Additional Votes Research Articles

ВЛИЯНИЕ ДЭГ НА ЯВКУ ИЗБИРАТЕЛЕЙ НА ВЫБОРАХ В РОССИИ В 2021–2023 ГГ.

Remote electronic voting, also known as i-voting, transforms elections in Russia and worldwide, opening up new opportunities for the state and society to move from agent-object to subject-to-subject relations. However, the impact of i-voting on political processes, especially at the regional level, is yet to be studied by social sciences. The author analyzed the effect of remote electronic voting on voter turnout at the federal and regional elections in Russia in 2021–2023 and compared them with the turnout that involved traditional means of voting. The cross-regional and cross-temporal analysis of electoral statistics partially proved that remote electronic voting as an additional voting channel increased voter turnout at the federal level. The Russian electronic voting network appeared to be an efficient state operator in 2021–2023. However, the increase in voter turnout was lower in the regions. If subjected to strict public control, remote electronic voting can justifiably considered as an effective form of conventional political participation.

Building bridges for consensus via alternative voting methods

The study examines the impact of D21, an alternative voting method, on voter polarization using data from President 21 (P21), an online election game, conducted during the 2018 Presidential election in the Czech Republic. Contrary to the actual election outcome, characterized by extreme voter polarization, the P21 outcome under D21 produced cross-ideological consensus among the voters. D21 allows voters to express not only preferences by casting plus votes but also a disapproval by giving a minus vote. Unlike the actual election outcome, P21 data demonstrates voters’ tendencies to cast additional votes for candidates from opposite political spectra, while not using minus votes in retaliatory fashion. These tendencies appeared to be linked to voters’ issue positions and perceptions of the moral leadership qualities of the running candidates rather than their ideological and political affiliations.

Wählen mit Kübeln und Kaskaden: Wie sich das Personenstimmen- paradox bei Wahlen in Bremen, Hamburg und Niedersachsen auf einfache Weise vermeiden lässt

In state elections in Bremen and Hamburg and local elections in Lower Saxony, voters have the opportunity to vote directly for one or more candidates or to confirm the order of the lists proposed by the parties . The ratio of votes cast for the candidates and the list deter- mines how many seats are filled according to the order of the list and how many seats are filled according to the order of the votes cast for the candidates . It may be the case that an additional vote for a candidate leads to him not receiving a seat at all . This phenomenon, which is reminiscent of the negative weight of votes in Bundestag elections, is a nuisance from the point of view of democratic theory because it violates the fundamental require- ment that a vote for a candidate always leads to an increase in his chances of getting elected . Probst and Schröder speak of the personal vote paradox or external-utilization paradox . The aim of this article is to present three simple procedures that avoid the personal vote paradox without fundamentally changing the logic of the current electoral system . The effects of the proposed procedures are illustrated using the election results of the Bremen state election in 2023 . [

When populists deliver on their promises: the electoral effects of a large cash transfer programme in Poland

AbstractWe estimate the effects of the introduction of a large cash transfer programme on support for the ruling populist party in Poland. We exploit the variation at the municipal level in the annual cash transfer amount received per capita, and use a difference‐in‐differences research design to study the electoral effects of the transfer. Our results show that a cash transfer amount of $100 per capita translated into an increase in the vote share for the ruling party of nearly two percentage points. One‐third of additional votes came from new voters coming off the sidelines, and the remaining electoral gains were due to voters who had previously voted for other parties. The effects of the programme are persistent, as we see no decrease in the magnitude of effects seven years after the introduction.

Можно ли обеспечить в условиях демократии правление «лучших»?

