Risk Of Mortality In Adults Research Articles

Cognitive impairment assessed by Mini-Mental State Examination predicts all-cause and CVD mortality in Chinese older adults: A 10-year follow-up study.

Cognitive impairment (CI) has been demonstrated as a useful proxy measure of mortality in Western populations. However, the predictive value of CI in Chinese populations is unknown. We aimed to explore whether CI is independently associated with increased long-term all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in Chinese older adults and the association of performance in specific MMSE sub-domains to subsequent mortality. A total of 4,499 older adults [mean (SD) age, 70.3(6.7) years] who received a sample investigation from 2011 to 2014 were followed up till 2021 for mortality. The Mini-Mental State Examination was used to assess cognitive function, and Cox's proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the effects of cognitive function on the risk of all-cause and CVD mortality. Demographic characteristics, lifestyle, and health status were included as covariates. During a 10-year follow-up, a total of 667 (14.8%) died. In the fully adjusted model, compared with cognitively normal participants with CI had a 1.33-fold [HR, 1.33; (95% CI, 1.10-1.61)] greater risk of all-cause mortality and a 1.45-fold [HR, 1.45; (95% CIs, 1.11-1.92)] greater risk of CVD mortality. After a similar multivariable adjustment, a per-SD increase in MMSE scores was associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality [HR, 0.85; (95% CI, 0.78-0.93)] and CVD mortality [HR, 0.74; (95% CI, 0.65-0.84)]. In the unadjusted model, MMSE sub-domains (apart from immediate recall) were associated with mortality. But only orientation and calculation and attention were still independently associated with all-cause and CVD mortality in a multivariable model. These findings confirmed that CI is a marker of all-cause and CVD mortality risk in Chinese older adults, independently of other commonly assessed risk factors, and some sub-domains of the MMSE may have stronger associations with mortality. Further research is needed to identify the mechanisms underlying the observed associations.

Doubly labelled water-calibrated energy intake associations with mortality risk among older adults.

The body mass index (BMI) is closely related to mortality risk, and energy intake (EI) is essential for maintaining energy balance in weight control. However, self-reported EI has been shown to lead to a systematic underestimation. Total energy expenditure measured using the doubly labelled water (DLW) method is considered an objective biomarker of EI and the gold standard for its estimation in individuals with stable body weight. We aimed to examine the association between DLW-calibrated EI and BMI on overall mortality risk in older adults. A prospective cohort study was performed using data of 8051 (4267 women and 3784 men) Japanese older adults from the Kyoto-Kameoka Study in Japan. Calibrated EI was calculated from the estimated EI using a food frequency questionnaire and equation developed based on DLW. Participants were classified by quartiles based on their EI stratified by sex. BMI was calculated using self-reported height and body weight. Mortality data were collected between 30 July 2011 and 30 November 2016. Statistical analysis was performed using the multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard model with a restricted cubic spline. The 8051 participants' mean (standard deviation) age and BMI were 73.5 (6.1) years and 22.6 (3.0) kg/m2 , respectively. The mean (standard deviation) EI with and without calibration was 1909 (145) kcal/day and 1569 (358) kcal/day in women and 2383 (160) kcal/day and 1980 (515) kcal/day in men, respectively. During the median 4.75years of follow-up (36552 person-years), 661 deaths were recorded. In both women (hazard ratio [HR], 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI] [0.41, 0.98]) and men (HR, 0.62; 95% CI [0.44, 0.87]), after adjusting for confounders, the top quartile as compared with the bottom calibrated EI quartile showed a negative association with risk of all-cause mortality. The lowest HR for all-cause mortality was 1900-2000kcal/day in women and 2400-2600kcal/day in men. However, after adjusting for BMI, no significant association was observed between the calibrated EI and the risk of death. These associations could not be confirmed in the uncalibrated EI. The HR for mortality was minimal at a BMI of 23kg/m2 in both men and women, with or without adjustment for the calibrated EI. Calibrated EI was negatively associated with mortality risk but not uncalibrated EI. This may be mediated by an increase in body weight over time. Caution is required when interpreting the association between EI and mortality risk without adjusting for self-reported measurement errors and outcomes.

Loneliness, social network size and mortality in older adults: a meta-analysis.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10433-022-00740-z.

Isolated systolic or diastolic hypertension and mortality risk in young adults using the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association blood pressure guideline: a longitudinal cohort study.

