Risk Of Mortality In Adults Research Articles

The effect of alcohol consumption on all-cause mortality in 70-year-olds in the context of other lifestyle risk factors: results from the Gothenburg H70 birth cohort study

BackgroundIn this study, we examined the effect of alcohol, as well as the combined effect of seven lifestyle factors, on all-cause mortality in older adults (baseline age 70 years).MethodsData was derived from the population-based Gothenburg H70 Birth Cohort study, including 1124 participants from the 2014–16 examination. Risk consumption was defined as > 98 g alcohol per week, and hazardous drinking was based on the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption questionnaire (AUDIT-C). Cox regression models were used to examine the individual effect of alcohol consumption, as well as the combined effect of seven lifestyle risk factors (high alcohol consumption, lifetime smoking, unhealthy Body Mass Index, insufficient physical activity, sedentary behavior, insufficient/prolonged sleep, unhealthy dietary pattern) on all-cause mortality.ResultsDuring a mean follow-up of 7.7 years, 81 (7.2%) participants died. Neither risk consumption nor hazardous drinking were associated with elevated mortality, but hazardous drinking was associated with an increased risk of mortality in those with insufficient physical activity. Those with at least five lifestyle risk factors had an increased all-cause mortality compared to those fulfilling criteria for a maximum of one lifestyle risk factor. High alcohol consumption showed a relatively minor impact on this risk, while physical activity and unhealthy dietary pattern had an independent effect on mortality.ConclusionsIn this particular sample, there was no independent effect of alcohol on the risk of 8-year all-cause mortality. However, an interaction effect of physical activity was observed. It may be that high alcohol consumption per se is less important for mortality among older adults. However, a combination of several unhealthy lifestyle behaviors was linked to a substantial increase in the risk of mortality in Swedish older adults. Also, it has to be emphasized that high alcohol consumption may have other adverse health effects apart from mortality among older adults.

Inappropriate medications increase risk of mortality in older adults on dialysis

Inappropriate medications increase risk of mortality in older adults on dialysis

Association between soluble α-klotho and mortality risk in middle-aged and older adults.

Studies on association of α-klotho levels with mortality risk in general population are relatively scarce and inconclusive. Therefore, we conducted a population-based cohort study to investigate the relationship between soluble α-klotho and all-cause mortality in a nationally representative sample of middle-aged and older adults in the United States (U.S.). The study population was 2007-2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) participants, totaling 13,583 adults aged 40-79 years. Participants were divided into 7 groups by septile of α-klotho levels. We linked the NHANES data to the National Death Index to determine participants' survival status. End of follow-up was participants' death date or December 31, 2019. We observed that males, current smokers, older age, higher body mass index, and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate correlated to lower α-klotho levels, while hepatitis C virus infection correlated to higher α-klotho. The population mortality rate was 11.8 per 10,000 person-months (1,490 deaths); group 1 (the first septile) had higher mortality risk compared with group 2 through group 7. By weighted Cox regression with adjustment for potential confounders, we found that group 2 through group 6, but not group 7, were associated with 25% to 35% lower risk of all-cause mortality compared with group 1. When compared with group 4, we observed that both group 1 (HR: 1.46, 95% CI 1.13-1.88) and group 7 (HR: 1.38, 95% CI 1.09-1.74) were associated with higher mortality risk. In summary, among middle-aged and older U.S. adults, we observed a non-linear association between soluble α-klotho and all-cause mortality, with individuals at the two extremes at increased risk of death.

