Adverse Employment Effects Research Articles

The impact of a minimum wage increase on hours worked: heterogeneous effects by gender and sector

AbstractA minimum wage increase could lead to adverse employment effects for certain subgroups of minimum wage workers, while leaving others unaffected. This heterogeneity could be overlooked in studies that examine the overall population of minimum wage workers. In this paper, we test for heterogeneous effects of a minimum wage increase on the hours worked of minimum wage employees in Ireland. For all minimum wage workers, we find that a 10% increase in the minimum wage leads to a one‐hour reduction in weekly hours worked, equating to an hours elasticity of approximately −0.3. However, for industry workers and those in the accommodation & food sector, the impact is larger, with elasticity −0.8. We also find a negative impact on the hours worked among men on minimum wage, with no significant effect for women. This is due to the disproportionate number of men working in sectors that show the greatest impact on hours. In line with suggestions from the recent literature, we attempt to identify directly those in receipt of minimum wage using hourly wage data, while also studying the dynamic impact on hours worked over multiple time periods using a fully flexible difference‐in‐differences estimator.

The role of imperfect market structure in the employment effect of emissions trading scheme in China: A theoretical extension and empirical investigation

The Chinese government aims to balance employment stabilization and emissions reduction when it initiates an emissions trading scheme (ETS) to control carbon emissions. However, the policymakers should not neglect the role of imperfectly competitive market structure and market power from incumbent firms. In view of this, classical framework of Berman and Bui's (2001) is extended in this paper to clarify the theoretical mechanism of employment effect of the ETS considering firm-level market power. In addition, based on the firm-level panel data from 2008 to 2019 of China, the employment effect of each pilot ETS is measured with the method of difference-in-difference-in-differences. Then a moderating effect model is established to verify the role of firm-level market power on the heterogeneous employment effect among the pilot ETSs. Moreover, the employment effect is further decomposed to evaluate the influential mechanism from the perspective of firms’ strategic behavior. It is found that there is negative employment effect of China's ETS policy, due to the significant moderating role of firm-level market power. This decrease in labor demand is mainly dominated by a negative output effect rather than a positive substitution effect because strategic allowance sellers with stronger market power tend to hire fewer employees to reduce carbon emissions by controlling production scale. However, the heterogeneity of policy effects resulted by market structure is also identified in different pilot regions. Employment dividend has been found in Beijing and Tianjin where strategic allowance buyers manipulate the carbon market and hire more employees to consolidate their market power. Therefore, policymakers should improve the design of the ETS to overcome the adverse employment effect duo to the region-specific market structure.

Heterogeneity in the effects of uncertainty shocks on labor market dynamics and extensive vs. intensive margins of adjustment

The real option value theory posits that non-convex adjustment costs pertaining to a firm's input are central to comprehending the consequences of increased uncertainty. This paper leverages the diversity observed at both sectoral and country levels in the degree of irreversibility associated with hiring and firing, a critical factor generating what is commonly referred to as “wait-and-see” behavior in times of heightened uncertainty. Our empirical findings reveal two key insights. First, in alignment with the concept of second-moment shocks, uncertainty shocks predominantly influence the labor market through the extensive margin rather than the intensive margin. Second, the effects of uncertainty shocks exhibit pronounced heterogeneity across countries and industries, and the adverse employment effects (extensive margin) are amplified in a country with strict employment protection or in an industry characterized by a higher natural layoff rate, consistent with the real option theory.

The impact of immigration on the employment dynamics of European regions

This paper provides the first evidence on the regional impact of immigration on native employment in a cross-country framework. By exploiting the richness of the European Labour Force Surveys and past censuses, we show that the rise in the share of immigrants across European regions over the 2010-2019 period had a modest impact on the employment-to-population rate of natives. However, the effects are highly uneven across regions and workers, and over time. First, the short-run estimates show adverse employment effects in response to immigration, while these effects disappear in the longer run. Second, low-educated native workers experience employment losses due to immigration, whereas high-educated ones are more likely to experience employment gains. Third, the presence of institutions that provide employment protection and high coverage of collective wage agreements exert a protective effect on native employment. Finally, economically dynamic regions can better absorb immigrant workers, resulting in little or no effect on the native workforce.JEL codes: F22, J21, J61

Robots and Female Employment in German Manufacturing

We analyze the impact of robot adoption on female employment. Our analysis is based on novel micro data on robot use by German manufacturing establishments linked with social security records. An event study analysis for robot adoption shows increased churning among female workers. Whereas hiring rises significantly at robot adoption, separations increase with a smaller magnitude one year later. Overall, employment effects are modestly positive and strongest for medium-qualified women. We find no adverse employment effects for female workers in any of our broad qualification groups.