Little is known regarding the health effects of different hypertension phenotypes including isolated systolic hypertension (ISH), isolated diastolic hypertension (IDH), and systolic and diastolic hypertension (SDH) defined by the 2017 American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) guideline among young adults. We conducted this longitudinal study using time-varying analyses to evaluate the relationship between cardiovascular/all-natural mortality risk and different hypertension phenotypes in young adults. A total of 284 597 young adults (aged 18-39 years) were recruited between 1996 and 2016. Participants were classified into eight mutually exclusive BP groups: normal blood pressure (BP), elevated BP, stage 1 IDH, stage 1 ISH, stage 1 SDH, stage 2 IDH, stage 2 ISH, and stage 2 SDH. The outcomes were cardiovascular and all-natural mortality. After a median follow-up of 15.8 years, 2341 all-natural deaths with 442 cardiovascular deaths were observed. When compared with individuals with normal BP, the multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of cardiovascular mortality was 1.39 (1.01-1.93) for elevated BP, 2.00 (1.45-2.77) for stage 1 IDH, 1.66 (1.08-2.56) for stage 1 ISH, 3.08 (2.13-4.45) for stage 1 SDH, 2.85 (1.76-4.62) for stage 2 IDH, 4.30 (2.96-6.25) for stage 2 ISH, and 6.93 (4.99-9.61) for stage 2 SDH, respectively. In consideration to all-natural mortality, similar results were observed for stage 1 SDH, stage 2 ISH, and stage 2 SDH; but not for elevated BP, stage 1 IDH, stage 1 ISH, and stage 2 IDH. Young adults with stage 1 or stage 2 ISH, IDH, and SDH are at increased risk of cardiovascular death than those with normal BP. Regardless of BP stage, SDH was associated with a higher cardiovascular mortality risk than IDH and ISH.

Supervised Learning Algorithm for Predicting Mortality Risk in Older Adults Using Cardiovascular Health Study Dataset

Multiple chronic conditions are an important factor influencing mortality in older adults. At the same time, cardiovascular events in older adult patients are one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide. This study aimed to design a machine learning model capable of predicting mortality risk in older adult patients with cardiovascular pathologies and multiple chronic diseases using the Cardiovascular Health Study database. The methodology for algorithm design included (i) database analysis, (ii) variable selection, (iii) feature matrix creation and data preprocessing, (iv) model training, and (v) performance analysis. The analysis and variable selection were performed through previous knowledge, correlation, and histograms to visualize the data distribution. The machine learning models selected were random forest, support vector machine, and logistic regression. The models were trained using two sets of variables. First, eight years of the data were summarized as the mode of all years per patient for each variable (123 variables). The second set of variables was obtained from the mode every three years (369 variables). The results show that the random forest trained with the second set of variables has the best performance (89% accuracy), which is better than other reported results in the literature.

Abstract 11275: Comorbidity Score is Positively Associated With Hopelessness in Adults With Ischemic Heart Disease

Introduction: Comorbidities are associated with increased risk of mortality in adults with ischemic heart disease (IHD). Hopelessness, a negative outlook and sense of helplessness towards the future, is identified in 27–52% of patients with IHD and associated with a 3.4 times increased risk of mortality or nonfatal myocardial infarction. The relationship between comorbidities and hopelessness in adults with IHD is unknown. Hypothesis: A higher comorbidity score is positively associated with state and trait hopelessness levels in adults hospitalized with an IHD event. Methods: Participants completed the State-Trait Hopelessness Scale and reported basic demographics. Continuous (range 0-14) and categorical scores for the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) were generated based on patient medical records. Results: Participants (n=132) were typical of the U.S. IHD population except for race/ethnicity. Ninety-one were male (68.4%), mean age was 62.6 years (SD= 9.6), and 97% were non-Latinx White (3.0%). The mean CCI was 3.5 (SD=2.2), with 36.4% having a score of 1-2 (mild), 41.2% with a score of 3-4 (moderate) and 22.7% with a score of ≥5 (severe). The CCI was positively associated with both state and trait hopelessness in unadjusted and adjusted (demographics, medical history, and exercise history) analyses (unadjusted: r=0.26, p=0.002 (state); r=0.23, p=0.009 (trait) and adjusted: r=0.22, p=0.008 (state); r=0.18, p=0.052 (trait)). Components of the CCI showing the strongest relationships with higher levels of hopelessness were cerebrovascular accident (n=8), organ damage from diabetes (n=17), COPD (n=24), and renal failure (n=9). Interaction terms were evaluated and there was no evidence that the relationship between the CCI and hopelessness differed by age, gender, education level, or cardiac intervention type. Conclusions: Our hypothesis of a positive association between comorbidity score and state and trait hopelessness was confirmed. Knowledge of hopelessness in IHD patients with comorbidities is important for health care professionals in acute care and outpatient settings so at-risk patients can be identified and appropirate interventions employed. Future work should be conducted in larger, more heterogeneous samples.

