Adaptive Water Resources Management Research Articles

Spatiotemporal Trend Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall over Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia

Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. This study assessed the historical (1983–2005) and future (2026–2100) rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) trends of the Ziway Lake Basin (Ethiopia). The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. The CMIP5 datasets were statistically downscaled by using the climate model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd) tool and bias corrected using the distribution mapping method available in the CMhyd tool. The performance of simulated rainfall, Tmax, and Tmin of the CMIP5 models were statistically evaluated using observation datasets at eleven stations. The results showed that the selected CMIP5 models can reasonably simulate the monthly rainfall, Tmax, and Tmin at the majority of the stations. Modified Mann–Kendall trend test were applied to estimate the trends of annual rainfall, Tmax, and Tmin in the historical and future periods. We found that rainfall experienced no clear trends, while Tmax, and Tmin showed consistently significant increasing trends under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. However, the warming is expected to be greater under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5 by the end of the 21st century, resulting in an increasing trend of Tmax and Tmin at all stations. The greatest warming occurred in the central part of the basin, with statistically significant increases largely seen by the end of the 21st century, which is expected to exacerbate the evapotranspiration demand of the area that could negatively affect the freshwater availability within the basin. This study increases our understanding of historic trends and projected future change effects on rainfall- and evapotranspiration-related climate variables, which can be used to inform adaptive water resource management strategies.

Impact Assessment of Climate Change on the Near and the Far Future Streamflow in the Bocheongcheon Basin of Geumgang River, South Korea

Highly concentrated precipitation during the rainy season poses challenges to the South Korean water resources management in efficiently storing and redistributing water resources. Under the new climate regime, water resources management is likely to become more challenging with regards to water-related disaster risk and deterioration of water quality. To alleviate such issues by adjusting management plans, this study examined the impact of climate change on the streamflow in the Bocheongcheon basin of the Geumgang river. A globally accepted hydrologic model, the HEC-HMS model, was chosen for the simulation. By the calibration and the validation processes, the model performance was evaluated to range between “satisfactory” and “very good”. The calibrated model was then used to simulate the future streamflow over six decades from 2041 to 2100 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results indicated significant increase in the future streamflow of the study site in all months and seasons over the simulation period. Intensification of seasonal differences and fluctuations was projected under RCP 8.5, implying a challenge for water resources managers to secure stable sources of clean water and to prevent water-related disasters. The analysis of the simulation results was applied to suggest possible local adaptive water resources management policy.

Thermodynamic response of precipitation extremes to climate change and its impacts on floods over China

<p indent=0mm>As the planet warms, shifts in the thermodynamic and dynamic environments of the climate system exert substantial impacts on the energy budget and water cycle. Understanding the response of precipitation extremes to climate change is essential for mitigating weather-related hazards and facilitating adaptive water resources management. The moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere, governed by the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relationship, increases with temperature at a rate of about 7%/°C. Thermodynamically, precipitation intensity is expected to increase exponentially and worsen flood conditions with atmospheric warming. However, both observational and satellite data have revealed a nonmonotonic (hook) scaling of precipitation and storm runoff, in which extremes strengthen with warming temperature up to a peak point (<italic>T</italic>_pp) and decline thereafter. Few studies have yet considered whether and why the hook structure might change in a future warming climate. Moreover, existing studies have largely failed to detect and attribute changes of extreme precipitation to atmospheric thermodynamics versus dynamics, limiting reliable projection of future hydrological hazards and climate simulations. Here, we build upon existing studies to understand how precipitation and storm runoff scaling might change over Chinese mainland. We use gridded observational data to examine the temperature scaling of precipitation and storm runoff extremes, extending the C-C relationship. Using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, we diagnose the impacts of total column water vapor (TCWV), convective available potential energy (CAPE) and relative humidity on precipitation extremes. After partitioning the thermodynamic and dynamic contributions of precipitation extremes based on the energy budget and water vapor balance, we quantify the underlying physical mechanisms of hook structures. Future climate scenarios are projected by using a large ensemble from 21 global climate models (GCMs) within Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase-6 (CMIP6). Future streamflow series of 151 basins are projected by forcing hydrological model with bias-corrected climate model outputs. We quantify changes in the hook structures and their <italic>T</italic>_pp, and investigate implications of these shifts for future storms and flooding. The results show that relative humidity usually decreases with warming near-surface temperatures over most areas of China, while the TCWV and CAPE exhibit positive scaling rates with temperatures. The ERA5 reanalysis data over China reveals that atmospheric dynamics are responsible for the intensification of precipitation extremes and even flooding under very warm temperatures. The daily bias correction method reduces the systematical biases of GCMs outputs adequately, and captures extreme precipitation and temperatures well. By using four different hydrological models, we find that the Xinanjiang model typically exhibits the best performance in simulating daily streamflow over Chinese mainland. Projections of future hydro-climatological scenarios indicate that the hook structures do not set a firm upper-bound constraint on the intensification of extremes; rather, both the hook structure and the <italic>T</italic>_pp shift toward warmer temperatures in a warming climate. Alongside the shifts in <italic>T</italic>_pp, future storm and flooding extremes are projected to intensify by 20%−30%. These findings highlight the urgency in enhancing societal resilience to climate change, and understanding how the intensification of weather-related hazards might affect existing infrastructure and ecosystems.

