Actual Vote Research Articles

Comparison of different thermal comfort models: mosque and church cases

The abbreviated summary is below: Many thermal comfort models are based on the subjective perception of the users in the buildings. The models are created within some limitations and scope. This study aims to contribute to the development of thermal comfort models by comparing the widely used and being developed thermal comfort models with users’ actual votes in natural settings. Thermal comfort models were evaluated on the most used religious buildings cases, and suggestions were made for the design and use of religious buildings. For these purposes, thermal comfort measurements were conducted at different zones of prayer areas in churches and mosques in Karlsruhe, Germany. After the events with high participation, a thermal sensation survey was performed on the users. The data were analyzed statistically. According to the results, there are differences between comfort models according to user perception. However, the results of aPMV and ATHB models are closer to user perception than PMV model.

Seven Decades of Gender Differences in German Voting Behavior

This article describes long-term changes in gender differences in voting behavior in Germany, using a globally unique data source: information from real ballots. Compared with self-reports in available surveys, actual votes counted by gender and age groups have three advantages: neither representativeness issues nor social desirability bias, a huge sample, and coverage of seven decades, beginning in 1953. Besides party-specific voting patterns, I analyze summary measures for gender dissimilarities, both overall and separated by age groups. The modern gender gap—women voting more left-wing than men—first appeared in Germany in the 2017 election, surprisingly late compared with previous international research. The speed and structure with which the modern gender gap grew suggest that it is due to period effects rather than cohort effects. The modern gender gap differs by age group and, in post-World War II Germany, women and men have never been as divided about politics as the youngest voters in 2021. These findings partly contrast with previous survey-based results. To explore whether this contrast stems from the smaller sample sizes of previous studies or gendered survey bias (e.g., more social desirability bias among women), I compare results from real ballots with estimates from two survey data sources. Findings suggest that large surveys might provide reasonable estimates at the aggregate level but might overestimate the gender gap for more radical parties such as the AfD (Alternative for Germany).

Associative issue ownership in a highly fragmented multiparty context: The Netherlands (2021)

Associative issue ownership (AIO) has proven its value in describing issue competition and explaining voting behavior. Yet, it is unclear whether and to what extent AIO also differentiates parties and influences vote choice in highly fragmented, multiparty systems. In such a context, parties must differentiate from many electoral competitors, which makes AIO worth pursuing. At the same time, obtaining unequivocal ownership may be a very difficult endeavor in the face of so many rivals. This paper aims to assess these questions empirically by employing the Dutch Parliamentary Election Study 2021 on a system with 17 elected parties (ENPP = 8). At the aggregate level, we find unequivocal issue ownership for 4 of the 14 issues under study. AIO of most other issues is contested, either by parties with very similar policy positions (within-block competition) or by parties with opposing positions (between-block competition). A final set of issues remain unclaimed. At the individual level, perceptions of issue ownership explain the composition of voters’ party consideration sets (pre-elections) and their actual vote choice (post-elections). These impacts are stronger when voters associate the party with an issue they find important. We conclude that AIO perceptions are an important factor to consider when studying party dynamics and voting behavior in a context of highly fragmented multipartyism.

Effects of an issue-based microtargeting campaign: A small-scale field experiment in a multi-party setting

Political microtargeting is the subject of heated societal debate but not much is known about its effects, especially in non-US contexts. Microtargeting, used by political actors to send citizens tailored messages, could have the potential to overcome barriers that make generic political messages less effective. In this article, we present a small-scale field experiment, which serves as a case study to illustrate how microtargeting’s effects on citizens could be measured. The field experiment showed that receiving a microtargeted message via postal mail increased likelihood to vote for the microtargeting party, but this increase did not translate into actual votes.