The article analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of democracy. Its various types and evaluations are considered. The main question that the author asks is whether democracy ensures the rule of the “best.” Such a formulation of the question is due to the fact that from the moment of its inception to the present, the idea of democracy has been associated with the hope for a “better” state administration, for the “best” representatives of society to come to power. At the same time, democracy is criticized for the lack of aristocracy, professionalism and efficiency of decisions made. An analysis is made of the proposals of various researchers on the introduction of legal levers to increase the level of aristocracy in a democratic government, including initiatives to introduce educational or property qualifications in elections, quotas for intellectual professions in parliament, professional representation, etc. The legal practice of some countries on the use of legal techniques to enhance the elitism of representation in parliaments (electoral colleges, partial appointment of members of the upper houses of parliaments, provision of additional votes in elections to certain categories of citizens) is considered. However, the conclusion is made about the inappropriateness of such novels; the opinion is motivated about the exceptional value of the openness of the democratic system, its ability to provide a potential opportunity for every citizen to participate in political decision-making. The subjectivity of the additional requirements for the elective body proposed for implementation is noted: they conflict with the idea of human dignity, which is the main achievement in the development of world history. It is suggested that socioprofessional representation, although it is able to increase the number of channels for interaction between the state and civil society, still carries the danger of excessive pressure from corporations on its members, and can lead to excessive classness in society. Special attention is paid to the modern interpretation of popular sovereignty as a legal phenomenon that manifests itself in the course of a complex discourse, the process of finding a compromise. In this regard, hopes are pinned on minimizing the risks of “not the best” people coming to power democratically and implementing their “not the best” policy on the system of separation of powers, on the “discourse” of these authorities. The idea of foreign authors about the possibility of democracy to “defend”, including from unreasonable restrictions on the electoral right (the concept of “militant democracy”) is supported.

Secretary's Report, 2022 : American Society of Naturalists.

Secretary's Report, 2022 : American Society of Naturalists.

Large-Scale Evidence for the Effectiveness of Partisan GOTV Robo Calls

AbstractWe document the effectiveness of automated (robo) calls for increasing voter participation in contrast to most published research which finds little or no effect from automated calls. We establish this finding in a large field experiment which mimics campaign behavior with a targeted, partisan get-out-the-vote campaign. Our findings show that across all treatments, automated calls led to three additional votes for every thousand subjects called during the 2014 midterm general election. Additionally, our experimental design allows for testing how the number of calls in a treatment, that is dosage, affects voter turnout. Here, results show that three extra calls increase the treatment effect to seven additional votes per thousand subjects called, but that too many additional calls decrease that effect to statistical insignificance in a six-call treatment.

Personal Networks and Election in Divided Society: Women Candidates’ Strategy in the 2019 Legislative Election in Ambon Indonesia

Research on electoral politics in post-conflict areas tended to place religious primordiality as a key explanation for electoral preferences and voting behaviour. Although they contribute to explaining fragmentation and patterns of relationships between groups, they ignore personal networks in electoral consolidation. Based on the case study in the 2019 legislative election in Ambon Indonesia, this article discusses the strategies of women candidates who cross religious primordialism. This study found that women candidates seek to use personal networks to help them consolidate constituencies and votes in interfaith communities. This situation happened in the context where there was a tight competition between candidates because of the electoral system and simultaneous elections. Candidates cannot rely on party machines or local institutions so they have to look for alternative strategies. The Ambon case shows that women candidates use personal networks to cross primordial division, which is a constituency characterized by residence locations divided on a religious basis. Personal networks appear in various forms and functions, but all contribute to additional votes as well as a new trend in which politicians approach interfaith communities. In this sense, electoral democracy in a divided society can contribute to the maintenance of peace.

Фактори формування демонстраційних формальних правил у сфері охорони навколишнього середовища