Catheter ablation and lower risk of incident dementia and mortality in older adults with atrial fibrillation.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) has consistently been associated with a higher risk of incident dementia. Observational evidence has suggested catheter ablation may be associated with a lower risk of dementia in patients with AF, but further research is needed. The objectives of this study were to use a global health research network to examine associations between catheter ablation, incident dementia and mortality in older adults with AF, and amongst subgroups by age, sex, co-morbidity status, and oral anticoagulant use. The research network primarily included healthcare organizations in the United States. This network was searched on 28th September 2022 for patients aged ≥65 years with a diagnosis of AF received at least 5 years prior to the search date. Cox proportional hazard models were run on propensity-score matched cohorts. After propensity score matching, 20,746 participants (mean age 68 years; 59% male) were included in each cohort with and without catheter ablation. The cohorts were well balanced for age, sex, ethnicity, co-morbidities, and cardiovascular medications received. The risk of dementia was significantly lower in the catheter ablation cohort (Hazard Ratio 0.52, 95% confidence interval: 0.45-0.61). The catheter ablation cohort also had a lower risk of all-cause mortality (Hazard Ratio 0.58, 95% confidence interval: 0.55-0.61). These associations remained in subgroup analyses in individuals aged 65-79 years, ≥80 years, males, females, participants who received OACs during follow-up, participants with paroxysmal and non-paroxysmal AF, and participants with and without hypertension, diabetes mellitus, ischemic stroke, chronic kidney disease and heart failure, including heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. The observed lower risk of dementia and mortality with catheter ablation could be an important consideration when determining appropriate patient-centered rhythm control strategies for patients with AF. Further studies including data on the success of ablation are required.

Sedentary behavior and risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in United States adults with hypertension.

Growing evidence has implicated sedentary behavior is associated with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, independent of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Contrary to national physical activity guidelines, reductions in sedentary behavior are not promoted as a lifestyle modification in hypertensive adults. This may be in part because of a paucity of evidence demonstrating that sedentary behavior confers morbidity and mortality risk in hypertensive adults. To examine the association between device-measured sedentary behavior and risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality and in hypertensive adults. Data for this analysis come from the 2003 to 2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, a nationally representative survey of US adults. Sedentary behavior and MVPA were assessed with an ActiGraph 7164 accelerometer. Hypertension was classified as blood pressure at least 140/≥90 mmHg or antihypertensive medication use. Median follow-up was 14.5 years. After adjusting for covariates and MVPA, greater time spent in sedentary behavior was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular mortality [quartile 1: REF, quartile 2: hazard ratio = 1.41 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.83-2.38], quartile 3: hazard ratio = 1.25 (95% CI 0.81-1.94), quartile 4: hazard ratio = 2.14 (95% CI 1.41-3.24); P trend <0.001]. Greater sedentary behavior was also associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality [quartile 1: REF: quartile 2: hazard ratio = 1.13 (95% CI 0.83-1.52), quartile 3: hazard ratio = 1.33 (95% CI 1.00-1.78), quartile 4: hazard ratio = 2.06 (95% CI 1.60, 2.64); P trend <0.001]. Greater sedentary behavior is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality among US adults with hypertension. These findings suggest reductions in sedentary behavior should be considered to reduce mortality risk in hypertensive adults.

Concurrence of Insomnia and Daytime Sleepiness Predicted 9-Year Mortality Risk in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: The Yilan Study, Taiwan.

Co-occurring insomnia and daytime sleepiness has an undetermined clinical significance in older adults. We aimed to investigate the relationship between various combinations of insomnia and daytime sleepiness with mortality risk in community-dwelling older adults. The moderation effect of sex was also assessed. We conducted this follow-up study including community-dwelling adults aged ≥65 in Yilan City, Taiwan. Daytime sleepiness was defined as scoring ≥11 on the Epworth Sleepiness Scale. Insomnia was defined as scores ≥5 on the Athens Insomnia Scale-5. Four phenotypes were defined based on the presence of insomnia or daytime sleepiness. The 9-year mortality risks for various phenotypic combinations were estimated using Cox regression analysis. Sex-specific risks were examined using an interaction term. In total, 2 702 older adults participated in the study, and 59.1% were women. The total 9-year mortality rate was 27.5%. After adjusting for all covariates, compared with those without insomnia or daytime sleepiness, the phenotype of co-occurring insomnia with daytime sleepiness predicted higher mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.76, confidence interval [CI]: 1.20-2.58). In contrast, insomnia and daytime sleepiness alone did not correlate with higher mortality. The interaction between sex with co-occurring insomnia and daytime sleepiness was significant (p = .01). When stratifying by sex, the association between co-occurring insomnia and daytime sleepiness with higher mortality risk was male-specific (HR: 3.07, CI: 1.87-5.04). Concurrence of insomnia and daytime sleepiness indicates a toxic phenotypic combination in older adults, particularly in men. Precise public health and preventive medicine can be implemented through geriatric sleep medicine.