Simulation of Sample Determination Quick Count Legislative Elections In Bengkulu City

In this research illustrates the simulation of quick count of sampling for the year 2014 Legislative Election in Bengkulu City, which has a data acquisition result for 589 TPS. The problem in this research is how to know the sample size and the right sampling method for Legislative Election in Bengkulu City on Year 2014. The purpose of this research is to know the sample size and the quick count calculation sampling method that can predict the actual vote result for Legislative Election. The method used in the calculation of fast calculation consists of three methods, simple random sampling, cluster random sampling and multistage random sampling. From the population data of 589 polling stations (TPS) into the population, the sample size was taken as much as 120 TPS or about 20% of the population, based on the results of calculations for sample sizes in a limited population. After the sample was selected, a sample simulation of 100 times for each method and simulation results was tested for compatibility with the chi-squared test. Based on the test results, it can be concluded that for sample size 120 TPS taken by simple random sampling method, cluster random sampling or multistage random sampling can predict the actual vote result in Legislative Election Year 2014 in Bengkulu with margin of error 5%. For efficiency consideration simple random sampling method can be selected.

Rapid changes in public perception toward a conservation initiative

AbstractRapid, widespread changes in public perceptions and behaviors have the potential to influence conservation outcomes. However, few studies have documented whether and how such shifts occur throughout the span of a conservation initiative. We examined the 2020 ballot initiative to reintroduce wolves into Colorado, which passed with less support than prior surveys had estimated. We conducted a postelection survey of Colorado residents using the same methods as our preelection survey to compare responses between surveys and to official election results. Reported voting in favor of wolf reintroduction in the postelection survey decreased in comparison to voting intentions shared in the preelection survey, but not enough to reflect the actual vote. While bias from survey methods and/or sampling contributed to differences, we also found evidence that public perception changed. Specifically, beliefs about the potential for negative impacts of wolves increased, while beliefs about the potential for positive impacts of wolves decreased. Our findings highlight the need to conduct longitudinal monitoring of public perception given perceptions may be highly fluid as different entities attempt to sway voters. In addition, to better understand evolving perceptions, survey methods and sampling need to be improved.

Using Facebook data to predict the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

We use 19 billion likes on the posts of top 2000 U.S. fan pages on Facebook from 2015 to 2016 to measure the dynamic ideological positions for politicians, news outlets, and users at the national and state levels. We then use these measures to derive support rates for 2016 presidential candidates in all 50 states, to predict the election, and to compare them with state-level polls and actual vote shares. We find that: (1) Assuming that users vote for candidates closer to their own ideological positions, support rates calculated using Facebook predict that Trump will win the electoral college vote while Clinton will win the popular vote. (2) State-level Facebook support rates track state-level polling averages and pass the cointegration test, showing two time series share similar trends. (3) Compared with actual vote shares, polls generally have smaller margin of errors, but polls also often overestimate Clinton’s support in right-leaning states. Overall, we provide a method to forecast elections at low cost, in real time, and based on passively revealed preference and little researcher discretion.

Banning burkas and niqabs? Exploring perceptions of bias in media coverage of Islam and Muslims in Switzerland and their relation to people’s voting intention concerning the burka-initiative

In Switzerland, Islam and Muslims are repeatedly the subject of political debates and, thus, of media reporting. While content analyses show a certain bias in Western media coverage of Islam and Muslims, relatively little is known about the audience’s perspective on media bias in this context. Using data from an online survey of the Swiss population (n = 976), this study examines people’s perceptions of bias in the media coverage of Islam and Muslims in Switzerland and how it relates to their intention to vote on the popular initiative “Yes to a veil ban”. The study was conducted in March 2019, two years before the actual vote took place on 7 March 2021. The results show that the majority of the Swiss non-Muslim population perceives the reporting as distorted. In the study’s investigation of media bias perceptions, attitudes towards Islam and Muslims, political orientation and personal contact with Muslims proved to be the most relevant influencing factors. By contrast, exposure to political information via traditional news media and social media was not associated with bias perceptions. Finally, a stronger perception that the media understate certain problems related to Islam and Muslims in Switzerland was positively related to people’s intention to vote for a national ban on wearing burkas or niqabs in public.