Abstract 11398: Prevalence and Characteristics of Systemic Inflammation in Adults With Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease and Chronic Kidney Disease: Results From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

Introduction: Systemic inflammation is linked to the development of atherosclerosis and the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events and mortality in adults with atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Despite this, the epidemiology of systemic inflammation in this high-risk population has not been well described. Here, we estimate the prevalence of systemic inflammation in US adults with ASCVD with CKD, and characterize this population. Methods: Data were from the 2015-2020 pre-pandemic National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) cycles. Adults ≥ 20 years who completed the NHANES Medical Conditions Questionnaire and had non-missing serum creatinine and hsCRP levels, plus age, sex and ethnicity data, were included in this study. Systemic inflammation was defined as hsCRP ≥ 2 mg/L. To estimate prevalence in the US population, weighting was performed as outlined in the NHANES guidelines. Results: In total, 12 722 of 25 531 individuals met all the inclusion criteria. Based on weighted estimates, 8.4% of the general US population had ASCVD; of this group, 36.0% also had CKD and 22.1% had CKD stage 3/4. Systemic inflammation was present in 55.2% (95% CI, 49.8-60.6) of individuals with ASCVD, in 59.4% (53.4-65.2) with ASCVD and CKD, and in 62.1% (55.2-68.8) with ASCVD and CKD stage 3/4. The prevalence of individuals with systemic inflammation, ASCVD and CKD stage 3/4 among the US population was estimated at 1.2% (0.9-1.4). This group had a mean age of 72.1 years and a mean BMI of 31.9 kg/m 2 , 30.8% had type 2 diabetes and 38.9% had had an overnight hospital stay in the past 12 months ( Table ). A sensitivity analysis (patients with hsCRP 2-10 mg/L) had similar results. Conclusions: In this US survey, a large proportion of adults with ASCVD and CKD stage 3/4 had systemic inflammation. This group comprises an estimated 2.5 million adults who are likely to benefit from further targeted risk reduction efforts to help improve their cardiovascular outcomes.

Abstract 12463: Low-Density-Lipoprotein Cholesterol and Mortality Outcomes Among Healthy Older Adults Not Taking Lipid-Lowering Agents: A Cohort Study With 12,334 Participants

Introduction: Clinical uncertainty remains about the relationship between cholesterol levels and risk of death in older persons. Hypothesis: Lower low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol level was associated with a decreased mortality risk from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and an increased mortality risk due to non-CVD causes in primary prevention older populations. Methods: We examined the relationship between LDL cholesterol levels and mortality outcomes in a cohort of older individuals aged ≥65 years enrolled into a clinical trial. At baseline, participants had no diagnosed dementia, physical disability or CVD events, and were not taking lipid-lowering agents. Multivariable Cox proportional-hazards models were used to examine associations of LDL cholesterol with all-cause, CVD, cancer, and combined non-CVD/non-cancer mortality. Restricted cubic splines were used to depict non-linear relationships. Results: Among 12,334 participants included in this analysis [mean (SD) age: 75.2 (4.6) years; 54% females], who were followed for a median of 6.9 (5.7-8.0) years, 1250 (10%) died (24% due to CVD, 43% cancer, and 33% non-CVD/non-cancer). There was a U-shaped relation linking LDL cholesterol and all-cause mortality (nadir: 3.3mmol/L) and a curvilinear relation for other mortality outcomes. Each 1-mmol/L higher LDL cholesterol was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR=0.91, 95% CI 0.85-0.98), cancer mortality (0.83, 0.74-0.94) and non-CVD/non-cancer mortality (0.81, 0.71-0.93), but a higher risk of CVD mortality (1.19, 1.03-1.38). Reduced risks of all-cause and non-CVD/non-cancer mortality were only significant in males and but not females (P values for sex interaction <0.05). When deaths in the five years after baseline were excluded, the HRs for all-cause, cancer, non-CVD/non-cancer and CVD mortality were 1.03, 1.05, 0. 91 and 1.21 respectively (all P>0.10). Conclusions: Higher LDL cholesterol is associated with a greater risk of CVD mortality in older adults. Reduced risks for non-CVD mortality were likely driven by reverse causality, evidenced by the absence of associations after excluding deaths that occurred within the initial five years of follow-up.

