Adjustment Time Scale Research Articles

On simple representations of the climate response to external radiative forcing

Global warming in response to external radiative forcing is determined by the feedback of the climate system. Recent studies have suggested that simple mathematical models incorporating a radiative response which is related to upper- and deep-ocean disequilibrium (ocean heat uptake efficacy), inhomogeneous patterns of surface warming and radiative feedbacks (pattern effect), or an explicit dependence of the strength of radiative feedbacks on surface temperature change (feedback temperature dependence) may explain the climate response in atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation models (AOGCMs) or can be useful for interpreting the instrumental record. We analyze a two-layer model with an ocean heat transport efficacy, a two-region model with region specific heat capacities and radiative responses; a one-layer model with a temperature dependent feedback; and a model which combines elements of the two-layer/region models and the state-dependent feedback parameter. We show that, from the perspective of the globally averaged surface temperature and radiative imbalance, the two-region and two-layer models are equivalent. State-dependence of the feedback parameter introduces a nonlinearity in the system which makes the adjustment timescales forcing-dependent. Neither the linear two-region/layer models, nor the state-dependent feedback model adequately describes the behavior of complex climate models. The model which combines elements of both can adequately describe the response of more comprehensive models but may require more experimental input than is available from single forcing realizations.

Laboratory Investigation on Effects of Flood Intermittency on Fan Delta Dynamics

AbstractTo simplify the complex hydrological variability of flow conditions, experiments on delta evolution are often conducted using a representative channel‐forming flood flow and results are related to field settings using an intermittency factor, defined as the fraction of time in flood. Although this factor provides an approximation of dominant flow conditions and makes modeling deltas easier by turning their complex hydraulics into a single representative value, little is known about how this generalization affects delta processes. We conducted experiments with periodic flow conditions to determine the effects of intermittent discharges on fan deltas. For each run, the magnitude of floods was held constant, but the duration changed, thus varying the intermittency factor, between 1 and 0.2. Floods consisted of higher water and sediment discharge, while base flow periods had lower water discharge and sediment input ceased, causing the system to become erosional during these periods. We find that as the duration of floods decreases, the delta topset is larger in area with a shallower slope due to reworking on the topset during base flow conditions. During base flows, the experimental system adjusts toward a new equilibrium state that in turn acts as the initial condition for subsequent flood periods. These results suggest that the adjustment timescale is a factor in determining the behavior of deltas and their channels. We conclude that both periods of flood when most of the sediment is supplied to the system and periods of base flow when topset sediment is reworked contribute to delta dynamics.

The Effect of Internal Variability on Ocean Temperature Adjustment in a Low‐Resolution CESM Initial Condition Ensemble

AbstractDue to its large heat capacity and circulation, the ocean contributes significantly to global heat uptake, global heat transport, spatial temperature patterns, and variability. Quantifying ocean heat uptake across different temporal and spatial scales is important to quantify Earth's climate response to anthropogenic warming. Here we evaluate ocean adjustment time scales from two different fully coupled climate model ensembles using the Community Earth System Model. Both ensembles use the same model version, anthropogenic and natural forcings, and coupling configurations, but we initialize the ensembles in two different ways: (1) sampling joint internal variability of the ocean–atmosphere system (unique atmosphere and ocean conditions) and (2) sampling the internal variability of the atmosphere only (unique atmosphere, identical ocean conditions). Uncertainty due to internal variability is used as a proxy to quantify the time scales of ocean temperature adjustment at different depths and basins in Community Earth System Model. Time scales of equilibration are longer in the deep ocean than the upper ocean, highlighting the vertical structure of dynamic adjustment. The Atlantic equilibrates on shorter time scales (82 years above 1,000 m, 140 years below 1,000 m) relative to the Pacific (106 years above 1,000 m, 444 years below 1,000 m) in Community Earth System Model due to the large North Atlantic Deep Water formation and strong overturning circulation in the Atlantic. These results have broad implications for analyzing internal climate variability, ocean adjustment, and drift in global coupled model experiments and intercomparisons.