Serum Klotho Modifies the Associations of 25-Hydroxy Vitamin D With All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality.

The association between 25-hydroxyvitamin D and mortality remains controversial. Klotho, a biomarker of vitamin D activation and metabolism, may play a key role in this association. However, it is unclear whether the association between vitamin D deficiency and mortality risk is modified by klotho levels. Therefore, this study investigated the joint association of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and klotho with mortality risk in American community-dwelling adults. A total of 9870 adults from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2007-2016) were included in our study. Mortality data were ascertained by linking participants to National Death Index records. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association among serum 25(OH)D, serum klotho, and all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. We found a significant interaction between klotho and serum 25(OH)D in all-cause mortality (P = .028). With klotho > 848.4 pg/mL (risk threshold on mortality), no significant all-cause and CVD mortality risk was observed at any level of serum 25(OH)D. However, with klotho < 848.4 pg/mL, a significant all-cause and CVD mortality risk was observed with serum 25(OH)D < 50 nmol/L [hazards ratio (HR), 1.36; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.10-1.69; HR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.16-3.45) and serum 25(OH)D of continuous variable (HR, 0.98; 95% CI, .97-.99; HR, 0.98; 95% CI, .98-.99). In addition, vitamin D metabolism disruption accessed by the combination of decreasing serum 25(OH)D (<50 nmol/L) and klotho (<848.4 pg/mL) was associated with significant all-cause mortality (HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.11-1.96) and CVD mortality (HR, 2.36; 95% CI, 1.48-3.75). Vitamin D-associated mortality risk is observed only with concurrently decreasing klotho, indicating that vitamin D metabolism dysfunction increases the risk of mortality. Klotho levels could help predict long-term mortality outcomes and thus may be useful concurrently for guiding vitamin D supplementation therapy decision-making in populations with vitamin D deficiency.

Dietary protein intake and all-cause mortality: results from The Kawasaki Aging and Wellbeing Project

BackgroundIncreased protein intake has been recommended to prevent sarcopenia/frailty, reports on the quantity and quality of protein intake needed and the associated prognosis, particularly in the aging population of Asia, are limited. In this study, we aimed to investigate the relationship between protein intake and mortality in Japanese individuals, aged 85 years and older.MethodsThe data were obtained from The Kawasaki Aging and Wellbeing Project, which is a prospective cohort study of older adults aged between 85 and 89 years with no physical disability at baseline. Of the 1,026 adults in the cohort, 833 were included in the analysis, after excluding those who had not completed a brief, self-administered diet history questionnaire or those who scored less than 24 on the Mini-Mental State Examination. The participants were grouped into quartiles based on protein intake: Q1 (protein < 14.7, %Energy), Q2 (14.7 ≤ protein < 16.7, %Energy), Q3 (16.7 ≤ protein < 19.1, %Energy), and Q4 (≥ 19.1, %Energy). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were utilized to evaluate the association between protein intake and all-cause mortality. Kaplan–Meier survival curves were employed to investigate the relationship between protein intake and all-cause mortality.ResultsThe mean protein intake of our study population was 17.0% of total energy. Animal protein intake, particularly fish intake, increased significantly along with total protein intake. The study had an average observation period of 1,218 days and recorded 89 deaths. After adjusting for age, sex, skeletal muscle mass index, cardiovascular disease, cancer, education, and serum albumin levels, a lower risk of all-cause mortality was observed in the highest protein intake (Q4) group than in the lowest protein intake (Q1) group (hazard ratio: 0.44, 95% confidence interval: 0.22–0.90, p-value: 0.020).ConclusionProtein intake is associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality in older adults (aged ≥ 85 years) who engage in independent activities of daily living. This association may impact all-cause mortality independent of muscle mass.

Treatment and mortality risk of older adults with non-small cell cancer in Taiwan: A population-based cohort study.