Indoor thermal environment evaluation of postpartum patients in a tertiary level maternity in Romania during summer

The assessment of thermal comfort for patients admitted in hospitals is a mandatory prerequisite meant to ensure the improved wellbeing and support of healing. Our study focused on postpartum women, a particular category of patients, given that they are healthy individuals admitted in hospitals for a physiologic process. We investigated the indoor thermal comfort of 61 early term postpartum breastfeeding patients during the summer. Our purpose was to establish whether the predicted mean vote can accurately predict the actual mean vote, and to evaluate individual and obstetric related factors that have potential impact on the actual mean vote in these patients. Results obtained from objective measurements of the indoor thermal environment complete the picture of a slightly warm environment. Data analysis showed a significant difference (p < 0.001) between the predicted and actual mean votes. There were no significant differences in the subjective evaluation in relation to the route of delivery (p = 0.462). We documented a significant difference in the thermal sensation assessment of patients between age groups and body mass index (BMI) categories (p = 0.002, respectively, p = 0.05). Our study shows that factors like age and BMI should be taken into consideration when adjusting thermal comfort parameters in this category of patients.

Spatial environment design and comfort simulation of high-latitude building bottom based on geological conditions

In order to solve the situation that the temperature in the high-latitude area is large and the space comfort of the bottom of the building is poor, the bottom space environment of the high-latitude building based on geological conditions is designed, and the comfort of the space environment is simulated. The numerical simulation technology is used to simulate the temperature information of the bottom space of the building, and the temperature, velocity, and humidity fields of the space air at the bottom of the building affected by the geological conditions are obtained. Based on the characteristics of the high-latitude space environment, the design is applied to the single-core bottom space and the multi-core bottom space. The space environment at the bottom of the high-latitude building is divided into functional partitions of the bottom space; the outdoor open space thermal comfort model of Actual Sensation Vote (ASV) is used to simulate the wind environment, radiation distribution, temperature, and humidity distribution and simulate the comfort of the space environment at the bottom of the building. The analysis of the experimental results shows that the weather condition at 8:00 am is the most comfortable time for human body to feel. At this time, the thermal feeling in most areas of the indoor space is moderate, which shows that the method can accurately simulate the comfort of the space environment at the bottom of the building from the perspective of radiation distribution, wind speed distribution, and thermal comfort distribution, and the designed space environment function layout at the bottom of the building is reasonable.

Field Study on Adaptive Thermal Comfort in Coastal Building in China

Liu, J.; Yu, W., and Cai, T., 2020. Field study on adaptive thermal comfort in coastal building in China. In: Liu, X. and Zhao, L. (eds.), Today's Modern Coastal Society: Technical and Sociological Aspects of Coastal Research. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 111, pp. 226–230. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.Different from inland areas, coastal areas are usually characterized by greater wind speed, relative humidity, and solar radiation levels. The indoor thermal environment of coastal buildings attracts more attention as a result. A field investigation on winter indoor thermal condition and thermal comfort was conducted in coastal buildings in Haikou, China. The average indoor air temperature was 21.05 ± 2.77° C during the survey period. And 65.2% of temperature datasets were within winter comfort band in American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers 55 Standard. The influences of relative humidity and air speed were insignificant. The thermal neutral temperature and acceptable temperature band for 90% of participants were 22.97° C and 19.84–26.10° C, respectively. Subjects would like a warmer thermal environment in winter with preferred temperature of 25.44° C. It indicates that thermal neutrality sometimes deviates from desired thermal environment. Adjusting clothes was observed to be a predominant adaptive action, helping subjects adapt to the variations in ambient thermal environment. In addition, the comprehensive impacts of adaptations on thermal comfort were also validated by applying cross analysis between thermal acceptability and Actual Mean Vote, thermal preference. The results obtained in present study provide reference on indoor thermal environment optimization for coastal buildings in tropical island region.