Product vs. process? The role of geomorphology in wetland characterization

Wetland classification has become a primary tool to characterize and inventory wetland landscapes, but wetlands are difficult to classify because they straddle the terrestrial and aquatic boundary and occur in a variety of hydroclimatic and topographic settings. Presently, many ecological wetland classification schemes are focused on the ‘hydrogeomorphic’ unit, which attempts to account for the physical setting of a wetland. In many cases topographic terms (e.g. flats, slopes) rather than geomorphological terms (e.g. oxbow, floodplain) are used to characterize landforms, and little attempt is made to characterize the process-landform relationships within wetland landscapes. The current misrepresentation of product geomorphology (i.e. topographic rather than landform description) and underrepresentation of process geomorphology (i.e. lacking process-landform relationships) means that many current wetland classification schemes represent an incomplete and static attempt to characterize geomorphologically dynamic wetland landscapes. Here, we use examples from wetlands in the drylands of Africa, Australia, and North America to identify the capacity for adjustment (i.e. form and timescale of adjustment) of wetland landforms and we relate this capacity to the geomorphological concepts of sediment connectivity and landform sensitivity. We highlight how geomorphological insights into process-landform relationships and timescales of landform adjustment can add value to wetland classification efforts, with important implications for wetland management and ecosystem service delivery. We submit that geomorphology has a much larger role to play in wetland characterization and can enhance existing wetland classification schemes. More participation by the geomorphology community in wetland science and more awareness by the ecology community in recognizing and characterizing wetlands as dynamic landscapes will facilitate more effective wetland research and management.

Changes in the MJO under greenhouse gas-induced warming in CMIP5 models.

This study investigates changes to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in response to greenhouse-gas induced warming during the 21st century. Changes in the MJO's amplitude, phase speed, and zonal scale are examined in five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models that demonstrate superior MJO characteristics. Under warming, the CMIP5 models exhibit a robust increase in the spectral power of planetary-scale, intraseasonal, eastward-propagating (MJO) precipitation anomalies (~10.9 %K-1). The amplification of MJO variability is accompanied by an increase of the spectral power of the corresponding westward traveling waves at a similar rate. This suggests that enhanced MJO variability in a warmer climate is likely caused by enhanced background tropical precipitation variability, not by changes in the MJO's stability. All models examined show an increase in the MJO's phase speed (1.8 - 4.5 %K-1) and a decrease in the MJO's zonal wavenumber (1.0 - 3.8 %K-1). Using a linear moisture mode framework, this study tests the theory-predicted phase speed changes against the simulated phase speed changes. It is found that the MJO's acceleration in a warmer climate is a result of enhanced horizontal moisture advection by the steepening of the mean meridional moisture gradient and the decrease in zonal wavenumber, which is partially offset by the lengthening of the convective moisture adjustment timescale and the increase in gross dry stability. While the ability of the linear moisture mode framework to explain MJO phase speed changes is model dependent, the theory can accurately predict the phase speed changes in the model ensemble.

Tracing the Imprint of River Runoff Variability on Arctic Water Mass Transformation

AbstractThe Arctic Ocean receives a net freshwater input from land and from the atmosphere. This flux of freshwater, along with net surface heat loss, acts to transform the water mass properties of inflowing Atlantic and Pacific waters. In this study, model simulations are used to quantify the Arctic water mass transformation in salinity and temperature space, and its explained variance due to variability in the largest freshwater source to the Arctic: river runoff. This explained variance is quantified using a novel tool, the seasonal climate response function, which describes the magnitude and time scale of adjustment to a runoff perturbation at monthly resolution. Using this method, the transient response of Arctic water mass transformation is reconstructed over time scales ranging from several months to a decade. Model simulations with variable runoff indicate a significant explained model variance of several terms contributing to salinity transformation, including diffusion, the formation and melt of sea ice, and a possibly model‐dependent surface salinity‐restoring term. Most notably, an increase in river runoff strengthens the diffusion of salt and heat, which ultimately leads to an increase in the advective salt and heat import into the Arctic. These results provide evidence for the potential predictability of the Arctic system based on variability in river runoff.

