Actuarial Risk Assessment Tools Research Articles

Investigating treatment change and its relationship to recidivism in a sample of 3773 sex offenders in the UK

This study examines the relationship between psychometric changes in treatment and recidivism in a sample of 3773 sex offenders. All had completed treatment in a prison, between 1996 and 2006. Clinically significant changes were calculated for the psychometrics, and for the overarching psychological problems as represented by the four domains in the Structured Assessment of Risk and Need (Thornton, Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 14, 139–154, 2002): (1) sexual interests; (2) pro-offending attitudes; (3) socio-affective problems; and (4) self-regulation problems. Analyses indicate that those whose scores were in the ‘normal range’ before and after treatment were reconvicted at a significantly lower rate than those whose scores were not in the ‘normal range’ after treatment on selected psychometric scales. Additionally, participants who were deemed ‘changed’ overall on three of the four risk domains were reconvicted at a lower rate than those who were deemed not to have changed on these domains. An overall treatment change status was also computed, but this did not add significantly to the predictive validity of a modified version of an actuarial risk assessment tool (RM2000, Thornton et al., Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 989, 223–235, 2003) in a Cox regression. The results of the study indicate the potential role and limitations of clinical methodologies in ascertaining whether treatment has worked.

Does Consideration of Psychopathy and Sexual Deviance Add to the Predictive Validity of the Static-99R?

The Static-99 is the most commonly used actuarial risk assessment tool for the prediction of sexual recidivism. In addition, the use of psychopathy and sexual deviance has been common in assessing sexual offenders, based on research suggesting that these factors have predictive validity. It has also become common practice to modify risk assessments based on the Static-99/99R because of the presence of psychopathy and indicators of deviant sexual interests, although to date there has been no research validating this procedure. The current research was conducted to fill this gap in the literature. Using a sample of 272 sexual offenders, the extent to which psychopathy, sexual deviance, and their interaction added to the predictive validity of the Static-99R was examined. Analyses were conducted using the whole sample as well as subgroups of rapists and child molesters. It was found that although the Static-99R predicted sexual recidivism, adding psychopathy and sexual deviance in a Cox regression analysis did not improve the prediction. This held true for child molesters when examined on their own. For rapists, although psychopathy and sexual deviance did not contribute to the prediction of sexual recidivism, for serious (i.e., violent including sexual) recidivism, the inclusion of psychopathy added to the prediction. Results are discussed in terms of implications for practice.

Merging Developmental and Criminal Career Perspectives

Currently, a majority of actuarial risk-assessment tools for sexual recidivism contain static risk factors that measure various aspects of the offender's prior criminal history in adulthood. The goal of the current study was to assess the utility of extending static risk factors, by using developmental and criminal career parameters of offending, in the actuarial assessment of risk of violent/sexual recidivism. The current study was based on a sample of 204 convicted sexual aggressors of women incarcerated in the province of Quebec, Canada between April 1994 and June 2000. Semistructured interviews were used to gather information on the offender's antisocial history prior to adulthood, and police records were used to collect data on the criminal career of these offenders in adulthood. For an average follow-up period of approximately 4 years, the violent/sexual recidivism rate for the sample was 23.7%. The results provided support for the inclusion of both developmental and criminal career indicators for the prediction of violent/sexual recidivism. More specifically, recidivists were characterized by an early onset antisocial trajectory and a pattern of escalation of antisocial behavior between childhood and adolescence. The findings suggest that risk assessors should look beyond broad adult criminal history data to include aspects of antisocial development to improve predictive accuracy.

Developing an empirical classification of violent offences for use in the prediction of recidivism in England and Wales

PurposeThe classification of criminal acts as violent or nonviolent should be a keystone of actuarial predictors of violent recidivism, as it affects their outcome measure and scoring of criminal history, thus influencing many decisions about sentencing, release and treatment allocation. Examination of existing actuarial and clinical violence risk assessment tools and research studies reveals considerable variation in the classifications used. This paper aims to use large samples to develop an alternative, empirically grounded classification that can be used to improve actuarial predictive scores within the offender assessment system (OASys), the tool used by the National Offender Management Service of England and Wales to assess static and dynamic risk.Design/methodology/approachTwo analytical steps are implemented. First, to identify offences that frequently involve violent acts, 230,334 OASys cases are analyzed for indicators of violent content. Second, the ability of dynamic and static risk factors to predict reoffending for various offence types is investigated, analyzing 26,619 OASys cases that have official recidivism data.FindingsThe resulting empirical classification of violent offences adds public order, criminal damage, threats/harassment, robbery/aggravated burglary and weapon possession offences to the central group of homicide and assault offences. The need to assess risk of sexual recidivism separately is discussed.Originality/valueThis study has successfully produced an offence classification for use in a new predictor of violent recidivism. The use of empirical methods to select these offences helps to maximise predictive validity.