A holistic water monitoring approach for an effective ecosystem management

Eutrophication is one of the most pressing problems affecting water quality. As a consequence, harmful algae blooms (HABs) are intensifying their occurrence in many aquatic ecosystems around the world. Under this water quality risk scenario, long term monitoring arises as a need to recognize, understand and anticipate the HABs outbreaks. However, existing monitoring methodologies are limited when dealing with HABs, thus forcing to make assumptions and decisions based on interpolated and inconsistent data. This conceptual paper attempts to highlight the importance of moving towards an integrated water monitoring methodology, where manual sampling, on-site automatic high-frequency monitoring (AHFM) and remote sensing are aligned to facilitates decision-making. In addition, because of the key role of microbial communities on the drift of aquatic ecosystems and water quality, they should be considered as a key element in HABs monitoring and management programs. In this manner, the biotic knowledge could be integrated into coordinated response plans as ecosystem management tools. Therefore, this holistic approach could provide decision makers and stakeholders an adaptive water resource management grounded on the theory of ecohydrology.

Runoff response to directional land cover change across reference basins in the conterminous United States

Land cover change plays a critical role in influencing hydrological responses. Change in land cover has impacted runoff across basins with substantial human interference; however, the impacts in basins with minimal human interference have been studied less. In this study, we investigated the impacts of directional land cover changes (forest to/from combined grassland and shrubland) in runoff coefficient (RC; ratio of runoff to precipitation) and runoff volume across 603 low human interference reference basins in the conterminous United States (CONUS). The results indicate basins with significant (p<0.05) increasing trends in runoff and RC were across the northeast and northwest regions of CONUS, and basins with decreasing trends were in the southern CONUS region. A unit percent increase in basin area from grassland and shrubland to forest was associated with a ∼4% decrease in RC across basins with decreasing RC trends. Similarly, a unit percent increase in basin area from forest to a combined grassland and shrubland was associated with a ∼1% increase in RC across increasing RC trend basins. Runoff volume was decreased (increased) by ∼25 × 106 m3 yr−1 (∼9 × 106 m3 yr−1) across basins with decreasing (increasing) trends in runoff and RC. When relating runoff volume with the area of directional land cover changes, each 1 km2 increase in area from grassland and shrubland to forest resulted in a decrease of ∼530,000 m3 runoff volume across basins with decreasing trends. In contrast, each 1 km2 increase in area from forest to grassland and shrubland increased runoff volume by ∼200,000 m3 across increasing trend basins. Basins in the southern region of CONUS were more impacted by runoff parameters (RC and runoff volume) from directional land cover changes than basins in the northern region. The findings of this study are useful for planning and managing water availability for sustainable and adaptive water resources management at regional scales.

