Actuarial Risk Assessment Tools Research Articles

Convergent and Divergent Validity of the Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) in a Clinical Sample From California.

The Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) is a seven-item actuarial risk assessment tool that is used to estimate the potential for sexual recidivism among men convicted of child sexual exploitation material (CSEM; legally referred to as child pornography) offenses. In the current study, we examined the convergent and divergent validity of the CPORT in a clinical sample of 224 men on federal probation in the United States who were convicted of at least one type of CSEM offense. CPORT scores were significantly, moderately, and positively correlated with scores on another sexual offense risk assessment tool, the Risk Matrix 2000 (RM2000/S), showing broad evidence of convergent validity, and was nonsignificantly associated with scores on a general offense risk assessment tool, the Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI), showing evidence of divergent validity. There was also evidence of specific convergent validity; for example, the CPORT item reflecting prior criminal history was most strongly related to the Criminal History domain of the LS/CMI, and CPORT items reflecting sexual interest in children were significantly and strongly associated with self-reported sexual interest in children from the clinical evaluation. We also examined the impact of including clinical information in the scoring of the CPORT. Including this information reduced the amount of missing scores, but the impact on predictive accuracy is not yet known. Implications for clinical practices are discussed.

Optimizing child protection systems: A systematic review of the literature on risk assessment practices

Child maltreatment is a global phenomenon that has affected millions of children, with far-reaching consequences for their development. The assessment of risk has emerged as a fundamental and indispensable component within child protection services. Professionals should use safe and effective risk assessment practices, always prioritizing the best interests of the child. This systematic review aims to elucidate the prevailing risk assessment practices employed by professionals within the child protection systems. The systematic review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Thirteen empirical studies were selected, featuring participants from diverse fields such as social services, health, psychology, and law enforcement. The professionals relied on a multifaceted approach, incorporating clinical judgment, professional expertise, actuarial risk assessment tools, individual interviews with children, adolescents, and family members, as well as the observation of familial dynamics. Moreover, intra- and interinstitutional collaboration played a pivotal role in the comprehensive evaluation of risk. Consequently, the discerned efficient practice appears to be a synergistic effort undertaken by a transdisciplinary team. This collaborative action encompasses the utilization of clinical judgment, augmented by the judicious administration of actuarial risk assessment instruments.

Are Mental Disorders Associated with Recidivism in Men Convicted of Sexual Offenses?

In offending populations, prevalence rates of mental disorders are much higher than in the general population. Nevertheless, it is unclear whether mental disorders can improve the prediction of recidivism beyond actuarial risk assessment tools. The present prospective-longitudinal study was conducted between 2001 and 2021 and included 1066 men convicted of sexual offenses in Austria. All participants were evaluated with actuarial risk assessment tools for the prediction of sexual and violent recidivism and the Structured Clinical Interview for Axis I and Axis II disorders. Sexual and violent reconvictions were assessed. Exhibitionism and an exclusive pedophilia showed the strongest correlations with sexual recidivism in the total sample. In the child related offense subsample additionally a narcissistic personality disorder was correlated with sexual recidivism. The strongest correlation with violent recidivism was found for an antisocial and borderline personality disorder. None of the mental disorders could improve the prediction of recidivism beyond actuarial risk assessment tools. Common current actuarial risk assessment tools revealed good predictive accuracy in men convicted of sexual offenses. With few exceptions mental disorders were only weakly associated with recidivism, suggesting that there is no direct link between mental disorders and violent and sexual reoffending. Mental disorders should nevertheless be considered in treatment issues.

Development of a risk assessment tool for Japanese sex offenders: The Japanese Static-99.

In Japan, sexual offending, especially paraphilic sexual offending, has become a major problem, and approximately 3000 people are arrested for frotteuristic and voyeuristic behavior each year. Considering the repetitive nature of such behaviors, determining the recidivism risk is imperative. Globally, Static-99 is one of the most widely used actuarial risk assessment tools to predict recidivism among sex offenders. However, sexual offending is largely influenced by social and cultural backgrounds, and whether risk factors identified in the West are applicable to other countries is unknown. Therefore, we developed a Japanese version of the Static-99 and examined its reliability and validity with 167 Japanese paraphilic sex offenders. The results showed good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha coefficient=0.88) and predictive accuracy (area under the curve=0.76). The results indicate that the Japanese Static-99 can be used with Japanese sex offenders. Moreover, risk factors identified in the Western context are applicable to Japanese sex offenders despite the different nature and manifestations of their offending.

The Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment: Predicting Violence Among Men With a Police Record of Intimate Partner Violence in the United States

The Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA) is an actuarial risk assessment tool for intimate partner violence (IPV) recidivism. Despite its international use, there is no published validation of the ODARA’s predictive accuracy in a U.S. sample. We studied 356 men in New York police records of IPV against a female partner to examine the ODARA’s predictive accuracy for IPV recidivism (base rate 35%), non-IPV violent recidivism (against a nonpartner; 16%), any violent recidivism (49%), and nonviolent recidivism (50%), in a fixed 2-year follow-up. Using 11 scorable ODARA items, area under the curve values were significant and ranged from .590 to .630, indicating small to medium effects. Expected/Observed indices revealed poor calibration with 2-year IPV recidivism rates in ODARA construction and cross-validation samples. Findings support the generalization of the ODARA’s predictive accuracy in different populations and outcomes, but a need for new norm development for higher risk populations.

A Systematic Review of Professionals’ Views About Community Management Policies for Individuals Convicted of Sexual Offenses

A contentious criminal justice policy issue in recent times has been community management policies for individuals convicted of sexual offenses. This systematic review attained professionals' views, areas of concern, and recommendations for community management policies. It went beyond the extant literature by exploring perceptions of heterogenous professional groups involved in the criminal justice system. Of the 25 studies, 12 were quantitative, nine qualitative, and four mixed methods, and included custodial and community correctional officers, probation officers, psychologists, police officers, prosecutors, lawmakers, and academics. Overall, professionals mostly supported the policies, but had less support for public registries and community notification. Four key issues associated with the policies were apparent: problems with actuarial risk assessment tools, difficulties accessing information with partner agencies, limited resources, and lack of education among the public. Within this, four recommendations were identified. These findings offer a valuable resource for researchers, along with government and policy professionals tasked with overseeing community management policies.

Validation and examination of the Ohio Youth Assessment System with juvenile sex offenders

Research SummaryIn this study, we examined the use of an actuarial risk assessment tool—the Ohio Youth Assessment System‐Disposition Tool (OYAS‐Disposition Tool)—with juvenile sex offenders. Specifically, the main goals of the study were to (a) examine the predictive validity of the tool with sex offenders and (b) explore the nature of the use of professional discretion used to override the tool. The sample consisted of 3,235 youth from a large juvenile county court in the Midwest. The results indicated that the OYAS‐Disposition Tool was a significantly better option for predicting general recidivism for sex offenders than it was for non–sex offenders. The tool was also an effective method for predicting sexual recidivism. Most importantly, however, the use of professional overrides significantly reduced the ability of researchers to apply the tool to predict new court petitions and adjudications to nonsignificant levels. Finally, several justifications were commonly used for overrides: treatment needs, offense seriousness, and use of an alternative sex‐offender–specific assessment.Policy ImplicationsThe findings in this study highlight several important policy implications that would improve the assessment process for juvenile sex offenders. First, agencies using specialized risk assessments designed for sex offenders may consider applying a general risk assessment tool to identify a broader set of criminogenic needs and to predict risk of general recidivism. Second, there is a need to evaluate policies and practices that allow for the use of professional discretion with sex offenders given that they reduce the predictive validity of the risk tool evaluated. The high rate of overrides for juvenile sex offenders and justification for their use go against best practices in corrections. For instance, overrides were often justified based on offense seriousness; however, focusing on evidence‐based criminogenic risk factors provides the best accuracy in predicting future offending. In this study, we call into question court policies that allow for overrides based on crime type or based on a practitioner's professional judgment concerning a juvenile's level of service needs. Last, agencies should consider validation research within their agency before full adoption of a general risk assessment tool to quell concerns about the use and accuracy of a tool for special populations like juvenile sex offenders.