Assessment of Offending During Leave: Development of the Leave Risk Assessment in a Sample of Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Patients

The Leave Risk Assessment (LRA) is an actuarial risk assessment tool composed of both historical and treatment-related subscales, developed to assess the risk of serious reoffending by forensic psychiatric patients. This study examines the psychometric properties of the Leave Risk Assessment. The sample was drawn from the same population on which the tool was developed consisting of 195 Dutch forensic psychiatric patients; 78 who re-offended during leave and 117 non-reoffenders. The Leave Risk Assessment had moderate predictive validity (AUC = .84) as well as incremental predictive value over the HCR-20. The results show that the LRA can have a significant contribution in the decision-making process regarding authorized leave.

Population heterogeneity, state dependence and sexual offender recidivism: The aging process and the lost predictive impact of prior criminal charges over time

Purpose Two competing theories explain the link between past and future criminal behavior: population heterogeneity and state dependence. Actuarial models of risk prediction emphasize static variables, akin to population heterogeneity. State dependence, has never been tested with similar populations. Methods Using survival modeling this study examines both population heterogeneity and state dependence using a sample of adult sex offenders incarcerated in Quebec, Canada from 1994–2000. Analyses were conducted on offenders age 36 and over ( n = 242). Official criminal activity was measured at: (a) 18–23 years; (b) 24–29 years; (c) 30–35 years; and, (d) 36 + years. Results Cox proportional hazards modeling shows stronger evidence for state dependence, suggesting changeability in risk over time. Conclusions Support was found for both offending continuity and discontinuity, or a mixed model of offending. Current actuarial risk assessment tools for adult sex offenders do not accommodate for the inclusion of state dependent and life-course processes, which could have implications for the potential overestimation of offender risk.

Comparing the Validity of the RM2000 Scales and OGRS3 for Predicting Recidivism by Internet Sexual Offenders

This study examined the predictive validity of four actuarial risk assessment tools with sexual offenders convicted of Internet offenses in England and Wales. Risk Matrix 2000 scales (RM2000/s, RM2000/v, and RM2000/c) and Offender Group Reconviction Scale 3 were examined to establish their accuracy in predicting sexual, violent, sexual and violent, and general reoffending in a sample of 1,344 Internet offenders who had either started a community sentence or been released from prison into the community by March 2007. A modified version of RM2000/s was used. Rates of proven reoffending were examined at 1 year for the majority of the sample (n = 1,326), and 2 years (n = 994) for those for whom these data were available. Proven reoffending was defined as any caution or conviction for a new offense. Reoffending rates were very low among this sample, and three quarters of the sexual reoffending was Internet related. The results indicate that all four tools had moderate to very good predictive accuracy as measured using receiver operating characteristics statistics when used to predict the outcome they were designed to (areas under the curve between .67 and .87). The results were also examined for generalist sexual offenders (those who had both Internet-related and other sexual offenses in their offense history) and Internet specialists (those whose sexual offenses were only Internet related) separately. The very low reoffending rate of the Internet specialists made these comparisons difficult. Further research is required with larger sample sizes and longer follow-up periods before firm conclusions can be made regarding the accuracy of these tools with Internet offenders.

An Examination of the Predictive Validity of the Risk Matrix 2000 in England and Wales

This study examined the predictive validity of an actuarial risk-assessment tool with convicted sexual offenders in England and Wales. A modified version of the RM2000/s scale and the RM2000 v and c scales (Thornton et al., 2003) were examined for accuracy in predicting proven sexual violent, nonsexual violent, and combined sexual and/or nonsexual violent reoffending in a sample of sexual offenders who had either started a community sentence or been released from prison into the community by March 2007. Rates of proven reoffending were examined at 2 years for the majority of the sample (n = 4,946), and 4 years ( n = 578) for those for whom these data were available. The predictive validity of the RM2000 scales was also explored for different subgroups of sexual offenders to assess the robustness of the tool. Both the modified RM2000/s and the complete v and c scales effectively classified offenders into distinct risk categories that differed significantly in rates of proven sexual and/or nonsexual violent reoffending. Survival analyses on the RM2000/s and v scales (N = 9,284) indicated that the higher risk groups offended more quickly and at a higher rate than lower risk groups. The relative predictive validity of the RM2000/s, v, and c, as calculated using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analyses, were moderate (.68) for RM2000/s and large for both the RM2000/c (.73) and RM2000/v (.80), at the 2-year follow-up. RM2000/s was moderately accurate in predicting relative risk of proven sexual reoffending for a variety of subgroups of sexual offenders.