The Dynamics of Shelf Forcing in Greenlandic Fjords

AbstractThe fjords that connect Greenland’s glaciers to the ocean are gateways for importing heat to melt ice and for exporting meltwater into the ocean. The transport of heat and meltwater can be modulated by various drivers of fjord circulation, including freshwater, local winds, and shelf variability. Shelf-forced flows (also known as the intermediary circulation) are the dominant mode of variability in two major fjords of east Greenland, but we lack a dynamical understanding of the fjord’s response to shelf forcing. Building on observations from east Greenland, we use numerical simulations and analytical models to explore the dynamics of shelf-driven flows. For the parameter space of Greenlandic fjords, we find that the fjord’s response is primarily a function of three nondimensional parameters: the fjord width over the deformation radius (W/Rd), the forcing time scale over the fjord adjustment time scale, and the forcing amplitude (shelf pycnocline displacements) over the upper-layer thickness. The shelf-forced flows in both the numerical simulations and the observations can largely be explained by a simple analytical model for Kelvin waves propagating around the fjord. For fjords with W/Rd > 0.5 (most Greenlandic fjords), 3D dynamics are integral to understanding shelf forcing—the fjord dynamics cannot be approximated with 2D models that neglect cross-fjord structure. The volume flux exchanged between the fjord and shelf increases for narrow fjords and peaks around the resonant forcing frequency, dropping off significantly at higher- and lower-frequency forcing.

Precipitation Partitioning in Multiscale Atmospheric Simulations: Impacts of Stability Restoration Methods

AbstractProper simulation of high‐resolution surface precipitation distribution and variability is important to local aspects of environmental pollution and climate. Global and regional climate and weather models routinely evaluate total precipitation using available measurements, but quantitative evaluation of contributions by the individual components (convective and nonconvective) to the total precipitation is not routinely performed. Wet bias in one component can alleviate dry bias in the other component, making the total precipitation look comparable to measurements, leading to an invisible bias. To study this aspect, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) measurements for precipitation components were used to quantitatively evaluate convective fractions simulated by a cumulus parameterization scheme in a regional climate simulation using 12‐km grid spacing. Results indicated a wet bias in convective precipitation as compared to TRMM measurements. This wet bias helped to counter a dry bias in grid‐scale precipitation and led to a total precipitation comparable to Parameter‐elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model and TRMM measurements. A new formulation has been developed for convective cloud adjustment time scale alleviating wet bias in convective precipitation when compared to the old formulation and TRMM measurements. Results for different grid spacing also indicate that the new method produces lower subgrid‐scale precipitation with overall better precipitation estimates. Our results also suggest that evaluating both components of the surface precipitation rather than just the total itself can inform a need to improve cloud formulations, as demonstrated in this study. This study calls for the development of methods to routinely produce measurements for precipitation components that help evaluating global and regional climate and weather models.