Spatial and Temporal Shifts in Historic and Future Temperature and Precipitation Patterns Related to Snow Accumulation and Melt Regimes in Alberta, Canada

Shifts in winter temperature and precipitation patterns can profoundly affect snow accumulation and melt regimes. These shifts have varying impacts on local to large-scale hydro-ecological systems and freshwater distribution, especially in cold regions with high hydroclimatic heterogeneity. We evaluate winter climate changes in the six ecozones (Mountains, Foothills, Prairie, Parkland, Boreal, and Taiga) in Alberta, Canada, and identify regions of elevated susceptibility to change. Evaluation of historic trends and future changes in winter climate use high-resolution (~10 km) gridded data for 1950–2017 and projections for the 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100) under medium (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios. Results indicate continued declines in winter duration and earlier onset of spring above-freezing temperatures from historic through future periods, with greater changes in Prairie and Mountain ecozones, and extremely short or nonexistent winter durations in future climatologies. Decreases in November–April precipitation and a shift from snow to rain dominate the historic period. Future scenarios suggest winter precipitation increases are expected to predominantly fall as rain. Additionally, shifts in precipitation distributions are likely to lead to historically-rare, high-precipitation extreme events becoming more common. This study increases our understanding of historic trends and projected future change effects on winter snowpack-related climate and can be used inform adaptive water resource management strategies.

A statistical approach for reconstructing natural streamflow series based on streamflow variation identification

Abstract Natural streamflow reconstruction is highly significant to assess long-term trends, variability, and pattern of streamflow, and is critical for addressing implications of climate change for adaptive water resources management. This study proposed a simple statistical approach named NSR-SVI (natural streamflow reconstruction based on streamflow variation identification). As a hybrid model coupling Pettitt's test method with an iterative algorithm and iterative cumulative sum of squares algorithm, it can determine the reconstructed components and implement the recombination depending only on the information of change points in observed annual streamflow records. Results showed that NSR-SVI is suitable for reconstructing natural series and can provide the stable streamflow processes under different human influences to better serve the hydrologic design of water resource engineering. Also, the proposed approach combining the cumulative streamflow curve provides an innovative way to investigate the attributions of streamflow variation, and the performance has been verified by comparing with the relevant results in nearby basin.

Projected Changes in Water Year Types and Hydrological Drought in California’s Central Valley in the 21st Century

The study explores the potential changes in water year types and hydrological droughts as well as runoff, based on which the former two metrics are calculated in the Central Valley of California, United States, in the 21st century. The latest operative projections from four representative climate models under two greenhouse-gas emission scenarios are employed for this purpose. The study shows that the temporal distribution of annual runoff is expected to change in terms of shifting more volume to the wet season (October–March) from the snowmelt season (April–July). Increases in wet season runoff volume are more noticeable under the higher (versus lower) emission scenario, while decreases in snowmelt season runoff are generally more significant under the lower (versus higher) emission scenario. In comparison, changes in the water year types are more influenced by climate models rather than emission scenarios. When comparing two regions in the Central Valley, the rain-dominated Sacramento River region is projected to experience more wet years and less critical years than the snow-dominated San Joaquin River region due to their hydroclimatic and geographic differences. Hydrological droughts in the snowmelt season and wet season mostly exhibit upward and downward trends, respectively. However, the uncertainty in the direction of the trend on annual and multi-year scales tends to be climate-model dependent. Overall, this study highlights non-stationarity and long-term uncertainty in these study metrics. They need to be considered when developing adaptive water resources management strategies, some of which are discussed in the study.