Association Between Motoric Cognitive Risk Syndrome and Risk of Mortality in Older Adults: Results of a 5-year Retrospective Cohort

Association Between Motoric Cognitive Risk Syndrome and Risk of Mortality in Older Adults: Results of a 5-year Retrospective Cohort

Associations of Inflammation with Risk of Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality in Adults with Hypertension: An Inflammatory Prognostic Scoring System

Inflammation is one of the major pathways in the progression of hypertension (HTN), and the related inflammatory markers have demonstrated certain predictive values. The current study aimed to integrate these markers to construct an inflammatory prognostic scoring (IPS) system and to assess the prognostic values of IPS in patients with HTN. A total of 9846 adult participants with HTN from NHANES 1999-2010 were enrolled and followed up. Demographic characteristics and the related laboratory results for the 12 inflammatory markers were collected. LASSO-COX regression, Kaplan-Meier, restricted cubic spline COX regression (RCS), receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC), and random survival forests (RSF) analysis were applied to explore the values of individual and IPS parameters. At the census date of follow-up, 2387 (24.2%) were identified as all-cause deaths and 484 (4.9%) as cardiovascular deaths. All inflammatory markers showed certain prognostic values. Then, based on the LAASO analysis, LDH, ALP, LYM, NLR, MLR, SIRI, and RDW were included in the construction of the IPS system. The higher IPS had significantly worse long-term prognosis in Kaplan-Meier analysis (p log-rank <0.001). Also, IPS remained an independent prognosticator compared to the lowest quartile (All p for trend <0.001), and the ROC showed satisfactory values in the long-term prognosis of both cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. RCS further showed a linear association of IPS with cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality (p for non-linearity >0.05). Two different algorithms of RSF, variable importance and minimal depth, to evaluate the prognostic importance showed that IPS was the best in survival prediction. Our results highlight that a higher IPS (system integrating the inflammatory markers) was associated with the increased risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in patients with HTN, suggesting that IPS is a useful method for risk stratification in HTN.

Sarcopenia and mortality risk in community-dwelling Brazilian older adults

We estimated the impact of sarcopenia parameters on mortality risk and assessed its prevalence and associated factors in the older adults according to the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People’s 2010 (EWGSOP1) and 2018 (EWGSOP2) criteria. This was a 10-year follow-up cohort study. Low muscle mass (MM) was defined as low skeletal muscle mass index (SMI) using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and low calf circumference (CC). Cox regression and the Kaplan–Meier method were performed. The prevalence of sarcopenia and associated factors were influenced by the MM measurement method and diagnostic criteria used [6.8% (SMI and EWGSOP2), 12.8% (CC and EWGSOP2; and SMI and EWGSOP1) and 17.4% (CC and EWGSOP1)]. While a low BMI was associated with sarcopenia regardless of the sarcopenia definitions, diabetes, and high TGs were associated with sarcopenia only when using the EWGSOP1 criteria. Low SMI increased mortality risk (EWGSOP1: HR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.03–3.92; EWGSOP2: HR = 2.07, 95% CI 1.05–4.06). The prevalence of sarcopenia was higher according to EWGSOP1 than EWGSOP2. A low BMI, diabetes, and high TGs were associated with sarcopenia. A low SMI doubled the risk of mortality in community-dwelling older adults.

Effect of baseline resting heart rate on the risk of all‐cause death in Chinese patients with hypertension

The aim of this study was to investigate the association between baseline resting heart rate (RHR) and all-cause death in the China Stroke Primary Prevention Trial (CSPPT). A post hoc analysis was conducted using data from 20,648 hypertensive adults without cardiovascular disease in the CSPPT and with baseline RHR data available. Over a median follow-up duration of 4.5 years, the baseline RHR and risk for all-cause death had a nonlinear relationship. The risk of all-cause death was higher in participants with an RHR ≥85bpm (hazard ratio 1.42; 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.96, p =.031) than in those with a baseline RHR of 75-80bpm. The effect of RHR on all-cause death during the treatment period was modified by the folate level (p =.020) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) during treatment(p =.056). The effect of RHR on the risk of all-cause death was stronger when the folate level was low than when it was high; the risk was higher when the RHR was<75bpm or ≥80bpm than when it was 75-80bpm. RHR had a greater effect on the risk of all-cause death when SBP during treatment was well controlled than when it was not; again, the risk was higher when the RHR was<75bpm or ≥80bpm than when it was 75-80bpm. A higher baseline RHR resulted in an increased risk of all-cause mortality in Chinese adults with hypertension but no history of stroke or myocardial infarction.

