From snapshot to movie: decomposing the minimum wage effects on employment into hirings and separations

Abstract

PurposeWhile the effect of the minimum wage (MW) on employment has been widely studied, less is known about its impact on hirings and separations. Whereas the adverse effects of MW on hiring are quite familiar, results of studies indicating reductions in separations are less expected. This study aims to bridge the gap between theory and practice by performing a meta-analysis, which allows for understanding the real effect of MW on employment's two components: hirings and separations.Design/methodology/approachSince mixed results cloud understanding of the issue, a meta-regression analysis was conducted. This technique permits understanding the effect of MW on labor market transitions and offers additional explanations for controversial results.FindingsDespite the evidence that MW increasing the turnover and reducing permanence could negatively affect employment, findings from meta-regression analysis pointed out that increases in MW reduce hirings but also separations offsetting the negative effect on employment. Overall, the results imply that the standard finding that MW changes have little or no impact on employment rates reflects offsetting reductions in hiring and separations. Evidence of negative publication bias is also found.Research limitations/implicationsThe results emphasize the importance of looking beyond employment rates to understand the impacts of MW. Overall, the evidence implies that the standard finding that MW changes have little or no impact on employment rates reflects offsetting reductions in hiring and layoffs. In addition, the results suggest that MW tends to have a much larger impact on employment flows than on employment levels. This finding has to be considered by policymakers when they make decisions about increasing the MW. These analyses assist in clarifying debates about the effects of MW on the labor market in the changing economic environment and conduct a labor policy in the right direction.Practical implicationsThe meta-regression analysis (MRA) conducted in this study emphasizes the importance of looking beyond employment rates to understand the impacts of MW (Brochu and Green, 2013). Overall, the evidence implies that the standard finding that MW changes have little or no impact on employment rates reflects offsetting reductions in hiring and layoffs. Therefore, the evidence from the performed MRA is consistent with those previous meta-analysis studies that found little or no evidence about MW adversely affecting employment and, at the same time, provide additional explanation for these findings. In addition, the results suggest that MW tends to have a much larger impact on employment flows than on employment levels (Dube et al., 2016).Social implicationsEven though hirings are reduced due to MW, this evidence could not necessarily imply a negative effect of MW on the labor market since job searching or matching is improved. Additionally, the increases in MW could improve the quality of the job and the job attachment, which are consistent with a recruitment-retention model (Dube et al., 2007). The evidence from this MRA, which is consistent with little or no impact of MW on employment, also could imply that although the MW is set relatively high to balance the supply and demand of labor, their level is close to optimal. Setting the right level is also associated with compliance with MW. This issue deserves attention since any adverse employment effects of MW could be strengthened by incomplete coverage. The effectiveness of the entire process of developing, putting into practice and enforcing MW rules hinges on compliance.Originality/valueAs prior meta-regression analysis did not have the same objective, the results of this article move current research forward. Based on the analysis, future research lines are delineated, and some public policy implications are assessed.