Development and Validation of an Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool for Juveniles with a History of Sexual Offending

Development and Validation of an Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool for Juveniles with a History of Sexual Offending

Risk Factors of Female Intimate Partner and Non-Intimate Partner Homicides

The most alarming type of intimate partner violence is homicide. Violence risk assessment of intimate partner violent offenders is a common topic in police and prison contexts with the aim of preventing recidivism and fatal results. The purpose of this study was to whether men who kill their intimate partner (intimate partner homicide - IPH) present different risk factors from those who kill women outside of a relationship (non-intimate partner homicide - non-IPH). The crime characteristics of 30 attempted or completed IPHs that were sentenced in Catalonia (Spain) between 2004 and 2009 are described. Moreover, the risk factors of 21 completed IPHs and 20 non-IPHs were compared using the RisCanvi, an actuarial risk assessment tool used in the Catalan prison context to manage inmates. Results differences between the two types of offenders in the criminal role and recklessness, more prevalent among non-IPHs, which is consistent with research indicating that IPH offenders are similar to other homicide offenders. The difficulties faced seeking to assess and manage the risk of IPH are discussed.

The Static-99R predicts sexual and violent recidivism for individuals with low intellectual functioning

ABSTRACTA current debate is whether actuarial risk assessment tools predict sexual recidivism in sexual offenders with intellectual disabilities (SOIDs). Since intellectual functioning exists on a spectrum, the present study examined the predictive validity of the Static-99R across the range of intellectual functioning. The sample was comprised of 454 adult sexual offenders assessed at an outpatient clinic and followed for an average of 10 years. Offenders in the extremely low/borderline group had higher scores on the Static-99R than other offenders, largely due to their score on the detachment subscale of the Static-99R, but did not have significantly higher recidivism rates. Calibration analyses suggested that the expected and observed recidivism rates did not differ significantly. Intellectual functioning did not add incremental validity to the Static-99R. Further, there was no interaction between intellectual functioning and actuarial risk score. The results suggested that the Static-99R can be used across the range of intellectual functioning, albeit somewhat more cautiously for those at the lowest and highest end of the intellectual functioning distribution.

Assessing the Calibration of Actuarial Risk Scales

Assessing the predictive accuracy of actuarial risk assessment tools requires consideration of discrimination (the differences between recidivists and nonrecidivists) and calibration (the credibility of the recidivism rates associated with test scores or categories). Currently, there are no conventions for reporting calibration effect sizes for offender risk tools. This article explains one promising calibration effect size statistic (the Expected/Observed [E/O] index) and provides an illustrative example of how it can be calculated and interpreted. Briefly, the E/O index is the ratio of the expected number of recidivists to the observed number of recidivists. Guidance is provided for calculating the E/O index with fixed follow-up data as well as from survival data. This article also discusses alternative approaches to examining calibration and provides references to other studies using the E/O index to assess the calibration of offender risk scales.

The Structured Interview of Family Risk Assessment in Clinical Use: A Study with Parents of Juvenile Offenders in Detention

In the juvenile clinical forensic settings risk assessment, instruments that allow a dynamic understanding of the interaction between family risk and protective factors are needed.<0} This study aims to contribute to the validation of the Structured Interview of Family Risk Assessment (SIFAR) in juvenile clinical forensic practice. Using a quasi-experimental design, the effects of a family program on risk and protective family factors were assessed with SIFAR and the YLS/CMI. Non-parametric methods were used.<0}<0}<0} The participants were a convenience sample of 16 parents (8 from a control group and 8 from an experimental group) of detained adolescent male delinquents in Portuguese forensic facilities. The YLS/CMI as an actuarial risk assessment tool and SIFAR as a structured professional judgment toll were used. SIFAR and YLS/CMI showed the effects of the program in reducing the family risk on this sample and the usefulness of the complementary use of both risk assessment tools. The findings show that SIFAR is sensitive to changes in the family assessment risk, allowing the understanding of the family risk and protective factors changes and dynamics, being a suitable instrument for case management.