A theoretical model of strong and moderate El Niño regimes

The existence of two regimes for El Nino (EN) events, moderate and strong, has been previously shown in the GFDL CM2.1 climate model and also suggested in observations. The two regimes have been proposed to originate from the nonlinearity in the Bjerknes feedback, associated with a threshold in sea surface temperature ( $$T_c$$ ) that needs to be exceeded for deep atmospheric convection to occur in the eastern Pacific. However, although the recent 2015–16 EN event provides a new data point consistent with the sparse strong EN regime, it is not enough to statistically reject the null hypothesis of a unimodal distribution based on observations alone. Nevertheless, we consider the possibility suggestive enough to explore it with a simple theoretical model based on the nonlinear Bjerknes feedback. In this study, we implemented this nonlinear mechanism in the recharge-discharge (RD) ENSO model and show that it is sufficient to produce the two EN regimes, i.e. a bimodal distribution in peak surface temperature (T) during EN events. The only modification introduced to the original RD model is that the net damping is suppressed when T exceeds $$T_c$$ , resulting in a weak nonlinearity in the system. Due to the damping, the model is globally stable and it requires stochastic forcing to maintain the variability. The sustained low-frequency component of the stochastic forcing plays a key role for the onset of strong EN events (i.e. for $$T>T_c$$ ), at least as important as the precursor positive heat content anomaly (h). High-frequency forcing helps some EN events to exceed $$T_c$$ , increasing the number of strong events, but the rectification effect is small and the overall number of EN events is little affected by this forcing. Using the Fokker–Planck equation, we show how the bimodal probability distribution of EN events arises from the nonlinear Bjerknes feedback and also propose that the increase in the net feedback with increasing T is a necessary condition for bimodality in the RD model. We also show that the damping strength determines both the adjustment time-scale and equilibrium value of the ensemble spread associated with the stochastic forcing.

Characterization of Moist Processes Associated With Changes in the Propagation of the MJO With Increasing CO2.

The processes that lead to changes in the propagation and maintenance of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) as a response to increasing CO2 are examined by analyzing moist static energy budget of the MJO in a series of NASA GISS model simulations. It is found changes in MJO propagation is dominated by several key processes. Horizontal moisture advection, a key process for MJO propagation, is found to enhance predominantly due to an increase in the mean horizontal moisture gradients. The terms that determine the strength of the advecting wind anomalies, the MJO horizontal scale and the dry static stability, are found to exhibit opposing trends that largely cancel out. Furthermore, reduced sensitivity of precipitation to changes in column moisture, i.e., a lengthening in the convective moisture adjustment time scale, also opposes enhanced propagation. The dispersion relationship of Adames and Kim, which accounts for all these processes, predicts an acceleration of the MJO at a rate of ∼3.5% K−1, which is consistent with the actual phase speed changes in the simulation. For the processes that contribute to MJO maintenance, it is found that damping by vertical MSE advection is reduced due to the increasing vertical moisture gradient. This weaker damping is nearly canceled by weaker maintenance by cloud‐radiative feedbacks, yielding the growth rate from the linear moisture mode theory nearly unchanged with the warming. Furthermore, the estimated growth rates are found to be a small, negative values, suggesting that the MJO in the simulation is a weakly damped mode.

Updates in the NCEP GFS Cumulus Convection Schemes with Scale and Aerosol Awareness

Abstract The current operational NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) cumulus convection schemes are updated with a scale-aware parameterization where the cloud mass flux decreases with increasing grid resolution. The ratio of advective time to convective turnover time is also taken into account for the scale-aware parameterization. In addition, the present deep cumulus convection closure using the quasi-equilibrium assumption is no longer used for grid sizes smaller than a threshold value. For the shallow cumulus convection scheme, the cloud-base mass flux is modified to be given by a function of mean updraft velocity. A simple aerosol-aware parameterization where rain conversion in the convective updraft is modified by aerosol number concentration is also included in the update. Along with the scale- and aerosol-aware parameterizations, more changes are made to the schemes. The cloud-base mass-flux computation in the deep convection scheme is modified to use convective turnover time as the convective adjustment time scale. The rain conversion rate is modified to decrease with decreasing air temperature above the freezing level. Convective inhibition in the subcloud layer is used as an additional trigger condition. Convective cloudiness is enhanced by considering suspended cloud condensate in the updraft. The lateral entrainment in the deep convection scheme is also enhanced to more strongly suppress convection in a drier environment. The updated NCEP GFS cumulus convection schemes display significant improvements especially in the summertime continental U.S. precipitation forecasts.

