Abstract
Streamflow is likely affected by climate change and human activities. In this study, hydro-meteorological data from six rivers upstream of Beijing, namely, the Yongdinghe, Baihe, Heihe, Chaohe, Juhe, and Jumahe Rivers, were analyzed to quantify the spatial and temporal variability of streamflow and their responses to climate change and human activities over the period of 1956–2016. The Mann–Kendall test and moving t-test were used to detect trends and changing points of the annual streamflow. Results showed that the streamflow into Beijing experienced a statistically significant downward trend (p < 0.05), abruptly changing after the early 1980s, owing to climate and human effects. The climate elasticities of the streamflow showed that a 10% decrease in precipitation would result in a 24.5% decrease in total streamflow, whereas a 10% decrease in potential evapotranspiration would induce a 37.7% increase in total streamflow. Human activities accounted for 87% of the reduction in total streamflow, whereas 13% was attributed to climate change. Lastly, recommendations are provided for adaptive management of water resources at different spatial scales.
Highlights
Streamflow is influenced by global climate change and human activities
The UF value of the total streamflow into Beijing has been consistently lower than −1.96 since 1968
The streamflow into Beijing declined by 69% from the baseline period to the changed period
Summary
Streamflow is influenced by global climate change and human activities. Hydrological research has been focused on identifying the driving factors behind changes in streamflow [1,3,4,5,6,7]. The findings can support sustainable water resource use and are of practical significance. Climate change, such as changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, results in streamflow changes [8,9]. Human activities can alter streamflow through land use/land cover change, soil and water conservation, reservoir operation, urbanization, water withdrawal, etc. Quantitative investigations of the effects of climate change and human activities on streamflow have been carried out [14,15,16,17,18]. As shown in the studies [15,16,17,18], investigating the characteristics of streamflow and quantifying its driving factors are imperative
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