Filibuster Change and Judicial Appointments

In this article, we consider the effects of filibuster change on judicial appointments, judicial voting, and opinion drafting. The filibuster effectively empowers a minority of 41 senators by requiring 60 votes to break off debate on a nomination. We develop a game‐theoretic model that explains that the elimination of the filibuster changed the relevant “pivotal senator,” whose support was necessary to secure a nomination. Freed of the power of the minority of senators, presidents ought to exercise freer rein in naming judicial nominees closer to their preferred ideology. Moreover, sitting judges who seek elevation to a higher court ought to alter their “signal” that they would be good candidates to match the preferences of the newly relevant pivotal senator. To test our hypotheses empirically, we use the 2013 elimination of the filibuster in the U.S. Senate for lower federal court judicial nominations as an exogenous shock. We explore how the change in the filibuster rule affected the characteristics of judges President Obama nominated to the federal courts. We find statistically significant shifts in the background characteristics of judges confirmed to the federal courts of appeals after the elimination of the filibuster. Compared to the earlier Obama appointees, these judges were more likely to be female, slightly younger, and to have previously clerked for a liberal judges, but less likely to be nonwhite. In addition, we find that there was a statistically significant increase in the confirmation of judges with liberal ideologies, as measured by their common space campaign finance scores. These liberal ideologies mapped onto actual votes in politically charged cases. Compared to Obama judges confirmed before the rule change, these judges were more likely to cast pro‐choice votes in abortion cases and anti‐death penalty votes in death penalty cases. We also find evidence that the elimination of the filibuster had a polarizing effect on sitting federal district judges, especially those with a greater chance of promotion to the courts of appeals. Using computational content analysis, we find that after the change in the filibuster rule, Democratic judges were more likely to use politically charged words signaling their very liberal ideological positions in abortion opinions and Republican judges were more likely to use words signaling their conservative views. These findings are useful in assessing the desirability of restoring the judicial filibuster, as well in assessing the debate over the retention of the legislative filibuster.

Plans Versus Political Priorities

Problem, research strategy, and findings Local elected officials play a leadership role in setting plan directions and can jeopardize implementation if they are not committed to plan goals. In this research, we apply topic modeling, semantic networks, and sentiment analyses to Calgary’s (Canada) plans and candidates’ social media communications in the 2017 Calgary municipal election to assess alignments or divergences between plans’ and candidates’ priorities. Though the mayor, ward representatives, incumbents, and challengers prioritized different topics, we find overall support for transit infrastructure, development, and improving the downtown and the municipal tax base. However, candidates showed little interest in environmental issues, growth management, and regional cooperation, which are important plan goals that may not be addressed. The methodology has limitations: Using social media posts underrepresents the views of some candidates; text data processing may miss metaphorical phrases; elected officials’ priorities during campaigns may not determine their actual votes once in office; and this cross-sectional analysis does not capture the ever-changing relations between officials’ priorities, plan-making, and implementation. Takeaway for practice Candidates focused mainly on transit and taxes to the detriment of regional and environmental issues (energy, watershed, and growth management), revealing the incoming municipal administration’s priorities and its potential blind spots. Planners may use this methodology to analyze large text data from both online and offline sources, understand local implementation barriers, explain shifts in municipal policy directions, and engage elected officials to build support for important plan components.

Thermal comfort in university classrooms: An experimental study in the tropics

Thermal comfort is a paramount objective in university classrooms when the aim is to maximise learning and productivity performance. The challenge to achieve thermal comfort in classrooms in the tropics is even more significant due to the extreme weather conditions and the elevated internal and external heat gains. This study relies on thermal comfort responses from 429 questionnaires collected from December 2017 to January 2018 in three geographic regions in Ecuador. The study compares real thermal sensation and predicted models. The cities and its respective Köppen climate classification are Quito (Cfb), Guayaquil (Aw) and Tena (Af). Several free-running and air-conditioned classrooms were part of the sample in this study. Despite the differences in weather, the building designs and the properties, in terms of materials, are very similar. The Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) and the adaptive methods were used for comparison with actual votes through simple linear regression analysis. Griffiths neutral temperature and the one estimated from regression produce similar results. The neutral temperatures from TSV in Quito, Guayaquil, and Tena were 21.8 °C, 26.3 °C and 26.9 °C respectively. They were aligned to the ones reported in previous studies for locations with similar climate zones. On the other hand, for air-conditioned environments, the PMV model underestimated the occupants' satisfaction with the indoor conditions. Overall, high levels of comfort were observed in free-running classrooms in Quito, regardless of the lower air temperature. Whereas students' preferences in classrooms located in hot-humid climates mechanically conditioned are towards colder environments.