From snapshot to movie: decomposing the minimum wage effects on employment into hirings and separations

PurposeWhile the effect of the minimum wage (MW) on employment has been widely studied, less is known about its impact on hirings and separations. Whereas the adverse effects of MW on hiring are quite familiar, results of studies indicating reductions in separations are less expected. This study aims to bridge the gap between theory and practice by performing a meta-analysis, which allows for understanding the real effect of MW on employment's two components: hirings and separations.Design/methodology/approachSince mixed results cloud understanding of the issue, a meta-regression analysis was conducted. This technique permits understanding the effect of MW on labor market transitions and offers additional explanations for controversial results.FindingsDespite the evidence that MW increasing the turnover and reducing permanence could negatively affect employment, findings from meta-regression analysis pointed out that increases in MW reduce hirings but also separations offsetting the negative effect on employment. Overall, the results imply that the standard finding that MW changes have little or no impact on employment rates reflects offsetting reductions in hiring and separations. Evidence of negative publication bias is also found.Research limitations/implicationsThe results emphasize the importance of looking beyond employment rates to understand the impacts of MW. Overall, the evidence implies that the standard finding that MW changes have little or no impact on employment rates reflects offsetting reductions in hiring and layoffs. In addition, the results suggest that MW tends to have a much larger impact on employment flows than on employment levels. This finding has to be considered by policymakers when they make decisions about increasing the MW. These analyses assist in clarifying debates about the effects of MW on the labor market in the changing economic environment and conduct a labor policy in the right direction.Practical implicationsThe meta-regression analysis (MRA) conducted in this study emphasizes the importance of looking beyond employment rates to understand the impacts of MW (Brochu and Green, 2013). Overall, the evidence implies that the standard finding that MW changes have little or no impact on employment rates reflects offsetting reductions in hiring and layoffs. Therefore, the evidence from the performed MRA is consistent with those previous meta-analysis studies that found little or no evidence about MW adversely affecting employment and, at the same time, provide additional explanation for these findings. In addition, the results suggest that MW tends to have a much larger impact on employment flows than on employment levels (Dube et al., 2016).Social implicationsEven though hirings are reduced due to MW, this evidence could not necessarily imply a negative effect of MW on the labor market since job searching or matching is improved. Additionally, the increases in MW could improve the quality of the job and the job attachment, which are consistent with a recruitment-retention model (Dube et al., 2007). The evidence from this MRA, which is consistent with little or no impact of MW on employment, also could imply that although the MW is set relatively high to balance the supply and demand of labor, their level is close to optimal. Setting the right level is also associated with compliance with MW. This issue deserves attention since any adverse employment effects of MW could be strengthened by incomplete coverage. The effectiveness of the entire process of developing, putting into practice and enforcing MW rules hinges on compliance.Originality/valueAs prior meta-regression analysis did not have the same objective, the results of this article move current research forward. Based on the analysis, future research lines are delineated, and some public policy implications are assessed.

Large-scale agricultural investment and female employment in African communities: Quantitative and qualitative insights from Nigeria

This study examines how large-scale agricultural investments (LSAIs) affect employment outcomes of female-headed households in Nigeria. It focuses on wage income and labour allocations of households in communities where LSAIs occurred in comparison with households in communities where LSAIs did not occur. It engages a mixed method approach, which involves the quantitative and qualitative. The quantitative data was sourced from the Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA), which was analysed using Propensity Score Matching (PSM). The qualitative analysis entails in-depth interviews (IDIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs). The results show a positive relationship with the household income living in communities with LSAIs, but a negative association with labour allocation to agricultural activities. Also, the findings indicate that households in communities where LSAIs took place received higher wages and spent fewer hours in agriculture. Though, female-headed households spent more time on agricultural activities than the male-headed households, they earn less. The analysis from the qualitative study show, among others things, that female-headed households spent more time on off-farm business despite the fact that they earn less. The study concludes by recommending that the possible adverse employment effects of LSAIs could be reduced by optimising its positive impact, especially with respect to female-headed households in rural communities where most of such investments occur.