The article is aimed at identifying the factors contributing to the formation of demonstration formal rules and further determining their impact on the dynamics of the efficiency of the current institutional framework. It is shown that the main reason for the formation of demonstration formal rules is the desire on the part of political forces to get additional votes in elections. At that, both opposition political forces and those in power can resort to the practice of adopting demonstrative formal rules. Factors contributing to the adoption of demonstration formal rules are the following: the lack of influence of interested groups, the high level of public concern, and the low level of transaction costs associated with the adoption of appropriate demonstration formal rules. It is identified that the main shortcomings of demonstration formal rules are their low efficiency, which, in the case of the spread of the practice of manipulating public sentiments, is accompanied by significant reverse asymmetry, and the danger of creating an illusion of solving the relevant problem in society. As a result, there is a threat of conservation and inefficient existing institutional frameworks in the long term. It is proved that as demonstrative formal rules can be adopted only those formal rules that do not contradict the moral and ethical views of most of society, that do not create excessive additional transaction costs of bureaucratic procedures for most consumers, and do not contradict the interests of any group concerned. As result, demonstration formal rules can be characterized solely by targeted inefficiency. It is shown that the only measure to prevent the emergence of demonstration formal rules is to increase the general education of the population, which should not only limit the manipulation of public sentiments around problems governed by demonstrative formal rules, but also allow society a sensible valuation of both the level of threat of certain problems and the efficiency of the proposed formal rules.

Who buys vote-buying? How, how much, and at what cost?

In this paper, I estimate the causal effects of a local food-subsidy program on electoral outcomes. I exploit the variation in voters’ walking distances from the program stores to identify their accessibility to the program. I find that a distributive spending in the amount of ∼5% of GDP per capita buys an additional vote for the incumbent. I then investigate who –based on partisanship– responds to the subsidy, and how much and how they respond. The findings indicate that all types of voters respond to the distributive spending in line with the reciprocity rule; however, they respond through different channels and in different magnitude. Importantly, the salient channel for opposition voters is abstention-buying, whereas incumbent supporters respond by an increased turnout.

How Often Do People Vote While Incarcerated? Evidence from Maine and Vermont

Recent debates about enfranchising incarcerated people raise the question of how many additional votes such policies would generate. Existing research finds very low voter participation among previously incarcerated people, but it remains unclear how often people might vote from prison if given the opportunity. We use data from states that allow people to vote while incarcerated for felony crimes, to address this question. We merge prison records with the voter file to estimate how many currently incarcerated people are registered and voted in recent elections. Estimates suggest very few (under one in 10) eligible incarcerated voters in Vermont and Maine voted in the 2018 election. Given the winning margins in other states’ recent elections, these estimates suggest that enfranchising currently incarcerated people would likely not have changed these statewide election outcomes. We conclude that debates about enfranchisement should focus less on anticipated electoral effects and more on normative issues.

Green or Gender-Modern Nativists: Do They Exist and Do They Vote for Right-Wing Populist Parties?

ABSTRACT A current focal point of right-wing populist (RWP) parties across Western societies has been anti-environmentalism and anti-feminism, entangled with their dominant anti-migrant agenda. This clustering of positions overlaps with the conceptual GAL-TAN (Green, Alternative, Liberalist – Traditional, Authoritarian, Nationalist) distinction in voter studies. Still, numerous voters might transcend this distinction, for instance adhering to femonationalism. By taking a feminist ground-up approach, we reveal how nativist, anti-feminist, and anti-environmentalist attitudes do (or do not) cluster across Western Europe. Our results show that approximately 30% of voters deviate from the GAL-TAN logic, with considerable clusters of citizens combining strong nativism with support for gender equality or moderate nativism with anti-feminism. Further, we estimate the support for RWP parties and show that nativism is core to supporting RWP elites, and anti-environmentalism can provide an additional vote bonus. However, our analysis reveals that the (anti-)feminist and nativist elements of people’s political ideology entail more complex entanglements: both anti-feminist nativist voters and femonationalist voters gravitate to RWP parties. These results imply that feminist quantitative studies are needed to lay bare the average-defying minority groups that can be mobilised to support RWP parties.