With or against their region? Multiple-mandate holders in the Swiss parliament, 1985–2018

ABSTRACT Regional and local units try to influence national decision-making in various ways. This paper analyses one particular channel of subnational influence: multiple-mandate holders. These are members of the national Parliament (MPs) who at the same time hold an elected office at regional or local level. Focusing on Switzerland, we first assess the extent of this phenomenon over time and subnational space. We then test for its impact on MPs’ actual vote choices, analyzing whether an MP’s subnational loyalty outweighs party pressure on policy proposals submitted by a Swiss canton. Our analyses draw on a new, original dataset covering all ca. 1,000 Swiss MPs between 1985 and 2018. In the main, we find that it is rather territorial homophily – the congruence of constituency and submitting canton – than holding dual mandates that plays a role when it comes to an individual MP’s vote decision. However, territorial interests are indeed capable of outweighing partisan ties.

Berkeley thermal comfort models: Comparison to people votes and indications for user-centric HVAC strategies in car cabins

New heating and cooling strategies can be adopted in a smart way to bring thermal comfort while reducing energy requirements. UCB thermal sensation and comfort models can be viewed as an alternative to the PMV standard to investigate frugal and local strategies for namely electric vehicles. In the present investigation, people votes are recorded while they were experiencing transient and quasi-homogeneous scenarios in cool and warm automotive-like environments and compared to the UCB Zhang model predictions. Quite good qualitative agreements are found between model predictions and actual votes particularly in warm environments. On the strength of these results, a parametric investigation is carried out and interesting trends about thermal preferences are brought to light for each body part. It is observed that body parts have, depending on the global thermal ambiance, different expectations in terms of thermal preferences. For instance, one can mention that the pelvis should only be cooled slightly even in extreme hot environments, otherwise the comfort is strongly deteriorated. Based on this investigation body parts that have to be focused in priority have been identified for different global thermal ambiances (very cold So=−4, cold So=−2, neutral So=0, warm So=2 and very hot So=4) and suggestions for comfort-oriented and energy saving-oriented strategies have been proposed.

Factors Affecting Thermal Comfort of Elementary Schools’ Students in Makassar

The article aims to analyze the most affecting thermal environmental factors on students’ thermal comfort in elementary schools. The questionnaire has been collected from 1,111 students. The one-minute interval of data measurements was carried out in the 33 classrooms at six primary schools in Makassar. Environmental data involved measurements of air temperature, globe temperature, air velocity, and relative humidity. Students wrote down their personal data and their response to the thermal environments of classrooms in the questionnaire sheets. The results show that the most affecting factor of thermal comfort of students is operative temperature (To). Based on the students’ thermal sensation votes, the operative temperature ranges from 29.1 to 30.0 °C is recommended to provide a comfortable condition for students to learn more successfully in the naturally ventilated primary schools’ classrooms. This result is slightly lower than the neutral temperature obtained from the regression between actual votes and the operative temperature, which was 30.2 °C. The results agree with the neutral temperature calculated using the revised Humphreys adaptive model which give the result of 29.4 °C. The second variable that has a significant effect on the students’ thermal comfort is air velocity. The students felt comfortable at air velocity at about 0.25 m/s and also at air velocity more in the ranges of 1.00 to around 1.50 m/s.