Myth or measurement: What does the new minimum wage research say about minimum wages and job loss in the United States?

AbstractThe disagreement among studies on the employment effects of minimum wages in the United States is well known. Less well known, and more puzzling, is the absence of agreement on what the research literature says—that is, how economists summarize the body of evidence on the employment effects of minimum wages. Summaries range from “it is now well established that higher minimum wages do not reduce employment,” to “the evidence is very mixed with effects centered on zero so there is no basis for a strong conclusion one way or the other,” to “most evidence points to adverse employment effects.” We explore the question of what conclusions can be drawn from the literature, focusing on the evidence using subnational minimum wage variation within the United States that has dominated the research landscape since the early 1990s. To accomplish this, we assembled the entire set of published studies in this literature and identified the core estimates that support the conclusions from each study, in most cases relying on responses from the researchers who wrote these papers. Our key conclusions are as follows: (i) there is a clear preponderance of negative estimates in the literature; (ii) this evidence is stronger for teens and young adults and the less educated; (iii) the evidence from studies of directly affected workers points even more strongly to negative employment effects; and (iv) the evidence from studies of low‐wage industries is less one‐sided.

The Impact of Economic Crisis on Health of Greek Population and National Health System

PURPOSE: In this paper, we investigate the impact of the economic crisis on Greece's National Health System and population health. Also included is a critical assessment of the health policies implemented, as compared with other countries, and positive proposals. ΜETHODS: We used data from international, European, and Greek databases to conduct a literature review and to compile statistics. RESULTS: Greece spent less on health in 2012 than it did in 2007, as money from the health sector was used for another spending. During the period 2010-2015, both the Physical Health Index and the Mental Health Index showed a significant decline. Policy planning for health financing has become increasingly important since the crisis. In some countries, targeted policies are being implemented to protect the poor and avoid adverse employment effects. CONCLUSIONS: A time of financial crisis tends to require more, not less, resources for health systems to meet the greater need for health care and increase reliance on publicly funded services. During the financial crisis, fiscal and health policies differed between countries, reflecting policy decisions. In achieving fiscal balance, it is important not to sacrifice financial protection, access, efficiency, quality, health outcomes, or equality.

The clash of ‘E’ and ‘S’ of ESG: just transition on the path to net zero and the implications for sustainable corporate governance and finance

Abstract Climate change is one of the highest-ranking issues on the political and social agenda. Corporations are one of the main actors that will play a major role in the decarbonization of the economy. They need to put forward a net zero strategy and targets, transitioning to net zero by 2050. Yet, an important but rather overlooked stakeholder group in the sustainability debates can pose a significant stumbling block in this transition: employees. Although climate action has huge benefits by ameliorating adverse environmental events and is expected to have an overall positive impact on employment, net-zero transition in companies, especially in the energy sector in certain regions, will cause substantial adverse employment effects for the workforce. This has the potential to slow down or even derail the necessary climate action in companies. In this regard, just transition is a promising concept, which calls for a swift and decisive climate action in corporations while taking account of and mitigating adverse effects for their workforce. If well implemented, it can accelerate net-zero transition in companies. This potential clash of environmental (E) and social (S) aspects of environmental, social and governance agenda, materialized in the companies’ net-zero transition, and its potential remedy, just transition, have important implications for corporate governance and finance, especially for directors’ duties and executive remuneration, sustainability disclosures, institutional investors’ engagement and green finance.

Import Competition and Gender Differences in Labor Reallocation

We study gender differences in the labor market reallocation of Peruvian workers in response to trade liberalization. The empirical strategy relies on variation in import competition across local labor markets based on their industrial composition before China entered the global market in 2001. We find that exposure to Chinese imports led to short-run declines in the employment share of women and men. However, the adverse employment effects are only persistent for women, leading to a reduction in their labor force participation. Lack of job market opportunities in the non-tradable sector act as a significant friction that prevents women from fully offsetting trade-induced displacements.