Are equilibrium multichannel networks predictable? The case of the regulated Indus River, Pakistan

Arguably, the current planform behaviour of the Indus River is broadly predictable. Between Chashma and Taunsa, Pakistan, the Indus is a 264-km-long multiple-channel reach. Remote sensing imagery, encompassing major floods in 2007 and 2010, shows that the Indus has a minimum of two and a maximum of nine channels, with on average four active channels during the dry season and five during the annual monsoon. Thus, the network structure, if not detailed planform, remains stable even for the record 2010 flood (27,100m3s−1; recurrence interval>100years). Bankline recession is negligible for discharges less than a peak annual discharge of 6000m3s−1 (~80% of mean annual flood). The Maximum Flow Efficiency (MFE) principle demonstrates that the channel network is insensitive to the monsoon floods, which typically peak at 13,200m3s−1. Rather, the network is in near-equilibrium with the mean annual flood (7530m3s−1). The MFE principle indicates that stable networks have three to four channels, thus the observed stability in the number of active channels accords with the presence of a near-equilibrium reach-scale channel network. Insensitivity to the annual hydrological cycle demonstrates that the timescale for network adjustment is much longer than the timescale of the monsoon hydrograph, with the annual excess water being stored on floodplains rather than being conveyed in an enlarged channel network. The analysis explains the lack of significant channel adjustment following the largest flood in 40years and the extensive Indus flooding experienced on an annual basis, with its substantial impacts on the populace and agricultural production.

Complex coastlines responding to climate change: do shoreline shapes reflect present forcing or “remember” the distant past?

Abstract. A range of planform morphologies emerge along sandy coastlines as a function of offshore wave climate. It has been implicitly assumed that the morphological response time is rapid compared to the timescales of wave climate change, meaning that coastal morphologies simply reflect the extant wave climate. This assumption has been explored by focussing on the response of two distinctive morphological coastlines – flying spits and cuspate capes – to changing wave climates, using a coastline evolution model. Results indicate that antecedent conditions are important in determining the evolution of morphologies, and that sandy coastlines can demonstrate hysteresis behaviour. In particular, antecedent morphology is particularly important in the evolution of flying spits, with characteristic timescales of morphological adjustment on the order of centuries for large spits. Characteristic timescales vary with the square of aspect ratios of capes and spits; for spits, these timescales are an order of magnitude longer than for capes (centuries vs. decades). When wave climates change more slowly than the relevant characteristic timescales, coastlines are able to adjust in a quasi-equilibrium manner. Our results have important implications for the management of sandy coastlines where decisions may be implicitly and incorrectly based on the assumption that present-day coastlines are in equilibrium with current conditions.

Rock glaciers on the run – understanding rock glacier landform evolution and recent changes from numerical flow modeling

Abstract. Rock glaciers are landforms that form as a result of creeping mountain permafrost which have received considerable attention concerning their dynamical and thermal changes. Observed changes in rock glacier motion on seasonal to decadal timescales have been linked to ground temperature variations and related changes in landform geometries interpreted as signs of degradation due to climate warming. Despite the extensive kinematic and thermal monitoring of these creeping permafrost landforms, our understanding of the controlling factors remains limited and lacks robust quantitative models of rock glacier evolution in relation to their environmental setting. Here, we use a holistic approach to analyze the current and long-term dynamical development of two rock glaciers in the Swiss Alps. Site-specific sedimentation and ice generation rates are linked with an adapted numerical flow model for rock glaciers that couples the process chain from material deposition to rock glacier flow in order to reproduce observed rock glacier geometries and their general dynamics. Modeling experiments exploring the impact of variations in rock glacier temperature and sediment–ice supply show that these forcing processes are not sufficient to explain the currently observed short-term geometrical changes derived from multitemporal digital terrain models at the two different rock glaciers. The modeling also shows that rock glacier thickness is dominantly controlled by slope and rheology while the advance rates are mostly constrained by rates of sediment–ice supply. Furthermore, timescales of dynamical adjustment are found to be strongly linked to creep velocity. Overall, we provide a useful modeling framework for a better understanding of the dynamical response and morphological changes of rock glaciers to changes in external forcing.