Is impaired exercise capacity associated with higher risk of mortality in adults with congenital heart disease?

Abstract Background Impaired exercise capacity is a common finding among adults with congenital heart disease (CHD) and it has previously been reported that impaired exercise capacity is associated with higher risk of mortality, hospitalisation and/or transplantation. However, previous reports have been single centre with small sample sizes and composite endpoints. Purpose The aim of present report was to analyse the association between mortality, as primary endpoint, and aerobic exercise capacity in adults with CHD. Methods Data on exercise capacity from all registered test assessed with bicycle ergometer were retrieved from the Swedish Registry of Congenital Heart Disease. Percent of predicted peak workload (%Wpred) was calculated according to sex, age and height and compared to a national reference material (n=1790, 58% men). Results 2748 adults with CHD were included (41% women). Median age was 31.7 years (range 18–80.6 years) and mean %Wpred was 77±21.0%. At a median follow-up time of 5.3 years (range 0.02–36.5 years) 135 patients were deceased (4.9%). Moderately impaired exercise capacity (50–70% Wpred) (HR 3.0, p&amp;lt;0.001), severely impaired exercise capacity (&amp;lt;50% Wpred) (HR 9.7, p&amp;lt;0.001), NYHA class II (HR 4.4, p&amp;lt;0.001) and NYHA class III–IV (HR 12.6, p&amp;lt;0.001) was associated with increased risk of mortality in univariable cox regression. In multi-variable Cox regression exercise capacity &amp;lt;50% Wpred (HR 3.0, 95% CI [1.5–5.8], p&amp;lt;0.001), NYHA class II (HR 2.8, 95% CI [1.6–5-1], &amp;lt;0.001) and NYHA class III–IV (HR 8.0, 95% CI [4.2–15.1] p&amp;lt;0.001) was associated with higher mortality risk adjusted for sex and diagnosis. Conclusions Our findings show that exercise capacity &amp;lt;50% and NYHA class ≥II are both associated with increased risk of mortality, regardless of diagnosis. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Other. Main funding source(s): The Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation

Long-term prognostic value of trimethylamine N-oxide in community-based adults and patients with coronary heart disease

Abstract Background Trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) is an amine oxide generated by gut microbial metabolism. Emerging evidence suggests pro-atherosclerotic and pro-inflammatory properties of TMAO; however, the clinical utility of circulating TMAO in risk stratification is uncertain. Purpose We prospectively assessed relationships of plasma TMAO with long-term risk of all-cause, cardiovascular (CV) and non-CV mortality in community-dwelling adults and patients with coronary heart disease. Methods By Cox modelling, risk-associations were examined in the Hordaland Health Study (HUSK; 6393 community-based adults) and the Western Norway Coronary Angiography Cohort (WECAC; 4132 patients with suspected chronic coronary syndrome). Results Median follow-up time was 11.0 and 10.3 years in HUSK and WECAC, respectively. Following adjustments for established CV risk factors in HUSK, the HRs (95% CIs) comparing the 4th vs. 1st TMAO-quartile were 1.11 (0.88–1.40), 0.97 (0.65–1.46) and 1.17 (0.88–1.54) for all-cause, CV and non-CV mortality, respectively. Corresponding risk estimates in WECAC were 1.07 (0.86–1.32), 1.16 (0.83–1.62) and 1.02 (0.77–1.34). Similar results were observed in patients with angiographically significant coronary artery disease and patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. Conclusion Plasma TMAO was not predictive of long-term all-cause, CV or non-CV mortality in patients with or without established coronary heart disease. This large-scale study does not support a role of TMAO for patient risk stratification in primary or secondary prevention. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

WORKFORCE HEALTH AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EXPLORING THE DYNAMICS IN MORE THAN HALF A CENTURY