Is It Merely a Labor Supply Shock? Impacts of Syrian Migrants on Local Economies in Turkey

The authors use the occurrence of a large and geographically varying inflow of more than 2.5 million Syrian migrants to Turkey between 2012 and 2015 to study the effect of migration on local economies. They do not find adverse employment or wage effects for native-born Turkish workers overall or for those without a high school degree. These results are robust to a range of strategies to construct reliable control groups. To explain the findings, the authors document the importance of three migration-induced demand channels: the complementarity between native and migrant labor, housing demand, and increased entrepreneurial activities.

Consequences of Labour Migration on Wages and Employment: Evidence from India

This paper evaluates the impact of migration on the labour market outcomes of non-migrant workers in India using unit-level data from the ‘Employment Unemployment and Migration Survey’ (NSSO 64th Round, 2007–2008). After correcting for endogeneity bias of migration using an instrument variable approach, the overall results of the study suggest that the inflow of migrant workers increases the wages of non-migrant workers but does not affect their employment. Disaggregating the analysis by sectors, the study finds a positive wage effect in the formal sector, which is more pronounced among the high-skilled workers. In the informal sector, the results indicate an adverse employment effect among both high- and low-skilled workers. The positive wage effect in the formal sector suggests complementarity between migrant and non-migrant workers. The adverse employment effect in the informal sector is possibly due to a preference for migrant workers over non-migrant workers. The estimated results are consistent with alternate specifications.

Minimum Wages in New Zealand: Policy and Practice in the 21st Century

New Zealand has seen dramatic changes in minimum wage policies since 2000. The adult minimum wage has increased 75% in CPI-adjusted real terms. In addition, the youth minimum wage was abolished in two stages, resulting in a 125% increase in the real minimum wage for 16–19-year-old workers. We review the motivations for minimum wages and the changes and analyse how they have affected workers outcomes. We find that the minimum wage now strongly determines the wages of teenage workers, with the minimum wage now at the median wage of teenagers, and over half of 16–17-year-olds, and about 40% of 18–19-year-olds, earning at or below the minimum.Although we find no clear evidence that increases in the minimum wage have led to adverse employment effects, we expect there are downside risks for youth and low skilled workers' employment. As minimum wage workers are broadly spread across the household income distribution, we conclude that minimum wages are largely ineffective as a redistributive income support policy.

Minimum Wages in New Zealand: Policy and practice in the 21st century

New Zealand has seen dramatic changes in minimum wage policies since 2000. The adult minimum wage has increased 75% in CPI-adjusted real terms. In addition, the youth minimum wage was abolished in two stages, resulting in a 125% increase in the real minimum wage for 16–19-year-old workers. We review the motivations for minimum wages and the changes and analyse how they have affected workers outcomes. We find that the minimum wage now strongly determines the wages of teenage workers, with the minimum wage now at the median wage of teenagers, and over half of 16–17-year-olds, and about 40% of 18–19-year-olds, earning at or below the minimum. Although we find no clear evidence that increases in the minimum wage have led to adverse employment effects, we expect there are downside risks for youth and low skilled workers' employment. As minimum wage workers are broadly spread across the household income distribution, we conclude that minimum wages are largely ineffective as a redistributive income support policy.

The Clash of ‘E’ and ‘S’ of ESG: Just Transition on the Path to Net Zero and the Implications for Sustainable Corporate Governance and Finance

Climate change is one of the highest-ranking issues on the political and social agenda. Vulnerabilities of the world ecosystem laid bare by the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential damage for the human and business life made the need for urgent action clear once again. Corporations are one of the main actors that will play a major role in the decarbonisation of the economy. They need to put forward a net zero strategy and targets, transitioning to net-zero by 2050. Yet, an important but rather overlooked stakeholder group in the sustainability debates can pose a significant stumbling block in this transition: employees. Although climate action has huge benefits by ameliorating adverse environmental events and is expected to have overall positive impact on employment, net zero transition in companies, especially in certain sectors and regions, will cause substantial adverse employment effects for the workforce. This has the potential to slow down or even derail the necessary climate action in companies. In this regard, just transition is a promising concept, which calls for a swift and decisive climate action in corporations while taking account of and mitigating adverse effects for their workforce. If well implemented, it can accelerate net zero transition in companies. This potential clash of environmental (E) and social (S) aspects of ESG agenda, materialised in the companies’ net zero transition, and its potential remedy, just transition, have important implications for corporate governance and finance, especially for directors’ duties & executive remuneration, sustainability disclosures, institutional investors’ engagement and green finance.