Convective moisture adjustment time scale as a key factor in regulating model amplitude of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation

AbstractDespite its pronounced impacts on weather extremes worldwide, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains poorly represented in climate models. Here we present findings that point to some necessary ingredients to produce a strong MJO amplitude in a large set of model simulations from a recent model intercomparison project. While surface flux and radiative heating anomalies are considered important for amplifying the MJO, their strength per unit MJO precipitation anomaly is found to be negatively correlated to MJO amplitude across these multimodel simulations. However, model MJO amplitude is found to be closely tied to a model's convective moisture adjustment time scale, a measure of how rapidly precipitation must increase to remove excess column water vapor, or alternately the efficiency of surface precipitation generation per unit column water vapor anomaly. These findings provide critical insights into key model processes for the MJO and pinpoint a direction for improved model representation of the MJO.

FORMATION OF MASSIVE PRIMORDIAL STARS: INTERMITTENT UV FEEDBACK WITH EPISODIC MASS ACCRETION

ABSTRACT We present coupled stellar evolution (SE) and 3D radiation-hydrodynamic (RHD) simulations of the evolution of primordial protostars, their immediate environment, and the dynamic accretion history under the influence of stellar ionizing and dissociating UV feedback. Our coupled SE RHD calculations result in a wide diversity of final stellar masses covering 10 ≲ M * ≲ 103 . The formation of very massive (≳250 ) stars is possible under weak UV feedback, whereas ordinary massive (a few ×10 ) stars form when UV feedback can efficiently halt the accretion. This may explain the peculiar abundance pattern of a Galactic metal-poor star recently reported by Aoki et al., possibly the observational signature of very massive precursor primordial stars. Weak UV feedback occurs in cases of variable accretion, in particular when repeated short accretion bursts temporarily exceed 0.01 , causing the protostar to inflate. In the bloated state, the protostar has low surface temperature and UV feedback is suppressed until the star eventually contracts, on a thermal adjustment timescale, to create an H ii region. If the delay time between successive accretion bursts is sufficiently short, the protostar remains bloated for extended periods, initiating at most only short periods of UV feedback. Disk fragmentation does not necessarily reduce the final stellar mass. Quite the contrary, we find that disk fragmentation enhances episodic accretion as many fragments migrate inward and are accreted onto the star, thus allowing continued stellar mass growth under conditions of intermittent UV feedback. This trend becomes more prominent as we improve the resolution of our simulations. We argue that simulations with significantly higher resolution than reported previously are needed to derive accurate gas mass accretion rates onto primordial protostars.

Noble gas tracers of ventilation during deep-water formation in the Weddell Sea

To explore the dynamics and implications of incomplete air-sea equilibration during the formation of abyssal water masses, we simulated noble gases in the Estimating the Circulation & Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) global ocean state estimate. A novel computation approach utilizing a matrix-free Newton-Krylov (MFNK) scheme was applied to quickly compute the periodic seasonal solutions for noble gas tracers. MFNK allows for quick computation of a cyclo-stationary solution for tracers (i.e., a spun-up, repeating seasonal cycle), which would otherwise be computationally infeasible due to the long time scale of dynamic adjustment of the abyssal ocean (1000’s of years). A suite of experiments isolates individual processes, including atmospheric pressure effects, the solubility pump and air-sea bubble fluxes. In addition to these modeled processes, a volumetric contribution of 0.28 ± 0.07% of glacial melt water is required to reconcile deep-water observations in the Weddell Sea. Another primary finding of our work is that the saturation anomaly of heavy noble gases in model simulations is in excess of two-fold more negative than is suggested from Weddell Sea observations. This result suggests that model water masses are insufficiently ventilated prior to subduction and thus there is insufficient communication between atmosphere and ocean at high latitudes. The discrepancy between noble gas observations and ECCO simulations highlights that important inadequacies remain in how we model high-latitude ventilation with large implications for the oceanic uptake and storage of carbon.