Older patients tend to have decreased physical functions and more comorbidities than younger patients. At present, the best management for very elderly patients with lung cancer is not known. In this study, we aimed to investigate treatment and mortality risk of older adults with non-small cell cancer (NSCLC) in Taiwan. This study analyzed data from the Taiwan Cancer Registry database. Patients aged ≥80 years with newly diagnosed NSCLC between 2010 and 2017 were included. Treatment options were categorized as curative, palliative, and no treatment. Patients were followed up until death or December 31, 2020. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate mortality risk, and Kaplan-Meier survival curves were drawn. A total of 11 941 patients, aged ≥80 years, with newly diagnosed NSCLC between 2010 and 2017 were identified from the Taiwan Cancer Registry and followed up until 2020. The mean age was 84.4 ± 3.7 years old, and 7468 (62.54%) were men. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed significant differences across the three treatment options (log-rank p < 0.001). Results from multivariate Cox regression demonstrated that patients on palliative treatment (adjusted HR: 0.52, 95% CI: 0.48-0.56, p < 0.001) and curative treatment (adjusted HR: 0.45, 95% CI: 0.42-0.48, p < 0.001) had a significantly lower mortality risk than those with no treatment. The subgroup analyses stratified by cancer stages also showed consistent findings. Elderly patients with NSCLC had significantly decreased mortality risk when receiving curative or palliative treatment compared with those without treatment. In the future, further studies are warranted to investigate complications and quality of life of elderly patients with NSCLC during palliative or curative treatment.

Adverse childhood experiences and all-cause mortality risk in adulthood

BackgroundAdverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) have been associated with mortality risk in adulthood. It is unclear, however, whether ACEs perpetrated beyond parents may be associated with mortality risk, if the risk is accumulative or plateaus at a certain frequency, whether associations differ dependent on ACE types, whether types interact with one another, or if observed effects differ by sex. ObjectiveTo examine associations between ACEs and mortality risk. Participants and setting6319 participants (age range 25–74 years, mean [SD] 46.91 [12.95] years; 51.6 % female) followed from 1995/96 to 2018 as part of the survey of Midlife Development in the United States. MethodsACE variables were self-reported exposure to 20 ACE types from five categories: physical abuse, emotional abuse, socioeconomic disadvantage, adverse family structure, and poor health at age 16 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate mortality risk. ResultsACEs were accumulatively associated with increased mortality risk in adjusted models (HR = 1.033; p ≤ .001, 95 % CI, 1.014–1.053). The association was linear. Only physical abuse (HR = 1.05; p = .024, 95 % CI, 1.01–1.10) remained significantly predictive of increased mortality risk adjusting for other types. No interaction by sex or amongst ACE types was observed. ConclusionsACEs may be cumulatively associated with increased mortality risk, such that each individual ACE increases risk. Physical abuse may be an important ACE type within a mortality risk context. Individual ACE types warrant further study as each type may have their own differential impact on mortality risk.

Association between malnutrition and stroke-associated pneumonia in patients with ischemic stroke

BackgroundMalnutrition is associated with a high risk of mortality in adults with ischemic stroke (IS). This study aimed to investigate the relationship between malnutrition and the risk of stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) as only a few studies examined the relationship between malnutrition and the risk of SAP in IS.MethodsPatients were included from emergency departments of five tertiary hospitals in the REtrospective Multicenter study for Ischemic Stroke Evaluation (REMISE) study from January 2020 to December 2020. Malnutrition was defined according to the Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT), Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI), and Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI) systems. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to explore the association between malnutrition and risk of SAP.ResultsWe enrolled 915 patients with IS, 193 (14.75%), 495 (54.1%), and 148 (16.2%) of whom were malnourished according to the PNI, CONUT, and GNRI scores, respectively. SAP occurred in 294 (32.1%) patients. After adjusting for confounding influencing factors in the logistic regression analysis, malnutrition (moderate and severe risk vs. absent malnutrition) was independently associated with an increased risk of SAP based on the PNI (odds ratio [OR], 5.038; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.435–10.421, P < 0.001), CONUT (OR, 6.941; 95% CI 3.034–15.878, P < 0.001), and GNRI (OR, 2.007; 95% CI 1.186–3.119, P = 0.005) scores. Furthermore, adding malnutrition assessment indices to the A2DS2 score significantly improved the ability to predict SAP by analysis of receiver operating characteristic curves and net reclassification improvement.ConclusionMalnutrition was notably prevalent in patients with IS and independently associated with an increased risk of SAP. Further studies are required to identify the effect of interventions on malnutrition to reduce the risk of SAP.

