysbiosis; and (ix) mechanical and psychological issues.SummaryMechanistic and large epidemiologic studies using big data sources with omics data exploring genetic determinants of risk and disease severity as well as large randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are necessary to shed light on the pathways connecting chronic subclinical inflammation/meta-inflammation with adverse COVID-19 outcomes and establish the ideal preventive and therapeutic approaches for patients with obesity.

Are older people with disabilities neglected in the COVID-19 pandemic?

Are older people with disabilities neglected in the COVID-19 pandemic?

Pregnant women with COVID-19: the placental involvement and consequences.

SARS-CoV-2, the leading cause of COVID-19 pandemic, was detected for the first time in Wuhan. In this study, we investigated the potential undesirable maternal and feto-neonatal consequences of COVID-19, and the related pathophysiological alterations in mother, neonate, and especially in the placenta as a vital organ, were reviewed. Also, the possibility of vertical transmission of virus and placental abnormalities were evaluated. The pregnant women were a vulnerable population for COVID-19, and several obstetric consequences were reported following SARS-CoV-2 infection. The higher risk of abruption, preterm labor, maternal death, stillbirth, intrauterine growth restriction, and newborns with fetal distress were adverse pregnancy and perinatal outcomes of COVID-19. Despite the ACE2 expression on placental components was confirmed, there is no agreement on the mother–child vertical transmission of this virus. Therefore, feto-neonatal consequences might be associated with placental abnormalities. The placental abnormalities are characterized by feto-maternal vascular malperfusion. Additionally, these adverse consequences lead to early termination of pregnancy in some cases, mostly via cesarean section. The pregnant women screening, coordination between healthcare personnel and neonatal unit, and infected women quarantine may decrease the risk of maternal and neonatal death after delivery.

Machine learning based on clinical characteristics and chest CT quantitative measurements for prediction of adverse clinical outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19

ObjectivesTo develop and validate a machine learning model for the prediction of adverse outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.MethodsWe included 424 patients with non-severe COVID-19 on admission from January 17, 2020, to February 17, 2020, in the primary cohort of this retrospective multicenter study. The extent of lung involvement was quantified on chest CT images by a deep learning–based framework. The composite endpoint was the occurrence of severe or critical COVID-19 or death during hospitalization. The optimal machine learning classifier and feature subset were selected for model construction. The performance was further tested in an external validation cohort consisting of 98 patients.ResultsThere was no significant difference in the prevalence of adverse outcomes (8.7% vs. 8.2%, p = 0.858) between the primary and validation cohorts. The machine learning method extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and optimal feature subset including lactic dehydrogenase (LDH), presence of comorbidity, CT lesion ratio (lesion%), and hypersensitive cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) were selected for model construction. The XGBoost classifier based on the optimal feature subset performed well for the prediction of developing adverse outcomes in the primary and validation cohorts, with AUCs of 0.959 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.936–0.976) and 0.953 (95% CI: 0.891–0.986), respectively. Furthermore, the XGBoost classifier also showed clinical usefulness.ConclusionsWe presented a machine learning model that could be effectively used as a predictor of adverse outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19, opening up the possibility for patient stratification and treatment allocation.Key Points• Developing an individually prognostic model for COVID-19 has the potential to allow efficient allocation of medical resources.• We proposed a deep learning–based framework for accurate lung involvement quantification on chest CT images.• Machine learning based on clinical and CT variables can facilitate the prediction of adverse outcomes of COVID-19.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00330-021-07957-z.

Ambient fine particulate matter air pollution and the risk of hospitalization among COVID-19 positive individuals: Cohort study

BackgroundEcologic analyses suggest that living in areas with higher levels of ambient fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) is associated with higher risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes. Studies accounting for individual-level health characteristics are lacking. MethodsWe leveraged the breadth and depth of the US Department of Veterans Affairs national healthcare databases and built a national cohort of 169,102 COVID-19 positive United States Veterans, enrolled between March 2, 2020 and January 31, 2021, and followed them through February 15, 2021. Annual average 2018 PM2.5 exposure, at an approximately 1 km2 resolution, was linked with residential street address at the year prior to COVID-19 positive test. COVID-19 hospitalization was defined as first hospital admission between 7 days prior to, and 15 days after, the first COVID-19 positive date. Adjusted Poisson regression assessed the association of PM2.5 with risk of hospitalization. ResultsThere were 25,422 (15.0%) hospitalizations; 5,448 (11.9%), 5,056 (13.0%), 7,159 (16.1%), and 7,759 (19.4%) were in the lowest to highest PM2.5 quartile, respectively. In models adjusted for State, demographic and behavioral factors, contextual characteristics, and characteristics of the pandemic a one interquartile range increase in PM2.5 (1.9 µg/m3) was associated with a 10% (95% CI: 8%–12%) increase in risk of hospitalization. The association of PM2.5 and risk of hospitalization among COVID-19 individuals was present in each wave of the pandemic. Models of non-linear exposure–response suggested increased risk at PM2.5 concentrations below the national standard 12 µg/m3. Formal effect modification analyses suggested higher risk of hospitalization associated with PM2.5 in Black people compared to White people (p = 0.045), and in those living in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods (p < 0.001). ConclusionsExposure to higher levels of PM2.5 was associated with increased risk of hospitalization among COVID-19 infected individuals. The risk was evident at PM2.5 levels below the regulatory standards. The analysis identified those of Black race and those living in disadvantaged neighborhoods as population groups that may be more susceptible to the untoward effect of PM2.5 on risk of hospitalization in the setting of COVID-19.

COVID-IRS: A novel predictive score for risk of invasive mechanical ventilation in patients with COVID-19.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a systemic disease that can rapidly progress into acute respiratory failure and death. Timely identification of these patients is crucial for a proper administration of health-care resources. To develop a predictive score that estimates the risk of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) among patients with COVID-19. Retrospective cohort study of 401 COVID-19 patients diagnosed from March 12, to August 10, 2020. The score development cohort comprised 211 patients (52.62% of total sample) whereas the validation cohort included 190 patients (47.38% of total sample). We divided participants according to the need of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and looked for potential predictive variables. We developed two predictive scores, one based on Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and the other one on the Neutrophil/Lymphocyte ratio (NLR), using the following variables: respiratory rate, SpO2/FiO2 ratio and lactic dehydrogenase (LDH). The area under the curve (AUC) in the development cohort was 0.877 (0.823-0.931) using the NLR based score and 0.891 (0.843-0.939) using the IL-6 based score. When compared with other similar scores developed for the prediction of adverse outcomes in COVID-19, the COVID-IRS scores proved to be superior in the prediction of IMV. The COVID-IRS scores accurately predict the need for mechanical ventilation in COVID-19 patients using readily available variables taken upon admission. More studies testing the applicability of COVID-IRS in other centers and populations, as well as its performance as a triage tool for COVID-19 patients are needed.