Characterisation of convective regimes over the British Isles

Convection‐permitting modelling has led to a step change in forecasting convective events. However, convection occurs within different regimes which exhibit different forecast behaviour. A convective adjustment timescale can be used to distinguish between these regimes and examine their associated predictability. The convective adjustment timescale is calculated from radiosonde ascents and found to be consistent with that derived from convection‐permitting model forecasts. The model‐derived convective adjustment timescale is then examined for three summers in the British Isles to determine characteristics of the convective regimes for this maritime region. Convection in the British Isles is predominantly in convective quasi‐equilibrium, with 85% of convection having a timescale less than or equal to 3 h. This percentage varies spatially with more non‐equilibrium events occurring in the south and southwest. The convective adjustment timescale exhibits a diurnal cycle over land. The non‐equilibrium regime occurs more frequently at mid‐range wind speeds and with winds from southerly to westerly sectors. Most non‐equilibrium convective events in the British Isles are initiated near large coastal orographic gradients or on the European continent. Thus, the convective adjustment timescale is greatest when the location being examined is immediately downstream of large orographic gradients and decreases with distance from the convective initiation region. The dominance of convective quasi‐equilibrium conditions over the British Isles argues for the use of large‐member ensembles in probabilistic forecasts for this region.

Improving High-Resolution Weather Forecasts Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with an Updated Kain–Fritsch Scheme

Abstract Efforts to improve the prediction accuracy of high-resolution (1–10 km) surface precipitation distribution and variability are of vital importance to local aspects of air pollution, wet deposition, and regional climate. However, precipitation biases and errors can occur at these spatial scales due to uncertainties in initial meteorological conditions and/or grid-scale cloud microphysics schemes. In particular, it is still unclear to what extent a subgrid-scale convection scheme could be modified to bring in scale awareness for improving high-resolution short-term precipitation forecasts in the WRF Model. To address these issues, the authors introduced scale-aware parameterized cloud dynamics for high-resolution forecasts by making several changes to the Kain–Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme in the WRF Model. These changes include subgrid-scale cloud–radiation interactions, a dynamic adjustment time scale, impacts of cloud updraft mass fluxes on grid-scale vertical velocity, and lifting condensation level–based entrainment methodology that includes scale dependency. A series of 48-h retrospective forecasts using a combination of three treatments of convection (KF, updated KF, and the use of no cumulus parameterization), two cloud microphysics schemes, and two types of initial condition datasets were performed over the U.S. southern Great Plains on 9- and 3-km grid spacings during the summers of 2002 and 2010. Results indicate that 1) the source of initial conditions plays a key role in high-resolution precipitation forecasting, and 2) the authors’ updated KF scheme greatly alleviates the excessive precipitation at 9-km grid spacing and improves results at 3-km grid spacing as well. Overall, the study found that the updated KF scheme incorporated into a high-resolution model does provide better forecasts for precipitation location and intensity.

Temporal evolution of the momentum balance terms and frictional adjustment observed over the inner shelf during a storm

Abstract. We investigate the rapidly changing equilibrium between the momentum sources and sinks during the passage of a single two-peak storm over the Catalan inner shelf (NW Mediterranean Sea). Velocity measurements at 24 m water depth are taken as representative of the inner shelf, and the cross-shelf variability is explored with measurements at 50 m water depth. During both wind pulses, the flow accelerated at 24 m until shortly after the wind maxima, when the bottom stress was able to compensate for the wind stress. Concurrently, the sea level also responded, with the pressure-gradient force opposing the wind stress. Before, during and after the second wind pulse, there were velocity fluctuations with both super- and sub-inertial periods likely associated with transient coastal waves. Throughout the storm, the Coriolis force and wave radiation stresses were relatively unimportant in the along-shelf momentum balance. The frictional adjustment timescale was around 10 h, consistent with the e-folding time obtained from bottom drag parameterizations. The momentum evolution at 50 m showed a larger influence of the Coriolis force at the expense of a decreased frictional relevance, typical in the transition from the inner to the mid-shelf.