Body Mass Index and All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in United States Adults With and Without Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: Findings from the National Health Interview Survey.

In a nationally representative population-based study of US adults, the authors sought to examine the association between body mass index (BMI) and all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in a nationally representative sample of adults with and without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), and further stratified by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. The study used data from 2006 to 2015 National Health Interview Survey and categorized participants into the following BMI categories: normal weight (20-24.9), overweight (25-29.9), obesity class 1 (30-34.9), obesity class 2 (35-39.9), and obesity class 3 (≥40 kg/m2). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the risk of all-cause and CVD mortality across successively increasing BMI categories overall, and by sociodemographic subgroups. A total of 210,923 individuals were included in the final analysis. In the population without ASCVD, the risk of all-cause and CVD mortality was lower in overweight and higher in obesity classes 2 and 3, compared with normal weight, with the highest risk observed in the young adult (age 18-39) population. Elderly adults (65 and above) and populations with ASCVD exhibited a BMI-mortality paradox. In addition, Hispanic individuals did not show a relationship between BMI and mortality compared with non-Hispanic White and Black adults. In conclusion, being overweight was associated with decreased risk, whereas obesity class 3 was consistently associated with increased risk of all-cause and CVD mortality in adults without ASCVD, particularly young adults. BMI-mortality paradox was noted in ASCVD, elderly, and non-Hispanic adults.

Associations of complete blood cell count-derived inflammatory biomarkers with asthma and mortality in adults: a population-based study.

This study aims to assess the associations of complete blood cell count (CBC)-derived inflammatory biomarkers with the prevalence of asthma and mortality. Data was collected from the 1999-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Mortality was identified using the National Death Index until December 31, 2019. The study analyzed the relationship between CBC-derived inflammatory biomarkers, including neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI), and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), and the prevalence of asthma using multiple logistic regressions. To assess the significance of CBC-derived inflammatory biomarkers in predicting all-cause and respiratory disease mortality in asthma patients, Coxproportional regressions and the random survival forest (RSF) analysis were utilized. A total of 48,305 participants were included, with a mean age of 47.27 ± 0.18 years and 49.44% male. Among them, 6,403 participants had asthma, with a prevalence of 13.28%. The all-cause and respiratory disease deaths at a median follow-up of 8.2 (4.5, 12.8) years were 929 and 137 respectively. After adjusting for confounders, the prevalence of asthma was found to be positively associated with NLR, PLR, MLR, SIRI and SII. Compared to the lowest quartile, the highest quartile of NLR (HR=1.765 [1.378-2.262]), MLR (HR=1.717 [1.316-2.241]), SIRI (HR=1.796 [1.353-2.383]) and SII (HR=1.432 [1.141-1.797]) were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. These associations were more pronounced in respiratory disease mortality of asthma patients. RSF analysis showed that MLR had the highest predictive value for all-cause and respiratory disease mortality in adults with asthma. The sensitivity analysis demonstrated the stability of our results. The findings suggest that CBC-derived inflammatory biomarkers are associated with a higher risk of all-cause and respiratory disease mortality in adults with asthma.

Hydroxychloroquine use is associated with reduced mortality risk in older adults with rheumatoid arthritis.