Are Actuarial Risk Data Used to Make Determinations of Sex Offender Risk Classification?

This study examined whether evaluators use actuarial risk scores and risk information to make determinations about sex offender risk status for the purpose of enhanced registration and notification. Although it was expected that sexual offenders selected for enhanced registration and notification would have higher scores on actuarial risk assessment tools than those who were not selected, few differences were found between groups with regard to risk factors associated with sexual offense recidivism. Given that actuarial tools enhance the prediction of sexual recidivism, this study may shed light on problems in the implementation of sex offender policy measures. Results are discussed as they pertain to the assessment and application of registration and community notification statutes for sexual offenders.

Psychopathic and Neuropathic Pathways to Homicide: Examination of Harris and Rice's Two-Path Model of Criminal Violence in Homicide

The present research examined a two-path model of homicide defined by psychopathic and neuropathic pathways. Twenty-six forensic psychiatric inpatients found not guilty due to reason of insanity of homicide or attempted homicides were assessed. A large number of variables derived from standardized neuropsychological psychometric assessment, actuarial and structured risk assessment tools and structured interviews were analysed. Qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) and the Answer Tree program showed that independence of the two pathways was observed from a nomothetic analysis with individual variations understood by the complex variable relationships at an idiographic level.

The efficacy of violence prediction: A meta-analytic comparison of nine risk assessment tools.

Actuarial risk assessment tools are used extensively to predict future violence, but previous studies comparing their predictive accuracies have produced inconsistent findings as a result of various methodological issues. We conducted meta-analyses of the effect sizes of 9 commonly used risk assessment tools and their subscales to compare their predictive efficacies for violence. The effect sizes were extracted from 28 original reports published between 1999 and 2008, which assessed the predictive accuracy of more than one tool. We used a within-subject design to improve statistical power and multilevel regression models to disentangle random effects of variation between studies and tools and to adjust for study features. All 9 tools and their subscales predicted violence at about the same moderate level of predictive efficacy with the exception of Psychopathy Checklist--Revised (PCL-R) Factor 1, which predicted violence only at chance level among men. Approximately 25% of the total variance was due to differences between tools, whereas approximately 85% of heterogeneity between studies was explained by methodological features (age, length of follow-up, different types of violent outcome, sex, and sex-related interactions). Sex-differentiated efficacy was found for a small number of the tools. If the intention is only to predict future violence, then the 9 tools are essentially interchangeable; the selection of which tool to use in practice should depend on what other functions the tool can perform rather than on its efficacy in predicting violence. The moderate level of predictive accuracy of these tools suggests that they should not be used solely for some criminal justice decision making that requires a very high level of accuracy such as preventive detention.

Prediction of institutional aggression among personality disordered forensic patients using actuarial and structured clinical risk assessment tools: prospective evaluation of the HCR-20, VRS, Static-99, and Risk Matrix 2000

Entry to the Dangerous and Severe Personality Disorder (DSPD) service in England and Wales is heavily determined by risk status, and therefore requires valid procedures for monitoring changes in risk over time in order to make risk management decisions and determine patients’ suitability for transfer to lower security settings. Yet little is known about the validity of current risk assessment tools with the new DSPD population. This study reports a prospective evaluation of the predictive accuracy of the HCR-20, VRS, Static-99, and Risk Matrix 2000 with 44 consecutive admissions to the DSPD unit at a high secure forensic psychiatric hospital. Thirty eight per cent of the sample exhibited interpersonal physical aggression (IPA) on one or more instances over an average 1.5 year period following admission, and a similar percentage caused damage to property (DTP) on one or more occasions over the same period. All tools predicted DTP. HCR-20 Total and scale scores predicted IPA with structured final risk judgements also predicting repetitive (2 + incidents of) IPA. HCR-20 Risk Management scores were significantly associated with imminence of IPA. Results were discussed in terms of the practical utility of these tools with high risk forensic psychiatric inpatients.