This study contributes to understanding the role of workforce health on output growth and convergence process in 38 high-income OECD and 58 low-income countries over a 65-year period. Empirical findings based on system GMM estimations show that (i) year gains in longevity of the younger workforce at ages from 15 to 20 have significant effects on economic growth, (ii) after age 20, the rate of convergence slightly decreases with rising age, (iii) the risk of adult mortality adversely affects output growth through the loss of human capital in productive ages and the decreases in the incentives to invest in physical capital, and (iv) the positive effects of the savings rates on growth considerably rise with rising age in OECD countries but not in low-income countries. The findings of the study provide valuable insights into the critical role that policy can play in promoting workforce health, ultimately productivity, and long-run economic growth.

Development and External Validation of a Mortality Prediction Model for Community-Dwelling Older Adults With Dementia

Estimating mortality risk in older adults with dementia is important for guiding decisions such as cancer screening, treatment of new and chronic medical conditions, and advance care planning. To develop and externally validate a mortality prediction model in community-dwelling older adults with dementia. This cohort study included community-dwelling participants (aged ≥65 years) in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) from 1998 to 2016 (derivation cohort) and National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) from 2011 to 2019 (validation cohort). Candidate predictors included demographics, behavioral/health factors, functional measures (eg, activities of daily living [ADL] and instrumental activities of daily living [IADL]), and chronic conditions. The primary outcome was time to all-cause death. We used Cox proportional hazards regression with backward selection and multiple imputation for model development. Model performance was assessed by discrimination (integrated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [iAUC]) and calibration (plots of predicted and observed mortality). Of 4267 participants with probable dementia in HRS, the mean (SD) age was 82.2 (7.6) years, 2930 (survey-weighted 69.4%) were female, and 785 (survey-weighted 12.1%) identified as Black. Median (IQR) follow-up time was 3.9 (2.0-6.8) years, and 3466 (81.2%) participants died by end of follow-up. The final model included age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, ADL dependency count, IADL difficulty count, difficulty walking several blocks, participation in vigorous physical activity, and chronic conditions (cancer, heart disease, diabetes, lung disease). The optimism-corrected iAUC after bootstrap internal validation was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75-0.76) with time-specific AUC of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.70-0.75) at 1 year, 0.75 (95% CI, 0.73-0.77) at 5 years, and 0.84 (95% CI, 0.82-0.85) at 10 years. On external validation in NHATS (n = 2404), AUC was 0.73 (95% CI, 0.70-0.76) at 1 year and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.71-0.76) at 5 years. Calibration plots suggested good calibration across the range of predicted risk from 1 to 10 years. We developed and externally validated a mortality prediction model in community-dwelling older adults with dementia that showed good discrimination and calibration. The mortality risk estimates may help guide discussions regarding treatment decisions and advance care planning.

Dynapenia in all-cause mortality and its relationship with sedentary behavior in community-dwelling older adults

The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship of dynapenia combined with sedentary behavior (SB) on the risk of mortality in older adults living in a Brazilian community. A total of 322 participants aged ≥ 60 years from the ELSIA (Longitudinal Study of Elderly Health in Alcobaça) prospective cohort were included. Dynapenia was diagnosed when the handgrip strength was < 27 ​kg for men and < 16 ​kg for women. The exposure time to SB was assessed considering the total time spent sitting during one day in the week and one day on the weekend. When combined with dynapenia, we derived the construction of four groups: best behavior (absence of dynapenia and low SB), intermediate behavior (absence of dynapenia and high SB; presence of dynapenia and low SB) and worst behavior (presence of dynapenia and high SB). Mortality was assessed by the follow-up time until death and/or censorship. During the 5-year follow-up of the study, 55 participants progressed to death. In the adjusted models, the dynapenia and the time spent exposed to SB were analyzed in a combined way, the older adults with worse behavior (high SB and dynapenia) had higher risk ratios for mortality (hazard ratio 2.46; 95% confidence interval 1.01–5.97) than the best behavior group. Older adults with dynapenia are at greater risk for all-cause mortality, which is aggravated by the addition of longer exposure to SB.

The Combined Effects of Dietary Diversity and Frailty on Mortality in Older Taiwanese People.