Identifying voter preferences through two-stage multivoting elections: Experiments in the preface of the 2020 democratic primaries

This paper examines a method of quantifying voter preferences and behavior using a two-stage multivoting (2SMV) model. The 2SMV model gives voters an endowment of additional votes exceeding the number of policies under consideration in a direct democracy-style election. Voters may freely allocate this endowment to any of the policies up for election. Using the 2SMV mechanism, the paper provides a methodology for identifying voter preferences and voting behavior within a staged multivoting system. From this methodology, three types of voting behavior are defined: policy indifference, strictly-dominating preferences, and fixed-weight preferences. Using experimental data collected from college students, the study evaluates the performance of the two-stage multivoting system in the context of the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primaries, compared to the traditional “one-person, one-vote” (1P1V) system. Using the full sample of observations, the 1P1V system resulted in a tie between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, while the 2SMV system selected Joe Biden over Bernie Sanders as the nominee by a 206 net vote difference. The study finds that the 2SMV system produces more unique and distant ranks between candidates, reducing the prevalence of ties common within the 1P1V system.

Male MPs, electoral vulnerability and the substantive representation of women's interests

AbstractWhat are the political conditions affecting male MPs’ willingness to represent women's interests in parliament? This paper explores the role of electoral vulnerability in this regard and analyzes whether male MPs’ re‐election prospects affect their likelihood of paying attention to women's concerns. Theoretically, we expect that male MPs are not blamed if they do not represent women's interests but can gain additional credit for doing so. Thus, male MPs should be more likely to speak on behalf of women if their electoral vulnerability is high and if they need to win additional votes to be re‐elected. Empirically, the paper analyzes the representation of women's issues in the British House of Commons, by using Early Day Motions tabled preceding the General Elections in 2001, 2005, 2010 and 2015. The results show that male MPs are more likely to represent women's interests when their re‐election is at risk.

Compilation Complexity of Multi-Winner Voting Rules (Student Abstract)

Compiling the votes of a subelectorate consists of storing the votes of a subset of voters in a compressed form, such that the winners can still be determined when additional votes are included. This leads to the notion of compilation complexity, which has already been investigated for single-winner voting rules. We perform a compilation complexity analysis of several common multi-winner voting rules.

Why Geographically-Targeted Spending Under Closed-List Proportional Representation Favors Marginal Districts

Research on geographically-targeted spending under closed-list proportional representation (CLPR) is characterized by debate over whether ruling parties target core supporters or swing voters. We show that when CLPR is used in multiple districts and separate competitions are conducted in each, parties can reverse the formula through which votes are converted into seats to calculate how many additional votes they need to capture an additional seat. This enables parties to rank districts according to how close they are to winning an additional seat. We then show that under divisor-based formulae, parties will find they need fewer additional votes to capture another seat in districts where they captured fewer seats (‘marginal districts’). We posit that in these systems, ruling parties will steer geographically-targeted spending toward marginal PR districts and we present evidence of this from Japan.

Improved rank selection algorithm

Problem statement. A rank algorithm for selecting radio emission modes for operation in conditions of heterogeneity of sources and complex interference conditions, including the possible presence of mutual interference, is synthesized.Objective. The synthesis purpose is to ensure the independence of mode recognition from particular features of radio emission observation. Algorithm input is the primary signal processing result that includes such estimations as pulses durability, frequency and amplitude dynamics, and absolute variations. Primary decision statistics are formed using these values: observable signal base and relation variations of frequency and amplitude. Secondary statistics are formed based on primary ones using median and recursive or maximum and recursive smoothing. Each of the decision statistics in the multi-threshold procedure is transformed into a row of ranks, the size of which corresponds to the number of recognized modes. In aggregate, these lines form a ranking table (matrix) with colons representing recognized modes’ discrete descriptions. Fluent observation processing includes rank formation for used decision statistics. Mode recognition is performed either following a ranking table or using an additional voting procedure 2/3. An alternative approach consists of constructing the Manhattan mismatch metric of the current and reference ranks and making a decision on the criterion of the minimum mismatch metric.Results. Mode recognition performed on results of this comparison using unbalance metrics minimum criterion. Thresholds in frames of the ranking procedure are formed heuristically at ranking table formation. They are then used at fluent rank formation for observable modes. The performed numerical experiment shows that maximal and recursive filtration provides an errorless selection of all observable modes. This filtration represents the composition of maximum selection in sliding window and subsequent recursive first-order filtration. An additional advantage of this filtration is a simpler maximum selection in comparison with the median one. In perspective, it can provide increased operating speed.Practical implications. Performed consideration shows that rank selection is worthwhile at the observation of heterogeneous irradiation sources. Algorithm strength is decision simplicity in a complex situation. Additional algorithm advantage is the possibility of extending alternative irradiation modes and, hence, for more representative data sets.