Professional Discretion and the Predictive Validity of a Juvenile Risk Assessment Instrument

The ability for professionals to override the results of an actuarial risk assessment tool is an essential part of effective correctional risk classification; however, little is known about how this important function affects the predictive validity of these tools. Using data from a statewide sample of juveniles from Ohio, this study examined the impact of professional adjustments on the predictive validity of a juvenile risk assessment instrument. This study found that the original and adjusted risk levels were significant predictors of recidivism, but the original risk levels were stronger predictors of recidivism than the adjusted risk levels that accounted for overrides.

A Minority Report for Social Work? The Predictive Risk Model (PRM) and the Tuituia Assessment Framework in addressing the needs of New Zealand's Vulnerable Children.

This article examines the viability of the Risk Predictor Model (RPM) and its counterpart the actuarial risk assessment (ARA) tool in the form of the Tuituia Assessment Framework to address child vulnerability in New Zealand. In doing so, it suggests that these types of risk-assessment tools fail to address issues of contingency and complexity at the heart of the relationship-based nature of social work practice. Such developments have considerable implications for the capacity to enhance critical reflexive practice skills, whilst the introduction of these risk tools is occurring at a time when the reflexive space is being eroded as a result of the increased regulation of practice and supervision. It is further asserted that the primary aim of such instruments is not so much to detect risk, but rather to foster professional conformity with these managerialist risk-management systems so prevalent in contemporary Western societies.

The Development and Validation of an Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool for the Prediction of First-Time Offending.

For prevention purposes, it is important that police officers can estimate the risk for delinquency among juveniles who were involved in a criminal offense, but not in the role of a suspect. In the present study, the Youth Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool for First-Time Offending (Y-ARAT-FO) was developed based solely on police records with the aim to enable Dutch police officers to predict the risk for first-time offending. For the construction of this initial screening instrument, an Exhaustive Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detector (Exhaustive CHAID) analysis was performed on a data set that was retrieved from the Dutch police system. The Y-ARAT-FO was developed on a sample of 1,368 juveniles and validated on a different sample of 886 juveniles showing moderate predictive accuracy in the validation sample (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = .728). The predictive accuracy of the Y-ARAT-FO was considered sufficient to justify its use as an initial screening instrument by the Dutch police.

Replicating the violence risk appraisal guide: a total forensic cohort study.

IntroductionThe performance of violence risk assessment instruments can be primarily investigated by analysing two psychometric properties: discrimination and calibration. Although many studies have examined the discrimination capacity of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and other actuarial risk assessment tools, few have evaluated how well calibrated these instruments are. The aim of the present investigation was to replicate the development study of the VRAG in Europe including measurements of discrimination and calibration.MethodUsing a prospective study design, we assessed a total cohort of violent offenders in the Zurich Canton of Switzerland using the VRAG prior to discharge from prisons, secure facilities, and outpatient clinics. Assessors adhered strictly to the assessment protocol set out in the instrument’s manual. After controlling for attrition, 206 offenders were followed in the community for a fixed period of 7 years. We used charges and convictions for subsequent violent offenses as the outcomes. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was conducted to measure discrimination, and Sanders’ decomposition of the Brier score as well as Bayesian credible intervals were calculated to measure calibration.ResultsThe discrimination of the VRAG’s risk bins was modest (area under the curve = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.63–0.81, p<0.05). However, the calibration of the tool was poor, with Sanders’ calibration score suggesting an average assessment error of 21% in the probabilistic estimates associated with each bin. The Bayesian credible intervals revealed that in five out of nine risk bins the intervals did not contain the expected risk rates.DiscussionMeasurement of the calibration validity of risk assessment instruments needs to be improved, as has been done with respect to discrimination. Additional replication studies that focus on the calibration of actuarial risk assessment instruments are needed. Meanwhile, we recommend caution when using the VRAG probabilistic risk estimates in practice.

De la prédiction à la compréhension : recension des dimensions psychologiques de la Statique-99

Although widely used in North America, actuarial risk assessment tools have been criticized for their inability to capture the causal dynamics leading to criminal recidivism. In this article, we present a conceptual framework for linking static, historical risk factors to the psychological vulnerabilities that are targeted in offender treatment. To illustrate this model, a literature review was conducted that identified the psychological dimensions that underlie the items of the Static-99, the most widely used actuarial scale for predicting sexual recidivism. Two key dimensions were identified: sexual criminality, indicative of sexual deviance and/or sexual preoccupation, and general criminality, indicative of antisocial traits and/or psychopathy.