Investigating Hydrological Variability in the Wuding River Basin: Implications for Water Resources Management under the Water–Human-Coupled Environment

Understanding and quantifying changes in hydrological systems due to human interference are critical for the implementation of adaptive management of global water resources in the changing environment. To explore the implications of hydrological variations for water resources management, the Wuding River Basin (WRB) in the Loess Plateau, China, was selected as a case study. Based on the Budyko-type equation with a time-varying parameter n, a human-induced water–energy balance (HWEB) model was proposed to investigate the hydrological variability in the WRB. The investigation showed that runoff continuously reduced by 0.424 mm/a during 1975–2010, with weakly reducing precipitation and increasing groundwater exploitation causing a decrease in groundwater storage at a rate of 1.07 mm/a, and actual evapotranspiration accounting for more than 90% of precipitation having an insignificantly decreasing trend with a rate of 0.53 mm/a under climate change (decrease) and human impact (increase). Attribution analysis indicated that human-induced underlying surface condition change played a dominant role in runoff reduction by driving an increase in actual evapotranspiration, and that mainly impacted the overall decrease in runoff compounded by climate change during the entire period. It is suggested that reducing the watershed evapotranspiration and controlling groundwater exploitation should receive greater attention in future basin management.

Tolerance of young allis shad Alosa alosa (Clupeidae) to oxy-thermic stress.

The ecology of the young stages of allis shad Alosa alosa is poorly documented, although they can be exposed to many pressures during their freshwater phase and their downstream migration. When passing through systems such as the Gironde-Garonne-Dordogne watershed (GGD, SW France), they can be subjected to high temperatures and low levels of oxygen (hypoxia). The aim of this work is to assess the tolerance of young Alosa alosa at four ages (c. 10, 30, 60 and 85 days old) by challenging them to different temperatures (18, 22, 26 and 28°C) together with decreasing oxygen saturation levels (from 100% to 30%). Survival of the 10-day-old individuals was not influenced by oxy-thermic conditions, but high stress levels were detected and perhaps this age class was too fragile regarding the constraint of the experimental design. Survival at 30 and at 60 days old was negatively influenced by the highest temperatures tested alone (from 26°C and from 28°C, respectively) but no effect was detected at 85 days old up to 28°C. A combined effect of temperature and oxygen level was highlighted, with heat accelerating survival decrease when associated with oxygen level depletion: essentially, survival was critical (<50%) at 30 days old at temperature ≥22°C together with 30% O2 ; at 60 days old, at temperature = 28°C with 30% O2 ; at 85 days old, at temperature ≥26°C with ≤40% O2 . Tolerance to oxy-thermic pressures appeared to be greater among the migratory ages (60 and 85 days old) than among the 30-day-old group. Based on environmental data recorded in the GGD system and on our experimental results, an exploratory analysis allowed a discussion of the possible impact of past oxy-thermic conditions on the local population dynamics between 2005 and 2018. The oxy-thermic conditions that may affect Alosa alosa at ages when they migrate downstream (60 and 85 days old) were not frequently recorded in this period, except in cases of extreme episodes of heat together with hypoxia that occurred in some years, in summertime in the turbidity maximum zone of the Gironde estuary (particularly in the year 2006). Interestingly, oxy-thermic conditions that are likely to threaten the 30-day-old individuals occurred more frequently in the lower freshwater parts of the GGD system between the years 2005 and 2018. In the context of climate change, a general increase in temperature is predicted, as well as more frequent and severe hypoxic events, therefore we suggest that local Alosa alosa population recruitment could encounter critical oxy-thermic conditions more frequently in the future if no adaptive management of water resources occurs.

Relative impacts of climate change and land cover change on streamflow using SWAT in the Clackamas River Watershed, USA

Abstract To understand the spatial–temporal pattern of climate and land cover (CLC) change effects on hydrology, we used three land cover change (LCC) coupled scenarios to estimate the changes in streamflow metrics in the Clackamas River Watershed in Oregon for the 2050s (2040–2069) and the 2080s (2070–2099). Coupled scenarios, which were split into individual and combined simulations such as climate change (CC), LCC, CLC change, and daily streamflow were simulated in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. The interannual variability of streamflow was higher in the lower urbanized area than the upper forested region. The watershed runoff was projected to be more sensitive to CC than LCC. Under the CLC scenario, the top 10% peak flow and the 7-day low flow are expected to increase (2–19%) and decrease (+9 to −20 cm s), respectively, in both future periods. The center timing of runoff in the year is projected to shift 2–3 weeks earlier in response to warming temperature and more winter precipitation falling as rain. High streamflow variability in our findings suggests that uncertainties can stem from both climate models and hydrologic model parameters, calling for more adaptive water resource management in the watershed.

Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptive Management Based on Projection Pursuit Model

Xiang, X. and Li, Q., 2020. Water resources vulnerability assessment and adaptive management based on projection pursuit model. In: Yang, Y.; Mi, C.; Zhao, L., and Lam, S. (eds.), Global Topics and New Trends in Coastal Research: Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 103, pp. 431–435. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.As the global climate continues to change, the demand for water resources in human society has been continuously expanding. Water shortages, frequent water pollution and natural disasters have become more and more serious. The issue of water resources security has aroused widespread concern in society. At present, the vulnerability of water resources is the main criterion for measuring the security status of water resources. The vulnerability assessment of water resources mainly studies the current vulnerability of water resources in the region and can reflect the degree of damage to water resources. The adaptive management is to improve the safety of water resources and optimize the future choice of water resources in the study area. Therefore, the assessment of water resources vulnerability combined with adaptive management is an important means to improve the safety of water resources. This article first defines the vulnerability and adaptive management of water resources in the basin based on the existing research results and the particularity of the water resources in the basin, and elaborate their connotations in detail. A water resources vulnerability assessment system based on DPSIR conceptual model is proposed. Secondly, by analyzing the influencing factors of water resources in the river basin, using the projection pursuit model and accelerated genetic algorithm (RAGA), a functional model of water vulnerability assessment based on RAGA projection pursuit was established. Finally, taking Hubei Province as an example, an empirical analysis was conducted to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources in Hubei Province, and a strategy for adaptive management of water resources was proposed.

Isolating of climate and land surface contribution to basin runoff variability: A case study from the Weihe River Basin, China

Affected by climate variability and human activities, the changes of basin environment have altered runoff, posing new challenges to water resources and land use management strategies, especially in areas with limited water resources. The purpose of this study is to quantify factors that drive the changes in runoff components. Annual runoff data from six hydrological stations in the Weihe River Basin, China and sixteen meteorological stations data from 1961 to 2015 were used. The Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt method were used to diagnose the runoff sequence and detect its abrupt-point. The period before the abrupt-point of annual runoff was taken as the base period (Period I), while the period after the abrupt-point was taken as the calculation period (Period II). The elasticity coefficient of runoff (Q) was deduced based on the Budyko hypothesis, including climate variabilities such as precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (Ep), and the catchment characteristics representing land surface changes (n). The elasticity coefficient was the smallest for Ep ranging from −1.210 ~ −2.847, intermediate for n ranging from −1.602 ~ −2.964, and greatest for P ranging from 2.210–3.847. Runoff exhibited a significant downward trend throughout the Weihe River Basin, where the land surface change is the main cause of runoff reduction, accounting for 75% at the largest Linjiacun hydrological station, with the smallest being 40.36% at the Zhuangtou hydrological station. Adaptive water resource management measures are necessary to cope with future environmental change and water resource scarcity.

Potential future changes of terrestrial water storage based on climate projections by ensemble model simulations