Myth or Measurement: What Does the New Minimum Wage Research Say About Minimum Wages and Job Loss in the United States?

The disagreement among studies of the employment effects of minimum wages in the United States is well known. What is less well known, and more puzzling, is the absence of agreement on what the research literature says – that is, how economists even summarize the body of evidence on the employment effects of minimum wages. Summaries range from “it is now well-established that higher minimum wages do not reduce employment,” to “the evidence is very mixed with effects centered on zero so there is no basis for a strong conclusion one way or the other,” to “most evidence points to adverse employment effects.” We explore the question of what conclusions can be drawn from the literature, focusing on the evidence using subnational minimum wage variation within the United States that has dominated the research landscape since the early 1990s. To accomplish this, we assembled the entire set of published studies in this literature and identified the core estimates that support the conclusions from each study, in most cases relying on responses from the researchers who wrote these papers.Our key conclusions are: (i) there is a clear preponderance of negative estimates in the literature; (ii) this evidence is stronger for teens and young adults as well as the less-educated; (iii) the evidence from studies of directly-affected workers points even more strongly to negative employment effects; and (iv) the evidence from studies of low-wage industries is less one-sided. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

How does employment respond to minimum wage adjustment in China?

Under what circumstances can minimum wages increase without adverse effects on employment levels? In 31 Chinese provinces between 2004 and 2015, the employment effect of a minimum wage depended on the minimum wage level, foreign direct investment, per capita gross domestic product and labour productivity. A minimum wage increase reduced hiring as foreign direct investment inflow rose, regardless of the amount of investment. Any positive employment effect of a minimum wage increase was mitigated by per capita gross domestic product growth, except when per capita gross domestic product was above the average. Above-average labour productivity enhancement significantly mitigated the adverse employment effect of the minimum wage. Employers responded to a rising minimum wage by increasing hiring when the geometric growth rates of the minimum wage and foreign direct investment for a particular province within a period of time were above the overall average across provinces. However, they scrutinised both annual and overall economic growth within a time period when making hiring decisions in the face of minimum wage adjustments. An inverted U-shape relationship between minimum wages and employment suggest a maximum threshold value for the minimum wage. Thus, government policy measures should foster short-term and long-term economic growth, to facilitate employment creation when minimum wages increase. JEL Codes: J38, J21, F16, O40

Minimum wage policy and the racial earnings gap

Economic Inequality The earnings gap between white and Black workers in the United States fell substantially only once over the past 70 years. Derenoncourt and Montialoux show how this change was driven in large part by the 1967 extension of the federal minimum wage to sectors that employed about 20% of the total U.S. workforce but nearly a third of Black workers, including agriculture, hotels, and schools. This policy extension can explain more than 20% of the decline in the racial earnings gap between 1965 and 1980 and did not have large adverse employment effects on either Black or white workers. The gap between the average wage in the treated industries and the rest of the economy fell, as did the gap between Black and white workers within the treated industries. Q. J. Econ. 10.1093/qje/qjaa031 (2020).

Immigration and the Tower of Babel: Using language barriers to identify individual labor market effects of immigration

This paper introduces a novel approach to estimating immigration impacts on natives’ labor market outcomes. Differential language requirements across occupations serve as an arguably exogenous source of variation during the large and sudden immigration surge to Norway after the enlargements of the European labor market in 2004 and 2007. Migrant inflow into occupations is instrumented with occupations’ required level of (Norwegian) language skills. Administrative register data allow for a rich set of individual-level outcomes. Comparing workers in occupations with different language requirements, I find that a one percentage point increase in the share of Eastern European workers reduced native workers’ labor earnings by 0.75 percent. I further find adverse employment effects and evidence of skill-upgrading, but largely no other form of worker mobility among treated individuals. In particular, young woŕkers were hit in the wage dimension and old workers in the employment dimension. The results are highly robust.