There is little robust data about the cardiovascular safety of hydroxychloroquine in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), who often have cardiovascular comorbidities. We examined the association between use of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) in patients with RA and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). In a retrospective cohort of Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥ 65years with RA, we identified patients who initiated HCQ (users) and who did not initiate HCQ (non-users) between January 2015-June 2017. Each HCQ user was matched to 2 non-users of HCQ using propensity score derived from patient baseline characteristics. The primary outcome was the occurrence of MACE, defined as acute admissions for stroke, myocardial infarction, or heart failure. Secondary outcomes included all-cause mortality and the composite of MACE and all-cause mortality. Cox proportional hazards model was used to compare outcomes between HCQ users to non-users. The study included 2380 RA patients with incident HCQ use and matched 4633 HCQ non-users over the study period. The mean follow-up duration was 1.67 and 1.63years in HCQ non-users and users, respectively. In multivariable models, use of HCQ was not associated with the risk of MACE (hazard ratio 1.1; 95% CI: 0.832-1.33). However, use of HCQ was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 0.54; 95% CI: 0.45-0.64) and the composite of all-cause mortality and MACE (HR 0.67; 95% CI: 0.58-0.78). HCQ use was independently associated with a lower risk of mortality in older adults with RA but not with incidence of MACE events. Key Points • Using an incident user design (to avoid the biases of a prevalent user design) and a population-based approach, we examined the effect of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) on the risk of major cardiovascular events (MACE) in older patients with RA. • We did not find an association between HCQ use and incident MACE. We did, however, find a significant association with the composite outcome (MACE and all-cause mortality) driven by a significant reduction in all-cause mortality with HCQ use.

All-cause and major-cause mortality associated with sleep latency in the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (KoGES): a population-based prospective cohort study

The all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk associated with sleep latencies in the general adult population is unknown. We aimed to investigate the association of habitual prolonged sleep latency with long-term all-cause and cause-specific mortality in adults. The Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (KoGES) is a population-based prospective cohort study comprising community-dwelling men and women aged 40-69 years from Ansan, South Korea. The cohort was studied bi-annually from April 17, 2003, to Dec 15, 2020, and the current analysis included all individuals who completed the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) questionnaire between April 17, 2003, and Feb 23, 2005. The final study population comprised 3757 participants. Data were analysed from Aug 1, 2021, to May 31, 2022. The main exposure was sleep latency groups based on the PSQI questionnaire: fell asleep in 15 min or less, fell asleep in 16-30 min, occasional prolonged sleep latency (fell asleep in >30 min once or twice a week in the past month) and habitual prolonged sleep latency (fell asleep in >60 min more than once a week or fell asleep in >30 min ≥3 times a week, or both) in the past month at baseline. Outcomes were all-cause and cause-specific (cancer, cardiovascular disease, and other causes) mortality reported during the 18-year study period. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the prospective relationship between sleep latency and all-cause mortality, and competing risk analyses were done to investigate the association of sleep latency with cause-specific mortality. During a median follow-up of 16·7 years (IQR 16·3-17·4), 226 deaths were reported. After adjusting for demographic characteristics, physical characteristics, lifestyle factors, chronic conditions, and sleep variables, self-reported habitual prolonged sleep latency was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 2·22, 95% CI 1·38-3·57) compared to the reference group (those who fell asleep in 16-30 min). In the fully adjusted model, habitual prolonged sleep latency was associated with a more than doubled risk of dying from cancer compared to the reference group (HR 2·74, 95% CI 1·29-5·82). No significant association was observed between habitual prolonged sleep latency and deaths from cardiovascular disease and other causes. In this population-based prospective cohort study, habitual prolonged sleep latency was independently associated with an increased risk of all-cause and cancer-specific mortality in adults (independently of demographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, chronic morbidities, and other sleep variables). Although further studies are warranted to investigate the causality of the relationship, strategies or interventions to prevent habitual prolonged sleep latencies might enhance longevity in the general adult population. Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Quantifying Healthy Aging in Older Veterans Using Computational Audio Analysis.

Researchers are increasingly interested in better methods for assessing the pace of aging in older adults, including vocal analysis. The present study sought to determine whether paralinguistic vocal attributes improve estimates of the age and risk of mortality in older adults. To measure vocal age, we curated interviews provided by male U.S. World War II Veterans in the Library of Congress collection. We used diarization to identify speakers and measure vocal features and matched recording data to mortality information. Veterans (N = 2 447) were randomly split into testing (n = 1 467) and validation (n = 980) subsets to generate estimations of vocal age and years of life remaining. Results were replicated to examine out-of-sample utility using Korean War Veterans (N = 352). World War II Veterans' average age was 86.08 at the time of recording and 91.28 at the time of death. Overall, 7.4% were prisoners of war, 43.3% were Army Veterans, and 29.3% were drafted. Vocal age estimates (mean absolute error = 3.255) were within 5 years of chronological age, 78.5% of the time. With chronological age held constant, older vocal age estimation was correlated with shorter life expectancy (aHR = 1.10; 95% confidence interval: 1.06-1.15; p < .001), even when adjusting for age at vocal assessment. Computational analyses reduced estimation error by 71.94% (approximately 8 years) and produced vocal age estimates that were correlated with both age and predicted time until death when age was held constant. Paralinguistic analyses augment other assessments for individuals when oral patient histories are recorded.