An accurate estimation of terrestrial water storage (TWS) is crucial for water resource management and drought monitoring. However, the uncertainties in model physics, surface parameters and meteorological data often limit the accuracy of land surface hydrological models in estimating TWS. In this study, a multi-model-based framework was developed to predict TWS in China by 2050 using a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method and GRACE satellite observations. Compared to GRACE observations, our BMA-based TWS anomaly (TWSA) estimations reduce root mean square errors by 10–16% and increase correlation coefficients by 26–46% over semi-humid and semi-arid basins than simple arithmetical averaging for the validation period (2008–2016). At the same time, BMA shows decreasing root mean square differences (10–12%) over humid basins. The calibrated BMA weights were then applied to future projections of TWSA under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP): RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0. The overall rate of TWSA for the future period (2021–2050) was detected with the same direction as that from past decades (2003–2016), but with larger decreasing values. Especially for the Haihe basin in North China, BMA-based TWSA would decrease faster by about 19% for RCP 2.6 and 26% for RCP 6.0. These results suggest a decreasing trend in future TWS over most of the basins in China due to combined effects of global warming and human activities, which suggests likely aggravated risk of water shortage and a growing need for adaptive water resources management.

Streamflow into Beijing and Its Response to Climate Change and Human Activities over the Period 1956–2016

Streamflow is likely affected by climate change and human activities. In this study, hydro-meteorological data from six rivers upstream of Beijing, namely, the Yongdinghe, Baihe, Heihe, Chaohe, Juhe, and Jumahe Rivers, were analyzed to quantify the spatial and temporal variability of streamflow and their responses to climate change and human activities over the period of 1956–2016. The Mann–Kendall test and moving t-test were used to detect trends and changing points of the annual streamflow. Results showed that the streamflow into Beijing experienced a statistically significant downward trend (p &lt; 0.05), abruptly changing after the early 1980s, owing to climate and human effects. The climate elasticities of the streamflow showed that a 10% decrease in precipitation would result in a 24.5% decrease in total streamflow, whereas a 10% decrease in potential evapotranspiration would induce a 37.7% increase in total streamflow. Human activities accounted for 87% of the reduction in total streamflow, whereas 13% was attributed to climate change. Lastly, recommendations are provided for adaptive management of water resources at different spatial scales.

Regional Response to Global Warming: Water Temperature Trends in Semi-Natural Mountain River Systems

River water temperature (TW) is a key environmental factor that determines the quality of the fluvial environment and its suitability for aquatic organisms. Atmospheric warming, accompanied by more frequent extreme weather phenomena, especially heat waves and prolonged drought, may pose a serious threat to the river environment and native river ecosystems. Therefore, reliable and up-to-date information on current and anticipated changes in river flow and thermal conditions is necessary for adaptive water resource management and planning. This study focuses on semi-natural mountain river systems to reliably assess the magnitude of water temperature change in the Polish Carpathians in response to climatic warming. The Mann–Kendall test was used to detect trends in water temperature series covering the last 35 years (1984–2018). Significant, rising trends in annual water temperature were found for all studied sites, with differences in intensity (0.33–0.92 °C per decade). Trends in TW were strongest in summer and autumn (0.75–1.17 and 0.51–1.08 °C per decade), strong trends were found in spring (0.82–0.95 °C per decade), and weaker in winter (0.25–0.29 °C per decade). Simultaneous air temperature trends were broadly consistent with water temperature trends. This indicates the urgent need for adaptive management strategies to counteract thermal degradation of the fluvial environment under study.

Cascading effects of temperature alterations on trophic ecology of European grayling (Thymallus thymallus)

The aims of this project were to study: diet composition, food selectivity and the phenology of different prey items in grayling’s (Thymallus thymallus) diet. It was hypothesized, that alterations in mayfly emergence, caused by reservoir-induced thermal changes, have consequences for trophic ecology of drift-feeding fish. Sampling of fish and macroinvertebrates were conducted in two closely located rivers, one human-modified and the other an undisturbed river. Grayling preyed mainly on aquatic insects, but only mayflies were preferred. Seasonal changes of the fish diet were observed, and air temperature is considered a predictor of prey occurrence with different time lags, depending on the biology of the organisms. Significant differences in the abundances and probability of mayfly occurrence between two studied rivers were shown. The observed phenological shift suggests that distorted environmental cues were experienced by the Ephemeroptera in the modified river. The “lost generation” of insects which failed to complete development became a new food for fish. The results presented indicate that reservoir-induced thermal alterations in the rivers, similarly to climate change, can lead to a chain of consequences in the ecosystems. Taking into consideration the projected climate scenarios, further monitoring and forecasting of these effects are considered an important step for future mitigating actions and adaptive management of water resources.

