Treating cancer is an important health care outcome but it is costly. Increasing numbers of anti-cancer treatments are becoming available. These new treatments can be used as new additional lines of therapy - where treatments are used in succession after the failure of previous treatments. Randomised controlled trials rarely involve multiple lines of therapy. Therefore, the relationship between treatments, cost and the effectiveness require real-world data. This study estimates the cost per month for lines of therapy in the Australian health system. An analysis of the cost per month of a prospective advanced cancer Australian cohort (228 patients) was undertaken. Activity was identified from reimbursement and administrative databases and costed. Lines of therapy were estimated from medical notes. A panel of multiple observations for individuals over time was constructed. Multivariate regression was undertaken to control for confounders. Price changes were calculated to maintain the cost as estimated in the initial line of therapy. The total cost of the cohort was $AUD 19,000,000. The mean cost per month was $4,384. The cost in the first line was approximately $4,000 and increased to $8,000 per month for later lines of therapy. The results of the multivariate analysis suggested cost rose by $1,700 per month in the second line to $2,400 per month in the fifth line of therapy after adjusting for confounders. It was estimated that price reductions of 28% (95% CI 14 to 40%) would be required to return the cost per month to original levels. Real-world data is not easy to obtain, and analyses need careful adjustment for confounding. This information is required to ensure that the relationship between costs and survival is understood, appropriate policies introduced and the impacts of the policies are able to be monitored. The results of this study need to be confirmed in other cohorts.
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