Long-term mortality risk of valvular heart disease adults over 35 years old in Chinese communities

Objective: To investigate the risk and influencing factors of long-term mortality of valvular heart disease (VHD) adults aged 35 years and over in Chinese communities. Methods: A cohort study was carried out. The data of the subjects who underwent echocardiography were collected from the Chinese Hypertension Survey between 2012 and 2015 and survival outcomes were followed up between 2018 and 2019. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were plotted and compared using log-rank test. Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze the influence of VHD on mortality. Results: During an average follow-up time of (4.6±0.9) years, a total of 23 237 participants (10 881 males and 12 356 females) were pooled into the final analysis from 5 eastern, 5 central, and 4 western provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China, with a mean age of (56.9±13.2) years. Among the included participants, 1 004 had VHD (467 males and 537 females), with a mean age was of (68.1±12.6) years. In the Kaplan-Meier analysis, participants with VHD had a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality (log-rank χ2=351.82, P<0.001) and cardiovascular mortality (log-rank χ2=284.14, P<0.001) compared with those without VHD. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that compared with those without VHD, the participants with rheumatic VHD had a 45% increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR=1.45, 95%CI: 1.12-1.89) and degenerative VHD increased the risk of cardiovascular mortality by 69% (HR=1.69, 95%CI: 1.19-2.38). The risk factors of cardiovascular mortality for VHD were age 55 years and over (55-<75 years: HR=4.93, 95%CI: 1.17-20.85;≥75 years: HR=11.92, 95%CI: 2.85-49.80) and diabetes mellitus (HR=1.71, 95%CI: 1.00-2.93). Conclusions: VHD is a risk factor of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality among adults aged 35 years and over. Age 55 years and over and diabetes mellitus are adverse prognostic factors for patients with VHD.

Long-Term Mortality Risk in Older Adults with Sarcopenia: An 11-Year Prospective Cohort Study Comparing AWGS 2014 and AWGS 2019 Guidelines for Enhanced Clinical Utility and Accurate Risk Prediction.

To discern the diagnostic accuracy between the updated diagnostic consensus of the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia (AWGS) in 2019 (AWGS 2019) and the previous AWGS 2014 guidelines. A prospective population-based cohort study. The study included 731 older community-dwelling adults aged ≥ 65 years who participated in face-to-face interviews and were followed up for 11-year mortality until 31 Mar 2022. We utilized a handgrip strength dynamometer to measure participants' muscle strength, while their walking speed was determined by a timed 6-meter walk test at their usual pace. Additionally, muscle mass was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scanning. Sarcopenia was defined as the presence of low muscle mass in combination with weakness and/or slowness both by AWGS 2014 and 2019 criteria. The present study followed 731 participants (mean age 73.4 ± 5.4 years, men predominant 52.8%) over a period of 11 years, yielding 5927 person-years and 159 deaths. Prevalence of sarcopenia defined by AWGS 2019 and 2014 criteria were 8.5% and 6.8%, respectively. Sarcopenia defined by AWGS 2019 (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.04-2.54, p=0.034) but not AWGS 2014 was significantly associated with mortality in community-living older adults after adjusting for potential confounders such as age, sex, education, drinking, disease burden and serum level of testosterone. The study also found that the AWGS 2019 criteria had a better model fitness than AWGS 2014 criteria in predicting mortality. AWGS 2019 criteria outperformed AWGS 2014 in identifying sarcopenia risk and predicting mortality. Screening for sarcopenia in older adults may improve health outcomes by identifying those at increased mortality risk.