Federal Decentralization and Adaptive Management of Water Resources: Reservoir Reallocation by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

AbstractReservoir operations must respond to changing conditions, such as climate, water demand, regulations, and sedimentation. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) can reallocate reservoir storage to respond to such changes. We assembled and analyzed a database of reservoir reallocations implemented and proposed by the Corps. While only a small portion of total reservoir storage nationwide has been reallocated, there are substantial differences in reallocation frequency and magnitude across the nation: some Corps Districts and Divisions use reallocation while others do not, relying more on discretion and small‐scale adaptation of operations. This difference illustrates how water resource agencies like the Corps decentralize management decisions to allow responding to disparate conditions. Decentralized decision‐making provides a responsive approach to water management, while centralized and hierarchical decision‐making is a slower, more deliberative approach. Decentralized decision‐making may lead to the accumulation of short‐term, local decisions over time to the point that the system is managed differently than anticipated. Reallocation, which is a form of planned adaptive management, can be accommodating of multiple competing demands and different stakeholders, yet expensive and less temporally responsive. The challenge for any large water resource management agency is to balance between local‐level, responsive discretion vs. centralized, planned decision‐making.

Adaptive management of water resources based on an advanced entropy method to quantify agent information

Abstract Adaptive management is currently an important method to optimize the management of complex water resources systems. Regional water resources adaptive management was conducted based on the advanced theory of a complex system multi-agent model; the state of an agent was tracked and modified by information entropy theory, which was improved by using individual standard deviations. With the goal of optimizing the adaptation of each agent of the region, water resources in the major grain production area of China were managed under the constraints of the total annual available water resources and water use efficiency requirements for 2015 and 2030. By introducing the adaptive water resources management in 2015, the domestic benefits and economic benefits increased by 2.90% and 14.81%, respectively, with respect to observed values. The ecological benefits declined by 3.63%, but ecological water demand was fully satisfied, and the ecological water environment was improved. Given the water use efficiency targets in 2030, applying adaptive management resulted in an increase of domestic, economic, and ecological benefits of 34.29%, 21.14%, and 1.78%, respectively. The results show that the adaptive management method presented can help managers to balance the benefits of various agents to determine the direction of water resources management decisions.

Proactive water shortage mitigation integrating system optimization and input uncertainty

A complete water shortage mitigation plan which includes water shortage indicators and mitigation measures is essential in adaptive water resources management. Current water shortage triggers used to manage water supply shortages typically recognize only past and current hydrologic conditions and system states, e.g., reservoir storage or water levels. A systematic approach to evaluate the effectiveness of water shortage mitigation measures is often lacked. This study proposes a general framework based on daily simulation-optimization computation scheme to develop water shortage mitigation plan. It includes an innovative simulation-optimization based water shortage trigger framework incorporating both demand and supply side uncertainties to evaluate the state of a water supply system. Stochastically generated demand/supply ensembles were used to simulate system decision variables that were used jointly with past and current hydrologic conditions to prescribe water shortage stages. Each water shortage stage was tied to specific demand and supply side adaptive management actions. A mixed integer programming model optimizing source allocation from surface water harvesting, groundwater production and a desalination plant was then used to minimize operational costs and protect the environment while meeting regional demand. Cumulative mitigation actions were implemented as the system moves progressively to a severe water shortage stage. Retrospective analysis using observed flow and demand in the past decade (2005–2015) was used to vet the approach and demonstrate the advantage of forward looking water shortage trigger development scheme. A combination of mitigation measures is evaluated using stochastic flow and demand in the year 2030, revealing that increased magnitude of groundwater production under severe water shortage situations could be largely (50%) reduced, owing to proactive mitigation actions. The framework was applied to Tampa Bay Water and it has general applications to regional water resources management for utilities across US and beyond.