Youth Offender Care Needs Assessment Tool (YO-CNAT): An actuarial risk assessment tool for predicting problematic child-rearing situations in juvenile offenders on the basis of police records.

In the juvenile justice system, much attention is paid to estimating the risk for recidivism among juvenile offenders. However, it is also important to estimate the risk for problematic child-rearing situations (care needs) in juvenile offenders, because these problems are not always related to recidivism. In the present study, an actuarial care needs assessment tool for juvenile offenders, the Youth Offender Care Needs Assessment Tool (YO-CNAT), was developed to predict the probability of (a) a future supervision order imposed by the child welfare agency, (b) a future entitlement to care indicated by the youth care agency, and (c) future incidents involving child abuse, domestic violence, and/or sexual norm trespassing behavior at the juvenile's address. The YO-CNAT has been developed for use by the police and is based solely on information available in police registration systems. It is designed to assist a police officer without clinical expertise in making a quick assessment of the risk for problematic child-rearing situations. The YO-CNAT was developed on a sample of 1,955 juvenile offenders and was validated on another sample of 2,045 juvenile offenders. The predictive validity (area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve) scores ranged between .70 (for predicting future entitlement to care) and .75 (for predicting future worrisome incidents at the juvenile's address); therefore, the predictive accuracy of the test scores of the YO-CNAT was sufficient to justify its use as a screening instrument for the police in deciding to refer a juvenile offender to the youth care agency for further assessment into care needs.

The Role of Police Risk Assessments in Judicial Decisions Regarding Domestic Violence Offenses in Israel

Increasing awareness to the issue of domestic violence offenses in Israeli society has led to changes in legislation and enforcement, with an additional degree of severity attributed to domestic violence. These changes have also led the Israel Police to develop an actuarial risk assessment tool to improve the validity of decision-making processes regarding domestic violence. The purpose of this tool was to empower police investigators to assess information from domestic violence complaints, and to derive the best recommended action from that information. Thus, the tool results in uniformity of attitude between various professionals in the law-enforcement system towards domestic violence. To test whether this tool indeed increases uniformity of attitude between various law-enforcement professionals, towards the risk level of the assaulting partner, this study examined all domestic violence offense cases opened in a large city in the south of Israel and analyzed a small sample of protocols from domestic violence investigations that ended with conviction. The study data show that both in requests for remand extension and in penalty judgment decisions, the legal system tends to ignore the risk assessment score provided by the police tool. These data indicate that Israeli legal discourse tends to overlook police risk assessments of domestic violence offenders, which in theory could increase the probability of “false negative” errors in predicting the risk level of an offender. In turn, this may result in additional assaults by violent partners against their victims.

Balancing Risk and Protective Factors: How Do Social Workers and Social Work Managers Analyse Referrals that May Indicate Children Are at Risk of Significant Harm

This paper is based upon the findings of a qualitative study of how child protection social workers and social work managers analyse referrals. The study involved interviews with eighteen participants based on four vignettes of children potentially at risk of emotional, physical or sexual abuse or neglect. Three themes in particular are discussed—the balancing of risk, protective and resilience factors; the use of family history and the child's wider circumstances; and ‘known’ and ‘unknown’ unknowns (‘missing information’). These findings are considered in relation to the potential use of actuarial risk assessment tools or Structured Decisions Making tools in child protection social work. The first of two conclusions is that when given adequate space and time the participants tended to be to be reflective and analytical, but that difficulties remained in their ability to analyse the referrals, in particular with the identification of protective or resilience factors and in the balancing of risk and protective or resilience factors in relation to individual children. The second conclusion is that social workers and managers may benefit from assistance in identifying protective and resilience factors (and distinguishing between protective factors and resilience factors) in particular and this may offer a focus for the introduction of structured tools as a way to support current practice rather than to replace it