P52 Addressing the overtreatment of basal cell carcinoma and other skin cancer in the UK

Abstract The incidence of keratinocyte cancers continues to increase in the UK, although survival is favourable compared with other cancers. This, coupled with a progressively ageing population, has resulted in an increasing number of clinical situations in which we question the benefit to the patient of treating their skin cancer. Currently, the main barrier to preventing overtreatment is the lack of a nationally accepted method for determining survival in patients with skin cancers. This study aims to identify trends in national datasets that support decision-making in basal cell carcinoma (BCC) intervention for frail patients. Frailty is multifactorial, but age is an independent predictor of physical frailty. National databases (Get Data Out—CancerData; national life tables from the UK Office for National Statistics) were accessed to identify the average life expectancy at a given age based on the mortality rates experienced between 2018 and 2022. Average life expectancy reduced in a linear fashion with increasing age. At 80 years of age, the average number of years a woman survived was 9.66 years vs. 3.6 years at 93 years of age. Crude rates for BCC in the whole population (total BCC) are lower than the crude rates in the older population (80+ years). Kaplan–Meier survival (i.e. how many patients are alive after 5 years) was 80% overall and dropped to approximately 55% for the population aged 80+ years. These data support the notion that with increasing age and subsequent frailty, life expectancy in the general population independent of comorbidities shortens. Having hard cutoffs for surgical intervention by age is a reductionist approach. Potential decision aids include frailty scores. Some frailty scores are specifically designed to estimate all-cause mortality. The OPERAM (Optimising Therapy to Prevent Avoidable Hospital Admissions in Multimorbid Older People) trial compared several of these mortality scores. The Gagné Index performed most highly with a positive predictive value of 31% and a negative predictive value of 85% (Schneider C, Aubert CE, del Giovane C et al. Comparison of 6 mortality risk scores for prediction of 1-year mortality risk in older adults with multimorbidity. JAMA Netw Open 2022; 5:e2223911). The combination of national data and predictive scoring systems may be helpful in supporting decision-making when considering surgical intervention. Modification of this approach to achieve greater predictive value may be possible in order to achieve better outcomes.

Self-rated health, interviewer-rated health, and objective health, their changes and trajectories over time, and the risk of mortality in Chinese adults.

Self-rated health (SRH), interviewer-rated health (IRH), and objective health reflect the overall health status from different aspects. This study aimed to investigate the associations of SRH, IRH, and objective health with mortality among Chinese older adults. This study used data from the 2008 (baseline), 2011, 2014 and 2018 waves of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. SRH and IRH were evaluated by questionnaire. Objective health was evaluated by the Chinese multimorbidity-weighted index (CMWI), which incorporated 14 diagnosed chronic diseases. SRH, IRH, and CMWI were assessed as: (1) baseline levels; (2) longitudinal changes by subtracting the values obtained in 2008 from the corresponding values in 2014; (3) trajectories by Group-Based Trajectory Modeling, respectively. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to explore the associations of baseline SRH, IRH, and CMWI, their changes, and trajectories with mortality. A total of 13,800 participants were included at baseline (2008). The baseline SRH ([hazard ratio] 0.93, [95% confidence interval] 0.91-0.96), IRH (0.84, 0.81-0.87), and CMWI (0.99, 0.98-1.00) in 2008 were significantly associated with 10-year mortality (2008 to 2018). Among 3,610 participants, the changes of SRH (0.93, 0.87-0.98), IRH (0.77, 0.71-0.83), and CMWI (0.97, 0.95-0.99) from 2008 to 2014 were significantly associated with 4-year mortality (2014-2018). The trajectories were divided into "high SRH/IRH/CMWI" and "low and declining SRH/IRH/CMWI." Compared with "low and declining SRH/IRH/CMWI," "high SRH" (0.58, 0.48-0.70), "high IRH" (0.66, 0.55-0.80), and "high CMWI" (0.74, 0.61-0.89) from 2008 to 2014 were significantly associated with 4-year mortality (2014-2018). Baseline SRH, IRH, and CMWI, their changes and trajectories are all associated with mortality in Chinese older adults. It is possibly necessary to promote the use of cost-effective indicators in primary medical institutions to improve the health management of the older adults.