POVERTY, STATE CAPITAL, AND RECIDIVISM AMONG WOMEN OFFENDERS*

Research Summary:This research investigates the effects of poverty and state capital (i.e., state‐sponsored support) on recidivism among women offenders. We seek also to determine whether criticisms directed at actuarial risk tools, such as the failure to take into account gender‐related factors (e.g., poverty status), have merit. A community corrections sample of 134 female felony offenders from one county in the State of Oregon and in the cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota is used to examine self‐reports of rearrest and probation or parole violations over a six‐month time period. Results from the logistic regression analyses show poverty status increases the odds of rearrest by a factor of 4.6, and it increases the odds of supervision violation by a factor of 12.7. In contrast, risk scores failed to predict recidivism once poverty status was taken into account. Among poor women offenders specifically, we find providing state‐sponsored support to address short‐term needs (e.g., housing) reduces the odds of recidivism by 83%. Not only do community corrections officers who make available state capital promote women's empowerment, they are also less likely to have clients who reoffend.Policy Implications:Our findings suggest that a commonly used actuarial risk assessment tool (i.e., the LSI‐R) does not sufficiently take into account the economic marginality of women offenders. At a minimum, existing tools should be refined or supplemented with other sources of information. During the early stages of supervision, community corrections agencies should encourage their officers to refer and advocate for poor women to receive available sources of state capital (e.g., subsidized housing) to address critical short‐term needs, which can improve their economic circumstances, help move them out of poverty, and reduce the likelihood of recidivism. More broadly, recent changes in welfare policy, such as “Working Toward Independence,” will experience (at best) limited success because the impetus behind these reforms is narrow (i.e., assigning personal responsibility for poverty). Welfare policy reforms can be improved by providing state‐sponsored resources in the areas of childcare, education, health care, and job training, which address the causes of economic marginalization (e.g., deficient reserves of social and human capital) among women in general.

The validity of North American risk assessment tools in predicting in‐patient violent behaviour in England

Purpose. Empirical support for the predictive validity of North American actuarial violence risk assessment tools in Britain is lacking. The purpose of the study was to explore the validity of the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL: SV), Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and the Historical part (H‐10) of the Historical/Risk/Clinical (HCR‐20) scheme, in predicting in‐patient violence in 87 mentally disordered patients in a medium‐secure unit.Methods. Actuarial scores were obtained retrospectively from pre‐admission/ admission case records. The presence/absence, severity and frequency of in‐patient violence was recorded by an independent researcher. The predictive accuracy and associations between predictors and outcome measures were evaluated using correlational analyses, regression procedures and receiver operator characteristics (ROC) analyses.Results. Scores on all three risk assessment tools were significantly higher in the violent cohort. The PCL: SV is the most robust predictor of in‐patient violence, and contributes significantly to the predictive validity of the VRAG and H‐10 scale of the HCR‐20.Conclusions. The PCL: SV appears to be a valid predictor of in‐patient violence within 12 weeks of admission to an English MSU and predictive validity is similar to that reported in North American studies.

A Cautionary Note on the Use of Actuarial Risk Assessment Tools for Social Control

Actuarial risk assessment tools for predicting interpersonal violence and criminal recidivism have proliferated in recent years, promising to enhance their use in the day-to-day operations of the criminal justice and mental health systems. The authors consider the social and political implications of using actuarial tools for social control by offering two specific challenges. First, they argue that actuarial tools are designed primarily to facilitate the efficient management of institutional resources rather than to target individuals or social conditions in need of reform. Second, they argue that the group-based nature of actuarial prediction methods may contribute to the continued marginalization of populations already at the fringes of the economic and political mainstream.

Predicting Violence by Serious Wife Assaulters

Assessing violence risk among wife assaulters is receiving increasing attention in the literature, but risk assessment tools specifically for this population are just beginning to be developed. The literature on wife assaulters suggests the importance of antisocial personality and behavior. The present study examines psychopathy; the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), a validated actuarial risk assessment tool for violent recidivism; and motives thought to be related to wife assault, in predicting violent recidivism among 88 men with a history of serious wife assault. Violent recidivism was lower among wife assaulters (24%) than among a larger sample of generally violent offenders (44%). Score on the Hare Psychopathy Checklist-Revised was a good predictor of subsequent violence, r = .35, and score on the VRAG was a significantly better predictor, r = .42, area under the curve (AUC) = .75. The prospects for predicting lethal wife assault and violence against specific victims are discussed.

Gender, Diversity And Risk Assessment In Canadian Corrections

Margaret Shaw and Kelly Hannah-Moffat consider the discriminatory implications of risk-based classification systems and of actuarial risk assessment tools in the Canadian correctional system.

A classification tree approach to the development of actuarial violence risk assessment tools.

Since the 1970s, a wide body of research has suggested that the accuracy of clinical risk assessments of violence might be increased if clinicians used actuarial tools. Despite considerable progress in recent years in the development of such tools for violence risk assessment, they remain primarily research instruments, largely ignored in daily clinical practice. We argue that because most existing actuarial tools are based on a main effects regression approach, they do not adequately reflect the contingent nature of the clinical assessment processes. To enhance the use of actuarial violence risk assessment tools, we propose a classification tree rather than a main effects regression approach. In addition, we suggest that by employing two decision thresholds for identifying high- and low-risk cases--instead of the standard single threshold--the use of actuarial tools to make dichotomous risk classification decisions may be further enhanced. These claims are supported with empirical data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.