Objective: To assess the prospective association between frailty and dietary diversity on mortality. Method: This prospective cohort study used the 2005–2008 Nutrition and Health Survey in Taiwan (N = 330; age ≥ 65 years) and this was linked to the Death Registry where we used the data that was recorded up to 31 January 2020. Dietary intake information was assessed using a 24-h dietary recall and food-frequency questionnaire, which were calculated a dietary diversity score (DDS; range, 0–6) and food consumption frequency. Assessment of frailty phenotypes was based on FRAIL scale which was proposed by the International Academy on Nutrition and Aging. Results: Frail older adults had a higher risk of all-cause mortality when they were compared to those with robust physiologies (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.73, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.13–6.52). Frailty and a lower DDS were associated with a higher risk of mortality (joint adjusted HR: 2.30, 95% CI: 1.11–4.75) which, compared with a robust physiology and higher DDS, were associated with a lower risk of mortality. Conclusions: Frailty and a lower DDS were associated with a higher mortality. Prefrailty and frailty with a higher DDS were associated with a lower risk of mortality when compared with those with prefrailty and frailty and a lower DDS. These results suggest that eating a wide variety of foods might reduce the risk of mortality in older adults with prefrailty and frailty.

Serum Cystatin-C is linked to increased prevalence of diabetes and higher risk of mortality in diverse middle-aged and older adults.

Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (henceforth diabetes) affects roughly 35 million individuals in the US and is a major risk factor for cardiovascular and kidney disease. Serum Cystatin-C is used to monitor renal function and detect kidney damage. Recent research has focused on linking Cystatin-C to cardiovascular risk and disease, but most findings focus on small sample sizes and generalize poorly to diverse populations, thus limiting epidemiological inferences. The aim of this manuscript is to study the association between Cystatin-C, diabetes, and mortality and test for possible sex or racial/ethnic background modifications in these relationships. We analyzed 8-years of biennial panel data from Health and Retirement Study participants 50-years and older who self-identified as White (unweighted N (uN) = 5,595), Black (uN = 867), or Latino (uN = 565) for a total of uN = 7,027 individuals. We modeled diabetes and death over 8-years as function of baseline Cystatin-C (log transformed) adjusting for covariates and tested modifications in associations by race/ethnic background and sex. Mean log Cystatin-C at visit 1 was 0.03±0.32 standard deviation. A 10% increase in Cystatin-C levels was associated with 13% increased relative risk of diabetes at baseline (11% and 9% by years 4 and 8). A 10% increase in Cystatin-C was highly associated with increased relative risk of death (28% and 31% by years 4 and 8). These associations were present even after adjusting for possible confounders and were not modified by sex or racial/ethnic background. Despite differential risks for diabetes and mortality by racial/ethnic groups, Cystatin-C was equally predictive of these outcomes across groups. Cystatin-C dysregulations could be used as a risk indicator for diabetes and as a warning sign for accelerated risk of mortality.

Blood-Based Fingerprint of Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Long-Term Health Outcomes in Young Adulthood.

Background Cardiorespiratory fitness is a powerful predictor of health outcomes that is currently underused in primary prevention, especially in young adults. We sought to develop a blood-based biomarker of cardiorespiratory fitness that is easily translatable across populations. Methods and Results Maximal effort cardiopulmonary exercise testing for quantification of cardiorespiratory fitness (by peak oxygen uptake) and profiling of >200 metabolites at rest were performed in the FHS (Framingham Heart Study; 2016-2019). A metabolomic fitness score was derived/validated in the FHS and was associated with long-term outcomes in the younger CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) study. In the FHS (derivation, N=451; validation, N=914; age 54±8 years, 53% women, body mass index 27.7±5.3 kg/m2), we used LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regression to develop a multimetabolite score to predict peak oxygen uptake (correlation with peak oxygen uptake r=0.77 in derivation, 0.61 in validation; both P<0.0001). In a linear model including clinical risk factors, a ≈1-SD higher metabolomic fitness score had equivalent magnitude of association with peak oxygen uptake as a 9.2-year age increment. In the CARDIA study (N=2300, median follow-up 26.9 years, age 32±4 years, 44% women, 44% Black individuals), a 1-SD higher metabolomic fitness score was associated with a 44% lower risk for mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.56 [95% CI, 0.47-0.68]; P<0.0001) and 32% lower risk for cardiovascular disease (HR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.55-0.84]; P=0.0003) in models adjusted for age, sex, and race, which remained robust with adjustment for clinical risk factors. Conclusions A blood-based biomarker of cardiorespiratory fitness largely independent of traditional risk factors is associated with long-term risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality in young adults.