On the probability ratio index as a measure of electoral competition

This paper deals with the fundamental issue of quantifying the degree of competitiveness underlying an election in a society. That is, given the vote shares of competing political parties in the election one needs to arrive at a representative metric of electoral competition. The vote share of a party represents its influence on the outcome of the election. A summary measure of differences of such influences across parties, aggregated in an unambiguous way, is an index of electoral competitiveness. The literature contains several such indices. Implicit under the choice of an index is a set of properties that the index satisfies. A highly attractive feature of the probability ratio index we suggest in this article, as a summary measure of electoral competition, is its suitability for making comparisons of competitiveness across elections with different number of parties. The probability ratio index is simply the ratio between the probabilities that the two voters drawn at random with (without) replacement have voted for different parties under actual vote shares across the competing parties and under equal vote shares across them. The comparability feature of the probability ratio index can be maintained without sacrificing any nice characteristic expected from an electoral competition measure. The probability ratio index is inversely related to the well-known Herfindahl–Hirschman concentration index that indicates dominance of large parties, directly related to the fractionalization index, which indicates how vote shares are split among the parties, and also inversely related to the squared coefficient of variation, a highly popular measure of inequality. It is argued explicitly how the new index can be applied to measure competitiveness for true data. Simple examples are used to demonstrate why probability ratio index has a comparative advantage over some other well-known indices, particularly, in terms of cross-election comparability.

The influence of acclimatization, age and gender-related differences on thermal perception in university buildings: Case studies in Scotland and England

The higher education sector in the UK is responsible for large amount of the country's energy consumption. Space heating, which is the largest and most expensive part of the energy used in the UK educational buildings is a potential target for improving energy efficiency. However, the role of thermal comfort in students' productivity in academic environments cannot be overlooked. Considering the prevalence of two different climatic conditions in Northern and Southern/Midland regions of the UK, this study investigated thermal comfort in two university campuses in Scotland and England. environmental measurements combined with a simultaneous questionnaire survey were conducted in eight university buildings in Edinburgh and Coventry. The field study was carried out during the academic year of 2017-18 on 3507 students. The results confirmed influence of students' acclimatization, showing a warmer than neutral mean Thermal Sensation Vote (TSV) and cooler thermal preference in Edinburgh than Coventry. The higher acceptable temperature in Coventry (23.5 °C) than Edinburgh (22.1 °C) reinforced the results on the influence of climatic adaptation. Thermal acceptability was examined in a direct (analysing the actual votes on thermal acceptability) and an indirect approach (considering the TSV between −1 and 1 as acceptable). The indirect approach was shown to be a better predictor of the thermal acceptability as this method extends beyond the acceptable range suggested by the direct method. Thermal perceptions of females were shown to be colder than males in university classrooms. However, no statistically significant difference was observed in the thermal comfort of different age groups.

Adaptive thermal comfort of naturally ventilated classrooms of elementary schools in the tropics

Thermal comfort is one of the very important factors in enhancing the human quality of life, including students who spend a lot of times learning in schools. This article was intended to analyze the students’ adaptive thermal comfort in naturally ventilated classrooms of the elementary schools in the tropical city of Makassar. The study analyzed data gathered from 33 surveyed classrooms in six primary schools. The recorded data consisted of the personal and adaptive behavior of 1,111 students, and the thermal environments of the classrooms. At the same time, students filled out the questionnaires asking their thermal sensation, comfort level, and thermal preferences against the classrooms’ thermal environments. The results of measurements showed that the indoor mean air temperature, air humidity, and air velocity were 30.4 °C, 68%, and 0.1 m/s, respectively. They indicated that the classrooms had the hot temperature, high humidity, and low air velocity. The calculated PMV based on these parameters showed that about 90% of students felt either warm (+2) or hot (+3). The PMV overestimated the actual students’ thermal comfort where more than 85% of students voted slightly cool (-1), neutral (0), and slightly warm (+1). In addition, the neutral temperature predicted by PMV was 25.5 °C. This neutral temperature was very low in comparison to 30.2 °C calculated by using thermal sensation vote (TSV). These suggested that students of elementary schools in the tropic were tolerant to the hot environment. The use of the adaptive models to calculate the neutral temperature of students presented similar results gathered from actual votes. Therefore, the adaptive model became the best method to explain the thermal comfort of students in the elementary schools in the tropics.