Cytokine adsorption in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia requiring extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: protocol for a randomised, controlled, open-label intervention, multicentre trial

IntroductionVeno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (V-V ECMO) is a last resort treatment option in patients with severe COVID-19 related acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Mortality in these critically ill patients is...

An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles

Abstract. Multi-model ensembles can be used to estimate uncertainty in projections of regional climate, but this uncertainty often depends on the constituents of the ensemble. The dependence of uncertainty on ensemble composition is clear when single-model initial condition large ensembles (SMILEs) are included within a multi-model ensemble. SMILEs allow for the quantification of internal variability, a non-negligible component of uncertainty on regional scales, but may also serve to inappropriately narrow uncertainty by giving a single model many additional votes. In advance of the mixed multi-model, the SMILE Coupled Model Intercomparison version 6 (CMIP6) ensemble, we investigate weighting approaches to incorporate 50 members of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2-LE), 50 members of the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2-LE), and 100 members of the MPI Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) into an 88-member Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. The weights assigned are based on ability to reproduce observed climate (performance) and scaled by a measure of redundancy (dependence). Surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) predictors are used to determine the weights, and relationships between present and future predictor behavior are discussed. The estimated residual thermodynamic trend is proposed as an alternative predictor to replace 50-year regional SAT trends, which are more susceptible to internal variability. Uncertainty in estimates of northern European winter and Mediterranean summer end-of-century warming is assessed in a CMIP5 and a combined SMILE–CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. Five different weighting strategies to account for the mix of initial condition (IC) ensemble members and individually represented models within the multi-model ensemble are considered. Allowing all multi-model ensemble members to receive either equal weight or solely a performance weight (based on the root mean square error (RMSE) between members and observations over nine predictors) is shown to lead to uncertainty estimates that are dominated by the presence of SMILEs. A more suitable approach includes a dependence assumption, scaling either by 1∕N, the number of constituents representing a “model”, or by the same RMSE distance metric used to define model performance. SMILE contributions to the weighted ensemble are smallest (<10 %) when a model is defined as an IC ensemble and increase slightly (<20 %) when the definition of a model expands to include members from the same institution and/or development stream. SMILE contributions increase further when dependence is defined by RMSE (over nine predictors) amongst members because RMSEs between SMILE members can be as large as RMSEs between SMILE members and other models. We find that an alternative RMSE distance metric, derived from global SAT and hemispheric SLP climatology, is able to better identify IC members in general and SMILE members in particular as members of the same model. Further, more subtle dependencies associated with resolution differences and component similarities are also identified by the global predictor set.

Extra votes to signal loyalty: regional political cycles and national elections in Russia

Under the system of presidential appointments of regional governors, which existed in Russia from 2005 to 2012, gubernatorial loyalty to the central government and particularly governors’ ability to deliver satisfactory results to the ruling party in national-level elections were crucial to their likelihood of being reappointed to the next term. In this paper, we argue that governors, anticipating the relationship between loyalty and reappointments, attempted to deliver additional votes to the ruling party, and show that those attempts were subject to regional political cycles. Exploiting variation in the starting and expiry dates of Russian regional governors’ terms of office, we find that the winning margins for a pro-government party across Russian regions in national-level elections held between 2007 and 2012 were substantially higher when elections were closer to the beginning or to the expiration of a regional governor’s term. The effect is driven almost exclusively by the governors serving their first terms. However, for elections held between 1999 and 2004, when governors were subject to direct votes by regional constituencies, no similar effect is found. The results can be explained by, e.g., first impression and recency biases in appointment decisions. We then implement several exercises to identify the sources of the additional votes for the ruling party and demonstrate that governors, while unlikely committing electoral fraud, likely exerted effort to stimulate turnout among ruling party supporters.